Ryan Mounsey: Feed Production Update

Feed production update

By Ryan Mounsey

great britain march production update

Total production of compounds, blends and concentrates, including integrated poultry units, during the month of March 2021 amounted to 1,399,900 tonnes, a decline of 8,100 tonnes or 0.6 per cent from the corresponding month a year previously. However, the total under review was a considerable 52,500 tonnes or 3.8 per cent higher than the decade long average for the month.

Total feed production during the month of March 2021 was made up of: 42.3 per cent poultry feed, 30.3 per cent cattle and calf feed, 13.4 per cent pig feed, 11.1 per cent sheep feed, 1.1 per cent horse feed and 1.9 per cent other feed.

At 424,400 tonnes, total cattle and calf feed output had increased by a substantial 19,500 tonnes or 4.8 per cent from 2020’s production. This was the third highest total for March since records began. The current total was a less sizeable 11,700 tonnes or 2.8 per cent greater than the 10 year average for the month under review.

All other cattle compounds was the only element of cattle and calf feed that did not better its year earlier tonnage. The 61,100 tonnes of output was the lowest total for the month since 2012 and 300 tonnes or 0.5 per cent down on 2020. In contrast, output of blends for dairy cows had risen by a considerable 12,100 tonnes or 14.5 per cent to its highest ever level of 95,300 tonnes. Compounds for dairy cows production also grew to historically high levels as did cattle protein concentrates with the former rising by 5,300 tonnes or 2.7 per cent to 204,600 tonnes, its highest level since the March of 2006 and the latter by just 100 tonnes or 1.0 per cent to 9,900 tonnes, its highest level since 2001. The sector was rounded off by all other cattle blends output, at 32,600 tonnes, surpassing year previous levels by 1,900 tonnes or 6.2 per cent and total calf feed, at 20,900 tonnes, bettering year earlier returns by 400 tonnes or 2.0 per cent.

Total pig feed was at its highest level this millennium. Production in March had increased by 7,200 tonnes or 4.0 per cent from a year earlier to bring output up to 187,000 tonnes, the highest total for the month since 1999. The 10 year average for March was also significantly bettered by 21,700 tonnes or 12.3 per cent.

Despite this sector wide increase, there was a considerable reduction in the production of pig starters and creep feed from a year previously: it fell 1,600 tonnes or 25.0 per cent to 4,800 tonnes. Pig protein concentrates also fell sharply, dropping 500 tonnes or 41.7 per cent to 700 tonnes of output whilst link and early grower feed remained at year previous levels of 10,200 tonnes. On the other hand, pig finishing feed production rose sharply from year earlier levels to an unparalleled 93,800 tonnes, surpassing 2020’s total by 6,700 tonnes or 7.7 per cent and pig growing feed production reached its highest level since 2001 of 36,000 tonnes, an increase of 2,400 tonnes or 7.1 per cent. There was also a 200 tonnes or 0.5 per cent rise in pig breeding feed production, up to 41,600 tonnes.

Although total poultry feed, including integrated poultry units, fell 11,900 tonnes or 2.0 per cent from 2020’s output, the 591,600 tonnes produced was nevertheless the third highest total on record. 2021’s total also exceeded the decade long average for March by 29,300 tonnes or 5.1 per cent.

Integrated poultry units was the only poultry feed subsector that bettered year previous production; the 210,200 tonnes of output was up 3,700 tonnes or 1.8 per cent. The most dramatic fall from year earlier levels within the sector occurred in turkey feed, where production dropped 4,500 tonnes or 38.5 per cent to 7,200 tonnes. All other poultry feed production also fell sharply to its lowest output for the month since 1993 of 14,500 tonnes, 3,000 tonnes or 17.1 per cent below a year earlier. Layer feed failed to match the record outputs from 2020 with production dropping 1,400 tonnes or 1.3 per cent to 109,800 tonnes, the second highest ever total for March, whilst for the second year in succession, broiler feed dropped below year earlier output; 2021 production, of 203,700 tonnes was 5,400 tonnes or 2.6 per cent down on a year previous. Finally, both chick rearing feed and poultry breeding and rearing feed production declined 500 tonnes below their outputs from the corresponding month a year earlier with the former dropping 3.8 per cent to 12,800 tonnes and the latter by 1.5 per cent to 33,200 tonnes.

For the first time in nine months, total sheep feed failed to surpass its year earlier production. The 154,800 tonnes of output was 7,200 tonnes or 4.4 per cent lower than that of 2020. Additionally, the total under review was 2,400 tonnes or 1.5 per cent below the March average for the last 10 years.

In contrast with the sector as a whole, production of blends for breeding sheep increased 900 tonnes or 13.2 per cent from a year previous to 7,700 tonnes, the second highest total for the month on record. Moreover, sheep protein concentrates matched 2020 returns of 900 tonnes. These were not enough to compensate for the considerable downturn in production from the sector’s largest category, compounds for breeding sheep, which had dropped 6,600 tonnes or 6.9 per cent from a year previous to 88,600 tonnes. Blends for growing and finishing sheep also fell sharply with production dropping by 1,000 tonnes or 14.5 per cent to 5,900 tonnes whereas compounds for growing and finishing sheep fell a less dramatic 600 tonnes or 1.1 per cent below year previous levels to 51,700 tonnes.

Total horse feed production fell sharply to its lowest level since

1993 of 14,900 tonnes, a drop of 5,100 tonnes or 25.5 per cent. Unsurprisingly, the total under review was also a sizeable 3,900 tonnes or 23.2 per cent below the 10 year average for the month.

Falling to its lowest level for six years, total other feed decreased by a substantial 10,700 tonnes or 28.3 per cent from a year earlier to 27,100 tonnes. Additionally, the current output was 4,000 tonnes or 13.8 per cent below the decade long average for March.

First Quarter overview

Total production of compounds, blends and concentrates, including integrated poultry units, during the first quarter of 2021 in Great Britain rose by 57,200 tonnes or 1.5 per cent from the same period of a year previous to 3,768,100 tonnes, the highest first quarter total since records were first kept in their current form. The total under review was also a significant 263,400 tonnes or 7.2 per cent greater than the 10 year average for the timeframe.

Total feed production during the first quarter of 2021 was made up of: 43.2 per cent poultry feed, 29.8 per cent cattle and calf feed, 13.3 per cent pig feed, 9.8 per cent sheep feed, 1.5 per cent horse feed and 2.5 per cent other feed.

At 1,120,900 tonnes, total first quarter cattle and calf feed production had fallen below year earlier levels for the second year in succession, in this instance, by 9,700 tonnes or 0.9 per cent. In spite of these consecutive drops in output, the current total was 9,100 tonnes or 0.8 per cent above the 10 year average for the period.

Despite the overall drop in production, as many sectors of cattle and calf feed surpassed year previous totals as decreased below them. Protein concentrates for cattle and calves did so by a considerable 2,400 tonnes or 9.7 per cent to increase to 27,200 tonnes whilst all other calf feed, at 53,800 tonnes, did so by an even greater margin of 6,900 tonnes or 14.7 per cent. The largest element of cattle and calf feed, compounds for dairy cows, rose by a more conservative 1,400 tonnes or 0.3 per cent to 547,700 tonnes of production. In contrast, all other cattle feed fell by 12,200 tonnes or 6.6 per cent to 171,700 tonnes, its lowest first quarter total since 2012. Additionally, production of blends for dairy cows decreased by 4,500 tonnes or 1.9 per cent to 234,900 tonnes and all other cattle blends dropped by 3,900 tonnes or 4.4 per cent to 85,500 tonnes.

Total pig feed was at its highest level for the first quarter of a year since 1999. The 502,800 tonnes of output was a notable 34,900 tonnes or 7.5 per cent greater than in 2020. The current Q1 output was an even larger 62,400 tonnes or 13.2 per cent higher than the 10 year average for the quarter.

Aside from pig protein concentrates, which matched the 3,100 tonnes of first quarter output from a year previous, all categories of pig feed bettered their respective returns from 2020. Pig finishing feed rose to its highest level for the period since 1998 of 247,500 tonnes, an increase of 13,700 tonnes or 5.9 per cent whilst pig breeding feed, at 115,700 tonnes, rose by 8,800 tonnes or 8.2 per cent to its highest output since 2002. There were also significant production increases from a year earlier from the remainder of the sector: pig starters and creep feed grew 2,100 tonnes or 15.0 per cent to 16,100 tonnes; link and early grower feed rose 5,900 tonnes or 27.7 per cent to 27,200 tonnes; and pig growing feed grew 4,400 tonnes or 5.0 per cent to 93,300 tonnes.

A record 1,629,300 tonnes of poultry feed was produced in the first quarter of 2021; Q1 production was up 18,800 tonnes or 1.2 per cent from a year earlier. Moreover, the total under review outstripped the decade long first quarter average by 175,600 tonnes or 11.4 per cent.

Only poultry protein concentrates and integrated poultry units failed to keep pace with their respective year earlier returns: the former’s output dropped sharply by 1,400 tonnes or 51.9 per cent to 1,300 tonnes and the latter’s did so by 42,400 tonnes or 7.3 per cent to 538,400 tonnes. Contrastingly, broiler feed, layer feed and poultry breeding and rearing feed were all at unparalleled outputs. Broiler feed bettered its year earlier return by 12,800 tonnes or 2.2 per cent and grew to 583,300 tonnes; layer feed did so by 25,600 tonnes or 9.2 per cent and rose to 304,700 tonnes; and poultry breeding and rearing feed did so by 6,000 tonnes or 6.8 per cent. Turkey feed production reversed the sharp decline witnessed in the first quarter of 2020, increasing from year earlier levels by 12,100 tonnes or 64.7 per cent to 30,800 tonnes. The sector was rounded off by a 3,700 tonnes or 11.0 per cent increase in chick rearing feed to 37,400 tonnes and a 2,300 tonnes or 2.3 per cent in all other poultry feed to 38,900 tonnes.

First quarter sheep feed amounted to 368,000 tonnes and surpassed its respective year earlier output by 24,900 tonnes or 7.3 per cent. 2021’s total outpaced the 10 year Q1 average by a smaller 6,300 tonnes or 1.7 per cent.

All sheep feed sectors comfortably bettered their corresponding tonnages from a year previously and yet none were close to surpassing the highs of other recent years. Compounds for breeding sheep, at 200,000 tonnes was 17,200 tonnes or 9.4 per cent up on a year previously whilst compounds for growing and finishing sheep were up 5,100 tonnes or 4.0 per cent to 131,400 tonnes. Blends for breeding sheep production rose sharply from a year earlier to 15,500 tonnes, a growth of 2,000 tonnes or 14.8 per cent whereas there were less substantial rises in both blends for growing and finishing sheep and sheep protein concentrates, with the former rising 600 tonnes or 3.2 per cent to 18,900 tonnes and the latter by 200 tonnes or 9.1 per cent to 2,400 tonnes.

Bettering its year earlier first quarter output by 7,000 tonnes or 14.6 per cent, total horse feed production rose to 54,900 tonnes. The total under review was also 3,200 tonnes or 6.0 per cent higher than the decade longer average for the timeframe.

Total other feed was only the second sector that fell below its respective year previous return for the first quarter. Production, at

92,200 tonnes, was a considerable 18,600 tonnes or 16.8 per cent down from the record high of 2020. However, the current total was still great enough to surpass the 10 year average for Q1, which it outpaced by 6,800 tonnes or 7.7 per cent.

Taken together the first quarter and March figures present a contrasting picture of the health of feed production at the beginning of 2021. The quarterly total, which is at a record high, coupled with the fact that all sectors were comfortably above the historic average for the period, suggest that production this year may progress to all time highs, especially when it is borne in mind that the corresponding statistical timeframe of 2020 had an additional week. However, the March figures cast doubt on whether this will be the case with production falling below year earlier levels, with only one sector surpassing its year earlier total and production and three sectors declining below the long term average for the month. It will be interesting to see which pattern continues as production figures for the second quarter begin to be released.

northern ireland February production overview

Total production of compounds, blends and concentrates during February 2021 in Northern Ireland rose to 218,600 tonnes, an increase of 4,700 tonnes or 2.2 per cent from a year previously and the second highest total for the month on record, behind only 2018’s return. 2021’s substantial output was 13,700 tonnes or 6.5 per cent greater than the 10 year average for the month.

Total feed production during the month of February 2021 was made up of: 54.0 per cent cattle and calf feed, 28.6 per cent poultry feed, 9.3 per cent pig feed, 4.6 per cent sheep feed 3.5 per cent other feed.

Total cattle and calf feed production in February amounted to 118,100 tonnes, the second highest total for the month on record (again behind 2018) and a growth of 7,300 tonnes or 6.6 per cent. The total under review was slightly only less ahead of the 10 year average for February, which it bettered by 6,800 tonnes or 5.9 per cent.

Only all other cattle compounds failed to surpass year previous outputs in the month under review, yet it still matched 2020 production of 600 tonnes. The largest sector, dairy cow compounds, rose by 2,600 tonnes or 5.8 per cent to 47,700 tonnes, its highest ever level. Output of other calf compounds, at 7,500 tonnes, also grew to record levels, an increase of 400 tonnes or 5.6 per cent. The remaining sectors all comfortably exceeded year previous production with output of beef coarse mixes and blends growing by 2,200 tonnes or 9.4 per cent to 25,700 tonnes; dairy coarse mixes or blends increasing by 1,400 tonnes or 6.7 per cent; and beef cattle compounds rising by 600 tonnes or 4.4 per cent to 14,400 tonnes.

At 20,400 tonnes of output, total pig feed for February had failed to match the record output produced a year earlier. Current production was 700 tonnes or 3.3 per cent down on a year previously and yet was still at the second highest level for the month; this was only the second time production had surpassed 20,000 tonnes in the month under review. The historically high production levels saw that the decade long average for the month was outpaced by a substantial 3,600 tonnes or 19.4 per cent.

Despite the overall downturn in production, pig breeding feed output rose by a considerable 600 tonnes or 24.0 per cent to 3,100 tonnes, its highest level since 1999. There was also a 100 tonnes or 3.0 per cent growth in pig growing feed, up to 3,400 tonnes. There was a corresponding 100 tonnes fall in pig link and early grower feed, down 3.2 per cent to 3,000 tonnes of output, whilst more significant declines were present across the remainder of the sector. Pig finishing feed and pig starter and creep feed both fell sharply from their respective record high outputs from a year previously, with the former dropping 800 tonnes or 8.7 per cent down to 8,400 tonnes and the latter falling 400 tonnes or 13.8 per cent to 2,500 tonnes.

For the second year in succession, total poultry feed production for February fell below year earlier levels. At 62,400 tonnes of production output was 2,200 tonnes or 3.4 per cent down on 2020. Despite this, the total under review was 3,400 tonnes or 5.6 per cent higher than the 10 year average for the month.

Although production as a whole was down on a year previously, as many categories of poultry feed surpassed year earlier levels as fell below them. Chick rearing feed production rose to 2,000 tonnes, outstripping 2020’s output by 200 tonnes or 11.1 per cent. Additionally, turkey and other poultry feed, at 2,900 tonnes, bettered year earlier returns by 300 tonnes or 11.5 per cent. In contrast, layer and breeder feed production declined by 1,900 tonnes or 7.9 per cent to 22,200 tonnes whilst broiler feed output had reduced by 800 tonnes or 2.2 per cent to 35,300 tonnes. Both these sectors were at their lowest levels since 2017.

Total sheep feed production for February was only the second sector to surpass year previous levels. The 10,100 tonnes of outputs outstripped year earlier production by a substantial 700 tonnes or 7.5 per cent. However, this increase was not enough to see it better the 10 year average for the period, which it dropped 100 tonnes or 0.9 per cent below.

In spite of the overall increase, breeding sheep compounds were the only subsector to better the output of a year previously, doing so by a considerable 2,200 tonnes or 56.4 per cent, up to 6,100 tonnes, the highest total for the month since 2013. Coarse mixes and blends for sheep fell to their lowest level since 2005 of 1,800 tonnes, a drop of 300 tonnes or 14.3 per cent from a year earlier. Finally, growing and finishing compounds for sheep decreased by a considerable 1,200 tonnes or 36.4 per cent to 2,100 tonnes.

Total other feed output fell 500 tonnes or 6.2 per cent from a year previously to 7,600 tonnes of production. This total, despite being lower than that of the past three years, was exactly level with the 10 year average for the month under review.