March 2016
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off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands
Top of the trade The range of drinks that convenience retailers have to consider, and potentially stock and display, has widened greatly in recent years. Today, with our exclusive Nielsen research we identify category trends and brand performances in the Scottish off-trade of some key alcohol categories (with more to follow in upcoming editions). You can measure how your store did last year against the category and brand results and find growing new brands to check out. TAKE a quick glance at the top 50 alcohol brands in the Scottish off-trade for the year to the start of 2016 and you might be forgiven if you think that little appears to be happening. The top 10 brands are in ex-
actly the same position as last year, after all. But dig just a little deeper and it becomes clear that the off-trade landscape is continuing to change, that some consumer trends are intensifying, and that purchasing
and consumption trends for spirits are really quite volatile. Some of the drinks categories that were setting the heather on fire for retailer and consumer alike, like cider, appear to have cooled down. On the other hand other categories which were once considered old-fashioned, like gin, ale and liqueurs are experiencing
good times. And RTDs, which was up this time last year is down this time. But some of its biggest brands are doing well. Over the next few issues Scottish Grocer will look at the tables produced exclusively for us by Nielsen Research to get a picture of overall trends in Scottish off-trade sales as well as more detailed information, including important top 15 in Scottish off-trade listings for individual alcohol catego-
Scotland’s top four off-trade alcohol brands remain Smirnoff, Glen’s, Tennent’s and Budweiser. But the performance of the two categories, vodka and lager, and of the brands differed last year. The two vodkas saw sales rise in a category that was also in growth. The two beers, and the lager category overall, saw sales fall. 36 l
l March 2016
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Scotland’s top 50 off-trade brands by sales value Rank
The figures in Scottish Grocer’s exclusive Scottish off-trade’s most valuable brands guide are provided by leading market research company Nielsen. Figures are Nielsen ScanTrack for total Scottish off-trade and are moving annual totals (MATs) for the year to 2 January 2016 and are compared to the MATs for the previous year – to 3 January 2015. ries. Today we concentrate on key spirits and long alcoholic drinks. But, to start, what does the overall top 50 tell us? Well wine seems to have gone through a particularly volatile year. Overall light wine sales are down but the performance of different brands varies very considerably indeed. Market leader Hardys dropped 3% and Blossom Hill and Gallo were also down but some brands like McGuigan, Concha Y Toro and Barefoot were up strongly. Cider ranges have grown considerably in recent times but it’s beginning to look as if it might be wise to prune some of the lines. But one brand, Strongbow Dark Fruit, could well be a candidate for extra space. Bombay Sapphire put in a very strong performance to consolidate its position as the number two gin. And as you will see from the specific gin category figures in the features, several gins are doing well. While security issues sometimes make it difficult to merchandise spirits to best effect in c-stores, tweaking a gin selection might provide a sales tonic. And speaking of tonics. Buckfast is up and could be headed for the top 10.
Last year
MAT £m to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £m to /we 02.01.16
% Change
1
1
Smirnoff Red Label
70.5
71.5
2
2
Glen's
66.8
68.9
3.2
3
3
Tennent’s
56.8
56.1
-1.3
4
4
Budweiser
42.9
42.3
-1.4
5
5
Stella Artois
35.2
34.9
-0.9
6
6
The Famous Grouse
30.4
27.2
-10.3
7
7
Hardys
27.3
26.5
-3.0
8
8
Strongbow Original
24.4
23.6
-3.5
1.3
9
9
Gordon’s
22.6
21.6
-4.0
10
10
Whyte & Mackay
21.5
20.5
-4.6
11
13
Bells Original
17.4
18.2
4.6
12
11
Blossom Hill
19.0
17.4
-8.7
13
14
Buckfast Tonic Wine
13.1
17.2
31.3
14
12
Foster’s
17.6
15.5
-11.8
15
15
Bacardi
16.0
15.3
-4.7
16
17
Captain Morgan Spiced
14.1
15.0
6.4
17
16
Echo Falls
13.7
14.2
4.1
18
18
Russian Standard
12.5
13.7
9.5
19
23
Isla Negra
9.9
11.1
12.3
20
24
Jack Daniel’s
9.7
11.0
12.5
21
25
McGuigan
9.1
10.4
14.4
22
20
Carling
11.0
10.1
-8.3
23
28
Concha Y Toro
7.9
10.0
27.3
24
40
Corona
6.2
10.0
61.3
25
21
MGD
10.6
9.7
-9.2
26
19
Gallo Family Vineyards
11.5
9.6
-16.4
27
27
Peroni Nastro Azzurro
9.0
9.3
4.1
28
29
Jacobs Creek
7.9
8.5
7.8
29
31
Barefoot
7.2
8.4
16.5
30
22
Carlsberg
9.9
8.3
-15.7
31
30
Lindemans
7.3
7.6
3.9
32
32
McEwans Export Ale
7.2
7.4
3.3
33
33
Wolf Blass
7.1
7.2
1.2
34
41
Coors Light
6.2
7.1
14.0
35
38
Baileys Original
6.3
6.7
7.3
36
26
Kumala
9.1
6.7
-26.0
37
43
Campo Viejo
5.6
6.4
15.7
38
37
WKD
6.3
6.4
1.6
39
35
Kopparberg Mixed Fruit Cider
6.7
6.3
-6.3
40
34
Magners Original
6.8
6.2
-8.9
41
NE
Strongbow Dark Fruit
4.4
6.1
40.9
42
36
Grant’s Family Reserve
6.6
6.1
-7.5
43
42
Guinness Draught
5.7
6.1
7.5
44
47
Kopparberg Strawberry & Lime
4.9
5.7
16.4
45
46
Kronenbourg 1664
5.2
5.5
7.1
46
NE
Yellow Tail
3.9
5.3
36.0
47
NE
Villa Maria
4.7
5.3
12.7
48
44
Three Barrels Grape Brandy
5.4
5.2
-4.2
49
NE
Bombay Sapphire
4.0
5.2
28.7
50
45
Frosty Jacks
5.4
4.9
-8.0
NE = new entry
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Brand
March 2016 l
l 37
24/02/2016 11:41
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands
Moving on up IF there was ever an argument to support the idea that you should carefully consider your range of products in every drinks category then it’s this: last year in Scottish off-trade many of the fastest-growing brands were in categories – such as lager, wine and cider – that were in decline. In the latest Nielsen table showing those brands in the top 50 that grew sales by more than 10%, for example, several wines figure. Yellow Tail is up by 36% to £5.3m. Concha Y Toro is up more than 27%. Barefoot, which topped the list of fastest growers this time last year added still more growth in the most recent figures, increasing sales by 16.5%. And Campo Viejo is another brand which showed considerable growth.
Some categories of alcoholic drinks struggled last year, including a number that might depend on good summer weather for a sales boost. But it’s within those categories that we find some of last year’s fastest-growing brands. We’ll be looking in more detail at the Nielsen wine figures for the Scottish off-trade in a forthcoming issue but it certainly appears to be a category in which it pays to know what’s hot. However, the fastest-growing brand this year wasn’t a wine – it was the Mexican lager Corona. Now, in 2014 there had been problems with production in the early part of the year and that may have influenced the brand’s sales decline in 2014 and its subsequent bounceback in 2015. But, even with that consideration, a 61% sales increase and the achievement of £10m sales in a year when overall lager sales fell, when consumers could only break
out the barbie very occasionally, and when there were few major TV sports events, is a remarkable performance. Coors Light was another beer growing strongly in a tough market. Our Buckfast figure is influenced to some extent by a tweak to last year’s figure that resulted from a change in the sample used. Last year’s figure was reduced in the survey and when the most recent year’s figure was computed it showed more than 31% sales growth. A very large proportion of Buckfast sales go through the convenience sector and the latest stats show it has become one of the single-most important alcohol brands for Scottish c-stores.
The fastest-growing major brand in Scottish off-sales (drawn from those that were already in the top 50) is Mexican Beer Corona. In the previous year (2014, which included a period when there had been shortages of supply) sales had actually fallen. So the 2015 growth marks a major bounce back, especially considering the Scottish summer weather was poor. Coors Light was another lager which very significantly bucked the downward category sales trend.
Top 50 brands that increased sales by more than 10% Rank
Some changes to the statistical sample used by Nielsen Research caused the researcher to look carefully at Buckfast’s figures. It adjusted the previous year’s total and found that growth in 2015 for the brand had been substantial. 38 l
Brand
MAT £m to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £m to /we 02.01.16
% Change
1
Corona
6.2
10.0
61.3
2
Strongbow Dark Fruit
4.4
6.1
40.9
3
Yellow Tail
3.9
5.3
36.0
4
Buckfast Tonic Wine
13.1
17.2
31.3
5
Bombay Sapphire
4.0
5.2
28.7
6
Concha Y Toro
7.9
10.0
27.3
7
Barefoot
7.2
8.4
16.5
8
Kopparberg Strawberry & Lime
4.9
5.7
16.4
9
Campo Viejo
5.6
6.4
15.7
10
McGuigan
9.1
10.4
14.4
11
Coors Light
6.2
7.1
14.0
12
Villa Maria
4.7
5.3
12.7
13
Jack Daniel’s
9.7
11.0
12.5
14
Isla Negra
9.9
11.1
12.3
l March 2016
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J. Chandler & Co (Buckfast) Ltd
New Abbey House, Fyfield Road, Weyhill, Andover, SP11 8DN. Telephone: 01264 774 700 Fax: 01264 774 747
www.buckfast.com
Registered in England No. 222047 VAT Registered No. 22652377 JChandler - SG - linda .indd 1
24/02/2016 11:14
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands
Scotland’s top 50 off-trade spirits by sales value Rank
Last year
Brand
£000s to w/e 03.01.15
£000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
1
1
Smirnoff
70,535
71,479
2
2
Glen's
66,825
68,941
1.3 3.2
3
3
The Famous Grouse
30,372
27,239
-10.3
4
4
Gordon’s
22,553
21,648
-4.0 -4.6
5
5
Whyte & Mackay
21,463
20,473
6
6
Bells Original
17,419
18,220
4.6
7
7
Bacardi
16,004
15,251
-4.7
8
8
Captain Morgan Spiced
14,072
14,979
6.4
9
9
Russian Standard
12,503
13,691
9.5
10
10
Jack Daniel’s
9,737
10,956
12.5
11
12
Baileys Original
6,277
6,734
7.3
12
11
Grant’s Family Reserve
6,635
6,136
-7.5
13
14
Three Barrels Grape Brandy
5,397
5,169
-4.2
14
15
Bombay Sapphire
4,014
5,164
28.7
15
13
High Commissioner
6,271
4,537
-27.7
16
23
Glenmorangie Original
2,915
3,391
16.3
17
16
Courvoisier VS
3,385
3,383
-0.1
18
20
Southern Comfort
2,999
3,143
4.8
19
21
Absolut Vodka Original
2,991
3,107
3.9
Jack Daniel’s: continued growth saw it reach almost £11m Scottish take-home sales
20
18
OVD
3,053
3,055
0.1
21
22
Glenfiddich 12 Yr Old
2,940
2,897
-1.5
22
17
Aberlour 10 Yr Old
3,372
2,772
-17.8
Acting on impulse
23
29
Green Mark Russian Vodka
2,190
2,597
18.6
LOOK at the top 50 spirits in Scottish take-home and it becomes clear just how important the two giant vodkas, Smirnoff and Glen’s, are. It was an important year for Glen’s, after new owner Loch Lomond Group repackaged the brand. Marketing executive Gary Mills said the brand was benefiting, especially in Scottish impulse outlets where he said it is currently achieving growth of 13% in both value and volume and had introduced PMPs. Other key spirits brands in the latest research include: Jack Daniel’s, now very firmly a top 10 brand; Glenmorangie Original, which is now number one malt; Bombay Sapphire, performing well ahead of a buoyant gin market; and Hendrick’s, also well ahead of good gin growth. 40 l
24
27
Jura 10 Yr Old
2,363
2,522
6.8
25
30
Greenall’s Original
2,072
2,468
19.1
26
33
Tanqueray London Dry Gin
1,797
2,420
34.6
27
26
Martell VS
2,397
2,376
-0.9
28
28
Teacher’s Highland Cream
2,261
2,373
5.0
29
25
Drambuie
2,408
2,321
-3.6
30
24
Vladivar Classic
2,843
2,164
-23.9
31
36
Highland Park 12 Year Old
1,681
2,131
26.8
32
31
Jagermeister
2,065
2,039
-1.3
33
NE
Glenlivet Founder's Reserve
2,006
NEW
34
32
Grey Goose
35
NE
Bombay Dry Gin
1,852
1,952
5.4
225
1,867
729.6
36
35
Malibu Coconut
1,713
1,790
4.5
37
38
Jim Beam
1,616
1,749
8.3
38
39
Disaronno
1,593
1,725
8.3
39
37
Jack Daniel’s Honey
1,680
1,720
2.4
40
40
Glen Moray Classic
1,580
1,702
7.8
41
34
Tia Maria
1,751
1,636
-6.6
42
NE
The Glen Stag
1,537
NEW
43
42
Glayva Liqueur
1,388
1,422
2.5
44
43
Old Pulteney 12 Yr Old Malt
1,281
1,404
9.6
45
48
Hendrick's
1,087
1,341
23.4
46
45
Jameson
1,145
1,272
11.1
47
50
Chambord
1,074
1,267
18.0
48
46
Cointreau
1,140
1,198
5.1
49
NE
Jura Superstition
1,051
1,164
10.8
50
NE
Kirov
1,121
NEW
NE = new entry l March 2016
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Halewood - SG - linda.indd 1
24/02/2016 15:02
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: gin
Tough at the top GIN isn’t the biggest spirits category in the Scottish offtrade but it is currently one of the most interesting. There has been a boom in gin manufacturing as large distillers and small have launched an extraordinary range of craft gins as well as products flavoured with traditional and other ingredients. Those new gins have gained visibility in city cocktail bars and other on-trade outlets. In the last couple of years they have begun to make their way onto supermarket shelves and some could very well have a part to play in c-stores too. But what is the effect of the gin revolution among the main gin players in the Scottish offtrade? Well, first things first, in the most recent 12 months measured by Nielsen gin sales in Scottish off-trade outlets are up, by a very healthy 6.3%. And that followed the 6% growth achieved by gin in the previous year. In the two years of 2014 and 2015 gin sales in the Scottish off-trade jumped from £43m to more than £48m. And over those two years most of the main brands have seen growth. This year however there’s a significant difference. While market leader Gordon’s still dominates the category in the Scottish off-trade massively (taking almost 45% of all sales and being around four times bigger than its nearest competitor) its sales in the 12 months to early January were down by 4% on the previous year. It’s quite a change from the previous year when the brand had grown by 7%. Among the big gin winners 42 l
Scotland’s top off-trade gins by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
Total Gin
45,387
48,269
1
6.3
Gordon’s
22,553
21,648
-4.0
2
Bombay Sapphire
4,014
5,164
28.7
3
Greenall’s Original
2,072
2,468
19.1
4
Tanqueray London Dry Gin
1,797
2,420
34.6
5
Bombay Dry Gin
6
Hendrick's
7
225
1,867
729.6
1,087
1,341
23.4
Caorunn
516
885
71.6
8
Glen's London Extra Dry
117
295
151.7
9
Blackwoods Vintage Dry Gin
244
274
12.5
10
Grosvenor London Dry Gin
253
267
5.8
11
Gordon’s Elderflower
227
230
1.1
12
Tanqueray No Ten
109
211
93.5
13
Edinburgh Gin
122
206
68.9
14
Gordon’s Crisp Cucumber
357
170
-52.2
15
Beefeater Gin
316
167
-47.1
Bombay Sapphire and Bombay Dry both achieved significant sales growth in 2015. Gordon’s gin, while still massively the biggest gin, was shown as down 4%. The Edinburgh Gin brand saw sales rise by almost 69%.
in Scottish off-trade over 2015 were second placed Bombay Sapphire which grew by almost 29% and made up some ground on Gordon’s and its stablemate Bombay Dry
which had been a new launch in 2014 but jumped hugely to achieve sales of almost £1.9m and grab the number-five spot. Hendrick’s is now also com-
fortably above £1m worth of off-trade sales. And Caorunn, Glen’s Extra London Dry, Greenall’s, the Tanqueray gins, Edinburgh Gin and Blackwoods also showed growth.
l March 2016
make up fd p p42 - 54 off trade top 50 section b M.indd 1
24/02/2016 15:51
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IanMacleod - SG - linda.indd 1
24/02/2016 14:56
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: whisky
Scotland’s top off-trade blended Scotch by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total Blended Scotch
In another tough year for blended whisky in the Scottish off-trade Johnnie Walker Red Label was a star performer with 15.9% growth.
SHOULD you be giving more space to malt whisky and less to blended Scotch? Well, for the second year in a row the Nielsen Scantrack data shows blended Scotch whisky sales in significant decline. In the year to the beginning of January this year the category was down 5.4% and the previous year it had dropped 5%. Malt whisky on the other hand continued to increase sales, up 4.5% in the latest year after achieving growth of 7% 12 months before. It means that in two years blended whisky sales in the Scottish off-trade have fallen by around £12m to 102.2m while sales of malts are up by over £4m to reach £38.6m. In blends The Famous Grouse remains the market leader by a very considerable distance despite recording a sales decline of 10.3% in the Nielsen findings. The best sales growth per44 l
% Change
102,207
-5.4
1
The Famous Grouse
30,372
27,239
-10.3
2
Whyte & Mackay
21,463
20,473
-4.6
3
Bell’s Original
17,419
18,220
4.6
4
Grant’s Family Reserve
6,635
6,136
-7.5
5
High Commissioner
6,271
4,537
-27.7
6
Teacher’s Highland Cream
2,261
2,373
5.0
7
The Glen Stag
1,537
NEW
8
Chivas Regal 12 Year Old
1,083
1,108
2.3
9
Johnnie Walker Red Label
904
1,048
15.9
10
Black Bottle
916
1,012
10.6
11
Scottish Leader Finest
956
885
-7.4
12
Johnnie Walker Black Label
657
579
-11.8
13
The Black Grouse
798
562
-29.6
14
Ballantine's Finest
242
392
61.5
15
Claymore Scotch Whisky
376
382
1.7
Scotland’s top off-trade malt Scotch by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total Malt Scotch
Moving to malt?
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
108,069
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
36,885
38,552
4.5 16.3
1
Glenmorangie Original
2,915
3,391
2
Glenfiddich 12 Yr Old
2,940
2,897
-1.5
3
Aberlour 10 Yr Old
3,372
2,772
-17.8
4
Jura 10 Yr Old
2,363
2,522
6.8
5
Highland Park 12 Year Old
1,681
2,131
26.8
6
The Glenlivet Founder's Reserve
2,006
NEW
7
Glen Moray Classic
1,580
1,702
7.8
8
Old Pulteney 12 Yr Old Malt
1,281
1,404
9.6
9
Jura Superstition
1,051
1,164
10.8
10
Laphroaig Malt 10 Yr Old
868
905
4.2
11
Balvenie Doublewood 12 Yr Old
980
891
-9.1
12
The Glenlivet 12 Yr Old
3,011
811
-73.1
13
The Ardmore
124
788
537.2
14
Dalwhinnie Malt Whisky 15 Y.O.
1,002
746
-25.6
15
Singleton Of Dufftown Spey Cascade
177
663
275.1
formances among the major blends came from Bell’s, up almost 5%, Johnnie Walker Red Label, up almost 16% – in a second year of strong growth, and Black Bottle which showed a sales increase of almost 11% and saw its Scottish off-trade sales push though £1m. Value brand, available in Morrisons, Glen Stag was a new entry in the blends top 15. Among malts there was a return to the top for one time long-term Scottish market leader Glenmorangie, Glenmorangie Original’s
sales grew by more than 16%. Highland Park also seems to have had a very good year in Scottish off-sales. Glenlivet Founder’s Reserve, a new malt from the brand, made an impressive entry at number six on the chart but looks to have hit sales of Glenlivet 12 year old. The Ardmore saw sales rise dramatically from a low base as did Spey Cascade from Singleton of Dufftown. Only a few of the major malts saw declines in what was another strong Scottish sales year.
Black Bottle: up 10.6%.
l March 2016
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Distell - SG - linda.indd 1
23/02/2016 16:04
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: liqueurs
Scotland’s top off-trade liqueurs by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total Non-Cream Liqueurs
Chambord growth continues. It was up 49% in 2014 and a further 18% in 2015.
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
19,884
20,928
5.3
1
Drambuie
2,408
2,321
-3.6
2
Jagermeister
2,065
2,039
-1.3
3
Disaronno
1,593
1,725
8.3
4
Jack Daniels Honey
1,680
1,720
2.4
5
Tia Maria
1,751
1,636
-6.6
6
Glayva Liqueur
1,388
1,422
2.5
7
Chambord
1,074
1,267
18.0
8
Cointreau
1,140
1,198
5.1
9
Sourz Apple
933
963
3.2
10
Sourz Raspberry
714
614
-14.0
11
Aftershock Red
115
520
350.9
12
Stivy's Kola Vodka
340
412
21.0
13
Sourz Rainbow Ice
377
NEW
14
Kahlua
295
329
11.5
15
Sourz Tropical Blue
164
232
41.7
Scotland’s top off-trade cream liqueurs by sales value Rank
Disaronno is another established liqueur that continues to grow in the Scottish off-trade.
Not just Christmas DO liqueurs have a place on drinks shelves in all channels and across the entire trading year? Well it looks as if some certainly do. Both of the liqueur categories analysed by Nielsen – cream liqueurs and non-cream liqueurs – saw significant growth last year, both were up 5.3% on the year before. The combined sales total of £30.5m is equivalent to about 60% of gin sales and is 46 l
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
Total Cream Liqueurs
9,187
9,676
1
Baileys Original
6,277
6,734
7.3
2
Irish Meadow
478
368
-23.2
3
Baileys Chocolat Luxe
315
311
-1.2
4
O'Connors Irish Cream
178
282
59.1
5
Baileys Orange Truffle
300
268
-10.7
6
Irish Knights Liqueur
312
145
-53.6
7
Baileys Coffee
125
131
5.0
8
Amarula
118
127
7.7
9
Warninks White
54
97
78.1
78
NEW
82
72
-12.2
107
70
-34.7
47
NEW
45
NEW
36
76.9
10
Causeway Coast
11
Thorntons Chocolate Liqueur
12
Sheridan's
13
Causeway Coast Superior
14
Rum Chata
15
Arran Gold
about two and a half times the amount achieved by speciality drinks. So what’s hot in the liqueur scene in Scotland’s off-trade currently? Well Drambuie and Jagermeister retain the number one and number two positions in non-cream liqueurs from last year but, while this time last year they both recorded substantial growth, in 2015 both slipped back.
21
The Italian liqueur Disaronno achieved some of the best growth among established liqueurs in Scotland’s off-trade in 2015 when it increased sales by 8.3% to reach £1.7m. Raspberry liqueur Chambord consolidated its impressive growth in 2014 to increase by 18% in 2015 and reach almost £1.3m worth of sales. Jack Daniel’s Honey whiskey liqueur, Glayva, Cointreau, a number of Sourz variants, Af-
5.3
tershock Red and Kahlua also did well. Baileys Original continues to massively dominate cream liqueur sales and it saw 7.3% growth. Interestingly however Baileys Chocolate Luxe was down in 2015 after showing very substantial growth in 2014. Among the smaller cream liqueurs some showed high growth and there were several new entries.
l March 2016
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24/02/2016 15:54
BRAVO TO +18% GROWTH IN SCOTLAND HIP-HIP!
Chambordchannel.com Please enjoy Chambord responsibly. For the facts: drinkaware.co.uk
Chambord - SG - linda.indd 1
*Source: Nielsen Scantrack Latest Off-Trade MAT 02.01.16 Chambord Black Raspberry Liqueur Š2016. Chambord is a registered trademark. All rights reserved
25/02/2016 11:00
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: RTDs+specialities
Scotland’s top off-trade RTDs by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total RTD
RTD category brand leader WKD appeared to do very well in a market that was sharply down in 2015 and which showed very marked variety in performances.
More in the Soop RTDs and speciality drinks are often seen as appealing especially to young adults and young adults can be fickle, right? Well there’s little doubt that trends and performances change quite dramatically from year to year. Take RTDs as an example. This time last year the category itself was reported to be in rude commercial health in Scottish off-trade with sales rising. But despite all of that the category brand leader WKD had been in significant decline. This year the reverse is true. The category is in decline, by 4.5% by sales value, but sales of category leader WKD are up, by 1.6%. All in all a good result. But not as good a result as that of the new second-placed RTD, the canned alcoholic energy drink Dragon’s Soop. It had taken fourth position last year and had grown 57%. This year it moves into second spot, ahead of major brands like Smirnoff Ice and Crabbie’s Ginger Beer after its 48 l
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
30,767
29,388
% Change
-4.5
1
WKD
6,289
6,388
1.6
2
Dragon Soop
1,386
2,806
102.4
3
Smirnoff Ice
2,800
2,580
-7.9
4
Jack Daniel’s & Cola
845
1,319
56.1
5
Crabbie’s Ginger Beer
1,696
1,316
-22.4
6
Gordon’s G&T
1,282
1,088
-15.1
7
Caribbean Twist
920
994
8.0
8
Gordon’s Diet G&T
920
772
-16.0
9
Smirnoff Sorbet
1,175
760
-35.3
10
Parrot Bay
1,211
688
-43.2
11
Hooch
465
500
7.7
12
Captain Morgan Spiced & Cola
563
456
-19.0
13
Smirnoff & Cola
534
447
-16.3
14
VS Sorted
286
414
44.7
15
Bacardi Breezer
813
412
-49.3
Scotland’s top off-trade specialities by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Speciality Drinks
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
12,777
12,224
-4.3
1
Southern Comfort Original
2,999
3,143
4.8
2
Malibu Coconut
1,713
1,790
4.5
3
Pimms No 1
1,126
792
-29.7
4
V-Kat Schnapps
668
708
6.0
5
Archers Peach
708
639
-9.8
6
Pernod
518
499
-3.7
7
Cactus Jacks Apple Sour
307
241
-21.6
8
Campari
228
222
-2.6
9
Savanna Peach Schnapps
88
215
144.6 -16.7
10
Midori
252
210
11
Brandx
186
199
6.9
12
Passoa
137
165
20.8
13
Spirit Of Louisiana
178
162
-9.4
14
Jack Daniels Winter Jack
203
154
-23.8
15
Southern Comfort Lime
197
153
-22.2
sales more than doubled compared to the previous year to reach £28m. Jack Daniel’s & Cola is the other big success story among RTDs, with sales up by more than 56%. Speciality drinks were down overall – category sales dropped 4.3%. But, interestingly, it was the established, top-selling brands that significantly bucked the downward trend. Southern Comfort retained
its category-leading position in Scotland’s off-trade with sales up almost 5%. The brand was advertised heavily last year. And Malibu, currently involved in new product development initiatives, was up 4.5%. In a year with a bad summer Pimms No 1 fell almost 30% from £1.1m to less than £800,000. Spray Tan, a Southern Comfort ad that backed the growing brand last year.
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24/02/2016 11:38
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: vodka
Top brands rising SPIRITS sales are hugely important to the Scottish offtrade and, despite the world regarding Scotland as the home of whisky, vodka is the country’s biggest selling spirit. Nielsen measured vodka category sales in the Scottish off-trade as totalling just over £195m in the 12 months to the beginning of this year. The combined total of blended, malt and imported whisky only reaches £158m. Considering vodka’s existing very strong position it looks to have had a reasonably good year last year with overall category growth of more than £3m or 1.7%. And 11 out of 15 top-selling Scottish off-trade vodkas showed sales growth, many of them at rates that were well ahead of the market. Of course if vodka dominates spirits sales in the country’s off-trade outlets that’s largely down to two brands – Smirnoff and Glen’s. Diageo-owned Smirnoff retained its category leadership and saw sales rise by 1.3% in the period covered by the Nielsen figures. That appears to be quite an impressive performance, because it’s never easy for a brand to achieve significant growth if it already has high sales figures and is in near 100% distribution. But that 1.3% is slightly behind the overall category growth of 1.7% and is well short of the 6% growth in Scottish off-sales that it achieved the previous year. The second-placed brand Glen’s on the other hand has sustained and bettered its growth rate in the last two years. This year it’s shown to have achieved 3.2% growth and has closed the sales value
Scotland’s top off-trade vodkas Scotch by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total Vodka Inc Flavoured
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
191,764
195,050
1.7
1
Smirnoff Red Label
70,535
71,479
1.3
2
Glen's
66,825
68,941
3.2
3
Russian Standard
12,503
13,691
9.5
4
Absolut Vodka Original
2,991
3,107
3.9
5
Green Mark Russian Vodka
2,190
2,597
18.6
6
Vladivar Classic
2,843
2,164
-23.9
7
Grey Goose
1,852
1,952
5.4
8
Kirov
9
Selekt
1,121
NEW
1,396
874
-37.4
10
Absolut Raspberri
758
865
14.1
11
Red Square
954
753
-21.1
12
Eristoff
404
655
62.2
13
Finlandia
550
535
-2.7
14
Zubrowka Bison Vodka
413
492
19.0
15
Stolichnaya
358
466
30.1
gap between the big two in vodka in the Scottish off-trade to roughly £2.5m. A considerable distance behind but growing fast in terms of Scottish take-home sales is Russian Standard vodka. In the 12 months being measured it was up 9.5% to
£13.7m and that came on the back of 32% growth the previous year. It has now established itself as the clear third-placed vodka brand in the country’s offtrade. Between them the big three account for 79% of take-
home vodka sales. But many of the smaller brands are showing good rates of off-trade growth. Green Mark Russian vodka is up by almost 19%, for example. And Stolichnaya has entered the top 15 after seeing sales growth of 30%. March 2016 l
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% Change
l 49
24/02/2016 16:04
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: cider
Dark star in tough year IT’S very difficult to see it any other way, cider had a pretty tough year in the Scottish offtrade in 2015. Sales fell 4.2% overall. And of the 15 top sellers in Scottish take-home outlets 10 showed sales decline and nine of those 10 fell at a rate faster than the overall result for the category. The one exception among those ciders however was the market leader Strongbow Original which was down 3.5%. It begins to look like a decent performance, especially when its stable mate Strongbow Dark Fruit was the star player in the table, with growth of just under 41%. That growth was on the back of the 106% growth the Dark Fruit variant achieved the year before, and it sees it move up from seventh position in the cider table to fourth place. It means the combined sales of Strongbow Original and Strongbow Dark Fruit increased by over £1m to reach £29.8m, which in the context of a declining market should be seen as actually quite a positive outcome for the brand, especially when some other brands’ sales declines were very marked. Of course, that overall cider decline happened in a year that had a poor summer, especially when compared to the year before when summer was good. Many of the cider firms have made strenuous efforts to persuade consumers to look upon cider as an all-year drink but it remains an alcohol category where good weather heavily influences levels of consumption. This time last year it looked as if fruit ciders were the main engine of cider growth. This year the picture is different. Strongbow Dark Fruit is a fruit flavoured cider in sub50 l
Scotland’s top off-trade ciders by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
Total Cider
96,308
92,270
-4.2
1
Strongbow Original
24,412
23,566
-3.5
2
Kopparberg Mixed Fruit Cider
6,687
6,266
-6.3
3
Magners Original
6,833
6,219
-9.0
4
Strongbow Dark Fruit
4,359
6,143
40.9
5
Kopparberg Strawberry & Lime
4,913
5,717
16.4
6
Frosty Jacks
5,364
4,948
-7.8
7
Stella Artois Cidre
4,758
3,082
-35.2
8
Henry Westons Vintage
1,790
2,084
16.5
9
K
937
1,807
92.8
10
Kopparberg Pear Cider
2,162
1,491
-31.0
11
Scrumpy Jack
1,578
1,460
-7.5
12
Rekorderlig Strawberry & Lime
1,351
1,397
3.4
13
Bulmers Red Berries & Lime
1,645
1,194
-27.4
14
Bulmers Original
1,219
1,076
-11.7
15
Omega White Cider
1,456
1,030
-29.3
In a year of mixed fortunes for alcohol categories in the Scottish off-trade cider was one of the drinks that was hardest hit. But there were still 2015 successes. Strongbow Dark Fruit continued on a path of strong growth. K Cider fared well after receiving a revamp and Strawberry & Lime did better than many other flavours, especially for Kopparberg.
stantial growth of course. Beyond that Strawberry & Lime flavour did well in 2015 for both Kopparberg (especially) and Rekorderlig. Other fruit flavours didn’t fare so well however.
Kopparberg Pear and Bulmer Crushed Red Berries and Lime were well down. In fact the few ciders that did well tended to be more traditional in one way or another. Henry Weston’s Vintage
showed growth of 16.5% in Scottish take-home and K Cider, the strong cider which C&C revamped in 2014, had a very good 2015 indeed, almost doubling its sales to reach a total of £1.8m.
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24/02/2016 11:39
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: beer
Tennent’s remained leader among lagers in Scottish take home in 2015 and it performed slightly better than the lager market overall. But many of the biggest beer brands saw sales decline. Lagers showing positive Scottish off-trade growth despite the market decline included Corona, Coors Light and Peroni.
Up and down lagers THE beer sales pattern for Scottish off-trade in 2015 is actually quite complex and fascinating. And, while much of the outcomes will have been influenced by the promotion or non-promotion of certain brands in supermarkets, there are some clear trends that should be carefully considered by convenience retailers. Combined sales of lagers, ales and stouts in the Nielsen listings came out at just under £331m – that compared to just over £333m the year before. But losses are most acute in lager. The lager sub-category dropped overall by 1.6%. The market leader Tennent’s and the next two biggest brands Budweiser and Stella Artois were all down slightly but still managed to beat the market performance. Foster’s, Car-
Scotland’s top off-trade lagers by sales value Rank
Brand
Total Lager
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
281,474
-1.6
1
Tennent’s
56,815
56,072
-1.3
2
Budweiser
42,858
42,271
-1.4
3
Stella Artois
35,211
34,887
-0.9
4
Foster’s
17,621
15,542
-11.8
5
Carling
11,044
10,127
-8.3
6
Corona
6,179
9,964
61.3
7
MGD
10,625
9,652
-9.2
8
Peroni Nastro Azzurro
8,984
9,349
4.1
9
Carlsberg
9,894
8,344
-15.7
10
Coors Light
6,190
7,056
14.0
11
Kronenbourg 1664
5,154
5,521
7.1
12
Heineken (5%)
4,712
4,803
1.9
13
San Miguel
4,468
4,740
6.1
14
Tyskie
4,105
4,261
3.8
15
Becks Bier
4,193
4,068
-3.0
ling, MGD and Carlsberg, on the other hand, were all down heavily. But there were very good la-
ger performances too. On the up in 2015 were Corona, with very significant growth indeed, Peroni, Coors Light, Kronen-
bourg 1664 and San Miguel. Heineken continued growing. And Polish beer Tyskie registered almost 4% growth. March 2016 l
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% Change
285,973
l 51
24/02/2016 11:39
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: beer
Feeling the craft SO, if lager has seen sales decline is it suffering from increased competition from resurgent ales and stouts and a remarkable collection of craft beers? Well it does look as if the main growth in beer is indeed coming from craft products and more traditional ales and stouts. However it’s important to remember certain things before going on to look at some fascinating apparent market trends within ales and stouts themselves. First, while lager certainly slipped back last year it still accounts for by far the biggest part of Scottish off-trade beer business. Lager sales total almost £331m, while ales and stouts combined reach a little bit less than £50m. And 2015 could be seen as having been a challenging time for lager particularly when compared to the previous year. While 2014 had delivered a reasonably fine summer 2015 returned to the recent norm of poor June, July and August weather. And while 2014 had included a World Cup and the Ryder Cup, 2015 was a quiet year for major TV sports events. This year we will have the Euros and the Olympics and the lager brand owners will also be hoping the sun comes out. But, all that being said, the difference in growth and decline between the different beer sub-categories is very noticeable. The total ales market was up 4.8% on the year and that followed 4% growth the year before. Nielsen’s findings show that ales have added almost £3.5m sales in two years. Lagers lost around £2m worth of 52 l
Scotland’s top off-trade ales by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
Total Ale
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
38,925
40,797
1
McEwan’s Export Ale
7,198
7,435
4.8 3.3
2
John Smith’s Extra Smooth
4,304
4,184
-2.8
3
Tennent’s Special
2,450
1,849
-24.5
4
Belhaven Best Draught Ale
2,057
1,762
-14.3
5
Old Speckled Hen
1,098
1,276
16.2
6
Newcastle Brown
1,211
1,203
-0.7
7
Brewdog Punk IPA
594
1,165
96.2
8
McEwan’s Champion
943
1,070
13.6
9
Deuchar’s IPA
1,142
1,021
-10.6
10
Innis & Gunn Original
1,088
1,021
-6.2
11
Hobgoblin
851
906
6.6
12
Bitter & Twisted
525
646
23.0
13
Joker IPA
331
633
91.4
14
Orkney Dark Island Ale
544
618
13.8
15
Arran Blonde
492
598
21.5
2015 turned out to be another good year for ale in Scotland’s off-trade outlets. Growth came from many different types and brands. Market leader McEwan’s Export returned to growth with a 3.3% increase in sales. McEwan’s Champion Ale was also up and Brewdog Punk IPA sales soared by 96% to more than £1m.
sales in the same period. In 2015 stouts added 3.1% to reach sales of £8.7m. But it would be wrong to think that the trends are simply a result of all ales and
stouts doing well. We’ve already seen, on page 52, that some lagers did very well in 2015, while some broadly matched the market performance and others fell sharp-
ly. In ales, despite the overall growth, it was a very similar picture. So who were the big winners and which brands struggled? Well there seem to be two
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24/02/2016 11:39
Leader of the four pack.
McEwan’s Export continues to be the best selling canned ale in Scotland. So stay ahead of demand and stock up now. Source: Nielsen ScanTrack Value Sales, MAT to 02.01.16.
CharlesWells - SG - linda.indd 1
PLEASE DRINK RESPONSIBLY
23/02/2016 16:02
off-trade – Scotland’s most valuable brands: beer
A number of craft beers including Arran Blonde, Joker IPA, Bitter & Twisted, and Orkney Dark Island Ale showed good growth this year. Substantial growth in sales of the stout market leader Guinness Draught helped stout sales increase by more than 3%. Guinness has been advertising heavily. It’s latest Made of More ads have been running this year.
distinct stories, one about mainstream canned ales and one about premium bottled ales and craft ales. At the top of the table this time last year all the major brands were in decline. This year there is one notable exception. Take-home ales market leader McEwan’s Export returned to growth in 2015, clocking up a 3.3% increase to reach sales of £7.4m. In contrast its nearest competitors John Smith’s Extra Smooth, Tennent’s Special and Belhaven Best were all down. But it was among ales that for the most part are sold in bottles (though a number of craft beers are now also available in cans) that some of the greatest growth occurred. One to note is Brewdog’s Punk IPA – up by a massive 96% to crash through the £1m sales barrier, while jumping ahead of brands like Deuchar’s IPA, Innis & Gunn Original and even Hobgoblin, which showed decent growth itself. Old Speckled Hen is up 54 l
Scotland’s top off-trade stouts by sales value Rank
Brand
MAT £000s to w/e 03.01.15
MAT £000s to /we 02.01.16
% Change
Total Stout
8,466
8,725
1
Guinness Dr
5,670
6,094
7.5
2
Guinness Original
1,156
1,002
-13.3
3
Tennents Sweetheart
717
668
-6.9
4
Murphy's Draught
246
315
28.3
5
Belhaven Black
202
184
-8.8
6
Cairngorm Black Gold
73
103
40.6
7
Guinness Foreign Extra
47
53
12.4
8
Mackeson
42
42
2.0
9
Broughton Dark Dunter
15
38
153.8
10
Guinness Mid Strength
71
37
-48.5
11
Orkney Dragonhead
37
36
-3.6
12
Black Wych Stout
15
35
131.0
13
March Of The Penguins
30
33
8.7
14
Young’s Double Chocolate
18
10
-44.7
15
Belhaven Scottish Oat Stout
1
9
800
16.2% and has moved into the Scottish off-trade ales top five having moved ahead of Newcastle Brown Ale. And McEwan’s Champion Ale is another beer that had a good year and moved up the table. Craft beers like Bitter & Twisted, Joker IPA, Orkney
Dark Island and Arran Blonde also showed very good growth indeed. In stouts Guinness Draught dominates, of course, and its growth of 7.5% was a huge contributing factor to the stout sub-category’s overall growth. However, interestingly, its mainstream competitor Mur-
3.1
phy’s Draught was also up considerably. Guinness has been advertising heavily, using its TV ads in the Made of More series, and it has also been busy adding craft stouts to its bottled range. Guinness Foreign Extra Stout, from a low base, was up 12.4%.
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24/02/2016 11:40
ArranBrewery - SG - linda.indd 1
25/02/2016 13:37