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No. 054 / 29th September 2014 / www.poland-today.pl / magazine, conferences, portal, newsletter
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING Off-road vehicle maker Polaris launches production in Opole page 2 Concrete paver giant Libet acquires its 15th factory in Poland page 3 BANKING & FINANCE Warsaw Stock Exchange puts Vienna merger plans on hold page 3
Zomato seeks to hire more than 60 staff in Poland over the coming 12 months.
Image: Zomato
Zomato acquires Poland's top foodie site
Having completed similar acquisitions in Slovakia and the Czech Republic in recent weeks, Indian Zomato has taken over Poland's most popular restaurant discovery site Gastronauci.pl. BR+ talks to Pramod Rao, Director of International Operations at Zomato, about their plans for the business. page 7
Trimetis to create 250 IT jobs in Lublin
Austrian IT consulting & outsourcing and company Trimetis is setting up its first Polish unit in Lublin. "We want to have 250 staff in Lublin by the end of 2017," Wolfgang Weber, Board Member at Trimetis tells BR+. page 6
Alior Bank prepares equity boost to finance Meritum Bank acquisition page 4 ENERGY & RESOURCES Siemens begins construction of EUR 160m heat & power unit in Gorzów page 5 PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Office investments in regional cities to reach record level this year page 5
tel. +48 881 650 600
RETAIL Upscale interior goods chain Almi Decor goes bankrupt page 8 Retail sales increase 1.7% y/y in August page 9 RETAIL PROPERTIES Multi Corporation gets building permit for huge mixeduse project in Gdańsk city centre page 9 EMPLOYMENT Report: Poland still needs to make labour market more flexible page 10 OPINION Team sports have a winning formula for Poland page 11 KEY FIGURES Up-to-date macroeconomic figures, currency & stock market data and lots of other hard-to-find info pages 12-14
CEE M&A AND PRIVATE EQUITY FORUM 2014 CROSS-BORDER OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN EASTERN EUROPE 2 OCTOBER 2014 THE WESTIN, WARSAW Mergermarket’s Central & Eastern European M&A Forum is taking place this Thursday. Don’t miss out – make sure you join us to hear from expert speakers who will share their thoughts on the key deal trends likely to be seen in the CEE region over the next year.
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Confirmed speakers include: • Roland Haidner, Director of M&A, Telekom Austria
• Artur Tomala, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
• Bohdan Malaniuk, Deputy Head of M&A, CEZ
• Alexander Merwart, Director, Leveraged Finance, Commerzbank
• Przemysław Schmidt, Board Member, Czerwona Torebka SA
• Dominique Le Maire, Managing Director, Unicredit
• Krysztof Krawczyk, Managing Partner, Innova Capital
• Michal Surowski, Head DCM Poland, Societe Generale CIB
• Robert Manz, Managing Partner, Enterprise Investors
• John-Paul Warszewski, Managing Director, Nomura International plc
• Piotr Nocen, Managing Partner, Resource Partners
• Ivan Meloun, Head of Acquisition & Leveraged Finance, CSOB
• Bart Dujczynksi, Investment Director, Kulczyk Investments
• Tomasz Kwiecien, Managing Director, Mezzanine Management
• Tomasz Blicharski, Associate Director, Mid Europa Partners
• Maciej Dyjas, CEO, Eastbridge Group
• Till Burges, Principal, HarbourVest
• Dominika Zbychorska, Director of M&A, PZU
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Media partners:
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Places are limited - book your place today at events.mergermarket.com/cee-poland2014 Please use the registration code PT14 when booking
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weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 2
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING
OffOff-road vehicle maker Polaris launches production in Opole
3,981 sq.m. The building features include a 2,500 meter product test track and energy saving paint systems. This facility is built on nearly 30 acres, within the Wałbrzych Special Economic Zone. According to earlier announcements, the manufacturer's first European factory for off-road vehicles will be making 25,000 quads and small all-terrain vehicles per year, to be delivered to Europe, Middle East and Russia.
The NYSE-listed off-road vehicle (ORV) maker Polaris has launched production at its first manufacturing facility outside of North America, located in the south-western Polish city of Opole. The 33,000 sq.m built-to-suit building was developed by Panattoni and together with interior fit-out and installation of production lines the whole project was completed in little more than a year. The plant will produce approximately 35 different ORV vehicle models in 2015 and ship them to six subsidiaries and over thirty distributors in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region. Shipments to customers should begin in Q1 2015, Polaris said. Opole will also house research and design for the Europe, Middle East and Africa markets allowing vehicles to be tailored to local needs. Employee training has already begun at the Opole facility which will employ 300 people in 2015. "I can confirm that at full capacity, assuming that our market projections prove correct, we expect to have over 500 employees in Opole," Bogusław Dawiec, Director of Operations at Polaris Poland told Poland Today back in April. "We are starting to seek out local suppliers and as the production volume increases we intend to gradually expand our local supplier base." Developed at the cost of PLN 100m (excluding machinery), the Polaris plant is comprised of a 25,600 sq.m production hall, a 3,400 sq.m warehouse, as well as offices and staff facilities with a total floor area of
Panattoni built the factory building for Polaris in little more than half a year. In the future, the US manufacturer plans to add a logistics centre and dealerImage: Panattoni ship at the site.
"With a stated goal of a third of our total company sales outside North America, the Opole facility is a cornerstone for our international growth plans, as it provides both a timely capacity increase and a localized manufacturing presence that allows us to provide the best possible experience for our customers across Europe, the Middle East and Africa," said Scott Wine, Polaris Chairman and CEO, at the grand opening at the plant last week. Allowing Polaris to manufacture products locally for the EMEA region, the Opole facility will improve the
supply chain and help the company keep up with strong demand for its wide range of products. "With our engineering and manufacturing assets in Poland, we will be able to develop and manufacture products specifically for this market. We will reduce the order lead time for our customers and will be able to provide better customer service. We also have opportunities to source more of our component parts locally from suppliers within the region. This will be a big benefit to this entire region," said Suresh Krishna, Vice President, Europe, Middle East and Africa. The NYSE-listed Polaris is a major player in the powersports industry with annual 2013 sales of USD 3.8bn (+18% y/y) and net income of USD 381m (+22% y/y). The company designs, engineers, manufactures and markets off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and its trademark Ranger and RZR sideby-side vehicles (all three products lines will be made in Opole) as well as snowmobiles, motorcycles and onroad electric/hybrid powered vehicles. Polaris is among the global sales leaders for both snowmobiles and off-road vehicles but it has also established a presence in the heavyweight cruiser and touring motorcycle market with the Victory and Indian brands. With close to 5,000 employees worldwide, Polaris seeks aims to become a "highly profitable, USD 5+ bn global enterprise," according to its strategy. In 2010 Europe's ATV sales had been estimated at some EUR 2bn. There are no official figures on the number of quads in Poland, but some industry representatives speak of 80-100,000 units. These off-road vehicles (mainly inexpensive Chinese imports) used to be popular a couple of years ago, but a number of wellpublicized accidents and the resulting tightening of regulations, accompanied by economic downturn, brought that boom to a halt.
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 3
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING
Concrete paver giant Libet acquires its 15th factory in Poland Warsaw-listed Libet, the country's largest producer of concrete pavers, has entered an agreement to acquire a production plant in Toruń. The acquisition, which is expected to be finalized by October 20, will give the company access to three large urban markets of Toruń, Bydgoszcz, and Włocławek.
In addition to the Toruń takeover, which brings the total number of Libet production plants in Poland up to 15, the company is hoping to acquire 2-3 additional factories as well as gravel quarries in Poland over the next five years. Libet is the second largest producer of concrete pavers in Poland with a 22% market share in the total market, and a 34% share in the premium segment. Although concrete pavers are Libet's main product, the Company produces also kerbs, flagstones etc. Its consolidated turnover totalled PLN 220m last year and net earnings topped PLN 6.1m.
"This acquisition is in line with our strategy that focuses on making Libet products available in every corner of the country. This acquisition will not only give Libet direct access to Toruń, Bydgoszcz, Włocławek and the surrounding markets, but also enable us to significantly shorten the distance to clients who have so far been served by our factories in Pomerania, Warsaw, and Łódź, says Libet CEO Thomas Lehmann. The Toruń unit was launched only a few years ago with the support of EU funding. It includes a single, modern production line. "It's a modern plant with a substantial production potential. We expect this acquisition to boost our total annual revenues by some 8-10% and positively impact our operating margin due to reduction in logistics costs. Last but not least, it opens up a large new market for our "premium" range," Lehmann says. Libet's strategic objective is for the high-margin "premium" products to represent approximately a half of its revenues by the end of 2015. Since the beginning of this year the company has introduced more than 50 new products.
BANKING & FINANCE
Warsaw Stock Exchange puts Vienna merger plans on hold The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) has suspended plans for a merger with its regional competitor, the Vienna-based CEE Stock Exchange Group (CEESEG), which unites the Vienna, Budapest, Ljubljana and Prague bourses. Talks over a potential alliance have been going on since April 2013, with neither party reporting any progress to-date. "The WSE management board has decided to focus on the Polish market and exploiting its potential. The bourse isn't taking into consideration a capital alliance with CEESEG," Warsaw exchange chief executive Pawel Tamborski said last week. "Our goal is to grow organically and strengthening the international position of the bourse," Tamborski added.
Libet's current strategy focuses on "premium" products, which are essentially concrete pavers that imiImage: Libet tate stone.
The majority shareholder in Libet (via a Luxembourgbased SPV) is private equity fund Innova Capital, which acquired a 100% stake in the company, together with Libet's management, in 2010. Since the acquisition, Libet has improved its financial performance, expanded its product offer, and increased its presence in the North of Poland through several acquisitions.
The announcement has come as a bit of a surprise, as upon Tamborski's appointment as WSE's boss earlier this year, Treasury Minister Włodzimerz Karpiński said that one of the new CEO's priorities would be to lead the process of a potential merger with Vienna. Karpiński referred to his former deputy as a man who "who knows the Vienna merger project well" and one, who would make a "trustworthy partner in negotiations for the Austrians." Despite the discouraging news from Poland, CEESEG representatives said last week a tie-up with Warsaw "remains one of many options for the Vienna Exchange." The Vienna bourse had warmed up to the tieup concept after losing out to Warsaw in the race for regional top spot. Other, smaller regional exchanges
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 4
that it operates, in Prague, Budapest and Ljubljana, have been registering only modest growth. Warsaw's exchange has grown fast over the past few years, riding a wave of Polish economic growth and overtaking Vienna to become the biggest exchange in central Europe.
September 24. The number of companies doubled in the last decade, with 81 new listings in 2007 and 23 last year. The main shareholder in the exchange is the Polish Treasury, which holds 35% of its shares and a voting majority. The bourse was privatized in 2010 through an IPO.
WSE capitalization in PLNm, year-end*
Since 15 April 2013 the WSE has been running NYSE Euronext's Universal Trading Platform, which allows Warsaw to accept high-frequency orders but also binds it through a technological partnership with the global giant. Earlier this year the WSE has acquired 30% stock in the UK-based multilateral trading facility Aquis Exchange Ltd, which launched at the end of November 2013, enabling trading in top British, French and Dutch securities.
700 600 500 400 300 200
BANKING & FINANCE
100 0 1998
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
2010
2012 **2014
Source: WSE *) domestic stocks **) as of September 24, 2014
The Polish treasury ministry, which owns a majority stake in the Warsaw exchange, said in a statement it expects the bourse to present an updated strategy aimed at increasing market liquidity. The bourse needs to find new sources of growth as IPOs have slowed and a Polish pension reform curbed the ability of local pension funds, major players on the exchange, to invest in stocks. According to the ministry, the WSE may return to consolidation talks with foreign partners in a couple of years. Created in 1991 to facilitate privatization, WSE lists 463 companies on its main market, including PKO BP, the largest Polish bank, and PZU, the country's biggest insurer, with a combined value of about PLN 930bn (including PLN 631bn worth of domestic stocks) as of
Alior Bank prepares equity boost to finance Meritum Bank acquisition Alior Bank hopes to sell as many as 2.4m new shares, representing nearly 3.3% in its increased capital, to fund the purchase of its small local rival Meritum Bank ICB SA, the Warsaw-listed lender said in a regulatory statement last week. Alior also plans to sell subordinated bonds. Alior confirmed it had engaged in official negotiations with Meritum's owners, private equity fund Innova Capital, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and WCP COOPERATIEF U.A. Based on Alior's current share price, the equity boost may reach PLN 200m. Alior plans to
finalize talks and sign agreement before the shareholders’ vote on the share sale planned for Oct. 22, it said. Founded shortly after the 2008 collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers by Italian group Carlo Tassara, controlled by Franco-Polish billionaire Romain Zalewski, who injected some EUR 450m into the Polish start-up, in less than four years Alior created Poland's third largest branch network (849 outlets as of end of June) and started generating profits. Since its PLN 2.1bn IPO in December 2012, Alior Bank has been seeking various ways to add clients, including cooperation with the T-Mobile's Polish unit on providing banking services to the phone operator’s users and the purchase of a majority stake in an asset management company last year. Meritum’s assets of PLN 3.15bn represent 10%of Alior’s balance sheet, based on the banks’ first-half earnings statements. The Meritum takeover is to help Alior expand in the consumer banking business, the bank said in the statement. Meritum’s cooperation with "one the leading retailers in Poland" was an important factor in the deal, it added. Meritum cooperates with Tesco Plc’s Polish unit. Some of Meritum shareholders may buy Alior’s new shares. Alior’s controlling investor Carlo Tassara SpA, which is seeking to sell its stake in the bank and has until June 2016 to complete the disposal, will keep its 25% holding after the share sale, Alior said. In the first half of 2014 Alior Bank’s consolidated net profit exceeded PLN 151.6m (+18% y/y), while its net operating income totalled PLN 883.6m (+22y/y), including PLN 575m from interest income and PLN 167m from fees and commissions. As at the end of June 2014, a total value of loans granted by Alior Bank to customers equalled PLN 21.9bn, while the value of de-
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 5
posits collected amounted to PLN 21.4bn. The figures were higher than those recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year, by 26% and 12% respectively. These results bolstered the bank’s share in the credit market to reach 2.6% and in the deposit market the figure came to 2.5%. Alior Bank maintains its strategic objective to acquire a 4% share in the Polish banking market by 2016. As of end of June Alior had 2.33m customers (including more than 2.2m retail and 120,000 corporate), up from 1.7m a year earlier. In Q2 alone the bank attracted 95,000 new retail clients. The bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) rose to total 13.1% as at the end of the reporting period, while the capital Tier 1 ratio has reached the level of 11.5%.
Within the scope of turnkey construction, Siemens will deliver two SGT-800 gas turbines, one SST-400 steam turbine, three 11 kilovolt (kV) generators and two heat recovery steam generators. In addition, Siemens was awarded a long-term 12 years maintenance agreement for the gas turbines. What's interesting about the Gorzów plant, is that it will be fired with nitrogen-rich, local natural gas from gas reserves in western Poland. This type of gas has a lower calorific value than conventional natural gas. "We chose the Siemens solution because their plant offers a very high efficiency, so that it can generate electricity at a very affordable cost," said Jacek Kaczorowski, CEO of PGE GiEK. "The district heating makes the plant even more economical. Furthermore, we can use our local natural gas reserves to fire the turbines."
ENERGY & RESOURCES
Siemens begins construction of EUR 160m heat & power unit in Gorzów A Siemens-led consortium has broken ground on a new combined heat & power plant in the Polish city of Gorzów Wielkopolski. Last week, the investor, PGE GiEK, a subsidiary of Poland's top utility PGE, held a cornerstone laying ceremony at the site of the project which is to be commissioned in early 2016. The Gorzów plant will have an electric capacity of 138 megawatts (MW) and a thermal capacity of 90 MW. Thanks to combined heat and power, the plant's fuel efficiency rating will be 84%. The order value for Siemens, including a long-term service agreement for the main components, is about PLN 686m (EUR 160m).
to extract 100m sq.m of gas and 300,000 tons of crude oil per annum. The Gorzów power plant will replace a currently used coal-fired block at the same location. The combined cycle power plant with district heat extraction will be able to generate electricity in a much more efficient and environmentally friendly manner. Compared to the old coal-fired power plant, the new plant will produce 95% less sulphur dioxide emissions, more than 30% less nitrogen dioxide emissions and more than 95% less particulate emissions.
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Office investments in regional cities to reach record level this year As valuations in Warsaw are becoming too high, and regional markets are turning mature, office buildings in Poland's other key cities are attracting a growing number of property investors. According to property consultancy JLL, this year's total office investment volume outside Warsaw is likely to hit a record EUR 400m, up from EUR 156m in 2013 and the previous record of EUR 346m achieved in pre-crisis 2006.
The new heat & power plant in Gorzów will have an Image: Siemens efficiency rating of 84%.
The gas (281m cb.m per annum) will be supplied by Polish gas giant PGNiG under a 20-year agreement estimated at PLN 3bn. By relying on fuel extracted in direct vicinity of the Gorzów plant, the latter can count on substantial savings. The sources of gas will include the recently Lubiatów oil and gas drill that PGNiG launched last year at the cost of PLN 1.7bn, expecting
"Moreover, investor activity is going to continue in Q1 2015, with significant transactions expected in Wrocław or Tri-City”, says Tomasz Puch, Head of Office and Industrial Capital Markets, JLL. In 1H, an estimated EUR 750m worth of properties changed hands in Poland, including EUR 220m outside of Warsaw. The largest office transaction in the regional cities in H1 was the sale of office properties from the portfolio of Arka BZ WBK Property Mar-
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 6
ket Fund, including Quattro Forum in Wrocław, Winogrady Business Center in Poznań, Red Tower in Łódź and Alfa Plaza in Tri-City to Octava FIZAN. The second largest transaction this year (and the largest single transaction) was the sale of Lubicz Office Centre by Peakside to Griffin Group. Another very significant deal was Skanska's sale of Wrocław office building Green Day to GLL.
side Warsaw is also facilitated by the changing strategies of several local developers. These companies are more open to new solutions, e.g. joint ventures or sharing a part of the developer’s profit. Some owners are ready to renegotiate and extend lease agreements in order to make their projects more attractive and valuable," he adds.
According to JLL stats, the largest office transaction in the last 10 years outside Warsaw was the EUR 100m sale of the Bema Plaza project in Wrocław by Ghelamco to Deka Immobilien in 2008. The consultancy is hinting that considering the deals currently in the pipeline Ghelamco's record is likely to be broken this year. August saw another huge deal involving Ghelamco, which sold three buildings (T-Mobile Office Park and Łopuszańska Business Park in Warsaw and Katowice Business Point in Katowice) for EUR 192m to Starwood Capital.
SERVICES & BPO
"Warsaw is still attracting the majority of investors, and the specific character and the size of this market means that most spectacular transactions take place there. However, since last year we have seen growing interest from investors in major agglomerations outside the capital city, as shown in this year’s transactions in Kraków, Wrocław, Tri-City, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice. This activity has been triggered by several factors. It stems from the fact that Warsaw has become increasingly expensive, and after a number of flagship transactions, few products have remained on sale. Furthermore, this interest is encouraged by the growing maturity of office markets outside the capital city which, in turn, engenders trust from investors," says Tomasz Puch. "When Warsaw is taken out of the equation, the most active markets are Wrocław and Kraków. Investors are generally on the lookout for prime properties. The growing volume of office investment transactions out-
Austrian IT firm Trimetis to employ 250 at new Lublin center center Austrian IT consulting & outsourcing and company Trimetis is setting up its first Polish unit in Lublin with plans for up to 250 placements over the coming years. The centre's focus will be software development, software testing and quality assurance as well as application (lifecycle) management. "We want to reach the 250 headcount by the end of 2017," Wolfgang Weber, Management Board Member at Trimetis tells Poland Today. "We believe that we can get very qualified and talented people in Lublin, a city that offers good education level, good universities, and infrastructure. Lublin's other pull factors include its considerable size, taken together with the surrounding area, strong support from local authorities and the fact that the local market is not as overheated as Tier1 cities such as Warsaw, Krakow, etc.." Established in 2012 by a group of seasoned executives with long-term experience in business consultancies, Trimetis offers a range of IT services, including software development, testing, and quality assurance. Its clients include BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Raiffeisen Bank, Postbank, Unicredit, Daimler, SAP or E&Y. Al-
though most of its clients at the moment originate from the DACH region (Germany, Asutria, Switzerland), Trimetis is hoping to win contracts also in Poland. "We do consulting, technology services and (expert) sourcing. Our business model is to serve mainly Central European clients, but out of our Hub in Lublin we want to deliver particularly IT services. In practice, the latter will provide our CE-clients with software development and quality assurance services in terms of providing qualified staff but also in delivering projects independently," explains Mr. Weber. The company is currently seeking Java developers with good English and in mid-term it will recruit also .NET experts as well as software testers, test managers, and SAP specialists. It is hoping to establish cooperation with Lublin universities. German language skills are welcome, but not esential. The city of Lublin has recently intensified its promotional efforts, focusing on the business services industry, and the strategy is beginning to pay off. In recent months it attracted a large project from US contact centre company Convergys as well as British IT services firm Mobica. Mobica has set up its fifth Polish unit in Lublin, planning to recruit some 100 software testers and programmers for two expert teams: mobile technologies and quality assurance. Mobica's existing Polish offices in Warsaw, Łódź, Bydgoszcz and Szczecin, employ 600 programmers, who work on projects for global clients. US customer management company Convergys Corporation has launched a contact centre in Lublin, expecting to create approximately 250 new jobs by the end of the year. Similar to the Trimetis centre, Con-
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 7
vergys has chosen Lublin's Nord Office Park as location for its offices. According to Mariusz Sagan, head of Lublin's strategy and investor support centre, its existing BPO/SSC/ITO centres are providing employment for an estimated 7,000 Lublin residents. Some 2,000 of those jobs have been created since 2010.
ONLINE BUSINESS
Indian online restaurant restaurant listings platform Zomato acquires Polish peer What do Poles do when they want to check out a restaurant they'd never been to before booking a table? The internet literate ones browse Gastronauci.pl, a restaurant review site created by Ola Lazar in 2007. Last week her business became part of Indian-owned online and mobile restaurant and discovery service Zomato, which acquired Gastronauci for an undisclosed amount. Following a number of acquisitions in recent weeks, Zomato is present in 16 countries. "We have had great success in building a strong and engaging user base for Gastronauci in Poland since 2007. This is an exciting new chapter for us and we look forward to working with Zomato and use their technology and product expertise to bring a new enhanced experience for both consumers and merchants," said Gastronauci founder and CEO, Ola Lazar, who will focus on developing her table booking service Stoliczku.
The transaction is to reach completion by early November, after which the Gastronauci team will be working closely with Zomato on building and rolling out an integrated product. Gastronauci's website and mobile app helps users in Poland look for places to dine out or order in from a database of over 26,000 restaurants across the country. "Ola and the Gastronauci team have built an excellent product that has a significant mind share in Poland. We are very happy to welcome Gastronauci into the Zomato family. Both Zomato and Gastronauci are committed towards building the best platform possible to connect users and the restaurant industry. We are excited to work on building an integrated product combining our technology with Gastronauci's exhaustive reach in Poland," said Deepinder Goyal, founder and CEO of Zomato. The Indian platform has been aggressively expanding its global footprint over the past months, while also strengthening its presence in existing markets. In July, the Delhi-based startup said it wanted to reach 22 international markets in 24 months. Zomato's international expansion is being financed with the USD 37m funding Zomato received from Sequoia Capital and InfoEdge in October 2013, taking its valuation to USD 161m. Its recent acquisitions include MenuMania, a top player in New Zealand, that became part of Zomato in July 2014. In August 2014, Zomato acquired Lunchtime.cz and Obedovat.sk, the Czech Republic's and Slovakia's restaurant guides respectively, for a combined amount of USD 3.25m. This may give one a rough benchmark as regards the possible value of the Gastronauci deal, which concerns a market that is much larger than these two countries combined. With key players in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in its portfolio, Zomato has become an undisputed
leader in Central and Eastern Europe's restaurant discovery space. Zomato, founded in New Delhi in 2008, is a comprehensive online restaurant and nightlife guide, listing over 262,000 restaurants across India, UAE, UK, the Philippines, South Africa, New Zealand, Brazil, Portugal, Chile, Indonesia, Turkey, Qatar, and Sri Lanka. Info Edge (India) Ltd and Sequoia Capital have invested a total of USD 53.5m into the business to-date. Zomato has forayed into print as well, launching the Citibank Zomato Restaurant Guide in 2012, and The Connoisseur's Guide to Eating Out in 2013. It employs more than 800 staff globally.
Poland Today talks to: Pramod Rao, Director, International Operations at Zomato Photo: Zomato
• PT: In little more than a month you've acquired key restaurant review sites in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Is this focus on Central and Eastern Europe deliberate? Can you explain the logic behind it? Pramod Rao: Yes, in Europe, we are focusing first on Central and Eastern Europe as the local landscape here is less competitive and we see significant market potential. We have acquired great products and teams in the region and it should be an easy win for us going ahead. We are also looking to expand further in CEE and beyond. Sweden, Finland, Norway, Belgium are potential markets we are looking to enter in the near future.
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 8
• PT: Your global organization includes 800+ staff and you've already launched recruitment in Poland. How many employees will the Polish Zomato organization include, initially and in medium-to-long term? What kinds of positions will those be, mainly? PR: Currently, we have the team of Gastronauci of about 10 people. We are looking to scale up to a team of 75 in Poland over the next 12 months. In the immediate future, we are looking to build a core team of 15 to 20 across the functions Content, Sales and Marketing. Some of the key positions we are looking for are Content Head, Senior Content Associates, Sales Head, Area Sales Managers and Marketing Associate. • PT: Will you be unifying all services under the Zomato brand, or rather keep the local brands, like Gastronauci, which are well known to users? PR: Yes, we will be unifying all services under the Zomato brand. For example, in Poland, we will migrate all of the content and user accounts from Gastronauci to the polish version of Zomato and redirect traffic to our page. The change is not going to be immediate and it will take close to 3 months to make the transition as smooth as possible. • PT: How would you explain the business model behind Zomato? Where does the revenue come from? Are you profitable in any of the markets where Zomato operates? PR: Our business model revolves around hyper local advertising relevant to users' needs. We provide restaurants the option to reach out to a highly targeted audience via our advertising options. All of the revenue currently comes from our website. 50% of our 23 million monthly visitors come via our app which we haven't monetized yet. We plan to introduce hyper local advertising options on our apps in the near future as well. We have also recently introduced a freemium product for restaurant owners to connect and engage with users on Zomato more effectively. We will also start payments for both delivery and dine-ins that us-
ers will be able to use via the Zomato app. Merchants can provide the option to users to make payments through a swift one-swipe transaction. Currently, we are profitable in India, have broken even in UAE and 6 other markets are close to breaking even in the immediate future. • PT: In the case of Poland - in what way will Zomato's acquisition of Gastronauci contribute to the latter platform? Will users & merchants benefit in any way? PR Both users and merchants will be introduced to a new enhanced experience going ahead. There will be a lot more focus on social discovery of restaurants from the point of view of a user. They will be able to not just consumer and contribute content but also be able to engage with the platform much more via social features. They can follow other users on Zomato of their choice, build their network of foodies and discover restaurants based on the recommendations of their network. Merchants will have access to a host of tools to increase their visibility to this targeted audience and connect and engage with users in a more effective way on our platform.
RETAIL
Upscale interior goods chain Almi Decor goes bankrupt Furniture and interior goods chain Almi Decor, which at the peak of its expansion had some upscale 40 outlets in Poland's leading shopping centers, is about to close down. Its owner, Polish company Ade Line has filed for bankruptcy in a Wrocław court.
Established in the 1990s by Polish entrepreneurs Zbigniew Mrozek and Maria Koszucka, Almi Decor introduced the concept of luxury living to the Polish market, selling carefully selected furniture and objects in immaculately designed stores that employed professional interior designers, cooperated with home decor magazines, looking considerably more attractive than ones run by its competitors. The business seemed to be going well and in 2007 the company even started getting ready for an IPO. Encouraged by the success, Ade Line launched a second brand, Flo, with funky interior goods and novelty items that targeted a younger clientele. The Flo chain grew up to some 20 outlets at one point, but it was also the first of the two to go under, as Ade Line shut all of its stores last year. The reality check came with the financial crisis, which reminded the Poles how shaky the foundations of their newfound prosperity really were. It also triggered recession in the residential sector, resulting in lower demand for all things home. At the same time, ecommerce exploded, giving clients with a taste for glamorous interiors plenty of of new, competitively prices sources of furniture and goods. Meanwhile, Almi Decor kept paying prime rents in Poland's best shopping centers and trying to charge premium prices for items savvy shoppers could find elsewhere for less. The business model began to creak. According to the last available data, in 2013 Ade Line posted a PLN 1.2m net loss on PLN 95m turnover. The owners of Almi Decor have been looking for an investor, however, to no avail. Some market insiders blamed the fact that Ade Line remains in conflict with its previous investor, IDM brokerage, reportedly over the company's abandoned IPO plans. It looks like Almi Decor is about to follow in Flo's footsteps and vanish from the market for good.
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 9
Poland's interior goods market is being estimated at some PLN 12bn. The leading player is Sweden's IKEA Retail with eight outlets and annual sales of PLN 2bn.
sales excluding cars remained quite stable at 2.2-2.4% y/y over the last few months," they added. The PAP Polish news agency analyst survey had shown consensus expectations for annual growth of 1.6% and a monthly decline of 0.9%. In real terms, Polish retail sales were up by 2.8% y/y in August after a 3.1% y/y increase in July, GUS added.
RETAIL
Retail sales increase 1.7% y/y in August Polish retail sales rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in August (down from 2.1% y/y in July), on a 1.1% monthly decrease, the Central Statistics Office (GUS) said, confirming worries about decelerating economic growth. The figure was largely in line with average projections. A closer look at the data shows that slowdown was chiefly due to a significant drop in sales of motor vehicles.
"We are expecting a gradual improvement of retail sales, which should be supported by good labor market situation and rise in households’ real disposable incomes. This, in our view, should support further gradual improvement of private consumption in the upcoming quarters," BZ WBK said.support further gradual improvement of private consumption in the upcoming quarters.
to get all the paperwork together. What's unusual about Forum Radunia, is that it will be partially developed over existing train tracks, enabling the city to reclaim some 1.5ha of extremely valuable land. The investment is being developed as a public private partnership between Multi Development and the City of Gdańsk. Besides some 200 retail outlets, a 9-screen Multikino cinema, 1,100 parking spaces, numerous cafes and restaurants, Forum Radunia will incorporate a brand new Gdańsk historical museum, showcasing the legacy of this former Hansaetic city.
RETAIL PROPERTIES
Multi Corporation gets building permit for huge mixedmixed-use project in Gdańsk city centre
Retail sales in Poland (y/y) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 14
Aug 14
Source: GUS
"Car sales fell in monthly terms by 15.1%, while clothing and footwear as well as furniture and household appliances surprised on the upside, having risen by 4% and by 6%, respectively," commented BZ WBK analysts. "According to our estimates, growth of retail
Dutch-based property developer Multi Corporation has obtained a long-awaited permit for its flagship Polish development, the mixed-use scheme Forum Radunia in the centre of Gdańsk. Located in one of the northern Polish city's best locations, directly by the central train station and Old Town, Forum Radunia is to reach completion by the end of 2016, offering 62,000 sq.m of GLA. The project has been the stuff of talk in Gdańsk for nearly a decade, but due to its complexity and the number of parties involved, it has taken Multi a while
Forum Radunia was designed by Multi Corporation's in-house architectural studio T+T Design and the Polish arm of France's Sud Achitectes. Photo: Multi
"We aim to create lively, friendly, welcoming and modern urban space. Its unique location, at the extension of the Royal Route, with access to all modes of public transportation in the Tricity and good connection to the ring road will make Forum Radunia a new landmark of the city, attracting tourists and locals alike. There is huge interest in the project from the potential tenants," says Tomasz Matusiak, Managing Director of Multi Development Polska. Multi has already inked pre-lease agreements with a number of domestic and international chains, includ-
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 10
ing C&A, Deichmann, Diverse, Douglas, H&M, Rossmann, Solar, Super-Pharm, SWISS, Triumph, Vistula, W.Kruk, Wólczanka, Yes and McDonald’s. The Gdańsk-based top Polish fashion retailer LPP will bring all of its brands (HOUSE, Mohito, Reserved, Sinsay, and home&you) to Forum Radunia. The fitness center will be operated by Pure Jatomi. Although Multi Development is a major player in Europe and Turkey, where it owns and/or manages 60 shopping centers with 5,200 shops and restaurants that receive 330m customers annually and turn over EUR 3.2bn, its presence in Poland has been very limited to-date. In 2007 Multi had been involved in the 55,000 sq.m Forum Koszalin project in northern Poland, but four years later it sold its stake in the development to Atrium European Real Estate.
EMPLOYMENT
Report: Poland still needs to make labour market more flexible
Theoretically, from the employer’s perspective, there are much better places to invest.” On the positive side, the report found that investors were still coming in and creating jobs, especially in manufacturing and IT. The country is seen as a “premier location” for shared service centres, which are also developing from standard operational tasks to more advanced processes like HR, procurement & logistics, marketing and strategic planning. It also found that a pick-up in export-oriented industries has contributed to a general lowering of the unemployment rate in Poland. However, Poland’s score in the report dropped from last year in labour market flexibility, despite the implementation of a set of reforms meant to deregulate professions. Młynarczyk said Poland’s score fell because of new social taxes imposed on businesses, and because legislation is currently under consideration that would increase employers’ contribution to pension insurance when employing someone on a taskbased contract (umowa zlecenie). “If there’s one lesson in the report for the government, it’s that these things are being noticed,” he said.
With IT and outsourcing centres springing up all over Poland, it is clear that investors see value in the country’s talent pool. However, Poland still has much work to do if it wants to improve the attractiveness of its labour market, according to Michał Młynarczyk, managing director for recruitment firm Hays Poland.
Poland also suffers from a significant talent mismatch issue: people graduating from Polish universities simply don’t have the skills to fill the job vacancies firms have. On this point, however, Poland’s score improved from last year, because businesses and universities have begun to cooperate more extensively. At least 100 programmes exist in which employers and universities cooperate to teach skills that will land graduates jobs.
Młynarczyk was commenting on his firm’s Global Skills Index report, which was released last week. The index scored Poland at 5.0 on a 10-point scale – meaning it’s not too much of either an employer’s market or an employee’s market. But Młynarczyk described the glass as half empty, saying, “it’s not great for either.
But, according to Młynarczyk, “the problem is, it’s still not enough. We’re only half way there from the employer’s perspective.” He added that these programmes had been created almost exclusively on the initiative of employers, rather than universities or local governments. He favours creating a tripartite body
of employers, universities and the government, that could create a long-term, coordinated strategy to help universities manage curricula. That could help to ease wage pressure in Poland’s market for highly skilled jobs, especially in industries such as engineering, R&D, IT, pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Polish firms are struggling to find affordable talent in these areas, especially as Europe’s economy is picks up. Poland’s Western neighbours are luring away Polish talent with higher salaries and better conditions. According to statistics office GUS, in 2013 2.2 million Poles left Poland – the highest emigration figure since 2007. Poland could address this issue by easing its immigration policies to talent from the east, especially Ukraine. Poland’s eastern neighbour boasts plenty of highly skilled people that could fill the gap. But Poland’s immigration regulations are onerous, and make no distinction between high- and low-skilled immigrants. That means it is equally difficult for a Ukrainian software engineer to enter Poland as it is for a Ukrainian brick-layer. Młynarczyk suggested that the government should prioritise a set of professions that would receive favoured status, allowing Ukrainian IT specialists, for example, to enter and work in Poland more easily. When it comes to Ukrainians, “Poland does not have an immigration policy in terms of those high-skilled employees,” said Młynarczyk. “We just kind of make it difficult for everyone.” by Andrew Kureth.
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2013 / page 11
was pitifully low. Why was that, I asked my Polish friends at the time.
OPINION
Team sports have a winning formula for Poland The increasing popularity of sports – and especially team sports– will have a positive effect on Polish society
by Poland Today Editor Andrew Kureth
They replied that when Poland began its transformation process to a market economy, parents encouraged schooling at the expense of sport. The reasoning went that in the new capitalist rat-race economy, brains would be the difference between success or failure, having bread on the table or starving. Sport was a luxury that kids could not afford to waste their time on. Now there’s certainly nothing wrong with wanting one’s child to have an edge in the intelligence department, but that view was a misunderstanding of both the capitalist system and the value of sport. A proper capitalist economy rewards well-rounded individuals who excel at the things sport can teach, such as perseverance through adversity, creative problem solving, hard work, discipline and teamwork.
Sure, people did play sports, and die-hard football fans watched the Polish league. But coming from the States as I do, where sport is ingrained in the culture, I was surprised that there wasn’t a weekly (or at least monthly) fixture that the entire family would sit down and watch; that more folks didn’t walk around with tshirts and jerseys of their favourite teams; that universities, not to mention high schools, didn’t have sport teams.
Over the years, however, things have begun to change. Ski-jumper Adam Małysz, the single Polish sport superstar back when I arrived in Poland, got kids excited about his discipline. Now Poland has a cadre of talented jumpers and a relatively well-developed training system for them. Robert Kubica brought F1 racing into the limelight here. Justyna Kowalczyk has put Poland on the cross-country skiing map. Tennis players such as Agnieszka Radwańska and Jerzy Janowicz are serving up exciting play. Cycling is increasing in popularity both as a pastime and as a spectator sport: Rafał Majka won the Tour de Pologne and saw success at the Tour de France this year. Long-distance running has exploded: marathons are increasingly popular, and jogging has become the sport that the highest number of Poles say they participate in.
Of course, some of that is cultural. Things are done differently in Europe, with kids tending to play for youth clubs rather than school teams as they do in the US. But still, my experience was that the participation rate
But team sports, which teach cooperation and trust, are growing in popularity as well. Cooperation and trust are key social values that need to be reinforced in Poland if its economy is to succeed moving forward.
When I first came to Poland 13 years ago, I remember being disappointed at the general lack of excitement about, and participation in, sport.
Leaders such as former Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Bielecki and president of business advocacy Lewiatan Henryka Bochniarz emphasised this point at Poland Today’s Poland Transformed conference back in May. Witness the swift rise of Poles participating in sports such as rugby, American football and lacrosse. Even football, where Poland’s national team has had little success, is gaining in popularity. The game has long been by far the most popular spectator sport in Poland, but most fans opted to watch the other European leagues, as the Polish league floundered, mired in sloppy play, corruption, and hooliganism. It still can’t match the English Premier League, but play is getting better. And then, of course, there is volleyball. Both Poland’s men’s and women’s national teams have had a measure of success for years. The men’s team even made it to the finals in 2006, when they lost to Brazil. But on September 21, the Polish men’s team became world champions. It was their first such championship since 1974, and in winning they beat three-time defending champions Brazil in a thrilling match on home soil. Poles were ecstatic, and in the following days all the media could talk about were the keys to the team’s victory and how it could continue to win with several veteran players announcing their retirement. The excitement has me even more optimistic for Poland’s future. I’m a big believer in the positive influence sport can have on individuals and communities. Over the past few weeks, as the world volleyball championships played out, Poland came together behind a team that worked together, trusted each other and persevered. The result was the ultimate victory. As Poles continue to get excited about such successes, the positive message that sport – and especially team sport – has to send will no doubt play a role in continuing to shape Polish society for the better.
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2014 / page 12
KEY STATISTICS Consumer Prices
Inflation Jun '14
Jul '14
Aug '14
Sector
y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m
Food & bev
-0.8
-1.1
+3.8
+1.2
+2.1
+1.7
2013
2% 1%
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
-2.8
-5.1
-2.7
0%
Turnover in PLNbn
582.8
593.0
646.1
676.0
n/a
0.0 +0.6
+0.1
+4.3
+5.5
+11.6
+5.6
+2.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
-1.0 +0.8
+1.3 +2.4 +2.6 +0.3 0.0
-1.5
0.0
+1.2 +3.9
+1.3
-0.2 -0.2
-1% Aug 14
-0.1
Jun 14
Transport
y/y (%) Apr 14
-0.1 +0.6
Feb 14
+1.6
Oct 13
0.0
Dec 13
-4.9
Jun 13
+1.6
-0.1
+4.7
+8.4
0.0
Housing
-0.1
-1.1
0.0 +3.8
-0.8
-1.1
Jul '14 Aug '14
-2.7
+0.1 +4.0
-4.7
+0.2
May '14 Jun '14
+2.3
y/y (%)
-0.1
Gross CPI
Apr '14
m/m (%)
-1.6
-4.6
Communications
m/m
-2.1
Clothing, shoes
-1.1
Aug 13
-1.7
Apr 13
+0.2 +4.0
-0.3
Feb 13
Alcohol, tobacco +3.9
-0.9
Month y/y
3%
Dec 12
-0.4
Retail Turnover
4%
Oct 12
May '14
Aug 12
Data in (%)
-0.3 -0.4
Residential Construction Dwellings
2009 2010
2011
2012
2013 Jan-Aug y/y
178.8
174.9
184.1
165.1
138.7
158.1
162.2
141.8
(in '000 units)
Producer Prices
Industrial Output Out put
Permits
2014
(%)
105.8
+15.6 +16.5
Commenced
142.9
127.4
99.5
m/m (%)
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
+0.3
m/m (%)
-1.8
+9.4
-2.3
-1.7
-0.1
+2.0
-8.5
U. construction
670.3 692.7 723.0
713.1 694.0
705.7
-0.1
y/y (%)
-1.4
-1.3
-0.7
-1.0
-1.8
-2.1
-1.5
y/y (%)
+5.3
+5.4
+5.4
+4.4
+1.7
+2.3
-1.9
Completed
160.0 135.7
152.5
88.7
-2.9
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
y/y (%)
+2.0
+2.2
+3.4
+2.1
+7.6
+3.3
-1.3
y/y (%)
+10.7
+3.6
-3.5
+9.8
+7.7
+1.0
+2.2
Gross Domestic Product
Month
Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14
Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14 Jul '14 Aug '14
Construction Output
Construction Prices Month
Month
Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14
Month
Period
Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14 Jul '14 Aug '14
m/m (%)
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
m/m (%)
+18.7
+24.2
+3.2
+14.0
+16.9
+0.9
-5.4
y/y (%)
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9
y/y (%)
+14.4
+17.4
+12.2
+10.0
+8.0
+1.1
-3.6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year y/y (%)
+7.4
+4.8
+0.2
-0.1
+1.0
+0.2
-1.8
y/y (%)
+15.5
+12.1
+5.1
+4.6
+11.8
-0.6
-12.0
Source: The Central Statistical Office of Poland, GUS
Gross Wages
131.7
146.1
GDP in PLN bn current prices
Growth y/y unadjusted
Current account def. in % of GDP
Q2 2014
+3.3%
413,457
-0.9%
Q1 2014
+3.4%
397,429
-1.0%
Q4 2013
+2.7%
455,528
-1.3%
Q3 2013
+2.0%
405,554
-1.9%
2013
+1.6%
1,635,746
-1.3%
2012
+1.9%
1,596,379
-3.7%
A: avg monthly wages in PLN B: indexed avg wages, 100=2005
Sentiment Indicators
2011
+4.5%
1,528,127
-5.0%
Sector
Economic sentiment and consumer confidence indicators
2010
+3.9%
1,416,585
-5.1%
8,615
196 6,333
144 6,382 145
3,625
158 3,690
161 3,663
160 3,743 163
Energy
6,021
183 6,736 205 6,358
193 6,020 183
Construction
3,766 160 3,895
166 3,706
158 3,884 166
Retail & repairs
3,408
145 3,456
147 3,544
151 3,577 153
Transportation
3,589
127
3,913
138 3,666
IT, telecoms
6,654
173 6,695
174 6,987
181 6,835
177
Financial sector
6,109
137 6,602
148 6,747
152 6,738
151
National average 3,652
145 3,823
152 3,895
155 3,740 149
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
130 3,650 129
0
100
-20
80
-40
60 Se p 14
138
120
Jun 14
6,061
Manufacturing
C onsumer confidenc e (le ft a xis) Economic se ntiment (right axis)
20
M ar 14
B
Dec 13
A
B
Sep 13
A
B
Jun 13
A
Ma r 13
B
Dec 12
A
Se p 12
Q2 2014
Jun 12
Q1 2014
Mar 12
Q4 2013
Dec 11
Coal mining
Q3 2013
The economic sentiment (1990-2010 average = 100) is a composite made up of 5 sectoral confidence indicators, which are arithmetic means of seasonally adjusted balances of answers to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variable. Source: Eurostat
Key Economic Data & Projections Indicator
2011
2012
GDP change
+4.5%
+1.9%
+1.6%
+3.1%
+3.1%
Consumer inflation
+4.3%
+3.7%
+0.9%
+0.1%
+0.9%
Producer inflation
+7.6% +3.4%
-1.3%
-1.0%
+1.1%
CA balance, % of GDP
-5.0%
-3.7%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-2.0%
Nominal gross wage
+5.2%
+3.7%
+3.4%
+3.5%
+4.0%
Unemployment**
12.5%
13.4%
13.4%
12.2%
11.7%
4.12
4.19
4.20
4.17
4.09
EUR/PLN
2013
*2014
*2015
Sources: NBP, BZ WBK, PKO BP, GUS *) projections **) year-end
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2014 / page 13
56.13 ↓
100 SEK
45.42 ↓
100 NOK
51.18 ↓
10,000 JPY
USD EUR
350
300
15.19 →
100 CZK 10,000 HUF
400
300.68 ↑ 134.17 ↓
Money Supply in PLN m
May '14
Jun '14
Jul '14
4.8%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
↓ Alior Bank
82.47
-5%
PLN (over 5 y)
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
↑ Asseco Pol.
45.64
PLN (total)
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
↓ Bogdanka
108.5
EUR (up to 1m EUR) 2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
↓ BZ WBK
397
-2%
+2%
EUR (over 1m EUR) 3.4%
3.3%
3.0%
2.7%
3.4%
3.1%
↓ Eurocash
31.1
-3%
-35%
WIG-20 blue chip index
28.65
-3%
-19%
↓ JSW
31.17
-4%
-41%
2,484 2,484. 484 .02
↑ Kernel
25.2
+1%
-34%
Change 1 week
-2% ↓
↓ KGHM
127.9
-3%
+8%
Change end of '
+3% ↑
9,680
-3%
+8%
491.1
-4%
-2%
↓ Orange Pol.
11.31
-5%
+15%
Credit
↓ Pekao
191.2
-2%
+7%
The financial sector's net lending in PLN bn,
↓ PGE
20.8
-4%
+28%
↓ Grupa Lotos
Warsaw Inter Bank Offered Rate (WIBOR) as of 26 Sept 2014 Overnight
1 week
1 month
3 months
6 months
2.41%
2.55%
2.45%
2.32%
2.30%
Rediscount 2.75%
167,008 574,529
M3
PLN (up to 5 y )
4.4%
1.00%
164,008
119,649
120,828
975,001 980,090 435,386 991,120
426,351
122,209
124,986
985,769 1,003,128 434,256
448,037
996,171 1,002,137 1,020,561
- Net foreign assets 142,260 144,033 152,864 162,129 Monetary base: Polish currency emitted by the central bank and money on accounts held with it. M1= currency outside banks + demand deposits M2= M1+ time deposits (inc in foreign currencies) M3= the broad measure of money supply Source: NBP
Change 1 week
-14%
4.5%
NBP deposit
570,507
-1%
-5%
4.4%
4.00%
173,096
+2%
4.4%
Lombard
572,376
54,574. 574.21
4.5%
2.59%
557,651
+1%
4.5%
Reference
162,246
- Time deposits
WIG Total index
PLN (up to 1 year)
Aug '14
Monetary base
M2
WIG-20 stocks Price Change Change in alphabetical 26 Sep 19 Sep end of order '14 '14 '13
Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14 Jul '14
Central Bank (NBP) Base Rates
M1 - Currency outside banks
as of 26 September 2014
↓ LPP ↓ mBank
loan stock at the end of period
56,000 55,000 54,000
5.13
-1%
0%
53,000
-5%
+1%
52,000
950,774
↓ PKO BP
38.86
-3%
-1%
274,549
277,482
↑ PZU
484.7
+2%
+8%
578,639
581,447
587,136
→ Synthos
4.73
0%
-14%
1,660,583 1,667,783
1,678,129
1,718,251
→ Tauron
5.28
0%
21%
Jul' 14
Aug' 14
Loans to customers
930,652
940,703
939,641
- to private companies
273,360
276,709
- to households
574,800
Total assets of banks
last three months
41.59
Jun' 14
Source: Central Bank NBP
+6% ↑
WIG Total closing index
↓ PKN Orlen
↓ PGNiG
May' 14
Type of loan
-2% ↓
Change end of '13
51,000 50,000 49,000 4 Sep 14
100 DKK
Warsaw Stock Exchange, rates in PLN
on loans to non-financial corporations
26 Sep 14
346.08 ↓
26 Sep 14
535.17 ↑
100 CHF
21 Jul 14
100 GBP
4 Mar 14
417.81 ↓
13 May 14
100 EUR
Key indices
Term / currency
450
20 Dec 13
327.76 ↑
11 Oct 13
100 USD
Stock Exchange
Average weighted annual interest rates
21 Jul 14
as of 26 September 2014
I nterest rates
12 Aug 14
100 USD/EUR against PLN
Central Bank average rates
27 Jun 14
Currency
Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange
Trade Poland's ten largest trading partners, ranked according to 2013
Poland exports and imports according to commodity groups, according to SITC classification EXPORTS in PLN bn Jan-Jul 2014
y/y (%)
share (%)
2013
EXPORTS in PLNbn
IMPORTS in PLN bn share (%)
Jan-Jul 2014
y/y (%)
share (%)
2013
share (%)
No Country
Jan-Jul share 2014
IMPORTS in PLN bn 2013
share No
Country
Jan-Jul share 2014
2013
share
Food and live animals
42,121
+6.3
10.7
69,304
10.9
28,562
+5.2
7.3
47,906
7.4
1 Germany
101,201 25.8% 162,548 25.1%
1 Germany
85,393 21.7%
Beverages and tobacco
5,724
+15.8
1.5
8,624
1.4
2,366
+2.8
0.6
4,150
0.6
2 UK
25,021
2 Russia
44,274 11.3% 79,578 12.1%
9,655
+3.6
2.5
15,744
2.5
12,436
-1.6
3.2
21,585
3.3
3 Czech Rep.
23,969
6.1%
40,110
6.2%
3 China
38,226 9.7%
16,270
-6.1
4.1
30,013
4.7
42,903
+3.3
10.9
75,539
11.7
4 France
22,469
5.7%
36,367
5.6%
4 Italy
21,433 5.5% 34,940 5.3%
Crude materials except fuels Fuels etc
6.4%
42,138
6.5%
142,161 21.7% 61,127 9.3%
1,115
+9.2
0.3
1,864
0.2
1,531
+04
0.4
2,646
0.4
5 Russia
17,355
4.4% 34,069
5.3%
5 Netherlands
14,647 3.7% 25,409 3.9%
Chemical products
36,076
+4.6
9.2
59,103
9.3
58,772
+6.5
15.0
92,917
14.3
6 Italy
18,212
4.6%
4.3%
6 France
15,374 3.9%
Manufactured goods by material
78,475
+3.1
20.0
129,915
20.3
70,529
+6.5
18.0
112,392
17.3
7 Netherlands
7 Czech Rep.
13,558 3.5% 24,054 3.7%
Machinery, transport equip.
150,231
+7.5
38.3
239,434
37.5
129,867
+3.7
33.1
216,608
33.4
8 Ukraine
n/a
n/a
18,020
2.8%
8 USA
Other manufactured articles
51,908
+11.7
13.2
82,816
13.0
37,818 +14.8
9.6
58,210
9.0
9 Sweden
11,081
2.8%
17,581
2.7%
9 UK
10 Slovakia
9,795
2.5%
17,099
Animal and vegetable oils
Not classified TOTAL
629
n/a
0.2
1,782
0.2
8,044
n/a
1.9
16,242
2.6
392,204
+6.0
100
638,599
100
392,828
+5.0
100
648,195
100
15,808 4.0%
27,958
25,707 4.0%
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
2.6% 10 Belgium
9,482 2.4%
25,041 3.8% 17,431
2.7%
10,269 2.6%
17,184 2.6%
9,768 2.5%
15,137 2.3%
weekly newsletter # 054 / 29th September 2014 / page 14
Industrial Industrial Properties
Regional Data Industrial output Jan-Aug 2014 *
Poland's regions (main cities indicated
Indus-
in brackets)
Monthly wages (PLN) Jan-Aug 2014**
Unemployment Aug 2014
Constru- Indus- Constru-in '000
try
ction
try
%
ction
Existing stock, sq.m
New dwellings Jan-Aug 2014
by region, 1H 2014
Num- Index *
Warsaw central
ber
Warsaw suburbs
VaEffective Under const cancy rents EUR/ ruction, sq.m ratio sq.m/mth
617,000
8,000
14.7%
1–5.0
2,137,000
14,000
11.3%
1.9–3.2
102.4
113.1
4,403
4,228
129.0
11.2
8,335
79.3
Central Poland
1,107,000
59,000
11.7%
1.9-3.1
Kujawsko-Pomorskie (Bydgoszcz) 104.7
109.6
3,447
3,304
128.0
15.8
3,901
94.2
Poznań
1,100,000
316,000
1.9%
2.3–2.9
102.8
82.8
3,742
3,099
115.9
12.6
3,317
84.9
Upper Silesia
1,576,000
57,000
7.9%
2.3–3.1
115.1
106
3,483
3,081
48.3
13.1
1,811
89.6
Wrocław
939,000
315,000
6.2%
2.4–3.0
Łódzkie (Łódź)
100.6
109.9
3,740
3,315
131.7
12.4
Małopolskie (Kraków)
100.7
107.1
3,827
3,391
139.9
Mazowieckie (Warszawa)
100.5
104.3
4,623
5,048
258.0
Opolskie (Opole)
105.9
122.3
3,649
3,549
43.7
12.3
1,168
102.8
Podkarpackie (Rzeszów)
102.9
110.8
3,425
3,124
134.8
14.5
4,231
105.8
Podlaskie (Białystok)
106.9
120.4
3,323
3,904
61.5
13.3
2,539
109.9
Pomorskie (Gdańsk-Gdynia)
108.5
121.8
4,041
3,470
96.0
11.3
6,208
85.1
Śląskie (Katowice)
100.7
109.2
4,572
3,552
181.5
9.9
6,642
94.7
Warsaw
Świętokrzyskie (Kielce)
108.3
100.9
3,444
3,296
77.8
14.6
1,960
122.1
Kraków
Warmińsko-Mazurskie (Olsztyn)
104.5
107.1
3,293
3,153
95.2
18.4
2,681
99.1
Katowice
5,602
Wielkopolskie (Poznań)
106.5
104.0
3,767
3,784
120.7
8.1
8,894
99.8
Poznań
6,552
+3.3%
Zachodniopomorskie (Szczecin)
104.1
103.0
3,559
3,487
91.0
15.2
3,718
100.9
Łódź
4,936
+2.6%
National average
103.4
107.2
4,016
11.7 88,699
97.1
Wrocław
6,092
+2.0%
Tricity
6,092
-4.9%
Dolnośląskie (Wrocław) Lubelskie (Lublin) Lubuskie (Zielona Góra)
3,831 1,853.2
4,195
101.9
Tri-city
215,000
45,000
4.2%
2.2–3.7
10.0 10,236
99.6
Kraków
159,000
11,000
1.9%
3.5-4.0
10.1 18,863
106.3
Homes & Commercial Commercial Properties New apartments* Q2 '14
City
PLN/sq.m
*) Index 100 = same period of the previous year. ** without social taxes Sources: Central Statistical Office GUS, NBP, C&W
Offices 1H'14
Retail rents**1H'14
Change Headline Vacancy Retail ratio
High
y/y
rents**
centres streets
7,924
-2.0%
11 -25
6,389
+6.0% 13.5-14.5
3.6%
35-40
78
-3.7%
5.4%
35-40
50
14-15
11.5%
35-40
62
11.5-12.5
10.6%
35-40
78
14.15
10.9%
35-40
45
12.8-13.5
11.5%
35-40
40
13.35% 100-120
11.5-13.8
148
*avg, offer-based ** EUR/sq.m/month; Prime units 100-150 sq.m
Poland Today Sp. z o. o. ul. Złota 61 lok. 100, 00–819 Warsaw, Poland tel/fax: +48 22 464 82 69 mobile: +48 694 922 898, +48 602 214 603 www.poland-today.pl Business Review+ Editor Lech Kaczanowski office: +48 22 412 41 69 mobile: +48 607 079 547 lech.kaczanowski@poland-today.pl
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR m)
Unemployment
Q4 '12
Q1 '13
Q2 '13
Q3 '13
Q4 '13
Q1 '14
in Poland
2,886
175
-3,020
1,885
-2,899
2,771
Polish DI
-1,203
957
2,588
-1,449
1,575
562
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
in Poland
10,128
9,343
10,507
14,896
4,763
-4,574
Polish DI
-3,072
-3,335
5,484
-5,935
-607
3,684
-5,175
2,309
1,094
151
1,159
4,048
4,642
5,249
1,032 1,257
1,245
-18,519 -14,191 -4,984 -2,086 -1,415
-766
-3.7%
2013 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14
-1.3%
-1.9% -1.3%
-1.1%
Standard & Poor's
A-
stable
Moody's
A2
stable
9 2,000
1,800
6
Source: NBP, BZ WBK, PKO BP Source: Central Statistical Office GUS
Wage
Aug 10
Apr 11
Dec Aug 11 12
1 year- EUR 690 (PLN 2760) 6 months- EUR 375 (PLN 1480) 3 months- EUR 245 (PLN 980)
James Anderson-Hanney
Real Earnings 180 160 140 120 100
Business Review+ Subscription
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Average gross wage vs inflation.
Q3 14
-10,059
CA balance vs GDP -5.0%
12
Q1 14
CA balance
2012
stable
Source: Rating agencies
Q3 13
Services, net
2011
outlook
A-
2,400
Q1 13
Trade balance
15
2,200
Current Account (EUR m) Period
number (left axis) % (right axis)
2,600
Q3 12
2008
Fitch Ratings
% of population in working age
Q1 12
Year
Agency rating
Registered unemployed, in ‘000 and
Q3 11
Quarter
Country Credit Ratings
CPI
Apr 13
Index 100 = Jan 2005. Source: GUS
Dec Aug 13 14
james.anderson-hanney@polandtoday.pl Publisher Richard Stephens Financial Director Arkadiusz Jamski Creative Director Bartosz Stefaniak New Business Consultant Tomasz Andryszczyk