CROIX RESILIENCE PLAN

Climate models project temperature increases, rising coastlines, and increasingly frequent flooding. 55

In looking at climate projections, St. Croix is facing two dire situations. In the climate average scenario of Global Climate Models (GCMs), St. Croix is expected to become much drier—a worry for the island’s water supply. And, in the climate extreme scenario, St. Croix is expected to become slightly wetter—meaning increased flooding and rising coasts.56

More modeling suggests that it is heavily indicated that St. Croix will become warmer by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2050s and 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2100s.57 Night temperatures are expected to increase, as well.58 The temperature changes will cause a multitude of emerging issues. For example, the large elderly population of St. Croix at a higher risk of heat-related illness and vector-borne diseases and agriculture on the island will be negatively impacted, as well. It is important to remember that increase in temperature is not a localized phenomenon. Several regions across the globe are increasing in temperature leading to the melting of land ice and expansion of the ocean; this melting and expansion cause sea level to rise.

Sea Level Rise Impact

Sea Level Rise by 2090 Roads Arterials Arterials Impacted

Airport/Sea Plane Base Ferry Terminal/ Cargo Port

By 2050, sea level rise will capture 3.7% of the island and 40 years later, that figure will increase to 8.2%.

Sea level rise would impact the vibrant Christiansted boardwalk and several historic buildings in Frederiksted. Sea level rise will critically impact infrastructure on St. Croix, as 23% of the arterials and many beaches will be underwater—a major economic assets to the island.

Without beaches, the tourism industry of St. Croix will decline. Beaches on the island are also facing other problems, like storm surge, which can cause dramatic flooding and erosion on the beaches.

Storm surge will also exacerbate natural and infrastructural flooding. As storm surge is a result of storm events, such as hurricanes and hurricanes are expected to increase in intensity, so will storm surge.

While St. Croix has a gut system that tries to alleviate flooding, guts do not completely solve the problem and the potential flooding and run- off threatens millions of dollars in infrastructure, including homes. 32% of the island is within a flood zone and 3,656 are endangered. While “storms [are generally] considered part of living on barrier islands”, flooding of infrastructure should not be.59

Flooding Impact

Flood Zone Roads

Arterials Impacted

Bus Routes Impacted

Airport/Sea Plane Base

Ferry Terminal/ Cargo Port