Christine Pedersen: Milk Matters

milk matters

By Christine Pedersen

Senior Dairy Business Consultant The Dairy Group christine.pedersen@thedairygroup.co.uk www.thedairygroup.co.uk

Looking back at my previous Feed Compounder columns, in May 2019 I wrote “for many, this spring has been the most challenging for a generation” – a sentiment that is probably equally applicable this spring. The continued cool dry weather has limited grass growth and held milk supply growth back compared to an average spring.

The weather is dictating conversations on farm as discussions centre around the balance between grazing and first cut area. Producers that are now grazing land that was destined for silage and those expecting reduced first cut yields are planning to extend forages by purchasing forage replacers. Others are sourcing additional maize area as the high cost of cereals and straw at harvest is likely to make the option of taking combinable wheat or barley crops for wholecrop forage instead, less attractive.

The volatile feed market coupled with the grazing and potential forage challenges mean that costs of production are likely to rise, even for those who secured compounds or straights forward. The rolling average UK Farm Gate milk price to March 21 was 28.9ppl compared to a range of 28.4 to 29.5ppl for the past 3 years. Our forecast based on current market prices and recently announced increases raises our latest November 2021 forecast to 30.7ppl. Globally milk supply is affected by the same conditions that are impacting UK supply growth, raising the prospects of tighter market conditions and upwards pressure on milk prices.

net Zero

A team of consultants from The Dairy Group has recently been awarded a fellowship from The Trehane Trust to deliver a clear Net Zero roadmap for UK dairy farms. My colleague, Richard Lane, who led The Dairy Group’s bid comments: “The aim is to produce a clear ‘roadmap’ for UK dairy farmers to follow. The project will enable farmers to understand their farm’s current impact, identify and implement mitigation strategies and track progress by navigating roadmap recommendations, practically and profitably. We will investigate current research, innovation and best practice to identify a strategy to reduce emissions.”

Richard goes on to say: “Net Zero is currently a hot topic in all industries and rightly so. Climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is causing our climate to warm. Agriculture, including ruminant livestock, is a significant contributor to UK GHG emissions; in 2017 GHG emissions from agriculture were 45.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, approximately 10% of UK GHG emissions from agriculture fall into three main gasses:

GHG Emission Gas Resulting From Carbon dioxide (CO2) mainly a result of energy consumption (fuel and electricity) Methane (CH4) from enteric fermentation and manures Nitrous oxide (N20) from manures and soil

Whilst most industries focus on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, a greater challenge for agriculture is to reduce methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) which are the two biggest sources of GHG from agriculture and are also more powerful and damaging than CO2. Carbon dioxide provides the ‘benchmark’ for measuring all GHGs’ damage which is referred to as CO2-e or carbon dioxide equivalent which is reported in a carbon footprint calculation.

So where do we start? Our vision is that dairy producers will establish the carbon footprint of their businesses and then monitor ongoing progress. We will align our extensive database of farm financial performance to calculated carbon values and create carbon KPIs to link carbon output to existing metrics. Carbon KPIs will be used to analyse strengths and weaknesses and identify areas for businesses to focus on to achieve greatest benefit both financially and environmentally.

Currently there are few milk contracts offering financial incentives to producers addressing GHG emissions but that is likely to change. As industry driven and government targets come into play, retailers and milk processors will scrutinise dairy farming’s place in the supply chain as they look to reduce GHG emissions. Our roadmap will help producers ‘buy-in’ to the concept as they recognise that reducing GHG emissions makes their own businesses more profitable and sustainable.

From a dairy farm and feed compounder perspective, the two main areas of GHG emissions from UK dairy farms are feed sourcing (26%) and enteric methane (40%):

Source: AHDB Dairy

Feed sourcing emissions are associated with the growing, storing, manufacturing, processing and transporting purchased

feeds. As the reader will be aware, soy and palm products have come under increased scrutiny due to deforestation concerns.

Efficient feeding will reduce methane output. Reducing production losses from unproductive animals via improved health, fertility, reduced lameness, mastitis and other metabolic or infectious diseases leading to lower replacement rates and less youngstock all make an impact. Heifers calving by 24 months can result in improved lifetime yields and a 6% reduction in GHG emissions compared to calving at 30 months. Improving herd genetics, using sexed semen and genomics can all play a part in increasing herd efficiency. As I am sure readers are aware, there are several feed ingredients under evaluation for their efficacy in decreasing CH4 output with some claiming significant reductions (up to 30%). Similarly, research indicates that increasing fatty acids in the diet can reduce methane production. The source of the fatty acid will have an impact on the overall effect and cost implications need to be considered.

Higher digestibility forages result in higher intakes which can reduce feed purchases and result in a 2 to 4% methane reduction. Increasing the use of clovers and other nitrogen fixing plants will increase home grown protein provision and reduce the need for artificial fertiliser leading to significant reductions in N2O emissions. Timings and methods of slurry and manure applications are also key; targeting applications to growing crops will increase utilization, thereby requiring less artificial nitrogen. When combined with precision application methods, N2O emissions are again reduced.

Other areas away from feeding such as improving energy efficiency will result in reduced CO2. Renewable energy generation is a great opportunity to address the carbon balance. While it is still an evolving science, carbon sequestration is likely to gain impact. A renewed focus on soil health with the aim of increasing soil carbon levels along with trees and hedges are other areas to explore in the quest for Net Zero.

There is no silver bullet. Reducing GHG emissions is difficult as they result from complex and imperfectly understood biological processes. Marginal gains over many areas are required. The fellowship aims to quantify the impact of these changes on farm both financially and environmentally to increase efficiency and profitability. No doubt many new developments and technologies in the pipeline will come to market. However, if we start to address areas we can manage now, we can make significant progress toward Net Zero.