Premier League: Arsenal & Man City - who will win the title?

The Premier League title race is building up to a dramatic finale as we enter the final two months of the campaign.

Arsenal extended their lead at the top to eight points by thrashing Crystal Palace 4-1 on Sunday and have 10 games left as they look to end their 19-year wait for a title.

Manchester City have a game in hand but are also still in the FA Cup and Champions League, meaning they could potentially play seven more fixtures than Arsenal.

The two teams meet in what is likely to be a pivotal match at Etihad Stadium on 26 April.

So who are favourites for the title? And who has the more favourable run-in?

BBC Sport has crunched the numbers and analysed the fixture list to try and find out...

Snapshot of the top of the Premier League: 1st Arsenal with 69 points, 2nd Man City with 61 points

Who do Arsenal and City have left to play?

Let’s start with the fixtures.

Arsenal’s outlook is simple: they need 26 points from those 10 games to take the title, assuming City win all their remaining matches. Arsenal’s final match is at home to Wolves on 28 May.

Pep Guardiola’s City have 11 games remaining but also face a two-legged Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich and an FA Cup semifinal against Sheffield United at Wembley.

Should City win both, the FA Cup final takes place on 3 June and the Champions League semi-finals are scheduled for 9/10 and 16/17 May, before the final in Istanbul on 10 June.

Data company Nielsen’s Gracenote has worked out the percentage chance each side have of winning their remaining Premier League matches, according to its Euro Club Index formula.

Remaining fixtures

Arsenal Win chance

Man City Win chance

Leeds (h) 1 April 78%

Liverpool (h) 1 April 61%

Southampton (a) 8 April

71% Liverpool (a) 9 April 21%

Bayern Munich (h - Champions League QF) 11 April

Leicester (h) 15 April 85%

West Ham (a) 16 April 44%

Bayern Munich (a - Champions

League QF) 19 April

Southampton (h) 21 April

79%

Sheffield United (FA Cup semifinal) 22/23 April

Man City (a) 26 April 14%

Arsenal (h) 26 April 66%

Chelsea (h) 29 April 54% Fulham (a) 30 April

68%

Newcastle (a) 6 May 37%

Leeds (h) 6 May 88%

May

Potential CL semi-final 9/10

Brighton (h) 13 May 65%

Everton (a) 13 May 68%

May

Potential CL semi-final 16/17

Nottingham Forest (a) 20 May

58% Chelsea (h) 20 May

70%

Wolves (h) 28 May 75%

Brentford (a) 28 May 62%

West Ham (h) TBC 82%

Brighton (a) TBC 55%

Potential FA Cup final 3

June

Potential CL final 10

June

‘This is a genuine title race which is very difficult to call’

According to Gracenote’s simulations, Mike Arteta’s Arsenal have a 53% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy, while City’s chance of retaining their title is 47%.

“Despite Arsenal’s eight-point lead, it is still close to a 50/50 race because the Gunners have played a game more than Manchester City and still have to play away at three of the top six: City, Newcastle United and Liverpool,” said Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Gracenote.

“City’s toughest remaining trip in the Premier League is to Brighton next month.

“If we use probabilities from our Euro Club Index for each remaining match to calculate the expected points for Arsenal and Manchester City at the end of the season, Arsenal finish on 87 points and City on 86.

“If we partially subjectively allocate a win, draw or loss to each of the remaining fixtures led by the Euro Club Index probabilities, both teams end on 88 points. Either way, this is a genuine title race which is very difficult to call.

“The match between the two on April 26 will clearly be a key fixture in deciding the destination of the Premier League trophy.

“On the basis of an estimated 66% win chance for City according to the Euro Club Index, we have given City three points. If Arsenal avoid defeat, or even win, this will have a major impact on the title race.”

Gracenote’s top-two chart Arsenal have history on their side

Nervy Arsenal fans dreaming of a first title since 2003-04 may take some comfort from the history books.

According to Opta, only three teams in the Premier League have held an eight-point lead or more after 28 games and not won the title.

In 1997-98 Manchester United led Arsenal by nine points after 30 games but the Gunners, who had three games in hand, closed the gap to seal their first Premier League title. Five years later Manchester United gained revenge by chasing down Arsenal’s eight-point lead after 29 games.

But United were on the receiving end again in 2011-12 when City wiped out their eightpoint advantage before taking the trophy on the final day thanks to that goal from Sergio Aguero.

Looking back further, of the 12 teams to have more than 69 points after 30 games in the First Division or Premier League (converting to three points for a win) only one team have failed to win the titleLiverpool in 2018-19.

English top-flight teams to have 69+ points after 28 games

Season Team Points

Final position

Rangers vow To Defeat Rivers United as birthday gift to Secretary

Players of the ‘Flying Antelopes’, Rangers International F.C have promised the club’s Administrative Secretary, Barrister Ferdinand Ugwuarua, a grand birthday present with an outright win in their rescheduled match day 8, Group B, NPFL 2022/2023 Abridge season fixture against reigning champions, Rivers United F.C in Port Harcourt on Wednesday, March 15, 2023.

Captain of the side, Uche John, while reacting to an address by the young football administrator whose birthday is on Monday, March 13, before the team departed for the ‘Garden City’, Monday morning, wished the administrator a warm birthday celebration with a promise of returning with the maximum points at stake in the fixture.

“On behalf of the players, I wish you a wonderful birthday celebration laced with a bountiful blessing from God just as we promise to present you with a grand birthday present after our game in Port Harcourt on Wednesday. Like we did last year in Uyo, it shall happen in PortHarcourt against Rivers United. It shall be a double celebration after the match,” stated the hard-as-anail defender.

Earlier, while addressing the match day squad before they departed the Coal City for PortHarcourt, Monday, Barrister Ugwuarua charged the players to go all out and get the needed result that would send a message to other contenders in the league that Rangers was back to challenge for its proper position on the log.

“I challenge you to go to PortHarcourt and show the real stuff that you are made of. They are the champions but we have what it takes to reclaim our position in the league of club football in the country. It will be a perfect birthday present for me just as you did at my last celebration in Uyo.”

Recall that the league organizers, I.M.C had rescheduled this fixture for Wednesday, March 15, 2023, inside Adokieye Amiesiamaka Stadium, PortHarcourt with kickoff fixed for 16.00 hours due to Rivers United’s participation in the CAF Confederation Cup, 2023.