Market Movers and Shakers

Market Matters

By Vic Bozar th

How Does the PCGS Price Guide Determine a Value? Part One: The Mechanics

Being able to easily quantify, record, and track information is essential to any modern business. Despite the fact that many still think numismatics is nothing more than a hobby, the number of million-dollar-plus coins that have sold in the last year alone makes one beg to differ! The rare coin business is no longer the quaint hobby it once was considered.

Information systems have had a lot to do with our evolution. Today dealers have the ability to offer an authenticated and professionally graded product via the internet. That being said, the information to learn about and quantify these products has never been more important. The responsibility of the PCGS Price Guide Team is to keep the values as current as possible. Fortunately, information about coins is constantly expanding. Their corresponding values change depending on many factors. Most of these factors we refer to as “the market.”

Having been an active dealer for decades, I find there is almost always a “play/pass” number in my head for a frequently traded item. For example, if you know you can readily sell an item for $500, even conservative dealers would pay $425. More aggressive market makers might make a $475 to $515 market. Sure, you as a collector would like to buy the item for $500, but if you want to handpick a pretty coin, you will probably have to pay $575 to $600 after the dealer has shipped the coin securely and taken a profit. Granted, this is for a readily traded item that has a pretty definitive market.

Rare coins are a different animal. When a coin trades only a couple times each decade, how can one determine the market on that item? Historical records offer some insight, but depending on the date of the sale, how relevant is the data? Price data is good if timely, but depending on the market conditions at the point of sale the pertinence of the data might be weighted differently.

Getting back to the nuts and bolts of coin pricing, let’s first take a look at the PCGS numbering system. Most PCGSgraded coins have a PCGS coin number followed by a decimal point followed by the numerical grade on the front of each holder. The PCGS coin number is most often a four-, five-, or six-digit number so that every possible date and denomination combination can be covered.

The PCGS coin numbering system is very straightforward. Starting with #0002, the original four-digit PCGS numbering system covered everything listed in the 1985 A Guide Book of United States Coins, including colonials, territorials, and commemoratives. This simple numbering system progressively numbers U.S. coin issues by the smallest denomination (our early half cents) and first date of issue (1793 for half cents).

In a nutshell, the PCGS numbering system is pretty easy to figure out. It progresses through the copper denominations with a brief interruption for trimes into the nickel denominations. All of the nickel composition denominations are covered before the numbering system and start with the silver half dimes continuing through U.S. silver (or clad) dollars. Classic gold issues follow all the copper, nickel, and silver composition

The PCGS numbering system, reflected on the labels of encapsulated PCGS coins, is a major component to determining the value of a coin. Courtesy of PCGS.

coins, but for the silver and gold commemorative issues near the end of the list.

A very basic order breakdown of the PCGS numbering system follows: Colonials through Proof 2 Cents #0002 to #3656 Trimes #3664 to #3724 Three Cent Nickels to Jeff erson Nickels #3730 to #4238 Silver Issues Half Dimes through Peace Dollars #4250 to #7379 Gold Commemoratives #7443 to #7487 Gold Issues Gold Dollars through Proof Saint-Gaudens $20 #7501 to #9212 Silver Commemoratives #9220 to #9449

Some of the additions to the PCGS numbering system have included the addition of a “9” to the front of the four-digit Morgan Dollar proofl ike number. For example, a frosty Mint State 1880-S Morgan Dollar is PCGS coin number 7118, an 1880-S Proofl ike Morgan Dollar is coin number 7119, and the PCGS coin number for a 1880-S DMPL Morgan Dollar is 97119.

Many of the classic proof issues had both cameo and deep cameo designations added to the existing PCGS fourdigit number once those categories of grading were off ered. For example, an 1880 Liberty Seated Quarter in proof is PCGS number 5581. Th e proof cameo and proof deep cameo numbers for the date are 85581 and 95581, respectively. For the most part, classic cameo and deep cameo U.S. proof coins are designated with this additional “8” or “9” to the front of the existing PCGS proof coin number for the date.

Th e bottom line of the PCGS coin holder insert also contains a seven- or eight-digit serial number unique to that particular coin. Th e PCGS coin serial number is one of the most important security features for PCGS coins. Th e ability to track PCGS coins with their PCGS coin number is tantamount to both security as well as providing amazing price information available from any public sale.

Th e PCGS Certifi cation Verifi cation website is an amazing tool that allows anyone to verify the authenticity of their PCGS coin by entering the PCGS certifi cation or serial number. PCGS Certifi cation Verifi cation also lists any public auction sales of that particular coin in the last couple of decades.

Th e simple digitized information on the bottom of a PCGS coin holder allows the dealer and collector to access tremendous amounts of free information and PCGS updates on a continual basis. Not only does PCGS Certifi cation Verifi cation allow you to verify your particular coin, but the PCGS Price Guide, PCGS Population Report, and PCGS Coinfacts are all driven by the PCGS coin number.

With a simple four- to six-digit number, you can access all the up-to-date information available on your coins. Th e information is there, you just have to fi nd it!

Vic Bozarth is a familiar face on the bourse fl oor to many who have attended coin shows over the last fi ve decades. He’s a self-described “coin weenie” who has attended more than 1,000 shows and vast experience both buying and selling many of the fi nest PCGS coins. His numismatic knowledge as a dealer and collector provides a unique perspective on our industry.

Market Movers & Shakers

By Jaime Hernandez

Th e 2000-S New Hampshire Proof Silver Washington State Quarter is climbing the charts as a top gainer, and it’s no surprise – the 50 State Quarters series from which this issue hails was one of the most popular U.S. Mint coin programs of all time. Courtesy of PCGS TrueView. Th e 1995 Lincoln Cent graded PCGS MS68RD is in hot demand by PCGS Set Registry collectors. Courtesy PCGS TrueView.

Th e modern coin market has been extremely healthy in the past year. We recently reviewed the PCGS's U.S. Price Changes – Top 10 Gainers and Losers list for the past year to try and get a gauge for the modern coin market, and these are the top 15 coins that performed the best. Overall, it represents a good mixture of diff erent denominations. A few Lincoln Cents were the top gainers, as well as a Roosevelt Dime, some Washington Quarters, a Kennedy Half Dollar, an Eisenhower Dollar, and even some bullion issues made it on the Top Gainers list.

Because of space limitations, we won’t discuss every coin on the Top Gainers list. However, we will mention a few of the highlights, including a stellar 1995 Lincoln Cent graded PCGS MS68RD. In March 2020, this coin had a PCGS Price Guide listing of $50 in MS68RD. Th at same coin in an identical grade today has a retail price of $185. Th at’s a 270% increase in just two years!

What’s so special about a 1995 Lincoln Cent? I will summarize in three words: PCGS Set Registry. Although the U.S. Mint struck over 6.4 billion examples, there are many collectors looking for a 1995 Lincoln Cent in PCGS MS68RD to add to their sets. With a population of just 121 coins graded PCGS MS68RD, it’s diffi cult to fi nd one at this grade. When an example does turn up in the marketplace, you can be assured there will be many collectors trying to purchase it for their sets – not to mention coin dealers who are looking to fi ll their inventories with high-grade, low-population coins.

Another coin doing well these days is the 2000-S New Hampshire Proof Silver Washington State Quarter. Th e 50 State Quarter Program began in 1999 and is one of the most popular coin programs in the history of the U.S. Mint. It is believed that during the height of the program there were about 147 million individuals collecting the 50 State Quarters. From those millions of collectors, there is a much smaller, sophisticated group of collectors buying the 50 State Quarters only in PCGS holders. Some of these collectors take