4 minute read
Coin Market Fundamentals
“More, Please…” Collectors Vying For Top-Pop Coins
By Vic Bozarth & Mark Ferguson
While there is no question that the economy is cooling, the rare coin market is strong. Scarce and rare-date coins, if they come on the market, continue to bring record prices.
For example, from Stack’s Bowers Galleries, the Hendricks Set earned over $13.6 million in total prices, more than doubling the overall pre-sale estimate, and boasting an average lot value of nearly $30,000. More than 350 lots, over 70% of the collection, set new auction records for the grade or overall issue, and 17 lots achieved six-figure prices.
The JBR Set from the Fairmont Collection is also from the same source as the Hendricks Set and touts nearly complete runs of each denomination beginning in 1834 including $5, $10, and $20 denominations.
Great coins continue to bring great prices, but what about the rest of the market? Recently, there has been some softness in some of the more common coin price levels. As an example, later-date Washington Quarter prices have been softer partially because of the oversupply. While collectors want the “top pop” grades, even MS65- and MS66-graded coins “aren’t nice enough.” As with many 20th-century coinage series, prices continue to be strong for key dates and “top pop” coins.
Is this 1940 Walking Liberty Half Dollar graded MS66 nice enough for you? A lot of buyers are saying they want to go higher still… Courtesy of PCGS TrueView.
Type gold coin prices, with the lower bullion price levels, have slowed some. Yet there are no real large deals of highergrade generic gold (MS64 and above) available on the market at these levels.
Bullion availability too is often a better measure of what is really going on in the bullion market than the actual price levels. For example, while the spot price of an ounce of silver might be $22, the premiums offered in relation to that spot price tell the real story. Premiums for American Silver Eagles have hovered around $8 to $10 over spot price because of stronger demand with lower bullion prices. When supply is strong, the premiums are smaller. When supply is low, the premiums are substantial.
What does this mean? Scarce and rare-date coin prices will continue to remain strong because of heavy demand and no available quantity of product. Dealers continue to report that merchandise just isn’t available in any quantity – especially scarce-date material. A well-known dealer commented recently, “If I want to have inventory, I’ll have to chase it.”
In other news, we have a new mint director with the confirmation of Ventris C. Gibson. Ms. Gibson, the U.S. Mint’s 40th director, is a navy veteran and the first African American to serve in the role. She is the seventh female to serve in the position as well. Meanwhile, Ms. Lynn Malerba, Lifetime Chief of the Mohegan Tribe, was appointed as the first Native American to serve as Treasury secretary.
Vic Bozarth is a familiar face on the bourse floor to many who have attended coin shows over the last five decades. He’s a self-described “coin weenie” who has attended more than 1,000 shows and vast experience both buying and selling many of the finest PCGS coins. His numismatic knowledge as a dealer and collector provides a unique perspective on our industry.
Mark Ferguson began buying and selling coins in 1969. He graded coins for PCGS between 1986 and 1990 and currently serves as the company's senior price guide consultant. He’s a numismatic researcher, writer, appraiser, and advisor, and he authored The Dollar of 1804: The U.S. Mint’s Hidden Secret.
LETTER TO THE EDITOR
I wanted to thank Kyle Knapp for the excellent article on rainbow-toned Morgan Dollars in the last issue! I just wanted to add that although there are some artificially toned Morgan Dollars floating around in the market, they are not really a serious problem as the grading services identify the coins as “artificially toned” virtually 100% of the time. So, it is important to only buy beautifully toned coins that have been graded. Also, once you have seen many beautiful naturally toned coins, then the artificial ones look fake and will be easy to identify. Buying your coins from reputable dealers and auctions is another good way to reduce the chance that you will get an artificially toned coin.
Sincerely,
David M. Beach Lake Monroe, Florida
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