PHIT FLASH REPORT ON CVD AND CANCER MORTALITY
CVD and Cancer Mortality in Birmingham 2002-2008 Measurement against Vital Signs targets 2009-2011
VERSION CONTROL AND DOCUMENT GOVERNANCE Version
1
Date
26th January 2010
Status
Complete
Prepared by
Andrew Baker
Authorised by
Iris Fermin
Summary The Vital Signs mortality targets for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are set up to determine the extent of reduction of deaths of those under 75. This age range is chosen as these deaths can be viewed as avoidable. The information for this report is taken from the compendium indicators of the Clinical and Health Outcomes Knowledge Base (NCHOD www.nchod.nhs.uk) Overall Birmingham is performing well in achieving the targets for reduction in CVD with consistent reductions over recent years. However, the situation with cancer is more variable.
Cardiovascular Disease The measure being investigated is the Mortality Rate per 100,000 (directly age standardised) population from heart disease and stroke and related disease in people aged under 75. The agreed targets are shown in the table below.
Birmingham East and North Heart of Birmingham South Birmingham
2009 82.86 106.00 84.61
2010 76.20 99.00 81.61
2011 69.60 94.00 78.61
All three PCTs follow a pretty strong linear trend of decline in CVD mortality rate and are on course to meet the agreed targets. Their progress is shown below: Figure 1 - Birmingham East and North - CVD Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
Figure 2 - Heart of Birmingham - CVD Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
Figure 3 - South Birmingham - CVD Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
Cancer The measure being investigated is the Mortality Rate per 100,000 (directly age standardised) population from cancer in people aged under 75. The agreed targets are shown in the table below.
Birmingham East and North Heart of Birmingham South Birmingham
2009 119.15 122.00 119.00
2010 116.10 120.00 117.00
2011 113.10 119.00 113.00
Determining the likelihood of the PCTs hitting the targets for cancer is more complicated. The trends over the past seven years are non-linear and although overall they show a decline it is unclear whether this will lead to the targets been met. Plots have been made showing the trend over all seven years but caution should be attached to these trend lines. Figure 4 - Birmingham East and North - Cancer Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
Birmingham East and North appears to be on track to meet its targets for reduction in Cancer Mortality with the overall trend and the changes in the past three years showing a rate of decline that will bring the PCT in below the targets.
Figure 5 - Heart of Birmingham Cancer Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
Heart of Birmingham shows a weak trend for the past seven years that indicates the overall rate of improvement is not enough to meet the agreed targets. However, encouragingly there has been a significant decline since 2005 and the 2008 figure already comes close to the 2010 target and is below the target for 2009. If the recent improvements can be sustained then the targets are likely to be met.
Figure 6 - South Birmingham Cancer Mortality Rate (Directly Age Standardised)
The overall seven year trend for South Birmingham suggests that the initial targets for 2009 and 2010 may be met but that this progress is not enough to reach the 2011 target. A caution that needs to be applied to this is that from 2006 the cancer mortality rate has increased each year. This recent change must be reversed for the targets to be met.