Tonga: One Year On

DAVID SPRING PT COLUMNIST Sydney, Australia

IN 2014, TONGA was one of the few countries in the world who were creating new land. The Hunga-Tonga-HungaHa'apai volcano lava flows were forming an island, 50km north west of Nuku’alofa, the capital. Just 7 years later, that island is all but gone, obliterated by an eruption on a scale that is experienced around the world only every 12 years. After rumbling on and off for a month, on 15 January 2022 the volcano erupted explosively. By 18 January, the Prime Minister of Tonga declared a state of emergency. The Tongan Government and Tongan Red Cross Society (TRCS) requested international assistance.

The nature of the damage incurred across Tonga’s islands was specific to the natural hazards. Firstly, the volcanic seismic activity damaged the international undersea fibreoptic telecommunications cable between Fiji and Tonga. This hampered information flow in the hours and days that followed. Seismic activity and the resulting tsunami also damaged about 600 residential and non-residential buildings, including nearly every official government building in Nuku’alofa. The volcanic ashfall (15-30mm thick) contaminated water supplies, ruined crops, livestock and affected fisheries and forestry. The result was significant damage to nearly all infrastructure on the west coast of Tongatapu, the Ha’apai island group and the west coast of ‘Eua. Early situation reports indicated that approximately 85,000 people were affected, which is 84% of Tonga’s total population. Sadly, three lives were lost.

The initial damage estimate was USD 90.4m . Later estimates doubled that to USD182 million or 36.4% of Tonga’s GDP. Damage to the internet cable interrupted not only communications but also financial and remittance flows.

In the weeks following this multi-faceted disaster, donors made commitments worth approx. USD 31m. France, China, Fiji and UK sent emergency supplies and humanitarian aid. These figures don’t include the generous and tireless efforts of NGOs and their supporters around the world. It seems that the initial funds provided to Tonga have been primarily used to simply keep the country running. Along with emergency funding from the IMF, the financing supported balance of payments, clean up and recovery efforts, emergency spending on health care and social protection as well as various ongoing reforms.

In numerous instances, the subsequent recovery funding (beyond the initial USD 31m) has been channelled through existing projects and programs. An additional $US10m was approved for the World Bank’s Tonga Safe and Resilient Schools Project, to continue to improve the resilience of school buildings. The additional funding will fund the reconstruction (to improved resilience standards) of up to 30 school buildings at 12 schools.

The Tonga Climate Resilient Transport Project was signed up on 31 January 2022, just after this disaster event. There is provision within the project for funding a “Contingent Emergency Response” in the event of an eligible crisis, as needed.

The Australian government provided a further AUD 16m of non-specific funding, accompanied by a delivery of 54,990 Pfizer vaccines , to serve the needs aligned with a plan developed by the Tongan government partners’ Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami Disaster Recovery and Resilience Building Plan 2022-25. Over the past five years, Tonga has faced a string of disasters: Tropical Cyclone (TC) Gita in 2018, TC Harold in 2020 and the damage to the undersea cable in 2019. According to the IMF, Tonga’s fiscal management was quite astute following these three shocks, and a macroeconomic policy buffer was created. This helped it then weather the effects of the pandemic, despite considerable economic losses (GDP contracted 2.7% in FY2021). If anything, this latest disaster should reinforce to Tonga’s government that they are on the right economic track, by continuing the focus on enhancing climate resilience and nurturing the private sector.

As we see with the donor reaction to this event, the funding modalities for disaster funding are changing. Over the past 10-15 years, when disasters have struck Pacific countries, recovery projects have been launched. Such was the case for TC Pam which struck Vanuatu in 2015, TC Winston (Fiji, 2016), even TC Gita in 2018 – multilateral banks used PostDisaster Needs Assessments as the basis for scoping loan and grant ‘recovery’ projects. As anyone with a mortgage knows, when your blows down, it’s no joy to have to take out a larger mortgage to rebuild it. If recovery funding can be built into new projects from the start, the financial risks of such borrowings can be considered without the pressure of emergencies. Opportunities to assist with initial recovery efforts are significant for local firms and firms already operating on the ground. Mobilising internationally can be very challenging in the aftermath of an event, making it unusual. It is usually only done through bilateral/military agreements, which excludes contractors except in rare circumstances.

It is only a matter of time before another disaster impacts Tonga. Every effort going in now to improve its infrastructure and economic resilience will help.