Poland Today Business Review+ No. 047

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1 year subscription: EUR 690 (PLN 2760) Newsletter Editor: Lech Kaczanowski lech.kaczanowski@poland-today.pl tel. +48 607 079 547 Sales Contact: James Anderson-Hanney james.anderson-hanney@poland-today.pl

No. 047 / 11th August 2014 / www.poland-today.pl / magazine, conferences, portal, newsletter

BANKING & FINANCE More than 2m Poles remain loyal to private pension funds page 2 PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Griffin gets green light for EUR 80m Hala Koszyki mixed-use project in Warsaw page 3 Belgium's Immobel begins work on CEDET project in Warsaw page 5 HOSPITALITY PURO Hotel opens in Poznań, secures top sites in Warsaw and Łódź page 6

Miedzi Copper is competing for a key license with Polish giant KGHM.

Polish Zdrojowa Invest breaks ground on Radisson Blu Resort in Świnoujscie page 7 Photo: KGHM

Canadian firm halts Poland exploration

Canadian-owned Miedzi Copper Corp. has suspended exploration work in Poland in protest against the government's decision to revoke a strategically important license the company had obtained a few months ago. The Canadians had plans for a brand new PLN 12bn-15bn copper mine in Western Poland. page 2

SERVICES & BPO Japanese shipping firm to establish European SSC in Gdańsk page 8

tel. +48 881 650 600

TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS Immofinanz exiting Poland's logistics sector, sells Warsaw's Bokserska Distribution Park page 8 Panattoni begins new project in Upper Silesia page 9 RETAIL Lidl building 8th distribution centre in Bydgoszcz page 10 Retail group EM&F suspends bond issue as investors lose appetite for risk page 10 Construction of Outlet Center Białystok begins with Lublin to open by year-end page 11 POLITICS & ECONOMY Government lists strategic state-held companies page 12 KEY FIGURES Up-to-date macroeconomic figures, currency & stock market data and lots of other hard-to-find info pages 13-15


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BANKING & FINANCE

More than 2m Poles remain loyal loyal to private pension funds More than 2.2m Poles have chosen to continue to transfer a portion of their social security contributions to private pension funds OFE under the reformed system, according to the most recent statement by ZUS, the state social insurance board. As part of a recent overhaul of the country's pension system, ZUS was put back in charge of handling pension premiums, with those willing to have a fraction of their old-age savings managed by the OFEs having to submit special applications, under a default opt-out formula. An advertising ban had also been imposed on the OFE. Some 14m Poles had been given time to end-July to opt into the existing system. Despite the amount of press coverage the "OFE or ZUS dilemma" has received in recent weeks, the choice was merely symbolic in nature, as those, who remained faithful to the OFE, will have only a tiny 2.92% of their gross wages transferred to the privately-run funds, with the bulk of their contributions to be managed by the state fund anyway. Most experts agree that an average saver is unlikely to see any noticeable gains from staying in the OFE, 20-30 years from now, as according to projections the combined ZUS-OFE payouts will be insufficient to support the elderly who fail to secure other sources of income before retiring. "The fact that so many working Poles chose to retain their premium flows to the partially privatized segment of the pension system virtually guarantees that no politician would risk trying to abolish the system entirely," economist Ryszard Petru said, calling the re-

sult "a success of the capital market." Indeed, since the OFEs have been among the key investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, their existence and the resources at their disposal are of much greater importance to the stock market than to Poland's future pensioners. The survival of the OFE is also good news to their owners, which include Dutch Aegon and ING, German Allianz, US MetLife, British Aviva, French AXA, Italian Assicurazioni Generali, and Swedish Nordea Bank. Prior to the reform, the OFE had been a goldmine for their managers, who pocketed hefty service fees. The funds will continue to exist, however, in a severely reduced form. The pension fund reform bill was signed into law by President Bronislaw Komorowski in late December last year but sent for review to the Constitutional Tribunal. During the legislative consultation process, concerns about the bill's constitutionality were raised by government agencies and private lobby groups. On 3rd February Poland's private pension funds OFE transferred PLN 153.15bn representing 51.5% of their assets to the state social security fund ZUS, including PLN 134bn Treasury bonds, as part of the overhaul of Poland's pension system. The operation, which had no precedence on Poland's financial markets, also included PLN 17.2bn in other Treasury-guaranteed papers and PLN 1.9bn in cash. Under the governmentapproved pension reform, treasury papers have been cancelled and the sums credited to the accounts of pension savers at the state's own social security office ZUS. OFEs have also been banned from investing in Treasuries and Treasury-guaranteed fixed income securities, but will be freer to invest in equities and municipal and corporate bonds. In order to mitigate the impact of the reform on the financial markets, the government forced the OFEs to invest at least 75% of all their assets in the stock market until the end of 2014, 55% throughout 2015, 35% until the end of 2016, and 15% until the end of 2017.

Polish government's debt dropped to 49.5% of GDP at end-Q1 from 57.1% of GDP at end-2013, according to the ESA'95 methodology, Eurostat said in a recent report, reflecting the effects of the pension reform on the state finances. Nominally, the figure stood at PLN 819bn.

ENERGY & RESOURCES

Canadian firm Miedzi Copper halts exploration works in Poland, Poland, blames gov't Resources firm Miedzi Copper Corp. (MCC), a unit of Canada's Lumina Copper Corporation, which has 14 exploration licenses in Poland, has suspended operations in the country in protest against a recent decision by the Environment Ministry to repeat the procedure of awarding an exploration license in the Bytom Odrzański and Kotla areas in western Poland. The said licenses have been a major bone of contention between the Canadians and Poland's statecontrolled copper & silver giant KGHM, which has strategic interest in the Bytom Odrzański area, including the Głogów Głęboki Przemysłowy mining project as well as Gaworzyce and Głogów exploration licenses. KGHM had applied for the Bytom license alongside MCC but much to its surprise in January 2014 the permit was given to the Canadians. The Polish copper firm appealed from the decision in February, arguing that its application was correct and its offer – better and more rational. According to KGHM, the Canadians won because they promised to make more bore holes over a shorter peri-


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od of time – 15 in five years. KGHM wanted to make eight drillings in the initial period and, based on their results, add a further 31, bringing the total number to 39.

mented Ross Beaty, the founder and majority shareholder of MCC, in a statement Poland Today received from the company. "We haven’t yet received a formal decision from the Environment Ministry so it's too early to speak of what we do next," Lyle Braaten. CEO of Miedzi Copper Corp replied to our question about their subsequent moves and potential participation in a new tender. "Before we decide whether to take part in the new licensing procedure we need to know its terms, precise criteria and time line," Braaten added.

Protecting a state-owned cash cow

Copper is one of Poland's key export commodities. Photo: KGHM

"We conduct serious exploration and mining projects around the world. The way investors are treated at the outset of the investment process is an indicator of how this cooperation will be conducted in the future. The decision of the Minister of the Environment annulling his own earlier decisions has shaken our trust in the Polish government and raised concerns whether in the future, we will be treated in a just and equitable way according to the appropriate Polish and EU laws. We submitted the best offers, confirmed by the Ministry of the Environment itself only in January, as evidenced by the decisions taken at that time. While submitting the offers, we were making the assumption that it is in Poland’s social interest to as quickly and as comprehensively as possible conduct the exploration of the concession areas, so that they may be developed as quickly as possible which would result in the creation of new jobs and assure additional and substantial incomes to the regional and national budgets," com-

Back in February, Prime Minister Donald Tusk asked the country's Internal Security Service (ABW) to look into the circumstances under which the Bytom Odrzański license was given to the Canadians. Adding to the overall controversy was the fact that the managing director of Miedzi Copper is Stanisław Speczik, former head of KGHM and deputy treasury minister. Earlier this year Mr. Speczik told the media his company is likely to begin development of a copper mine based on its Głogów license in southwestern Poland in 2022. "Our intention, as far as its ownership structure, and access to resources are concerned, is to maintain a strong position of KGHM, a company in which the state treasury has a substantial stake and is being considered a strategic national asset," Tusk said at the time. One of Poland's largest corporations, KGHM produced 666,000 tons of copper in its Polish and northern American sites last year. The group posted a net profit of PLN 3bn (EUR 721m) on PLN 24.1bn (EUR 5.7bn) turnover in 2013. The respective 2012 figures stood at PLN 4.3bn (EUR1.1bn) and PLN 267.7bn (EUR 6.4bn). The company has just launched production at its Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile at the cost of USD

4.16bn. KGHM had initially estimated outlays on the project at USD 2.9bn, later raised its estimate to USD 3.9bn. After the ramp-up period to be completed in early 2015, Sierra Gorda's annual output should reach 120,000 tons of copper, 50 million pounds of molybdenum and 60,000 ounces of gold, the firm said. MCC began copper exploration in Poland in 2010 and to date, has invested almost PLN 110m in conducting of comprehensive exploration operations in the southwest region of Poland. According to the information Poland Today received from Miedzi Copper's representatives in Warsaw, by the end of 2015, the Canadian company planned to invest in Poland an additional sum in excess of PLN 250m for conducting the exploration of copper and silver ore. After determining the amount of resources necessary to build a mine, MCC forecasted an investment totaling PLN 12-15bn, which would have created directly and indirectly 86,000 jobs in the country. Lumina is a Vancouver based copper exploration company which controls a number of prospecting licenses in Poland via its subsidiary Miedzi Copper. Lumina's key global asset is the Taca Taca copper, gold, and molybdenum project in Argentina, relatively close to KGHM's Sierra Gorda mine.

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Griffin gets green light for EUR 80m Hala Koszyki mixedmixed-use project in Warsaw Griffin Group, a property investment group operating in Central and Eastern Europe, has obtained the much


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awaited building permit for one of its flagship projects in downtown Warsaw: Hala Koszyki. Construction of the EUR 80m mixed-use project is to begin this month and reach completion by mid-2016. Last week Griffin chose Polish Erbud as the general contractor for the project under an agreement worth PLN 115.5m. Griffin took over also the Hala Koszyki project in downtown Warsaw from Irish developer Quinlan Private Golub, which had sought to build retail space and apartments at the site. After demolishing a historic market hall (which is to be reconstructed following completion of an underground parking lot) in 2006, Quinlan (which in the meantime changed name to Avestus Real Estate) changed the project's profile to offices and Griffin plans to follow in their footsteps, aiming to develop 15,000 sq.m of offices and 6,000 sq.m of retail space at the site along with 200 parking spaces and a 600-sq.m public square. "Retail properties are certainly one of our core business areas, which we intend to develop further. We are interested particularly in buildings with a long history of commerce, located in city centers. This is the type of projects we're looking at," Griffin's CEO Przemysław Krych told Poland Today. Griffin Group was founded in 2006 as a joint-venture between Polish Cornerstone Partners and British Chelsfield Partners, as a platform to manage funds focused on real estate investment in Central and Eastern Europe, mainly in Warsaw. In March 2013 the global private equity giant Oaktree Capital Management joined the project with a view to create a long-term platform for real estate-related investments in Poland, including direct purchases of assets, development projects and lending activities. Griffin and Oaktree had been cooperating since 2010 with the private equity partner providing the Warsaw-based property investor with some EUR 150m for acquisition of several key assets, including Hala Koszyki, Meble

Emilia, Renoma shopping center, office buildings in Warsaw and a land bank for residential development. Following the takeover of Chelsfield's stake in Griffin, as a shareholder, Oaktree pledged to invest a further EUR 200m into their projects.

three years, the existing shopping centre will continue to operate, Griffin Group said in the statement. According to market experts, the company will be able to develop more than 80,000 sq.m of offices or a large mixed-use project at this prime site. Perhaps the most publicized investment by Griffin was its 2012 acquisition of state-owned furniture retailer Meble Emilia, which owns a handful of attractive investment sites in Warsaw, including the Emilia store, located between the Warsaw Financial Center and the Intercontinental hotel. The new owner seeks to knock down the two-story socialist-era building and erect a new skyscraper at the site.

The historic Hala Koszyki market hall is to be rebuilt, sandwiched between new office buildings. Image: Griffin Real Estate

Earlier this year Griffin has acquired three office buildings in Warsaw for a combined PLN 200m, including Bliski Office Center (4,900 sq.m GLA), located at Żurawia street in Warsaw’s Central Business District, Nordic Park (8,260 sq.m ) on Krzuczkowskiego St., in the Powiśle area, and Company House II (9,379 sq.m) in the Aleje Jerozolimskie office corridor. Following the transactions, Griffin's office portfolio in Warsaw includes nine properties. Their most impressive purchase in recent months was the Jupiter shopping centre, which Griffin bought along with 2.5 hectares of land, from Spain's Catalunya Banc for an undisclosed amount. The property in question is located at Towarowa St., right by the Rondo Daszyńskiego station on the new subway line, in the heart of Warsaw's booming office district of Wola. Although its previous owner secured a planning decision that allows for the construction of two high-rise buildings on the plot, Griffin said it was considering a number of possible options with regard to the future redevelopment of the Jupiter site. For the next two to

Besides a number of office buildings, Griffin's assets include also a 5.5ha site in Warsaw's western Bemowo district together with a zoning permit and plans for a residential development totaling 90,000 sq.m. Together with Belgian developer Immobel, Griffin acquired seven investment sites from Poland's press distributor Ruch, and the two companies are cooperating on a residential project in Wilanów. Other projects include an investment site and a historic tenement house on Warsaw's Szucha street, a stone's throw from the Prime Minister's office, a 37ha site in Wilanów district and Prima Court office building in Warsaw. In December last year Griffin obtained PLN 18.2m worth of EU funding that will enable the company to transform a former Polonez Hotel in Poznań (acquired from Orbis for PLN 23m) into a private student dormitory. The project is to open by the end of this year and according to Griffin, it will be "competitive in terms of quality and price" in comparison with existing university dorms. Another high-profile acquisition by Griffin was the Renoma shopping center in Wrocław, which the fund acquired for EUR 117.6m from Centrum Developments&Investments. The recently expanded land-


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mark property includes 31,000 sq.m of retail GLA and 10,000 sq,m of office space. In downtown Katowice, Griffin is developing a 21,000 sq.m shopping centre Supersam, with 100 retail outlets, cinema, fitness center, food court and 400 parking spaces. The project, most of which has already been pre-let, is to reach completion in 2015.

Bracka streets. A underground parking with 140 places will serve the entire complex.

Immobel S.A. has been one of the most important players of the Belgian real estate market for over 150 years. The company has been present on the Polish market since 2011, focusing on development of office and residential projects. Currently, its Polish portfolio includes Okrąglak and Kwadraciak in Poznań, CEDET in Warsaw (all three are based on assets acquired from CDI). Immobel and CDI share the same shareholder, the European Eastbridge group, which holds a major stake in the Warsaw-listed retail giant EM&F Empik Media Fashion.

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Belgium's Immobel begins work on CEDET project in Warsaw Polish arm of Belgian developer Immobel is gearing up to begin redevelopment and expansion of the CEDET building in central Warsaw (to most Varsovians better known as Smyk) in a mixed-use project that will deliver 15,000 sq.m of office space and 7,050 sq.m of retail space to one of Warsaw's busiest pedestrian areas. The company, which acquired the building a few years ago from Centrum Development & Investments (CDI) has just obtained a building permit for the project, aiming to begin construction this autumn. Back in 2008, when CDI first announced its plans for Smyk/CEDET, it had put an estimated EUR 100m price tag on the project, which Immobel plans to complete by Q1 2017. Designed by Zbigniew Ihnatowicz and Jerzy Romański, and built in the 1950s in the heart of postwar Warsaw, the original CEDET was one of the city's most distinguished buildings. After a tragic fire of 1975, which completely burned the interior of the structure, the hasty rebuilding altered its unique architecture extensively. Immobel seeks to restore the structure to its original shape as well as develop an entirely new building at the intersection of Krucza and

sent on the Polish market, says Bartłomiej Hofman, CEO of Immobel Poland.

Immobel seeks to give a new lease of life to one of Warsaw's architectural gems. Image: Immobel

Besides class A+ offices with clear height of 2.90 m, openable windows and terraces available for tenants, the project will create some much needed high street retail space in the centre of Warsaw. All retail units will have an independent entrances directly from the street. The modules of different size - from 67 sq.m to 2,300 sq.m, will be mostly spread over two levels and connected internally by escalators, staircases or elevators. The investor is hoping to obtain a BREEAM "Excellent" certificate for the project. "Already, at this early stage of development, the project meets with high interest from potential tenants. With regard to office space commercialization, negotiations with prestigious companies and institutions, mainly from the financial and legal sectors, are being carried out. Considering future tenants of the retail part, we do not limit ourselves to brands already pre-

"Immobel has been a Euronext stock-listed company since 1863. Eastbridge is its reference share-holder with 25 % participation. Immobel's core business is the development of offices, residential & landbanking development and, when the opportunity arises, retail. CDI's expertise is more in the retail sector with a view of keeping the developed investments. It is obvious that in the interest of both parties Immobel and CDI will cooperate in order to maximize their strengths and opportunities," Immobel's CEO Gaëtan Piret told Poland Today's Lech Kaczanowski upon the company's official entry to the Polish market a few years ago. In the residential sector, Immobel is cooperating with Griffin Real Estate, based on a number of acquired from Polish retailer Ruch. Their first joint project is the Eko Natolin city villa complex to be developed one a 36-ha site in the south of Warsaw. The company also holds several investment plots for residential and office projects.


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HOSPITALITY

PURO Hotel opens in Poznań, secures sites in Warsaw and Łódź

The Norwegian developer is currently working on its fourth project, a 96-room hotel in the heart of Gdańsk, on Stągiewna Street.

nament that was expected to bolster interest in the country among foreign visitors, Mr. Askevold replies:

Following the successful launch of their first two PURO Hotels in Wrocław and Kraków, Norway's Genfer Group have added a third property to the Polish portfolio: PURO Hotel Poznań, which launched in July with 140 rooms and three conference rooms. Similar to the Wrocław and Kraków hotels, the Poznań property enjoys a very central location, near the Old Town Square, at the corner of Wroniecka, Stawna, and Żydowska streets. The 4-star hotel offers 140 guest rooms, three conference rooms, and a restaurant. According to Rune Askevold, Managing Director of PURO Hotels and the driving force behind the PURO concept, his goal was to offer high quality accommodation at a reasonable price, something which is still a rarity in Poland. PURO Hotels offer comfortable, modern, and well-equipped rooms, but few additional services. The concept emphasizes self-service and rewards early online booking. Computers replace human receptionists, parking attendants and all redundant personnel. The key member of staff is a concierge, available 24/7, whose responsibilities will be to advice guests where to eat, work out, or rent a car. The concept has received plenty of positive feedback from travelers on review sites such as Tripadvisor and earned PURO a number of awards from Polish hospitality magazines.

Furnished with designer furniture, the hotel's stylish interiors were designed by UK's Blacksheep studio..

PURO Hotel Poznań offers 140 stylish rooms. Image: PURO Hotels

Image: PURO Hotels

"We are on track with the construction in Gdańsk and plan to open the hotel 1st February 2015, at the latest," Rune Askevold tells Poland Today. "We have also secured a great location in Warsaw. I prefer not to reveal the exact address yet, though. We are working with JEMS Architekci on this project and plan to submit the application for final building permit shortly. Hopefully we will be able to open this hotel in Q1 2016. It will be a 4-star property with around 150 rooms, great common areas, a restaurant and bar, fitness/spa, rooftop terrace and also good meeting facilities. We have also acquired a very good plot in Łódź for a 148-room, 4-star project with similar amenities as the one in Warsaw that we are hoping to launch in 2016. We are currently looking for further sites in Warsaw and Kraków, mainly. So step by step our presence in the Polish hotel market is getting stronger and stronger." Asked about the overall mood in Poland's hospitality industry two years after the EURO 2012 soccer tour-

"The markets have been performing quite well, in the period after the Euro2012, especially in the bigger cities. The best performing cities the last months have been Gdańsk, Kraków and Warsaw. PURO is only focusing on Warsaw and the main regional cities, so I do not follow the market too closely when it comes to the smaller, regional cities. But in general, I feel there is a lot of optimism within the hotel industry. There have also been a lot of new supply in many markets lately, and I think there is a possibility in some markets, that the new supply will be bigger than the increase in demand, thus reducing the RevPar for some operators. Having said that, I also strongly believe that travelers are becoming more and more sophisticated and demanding, thus choosing newer hotels with higher standard over the older, lower standard hotels. I have an impression that the number of stars is becoming less important than before. More important for the modern traveler is the perception of getting good value for money and a positive hotel experience, I think. So if you have the right product, you can still be very


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successful, if introducing a new hotel into a very competitive market."

Poland Today talks to: Jan Wróblewski, Board Member at Zdrojowa Invest

HOSPITALITY

Polish Zdrojowa Invest Invest breaks ground on Radisson Blu Resort in Świnoujscie The northwestern Polish city of Świnoujście will get its first five-star hotel in 2016 with the planned launch of Radisson Blu Resort Świnoujście. The project, which is currently being developed by Polish group Zdrojowa Invest, will be also the first Poland's first hotel bearing the Radisson Blu Resort logo as well as the first hotel property designed and built in line with LEED recommendations. The hotel will offer 340 rooms and suites, as well as restaurants, bars, wellness and fitness facilities and the largest conference center on the Polish coast with a capacity of more than 1,000 people. Attractions will include also a rooftop infinity edge swimming pool, located some 50m, above sea level. Additional services, such as an aqua park, will be offered under the Baltic Park Molo complex the hotel will be part of. The operator estimates that the investment will create some 250-300 jobs. Zdrojowa Hotels, part of the Kołobrzeg-based Zdrojowa Holding, runs six upscale hotels in Poland's coastal and mountain resorts, including four in Kołobrzeg (Diune Hotel, Sand Hotel, Marine Hotel, Jantar Spa), as well as Boulevard Ustronie Morskie and Cristal Resort Szklarska Poręba. The group employs some 400 staff.

Once completed, Baltic Park Molo will house more than 600 rooms and suites.. Image: Zdrojowa Invest

Baltic Park Molo is Zdrojowa's flagship development. The company owns a premier site located between the city's most popular promenade, concert hall and the beach. Following an architectural competition, a design by Warsaw's Płaskowicki+Partnerzy studio has been selected, that envisages a complex of four buildings, 150-m pier and public space. Two of the planned buildings will be five-star hotels, and the remaining two will house 61 condos and 16 retail & service units. Once completed, Baltic Park Molo will house more than 600 rooms and suites. The investor has obtained PLN 25m worth of EU funding for the project under the Jessica (Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas) initiative. Phase one of the project will include the Radisson Blu Resort hotel, two buildings with holiday apartments, as well as all the accompanying infrastructure. The second five-star hotel is to be added at a later point, with the entire complex to reach completion before 2020.

• PT: At what stage are the remaining segments of Baltic Park Molo and when do you expect to complete them? Jan Wróblewski: As far as the two apartment buildings are concerned, the general contractor entered the site in September 2013 and completed the shells of the buildings in May this year. Currently work is underway on electrical installation and insulation. The first guests will be able to stay there in the summer of 2015. This part of the project includes 61 condos and a handful of retail and service units. We have only two apartments left, which means that 97% have been sold, but we are in talks with the prospective buyers for these two remaining ones. • PT: What is the estimated capex on the entire complex and how is Zdrojowa Invest financing the development? JW: We estimate that it will cost some PLN 250m to complete the entire Baltic Park Molo, excluding the pier. We have so far obtained PLN 25m worth of EU funding for the project, and other sources of financing will include BOŚ bank loans and our own resources.


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• PT: How many holiday apartments have you built and sold so far, in total? JW: Our four-star projects in Kołobrzeg, Sand Hotel with 148 rooms and Marine Hotel with 231 rooms have been fully sold-out and currently we are only handling the secondary market on those. The same goes for the Ultra Marine project in Kołobrzeg with 46 rooms. At Cristal Resort in Szklarska Poręba we have 3 units left out of total 61 apartments with kitchenettes. Likewise, three apartments are left at Boulevard Ustronie Morskie, where a total of 48 condos have been built. At the five-star Diune Hotel and Resort in Kołobrzeg, we have so far sold a half of the available 61 condos, but sales launched as recently as November 2013 after Zdrojowa took over the project. And as I mentioned already, we have sold all but two of the 61 holiday apartments with kitchenettes at Baltic Park Molo in Świnoujście, where sales of hotel rooms are yet to begin. Summing up, standard rooms in hotels and tworoom condos in holiday apartment buildings sell the fastest and that's why they dominate our portfolio. Investments of up to PLN 400,000 are currently the most popular and customers generally spend no more than PLN 550,000 per unit.

• PT: What's next in your pipeline? JW: At the moment we are focusing on our flagship project: Baltic Park Molo in Świnoujście. We have a handful of other investment in the pipeline, but we would rather not disclose any details at this stage.

• PT: Are there many foreigners among your clients? JW: Foreigners represent only a tiny fraction of our customers, although in the case of Baltic Park Molo we are hoping to sell more condo units to buyers from abroad. Holiday home investments attract mainly well-off Poles, usually people who already own a number real estate assets. Most transactions are settled in cash, although mortgage loans are available for our product. A lot of new clients come through recommendations, and we also have a number of returning customers, some of whom own several apartments in different projects, at the seaside and in the mountains.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. founded in 1884 from the merger of Mitsui lines and Osaka Shosen Kaisha is one of the largest shipping corporations in the world. Headquartered in Tokyo, the group employs around 10,000 people over 400 locations and operates some 950 vessels with a total DWT of 67m tons. The group’s activities are spread over all shipping sectors such as tankers, bulkers, LNG carriers, container vessels, car carrier ships but also logistics, terminals, real estate and insurance.

sionals in logistics and shipping on the market, which will enable us to provide a high level of service for our customers," said Reiner Zimbalski, General Manager of the MOL's unit in Gdańsk.

SERVICES & BPO

Japanese shipping firm to establish European SSC in Gdańsk Poland's coastal city of Gdańsk has attracted a yet another outsourcing project in recent weeks, this time from as far away as the Far East. One of the world's largest shipping companies, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has picked Gdańsk as a location for a shared services centre that will serve its European subsidiary MOL Europe. The company will take up 800 sq.m in Aurum Tower, part of the Alchemia business park, built by the local developer Torus, under a five-year lease.

"The shared service center we are setting up in Gdańsk will be a key part of our operation, handling cargo planning, booking processing and equipment (container) management services for Europe. The choice of Tricity was not a coincidence. There are many profes-

Gdańsk's Alchemia business park has attracted another business services centre. Image: Torus

TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS

Immofinanz exiting Poland's logistics sector, sector, sells Bokserska Distribution Park As part of its strategic exit from the logistics sector in Poland and the Czech Republic, the Austrian real estate group Immofinanz has sold two properties: Bokserska Distribution Park in Warsaw and Westpoint Distribution Park in Prague for a combined EUR 33.2m. "Our investments in the Czech Republic are now concentrated in the retail and office asset classes. In Po-


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land, we currently hold two other logistics properties that are designated for sale over the medium-term," explains Eduard Zehetner, CEO of Immofinanz Group. "Our focus for the development of logistics properties lies on the core markets of Germany, Romania and Russia." Bokserska Distribution Park, which was acquired by a British family office UK & European Investments, is located in a logistics area in the south of Warsaw and has roughly 17,500 sq.m of total space. The building was constructed in 2001, is fully rented and has excellent connections to the traffic network. The 64,000-sq.m Westpoint Distribution Park, which was built in the 1970s, was acquired by Central Group, a Czech investor.

they plan to build a shopping center with a GLA of approx. 30,000 sq.m. The investment is expected to total EUR 50m, with completion being scheduled for the first half of 2015, Immofinanz said. Immofinanz's recent completions include a STOP.SHOP. retail park in Mława, their second in Poland, with another one, in Kętrzyn to be opened in the coming weeks. Overall, the developer seeks to build ten STOP.SHOP. projects in Poland over the coming years. Besides shopping centers, Immofinanz Group's ongoing investments in Poland include the Nimbus office building (19,000 sq.m of GLA) in Warsaw, and residential projects Riverpark in Poznań (189 apartments) and Dębowe Tarasy in Katowice (phase three with 317 apartments). The Vienna-listed company, which carried out a secondary listing in Warsaw last year, has recently completed one of the largest ever deals on Poland's property market with the EUR 412m sale of Silesia City Center retail property in Katowice to an international consortium of investors led by Allianz. Silesia City Center has about 340 stores with combined floor space of 89,000 sq.m, all of which is occupied.

The new owner of Warsaw's Bokserska Distribution Park is UK & European Investments. Image: C&W

Immofinanz focusing on the construction of its flagship retail development in Poland – Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin. Scheduled to open in Q4 2014, the EUR 95m shopping and entertainment project will comprise up to 38,000 sq.m of rentable space divided into ca. 150 retail units. It has also teamed up with Polish developer Rank Progress on a 23,800-sq.m retail project in Piła, which will likewise open in Q4 2014. The company has also announced a new retail project in southern town of Stalowa Wola, 60 km north of Rzeszów, where

Since its founding in 1990, Immofinanz has compiled a portfolio that now comprises more than 1,600 investment properties with a carrying amount of approx. EUR 7.4bn. The company concentrates on development management and sale of commercial properties in top locations. Immofinanz Group concentrates its activities in the retail, office, logistics and residential segments of eight regional core markets: Austria, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Poland and Russia.

TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS

Panattoni begins new project in Upper Silesia US-owned industrial space developer Panattoni Europe has embarked on a brand new investment in the Upper Silesian town of Sosnowiec. Once finalized, the new Panattoni Park Sosnowiec is to include four buildings with a combined space of 90,000 sq.m.

Largest new leases in 2013 Region

Park

Sq.m

Tenant

Wrocław Amazon BTS

123,000 Amazon

Poznań

Amazon BTS

101,000 Amazon

Wrocław Amazon BTS

101,000 Amazon

Poznań

Poznań Logistics Centre II

82,000 ITM

Central

BTS Castorama Stryków

50,000 Castorama

Wrocław Prologis Park Wrocław V

35,000 Eko Holding

Opole

BTS Polaris Opole

34,000 Polaris

Poznań

Segro Logistics Park Poznań

32,000 Volkswagen

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, warehousefinder.pl Q4 2013

Phase one of the project, which is currently under construction, will offer 21,900 sq.m including 900 sq.m of office space. The park is located on the S1 expressway and near the A4 motorway, which makes for a convenient connection to the cities of Southern Poland and the rest of the country. Another advantage, according to Panattoni, is the park's location just 10km from the Euroterminal Sławków railway hub that links wide gauge track from Russia and China with Europe's narrow gauge network. The highly industrialized Upper Silesia is one of Poland's fastest developing regions as well as an excep-


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 10

tionally attractive logistics hub providing access to the Silesian Agglomeration with its population of 4.5m and other cities of southern Poland, including Kraków. Recent improvement in road infrastructure have provided easy connections to Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia, attracting scores of new investors. . In the Business FT 2012 ranking, the nearby Katowice Economic Zone was named as Europe's second and the world's eleventh best economic zone.

RETAIL CHAINS

Lidl is building its 8th Polish distribution centre in Bydgoszcz Work is in full swing on German food discounter Lidl's 8th Polish distribution centre in Bydgoszcz. Located on a 17ha site, the 43,700 sq.m facility will launch at the beginning of 2015 with a staff of 200 as well as a number of related administrative positions.

Once fully built-up, Panattoni Park Sosnowiec will include four buildings with a combined space of 90,000 sq.m.. Image: Panattoni

Including the new project, Panattoni has more than 300,000 sq.m of industrial and warehouse space under construction in Poland in projects with a combined value of roughly EUR 200m, including two facilities for Amazon in Poznań and near Wrocław. Since the beginning of this year, the developer has de-livered more than 100,000 sq.m of space in projects dedicated to such companies as Castorama Polska (50,000 sq.m) and Polaris (33,600 sq.m).

Currently Lidl operates seven distribution centers across Poland, including Jankowice (near Poznań), Rusocin (near Gdańsk), Gliwice (Katowice region), Stryków (Łódź), Legnica (Wrocław), Brzozówka (Tarnów), and Turzyn (Warsaw). As far as its retail network expansion is concerned, Lidl targets attractive locations in towns and cities of more than 8,000 inhabitants. The company prefers investment sites of minimum 3,000 sq.m or buildings with available space of 400 sq.m and parking area for at least 60 vehicles. Lidl operates more than 500 outlets throughout Poland. With a staff of 13,000 the chain turned over PLN 10.5bn last year, marking a 23% increase y/y. "As part of our expansion plan we are opening a few dozen new stores every year in various locations throughout the country. Our logistics infrastructure is being developed in line with our needs," Lidl's spokesperson Patrycja Kamińska told Poland Today. "As far as new positions are concerned, we are planning to recruit a total of 2,000 employees this year alone, in our stores, distribution facilities, and head office." Lidl belongs to Germany's Schwarz group, which operates also the Kaufland hypermarkets. In the finan-

cial year ended 28 February 2014, Lidl's global turnover totaled EUR 54m, up from EUR 48.9bn in the prior year. As of end of February the total number of Lidl stores worldwide stood at 9,875.

RETAILERS

Retail group EM&F suspends bond issue as investors lose appetite for junkjunk-rated debt Polish retailer NFI Empik Media & Fashion (EM&F) last week suspended a massive EUR 240m (USD 322m) bond issue due to what the company referred to as "adverse market conditions." The Warsawlisted was hoping to sell the debt with a yield of 8.5% to 8.75%, which according to Bloomberg would have made them the most-expensive senior-secured securities sold this year worldwide. Unfortunately for EM&F, whose fashion business generated huge losses last year, amid intensifying risks from Ukraine to the Middle East, the investors seem to be losing appetite for junk bonds. EMF, rated six steps below investment grade at Moody’s Investors Service, is seeking to refinance PLN 1.46bn (USD 470m) in short-term debt, the company said in a July 25 statement. According to observers, EMF missed the best moment to sell Eurobonds. Besides the growing global political risk, investors have been pulling out of higher-yielding assets on concerns over the timing of US Federal Reserve tightening. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index slid 0.9% last month, trimming gains for the year to 4.9%. The last time the index fell was August 2013. High-yield, high-risk, or junk, debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and lower


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 11

than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s. Global high-yield corporate bonds handed investors a 1.9% loss in the past month, according to Bloomberg. EM&F and its majority shareholders (the Eastbridge Group and the CEE private equity fund Penta Investments) postponed the offering ”due to adverse developments in market conditions" and will continue to monitor the situation while it reviews other refinancing options, the company said in last week's statement. Overall, the EM&F group turned over PLN 3.037bn last year, marking a 2% increase on the prior year, but its net loss deepened from a mere PLN 6m in 2012 down to PLN 300m in 2013. Their EBITDA on continued operations increased slightly last year and came to PLN 276m. In the January-April period the group's net loss widened to PLN 49.7m from PLN 17.3m a year earlier, the company said on July 25. Besides the Empik stores, which sell books, multimedia, gifts and home goods, both in brick & mortar outlets and online,EM&F operates also leading children's goods retailers Smyk (143 stores in Poland, Russia, Germany. Czech Republic, Turkey, and Ukraine) and Spiele Max (56 locations in Germany), 113 language schools, sportswear wholesale business (Optimum Group) and 118 fashion outlets, including 61 in Poland. The fashion arm generated losses of PLN 371m in 2013 and 110m in 2012, prompting EM&F to abandon this part of its business, looking for its franchise partners or new investors to take over the GAP, River Island, New Look, Aldo, Esprit and River Island chains in Poland, Russia and Ukraine. Apart from the huge losses it generated, the company's fashion business has seen its sales shrink rapidly in recent quarters. Last year it contracted by 19% y/y, down to PLN 307m, including a 45% drop in Q4 2013.

A few weeks ago the Empik chain launched its 200th location and company representatives told Poland Today they wanted to add a further 15 new locations to the chain by the end of the year, both in large cities such as Warsaw and Kraków, as well as smaller towns, where Empik will make its first appearance (for instance Mława, Brodnica, Grójec or Kutno). Empik is pushing a new "Express" format, with stores measuring between 100 and 200 sq.m, smaller than traditional Empik outlets. So far the company has opened eight shops under that formula and additional few are to be launched later this year. However, with Amazon launching huge distribution centers in Poland this year and rumors of their imminent entry to the Polish market, Empik may soon have to face a ruthless global competitor.

"The outlet centre market has its own dynamic as the number of stores a given retailer can open in this formula depends on the size of their store network for each brand. Outlets grow gradually as retail networks expand. This is why we had to alter our initial plan of launching both centers in one year. We had to adjust to our tenants and their capabilities as well as the availability of collections and we decided to spread the openings over time. As a result, Lublin will welcome its first clients this year, with Białystok to follow later," Ewa Spychalska, property management director at ADV Por Property Investment tells Poland Today.

RETAIL PROPERTIES

Construction of Outlet Center Białystok begins; begins; Lublin project to open by yearyear-end This month Polish developer ADV Por Property Investment is breaking ground on its second retail investment in eastern Poland, Outlet Center Białystok. The company has just obtained a valid building permit for the project which constitutes part of the city's largest retail park that includes also a Castorama DIY store, Biedronka grocery and Makro Cash & Carry wholesale outlet. ADV's first project, the Outlet Centre in Lublin, is nearing completion on Mełgiewska St., one of the city's main thoroughfares. Two years ago, when the investor first announced the two projects, it was hoping to launch them by 2014.

Two-thirds of available space at Outlet Center Białystok was pre-leased before the start of construction. Image: CBRE

The Lublin project will house a total of 70 stores across 12,500 sq.m of GLA. Phase one, to be opened by the end of 2014, will include approximately 50 outlets. The adjacent parking lot will offer 800 spaces. The 13,300 sq.m Outlet Center Białystok is part of a 36,000 sq.m retail park with 1,500 parking spaces. According to estimates, some 1.2m potential clients live within a 90min drive from the planned Outlet Białystok, which besides local shoppers will target also customers from Russia, Lithuania and Belarus.


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 12

"In Lublin an estimated 70% of GLA has been preleased to-date, and we are in talks with further tenants. In Białystok the figure tops 65% even before the start of construction, which we regard as a huge success considering the current market conditions. Although initially we had intended to split the construction in Białystok into three stages, due to high demand on the part of prospective tenants, the first two phases will be delivered simultaneously," says Ms. Spychalska. In Białystok ADV has inked lease deals with the likes of Adidas, Cat, Converse, Cropp, Dajar, Diverse, Hexeline, Lavard, Merrell, McArthur, Mohito, Adidas, Ochnik, Puma, Reebok, Reserved, Sinsay and Tup Tup, many of which will also open stores in the Lublin center.

"We are planning further outlet center projects in Poland. Their locations will be selected based on market research as well as the feedback we get from tenants. We have very advanced expansion plans for this concept, which we plan to unveil at September's edition of Shopping Center Forum."

POLITICS & ECONOMY

Government names 22 strategic statestate-held companies The Polish government has identified 22 companies that will remain under the Treasury control due to their strategic importance, as well as 190 fully and partially-state-owned businesses that are designated for sale, a document published last week by the Treasury Ministry shows. "The ministry's priority will be, on the one hand, to professionalize supervision and build value of entities that are crucial to the country's economic security, and, on the other, reducing state exposure in those areas where it is no more essential," the ministry's communiqué reads.

Outlet Center Lublin will open this year with 50 stores. Image: CBRE

Both outlet centers (Lublin & Białystok) are being commercialized by the property consultancy CBRE, with AGMET as general contractor and Tebodin providing project management services. ADV Por Property Investment belongs to the FIZ FORUM XVIII investment fund.

The strategic assets include industrial development agency ARP, banks BGK and PKO BP, defense group PGZ, refiners Grupa Lotos and PKN Orlen, energy groups PGE and Tauron, insurer PZU, oil logistics firms PERN Przyjaźń and Naftoport, gas company PGNiG, fertilizer maker Grupa Azoty, copper miner KGHM, security printing works PWPW, broadcasters Polskie Radio and Telewizja Polska, lottery operator Totalizator Sportowy, seaport operators in Gdańsk, Gdynia and Świnoujście as well as investment

firm PIR. There are no surprises on this list save for, perhaps, Grupa Azoty, which recently has been subject to hostile takeover attempts by a Russian competitor. As far as the remaining state-held assets are concerned, the government will prioritize IPO-based privatization via the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The most prominent items on the list of 190 businesses that are still up for grabs, are listed power groups Enea and Energa, along with listed coal miner Bogdanka, a coking unit of listed coking coal miner JSW, listed real estate group PHN and airlines PLL LOT & Eurolot.

IN BRIEF: Standard & Poor’s affirmed its rating at A-/A-2 for longand short-term foreign currency and A/A-1 for longand short-term local currency sovereign credit for Poland, with stable outlook on the country’s steady growth prospects, the agency said in a statement issued last week. “The ratings on Poland are supported by its strong, increasingly open, and competitive economy. We estimate GDP per capita at USD 14,500 in 2014 and expect this to rise consistently on the back of broad-based and balanced economic growth”, S&P said in the statement. The rating agency expects Poland's real GDP growth to reach 3.1% in 2014, and accelerate to 3.8% from 2015, assuming the fallout from the Ukrainian civil war and EU sanctions on Russia remain limited.


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 13

KEY STATISTICS Consumer Prices Prices

Inflation

-0.3

Alcohol, tobacco +3.7

+0.7 +3.9 +0.3 +3.9 +0.2 +4.0

+0.1

Clothing, shoes

-4.3

+0.8

Housing

+1.8

Transport

-4.4 +2.8

-4.6

-0.1

-4.7

-0.8

-0.1

+1.7

0.0

+1.6

0.0

+1.6

-0.1

-0.1 -0.4

-0.6

-0.2

-2.7

+0.1

-2.1

-0.1

Communications -0.3

+0.6

-1.7

-1.5

Gross CPI

+0.1 +0.3 0.0

+0.7

-1.1

-0.1

+0.2 -0.1

+1.3 +2.4 +0.3

Feb '14 -0.6

+12.5

+2.3

-2.7

-1.1

y/y (%)

+7.0

+3.1

+8.4

+3.8

+1.2 2013

Year

2009

2010

2011

2012

Turnover in PLNbn

582.8

593.0

646.1

676.0

n/a

+4.3

+5.5

+11.6

+5.6

+2.3

Residential Construction Dwellings

0.0

Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14

m/m (%)

y/y (%) Jun 14

-0.9

Apr 14

-0.8 -0.4

Feb 14

-0.5

m/m

Dec 13

-0.3 +0.3

Oct 13

+1.2

y/y

Aug 13

Food & bev

Month

5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Jun 13

y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m

Apr 13

Sector

Retail Turnover

Feb 13

Jun '14

Dec 12

May '14

Oct 12

Apr '14

Jun 12

Mar '14

Aug 12

Data in (%)

2009 2010

2011

2012

2013 Jan-Jun y/y 2014

(%)

178.8

174.9

184.1

165.1

138.7

76.5

+12.8

158.1

162.2

141.8

127.4

72.3

+22.5

(in '000 units)

Producer Prices Prices

Industrial Output Output

Permits Commenced

142.9

m/m (%)

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

m/m (%)

-9.7

+2.9

-1.8

+9.4

-2.3

-1.7

-0.1

U. construction

670.3 692.7 723.0

713.1 694.0 700.9

-0.4

y/y (%)

-1.0

-1.0

-1.4

-1.3

-0.7

-1.0

-1.7

y/y (%)

+6.6

+4.1

+5.3

+5.4

+5.4

+4.4

+1.7

Completed

160.0 135.7

152.5

-2.4

Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)

y/y (%)

+2.0

+2.2

+3.4

+2.1

+7.6

+3.3

-1.3

y/y (%)

+10.7

+3.6

-3.5

+9.8

+7.7

+1.0

+2.2

Gross Domestic Product

Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-1.7

-1.7

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.3

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

+7.4

+4.8

+0.2

-0.1

+1.0

+0.2

-1.8

A: avg monthly wages in PLN B: indexed avg wages, 100=2005 Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

A

A

B

A

A

138

8,615

397,429

-1.1%

455,528

-1.3%

Q3 2013

+2.0%

405,554

-1.9%

Q2 2013

+0.8%

296,314

-2.3%

2013

+1.6%

1,635,746

-1.3%

2012

+1.9%

1,596,379

-3.7%

Sentiment Indicators

2011

+4.5%

1,528,127

-5.0%

Economic sentiment and consumer confidence indicators

2010

+3.9%

1,416,585

-5.1%

+24.2

+3.2

+14.0

+16.9

y/y (%)

+5.8

-3.9

+14.4

+17.4

+12.2

+10.0

+8.0

Year

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

y/y (%)

+15.5

+12.1

+5.1

+4.6

+11.8

-0.6

B

-12.0

196 6,333 144

Manufacturing

3,560

155 3,625

158 3,690

161 3,663 160

0

Energy

5,828

177 6,021

183 6,736 205 6,358 193

-20

157 3,766 160 3,895 145 3,456 3,913

80

166 3,706 158 147 3,544

151

Transportation

3,547

125 3,589

127

IT, telecoms

6,707

174 6,654

173 6,695

174 6,986

Financial sector 6,702

151 6,109

137 6,602

148 6,749 152

National average 3,613 144 3,652

145 3,823

152 3,895 155

Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)

100

138 3,666 130 181

-40

60 J ul 1 4

3,421 146 3,408

120

Apr 14

3,693

Retail & repairs

O ct 11

Construction

Co nsumer conf id ence (lef t axis) Economic sentiment (right axis)

20

J an 1 4

143 6,061

B

Oct 13

6,290

B

Current account def. in % of GDP

+2.7%

+18.7

J ul 13

Coal mining

Q2 2013

GDP in PLN bn current prices

66.3

+3.4%

-64.0

Apr 13

Sector

146.1

Q4 2013

+21.5

Source: The Central Statistical Office of Poland, GUS

Gross Gross Wages

Growth y/y unadjusted

131.7

Q1 2014

m/m (%)

J an 13

y/y (%)

-0.2

Period

Dec '13 Jan '14 Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14

Oc t 12

Year

-0.1

Month

J ul 12

y/y (%)

Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14

Ap r 12

m/m (%)

Dec '13 Jan '14 Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14

Construction Output

Construction Prices Price s Month

Month

Jan 12

Month

The economic sentiment (1990-2010 average = 100) is a composite made up of 5 sectoral confidence indicators, which are arithmetic means of seasonally adjusted balances of answers to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variable. Source: Eurostat

Key Economic Data & Projections Indicator

2010

GDP change

+3.9% +4.5%

+1.9%

+1.6%

+3.5%

Consumer inflation

+2.6% +4.3%

+3.7%

+0.9%

+0.3%

Producer inflation

+2.1% +7.6%

+3.4%

-1.3%

-1.4%

CA balance, % of GDP

-5.1%

-5.0%

-3.7%

-1.3%

-0.6%

Nominal gross wage

+3.9%

+5.2%

+3.7%

+3.4%

+4.3%

Unemployment**

12.4%

12.5%

13.4%

13.4%

12.2%

3.99

4.12

4.19

4.20

4.12

EUR/PLN

2011

2012

2013

*2014

Sources: NBP, BZ WBK, PKO BP, GUS *) projections **) year-end


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 14

100 DKK

56.59 ↑

100 SEK

45.57 ↑

10,000 JPY

USD EUR

350

300

50.38 ↑ 309.55 ↑ 15.16 ↑

100 CZK 10,000 HUF

400

26 Aug 13

100 NOK

133.82 ↑

as of 8 August 2014

WIG-20 stocks Price Change Change in alphabetical 8 Aug 1 Aug end of order '14 '13 '14

WIG Total index

Money Supply

PLN (up to 1 year)

4.2%

4.5%

4.5%

4.4%

4.4%

4.5%

PLN (up to 5 y )

4.9%

4.8%

4.9%

4.8%

4.8%

4.8%

PLN (over 5 y)

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

→ Asseco Pol.

PLN (total)

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

4.7%

↓ Bogdanka

EUR (up to 1m EUR) 2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

↓ BZ WBK

EUR (over 1m EUR) 3.6%

3.4%

3.3%

3.0%

2.7%

3.4%

↓ Eurocash

Overnight

1 week

1 month

3 months

6 months

2.63%

2.60%

2.60%

2.67%

2.69%

Central Bank (NBP) Base Rates

in PLN m

Mar '14

Apr '14

May '14

Jun '14

Monetary base

173,213

168,511

162,246

173,096

2.59%

- Currency outside banks M2

↓ Alior Bank

Warsaw Inter Bank Offered Rate (WIBOR) as of 8 August 2014

Reference

M1

Jan '14 Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14 Jun '14

558,954 116,657 964,624

548,394

557,651

119,261

119,649

969,754

572,376 120,828

975,001 980,090

- Time deposits

422,990

439,137

435,386

426,351

M3

980,377

986,142

991,120

996,171

- Net foreign assets 132,849 126,943 142,260 144,033 Monetary base: Polish currency emitted by the central bank and money on accounts held with it. M1= currency outside banks + demand deposits M2= M1+ time deposits (inc in foreign currencies) M3= the broad measure of money supply Source: NBP

Lombard

NBP deposit

Rediscount

4.00%

1.00%

2.75%

49,593. 49,593.68

77

-3%

-5%

41.4

0%

-10%

Change 1 week

-4% ↓

111.25

-2%

-12%

Change end of '13

-5% ↓

352

-2%

-9% WIG-20 blue chip index

36.4

-2%

-24%

↓ Grupa Lotos

35.22

-3%

-1%

↓ JSW

36.01

-13%

-32%

2,3 2,315. 15.65

↓ Kernel

27.39

-5%

-28%

Change 1 week

-1% ↓

↓ KGHM

127.8

-1%

+8%

Change end of '13

-4% ↓

7353.1

-4%

-18%

↓ mBank

446

-4%

-11%

WIG Total closing index

↓ Orange Pol.

9.98

-4%

+2%

last three months

169

-1%

-6%

54,000

20.91

0%

+28%

53,000 52,000

↓ LPP

Credit

↓ Pekao

The financial sector's net lending in PLN bn,

→ PGE

loan stock at the end of period

↓ PGNiG

4.73

-3%

-8%

↑ PKN Orlen

37.5

2%

-9%

51,000

+1%

-7%

50,000 49,000

Type of loan

Mar' 14

Apr' 14

May' 14

Jun' 14

923,709

928,450

930,652

940,703

↓ PKO BP

36.79

- to private companies

267,553

270,886

273,360

276,709

→ PZU

443.5

0%

-1%

- to households

569,334

573,332

574,800

578,639

↑ Synthos

4.58

+2%

-16%

Total assets of banks

1,628,519 1,639,359 1,660,583 1,667,783

→ Tauron

4.96

0%

+17%

Loans to customers

Source: Central Bank NBP

8 Aug 14

347.64 ↑

Warsaw Stock Exchange, rates in PLN

on loans to non-financial corporations

17 Jul 14

529.48 ↑

100 CHF

8 Aug 14

100 GBP

2 Jun 14

421.84 ↑

24 Mar 14

100 EUR

Key indices

Term / currency

450

15 Jan 14

315.09 ↑

31 Oct 13

100 USD

Stock Exchange

Average weighted annual interest rates

25 Jun 14

as of 8 August 2014

Interest rates

2 Jun 14

100 USD/EUR against PLN

Central Bank average rates

25 Apr 14

Currency

Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange

T rade Poland's ten largest trading partners, ranked according to 2013

Poland exports and imports according to commodity groups, according to SITC classification EXPORTS in PLN bn Jan-May 2014

y/y (%)

share (%)

2013

EXPORTS in PLNbn

IMPORTS in PLN bn share (%)

Jan-May 2014

y/y (%)

share (%)

2013

share (%)

No Country

Jan-Jun share 2014

IMPORTS in PLN bn 2013

share No

Country

Jan-Jun share 2014

2013

share

30,403

+10.6

10.9

69,304

10.9

20,794

+5.7

7.5

47,906

7.4

1 Germany

86,686 25.9% 162,548 25.1%

1 Germany

72,536 21.6%

3,667

+10.9

1.3

8,624

1.4

1,612

+1.0

0.6

4,150

0.6

2 UK

20,918

2 Russia

38,637 11.5% 79,578 12.1%

Crude materials except fuels

7,057

+3.4

2.5

15,744

2.5

9,065

-1.0

3.3

21,585

3.3

3 Czech Rep.

20,265

6.1%

40,110

6.2%

3 China

32,589 9.7%

Fuels etc

11,896

-2.0

4.3

30,013

4.7

31,333

+6.0

11.2

75,539

11.7

4 France

19,152

5.7%

36,367

5.6%

4 Italy

Food and live animals Beverages and tobacco

6.2%

42,138

6.5%

142,161 21.7% 61,127 9.3%

17,731 5.3% 34,940 5.3%

811

+33.7

0.3

1,864

0.2

1,071

+1.0

0.4

2,646

0.4

5 Russia

14,707

4.4% 34,069

5.3%

5 Netherlands

12,512 3.7% 25,409 3.9%

Chemical products

25,517

+5.5

9.1

59,103

9.3

41,641

+8.2

15.1

92,917

14.3

6 Italy

15,552

4.6%

4.3%

6 France

13,152 3.9%

Manufactured goods by material

55,193

+3.5

19.8

129,915

20.3

49,473

+8.4

17.7

112,392

17.3

7 Netherlands

13,366 4.0%

7 Czech Rep.

11,451 3.4% 24,054 3.7%

Machinery, transport equip.

107,483

+10.9

38.5

239,434

37.5

91,562

+5.1

32.8

216,608

33.4

8 Ukraine

6,174

1.8%

18,020

2.8%

8 USA

8,142 2.4%

17,431

Other manufactured articles

36,803

+13.3

13.2

82,816

13.0

26,343 +15.3

9.5

58,210

9.0

9 Sweden

9,661

2.9%

17,581

2.7%

9 UK

8,746 2.6%

17,184 2.6%

320

n/a

0.1

1,782

0.2

5,977

n/a

1.9

16,242

2.6

10 Slovakia

8,371

2.5%

17,099

8,319

15,137 2.3%

100

278,871

+6.1

100

648,195

100

Animal and vegetable oils

Not classified TOTAL

279,150

+8.3

100

638,599

27,958

25,707 4.0%

Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)

2.6% 10 Belgium

2.5%

25,041 3.8% 2.7%


weekly newsletter # 047 / 11th August 2014 / page 15

Industrial Industrial Properties

Regional Data Industrial output Jan-Jun 2014 *

Poland's regions (main cities indicated

Indus-

in brackets)

Monthly wages (PLN) Jan-Jun 2014**

Unemployment Jun 2014

Constru- Indus- Constru-in '000

try

ction

try

%

ction

New dwellings Jan-Jun 2014

Existing stock, sq.m

by region, Q4 2013

Num- Index *

Warsaw central

ber

VaEffective Under const cancy rents EUR/ ruction, sq.m ratio sq.m/mth

563,000

17,000

Warsaw suburbs 2,063,000

22.3%

3.6–5.1

12.5%

2.1–2.8

101.5

117.2

4,379

4,173

134.5

11.7

6,561

81.1

Central Poland

1,021,000

80,000

15.2%

2.1–3.3

Kujawsko-Pomorskie (Bydgoszcz) 106.6

120.7

3,432

3,239

132.1

16.2

2,956

91.3

Poznań

1,023,000

215,000

4.4%

2.5–3.15

Upper Silesia

1,431,000

37,000

9.3%

2.4–3.3

Wrocław

780,000

259,000

11.7%

2.6–3.1

Tri-city

184,000

46,000

9.2%

2.8–3.3

Kraków

141,000

0

4.0%

3.3-4.0

Dolnośląskie (Wrocław) Lubelskie (Lublin) Lubuskie (Zielona Góra) Łódzkie (Łódź)

105.0

83.8

3,734

3,035

118.8

13.0

2,350

81.1

115.8

110.0

3,454

3,055

50.5

13.5

1,415

90.9

100.3

119.1

3,702

3,267

137.3

12.8

3,054

102.6

99.4

107.8

3,822

3,345

145.4

10.4

7,591

94.6

Mazowieckie (Warszawa)

103.5

112.0

4,628

5,084

261.7

10.2

14,266

109.3

Opolskie (Opole)

106.7

127.4

3,635

3,496

45.3

12.7

896

120.8

Podkarpackie (Rzeszów)

105.5

116.6

3,421

3,086

136.6

14.7

2,943

99.8

Podlaskie (Białystok)

106.6

120.0

3,310

3,768

62.9

13.6

1,950

133.5

110.5

123.6

4,021

3,427

100.3

11.8

4,592

86.4

Małopolskie (Kraków)

Pomorskie (Gdańsk-Gdynia)

Commercial Properties New apartments* Q1 '14

City

PLN/sq.m

Offices 2H'13

Retail rents**2H'13

Change Headline Vacancy Retail y/y

rents**

ratio

High

centres streets

Śląskie (Katowice)

101.1

110.8

4,588

3,533

189.0

10.2

5,199

100.0

Warsaw

8,005

-0.1%

11.5-25.5

11.75%

80-90

Świętokrzyskie (Kielce)

112.0

104.1

3,414

3,264

79.5

14.8

1,355

119.3

Kraków

6,419

+1.8%

13-15

4.90%

35-45

78

Warmińsko-Mazurskie (Olsztyn)

105.3

104.2

3,292

3,101

98.7

19.0

1,976

92.9

Katowice

5,531

0.0%

13-14

7.30%

35-45

56

Wielkopolskie (Poznań)

106.9

111.9

3,765

3,662

124.5

8.3

6,709

102.7

Poznań

6,666

+4.0%

14-16

14.20%

35-45

55

Zachodniopomorskie (Szczecin)

102.2

100.5

3,533

3,423

95.2

15.7

2,514

93.9

Łódź

4,808

-1.8%

12-14

14.40%

35-45

25

National average

104.3

112.1

4,009

3,795 1,912.6

12.0 66,327

97.6

Wrocław

5,928

-0.2%

13-15.5

11.75%

35-45

40

Gdańsk

6,031

-5.7%

13-15

11.20%

35-45

31

*) Index 100 = same period of the previous year. ** without social taxes Sources: Central Statistical Office GUS, NBP, C&W

85

*avg, offer-based ** EUR/sq.m/month; Retail units 100-150 sq.m

Poland Today Sp. z o. o. ul. Złota 61 lok. 100, 00–819 Warsaw, Poland tel/fax: +48 22 464 82 69 mobile: +48 694 922 898, +48 602 214 603 www.poland-today.pl Business Review+ Editor Lech Kaczanowski office: +48 22 412 41 69 mobile: +48 607 079 547 lech.kaczanowski@poland-today.pl

Foreign Direct Investment (EUR m) Q4 '12

Q1 '13

Q2 '13

Q3 '13

Q4 '13

Q1 '14

in Poland

2,886

175

-3,020

1,885

-2,899

2,771

Polish DI

-1,203

957

2,588

-1,449

1,575

562

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

in Poland

10,128

9,343

10,507

14,896

4,763

-4,574

Polish DI

-3,072

-3,335

5,484

-5,935

-607

3,684

-5,175

2,309

1,094

151

1,159

4,048

4,642

5,249

1,032 1,257

1,245

-18,519 -14,191 -4,984 -2,086 -1,415

-766

-3.7%

2013 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

-1.3%

-1.9% -1.3%

-1.1%

stable

Standard & Poor's

A-

stable

Moody's

A2

stable

9

6 months- EUR 375 (PLN 1480) 3 months- EUR 245 (PLN 980) Sales Director James Anderson-Hanney

Real Earnings

2,000

1,800

6

Source: NBP, BZ WBK, PKO BP Source: Central Statistical Office GUS

Wage

180 160 140 120 100 Jun 10

Feb 11

Oct 11

Business Review+ Subscription 1 year- EUR 690 (PLN 2760)

mobile: +48 881 650 600

Average gross wage vs inflation.

Q2 14

-10,059

CA balance vs GDP -5.0%

12

Q4 13

CA balance

2012

A-

Source: Rating agencies

Q2 13

Services, net

2011

outlook

2,400

Q4 12

Trade balance

15

2,200

Current Account (EUR m) Period

number (left axis) % (right axis)

2,600

rating

Fitch Ratings

% of population in working age

Q2 12

2008

Agency

Registered unemployed, in ‘000 and

Q4 11

Year

Unemployment

Q2 11

Quarter

Country Credit Ratings

Jun 12

james.anderson-hanney@poland-

CPI

Feb 13

Index 100 = Jan 2005. Source: GUS

Oct 13

today.pl

Jun 14

Publisher Richard Stephens Financial Director Arkadiusz Jamski Creative Director Bartosz Stefaniak New Business Consultant Tomasz Andryszczyk


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