FEBRUARY 21, 2020
PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •
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Spread 1 pipeline construction in Edmonton, Alberta, December 2019. | Trans Mountain Photo
TMX expansion to cost more than $12 billion NELSON BENNETT Twinning the Trans Mountain pipeline, which Canadians now own, will cost $5 billion more than the last capital cost estimate, Trans Mountain president Ian Anderson confirmed Feb. 7. The expansion, last pegged in 2017 at $7.4 billion, will actually cost $12.6 billion. That is $3.3 billion more than what the Parliamentary Budget Office estimated a one-year delay would push the final costs to. In 2018, the Trudeau government salvaged the project when it agreed to buy it from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion. That price included the price for the existing pipeline, plus the $1 billion already spent or committed before the Federal Appeal Court of Canada halted the project. When the Trudeau government bought the project, twinning it to nearly triple its capacity was estimated to cost $7.4 billion. Last year, the Parliamentary Budget Office estimated a year’s delay could push that price of the expansion to $9.3 billion. When Kinder Morgan signaled it might scrap the project, the Alberta government under former NDP premier Rachel Notley said it would pony up to $2 billion, should the project face cost overruns.
Whether the Jason Kenney government will honour that commitment for a backstop remains to be seen. He may balk at the idea that British Columbia will get $1 billion in revenue sharing from Trans Mountain. That’s the commitment the Christy Clark government finagled out of Trans Mountain in exchange for her government’s support of the project. It was assumed that commitment was off the table after the John Horgan NDP government did 180-degree turn and announced it would use every tool in its toolbox to halt the expansion. But Anderson revealed for the first time today that B.C. will still get that $1 billion in revenue sharing. “We have an unprecedented agreement with British Columbia, where we’ll be contributing up to $1 billion to British Columbians so that every corner of the province can have access to funds for environmental initiatives and share in the benefits of the project,” Anderson said. That might not sit well with Alberta, given it was the Horgan government that was largely to blame for the federal government having to rescue the project by buying it. When it announced it could no longer see the project
through, Kinder Morgan cited difficulties between governments – i.e.e the federal and B.C. government – as one of the reasons for backing away. Anderson said the increased capital costs are the result of the starting and stopping the project, additional carrying costs, changed market conditions (the price of steel and labour for example), and increased scope and design changes. Also, the project now has more benefits agreements with First Nations than it did in 2017, at the time of the last capital cost estimate. It has gone from 43 to 58 agreements, worth close to $500 million. The project’s expansion was halted for a year, when the Federal Court of Appeal quashed the order in council that approved the project, and the federal government was sent back to the drawing board to address shortcomings in the approval process, including First Nation consultations. “Time is money, as we all know,” Anderson said. “Market conditions have changed. Circumstances have changed.” As for design and scope changes, Anderson said the company will use thicker steel pipe than originally proposed, and will install “state-of-
the-art” leak detection technology. “We made the decision that we were going to install what’s called hi-fi technology from Edmonton to Burnaby in the areas that we’re constructing,” Anderson said.” We didn’t have to do that.” That new technology adds $70 million to the cost of the project. Anderson said increased use of unionized labour has also added to costs. “Union labour will do 50% of the work undertaking in Burnaby and Westridge and a third of the work along the pipeline corridor,” Anderson said. “That wasn’t the case in 2016, 2017. We made a conscious decision to ensure that we have labour harmony and labour balance across this project.” All along, the government’s plan was to complete the expansion project and then sell it. A number of First Nations groups have said they want equity in the pipeline. But the increased capital cost means a return on investment will take longer, which could cause potential buyers to balk at the new price tag. Potential buyers include a number of First Nations groups. The increased capital costs also means shippers will have to pay higher tolls. — Business in Vancouver
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How do Alberta and B.C. work together on LNG? NELSON BENNETT While the governments of Alberta and British Columbia have been butting heads over the Trans Mountain expansion, both jurisdictions have viewed natural gas and LNG favourably. The question for both provinces is how they work co-operatively on LNG given the strained relationship on the TMX side. “It’s tough because there’s no moral equivalence,” Dale Nally, Alberta’s associate minister of natural gas, said in an interview with the Daily Oil Bulletin. “We absolutely have to get our natural gas to market; we have to work collaboratively with B.C. on LNG because we have some vested interests.” He added: “But let’s be clear: We have a pipeline to build on the oil side as well, and so we have to do both. We need to get the TMX built, absolutely; [we] need to get oil flowing through there in addition to working with them on getting some pipelines and supporting some LNG facilities.” A report commissioned by Alberta’s previous government titled Roadmap to Recovery: Reviving Alberta’s Natural Gas Industry included a host of recommendations to revive the province’s ailing natural gas industry. It suggested to “grow the pie” — in other words, improving market access for Alberta’s natural gas producers. One of the options is LNG exports. The global opportunity is “complex,” the report stated, but it is the one big prize for Western Canada’s natural gas sector. “Our LNG development projects must be globally competitive, visionary, sophisticated, and large in scale. LNG Canada’s decision to proceed is great news, but we need to move quickly and assertively to bring subsequent phases and projects forward. The time to act is now,” the report said. Is there a role for the Alberta government to play in helping to get the province’s gas to markets overseas? “I don’t see it in providing grants and economic incentives; that’s not what we do,” Nally said. “Our job is to provide a regulatory environment that is a businessfriendly environment, that’s going to attract business.” Provinces need ‘to be united’ on LNG development
LNG Canada site. | Fluor Photo
While Alberta and British Columbia may still be nursing wounds over the fight they had on TMX, B.C. Premier John Horgan recently conceded that his government’s legal fight over the expansion “has run its course.” A Supreme Court ruling earlier in January shut down B.C.’s attempt to regulate what can flow through an expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. The B.C. government wanted to require provincial permits before heavy oil could be shipped to the province through pipelines from Alberta. The Supreme Court decision upheld a B.C. Court of Appeal ruling that said such permits would violate Ottawa’s authority under the Constitution to approve and regulate pipelines that cross provincial boundaries. Producers are now hoping to see some co-operation between Alberta and B.C. on a western Canadian natural gas and LNG industry. “The one message that I’ve heard consistently from investors is that we need to be united,” Nally said recently in an interview with Business in Vancouver (BIV). “We need to be united provincially with all the provinces, and we need to be united federally.” Even if B.C. and Alberta cooperate on the LNG front, however, there is some uncertainty about whether the political will exists at the federal level. Many industry members say the Trudeau government has
been adding, not subtracting, to regulatory processes that are already considered too slow and cumbersome, especially when it comes to building pipelines. At least one new pipeline to the West Coast will be needed, if another major LNG plant ever gets a final investment decision. “Whether it’s LRTs in urban environments, or hydro plants, or wind and solar, or natural gas or oil, these [processes] have gotten too long,” said Rick Anderson, principal for Earnscliffe Strategy Group. “The problem is definitely more severe, and has gotten worse, at the federal level.” Compared to the U.S., where LNG development continues apace, “we are really mired in a regulatory quicksand,” added Dan Allan, president of the Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources. There are real fears that Canada has already lost the race to become a major LNG producer to the U.S., and that LNG Canada may end up being the only major LNG project built in Western Canada. “Absent a dedicated joint Alberta/B.C./Canada acceleration effort for additional B.C. projects, our reliance on LNG for Alberta’s gas future will be constrained and could be dominated by a single project,” the Alberta special advisory panel warned. On this score, strong government support for environmentally responsible natural gas
development is essential at a time when opposition to all forms of hydrocarbon energy “is blocking our access to both continental and global natural gas markets,” the Roadmap report noted. On this score, “the Alberta government can play an important leadership role in bringing producers, pipeline companies, other provinces and the federal government to the table, to identify and implement long-term strategies for the development and marketing of our immense natural gas resources,” the report stated. Canada, Western Canada, and Alberta would benefit from a united, cohesive, and actionable vision for natural gas. The enormous natural gas resource base of Alberta and B.C. offers great economic opportunity, according to the report, but that opportunity will not be realized unless industry and governments develop a shared vision for natural gas resource development. A strategic vision for Western Canada’s natural gas industry must include clear strategies to access both continental and global markets. “Our American competitors are doing it, why aren’t we?” With the American market shrinking, Alberta’s natural gas producers are increasingly looking to Asia and the liquefied natural gas industry for new markets. CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE
FEBRUARY 21, 2020
PIPELINE NEWS NORTH •
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Bruce Ralston appointed B.C. energy minister Premier John Horgan has shuffled Michelle Mungall out of the provincial energy portfolio, and has appointed in her place the MLA at the centre of a $5 million defamation lawsuit brought by the province’s former LNG advocate. Mungall has been appointed Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Competitiveness, with Bruce Ralston the new Minister of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources. Ralston made headlines when the NDP took power in 2017 and he summarily fired former BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson from his post as the province’s international LNG advocate. Ralston, then the jobs minister, had claimed his government could find no written reports by Wilson during a review of his role and fouryear tenure. However, 180 pages of publicly available documents and reports were quickly found by the Province newspaper that shed light on Wilson’s time in the position, including a work plan, meeting summaries, research findings, and project updates. The information was made public in 2015 following a freedom of information request by the NDP. Ralston and Horgan were forced to retract and apologize for the comments. But that didn’t stop Wilson from launching a $5 million defamation lawsuit against them and others. The trial begins this April in B.C. Supreme Court, according to Victoria News. The claims have yet to be tested in court, and the defendants have applied to the court to strike some of Wilson’s claims for damages. FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Nine mid-sized producers with operations in Alberta and B.C. recently formed a coalition called Rockies LNG Partners, with the goal of developing a new market for their gas in Asia, via the West Coast. The group expects to identify a potential project site in the first quarter of 2020, Rockies LNG chief executive officer Greg Kist said in an interview with Bloomberg late last year. Rockies is maintaining an earlier target of bringing its facility into service in 2026, he said. Meanwhile, energy co-operation between Alberta and B.C. has the potential to grow into other areas. For instance, in exchange for helping one energy sector in Alberta — natural gas — Alberta
In a press release, Horgan’s office stated that Ralston’s priorities will include implementing initiatives that support the CleanBC climate change plan, including the development of carbon capture and storage technology. Ralston will oversee BC Hydro and the $10.7-billion Site C project, and will continue
to serve as lead minister for consular affairs. Mungall takes on Ralston’s old post, and “will be responsible for trade, and engage with industry associations and major sectors on government’s approach to quality economic growth.” “These ministers will work hard every day to deliver sustainable economic growth that provides good jobs, a better quality of life and a stronger province for people in every region,” Horgan said in the release. “I am confident they will put their knowledge and energy to work for people, as we focus on building an economy that works for everyone.” What role Ralston will have in advancing the LNG file remains to be seen: The release made no mention of it, and Horgan’s office did not respond to a request for comment. Mary Polak, house leader for the Opposition Liberals, questioned Ralston’s shuffle into the portfolio, given the pending trial and challenges facing B.C.’s energy and mines sector. Chief among them is what looks to be a protracted blockade over construction of a section of the Coastal GasLink pipeline near Houston, which will feed the LNG Canada facility being built on the west coast in Kitimat with natural gas from the Peace region. “This is not a part of their government that they are really trying to drive,” Polak said. “We know there is an awful lot of potential prosperity there for British Columbians if we have someone in energy and mines really driving the portfolio.”
could provide a market for another energy sector in B.C.: electricity. B.C. is building a new $10-billion hydroelectric dam, Site C, which will produce a surplus of power when it turns on in 2025. And it has independent power producers and First Nations lobbying hard for power purchase calls for new renewable energy projects — projects that won’t be needed, unless there is a serious push to decarbonize Western Canada’s oil and gas sector through electrification. There could be a demand for B.C.’s clean power, both in the oilsands and natural gas, to lower the sector’s emissions intensity through greater electrification. B.C. hydro dams could also backstop some of the intermittent wind and solar power that is expected to be built in Alberta, as it phases out coal power.
“Without doubt, there is opportunity for both our provinces to develop some of the lowest GHG emission natural gas in the world, and meet the growing market demand for lower emission energy sources,” Michelle Mungall, B.C.’s former minister of energy, mines and petroleum resources, told BIV. Bruce Ralston was appointed on Jan. 22, 2020, as B.C.’s new minister of energy, mines and petroleum resources as part of a cabinet shuffle by Premier Horgan. Mungall was appointed as minister of jobs, economic development and competitiveness. “It is in the best interest of both Alberta and B.C. to co-operate as much as possible on the energy front,” Nally added. — Business in Vancouver, with files from Richard Macedo
An Evening with Rex Murphy March 4, 2020 North Peace Cultural Centre Fort St. John
Register at icba.ca/rex-in-fsj
Doors open at 6:15 p.m.
or purchase tickets at the North Peace Cultural Centre box office.
Tickets: $65
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FEBRUARY 21, 2020
Canada’s sustainable fossil fuel conundrum NELSON BENNETT
The Globe 2020 conference on sustainability and innovation opened this month with a number of fossil fuel projects dominating headlines in Canada, and a clash of cultures and beliefs – indigenous versus non-indigenous, capitalism versus socialism, youth versus boomers – tearing at the Canadian social fabric. The “elephant in the room” at a panel discussion on Canada’s energy transition is that there are “divergent and competing views” about what Canada’s energy future should look like, said Chad Park, chief innovation office of The Natural Step, which advises business and government on sustainability. Will the #ShutDownCanada protests succeed in halting the $6.6 billion Coastal GasLink pipeline? Will the Trudeau government reject the $20 billion Frontier oil sands project later this month? Is Canada really moving towards reconciliation with indigenous people or heading for a collision? Those are some of the background questions to the discussions taking place this week, especially with respect to energy, at the biennial Globe conference, which focuses on sustainability, innovation and finance. Concerns about climate change has created an either-or view of energy, with increasing pressure to leave fossil fuels in the ground as the way to address Canada’s own emissions profile. But that just means more business and economic prosperity for oil producing nations that don’t have indigenous rights issues to deal with or strong climate change policies. The global demand for fossil fuels is not expected to peak for decades yet. “The world demand for energy just keeps going up,” said Martha Hall Findlay, former CEO of the Canada West Foundation, and now chief sustainability officer for Suncor Energy (TSX:SU). “Energy is going way up, and it’s going to continue to go up, and we have to get emissions down big time, really fast.” She acknowledged that companies like Suncor, a large oil sands company, are “a really big part of the problem.” But she said companies like Suncor have the deep pockets to invest in technology solutions to reduce emissions. “Given that we’re such a big part of the problem, in terms of our overall GHG emission footprint, we’re pretty well positioned to be a hell of a big part of the solution,” she said. But Canada is at a crossroads, when it comes to trying to reconcile its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to build oil pipelines and allow oil sands
Discussing Canada’s energy transition at Globe 2020, from left: Martha Hall Findlay, Suncor, Andy Chisholm, RBC, Leah Lawrence, SDTC. | Nelson Bennett Photo
development. At an opening plenary session, David WallaceWells, an American writer and author of The Uninhabitable Earth, criticized the Trudeau government for “climate hypocrisy…where we declare a climate emergency, as Canada did, and the very next day approve the oil pipeline,” -- a reference to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Later this month, federal Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is expected to make a recommendation on whether to approve or reject the Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.B) $20 billion Frontier oil sands project. Wilkinson, who spoke at the plenary session, gave no hint as to which way he is leaning on the Frontier project. He said Canada needs to find an additional 77 megatonnes, over and above the 200 megatonnes already identified, just to meet its 2030 reduction target. “That is equivalent of halting all emissions in Quebec,” Wilkinson said. “Canada needs to be the cleanest source of resources as we transition to a low-carbon future,” Wilkinson said. “We have the innovative spirit and the know-how to provide the world with the most environmentally responsible resources. “Any oil and gas projects should have the lowest greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production, should develop a path to net-zero, and should have the lowest possible impact on biodiversity.” The Frontier project would add 4 megatonnes annually to Canada’s carbon budget, and would disturb close to 300 square kilometers of wetlands and boreal forest. Federal cabinet is said to be divided on whether the project should go ahead, or mark the end of oil sands expansion and the beginning of a major transition to Canada’s energy economy. Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi told Business in Vancouver that the Frontier project, like Trans Mountain, has become “symbolic way beyond the project itself.” And we warned of the division that will result if the Trudeau government rejects the project. “The consequences of a rejection would be far reaching,” Nenshi said. “There would be consequences for national unity, there would be real consequences for the provincial-federal relationships across the country. “But also there’s real consequences to investor
confidence. You’ve got investors around the world that’s saying, ‘Here’s a company that invested $1 billion, ten years, jumped through all the hoops, got a positive environmental assessment and then at the end were told no.’ “Fundamentally, saying no to something like this says, to a lot of investors, ‘Look, don’t bother investing in Canada.’” Canada already has a problem when it comes to accessing capital, and the dearth of risk capital has squelched Canada’s technology and cleantech sectors. “Right now in the capital markets, we are falling behind,” said Andy Chrisholm, a member of the panel on sustainable finance for the Royal Bank of Canada. In part, because of Canada’s green electrical grid, Christholm said Canada has the potential to be “the country with the cleanest resources, most environmentally responsible, most socially responsible. “And that starts with oil and gas. Some of those experts are also going to become experts in hydrogen, in carbon capture…biofuels. And we must recognize that expertise and that potential resides within the existing energy complex to a degree.” But while Canada has been a great incubator of innovative clean technology, it has done a poor job of helping clean-tech companies scale up and commercialize in Canada. Leah Lawrence, president of Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC), pointed to Brazil Biofuels as an example. It was a Canadian company, Iogen Corp., that developed the ethanol production technology now commercialized by Brazil Biofuels. “That was a Canadian company that got to the point where it needed to scale up, and nobody in Canada wanted to fund it, so it had to go to Brazil to be able to do it,” Lawrence said. “There are so many Canadian examples that have been around for 20 years and we choose not to commercialize them in Canada. General Fusion’s going to have it happen to them, quantum computing is going have it happen to it, AI’s going to have it happen to it. It’s time to start talking about it and start to pick some of those things that we know are smart and get moving.” — Business in Vancouver
FEBRUARY 21, 2020
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Construction of the Site C powerhouse continues with installation of penstock units at the top of the structure, November 2019. | BC Hydro Photo
Northeast B.C. economic outlook The Site C dam is helping to pick up the slack in a subdued northeast B.C. economy, as weak resource market conditions will continue to hamper growth this year, says a new economic report released Feb. 10. Central 1 Credit Union’s Regional Economic Outlook expects employment and population growth in the region to remain flat as the oil, gas, forestry, and mining industries remain subdued from 2019. The $10.7-billion Site C buildout is bringing economic benefits to the region, says Central 1’s deputy chief economist Bryan Yu. The B.C. economy is forecast to grow by 2.8% this year. Yu’s outlook: Site C Economic drivers in the northeast are mixed. Currently, build out of the Site C dam continues to provide economic benefits for the region. According to BC Hydro, there were more than 3,900 construction and non-construction contractors working on the site in November,
which was up by a third from same-month 2018. While only 20 per cent are from the Peace region and the remainder being filled by mobile workers from other parts of B.C. Many of these individuals are not captured in the Labour Force Survey estimates but do contribute to the local consumer demand.
which is not forthcoming. Longerterm completion of LNG Canada’s export terminal will boost natural gas drilling in the region and investment, although this will lift the economy in 2021 and after. Work on the Coastal Gaslink Pipeline will modestly support employment.
Oil and gas At the same time, key industries remain in subdued. Investment interest remained low in the oil and gas space with land right sales plunging in 2019. Only 20,000 hectares were disposed of by the government, with total tender bonus at a $14.7 million and down 77 per cent from an already weak year of $64.1 million in sales 2018. This was the lowest on record. Drilling rigs in B.C. continued to decline in 2019. There is little in the near-term to drive a sectoral improvement. Natural gas prices remain low, while an increase in B.C. natural gas demand will likely require a sectoral rebound in Alberta oil production and investment
Forestry Like other regions, forestry has been hit by the broad market downturn. While less impacted by the mountain pine beetle epidemic than other regions in B.C., the Northeast has not been immune to the downturn. LouisianaPacific OSB mill in Fort St. John shut down its operation in June citing slumping demand and high wood costs. The firm reportedly employed 190 people and had capacity of 800 million square feet. Louisiana Pacifi c’s Dawson Creek plant is in better shape, with the plant receiving $4.5 million in funding in early 2019 to convert to SmartSide Lap Siding production, generating higher value
production. Curtailments have also occurred at Canfor’s Chetwynd and Fort St. John operations, alongside similar decisions by other fi rms in the region. Timber harvest activity has declined sharply. Improved market conditions could lift the region given less MPB effects, but recent closures suggest lower manufacturing capacity in the future and fewer available jobs. Affected workers will likely transition into projects like Site C and possibly the buildout of LNG Canada’s liquefaction plant and pipelines, although skills are not entirely transferable. Mining Adding to the parade of negative news has been a weakening coal market which is curtailing exploration and hampering expansion plans for new mines. Conuma operations are stable but low prices will bite into operations. The U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal will support global market conditions for steel which will stabilize the coal outlook.
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Resource rally Approximately 50 people came out to show their support for natural resource sector workers at a rally outside the B.C. Natural Resources Forum. On Jan. 29, a convoy of trucks, service vehicles and other vehicles made its way to the Prince George Conference and Civic Centre. The convoy was prevented by police from parking outside the centre, but the rally -organized by Resource Workers United and The North Matters - drew a small crowd on foot in Canada Games Plaza. “We are the providers and protectors of our community. We are here to tell outsiders who are paid to block our opportunities, ‘we got this,’” The North Matters founder Dave Johnston said during the rally. “Let’s start standing up in unity.” People living in the urban parts of Canada, and those concerned about the environment, need to understand that, “Canadian resources are not your enemies,” speaker Trudy Klassen said. Canada’s natural resources and the people who work them are the country’s greatest asset, Klassen added, and should be a source of pride. And, if Canada isn’t providing those natural resources to the world somebody else will, she added, and likely without the same high environmental standards. “We are proud, we don’t want handouts or extended EI benefits,” Klassen said. “Maybe we’d get more sympathy if we were listed as an endangered species.” Hereditary Chief Helen Michelle of Skin Tyee Nation, part of the Wet’suwet’en, said not all
Trudy Klassen speaks as nearly 50 supporters gather during the The North Matters resource worker rally on Jan. 29 in Canada Games Plaza outside the 17th Annual B.C. Natural Resources Forum. | JAMES DOYLE PHOTO
members of the Wet’suwet’en are opposed to the Coastal GasLink (CGL) natural gas pipeline project. Some of the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs and their supporters have issued an “eviction notice” to the company and have built a blockade on Morice West Forest Service Road southwest of Houston, B.C. “I support CGL. It’s an opportunity for us as well,” Michelle said. “And when CGL came to meet with us, we had lots of consultation.” As a hereditary chief since she was a teenager, Michelle said she cares about her people, their
traditions and their land. “We were raised and born in the very territory,” she said. “I love our traditional territory, I don’t want any damages (to it). (But) I’m totally aware of how my people feel with no jobs.” The pipeline is an economic opportunity for her people, she said. “Today I really enjoy the gas I used in my vehicle,” Michelle added. “I’d get pretty cold without that fuel.” — Prince George Citizen
Economy buoyed by Site C and LNG
Northern Development CEO Joel McKay, presents the 2019 State of the North Economic Report at the B.C. Natural Resources Forum in Prince George, Jan. 30, 2020. | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVE TRUST PHOTO
Significant energy investments in the Site C dam and LNG Canada projects are continuing to drive development across northern B.C., but the region remains challenged by a “deepening decline” in forestry and an uncertain outlook for agriculture, says a new economic report released Jan. 30. The Northern Development Initiative Trust released its third annual State of the North report on Jan. 30 offering a snapshot on the health of the agriculture, forestry, energy, and tourism industries, as well as northern B.C.’s four development regions. “This year’s report really sheds light on what we’ve been hearing anecdotally for years – that the rural economy is transitioning to a new mode of operation, albeit at a slower pace than Canada’s major urban centres,” CEO Joel McKay said in a news release.
“For us, it highlights the continued need to support our natural resource sectors wherever possible, invest in diversification and knowledgebased job opportunities and support our communities to ensure they’re attractive, vibrant places well-positioned for long-term sustainability.” The short-term outlook for northern B.C. is “mixed at best,” the organization said, with the mining, oil and gas, and tourism sectors all on the rise. However, agriculture futures remain unknown due to trade concerns and weather. And forestry is expected to continue to decline. The $40-billion LNG Canada project alone is expected to account for about 0.7% of B.C.’s GDP growth this year. Roughly 1,000 workers are on site in Kitimat setting the stage for main construction, while the first sectons of pipe for the $6.6-billion Coastal GasLink
pipeline are expected to be put in the ground this summer. At Site C, crews are working to complete the tunnels necessary to divert the Peace River outside Fort St. John, which will allow crews to begin building the kilometre long earthfill dam this fall. The north is expected to see an uptick in new business formations and housing starts, “signalling that major projects, primarily led by the oil and gas sector, are driving development in key parts of Northern B.C.,” NDIT said. Looking ahead to 2040, the north will see shifting demographics and slower population growth compared with the rest of B.C., NDIT said, while the Lower Mainland will continue to see outsize growth. The unemployment rate in northern B.C. is “relatively low” at 5.8% overall, but still 1.1% higher than the provincial average, it said.