PIPELINE NEWS NORTH SEPT 2017 by Pipeline News North

Great balls of bitumen: Researchers may have pipeline-free solution for Alberta crude / 9 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2017

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SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

The purposes of the society “Fort St John Petroleum Association” are: Membership To create a nonprofit fraternal organization for educational, benevolent and social purposes. • To create a medium through which the society members may express themselves in Social activities, Educational pursuits and Athletic endeavours. • To contribute to the community in supporting worthwhile projects as decided upon from time to time by the society. • To provide entertainment that is enjoyable, instructive and beneficial to its members and families. • To encourage a spirit of good fellowship among the society members. Membership Requirements Regular Member: a member who is directly engaged and derives 85% of his subsistence from any of the following petroleum industry enterprises:

• Manufacturing • Exploration

• Production • Marketing

• Drilling • Contracting

• Construction • Consulting

• Services • Supplies

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO BECOME A MEMBER CONTACT US AT Fort St. John Petroleum Association, Box 6122, Fort St. John BC V1J 4H6 Visit our website: fsjpetroleumassociation.com Or find us on Facebook: Fort St. John Petroleum Association

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

COMMENTARY

Canadian Oil and Gas Wanted Abroad

he world can count on Canada for a lot of things— humility and quiet pride; hospitality and friendliness; intellect; and, perhaps most of all, our constant need to apologize. We don’t give ourselves enough credit and often let others determine our sense of worth. Truthfully, we’re better than that. When it comes to energy, we’re leaders in developing cuttingedge technology that produces some of the most sustainable and environmentally-responsible oil and natural gas on the planet. That’s how the world sees us, even if it is not how we see ourselves. According to the 2017 Global Energy Pulse, a first-of-its-kind survey conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Canadian oil and natural gas are the preferred source of imported energy globally, according to respondents in 32 countries. About one-third of the more than 22,000 people surveyed believe their lives are better with oil and natural gas. The survey included major energy-producing nations such as the U.S., Great Britain, Russia, China, Venezuela, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as growing energy customers such as India and China. Although the majority would prefer to use energy made by their own country, 31 per cent preferred Canadian oil and natural gas imports versus those of other nations—making us the No. 1 choice on a list of 11 producing countries. Another 54 per cent were neutral or didn’t know enough about Canada’s energy story to say definitively. It is easy for Canadians to believe the naysayers who claim the world does not want Canadian energy, but it’s not true. In a world increasingly unsteady and uncertain, now more than ever, it

Sixty-eight per cent of Canadians surveyed agree Canadian oil and natural gas should meet our own country’s energy demands rather than imports from other nations—leaving the door open for the rest of the country to learn more about what Canada has to offer. wants more from Canada. Fortunately, industry is looking to the future. Through organizations such as Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA), companies are working together to create more energy for the world with less impact on the plant. Through COSIA, companies are collaborating on ways to capture, develop and share innovation to cut greenhouse gas emissions, improve reclamation and remediation of operations, reduce water use, and eliminate tailings ponds. They do all this under the watchful eye of both provincial and federal governments which boast some of the world’s most stringent regulatory policies. Since 2012, COSIA members have invested $1.33 billion to develop and create more than 930 distinct environmental technologies and innovations. For example, in suburban Toronto, Canadian Natural Resources Limited is working with innovators, Pond Technologies, on a pilot project to generate clean bio-fuel, create byproducts like fertilizer, and substantially cut carbon emissions. This algae technology has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 million tonnes from just two facilities—the equivalent of taking 300,000 cars off the road. At home, 68 per cent of Canadians surveyed agreed Canadian oil and natural gas should meet our own country’s energy demands rather than imports from other nations— leaving the door open for the rest of the country to learn more about

what Canada has to offer. Canada is blessed with some of the largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Our production in 2016 was nearly 3.9 million barrels per day of oil and 15.2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas – enough to meet the energy needs of all Canadians. Ironically, we still import energy. In 2016 we imported 609,000 barrels per day into Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Quebec from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Angola and Norway. We also imported 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from the U.S. U.S. growth since 2008 has seen additional production of

4.4 million barrels per day of oil and nearly 21 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to its own energy portfolio. At the same time, the U.S. is essentially our only customer for oil and natural gas exports importing nearly 99 per cent of our total oil exports and 100 per cent of our natural gas exports. Our largest energy customer has quickly become our largest energy competitor. We live in a world with increasing energy demands; a world that needs and wants more Canadian oil and natural gas. Canadians should be proud to know its industry is paving the way to a cleaner energy future. We are the energy of tomorrow for the world. Jeff Gaulin is the vice-president of communications for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. This article originally appeared in The Hill Times.

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SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

LAND SALES

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Alberta, B.C. drive land buying recovery For the eight month period in 2017, land buying in Canada has surged by over 200 per cent from the same point in 2016, driven by Alberta and British Columbia. In those two provinces, the East Shale Basin and Montney have been largely responsible for the reversal of fortunes. To the end of August, producers opened their wallets and plunked down $443.67 million in bonus bids, up from $141.6 million over the same eight-month stretch of 2016, which was a historically low period of land buying. Breaking down land spending further, $250.75 million was spent in Alberta year-todate to August, and $158.43 million in British Columbia. In B.C., the Montney has been the dominant zone, and a large $77-million parcel sold in the July land sale appears to be in an area favourable for oil, and there may be the potential for production from other zones besides the Montney. In Alberta’s final sale of August, the province attracted $17.46 million in bonus bids. Alberta attracted $23.88 million in bonus bids at its Sept. 13 land sale, with oilsands parcels accounting for over half the bonus bids. Industry picked up 46,952 hectares at an average price of $508.67. For full results, including locations, click here. This was the first notable oilsands bonus haul in more than a year. The June 22, 2016 sale included $11.17 million spent on oilsands parcels. Year-to-date for 2017, the province has attracted $274.63 million on 805,879 hectares at an average price of $340.79. To the same point in 2016, industry had paid $117.9 million to purchase 707,344 hectares at an average price of $166.68. Of note, a total of $12.3 million worth of oilsands parcels were sold, including one picked up by Stomp Energy Ltd. for $10.15 million in the Athabasca oilsands area. Back in B.C., the province earned $3.4 million at its August sale of petroleum and natural gas rights. Industry picked up $6,218 hectares at an average price of $550.20.

Windfall Resources spent the most on a single lease in the sale—$1.1 million for a 264-hectare parcel between Groundbirch and Altares. It picked another 264-hectare parcel in the same area for $652,080. The province will hold its next sale Sept. 20.

Manitoba on the rebound While its contribution is more modest when compared to western Canadian oil and gas titans in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan, activity across the board in Manitoba has rebounded strongly in 2017. Operators have so far licensed 116 wells to July of this year, just over double from 55 during the same period the previous year, although that’s still a decline from recent years. Rig releases and meterage have also climbed. The oil-prone province has reported 122 rig releases over the seven month period of 2017, up from 44 in 2016 and 121 in 2015. In term of metres drilled, 221,750 metres has been rig released compared to 83,917 in 2016 and 209,748 in 2015. The rig releases and meterage exclude experimental hole. Tundra Oil & Gas Limited has by far been the busiest operator, drilling 100,456 metres of hole, including test wells, to the end of July. Corex Resources Ltd. was next with 26,267 and Canadian Natural Resources Limited rounded the top three with 17,589. After its August land sale, the Manitoba government has collected $681,885 in bonus bids for 2017 year-to-date, a jump of over 200 per cent from the same point last year. Industry has purchased 3,242.02 hectares so far this year at an average of $210.33. To the same point of 2016, the oil-prone province had collected $209,212 on 1,605.62 hectares at an average price of $130.30. —Daily Oil Bulletin

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

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Peace River MLAs Dan Davies and Mike Bernier are settling into their new offices at the legislature in Victoria. They have the tough job of keeping the new NDP government to account, and the oil and gas sector front and centre of development plans in the north.

B.C. hikes carbon tax, forecasts $237M in natural gas revenues The BC NDP government issued its first budget update Sept. 11 after coming to power this summer, and expects higher natural gas revenue. The province is also hiking its carbon tax. The government forecasts natural gas royalties of $237 million for 2017-18, up from $152 million the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile Finance Minister Carole James said the government will follow through on its commitment to increase the carbon tax by $5 per tonne, starting April 1, 2018. “Supporting a sustainable economy also means recognizing our responsibility to address global climate change,” she said in her budget update speech. “Additional climate action measures will come over the next months as we work with our colleagues in the Green caucus and the Official Opposition.” The province is also ending the requirement for the carbon tax to be revenue neutral, “and we will use the carbon tax revenue to support families and fund green initiatives to address our climate action commitments.” James added: “Our plan is an important step to get B.C. back on track to meet our targets to cut carbon while investing the additional revenue in programs and services that help reduce emissions.” The province is forecasting a surplus for 2017/2018 of $246 million, with a forecast allowance of $300 million. The government will

also boost the general corporate income tax rate to 12 per cent from 11 per cent. Meanwhile, the B.C. Liberals pledged to “unlock the oil resources contained in the Montney” through a new oil, deep-well royalty credit during the election. Asked whether the new government would move forward with this proposal, a NDP government spokesperson said: “Royalty program updates—if and when they are available— will be announced via the provincial government’s newsroom. There are no updates at this time.” Gary Leach, president of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada, said: “We haven’t had an opportunity to meet yet with the minister but have had some conversations with government officials. We will be following up on the status of several policy initiatives as the government and legislature returns for a new session in early September.” Meanwhile, the British Columbia government has applied for intervener status in court challenges against the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. The NDP government announced earlier this month that it would be joining the legal fight against Ottawa’s approval of the $7.4-billion project and hired former judge Thomas Berger to provide legal advice.

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SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINES Pembina expansion nears completion ALEISHA HENDRY ahendry@ahnfsj.ca

Pembina Pipeline’s Northeast B.C. expansion project is getting closer to completion. Company officials paid Fort St. John city council a visit last week to update them on the pipeline’s progress. “We want to thank everyone for their patience, we’ve been at it since January and now it’s drawing to a close it’s a very busy time for us,” said project manager Brent MacIntyre. Work on the 147-kilometre pipeline began in January 2017 ALEISHA HENDRY PHOTO and is set to be complete and in Brent MacIntyre and Jason Fydirchuk gave Fort St. John city councillors an update on operation before the end of the Pembina Pipeline’s NEBC expansion project last week. year. Having the cleanup fully done will depend on the weather, MacIntyre said. Pembina is currently hydrotesting it’s safe and ready to transfer over to will carry natural gas liquids the line. operations,” said MacIntyre. and condensate from the area “It’s using water to just do a The pipeline has a base capacity northwest of Wonowon down to the strength test on the line to ensure of 75,000 barrels per day, and southeast of Taylor.

A portion of the pipeline goes through Fort St. John, specifically the ninth tee box on Links Golf Course. The pipeline also cuts through a large swath of agricultural land, which is being carefully monitored so there’s no damage to the topsoil, MacIntyre said. Crews moved the topsoil to one side during construction and will push it back when the work is done. “When we put it back, if we damage the soil or mix it improperly, it doesn’t grow properly anymore, and you can’t fix that.” Over the course of construction, Pembina and its contractors, including Surerus, have spent $30 million in the community and hired more than 400 local people to work on the project. “I’m particularly proud of that because we have actually gone to a lot of effort to look local first, not just for our labour, but also our subcontractors,” said MacIntyre.

Surerus, Macro JVs tapped for Trans Mountain work Two pipeline contractors in Fort St. John have been tapped to help build Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion. The Surerus Murphy Joint Venture and Macro Spiecapag Joint Venture are two of six contractors selected for the $7.4-billion project, it was announced earlier this month. “Getting the construction contractors on board represents a significant milestone for Trans Mountain and demonstrates our commitment to delivering the project in a timely, cost-effective manner,” Kinder Morgan Canada President Ian Anderson said in a statement. Kinder Morgan plans to start construction this month, which will increase Trans Mountain capacity to 890,000 bbls per day from 300,000 bbls a day between Edmonton and Burnaby. Surerus Murphy has been selected to build 185 kilometres of pipeline in the B.C. Interior between Black Pines and Merritt. Construction here also includes three pump stations. Macro Spiecapag has been selected to build 85 kilometres of pipeline in the CoquihallaHope area. Construction also includes upgrades to one pump station. Construction is expected to take place between September 2017 and August 2019, with the pipeline expected to be in operation at the end of 2019. The Surerus Murphy Joint Venture includes Fort St. John-based Surerus Pipeline, and J. Murphy & Sons Ltd., headquartered in London, UK. The joint venture, headquartered in Calgary, is currently building Pembina’s $235-million Northeast B.C. expansion project,

Surerus Murphy has been selected to build 185 kilometres of pipeline in the BC Interior between Black Pines and Merritt. Macro Spiecapag has been selected to build 85 kilometres of pipeline in the Coquihalla-Hope area.

as well as the north loop of Enbridge’s High Pine expansion in B.C. In Alberta, it is building the Fox Creek to Namao pipeline. Macro Industries began in Fort St. John in 1994. Spiecapag, headquartered in France, is part of the Entrepose Group, and has built pipelines across the world, including Angola, South Africa, Colombia, and Yemen. Other contractors named by Kinder Morgan include: • Spreads 1 & 2: Edmonton/Yellowhead — Midwest Pipelines Inc. • Spreads 3 & 4: North Thompson — Ledcor Sicim Limited Partnership • Spread 5A: BC Interior — Surerus Murphy

Joint Venture • Spread 5B: Coquihalla-Hope — Macro Spiecapag Joint Venture • Spread 6: Fraser Valley — Somerville-Aecon Energy Group • Lower Mainland — Kiewit Ledcor TMEP Partnership Kinder Morgan says it has selected or signed memorandums with the contractors in anticipation of executing final agreements. The contractors will be required to follow Trans Mountain’s “British Columbians first” policy for hiring to “maximize employment opportunities for Aboriginal, local and regional communities,” Kinder Morgan noted.

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

PIPELINES

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500 metric tonnes—that’s how much steel, wood and timber has been safely removed (and recycled) as part of Woodfibre LNG’s multi-phase cleanup of the Woodfibre site. The first phase of the cleanup began in late March 2017 and wrapped up just a few weeks ago.

Canadians’ feelings about the construction of new pipelines to deliver Canadian energy to new markets have shifted over the past three years, according to a new survey by Abacus Data. While negative feelings are unchanged at 21 per cent, positive feelings have dropped to 44 per cent from 58 per cent in 2014 while more people (36 per cent), up from 20 per cent three years ago, take a neutral stance, the survey found. “Worth noting is that the public debate, or at least the news coverage of it, may tend to leave the impression that most people have very strong views,” said the polling firm. “However, our results show that strong positive views tend to be more isolated to Albertans and Conservative voters, and strong negative views are less than 15 per cent even in B.C. and Quebec.” Discomfort with the idea of new pipelines is higher than average in British Columbia and Quebec (29 per cent in both provinces) while 67 per cent of Albertans have positive feelings, it found. Differences by generation and

partisanship are also noticeable when it comes to pipeline attitudes, said Abacus, with younger people less positive and more neutral compared to older people. Conservatives (69 per cent) are much more positively disposed towards new pipelines, compared to Liberals (45 per cent) and New Democrats (25 per cent). Anxiety about pipelines is a function of two types of concern: for 27 per cent it is a concern about the risk of spills, but for more people (37 per cent) it has to do with a desire to see a shift away from fossil fuels, said Abacus. In B.C. and Quebec, concerns about spills are higher than average, while among younger people, hesitation is more likely tied to a desire to see a shift away from fossil fuels, it noted. Those opposed to the Trans Mountain and Keystone XL pipeline projects tend to be much more likely to feel there is a high risk of spills (46 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively) while very few supporters feel the same way (13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively, Abacus found. —JWN Energy

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SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

INNOVATION

Thinking ‘inside the box’ on unconventional gas development CARTER HAYDU Daily Oil Bulletin

Encana Corporation is actually thinking inside the box with its innovative multi-well technique called ‘the cube,’ which maximizes efficiency, reduces cycle time and delivers lower drilling costs. “In a nutshell, it’s a development strategy,” Katie-Anne MacInnis,geological engineer, told the Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources (CSUR) British Columbia unconventional gas technical forum in Calgary last week. “It’s very large, multi-well pads, mainly drilled from multiple surfaces, where we are going in

with multiple rigs and multiple frac crews at a time.” Pioneered in the Permian, Encana is bringing this cube concept to its Montney operations where the company expects to improve horsepower utilization and lower capital costs. From “day one,” MacInnis noted, crews plan and implement the whole stack of parent and child wells for a given area to optimize space and minimize parent risk. “Below the ground we feel we are optimizing our resource recovery,” she said, adding more wells in a stack leaves less rock untouched and reduces frac communication while eliminating infill drilling.

“One really key thing is when you are going really tight in the stack, both vertically and horizontally, it is vital to have frac design that is controlled.” Having a higher concentration of activity in one area also means less required infrastructure and fewer pipelines, whether they be for takeaway or water. Not only does this save money, but it also minimizes overall footprint. The cube concept also reduces emissions as it affords higher intensity of services in one spot. “Another cool thing we are seeing from the cubes is this kind of healthy level of competition created between … frac crews,”

MacInnis said. “If one crew is getting 12 fracs per day and right across is another crew getting 11, then the next day they’ll [also] be hitting 12.” She added: “Overall, this cube strategy takes very detailed planning to achieve these efficiencies to ensure it is done safely.” Driven by cube development, as well as optimized completions, improved targeting and lower costs, Encana was able to outperform its average initial production 180-day type curves by between 20 to 45 per cent across its operations in Q2 2017.

Encana sees strong start to five-year plan

Solving demand crucial for BC producers CARTER HAYDU Daily Oil Bulletin

There really is no real constraint on the supply of natural gas for British Columbia, says Jihad Traya. The constraint for producers comes from the demand. “Supply is infinite, and demand is constrained,” the Solomon Associates manager of natural gas consulting told the Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources (CSUR) B.C. unconventional gas technical forum in Calgary. He said there is no “flaw” on the supply side as western Canadian producers could boost production by one bcf per day within a drilling season, and B.C. Montney represents some of the lowest-cost gas to produce. “The flaw is that everyone is good at what you [producers] do. The flaw is that what you think is secret is also known by somebody else, and they do it just as well as you do. What ends up happening, we end up producing more and more, we dump it in AECO because that is what we just do, and what happens to AECO prices is they crater.” One way to deal with this “flaw” is for producers to create their own demand, he said. For example, building a natural gas-fired power plant represents some of the cheapest demand to grow. Nonetheless, he suggested, developing any

new markets is necessarily going to be a costly endeavour, indicative of the fact it is a lot more complicated on the demand side than on the supply side. Regarding LNG export facilities, Traya said no project has yet to see construction in B.C. due to a combination of such things as regulatory structure, global competition, First Nations issues and a complex supply chain. However, he believes a set of circumstances have made Gulf Coast LNG more favourable. For example, there is already infrastructure in that area of the U.S., and pipelines already exist to terminals. “On the government side, I would say the B.C. government behaved like a rent-seeking agent,” he said, adding the province should not have demanded its “piece of the pie” on LNG projects before they started. “There is still hope. By our estimation by 2025 we are going to be in a very constrained world in which demand for LNG will grow. Where does Canadian natural gas fit into that? Well there is a place for it, and that place is really up to the producers.” Traya noted that optimizing Canadian natural gas in the future depends on sophistication and co-operation, and many producers will have to rethink their role in marketing. “Those firms with transportation or an egress strategy, who have taken out positions on pipelines, are most likely to be the ones to remain standing.”

Encana Corporation is making strong progress in the first year of its five-year plan the company rolled out last fall, says the company’s top executive. Doug Suttles, president and CEO, told a Barclays investor conference that a strong first half of 2017 has seen the company eclipse previously planned targets. “When we came into the year we said we had three core objectives to deliver this year. First, we intended to go from decline to growth by mid-year—what we referred to as the ‘production bounce.’ We achieved that, actually, in April,” he said. “Second, we said production from our core assets would grow at least 20 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017 and in July we updated that to say that we’ll grow somewhere between 25 and 30 per cent,” Suttles added. “And lastly, we said we needed to find new efficiencies to offset inflation—to hang onto the efficiency gains that we achieved in 2015 and 2016. As we showed in our second quarter results, we have effectively offset inflation with efficiency gains across our business.” Suttles said Encana’s production efficiency is now expected to be about 10 per cent better than the company’s original guidance. Suttles said the company will ramp-up activity levels in the Montney as it looks optimize the new plants. Suttles said Encana remains focused on improving its percentage of liquids in the overall corporate production mix. Meanwhile, Suttles said the company’s assets in south Texas were relatively unscathed by Hurricane Harvey. —Daily Oil Bulletin

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

INNOVATION

CARTER HAYDU PHOTO

U of C professor Ian Gates and researcher Jacky Wang display bitumen pebbles.

Bitumen balls may pave new path to markets CARTER HAYDU JWN Energy

Assuming it works as researchers at the University of Calgary have demonstrated in the laboratory, Ian Gates’ self-sealing bitumen balls represent a potential breakthrough for Alberta’s energy sector as it struggles to get product to market and compete for investment dollars. “This started in our lab as basically an accident that grew into a meaningful thing,” said the Schulich School of Engineering professor. “We now have several companies we are talking to about moving this forward.” By November, Gates said the patented and fully-automated technology will produce “pebbles of bitumen” in large quantities, hopefully providing a pipeline-free solution for Alberta crude to reach markets in a cheap and sustainable manner. “In terms of the manufacturing of the pellets, we are now at a point where the technology from a fundamental point of view and what

we do at the university is mature and where, reproducibly, when we do our process, we produce day in and day out a pellet-like product,” he said. “We are going to build a onebarrel-per-day unit, going from our super-small scale to that. That will resolve a lot of the scale-up issues we are probably going to face... By one year the goal is a severalhundred-barrel-per-day unit to produce this.” Researchers developed the process to make pellets of varying sizes at the wellhead, using roughly the same energy as it takes to dilute bitumen for liquid transport. While this is not the first attempt to create a solid form of bitumen, Gates said his technology means pellets can be rapidly produced without polymers or other additives, and without the need for complex equipment like microwaves. “The wonderful thing about bitumen and heavy oil is you can polymerize it. You can cause asphaltenes to polymerize it. It is the feedstock for doing exactly that, being hydrocarbon based. In doing so, we can essentially

produce the skin or the coating with no polymers.” He added: “We would like to supply a product that together with the light end and the solid is exactly what you had originally. That is what we want to provide.” Although he would not divulge many details as to the process itself, Gates said that a lot of the equipment used for the process is based on kitchenware reengineered and redesigned from an industrial perspective. The process makes two products, including the solid material that can be transported easily in a standard railcar, as well as a 40 degree API oil that makes for good feedstock for lubricants or even as a solvent for bitumen. “We can’t tell you everything, but what we will say is that essentially the process does not require any additives in serious quantity, and so it doesn’t rely on polymers or huge amounts of solvent. It basically uses heat, which causes it to create a coating on the pellets. This is then the seal that holds the bitumen or heavy oil within. We build them deliberately rough, which helps

keep them from sticking to each other.” Each unit is designed for mobility and minimal physical footprint. As an example, Gates envisions small producers using the technology to essentially produce both a solid and light oil product, one of which could be trucked away in a typical tank, while the other could be moved on a standard open truck with a cover — a useful option for producers lacking easy, plentiful transport options for their bitumen or heavy crude. “If the product you desire is dilbit, then this is not for you. If you want to use pipeline, then you would not put this into a pipeline. If you have your established supply chain, then you wouldn’t use this. “However, for those small heavy oil producers who don’t have a pipeline near their plant and they want easy transport, they could see these units sitting on the wellhead, basically producing solid product they would then essentially put into a truck or railcar and safety transported anywhere on the planet.”

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SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

LNG

Nexen nixes Aurora LNG Nexen Energy says it has made the strategic decision to cancel feasibility studies into its plan for a liquefied natural gas plant in Prince Rupert. The company announced it was stopping its investigation activities on Aurora LNG effective immediately. “Over the past four years, Aurora LNG has been conducting a thorough feasibility study on liquefying and shipping LNG from the northwest coast of British Columbia to Asian markets,” the company said in an announcement. “Through this feasibility study, Aurora LNG has determined that

the current macro-economic environment does not currently support the partners’ vision of developing a large LNG business at the proposed Digby Island site.” Nexen is the former Alberta oil and gas company that was acquired in 2013 by CNOOC Ltd., a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corp., for $15 billion. The LNG project was a joint venture between Nexen and Japan’s INPEX Corp. The project, estimated between $17 billion to $20 billion not including associated pipeline infrastructure, was planned to ship 24 million tonnes of LNG

per year. Its environmental review had resumed in June after being halted in the spring so Nexen could respond to some 1,168 submissions on the project sent to the B.C. Environmental Assessment Office. Nexen had previously estimated its joint venture lands in Horn River and Cordova basins near Fort Nelson held between four trillion and 15 trillion cubic feet of recoverable contingent resources, and that the Liard joint venture lands contained an estimated five to 23 trillion cubic feet of prospective resources. The company said its upstream operations in the Horn River basin will continue as it winds down operations in the Prince Rupert area.

“While disappointed in this outcome, Aurora LNG is proud of its work in northwest British Columbia over the past three years and the relationships it has built with local community members, Indigenous groups, stakeholders and government,” the company said. “Upstream operations from the partners’ Horn River natural gas assets in northeast British Columbia will continue, and the partners will also monitor the North American gas market to evaluate future upstream and downstream investments according to market conditions.” —with files from Business in Vancouver

Real LNG players still standing, analyst says NELSON BENNETT Business in Vancouver

First Petronas and now Nexen. That is two large multi-billion dollar LNG projects cancelled just since the new NDP government took office. At the end of July, Malaysia’s Petronas announced it was cancelling its $36 billion Pacific NorthWest LNG project in Prince Rupert. In both cases, Nexen and Petronas blamed markets and economics for their decisions, although some NDP critics blame the new government, saying the NDP sent negative signals to the industry by officially opposing the Petronas project and vowing to increase regulatory burden on the natural gas and LNG industry. “I think the general public’s got to know that, for these companies that want to invest billions into B.C., they’ve got to have complete confidence that they’re welcome in B.C.,” said Ellis Ross, Liberal MLA for Skeena and oil and gas critic. “Most importantly, that goes for government support, but I don’t think the LNG industry’s got support here in B.C.” In an email to Business in Vancouver, Nexen said, “government policy was not a determining factor in our decision. Our decision was market based and driven by capital discpiline.” Tempting though that may be to blame the new NDP government, Dirk Lever, head of institutional equity research at AltaCorp Capital Inc., doesn’t buy the political

argument. “I would never in my lifetime ever vote NDP, but I am also pragmatic enough to know that people aren’t cancelling projects because of them,” Lever said. What is happening in B.C. is a “weeding out” of the marginal players and projects, he said. “Figure out who’s left. I see everything whittling down to who are the real players in this.” Those players are Shell (LNG Canada), Chevron-Woodside (Kitimat LNG) and Imperial-Exxon (West Coast Canada LNG). In the heady heyday of the LNG rush, there were more than 20 LNG projects being pitched in B.C. Most

have fallen by the wayside. “You are down to the biggest players,” Lever said. “That makes sense to me. All those players have big resources. They could actually develop long-term projects with the long-term resources they have.” For a major LNG project to go forward, regardless of who is in power at the time, companies need both strong natural gas assets and deep pockets. Nexen has the financial wherewithal in its parent company, CNOOC, but not the geological resources, Lever said. “If you don’t have the resource and you’ve got an idea to make a facility, you’re got nothing,” Lever said. “You need the resource.”

Nexen does have upstream natural gas assets in B.C., Lever said, but they are in the Liard Basin, not the lower-cost Montney. Development and production in the Liard basin is “really expensive” Lever said because it does not have the natural gas liquids that make the Montney so productive. Petronas does have significant upstream assets resources in the Montney, but Lever said, the company “bit off more than they can chew.” “They had the natural gas resource. I don’t think they had the capital resources to build a project.” With a current glut of LNG on the world market, and increasing competition from the U.S., which is suddenly a real player in the LNG space, the economics are not right for a major LNG project in Canada. But eventually they will be, analysts say, once increasing demand for LNG in Asia and elsewhere begin to balance out an over supply – predicted by many analysts to be around 2025. “Do I think Canada is out of the LNG game?” Lever said. “At the moment we are. But we can come back on because … we are whittled down to three real players. Could those three real players whittle down to one project? Absolutely they could. “Petronas could step away, but they can step back in later because there’s three other players there. You can always join in with the other guys. You’ve got real world-class players at the table.”

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

LNG

Business brisk in NEBC, but international confidence may be shaken An ominous cloud may have been cast over the multi-billiondollar LNG industry in northeast B.C., but local residents say the resource horizon remains bright. After the August announcement that Malaysia-based Petronas would be pulling the plug on its $36 billion Pacific NorthWest LNG project, many locals are echoing the same sentiment: the project had been overhyped and, on the ground, things are busier than ever. “In the north, where the gas is being drilled and produced and primary processing is taking place, we are seeing an upsurge in activity related to pipeline expansion…There is a lot of work going on,” said Bob Fedderly, northeast businessman and owner of Fedderly Transportation Ltd. “A lot of people that are working in the industry hadn’t bet their last dollar on [the project] going ahead because it wasn’t a sure thing.” Petronas will continue to

develop holdings in the Montney region and will work with B.C.’s new NDP government to continue to foster its natural gas assets in northeast B.C. The assets were gained in 2013 when Petronas acquired Alberta’s Progress Energy Resources for $5 billion. Petronas currently has the second-largest position in B.C.’s Montney formation. The company estimates its potential natural gas reserves nearing 52 trillion cubic feet. Mitch Collins, investment realtor in the northeast, admits that although the real estate market is slow in Fort St. John, it is the product of a prevailing trend and should not be reflective of what is happening with the LNG industry. “From a sales standpoint the market has been slow in Fort St. John for the last couple years,” said Collins. “Right now there are more listings on the market than we’ve historically ever had, so we are pretty much at an all-time high for listings.” He is quick to point out that,

while sales remain low, activity in the area continues to be high. “The oil and gas market is having a lot of work happening with pipelines and drilling. Gas plants are being built. There are some capital upgrades going on between pulp mills just outside of Fort St. John,” he said. Nevertheless, the confusion brought about by industry trends and political volatility has inspired skepticism in the market, according to Collins. “From a sales side people are opting to rent at the moment until some of the political uncertainty has dissipated. Nobody really expected an NDP-Green coalition to take power, and now that it has, the threat of them shutting down Site C is weighing on everyone’s mind.” The Site C dam project is currently under review and has spurred criticism because of estimated project costs going far over budget. In Dawson Creek, the sentiments of high activity levels are the same. “Dawson Creek is sitting on a

less than 1% [residential] vacancy right now. There is no place to stay in Dawson Creek,” Collins explained. “Our community is very busy,” said Dale Bumstead, mayor of Dawson Creek. “There are lots of projects going on like infrastructure builds for processing plants and pipeline. There is a huge amount of construction feeding the natural gas [sector].” As for other projects in the area, Bumstead cites the Towerbirch expansion project as just one example of ongoing employment that shows the continued interests of various big-name players in the oil and gas industry. “[The pipeline] being built by TransCanada has an additional three processing plants that are under construction worth $2.5 billion in capital infrastructure costs. They will be built and online early 2018.” Bumstead said that companies like Arc Resources Ltd., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Crew Energy Inc. and Encana Corp. have all ramped up production.

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• PIPELINE NEWS NORTH

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

POLICY

NEB to consider upstream, downstream GHGs for first time in Energy East review DEBORAH JAREMKO JWN Energy

The National Energy Board will for the first time consider the related upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions in its review of two proposed pipeline projects. In August, the NEB announced the topics that will be part of its assessment of whether TransCanada’s proposed Energy East Pipeline project and its smaller Eastern Mainline project are in the public interest. “The NEB also wants to examine the potential market impacts of GHGs reduction targets embedded in laws or policies on the economic viability of the projects,” the NEB said in a statement. The NEB is following through on a proposal it made in May 2017 to consider GHGs in these project reviews. Upstream GHGs include all industrial activities from the point of resource extraction to the project under review, while downstream GHGs include all activities from the point of the product leaving the project to the final end-use. The $15.7-billion Energy East project is proposed to transport crude from Western Canada to refineries in Eastern Canada and an export terminal in New Brunswick. A new hearing panel was assigned to review its regulatory application in January after the previous panel stepped down in September 2016 in order to “preserve the integrity” of the NEB process following accusations of bias toward project approval. All decisions made by the previous hearing panel were voided, and the process has restarted from the beginning. The NEB said topics in the project reviews will also “provide more visibility” to the evaluation of spill risk scenarios, as well as preventative programs aimed at reducing risk, as well as Indigenous participation in the projects throughout their life cycles, landowner and municipal considerations, cumulative environmental effects and socioeconomic elements.

JOEY PODLUBNY PHOTO

TransCanada requests one-month suspension of Energy East review R.P. STASTNY JWN Energy

TransCanada has asked the National Energy Board (NEB) for a 30-day suspension of the Energy East pipeline review to study the implications of the regulator’s decision to include consideration of upstream and downstream GHGs, and other factors. The NEB announced the groundbreaking change to its process in late August. It also applies to the smaller Eastern Mainline project review. In a statement, TransCanada said it needs time to assess how the changes will impact the cost, schedule and viability of the two pipelines,

however, observers suggest that the request could signal the death knell for Energy East. Energy East, which proposes to ship up to 1.1 million bbls/d of oil from Alberta to the Atlantic Coast — with much of the crude bound for export markets — has drawn entrenched criticism from environmentalists and some municipalities along the cross-Canada route. “Should TransCanada decide not to proceed with the projects after a thorough review of the impact of the NEB’s amendments, the carrying value of its investment in the projects as well as its ability to recover development costs incurred to date would be negatively impacted,” the company said.

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

OUTLOOK Q&A: World on the verge of major power shift HAYLEY WOODIN Business in Vancouver

As chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Laszlo Varro develops and provides the energy economics insights that inform the agency’s extensive policy and security analyses. In 2017, he is looking at the impact of low prices on oil demand, China’s burgeoning middle class and its financial ability to travel, and the development of more efficient internal combustion engines as reference points for what the future of energy consumption looks like. On his first trip to Vancouver, he spoke with Business in Vancouver reporter Hayley Woodinabout global energy market trends, and Laszlo Varro, chief economist of the International Energy Agency. where they’ll take Canada. Q: Where does the global energy market find itself today? A: The energy system is at the beginning of a deep transformation, but we are not yet there. So we now have had more than two years of stagnating carbon dioxide emissions globally, despite healthy GDP growth. Especially in the electricity system, we are now deploying enough wind and enough solar power globally to satisfy broadly half of electricity demand growth, and that’s the biggest component of electricity by far. But at the same time, low energy prices had a very significant, positive stabilizing impact on oil demand. So last year global oil demand increased by 1.5 million barrels a day, and new electric cars capped oil demand growth only by 10,000. So in the transportation sector, the transformation is still in a very, very early stage, and for industrial energy use – broad, heavy industry – it is also in a very, very early stage. Looking out 10, 20, 50 years – once this transformation is starting to wind down what does it look like? Are we not using fossil fuels any more, or is it more of a balance and more of a shift toward, say, electric vehicles? This very much depends on government policies. The energy system is heavily influenced by government policies as they are implemented in many countries. And the policies that are currently being implemented

by governments, they very significantly slow down the growth of the use of fossil fuels, but they don’t completely stop it. Specifically for vehicles, we think that even under the policies that are already implemented, the oil consumption associated with personal passenger cars will decline in the next 25 years. Now this is a very high bar because we also think that the total number of cars globally will grow from the current 800 million to two billion, but the two billion cars will consume less oil than the 800 million today, because of the very rapid spread of electric cars and radical improvements in engine efficiency. However we also think that in other sectors like aviation, heavy-duty trucking and longdistance shipping, there is still a very, very robust oil demand growth yet to come. Under the policies that are currently implemented by governments, we are not yet moving toward a generally lowcarbon economy. Certainly if you want to tackle climate change, then by around 2060, so mid-century, the energy system will have to be completely carbon-neutral.

SUBMITTED PHOTO

a remarkable shift in China, which is very much driven by concerns over air pollution and concerns about climate change. If you take the four big low-carbon energy sources – hydro power, nuclear power, wind power and solar power – China is the largest investor in all four of them by a very, very broad margin.

Where does all of this leave Canada and its position in the global energy market? One face of Canada is a country which is a significant energy user in itself. Canada has very high per capita energy consumption in international comparison. But also it’s a country which has a proactive, progressive climate policy, and it plays an important role in international energy diplomacy. With the hydro-power potential, Canada is already as of today one of the biggest producers of renewable energy in the world. This is the domestic angle of Canada. The international angle of Canada is our country, which is abundant in oil and gas resources, it’s already a significant exporter and it has future significant potential as well. Given that the carbon intensity of Q: Overall, how big of an impact electricity production in Canada do you see China having when it is already quite favourable in comes to influencing demand, international comparison, in price and consumption? Canada, increasingly the attention It’s an absolutely huge impact, would have to switch toward because China is the biggest the emissions coming from the energy investor globally, and the transportation sector and from biggest source of carbon dioxide building heating. emissions globally as well. There is

What about Canada’s capability of being a leader in liquefied natural gas? There have been two big LNG investment bases unfolding in the past five years. One is Australia; the other is the Gulf Coast of the United States. Now the Australian projects are large projects, in remote locations with some difficult project management experiences, whereas the American projects are brownfield locations using already existing infrastructure and they prove to be very, very competitive. Now these two big investment bases have created excess supply of LNG in international markets, so LNG prices have declined by half in the past two or three years, a number of projects are struggling to generate an acceptable return for their shareholders, and, unsurprisingly, the potential big investors are taking a bit of time to assess the market situation and think very hard about which projects will be competitive and which projects [won’t]. So we foresee a significant decline of global LNG investment. LNG projects have a long lead time from a regulatory and licensing point of view, but we also think that the decline of the European gas production and the increasing role of gas in the energy system of China – where gas is replacing coal in building heating and industrial energy use, contributing to emission reductions – the combination of the two will create a bright future for LNG. So we think that the current investment decline is only temporary, and there will be another wave of energy investment coming in the 2020s. Now Canada is certainly one of the strong potential candidates for this, but Canada is also facing competition because there are very large potential gas resources and very interesting project opportunities in Africa. Russia is also working very hard to become an LNG player. Russia is of course already a very large exporter in pipelines, but they are also working very hard for the LNG business. So our modelling and our analysis suggests that Canada will eventually emerge as a significant energy exporter, but it’s not going to be a very fast journey, and this will require some very careful project management by the Canadian players.

• PIPELINE NEWS NORTH

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

IN BRIEF

Pipeline expansions to keep Canada’s natural gas ‘in the mix’ reaching some record level lows,” Ouwerkerk said. “A lot of this has to do with some maintenance events that have gone on that have laid bare some of this decreased optionality out of the market, as well as stronger production.” On August 29, West Coast Station 2 dropped to its lowest level since the 1990s, to 10.5 cents per thousand cubic feet, he said, resulting in the commodity’s September contract decreasing to 56 cents per thousand cubic feet, which is the lowest on Platts’ records. “It’s going to require expansions to get this gas into the market to avoid situations like West Coast Station 2 completely falling to record levels,” he said. Within the production zone in BC and Alberta, Ouwerkerk said expansions of Enbridge’s High Pine and TransCanada’s Tower Birch pipelines – both currently under construction – will add over one billion cubic feet per day of transportation “deeper into the Alberta market.” Meanwhile, expansions to the NGTL system will boost capacity by 700 million cubic feet per day, freeing up constraints in the upstream

Expansions of North American natural gas pipelines will keep Western Canada’s growing production from cratering regional markets in the next few years without LNG, says a pricing specialist with S&P Global Platts. Higher rig counts in British Columbia and Alberta are expected to increase Western Canada’s natural gas production by 19 percent by 2020, from just under 16 billion cubic feet per day currently to between 18.5 billion and 19 billion cubic feet per day. At the same, LNG off take capacity is not expected, but Ryan Ouwerkerk says pipeline projects will keep Canada’s molecules moving to market. “These expansions are what is going to keep Canada in the mix within the production provinces but also into the US market,” Ouwerkerk told an energy information session in Calgary. Producers in BC this year have already felt the impact that limited sales options can have, evidenced by recent pricing for West Coast Station 2, the regional marker for the province’s northeast. “Prices have actually been crushed this year,

region, he said. Into the US, he said the proposed Sundre Crossover expansion of the NGTL system would boost capacity by 360 million cubic feet per day to the Pacific Northwest in 2018, the Alliance Pipeline is planning to increase takeaway capacity into the US market by 500 million cubic feet per day by 2020, and the Portland Natural Gas Transmission System is looking at doubling its capacity into the US northeast. Ouwerkerk added that expansions to pipeline networks further into the US can benefit Canadian producers as well. He highlighted Kinder Morgan’s proposed NGPL Gulf Coast Expansion Project, which would have a direct connection with the key Alliance and Northern Border pipelines. “US expansions can allow Canadian producers to piggyback down to US export markets,” he said, noting that the country’s sole current LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy, already has an agreement to source gas from the Montney play and is considering other deals. —JWN Energy

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• Distributed to the community in general through these ﬁne publications, Alaska Highway News, Dawson Creek Daily and Fort Nelson News. • Distribution by mail and direct drop-off to Oil & Gas companies,and related businesses and organizations, in the following communities: BRITISH COLUMBIA – Arras, Baldonnel, Cecil Lake, Charlie Lake, CHETWYND, Clayhurst, DAWSON CREEK, Farmington, FORT NELSON, FORT ST. JOHN, Goodlow, Groundbirch, HUDSON HOPE, Moberley Lake, Pink Mountain, Pouce Coupe, Progress, Rolla, Rose Prairie, Sunset Prairie, Taylor, Tomslake, TUMBLER RIDGE, and Wonowon. ALBERTA – Baytree, Bear Canyon, BEAVERLODGE, Berwyn, Bezanson, Bonanza, CLAIRMONT, Eaglesham, FAIRVIEW, Falher, Girouxville, GRANDE PRAIRIE, Grimshaw, Grovedale, HIGH PRAIRIE, Hines Creek, Hythe, LaGlace, MANNING, McLennan, PEACE RIVER, Rycroft, SEXSMITH, Silver Valley, Spirit River, VALLEYVIEW, Wembley, and Worsley, Zama City.

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PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •

COMMUNITY

Cobbler stepping up to help put an end to polio Local Entrepreneur and Rotarian of the year Frank Ripley is helping the world march towards a future free of polio. Ripley has joined Rotary past district Governor Tim Schilds to help children with Polio through their immunization program. Ripley—inventor of the wildly popular Rip’s Ice Cleats—is donating a portion of the profits from each pair of cleats sold to support the End Polio Now Program. The money raised goes towards immunizing children from Polio. While polio cases have been reduced by over 99 percent since 1988, the disease has not been eradicated. Polio is a virus, typically spread through contaminated water, which affects the nervous system and can leave its victims paralyzed. Ripley developed his cleats after a fall many years ago. Through product testing, innovation

and a solid business plan, the Rip’s Cleats sales took off and are now sold Canada wide with over 300+ dealers. The Cleats have expanded into the US and come in a variety of models for everyone from industrial users to seniors who wish to prevent fall injuries on ice and snow. “I have always been a big believer in Rotary and supported their many programs and charitable work,” says Ripley. “With the success of my Ice & Snow Cleat business, I felt it was time to move things up a notch. With my association and the support of local Past Rotary District Governor, Tim Schilds, we developed a program to donate a portion of each sale of our cleats to the End Polio Now program. “I am proud and honored to help Tim and his team at Rotary International. It’s a win/win for all involved. ”

In 2016, the local Rotary Club awarded Frank “Rotarian of the Year” for his hard work and dedication to Rotary and its many programs. As a supporter of Rotary, the next step for Frank was to support the End Polio Now program. “As a fellow Rotarian, it was exciting to see Frank come onboard and show the leadership in both his business and community and support Rotary as he has,” says Schilds. With the funds donated from the sale of Frank’s Ice Cleats, we hope to see many hundreds of children receive the polio immunizations they need to prevent this crippling disease” said Schilds. Both Ripley and Schilds hope to see other local businesses get involved in Rotary’s efforts to end polio around the globe. Rip’s Cleats is only one small business in the north that has decided that they want to share the success of their business with those in need.

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COMMUNITY

ALEISHA HENDRY PHOTOS

Progress Energy had the fastest time in the Heavy Weight category at the annual United Way Fire Truck Pull this month. The team took top spot with a time of with 12.40 seconds. Shell Canada placed second in the Not So Heavy Weight category with a time of 18.31 seconds.