Kaduna: The tricky road to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House

By Femi Oyelola, Kaduna

Kaduna State electorate will march out in their millions next Saturday to elect the next occupant of the Sir Kashim Ibrahim House, the seat of power in the state.

As it stands, three of the contestants are leading in this race that has become the keenest electoral contest in the history of the state. The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Senator Uba Sani; the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Hon Isa Ashiru Kudan; and that of the Labour Party (LP), Hon Jonathan Asake, are all making waves in the race that no soothsayer can comfortably predict which side the coin would fall.

However, a number of factors would determine who finally emerges as the next governor of the state otherwise known as the ‘Center of Learning’.

Analysts have listed those factors to include the influence of religion, the age-long north-soutth dichotomy and the festering insecurity that has made citizens vulnerable to constant attacks by bandits and other criminal elements especially in the past four years.

The first major factor visible from investigation across the state is that of religion. There is no gainsaying that religion will play a crucial role in determining who would be the next first citizen of Kaduna state.

The ruling party represented by distinguished Senator Uba Sani, as its gubernatorial candidate, and the sitting deputy governor, Dr Hadiza Balarabe, as his running mate has brought up what is now being referred to as the Muslim-Muslim ticket because both of them share the same faith.

The Muslim-Muslim ticket to some residents is a two-edged sword in this race, while it enjoys the sympathy of others. Some have, however, expressed outright dismay as they believe that such ticket does not represent the two major religions in the state. So, after the presidential election there has been an intensive campaign for and against this ticket. This has led to most Churches especially in the Central and the Southern senatorial zone of the state to openly endorse the the candidature of the PDP’s Hon Isa Ashiru on the pulpit as their preferred candidate because of his running mate, Dr. John Ayuba, a Christian from the southern part of the state.

In a twist, however, the umbrella body of Christians in the state, Christian Association of Nigeria, (CAN) has openly disassociated itself from such endorsement, saying no religious leader should force any follower to vote for any candidate.

The CAN Chairman in the state, Reverend John Hayab, during a recent engagement at the Correspondents Chapel of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), Kaduna State Council, said the election is a matter of choice for voters who should not be teleguided under the guise of religion.

Hayab who spoke alongside JNI chairman, said people should vote according to their conscience and the pulpit should be a place of preaching the word of God and not endorsement of candidates.

Speaking in the same vein, Professor Marcus Tella, said he has tried as much as possible to be neutral in this argument of the same faith ticket because the government in Kaduna is by the constitution and not by Quran or Bible.

He however said it is natural for people to protect their faith and no matter what anybody said religion will play a key factor in the 2023 Governorship election in the state.

The second major factor that will determine the next governor of Kaduna State, according to analysts, is the north - south dichotomy because the 2023 election would be skewed along geographical and demographic, considerations.

The Southern senatorial zone and some parts of the Central senatorial zone are dominated by Christians who are also natives of the area. They’ve been showing their sympathy to the PDP since 1999 and one is not expecting anything different from them this time around. But it feared that the emergence of Hon Jonathan Asake of the Labour Party (LP) may threaten the block votes usually harvested by PDP from the zone.

Asake, a former member of the Federal House of Representatives, and immediate past President of the Southern Kaduna Peoples’ Union, (SOKAPU), and one of the key factors of the Labour Party Tsunami that played out I’m the state during the presidential/ National Assembly elections is a grassroots politician. The inroads of LP in the state has been ascribed to his towering political influence.

He is believed to be loved by survivors and victims of the insecurity that has bedevil the zone. He is said to have stood by them during their times of need and some believed this is a time to reward him. Leave it or take it, his emergence will affect the voting pattern in the state, analysts have posited.

The order factor that will affect the southern zone is that of the deputy governor. Although a Muslim, she is a native of the Sanga Local Government Area of the state; and during the recent Presidential/NASS elections, she delivered her LGA, a feat not witness before in the state.

The voter polarization is not limited to the South and Central Senatorial zones, the Northern senatorial zone would face the greatest battle in that sphere because some of the PDP bigwigs are from that zone. Three of the contestants also come from the zone--Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi, of New Nigeria Peoples Party, (NNPP); and Isa Hayyatudeen, of the Peoples’ Redemption Party, (PRP) and Hon. Ashiru of PDP. So, all hands are crossed until the 18th March 2023 when voters will turn the crystal ball.

However, Senator Uba Sani, who’s from the Central zone and a current Senator in the 9th Senate is said to be greatly loved within his constituency where lots of impactful projects are said to have been executed by him. Accordingly, he may be the man to beat next Saturday.

Yet, another factor that will determine whether it’s Uba Sani, Isa Ashiru Kudan, or Hon Jonathan Asake, that will occupy the Sir Kashim Ibrahim House is their blueprints in tackling insecurity bedeviling the state. It’s on record that Kaduna has become the most terrorized state in Nigeria if the frequency of killings and kidnappings perpetuated by bandits is anything to go by.

During the campaign periods, all the top contestants presented their blueprints on how to tackle the increasing insecurity in the state. And There’s no doubt that the singular existential issue will naturally influence votes next Saturday especially among the informed and sophisticated voters.