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summer
OF sport
2013
, previewsd stats an ts be the best the for all ts BIG even
wimbledon/the ashes/the open/premier league nfl/us open tennis/formula 1/tour de france/darts
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Sizzling sport We might not be able to guarantee you sunshine this summer, but we can promise it will be one of the hottest few months of sport ever. It all kicks off at Wimbledon on June 24, where the quest for a British winner continues. From Murray Mound it’s straight off to Trent Bridge for the first of an epic five Test matches to decide the destiny of the Ashes. And just after the first Test has been settled the world’s best golfers will tee off at Muirfield for the start of the Open Championship. Add in the Greyhound Derby Final, the British Grand Prix, the Tour de France, World Matchplay Darts, the NFL at Wembley and the start of the 2013/14 Premier League, and it’s fair to say you won’t have time to bemoan the British weather.
Summer of sport
s t n e t co n
Enjoy and good luck,
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PLY PUBLISHING Editorial Director Dave Woods Art Director Marc Southey Managing Editor Scott Skinner Contributors Sean Calvert, James Eastham, Ralph Ellis, Ed Hawkins, Steve Hill, Alex Narey, David Tuchman Betfair Sports Senior Marketing Manager Matthew Hopper Sports Marketing Executive Matt Williams Sports and Specials P&L Senior Manager Richard Hayward
Richard Hayward, Team Betfair
4 Wimbledon 8 Greyhound Derby Final 9 F1: British Grand Prix 9 Tour de France 10 The Ashes 14 The Open Championship 17 World Matchplay Darts 18 Premier League 20 US Open All prices 21 NFL correct at time of going to 22 The Betfair Edge press 26 Summer’s Best Bets
Legal Counsel Jo Wellman. Entire contents © Betfair Ltd. 18+
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Mon June 24 – Sun July 7 Watch it: BBC
Game, set and match … Nadal? After Murray’s near miss last year we’re not ruling him out, but tennis is a form game and the Spaniard is currently on fire
£985M Betfair matched close to £64m in the Men’s final last year and almost £1bn in the combined Match Odds markets.
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Nadal is a great shout to win his third Wimbledon title
Men’s final: Sun July 7
WIMBLEDON
If there’s one thing the British public wants every summer – bar sunshine – it’s a British win at Wimbledon. Andy Murray came close last year but fell to a majestic display from Roger Federer. The defeat seemed to spur Murray on to victory in the Olympics against Federer and to his first Slam in an epic US Open final against Novak Djokovic. So could 2013 be his year? There are two factors to consider. Firstly, Murray withdrew from the French Open with a back injury. Hopefully he’ll be fresh and ready for action come June 24, but if he is at less than 100% his hopes will be dashed. Secondly, Rafael Nadal is back. Currently ranked fifth in the world after 222 days out injured, he’s won seven tournaments from nine since his return in February, and lost in the final in the other two. That’s form.
The power four Murray is paying for being among an elite group of players. In the past ten years Federer has won Wimbledon seven times, Nadal twice and Djokovic once. We can say with near certainty that the winner will come from one of the ‘power four’. There have been premature claims The last ten Wimbledon that Federer’s game has peaked but titles have been shared the evidence is mounting. He’s only between three players: won two Grand Slams since the Federer (seven), start of 2010. This year his win/loss Nadal (two) and record is 22/7 and he played the Djokovic (one). French Open without a title in the calendar year. He needs a purple patch to repeat last year’s heroics, and even then his best might not be enough.
DOMINATION
Luck of the draw
Before you bet! Check the draw – can murray avoid nadal and djokovic?
This year’s draw could have huge implications for all of the big players. If Nadal starts as fifth seed there’s a good chance he’ll meet one of the top three in the quarters, and he might have to beat all three to win it. Murray or Djokovic, conversely, could get easy draws. If it goes Murray’s way his experience from last year could be a factor. We’re not ruling him out but, if you fancy a patriotic punt, check his draw first. Nadal, at 4.7, is too big to ignore though. Is it wise to take on Djokovic? It’s true the Serb negates Nadal’s huge topspin by taking the ball early on the baseline. This is even more effective on grass. They’ve only met twice at Wimbledon – Djokovic beat Nadal in the 2011 final and retired when they met in 2007. Technically then Djokovic hasn’t lost to Nadal at Wimbledon, making him the surface favourite. If it’s a toss-up between form favourite and surface favourite, we’ll take the bigger price. 18+
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men’s analysis
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n Federer n Nadal n Del Potro n Murray n Djokovic
t he res t f o Best Beyond the outrights there are some other great bets to be found in the Men’s singles. Study the first round draw carefully and look for seeded players that are up against grass court specialists. The odds could well be skewed. The surface might have less of an impact these days, but these matches will still represent great bets. Finally, if you want to make a decent bet out of the top seeds in round one, lump them all together for a multiple and hope to avoid a rare early upset.
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We don’t think anyone outside the big four is going to make the final. We’d go further and say that it’s unlikely anyone outside the four will make the semis – apart from Berdych and Tsonga (if they get a favourable draw). French powerhouse Tsonga has made the semi finals for the past two years.
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There are a few outsiders capable of crashing the quarters. The biggest price is likely to be Grigor Dimitrov, who’s beaten Djokovic this year and taken Nadal the distance in Monte Carlo. Raonich and Wawrinka shouldn’t be discounted either. Avoid Ferrer (despite his seeding, he’s not keen on grass) and Del Potro (who missed the French Open with a virus).
Grand Slam Monopoly Murray has turned the power three into a quartet, but he’s still way behind in terms of Grand Slams
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n Federer n Nadal n Murray n Djokovic n Bjorkman n Baghdatis n Berdych n Roddick n Gasquet n Schüttler n Safin n Haas n Tsonga
Ladies’ final: Sat July 6
Men
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Djokovic 2.9
S Williams
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Nadal 4.7
Azarenka 9.6
Murray 5.6
Sharapova 10.0
Federer 7.2
Kvitová 24.0
WIMBLEDON
Serena Williams is a short price to retain
outright prices
Recommended bets Men’s Singles
ladies’ singles preview Serena Williams is too short to back so look to the big prices to profit The betting for this year’s Ladies’ Singles Championship is dominated by one woman: Serena Williams. She’s been in destructive form of late and has returned to what she sees as her rightful position at the head of the rankings. She is less than even money to claim her sixth Wimbledon crown, which is too short given her age and injury record. Given that, and despite the fact there isn’t a big difference between hard, clay and grass courts these days, there are a few specialists to look out for. Tamira Paszek has been in awful form this season and going into the French Open she’d won one match all year. She was knocked out in the first round by Melanie Oudin. However, she won Eastbourne last year and made the quarter finals at Wimbledon, and is currently priced at a massive 420.0. Tsvetana Pironkova is another lover of grass who’s been in poor form this year. She could come alive at Wimbledon and is priced at 330.0. Sabine Lisicki (80.0) also has the game to test the best on grass. Add Petra Kvitová (24.0) to the mix – if she can find her form again she could figure. British fans will look to Laura Robson to improve on her disappointing French Open at a price of 170.0.
The experts – Betting.Betfair.com
It’s one from four but we fancy Nadal to do the business. Check the draw first though.
Rafael Nadal @ 4.7 To reach the final If Murray can avoid Nadal or Djokovic in the semis he’s a good shot to make the final again.
Andy Murray To reach the semi finals Tsonga has made the semis for the past two years and Berdych could join him this year.
Tomas Berdych Jo-Wilfried Tsonga To reach the quarter finals Dimitrov has the game on grass to go deep. Wawrinka and Raonich are unlikely to go further.
Grigor Dimitrov Stanislas Wawrinka Milos Raonich ladies’ singles Serena Williams is too short to back and beyond Petra Kvitová there are no standout prices. Back-to-lay these longer shots instead.
Back-to-lay Lisicki @ 80.0 Back-to-lay Paszek @ 420.0 SEE PAGE 20 FOR OUR RECOMMENDED BETS FOR THE 2013 US OPEN
Get the latest tips from the best in the field
Sean Calvert n Sean is a sports journalist who specialises in tennis. He picked Murray to win the 2012 Olympics and will be making regular Wimbledon updates.
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Greyhound Derby final – June 29, Sky Sports 2
Can Ballymac Eske, the early Derby favourite, win through the massive 150-dog field?
Gone to the dogs Greyhound racing is fast, furious and fun to bet on says Darrell Williams Betting on the dogs isn’t just fun – it’s also a great night out where you can come back with more money than when you set off. And, with only six dogs in every race to choose from, it couldn’t be easier to understand if you want to get involved. But while luck will bring you a share of the winners, it’s very easy to turn the odds in your favour. Betfair provides 1-2-3 selections – the dogs the experts think will finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd – plus a quick synopsis on every race it covers, including all the races screened live in the betting shops. That’s a race every seven or so minutes from 11am to 9pm every day. You can also watch and wager on the dogs at home with Racing Post Greyhound TV providing 25 live races a night from 7.15pm every Wednesday through to Sunday on Sky Channel 212, where informed presenters and experts help mark your card. And there’s more, with Sky Sports covering all the major races two or three times a month highlighted by the biggest race of them all, the Greyhound Derby – the final of which is live on Sky Sports on Saturday June 29. And for that little spot of extra help, why not check out Betting.Betfair for views and selections on all the action. But if you’d rather do your own form study, just click on the ‘Greyhound Form’ link shown on every racecard on Betfair to access comprehensive information and stats on all the runners.
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The richest race £150k prize for the fastest of them all The Greyhound Derby is the world’s greatest greyhound race. And with £150,000 to the winner it’s a huge affair. By the time the winner crosses the line, sometime after 9pm on Saturday June 29, it will have contested six gruelling rounds – including the ultimate test of three rounds in eight days to earn a place in the final six. Scottish Derby champion Ballymac Eske, trained in Yorkshire by Barrie Draper, is the one they all have to beat, but overcoming a 150-strong field is seldom easy. Derby King Charlie Lister, so named because of his unprecedented six victories in the race, is unlikely to be too far from another Derby finalist or two, while last year’s winning handler Mark Wallis is another with runners expected to be involved as we reach the latter stages. Ireland have gone five years since last taking the prize, but it would be no surprise to see an Irish name or two in the final six with every chance that one of Paul Hennessy’s runners will be among them. See Betting.Betfair.com for tips for the Greyhound Derby final and Betfair.com for the 1-2-3 selections.
June 28-30 Watch it: BBC, Sky Sports
Summer of sport
TISH F1: BRI PRIX GRAND
Homeboy hero Five years since he won at Silverstone, Lewis Hamilton is the one to watch Hamilton’s move away from McLaren last winter caused surprise and controversy with the 28-year-old being accused of being motivated by money. But he was promised his new car would be competitive and after teammate Nico Rosberg won in Monte Carlo, Hamilton wants to take his turn here. Red Bull’s Mark Webber won last year in a dramatic, rain soaked race, but he and team mate Sebastian Vettel know the field is wide open this time. Fernando Alonso’s Ferrari has been fast and so too has been the surprise challenge of Kimi Räikkönen and Lotus. With a revised version of their 2013 wheels promised by Pirelli, engineers and garage crews will be on red alert and pit-stop strategy could be crucial. Hamilton could repeat his triumph of 2008
Recommended bet Lewis Hamilton to win @ 8.4
DE FRA TOUR
NCE
June 29 – July 21 Watch it: ITV
Wiggins out Froome in After last year’s Brit triumph it’s time for 2012’s unsung hero to pedal up Chris Froome was the ultimate sportsman of 2012 – the guy who could have been the first Brit to win the Tour de France but rode for his team instead. This year it’s his turn, and with Wiggins out with an injury Froome has Team Sky right behind him. Froome has shown his quality this season, leading the team and winning the Tour of Oman, the Critérium International and the Tour of Romandie. The big danger is Alberto Contador, determined to make a victorious comeback after being stripped of his 2010 title and banned last year for failing a drugs test. But, with his 30th birthday behind him, there must be a question mark over his ability to return to his peak.
Recommended bet Chris Froome to win @ 1.8
o Albert r to do Conta– 4.2 win
e Froom Chris – 1.8 in to w
The experts – Betting.Betfair.com Make even more informed bets today
Ralph Ellis n Ralph worked as a sports journalist on the national newspapers for 20 years and is now a freelancer at the Star, the Sunday Mirror and Daily Mail. He knows his sport.
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THE ASHES
clash of the titans
After years of Australian dominance it’s England’s turn to play as favourites, but can they live up to the billing? Ed Hawkins – SJA Betting Writer of the Year – calls the shots It wasn’t long ago that the Ashes was viewed as one of the more tepid betting affairs. For 16 years Australia pummelled England and finding value was as much fun as a wet weekend. But in 2005, it all changed. England have won three of the last four series and are 1.4 favourites to win again, with Australia 5.4 and the draw 7.6. However, the gulf in ability is not as big as the prices suggest. England are not as good as they think they are, while Australia are not as bad as England think they are.
No soft touch It all stems from the two teams’ series in India. Under Alastair Cook, England won there for the first time since 1985. By contrast, Australia were thumped 4-0 – their worst performance in 111 Test campaigns. Despite this, it would be foolish to see Australia as soft touches. Opposite number for opposite number, there is little to separate them. Perhaps only Graeme Swann’s brand of off spin and James Anderson’s wizardry when the ball swings give England an edge. Counter this with Australia’s brute ability. Michael Clarke has improved as a batsman while captain and Australia have greater fast-bowling resources. James Pattinson and Mitchell Starc should complement Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle, and over an arduous five-Test series that depth could be key. England cannot boast such impressive stand-ins. There is no doubt England will be asked difficult questions. Some were recently raised by New Zealand as England flattered to deceive and were often found wanting against a pace attack similar to Australia’s. Granted, they beat New Zealand at home, but they wobbled. There are other queries – Kevin Pietersen’s knee injury and Compton’s paucity of runs means that England will probably be without a settled opening duo.
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betting in-play! the toss is key to the first test. back the aussies if they win it
Wed July 10 – Sun August 25 Watch it: Sky Sports
Second Test
Trent Bridge, July 10-14
Lord’s, July 18-22
Picking this swing venue for the first Test is a risky call by England. The ground is famous for helping the ball to bend and their batsmen have hardly impressed in such conditions. Granted, England’s bowlers could wreak havoc, but the toss will be key. There will be swing throughout and with six of the last nine Tests won by the side batting first, Australia could be a good wager if they get the call right.
Expect runs, most likely from the hosts. On the last five occasions England have batted first they have posted more than 400 four times, and also hit 425 against Australia in their last Test meeting at Lord’s in 2009. After six consecutive Tests ended in stalemate here between 2006 and 2008 the surface was criticised, but there is life left in the old track. Nine of the last ten have produced results.
THE ASHES
First Test
skinny
England are 1.4 to win the series with Australia at 5.4. This makes it look like a formality on paper but we’re expecting it to be a much tougher battle.
Cook and Clarke go head to head for the urn
Third Test Old Trafford, August 1-5 Old Trafford has hosted only six Tests in the last ten years which is a surprise considering England have won five of them. The odd one out was the sell-out draw against the Aussies in 2005. The wicket has suited England’s fast men in the past, offering pace and bounce. Bangladesh, New Zealand, Pakistan and West Indies have all been routed for 165 or fewer. Keep an eye on the famously murky Manchester weather – this could be one for the draw layers.
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ANALYSIS
watc h o t s l ay e r
d o hea H ea d t
Kevin Pietersen
Graeme Swann
A run machine in the success Down Under – he scored 766 runs – he can’t afford to get loose in bowlerfriendly conditions considering he sets the tone.
When he’s not sulking, he’s not fit. But when he does fire, so do England. Pietersen is the strokemaker in an otherwise stodgy batting line-up.
A fresh Swann is the series’ only genuine match-winning spin bowler. Australia cannot match him. If they don’t counter him, they lose.
Michael Clarke
James Pattinson
Shane Watson
Don’t let the ‘Pup’ nickname fool you. Clarke is a Rottweiler who averages almost 14 runs more as leader. If England break him, they break Australia.
The 23-year-old is Australia’s pace hope. He could blitz England. He has 40 wickets in ten Tests and the best strike rate for the Aussies. Can they keep him fit?
In the last two years, Watson averaged 21.11 batting anywhere but the opening slots. He averages 43.06 as a Test opener. Seems like a no-brainer to us.
Fourth Test
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HE THE AS
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Fifth Test
Riverside, August 9-13
The Oval, August 21-25
A curate’s egg of a venue considering it offers a lovely view of Lumley Castle, but it can be bitterly cold in County Durham. Indeed, far-flung visitors retreat into their shell somewhat and suffer a beating. England have won four out of four here. It is difficult to assess the pitch because the opposition have been so hopeless, and it is a blessing that this could be the first competitive Test. The wicket has a reputation for being fair to both bat and ball.
They’ll be queuing all the way back to Vauxhall tube if the series is still alive by the fifth Test. In the last two Ashes series they have been. Who can forget Kevin Pietersen’s ego-defining innings in 2005 or Stuart Broad’s hat-trick four years later? The Oval is England’s second most successful home ground in terms of win-loss ratios, but they have been beaten in two of their last three. Australia have a horrible record there winning six from 35, comfortably their least happy English ground.
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outright prices England to retain the Ashes
Series winner
Yes 1.2 No 5.0
England 1.4 Australia 5.4
series score
Take two – the Ashes in Aus Before the dust has settled it’ll be time to do it all over again And then they will do it all again. A mere three months after the Ashes, England and Australia meet Down Under. The breaking of the bi-annual cycle is at the behest of England who are tired of lengthy tours in Australia just before a World Cup. They have argued that the slog has hampered their chances of winning their first 50-over crown. Some purists have said this dilutes the Ashes fare. But who cares about them? It could be a grudge match like no other which will have punters salivating by the time stumps are rooted at The Oval. Familiarity breeds contempt and the scars of personal duels will not have had the time to heal. If England retain the urn at home with a victory, they should be slight favourites to win in Australia, which is probably the toughest place to triumph behind India. The hard-baked pitches jar the joints, the heat saps the spirit and the home brethren holler insults. England won 3-1 there two years ago but they have been humiliated pretty much in every series since 1986. It will be a test of their credentials to topple South Africa as world number one. Or Australia could reassert their authority, reverting to the Old World Order. The five Tests in England are just the appetiser, folks.
The experts – Betting.Betfair.com
Eng 2-0 Eng 3-0 Eng 2-1 Eng 3-1
15.0 6.2 9.2 7.8
Aus 2-0 Aus 3-0 Aus 2-1 Aus 3-1
THE ASHES
Winning Down Under could prove trickier
40.0 42.0 15.5 21.0
Recommended bets first test – trent bridge Of the five Test venues, England are least successful at Trent Bridge and are as vulnerable as any other team to the moving ball. If Australia exploit the conditions expect their price to crash.
Back-to-lay Australia @ 4.5 series score Australia haven’t failed to win an Ashes Test since 1977. They are not bad enough to start now and the smart money is on England to win 3-1 or 2-1 at around 7.8 or 9.2 respectively.
England to win 2-1 @ 9.2 Australia top series batsman In the last two years, Michael Clarke has almost 1,000 more runs than any other Australian in Test cricket. He also has more runs than any other on tour against England. If he’s fit by the time the Ashes starts it’s a no-brainer.
Michael Clarke @ 3.0 England top series wicket taker Over the last 12 months the youngest Englishman to 50 Test wickets has also been England’s most impressive bowler in terms of strike rate (wickets per 100 balls). Steven Finn is stonking value here at 4.8.
Steven Finn @ 4.8
tips and analysis from the best in the business
Michael Vaughan n The last Englishman to be number one Test batsman in the world, Betfair’s Cricket Ambassador captained England to victory in 2005. Don’t miss his regular Ashes updates.
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garcia to tame the tiger? Winning bets in golf come through research and Alex Narey, of Golf Monthly, has been scouring the stats to give you the edge ahead of this year’s Open Championship
470
Ernie Els won last year’s Open after trading at a high of 470.0 In-Play. Adam Scott was matched at 1.02 but blew a four-shot lead with five holes to play. 14
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The Royal Lytham & St Annes crowd cheer Ernie Els up the 18th to victory
The Open Championship – July 18-21 Watch it: BBC
weather conditions affect this major more than any other
the open
betting in-play
This year, the Open returns to Muirfield, a course that demands the very best of a player’s ball striking. Those who can keep it in play will have a huge advantage over the field. Opens at Muirfield do not deliver unknown winners and the previous six were among the greatest players of their generation: Jack Nicklaus (1966), Lee Trevino (1972), Tom Watson (1980), Nick Faldo (1987 and 1992), and Ernie Els (2002). That’s some list! So you can forget the long shots. There will be no Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis winning this year. The world’s best are deserving of your attention.
Take on Tiger Tiger Woods is rightly installed as the 6.2 favourite, with the American enjoying his best season since his enforced break and subsequent fall down the rankings in 2009/10. However, he finished back in a tie for 28th the last time the Open was staged at the East Lothian links, and during a weather-affected third round, he shot his only ever score in the 80s as a professional. With this in mind, his price is too short. But there are other players with a The Open boasts 16 game equally suited to the course. back-to-back winners, Ironically given their recent spat, more than the other three one of those is Sergio Garcia, a Majors combined. Ernie masterful long-iron player whose Els won the Open last putting has improved significantly. He year and in 2002 at also won the Amateur Championship Muirfield. here in 1998, loves the course dearly and feels at home with the British crowds. At odds of 34.0, the Spaniard represents great value for the win or a top five finish.
symmetry
Watch the weather Looking elsewhere, if the fairways are baked hard, scores could soar. But the course’s notorious fairway pot-bunkers will also come into play, as will ball control on approach shots. When Ernie Els won here in 2002, he did so thanks to some of the finest sand play the tournament has seen. Other great bunker players will always be in the mix on this course, like Luke Donald. Meanwhile, backing certain players to miss the cut can also prove highly profitable. It would seem bizarre to tip up Rory McIlroy to do so, but he can blow hot and cold in the Open and his record on European soil is poor. The pressures and demands of an Open week also seem to take their toll. He is a genius and a wonderful frontrunner, but if he starts slowly he may struggle to recover so there’s plenty of appeal for In-Play punters. 18+
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Betting In-Play Keep one eye on the TV and one on betfair to profit while the balls are in the air
Weather watch The elements play a big part here but bad weather can allow certain players to take advantage – look out for ball-striking maestros such as Justin Rose.
Make or break 17th Par 5, 578 Yards A superb par 5 that has recently been extended by 29 yards. However, with the prevailing wind, many will fancy reaching the green in two as they chase a late score. The fairway traps to the left wait to catch out those attempting to cut the corner. If players choose to lay up, cross-bunkers will also become a factor, especially in a strong easterly wind.
Tee groupings The R&A like their marquee groupings, but the big guns can slip up as the galleries flock, upsetting a player’s rhythm. Look out for the stars who are paired with lower-ranked players.
The experts – Betting.Betfair.com get regular tips from our resident experts Steven Rawlings n ‘Triple-figure priced winners are common in golf,’ says Rawlings, ‘and the clues are there to dig them out’. Look out for his updates before and during the Open.
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Outright prices Tiger Woods Rory McIlroy Adam Scott Lee Westwood Luke Donald Sergio Garcia
6.2 16.0 22.0 24.0 32.0 34.0
Ernie Els Ricky Fowler M Manassero Paul Lawrie Thomas Aiken A Noren
42.0 55.0 60.0 140.0 180.0 200.0
Recommended bets Winner Sergio Garcia loves the course and the Open is the Major he feels most comfortable playing.
Sergio Garcia @ 34.0 Top Five finish Tee to green, there’s no better player in the world, but Westwood’s putting is his Achilles heel.
Lee Westwood Top Ten finish Paul Lawrie won the Open in 1999 due to Jean van de Velde’s collapse. He’s a better player now, with an all-round game to challenge.
Paul Lawrie Long Shot He’s only 21 but he’s already a four-time winner on the European Tour. His game is built on hitting fairways and greens – perfect for Muirfield.
Matteo Manessero @ 60.0 Top American Ricky Fowler loves the intricacies of links golf and is a fine wind player, as he showed at Royal St George’s in 2011 when he finished fifth.
Ricky Fowler First-round leader The favourites can play cautiously in the opening round. Look for value on players who have already won this year, with solid Open results.
Thomas Aiken and Alexander Noren
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July 20-28 Watch it: Sky Sports
Power shift
12 months in darts
Can the heavy-hitting Michael van Gerwen switch off The Power? 20
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For years, seasoned nose-tappers have predicted Phil Taylor’s inevitable demise. But time and again he has proven the doubters wrong, not least when he overcame young Dutch upstart Michael van Gerwen in this year’s World Championship final. Undeterred, Van Gerwen threw himself into his first Premier League with gusto and the two met again in the final. The Power surged into a 5-2 lead, but an exceptional performance from MVG saw the Dutchman complete a remarkable comeback. The stunning title-clinching finish of 132 was as notable for its speed as its accuracy, and representative of the extraordinary darts the Dutchman is producing. Van Gerwen should go into the World Matchplay as slight favourite after picking off the inaugural Dubai Duty Free Darts Masters (with Taylor falling at the first hurdle). Like these two tournaments, the World Matchplay is leg-based and it’s a format that seems to suit the Dutchman. This year will represent the 20th running of the competition at Blackpool’s historic Winter Gardens – Phil Taylor has won it 13 times, including the last five. MVG has yet to trouble the business end, but such is his run of form that he simply cannot be overlooked. History has taught us never to write off Taylor, but he will have to find another gear to defeat the man in green.
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Summer of sport
WorldDarts play Match
n Phil Taylor n Michael van Gerwen n Mervyn King n James Wade n Raymond van Barneveld Phil Taylor finally has a worthy rival to his crown
Recommended bets winner Michael van Gerwen @ 3.0 to reach the final? James Wade has won this before and if Taylor falls he could pounce again.
James Wade nine dart finish? Van Gerwen can give the crowd what they want.
Yes
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4 2013/1eague er L Premi
Premier League Watch it: Sky Sports, BT TV
The return of Mourinho could be the title-deciding factor
The Special One returns
The top three teams from last season have all changed their managers but Chelsea can expect a smoother transition with the return of José Mourinho With Sir Alex Ferguson and Roberto Mancini gone and their chosen successors David Moyes and Manuel Pellegrini bound to have teething problems at some point, the Manchester clubs may struggle to dominate at the top. José Mourinho’s Chelsea will attract plenty of attention, and with nothing between the prices of the top three we think they could be the pick of the bunch. The chances of Arsenal and Tottenham having a say in the title race are slim. However, the north London duo are big players in the ‘Top 4 Finish’ market. Last season Arsenal needed a final-day victory to claim a Champions League spot, but there’s no reason why Spurs won’t be able to overturn that
Premier League champions 18
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Man Utd 1992-93
outcome this time if they keep hold of Gareth Bale. At the foot of the table promoted teams dominate the relegation market, but the stats show Crystal Palace, Hull and Cardiff are far from automatically doomed (see right). Instead bigger-priced teams may be worth an investment to bite the dust. For different reasons Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich may be worth considering. For Stoke 2013/14 will be almost like starting life all over again following the departure of manager Tony Pulis. At Sunderland Paolo Di Canio’s confrontational style could be a success or a disaster and Norwich may find it hard to retain top-level status on limited resources after just about keeping their heads above water last season.
Man Utd Blackburn Man Utd 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96
Man Utd 1996-97
Arsenal 1997-98
Man Utd 1998-99
Man Utd 1999-00
Man Utd 2000-01
outright prices
First fixtures: Sat August 17
Man Utd
3.3
Man City
Chelsea 3.5
40%
3.5
Arsenal 12.5
Recommended bets
27%
champions There are new managers for all three top teams but Chelsea’s transition will be the smoothest.
62 teams have been promoted to the PL and 25 have gone straight back down
Chelsea @ 3.5
Only four teams have suffered the same fate in the past five years
Top scorer RVP has won the Golden Boot for the last two years – back him for the hat-trick.
New boys
Crystal Palace have been promoted three times and have never survived.
Robin van Persie @ 5.2
Hull were promoted once and survived by a point before falling in their second season.
With Crystal Palace and Hull odds-on favourites, look to some bigger prices for the profit.
Cardiff have never played in the Premier League and it’s their first time in the top flight for 51 years.
Stoke @ 4.1 Norwich @ 4.2
2013/14 Premier League
CHAMPIONS
Going straight down?
Relegation
2013/14 Premier League Predictor 2012/13 Premier League Man Utd 89 Man City 78 Chelsea 75 Arsenal 73 Tottenham 72 Everton 63 Liverpool 61 West Brom 49 Swansea 46 West Ham 46 Norwich 44 Fulham 43 Stoke 42 Southampton 41 Aston Villa 41 Newcastle 41 Sunderland 39 Wigan 36 Reading 28 QPR 25 Arsenal 2001-02
Man Utd 2002-03
Arsenal 2003-04
Europe The clear breakaway group at the top is likely to remain unchanged. Liverpool will fancy their chances of breaking into the elite but we don’t. Merseyside derby Everton finished above Liverpool for the second season in a row last year – it’s the first time they’ve achieved that in the top flight since 1937. As good a manager as Martinez is, with Moyes out they’re going to struggle to do it again. Mid-table obscurity It’s tight in the middle. Only ten points separated West Brom from Sunderland last year. Swansea, West Brom, West Ham and Newcastle make up the teams we think will avoid getting into a dogfight next season. Relegation fodder Crystal Palace and Hull are favourites to go down. We see them fighting it out with Sunderland, Norwich and Stoke. Chelsea 2004-05
Chelsea 2005-06
Man Utd 2006-07
Man Utd 2007-08
Man Utd 2008-09
Chelsea 2009-10
2013/14 Premier League Chelsea Man City Man Utd Arsenal Tottenham Liverpool Everton Swansea Newcastle West Ham West Brom Aston Villa Fulham Cardiff n/a Southampton Sunderland Hull n/a Norwich Stoke Crystal Palace n/a
Man Utd 2010-11
Man City 2011-12
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Man Utd 2012-13
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n ten US Ope
nis
August 26 – September 9 Watch it: Sky Sports Djokovic is set to repeat his 2011 US Open win
Return of Novak The first defence for Murray will be a test too far Andy Murray goes to New York looking to defend a Grand Slam title for the first time and he has a tough job on his hands with Rafa Nadal likely to be present, meaning that the Scot will probably need to beat two of Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Others who will be looking to figure in the shake-up are Juan Martín Del Potro, the 2009 champion whose game suits the conditions and Tomas Berdych, who defeated Federer last year. It’s not only the court conditions but the unique razzmatazz of the New York Major that makes it a special and different atmosphere which doesn’t suit all personalities. The first two Majors of the year have fallen to Djokovic and Nadal. We’re tipping Nadal to win his second at Wimbledon (see page 4) and if he does Djokovic will be a decent price to complete the sweep. The women’s market is headed by Serena Williams who dominated the French Open, extending her winning streak to a record 31 matches (with only five sets dropped). If she wins Wimbledon she will be far too short to back here and will face a threat from Defending a Grand Slam is Victoria Azarenka, who never easy and Murray faces pushed her all the way last an epic challenge. The last year. Former champion time the US Open was Maria Sharapova will also retained was in 2008 by figure, along with lively Roger Federer. outsider Na Li, who could go well at a nice price.
champion
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The long road Serena Williams has enjoyed an incredible career, with 16 Grand Slam wins over 15 years. However, she hasn’t won more than two Majors in a year since 2002. If she wins Wimbledon look to take her on at short odds here.
Grand Slam wins 3 2002 2 1
2003, 2009, 2010, 2012 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013
0
2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2011
Recommended bets Men’s singles Novak Djokovic Women’s singles Victoria Azarenka
ley
Sept 29 and Oct 27 WATCH IT: Sky Sports
Touchdown!
The Patriots thrashed the Rams last year
The NFL returns to Wembley and Sky TV pundit David Tuchman has the lowdown The NFL at Wembley has proved so popular you’re being treated to two matches this season. On September 29 the Minnesota Vikings ‘host’ the Pittsburgh Steelers in what should be a very competitive game. If you’re there you’ll see the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, one of the best Running Backs in the NFL. Not just now, ever. However it’s the Quarterback position that worries me. Christian Ponder hasn’t shown enough progress and I see Minnesota taking a step back in 2013. Current odds have them as a slight underdog to the Steelers, who have a great Quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers aren’t the team that won the Super Bowl in 2009 but, with Big Ben at QB, they should have enough to win this by 4-8 points.
Summer of sport
We m b NFL at
Second best The second Wembley game doesn’t look so good on paper. We have one of the most talented squads from top to bottom, San Francisco, vs. Jacksonville. The 49ers will be good for years to come and the kindest thing I can say about Jacksonville is that they’ll win more than the two games they won last year. After hearing all this you’d think I’m on the 49ers. Not the case. The current line has the 49ers as a 10.5 point favourite. As a general betting rule I hate giving more than 10 points in the regular season, so my money is on the Jags in the handicap market.
Recommended bets pittsburgh/minnesota Pittsburgh in the handicap market san francisco/jacksonville Jacksonville in the handicap market superbowl XLVIII outright The team that won it in 2012 is still pretty much in place. If they make the play-offs their best is as good as any team’s.
no return
Baltimore rode an emotional rollercoaster ride to the Superbowl last year. They’re 27.0 to repeat but I’d advise you to steer well clear of that.
New York Giants @ 29.0
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et
ob t w o H
The Betfair Edge
With Betfair you can bet how you want, when you want – and with Betfair Mobile – wherever you are. Here are seven reasons to bet with Betfair this summer…
1
Back or lay
n Choose which side of the bet you want to take With a traditional bookie you can only back selections. On the Betfair Exchange you can choose to back or lay – back prices are displayed in blue and lay prices in pink. In these examples, you can see prices for the Men’s Singles at Wimbledon. Novak Djokovic is the favourite and you can back him at 3.15. If you bet £/€100 on this and he won, you’d get £/€315 back pre-commission (Betfair usually takes 5% commission on winning bets). You can also take the other side of the bet and lay Djokovic. If you lay Djokovic for £/€100 at 3.2, your liability – the amount you stand to lose if he wins – is £/€220. If anyone other than Djokovic wins, then you win the £/€100 stake (pre-commission).
If you think Djokovic is going to win Wimbledon, back him at 3.15
If you don’t fancy his chances you can always bet against him on the Exchange
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Bet View slider
how to bet
2
new
n See the best odds for the money you want to bet Occasionally, on the Betfair Exchange you may see very high prices with small amounts available to fully match your bet. Placing your bet here would result in a partially matched bet. To avoid this Betfair have introduced the new Bet View Slider, which enables you to see the best price available to match your bet immediately.
The Bet View Slider allows you to see the best price available
How it works
n You think England will win the Ashes and want to back them for £/€100. The biggest price on the Exchange is 1.49 but there’s only £/€15 of funds available. n By moving the slider to £/€100 the Exchange displays the minimum price that the bet would be matched at – 1.47. n Happy with those odds you place the bet. Betfair has a system called ‘Best Execution’ which means your bet is matched at the best prices available at the time you place it. Clicking on Open Bets you’ll see that the £/€100 has been matched across three different prices – £/€15 at 1.49, £/€4 at 1.48, and the remainder at 1.47. n You can also use the new Bet View Slider on the Exchange Mobile app. You can set a default value for the slider in the settings menu.
Move the slider to see the minimum price your bet will be matched at
‘Best Execution’ ensures you get the best prices available
3
Cash Out
n Close your bet when you want, not when the event finishes On the Betfair Exchange you can cash out of a bet when you want. Cash Out enables you to lock in a profit, or get out of a losing bet, with a single click of a button. Say you backed Novak Djokovic for £/€100 at the start of Wimbledon at odds of 3.15. He makes the final easily and is up against Andy Murray. Djokovic is still the favourite and his odds have now shortened to 1.8. By clicking Cash Out you can lock in a £/€75 profit and enjoy the final knowing that whatever happens, you’ve already won.
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Betfair Mobile
n Get the official apps and bet on the move on Apple or Android devices You can bet whenever you want and wherever you are with Betfair Mobile. You can bet with Betfair on any mobile browser at Betfair.com, or get the official apps for the ultimate Betfair Mobile experience.
Get the apps! Betfair Exchange Betting Apple: download from the App Store – search ‘Betfair’ Android: go to Betfair.com and tap ‘Download Betfair’ icon (ensure ‘Unknown Sources’ is checked under the Settings Menu in applications)
Betfair Sports Betting (Fixed Odds) Apple: download from the App Store – search ‘Betfair’
5
Betfair Multiples
n Place Multiples online or on the go with Betfair Mobile
Group together a number of bets for a bigger odds Multiple
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Multiples or accumulators are a great way of winning more from smaller stakes. The simplest Multiple is a double, where you place a bet on two selections. Both selections have to come in for you to win. The more selections you add the bigger your odds will be, and you can place cross-sport Multiples as well. Multiples are a great way to create a bigger price bet from lots of odds-on favourites – which you’ll find in the first round of Wimbledon. By selecting a number of players you think are certain to go through you can create a decent odds-against wager. It’s now even easier to place Multiples with Betfair. Just make your singles selections as usual and then click the ‘Multiples’ tab on your betslip. All the different betting options are displayed and the odds calculated using Fixed Odds prices. You can also place Multiples quickly and easily on Betfair Mobile.
how to bet
6
Get involved!
n Join the Betfair Community and make even more informed bets Community.Betfair.com
Michael Vaughan @VaughanCricket
Home to the forums and over 150,000 members sharing tips and discussing the latest sporting events.
Will Greenwood @GreenwoodRugby
Facebook With over 100,000 members, Betfair’s Facebook community is the perfect place to share hot tips, get the latest offers and enter exclusive competitions.
Paul Nicholls @PFNicholls
Follow us: @Betfair – for all the latest news and info @BetfairRacing – for the very latest racing drama on the Betfair Exchange
@BetfairSports – a combination of news, analysis, exclusive competitions and free bets @BetfairHelpdesk – your direct line to the Helpdesk team
The Ambassadors Betfair’s team of sporting Ambassadors are on Twitter as well as Betting.Betfair to give you a unique view on all your favourite sports.
7
Help & Learning
n Got any questions or looking for some extra help? Head to Betfair’s Help & Learning site
Betting.Betfair.com Betfair has assembled some of the world’s finest tipsters and you can find their latest analysis and recommended bets at Betting.Betfair. Remember to check closer to and during events for the very latest news and stats to help you make even more informed bets.
Pick up new betting techniques and strategies
Hopefully you’ll have picked up lots of tips and tricks to use on the Betfair Exchange. If you want to learn more, the Help & Learning site should be your first port of call. Whether you’re just starting out on Betfair, want to improve your betting technique or discover new strategies, you’ll find something here. The Help & Learning site contains lots of video tutorials, which you can browse from the homepage – just click to play them. It also contains an extensive database of FAQs – just click on the FAQ tab to access them or find the most popular on the homepage. These are easily searchable and allow you to quickly access information on everything from general questions about your account to more complex betting strategies.
en.learning.betfair.com
New tutorial videos are added regularly 18+
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4.7
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3.0
The Open Championship Winner Sergio Garcia
34.0
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Premier League Top Scorer Robin van Persie
September
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Check your dates and don’t miss a bet on the Betfair Exchange… August
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s ’ r e m S um e ts best b
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5.2
US Open Winner Novak Djokovic
3.0
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British Grand Prix Winner Lewis Hamilton
8.4
Tour de France Winner Chris Froome
1.8
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World Matchplay darts Winner Michael van Gerwen
3.0
28 29 30
Superbowl XLVIII Winner New York Giants
29.0
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WIN BIGGER WITH BETFAIR At the start of each singles match at Wimbledon 2012, Betfair were better priced in the match odds market than Ladbrokes on 382 of the 508 players, better than William Hill on 428, and better than Bet365 on 452.
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382
LADBROKES
BETFAIR
80
428
WILLIAM HILL
56 BET365
BETFAIR
452 BETFAIR
Exchange prices only. 5% commision has been deducted from Betfair prices. Other charges may apply. See betchecker.betfair.com/tennis for verification.
FIND YOUR EDGE This summer