TRENDLESS OR TREND-DRIVEN? The Future of Fashion Forecasting
Peter Kecskes 1913741 AD6603: Fashion Futures
The start of the 2020s marked a pivotal point in modern history where we saw the world around us undergo a transformation that spread across our society, culture, and politics, and through this, impacted the business of fashion. With a global pandemic causing fatalities across nations, and the doom of an accelerated climate crisis we started to see a change in the ways consumers interact with fashion. A conversation around an entirely trendless fashion future was gaining momentum as leaders of the luxury market announced their parting with the traditional fashion calendar and seasonality as a whole. The consumer’s interest in a brand’s aesthetic appeal is now counterbalanced by their laser focus on the company’s brand message, social views, and business practices. This idea of conscious shopping and longevity, contextualised in timeless design was what made people step away from the fast-evolving cycle of trends in fast-fashion. Guap.co.uk has identified this behavioural change and believes that to replace trends “conscious shoppers are turning to seasonless fashion”. (guap.co.uk, 2021) The issue has already divided industry professionals with some conforming to this change and some questioning the appeal of the concept. When you think about seasonless clothing your mind immediately goes to safe designs, neutral colourways and commercial cuts and silhouettes. The main concern is that for many, fashion fills a purpose of bringing excitement, newness and change into their lives and an opportunity to represent themselves in a way that is authentic to them in that moment. Fashion in its essence is a documentation of the spirit of the times. With seasonless clothing some argue that you are presented with a visual appeal that is limited. Nonetheless, the ideology that is brought to the surface by this cultural shift must not go unnoticed as it is underpinned by raw data and fact. According to Sanika Tipnis since “the advent of digital media, it has become increasingly clear that fashion is disconnected from traditional seasons” meaning that consumers are no longer influenced in their purchase patterns by their seasonal needs. (Tipnis, 2020) Instead, novelty and creativity take the lead. Additionally, many micro trends targeting the fast-fashion sector are still formulated with a gender binary in mind which proposes a threat to alienate young consumers, particularly Generation Z, 79% of which purchases clothing assigned to the opposite gender. (Robinson, 2021) As gender neutrality, sustainability and slow fashion continue to be the buzzwords most used around the practice of design we cannot help but question how exactly we are going to engage with clothing and trend in this new state of normality. Is an entirely trendless landscape the future of fashion or is the notion of being trendless a trend in itself?
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Figure 1. Female Model in Knit Dress (Source: Agolde, 2021).
If we reflect on fashion from a historical point of view, we can clearly identify that the cycle of trends has played a pivotal part in our understanding of the art form. Shifts in dress such as the transition from pre-war fashion to Christian Dior’s revolutionary ‘New Look’ is a perfect example of this. Although arguably the purpose of fashion has always been change itself, the field dedicated to the prediction of this change, commonly referred to as trend forecasting was only first introduced in the 1930s by James Laver. (Wallis, n.d.) The process of forecasting the future in the 20th century will have been one that follows a direct route of influence as the fashion system had a “distinct centre from which innovations and modifications radiate outward”. (Revell DeLong, n.d.) This would mean that trend-related data would often come from ideas proposed by visionary designers or by the highest social classes and this information would trickle down to the rest of society in a gradual way. In the new age of fashion business to succeed trend forecasters must carry out processes much more complex than this, which gives them the ability to pin down tangible changes for their clients. Despite the fact that influential designers still pay part in the trend forecasting method, inspiration provided by social platforms and online communities is considered equally valuable. Thefashionetwork.com claims that social media is responsible for “reframing the infrastructure” of a once “twodimensional and one-sided industry”. (thefashionetwork.com, 2018) The shift detailed here refers to the relationship between brands and consumers. Customers no longer want to be dictated to. They strive to establish brand relationships that are interactive so that they can contribute to the global conversation. Younger generations act as innovators, rather than adapters on these social platforms as they create a code of communications and a code of dress amongst themselves that often completely disengages from mainstream fashion trends on runway shows or in print magazines. We are experiencing a new wave of social media culture where predominantly Generation Z users are creating and turning around micro-trends at a much faster rate than previous demographics. Social media platform TikTok has surpassed over 1 billion active accounts this year, opening up the fashion conversation globally. Its effect on the industry is highly significant as young people are capitalising on its features such as the ‘create’ function to use as a creative outlet to self-express. By posting images and videos of themselves wearing the brands they invest in and showcasing their styling choices they reach other users with a similar fashion sense. These online communities all cultivate a sense of belonging by creating a uniform that appropriates elements of the fashion zeitgeist and popular culture in a way that is unique to them. Pockets of identity are created on social media as a product of this which further complicates the role of the trend forecaster. The bubble up effect summarises this concept with a theory that highlights the process when “fashion innovation and creativity drawn from subcultures are integrated into mass culture”. (thedocialitesmagazine.com, n.d.) The complexities of forecasting to a youth market lie here, as not only does the ‘new look’ change with an exponential rate, but there are many ‘new looks’ to pay mind to that belong to varied fashion cliques and all co-exist in this heightened digital environment. Generation Z alone is reported to spend “10.6 hours engaging with online content” daily, an extensive period of time which allows for the facilitation of such accelerated social media culture. (Hughes, n.d.) Page 3
Figure 2. Gucci Fashion Show at Milan Fashion Week (Source: The Guardian, 2020)
In order to successfully predict fashion futures, trend forecasters must understand the importance of investing time in researching these emerging fads and subcultures. Particularly within the youth market, the place where trends sit culturally has evolved. Fashion trends have passed their hierarchal connotations, meaning that the number or variety of garments an individual owns no longer indicate wealth in a similar way to the past, due to the accessibility of fashion in our current economy. Instead, what it means to be on trend revolves more around an individual’s cultural sensitivity and the speed of adaptation in reference to the latest look. Social media has not been the only technological breakthrough advancing the role of the trend forecaster. Technological advancements have implemented the fashion business for decades, and trend forecasting is no exception from this. The 2020s marks a period in modern history where basic AI technologies surround us in just about every corner of our lives. The rise of artificial intelligence has disrupted industries by minimising human labour on simple, repetitive tasks that can be programmed to be completed. As for the forecasting industry, many agencies have already integrated AI into their services. Thematical research and image research, powered by AI allows corporations to scour for data in an efficient way across all social platforms. This idea is endorsed by Marr, who acknowledges that “trend forecasting is typically labourintensive” and that “brands are reshaping their approach to product design and development” via machine learning in an article for Forbes Magazine. (Marr, 2021) What this means for businesses is that through replicating human intelligence, bots have the ability to complete time consuming tasks such as gathering inspiration imagery or constructing colour palettes. As long as there is a relatively simplistic overarching theme, for example a key colour or a pattern, AI can relieve that work load off human fashion editors. Some trailblazing platforms, such as T-Fashion use elaborate analytical market research to determine the commercial validity of new collections. The future proofing method in this instance involves research into the brand’s target consumers and their online activity. Once this data is gathered the intelligence breaks its research down into product categories that are selected based on their popularity amongst the targeted market and the products’ individual sales performance from the past. Corporations like T-Fashion are redefining what it means to cater to future customers through the act of “validating creativity with market data”. (Magalit, 2021)
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Figure 3. Ecommerce Image of Jina Chiffon Skirt (Source: Garmentory, 2019
Despite these innovations made in the efforts of maintaining a balanced relationship between consumer and product, fashion lovers globally are raising questions whether there still is a place for trends in our wardrobes. The question remains, how has the descriptor ‘trendless’ become one of the most overused terms in current fashion, and what does its popularity mean for trend forecasters? The intention behind the trendless fashion movement roots directly in how consumers are feeling in our current climate of life during a global pandemic. Everchanging limitations are still placed upon basic human interaction internationally, which influences many to stay away from purchasing the new and shiny things that we would normally show off at opportunities of socialization. Consumers are busy navigating their lives through unprecedented times, which means that naturally they will be less inclined to focus on wearing the right colour this season. In times like these we are shifting our priorities to rank practicality and comfort higher on our list of preferences in the way we dress. There are numerous influential factors that have shifted consumer culture in the 2020s and the conversation around innovating fashion’s landscape has emerged from all areas of the industry. According to Sohini Dey in the post-pandemic world “values and ideas that persist across seasons” are here to replace tangible trends. (Dey, 2021) Amongst others, Dey names inclusivity, genderless design, and sustainability as some of the key values that consumers will continue to look for before they make their final purchases. The possibility of an entirely trendless fashion future started gaining more and more momentum after trend forecasting agency K-HOLE coined the praise ‘normcore’ and reported on the in-vogue notion of being trendless. K-HOLE’s stripped back design concept targeted individuals that valued the “idea of conformity” and comfort over the “aspiration of individuality”, which particularly during national lockdowns, covered a growing demographic. (Cronsjö, 2014) Upon researching into trendless fashion design what we might come across are garments with a strong loungewear inspiration, muted, tonal colourways and many pieces that one might consider wardrobe essentials. They gain their popularity with the consumer from having a versatile quality, making it easy to style with your cosy layering pieces in the fall and still be able to seamlessly transition them into your summer wardrobe when the warmer months come around. The term capsule wardrobe was coined by fashion icon Susie Faux in the 1970s, a term that refers to the concept of owning a limited amount of clothes that are all interchangeable with one another. Oftentimes consumers associate trendless design with having a capsule wardrobe as the concept itself was designed purely for a practicality purpose with “the working woman specifically in mind”. (Brass, 2016) In the 1980s Donna Karan was the fashion designer that dedicated her career to designing garments for the everyday woman. A well-tailored blazer, a bodysuit with a flattering cut or a classic button-down shirt all became the perfect modern-day illustration of sophisticated style and an understated design aesthetic. Karan’s 1985 ‘Seven Easy Pieces’ collection was what captured the attention of the general public as what she was doing, designing for regular people with a purpose was seen as hugely revolutionary. Page 7
Figure 4. DKNY RTW Spring (Source: WWD, 1989).
The garments that the models walked the runway in could easily be seen on consumers today with its key items being pieces such as the wrap dress, described as the proof that “a simple, streamlined garment could work both at the office and at play”. (Yotka, 2016) In the 2020s there are numerous fashion companies that carry the Donna Karan legacy by creating collections of often higher price points that are great in their quality and recreate those celebrated clean and simple lines. One of these corporations is Pact, a sustainable label that supporters of the trendless fashion movements often favour due to their elevated line of basic apparel. Pact’s commitment to producing garments that are made, sold, and distributed in an eco-friendly manner is highly impressive and meets many of Generation Z’s criteria when it comes to their shopping preferences. From researching into businesses that dominate the seasonless and trendless fashion market one could not help but realise that the clothing designed by all of them seem to fit a similar description, meaning that there is not a lot of newness that is introduced through their product ranges. It could be argued that for many consumers this would dull their shopping experience as they will be unable to find pieces that are truly visually stimulating. On the flip side, their target audience might find comfort in browsing a limited collection of garments. Perhaps consumers are reconnecting with a more simplistic approach to dressing today as it relieves them of the pressure of having to selfexpress during a time when people are still trying to find their place. Some fashion brands are a listening ear to these shifts, as observed by Leandra M. Cohen, who claims that the rise of trendless designs on recent runways are “a reflection of the changing purpose of fashion week. (Cohen, 2019)
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Figure 5. The Start of a Runway Presentation (Source: HIGHXTAR, 2020
Although labels from Gucci to The Row back ideas proposed by a trendless system, there seems to be a contradictory response happening on social media. From analysing our digital landscape, it seems that regardless of the state of the outside world, consumers are looking for opportunities to elevate and introduce newness into their fashion game online. Holly Tenser, buying manager for Browns Fashion supports this point with the following statement: “as long as luxury fashion exists, there will be trends” and adds that “Instagram and our reliance on it has increased our appetite for trends”. (Tenser, n.d.) Journalist Matthew Smith has a similar viewpoint and details that trends “allow us to shift cultural currents and ultimately depict an underlying intuition” so there always is a deeper meaning behind them, and without them our fashion history would purely be “a lineage of sameness”. (Smith, 2016) In his article Smith adds that in his understanding, trends are “a documentation of progress experimentation, and the now” and that it is what allows us to connect with people around us in that very moment. (Smith, 2016) Examining the issue from a business perspective the conclusion can be made that it is crucial for corporations to pay mind to the conversations their clients are engaging in, whether it is on fashion, culture or other, as it is a direct gateway to their mind and their values. Colleen Dilen acknowledges the importance of such business insight in her writing and narrates it the following way: “trends provide a birds-eye view of perceptions and behaviours of current and potential audiences”. (Dilen, 2019) Whether brands produce trend-driven clothing or not, consumers, particularly of younger demographics will always find a way to circulate those garments amongst themselves and on social media and attach, on a micro level, a cultural message to them. A great example of this is the popularity of clothing brands Dickies and Carhart in recent years. For decades the labels produced exclusively workwear. The majority of their garments could be considered trendless as they were designed purely with a practicality purpose in mind with no distinguishing features in terms of their look. A grey pair or cargo pants, a hoodie and a basic T-shirt all received an approval by the Generation Z masses as it fed into current collective interests such as utility dressing and workwear, which has given quite a trenddriven message to the garments. What it means to wear a Dickies T-shirt gained a different connotation, showcasing us that Generation Z is still tuned into the frequency of a trendless fashion landscape with their thinking. Intending to find answers directly from a consumer level, a survey was conducted amongst a Generation Z target market relating to the issue. Regarding the psychology behind the subject, a question was proposed on what makes Generation Z buy into fashion trends, to which 66% of respondees named the social pressure of fitting in as their primary motivation. Additionally, all respondees stated that they find how trendy they are perceived on social media somewhat important to them. The second part of the survey consisted of targeted questions, designed to obtain information responding to trendless clothing. More than half of the participants showed a lack of interest in purchasing trendless garments, with only 32% of all participants having made a purchase from a trendless fashion brand. To summarize data collected from this survey, the conclusion was made that young people, particularly Generation Z still show an appreciation for trends as part of the fashion system. Page 11
Figure 6. Image of Dickies Workwear (Source: Instagram, 2021)
With an aim to further interrogate the issue, a decision was made to search for answers in the depth of the fashion industry. Robbie Sinclair, creative director of Youth at New York based trend forecasting agency, Fashion Snoops has agreed to participate in an interview conducted with the aim of gathering key insight into the future of the market. Firstly, we discussed the psychology of trends and the various reasons that corporations continue to buy into them in 2021 and beyond. It is agreed that people rely on trend services as they provide them with structure, guidance, and a confirmation that they are making the right decisions for their brand. According to Robbie Sinclair there has been a shift in consumer culture that has disrupted the global forecasting industry in recent years. “Consumers are demanding to be seen rather than being dictated to by big companies so for people in trend and design positions now it is about asking the consumer what they need to feel better. It is no longer about those flash in the pan trends anymore, it has to be more meaningful to relate to people.” During this interview my intention was to reflect on where trends came from and learn about where industry predicts they are going next. As discussed previously, creative influences in the past would trickle down from high-end, visionary designers and couturiers, meaning that in-vogue colours, patterns and silhouettes would reach the wealthy first before they reached the rest of the social classes. The way in which trend related data flows in the 21st century does not align with this model, a shift that was acknowledged by Sinclair in our interview: “It has all flipped now. If you talk about aristocratic society influencing the poorer masses, it is almost like the reverse now. You have brands like Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Balenciaga where they take something that they have seen on a skater kid that they might have ripped, and they plagiarize it and stamp a $2000 price tag on it. It is a strange dynamic to wrap your head around, but I think it is almost bad taste to be influenced by hierarchy or by money now, you seem much more creatively intellectual if you reference regular people.” After raising these comprehensive points Sinclair added the following: “I'm from a really poor, working-class background, so on a personal level it is really important to me to explore my history and my identity and think about what it means to be elegant, or what it means to be opulent or regal. I think it is important for trend forecasters to have an interest in all aspects of creativity, whatever that looks like.” To wrap up the interview we engaged in a conversation regarding trendless fashion, more specifically whether garments with season- and genderless qualities are here to stay in the post-pandemic world. “I think trend is a tricky word in itself because if you think about the word trend it makes you think that it has shelf life. The word trend makes you think of a cycle and then it stops, and it gets replaced by another trend. The word shift for example has different connotations.” Sinclair added. According to my interviewee, trendless garments have gained attention in recent years due to consumer demand for neutral designs and colour palettes that calm the chaos around us. Robbie Sinclair concluded his answer with the following statement: “I am sure on a consumer level people don’t think about it like this, but trendless fashion is a trend in itself because it comes from a problem and ends in a solution, even if the solution is a beige hoodie.”
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There are various factors discussed within this essay that are set to impact the future role of a fashion forecaster and upon conclusion we gain a thorough understanding of how relevant their role remains within the fashion sector. As our outlook on our near future remains fogged over, businesses are predicted to increase their reliance on trend services. The role that trend forecasters fill in in a greater fashion system continues to evolve as they guide businesses in the direction of making better decisions for their own brands. In 2021 and beyond their focus intensifies on providing solutions that relate directly to the bigger picture as trend narratives gain a deeper meaning. By reducing the research time of trend forecasters using AI technologies they gain the ability to focus their efforts on consulting businesses and providing other personalised services. Although a trendless design aesthetic may remain in sight for the near future, as evidenced by thorough research and investigation this is not a shift that is set to disrupt the forecasting industry as a whole. Futurists that aim to excel at their craft must address how differently consumers feel about their relationship with clothing. We are living in a new world where brands and creatives must revaluate their relationship with their audiences. Prior to this current state, it might have been enough to understand how our consumers think, but in 2021 and beyond how they feel becomes much more significant for forecasting businesses. Consumers are no longer interested in depthless forecasts with a short shelf life, they are looking to be understood and catered to in a real, meaningful way. The perfect candidate for the trend forecaster’s role therefore is an individual that can look beyond the print, pattern and design and detect the cultural message that lies below the surface.
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List of References Brass. (2016, January 10). A Brief History of the Capsule Wardrobe. Retrieved from thatsbrass.wordpress.com: https://thatsbrass.wordpress.com/2016/01/10/a-brief-history-of-thecapsule-wardrobe/ Cohen, L. M. (2019, November 9). Why Was NYFW Trendless This Season? Retrieved from repeller.com: https://repeller.com/nyfw-trends/ Cronsjö, H. (2014, May 23). Normcore - is the latest trend being trendless? Retrieved from theblogazine.com: http://www.theblogazine.com/2014/05/normcore-is-the-latest-trend-beingtrendless/ Dey, S. (2021, June 30). The Era of Trendlessness. Retrieved from thevoiceoffashion.com: https://thevoiceoffashion.com/centrestage/features/the-era-of-trendlessness--4523 Dilen, C. (2019, June 26). Why Understanding Trends Is Critical For Cultural Organization Success. Retrieved from collendilen.com: https://www.colleendilen.com/2019/06/26/why-trend-data-isrequired-for-cultural-organization-success/ guap.co.uk. (2021, October 18). The Trend Decline: Aligning Our Wardrobes With Our Values. Retrieved from guap.co.uk: https://guap.co.uk/are-trends-going-out-of-trend/ Hughes, A. (n.d.). Gen Z Engage With 10.6 Hours of Online Content a Day. Retrieved from omnidigitalmarketing.co.uk: https://omnidigitalmarketing.co.uk/gen-z-engage-10-6-hours-onlinecontent-day/ Katz, S. (n.d.). On Trend Forecasting. Retrieved from 1moq.com: 1moq.com/premium/on-trendforecasting Magalit, J. (2021, November). Fashion Trend Forecasting with AI. Retrieved from tucmag.net: https://www.tucmag.net/fashion/fashion-trend-forecasting-with-ai/ Marr, B. (2021, March 26). Three AI And Tech Trends That Will Transform The Fashion Industry. Retrieved from forbes.com: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2021/03/26/three-ai-andtech-trends-that-will-transform-fashion-industry/?sh=fcd1470746c9 Revell DeLong, M. (n.d.). Theories of Fashion. Retrieved from fashion-history.lovetoknow.com: fashion-history.lovetoknow.com/fashion-theory-eras/theories-fashion Robinson, B. (2021, September 22). 79% of Gen Z students embrace buying clothes assigned to the opposite gender, UNiDAYS reveals. Retrieved from fenews.co.uk: https://www.fenews.co.uk/skills/79-of-gen-z-students-embrace-buying-clothes-assigned-to-theopposite-agenda-unidays-gen-z-fashion-report-reveals/ Smith, M. (2016, March 24). The Importance of Trends. Retrieved from mattymatt.co: http://mattymatt.co/the-importance-of-trends/ Tenser, H. (n.d.). Are trends no longer in fashion? Retrieved from harpersbazaar.com: harpersbazaar.com/uk/fashion/a35436082/how-relevant-are-fashion-trends thedocialitesmagazine.com. (n.d.). Bubble-Up Effects of Subculture Fashion. Retrieved from thesocialitesmagazine.com: http://thesocialitesmagazine.com/society-culture/bubble-effectssubculture-fashion/ thefashionetwork.com. (2018, July 11). How Social Media Has Changed the Game in the Fashion Industry. Retrieved from thefashionetwork.com: https://thefashionetwork.com/how-social-mediahas-changed-the-game-in-the-fashion-industry/ Tipnis, S. (2020, June 30). What Is Seasonless Fashion - And Why Are You About to See It Everywhere? Retrieved from savoirflair.com: https://www.savoirflair.com/fashion/502832/what-isseasonless-fashion Wallis, L. (n.d.). What is trend forecasting, and why is it relevant for my brand? Retrieved from flaunter.com: https://www.flaunter.com/blog/trend_forecasting/ Yotka, S. (2016, June 6). Donna Karan Names Her Favorite Secen Pieces of Her Career. Retrieved from vogue.com: https://www.vogue.com/slideshow/donna-karan-seven-career-highlights-coldshoulder
List of Image References Photographer Unknown. (2020). Female Model in Knit Dress [Photograph]. Retrieved from Agolde. https://agolde.com/products/90s-bow-leg-sweatpant-toffee-heather Rex/Shutterstock. (2020). Gucci Fashion Show at Milan Fashion Week [Photograph]. Retrieved from The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2020/may/25/gucci-fashion-week-seasonless-cutsshows Garmentory. (2019). Ecommerce Image of Jina Chiffon Skirt [Photograph]. Retrieved from Garmentory. https://www.garmentory.com/sale/all/skirts/244276-jina-skirt-chiffon-silk WWD Archive. (1989). DKNY RTW Spring 1989 [Photograph]. Retrieved from WWD. https://wwd.com/fashion-news/designer-luxury/gallery/30-years-of-fashion-from-donna-karan/donnakaran-7431574-portrait/ HIGHXTAR. (2020). The Start of a Runway Presentation [Photograph]. Retrieved from HIGHXTAR. https://highxtar.com/the-new-fashion-weeks-will-be-hybrids/?lang=en Dickies. (2021). Image of Dickies Workwear [Photograph]. Retrieved from Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/p/CWV7RoIrJ85/