Open to Question

Decarbonisation deliberations

Following the publication of Vaillant’s white paper on decarbonising home heating, we talk to one of its joint authors, technologies and training director Mark Wilkins, about how the heating industry can respond to the challenge of helping the country move away from its reliance on fossil fuels.

Last month saw Vaillant contribute to the ongoing debate about the future of the UK domestic heating market by the publication of a white paper – ‘Decarbonising Home Heating in the UK’ – which aims to offer a balanced overview of the mix of heating technologies. Divided into three chapters – Heat Pumps, Hydrogen and Hybrid Heating Systems – the document aims to help installers and their customers make knowledgeable choices about how they can heat their homes.

The white paper is technology neutral, but with all the recent talk of heat pumps and a potential future ban on gas boilers, do you think that the government is equally open-minded?

MW The White Paper recognises that there is no one single solution. The government originally followed a strategy of electrification, with a recent swerve to green gasses and hydrogen, but now I think they are starting to realise that there is some middle ground. We have boilers, we have heat pumps, we have controls and we have connected solutions, and the way forward is to take a technology agnostic approach. I think the most important thing is to look at each application and base the technology on the requirement of the property.

It’s generally accepted that any administration is more likely to listen to an industry if it is able to speak with one voice. Do you think there’s much difference in the views of Vaillant and your major competitors?

MW I think broadly we’re singing from the same hymn sheet, although we might be out of tune a little bit here and there! The key messages coming through loud and clear are about training, upskilling and reducing our energy usage, but there will always be vested interests. There will be those companies who don’t offer heat pumps who will be advocating more the hydrogen side of things, whereas those who don’t have boilers will be advocating heat pumps. At Vaillant, we’re in the fortunate position to have both, so we can take that technology agnostic stance.

A lot of the UK housing stock is going to need quite a big investment to get up to a level where heat pumps are going to be a viable option. Are those costs ultimately going to prove prohibitive?

MW There are a lot of challenges, but if decarbonisation was going to be easy, we would have done it by now! When we look at UK properties, while there are a large number that are suitable for heat pumps – the majority of properties built between 1920 and 1980 – there are many where it would be very difficult for one to be installed without significant investment. And then there are others that would need some investment of one degree or another.

What we can’t argue about is the need to make all properties more energy efficient. Using less energy has got to be the first step for everybody, whether that’s loft insulation or cavity wall insulation. There are grants and funds available and there are organisations like the Energy Savings Trust who can help homeowners understand what needs to be done.

Any installer who visits a home is also a touch point for consumers. If they’ve had the right training, the installer should be talking to the householder about what more they can do to reduce their energy use. Perhaps that might involve making improvements to their existing system – adjusting the size of radiators, for example. It’s about devising a road map to ensure that the property is better suited to a lower temperature heating system. As we know, heat pumps work really well at a lower temperature, but condensing boilers also work brilliantly at 55°C, so you’re going to improve energy efficiency whether it’s a heat pump, a gas boiler or a hydrogen boiler.

It was once thought that while heat pumps might be costly to install, they would be much cheaper to run. However, it now seems to be accepted that most users will experience next to no savings on running costs. Do you agree?

MW At the moment running costs are probably about par with traditional gas boilers, but the chances of improving on boiler efficiency are quite small, whereas we can still improve and refine the efficiency of the heat pump. I’m sure that will happen over time.

One challenge is that we are still very reliant on gas to produce electricity – so as gas prices go up, electricity prices go up too. So we need to break that link, with more solar power, offshore and onshore wind. Another issue is that electricity currently carries disproportionately high levies for decarbonisation, so it’s probably fair to switch some of those levies to gas, but that’s going to risk many more people getting into fuel poverty, and that then becomes a huge political challenge.

Do you think the cost of heat pumps themselves will reduce in time?

MW I think that’s wishful thinking. Heat pump technology is very similar to that of an air conditioning unit or a fridge, which is already bigger than the 1.6m boiler market in the UK – so we’re already at scale for the components. Yes, we’re going to learn how to make them quicker and more efficiently, but that will only take a small percentage off the end price.

Another opportunity will come when more installers get involved and market forces start to work, but, while there will be some small change over time, I can’t see a big price reduction happening unless we want to encourage cheap Chinese imports – which would affect quality and product reliability.

We understand that demand for Vaillant heat pumps is outstripping supply at the moment, but is the government’s target of 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2030 realistic?

MW It’s going to be tough. We are on the back of the global pandemic, and there are all sorts of shortages in the supply chain, but hopefully it represents a short term blip. In the long-term, I think the investment we’ve announced recently – £3m in a new heat pump production facility in Belper – will ensure that we can play our role in helping the industry to meet that 600,000 target.

But I think there are two bigger challenges. Firstly, taking the customer on the journey with us. It’s a great theoretical conversation to say we’re going to be selling 600,000 heat pumps a year – but where is the demand going to come from? We can do our bit with our TV campaign, and our competitors can do a bit too, but it shouldn’t be up to manufacturers who have a vested interest in any one technology to educate the market. This is where the government and organisations like the Energy Saving Trust need to step up.

Mark Wilkins, Vaillant technologies and training director

The other massive challenge is training installers. We have something like 1070 MCS accredited installers today, but we need something closer to 35,000 by 2028 – and that’s a massive step up in numbers. Installers have broadly got the skills needed to fit heat pumps, but it’s about designing and sizing the systems. You need to get your radiator sizes right, your flow rates right and your pipe sizing too. It takes a bit more planning and forethought.

Training can represent a big cost to installers. You have argued that there should be more funding to help cover those costs, but are our decision makers receptive to that argument?

MW We’re told by the Treasury that there is no money for anything. It would have been a different ask, I’m sure, if we were not on the back of a global pandemic. However, I think there is a willingness to engage and there is an understanding. And while we have a limited pot of money available, it’s about spending that wisely. In my view, rewarding and recognising the efforts that installers make to retrain and upskill to help the country deliver decarbonisation is definitely something that should be worthy of consideration. So let’s find a fiscal policy that will work to incentivise and reward those who invest in training.

How optimistic are you that the heating industry can help the country to realise its decarbonisation goals?

MW I’ve been in this industry since I was 15 and I’ve seen a lot of changes in that time. It’s an industry that’s willing to accept change, to embrace it and make the best of it. There are some massive challenges ahead, but it’s not just this industry – it’s a whole society thing and consumer education is of primary importance.

It is a massive challenge, but the prize for success or, worse still, the booby prize for failure, is unthinkable. We’re already seeing flooding and bush fires – all directly attributable to climate change. Yes, climate change goes in circles, but it’s the speed of change since the industrial revolution which is the problem. Reducing our carbon intensity can make a difference, but we first have to recognise the scale of the problem and the scale of the challenge.