OPINION The year long Russia-Ukraine military conflict

By Lawa Sale Maida

February 24 marked a year since the beginning of the needless military conflict in the Eastern Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

The genesis of the conflict was when in November 2013, a planned association treaty between the EU and Ukraine was scuttled just days before it was signed. The accord would have integrated Ukraine into EU politically and economically but was stopped by the then Russia backed president Victor Yanukovich. As a result, western backed protests erupted in Ukraine major cities with Maidan square in Kiev being the epicentre. After all efforts to address the issue failed, president Victor Yanukovich was forced to relinquish power on February 24 and fled the country.

Yanukovich, who hail from Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, escaped into exile to Russia when he was overwhelmed by the pustch. His ouster also heralded a counter-revolutionary protests in Southern and Eastern Ukraine where Russian speaking Ukrainians are based.

Since then, there was no love lost between Russia and it’s western partners over Ukraine. U.S and it’s European/NATO allies on the other hand capitalised on the regime change to launch it’s advancement project towards the Eastern planks down to the Russia’s backyard in Ukraine with the aim of integrating Ukraine into EU and NATO in near future. Already, countries that belonged to the former Communist block such as Poland, Croatia, Albania, Macedonia and the Baltic states are full members of NATO.

As a result of this deliberate advancement to the East, Russia severally warned that any attempt to breach it’s security interests by co-opting Ukraine into the military alliance will be met with appropriate response. Ukraine shares a lengthy border with Russia and has majority ethnic Russians on it’s territory.

In the beginning of the current military conflict before Russia deployed it’s troops on Ukrainian soil, there have been diplomatic efforts by president Macron of France, president Erdoğan of Tùrkiye, the UN and many other world leaders in an effort to avoid what is now a catastrophe but to no avail; this is largely because some interested parties in the conflict kept fuelling the crisis until when it got to the current level of uncertainties.

The one year military conflict which many see as proxy war has so far claimed thousands of lives, destruction of property and infrastructure from both sides. It was estimated that about 20% of Ukrainians are taking refuge outside the country, 50% are displaced internally and 30% stay put to endure the war.

Over the last one year, few diplomatic efforts were made to bring an end to the conflict but for the unflinching military, defence, intelligence, logistics and the humanitarian support Ukraine is getting from the US, UK, EU, NATO and allies, the war is still raging and it seems it will not end in the short term. So far it was estimated that about $150 billion was channeled to Ukraine to execute the war.

On the other hand, Russia as a solo fighter of it’s own battle has in addition to the battle and loss of troops, the US and it’s European allies had earlier slammed the Putin administration with numerous sanctions in an attempt to slash it’s energy income and cripple it’s economy so that it will be difficult for Putin to execute the war; that aim however, has not been achieved according to president Putin in his state of the nation speech earlier in the week.

The impact of this war is also being felt around the globe that is recovering from the effect of COVID-19. Russia being the largest supplier of gas to European and Asian countries was unable to trade in the commodity due to the western sanctions and Ukraine being the largest producer of wheat, sunflower oil and maize also had its supply chain slowed down by the war. The world over became energy food insufficient thereby raising the cost of almost all the necessities for the commoners.

Though there is glimmer of hope in bringing the war to an end as China indicated interest in mediating between the warring factions. Wang Yi, a member of the Communist Party of China Politburo and Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs has visited Putin in Moscow eventhough it was sketchy what they discussed concerning the earlier pronouncement by the Chinese to be peace makers in Ukrainian conflict.

In conclusion and in my opinion, having seen the enormous resources and logistics channeled to Ukraine in the last one year, this war is not between Russia and Ukraine but between Russia and U.S/NATO. It is unfortunate that as a result of this dangerous conflict that has no end in sight, women, elderly and children are the ones at the receiving end. Peace!

Maida, is an Abuja based Global Affairs Analyst.

Nigerians and 2023 elections: Prioritizing public accountability for social development

By Sunday Timothy Taiwo

These cited narratives are fractions of the many gross public sector misconducts which have not only created a big trust gap between citizens and government officials but gravely hinders socioeconomic development in the country.

Critical, but less discussed in the lead up to the 2023 Elections is the state of accountability in the Nigeria public sector. In a democracy, elections are pivotal to public administration, development and democratic sustainability being the sole legal instrument that allows for citizens to decide and elect their representatives at the helm of affairs where governance and policy-making mechanisms are developed over time.

Howbeit, it’s no gainsaying that no critical development effort can succeed without a government that is responsive and accountable to its citizens. Being accountable is a burden that is placed on the public sector when it accepts responsibility for exercising powers on behalf of the public; as the people entrust in a candidate their collective mandate by voting into power, it is both constitutionally and morally expected of such a candidate to work effectively towards fulfilling his/her end of the social contract.

In Nigeria, public accountability is a dwindling phenomenon, and amidst nations of the world, the country has attained a high level of public sector corruption and gross mismanagement of public finance which has impacted greatly on our corporate development from local, state, to national level.

Nigeria, having dropped from 26 in 2019, to 25 in 2020, and 24 in 2021 assessment, the country again stood at 24 of 100 in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Transparency International (TI). Through the CPI, TI measures the level of public sector corruption in the systems of 180 countries around the world and rank accordingly. Ranked 150 of 180 with CPI score of 24 attests to the fact that despite the current administration’s commitment to battle corrupt practices, corruption in Nigeria’s public sector has grossly worsened in the last 4 years even.

Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI)’s analysis of the 2019 audit report of the federation revealed that the sum of N455.14bn was not accounted for by 70 MDAs of the federal government, being 20.69% of the N2.2tn total funds released in 2019 fiscal year. Similarly, its Subnational Audit Efficacy Index 2021 which assessed accountability levels in the management of public funds across the 36 states in Nigeria revealed that only 11 out of the 36 states of the federation assessed, conducted either performance or compliance audit on public expenditure in 2020. This translates to the fact that 25 Offices of State AuditorsGeneral did not adhere to procurement and financial regulations by government MDAs which limits their state’s ability to achieve value for money on programs and projects implemented in the year 2020.

Sunday Timothy Taiwo is a Public Policy Analyst.