KEY FINDINGS n Business Activity Index rises 16.5 points to signal only a slight decline n Softest reduction in new orders since March n Output expectations climb to four-month high
NATWEST SOUTH EAST ® PMI
Private sector output approaches stabilisation in June
The headline NatWest South East Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – climbed a survey-record 16.5 points from May to 49.3 in June, signalling a significantly softer reduction in private sector activity. The seasonally adjusted New Business Index remained below the 50.0 neutral mark for a fourth successive
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month during June, to signal a further reduction in order book volumes in the South East. Panellists linked the fall to weak demand conditions. That said, the index rose 15.8 points from May to indicate a substantially softer rate of decline, with some firms reporting that looser restrictions had allowed companies to restart operations. Incoming new business also fell at the UK level during June, with the rate of contraction slightly outpacing that seen in the South East.
Private sector firms in the South East remained confident with regards to activity over the coming 12-months in May. In fact, sentiment improved further and reached a four-month high. Anecdotal evidence linked optimism to looser lockdown restrictions and hopes of an economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. Moreover, the level of positive sentiment in the South East exceeded that recorded at the UK level in June.
