Sudan: Urging Burhan and Dagalo to shield their swords

By Isaac Asabor

At least one warehouse containing food and other humanitarian supplies was also looted. In many cases, vehicles were also taken. The overall impact will be significant, and humanitarian organizations will struggle to recommence programmes without crucial assets and supplies as they try to respond to the 15.8 million people in Sudan who are assessed to need humanitarian assistance.

There is no denying the fact that Sudan, a country that lies at the crossroads of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, bordering the Red Sea has for many years been enmeshed in the quagmire of violence that has culminated in killings, destruction, and mayhem afflicting the people even right from its nascent stage of becoming an independent African state.

To say in this context that the seemingly intractable streak of violence in Sudan grieves many people in the world today and shatters their hopes cannot be said to be misconceived. At different stages of arbitration, not a few go-betweens across the world, are disappointed that political and military leaders in Sudan are yet to learn from their past mistakes as it seems they belligerently throw the country into war without thinking about the consequences of the war on the people and entire resources in the country.

Given the collective belligerency of Sudanese leaders, it is obvious that achieving peace and stability for the people of South Sudan has been an almost a lifetime endeavor, even as it has become a question that has been of primary concern to both African countries and countries in other continents.

After all the efforts invested in the country for peace to reign, it is disheartening to observe over the years that thousands of Sudanese have been killed and unaccountable millions of people have fled their homes to escape the scourge of war.

For instance, women have been raped and even children have been recruited as soldiers. More painful is that this death toll and destruction has been the result of the comrades in arms of yesterday turning on each other to become the enemies of today. Should they continue on this course, the leaders of the warring parties will also bear primary responsibility for shattering efforts being made in the past to unite the people of Sudan in their long struggle for peace.

Despite great efforts by Africa and the international community to end this senseless war, the tragedy continues, at a massive cost. No monetary figure or economic projection can quantify the full human cost this lingering conflict has imposed on Sudan. There can be no price tag on the suffering of Sudan’s people from displacement, famine, and death. But it is possible to assess the direct economic costs by estimating the loss of productive assets and capital, the reduction in economic activity, and the domestic diversion from productive to non-productive activities. The costs are equally severe for neighboring countries and the international community at large, including, in this case, the likely decline in formal trade flows with Sudan’s neighbors, and the cost of providing humanitarian aid and UN peacekeepers for years to come.

Against the foregoing backdrop, it is expedient to opine that living with the destructions orchestrated by war in Sudan over the years is hard enough for Sudanese and their sympathizers to cope with, not to talk of a fresh war beginning on April 15, 2023.

As statistically reported by the African Development Bank Group in its 2022 African Economic Outlook (AEO), “Sudan’s GDP grew by an estimated 0.5% in 2021, recovering from a negative 3.6% in 2020.

Growth was supported by agriculture and mining on the supply side and private consumption and investment on the demand side. The recovery follows several years of economic contraction stemming from macroeconomic imbalances, structural deficiencies, political instability, and COVID-19. The central bank adopted an accommodative monetary policy in 2021 to boost credit growth and economic activity. Inflation more than doubled from 163.3% in 2020 to 358.9% in 2021, owing to currency depreciation and the removal of fuel subsidies. Banks dominate the financial sector, accounting for over 80% of total assets. Fiscal consolidation and improved public revenues, as COVID-19 restrictions were eased, reduced the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2021 from 5.6% in 2020.

“Sudan reached a “decision point” under the HIPC initiative in 2021, cutting its $56 billion external debt (163% of GDP) by 50%. The current account deficit increased to 10.0% of GDP in 2021 from 8.3% in 2020, with higher imports after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, offsetting the pickup in exports arising from improved external demand. The current account deficit was financed by portfolio investments and external borrowing. International reserves remained very low at 0.3 and 0.4 months of imports in 2021 and 2020. Sudan’s SDR allocation was equivalent to $857.7 million (262% of international reserves) in 2021, but it was suspended after the October 2021 military takeover. Poverty increased from 55.4% in 2020 to 55.9% in 2021 and unemployment remained high at 18% in 2020, partly due to COVID-19.”

Given the level of post-war recovery that Sudan has been recording, is it not foolhardy on part of Sudanese military generals