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No. 018 / 13th January 2014 / www.poland-today.pl / magazine, conferences, portal, newsletter
HEALTHCARE British firm McKinlay Development open their first Polish retail park page 11
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING Top floorboard maker Barlinek to be delisted from Warsaw bourse page 2
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS Forwarder PEKAES expands intermodal capabilities with two major acquisitions page 8
Furniture plant closure to render 419 people jobless in Szczytno page 2
Italy's Finmeccanica wins EUR 280m jet trainer tender page 9
BANKING & FINANCE WSE capitalization sets new record in 2013 page 3
German ferry operator opens new Trelleborg-Świnoujście service page 10
Coface reports 883 bankruptcies in 2013 page 4
FOOD & AGRICULTURE Nestle & General Mills to invest PLN 50m in Toruń cereal plant page 11
ENERGY & RESOURCES PGE's giant power plant project to get underway in February page 4 With 31 Cinema City locations in the country, Poland is the company's key market. Photo: Cinema City
UK's Cineworld acquires Cinema City
British cinema operator Cineworld has agreed to acquire Warsaw-listed Cinema City International's movie theater business in Central & Eastern Europe and Israel. The GBP 0.5bn cash and share deal creates the second largest cinema chain in Europe, with 201 cinemas, and makes Cineworld the No. 1 player in Poland. page 12
tel. +48 881 650 600
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Golub GetHouse to break ground on new office project in Warsaw page 5 OVO Wrocław development back on track with opening scheduled for 2016 page 6 Vantage Development building more offices in Wrocław page 7
RETAIL & SERVICES Poland's luxury goods market to hit PLN 13bn in 2016, says KPMG page 13 POLITICS & ECONOMY Polish politician calls for Tesco boycott amid migration row with UK page 14 KEY FIGURES Up-to-date macroeconomic figures, currency & stock market data and lots of other hard-to-find info pages 15-17
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 2
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING
Top floorboard floorboard maker Barlinek to be delisted from Warsaw bourse Polish billionaire Michał Sołowow is squeezing out minority shareholders from the Warsaw-listed floorboard producer Barlinek. The entrepreneur, who prior to the buy-out, had held a 94% stake in the business, will become its sole owner on 14th January, 2014, after which he intends to delist Barlinek from the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Barlinek's net result in PLNm 60
Barlinek was worth more than PLN 1bn, but its capitalization has since gone down to PLN 230m. Huge profits got replaced by enormous debts (approximately PLN 500m), making creditors impatient. In 2012 the company turned over PLN 690m and posted a net loss of PLN 36m. Before the crisis, in 2007, it boasted had a PLN 59m profit on revenues of PLN 488m. Last year Sołowow engaged in talks with creditors, hoping to find a sustainable way out of the woods for the company. The banks asked the billionaire to inject Barlinek with PLN 110m in subordinate financing. Sołowow admitted in October last year that Barlinek's listed status was becoming a bit of a problem, as minority shareholders could potentially stand in the way of any bolder restructuring moves. He has therefore decided to take full control of the business, first though a buyout bid, which boosted Sołowow's stake in Barlinek from 72% to more than 94%, and then a minority squeeze-out.
20 0 -20 -40 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING
Furniture Furniture plant closure to render 419 people jobless in Sz Szczytno The pan-European furniture group IMS has decided to shut down one of its Polish manufacturing plants, resulting in 419 redundancies. The FS Favorit Furniture factory is one of the largest employers in the town of Szczytno, 150km north of Warsaw. It makes a range of furniture for the living, sleeping, and dining furniture markets. "The company does not generate profits and its overall economic situation gives little hope for the business to regain profitability in a reasonable time frame. Following an economic assessment a decision has been made on the closure of the facility," the plant's managers wrote in a letter to the local job centre. The latter's representatives told the press agency PAP that production will be maintained until April and FS Favorit Furniture indents to fulfill all of its obligations to employees and subcontractors.
40
2006
Komfort to the mix. Outside of the home improvement segment, Sołowow is the main investor behind the Warsaw-listed chemical group Synthos.
2012
Source: Barlinek
Barlinek is Poland's largest distributor of wooden flooring, skirting boards, and sawdust pellet. Its floorboards are being exported to 55 countries worldwide. Although Barlinek has maintained a strong brand and a leading position on Poland's wooden flooring market, the company was badly hit by the financial crisis, or more precisely, by the recession in the residential sector that came with the credit crunch. Back in 2007
Barlinek produces more than 9m sq.m of wooden floorboards annually.
Photo: Barlinek
Besides Barlinek, Sołowow owns Poland's top wall & floor tile and bathroom fittings maker Rovese and a few weeks ago he added the flooring & carpet retailer
The closure of the plant will leave 419 people without work, almost all of them production staff. According to Jan Dąbrowski, head of the Szczytno employment office, the region has not seen a group layoff of that size since mid-1990s. An estimated 6,340 people in the Szczytno county are jobless at the moment, which translates into an unemployment rate of 24%. The labor market in Poland's northeastern WarmińskoMazurskie region has long been the most difficult of
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 3
all of Poland, with one in five residents unable to find work. FS Favorit Furniture will have to pay back some PLN 4m worth of EU aid it had obtained for "introduction of innovative production technology," a PLN 10m project that was aimed at boosting the company's competitive position. Based in Bendern, Liechtenstein, IMS Group designs, develops and produces upholstered and wooden furniture in various styles and price categories and turns over approximately EUR 200m per annum. With distribution in more than 25 European countries, the company has more than 3,000 employees at production facilities and distribution units across Europe including, Liechtenstein, Poland, Germany, Hungary, and the Netherlands. Its Polish operations include couch maker Etap Sofa and the Bydgoszcz-based Bydgoskie Meble. IMS belongs to the New Yorkbased private equity company Berggruen Holdings.
Energo-Metal System Polska provides a wide range of machines for use primarily in the food industry, including dryers for beverage cans. The head office of Energo-Metal System Polska is located in the Gliwice section of the Katowice Special Economic Zone (SEZ), where the company has a production unit of 3,700 sq.m In addition to Gliwice, the EMS Group also operates in the United Kingdom (with a HQ in Altham, Lancashire) and China (Hogn Kong and Foshan City). "Energo-Metal System Polska is the exclusive manufacturer of dryers used in can manufacturing in Poland. The facility in Portowa Street, where it has taken up new space, is located very close to its head office. The new warehouse was opened in July 2013," Wojciech Dachniewski, senior negotiator from Cushman & Wakefield's industrial department.
Ferrostaal Automotive Group and Preymesser GmbH Group.
BANKING & FINANCE
WSE capitalization sets new record in 2013 The market capitalization of domestic and foreign entities listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange increased 15% last year and totaled PLN 840.8bn, including PLN 593.5bn worth of domestic stocks, the WSE said in an annual summary. The average daily trading volume came to PLN 891m, which represented an 18% growth. The blue chip index WIG 20 shed 7% last year, whereas the new main index WIG30, introduced in September 2013, dropped 1.8%.
WSE capitalization in PLNm, year-end* MANUFACTURING & PROCESSING
600
Machinery Machinery firm EnergoEnergo-Metal System expands Gliwice unit
Energo-Metal System Polska, a subsidiary of global machinery maker EMS (European Manufacturing Solutions) is significantly expanding its Polish unit in Gliwice near Katowice. The company has leased 2,000 sq.m of industrial and warehouse space with staff facilities at Gliwice's Portowa 74 industrial and logistics centre, reported property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield, which represented the landlord SILS Centre Gliwice.
500 400 300 200 100
EMS secures additional space in Gliwice. Photo: C&W
Portowa 74 is a modern industrial and warehouse building in the immediate vicinity of the Gliwice Subzone of the Katowice SEZ. It offers 8,000 sq.m of industrial and warehouse area and 1,000 sq.m of space for office and staff facilities. SILS Centre Gliwice, the owner of Portowa 74, belongs to Germany's
0 1997
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2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: WSE *) domestic stocks
The Warsaw bourse hosted 23 IPOs on the main market as well as 42 listings on its alternative trading platform NewConnect, which, in turn, boosted the total number of listed companies to the respective 450 and
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 4
445. NewConnect stocks (domestic and foreign) were valued at PLN 11bn as of end of last year. Initial public offerings on the main market amounted to PLN 5.135bn, whereas secondary offerings topped PLN 2.617bn. The Catalyst bond market welcomed PLN 4.379bn worth of newly issued bonds that raised its total value by 12.6% to reach PLN 58.9bn. As of end of December 2013 a total of 175 companies had their bonds listed there. Other major developments on the WSE last year included the introduction of the new Universal Trading Platform (UTP), purchased from NYSE Technologies in April and the August acquisition of a 30% stake in the UK-based trading platform Aquis Exchange Ltd, which launched at the end of November, enabling trading in top British, French and Dutch securities. The Warsaw exchange has also engaged in talks regarding a potential merger with CEESEG, which groups a number of Central European bourses, including Vienna, Prague, and Ljubljana.
Still, however, the last year saw 115% more bankruptcies than the 2008 and 22% more than the 2009, when the global economic crisis was at its worst. "The 2013 was not particularly favorable for a majority of Polish companies," commented Grzegorz Sielewicz, Coface's chief economist in Poland. "Their financial results were dented by a significant drop in private consumption, which peaked in Q1. Many businesses were forced to scale down their investment plans, with some also having to downsize employment."
"Macroeconomic figures signal that the worst is over for the Polish economy and since mid-2013 it has been returning to the growth path. However, the upturn has so far been modest and gradual," commented Coface's Grzegorz Sielewicz.
No. of bankruptcies in Poland 2,000
1,500
ENERGY & RESOURCES
1,000
500
0 1997
BANKING & FINANCE
Coface reports 883 bankruptcies in 2013 Although the number of bankruptcies in Poland increased by merely 1% last year, the 2013 was the worst year since 2005, with 883 companies going under according to Coface. The credit insurer noted, however, that the negative trend saw a much-awaited reversal in the final quarter of 2013. In Q1-Q3, there was a 10% y/y increase in bankruptcies, following a 21% rise in the whole of 2012.
Shrinking revenues were the key driver behind last year's bankruptcies, as they undercut the profitability of companies and, consequently, limited their access to financing amid growing risk aversion among banks. Coface expects Polish banks to stabilize and/or relax slightly their lending policies in 2014, which coupled with the anticipated pick-up in demand and recordlow interest rates, should improve the economic environment in Poland, resulting in fewer bankruptcies. Polish companies may again feel confident enough to start investing, the credit insurer added.
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2001
2003 2005 2007 2009
2011
2013
Source: Coface
The past 12 months proved particularly tough for the manufacturing industry, where 277 companies were declared bankrupt – an increase of 15% y/y. According to Coface, the financial problems experienced by Polish manufacturers are largely due to the crisis in the construction sector, which impacted the latter's suppliers and subcontractors. Coface data show 213 building firms go bankrupt last year, down from 218 in 2013, when their number increased by more than a half. Poland's trade and retail sector saw 214 insolvencies last year.
PGE's giant giant power plant project to get underway in February Poland's top power utility PGE approved a program of internal financing for the PLN 11.6bn investment in Opole, which enables the company to launch the construction of two coal-fired 900 MW power units on February 1, in line with the schedule, PGE said. The new power units are to be operational approximately five years later. Announced back in 2012 as the largest ever project in Poland's energy sector, the planned expansion of PGE's Opole power plant has since suffered a number of setbacks due to protests from environmental activists, problems with contractors and doubts over the economic feasibility of the entire undertaking. The
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 5
contract was initially awarded to a Polish consortium of Polimex-Mostostal, Mostostal-Warszawa, and Rafako, but after the main contractor PolimexMostostal barely escaped bankruptcy and had to be rescued by the state-owned Industrial Development Agency ARP, one of the subcontractors, France's Alstom, came to the rescue and helped secure financing for the project.
of new coal-fired units, even though the country lacks a viable clean domestic alternative to coal, despite a robust growth of the country's wind energy sector. PGE's consolidated sales revenue rose 9% last year and totaled PLN 30.1bn, while its net earnings came to PLN 3.2bn. Its net electricity generation volume rose 1% and topped 57.05 TWh. The company has a 40% share in Poland's electricity production, and controls 26% of distribution. Besides the Opole project, PGE is responsible for building Poland's first nuclear power plant, with an estimated price tag of PLN 50bn.
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Golub GetHouse to break ground on new Warsaw office project The government believes new investments in Opole are crucial to Poland's energy security. Photo: PGE
A few weeks ago (see PT Business Review+ No. 12 page 4), Krzysztof Kilian, a long-time friend of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, resigned as CEO of PGE after refusing to give a green light for the Opole project. In Kilian's opinion, falling electricity prices put a question mark over the project's future profitability. The government, which holds a controlling stake in PGE, considers the development of new power generating capacities in Opole as key to the country's energy security due to the imminent closure of Poland's oldest and most polluting power stations, amid the country's growing appetite for power. Some experts argue that without huge new investments Poland may face blackouts as early as 2016. However, domestic and foreign environmental activists strongly oppose construction
Looks like Polish banks are finally warming up to property developers after several rather frigid years, as a number of projects that had first surfaced more than half a decade ago are finally about to see the light of day. One of them is Prime Corporate Center in Warsaw's central business district, which was first announced at the peak of Poland's post EU-accession property boom, only to be put on the back burner for many years. Prime Corporate Center was originally a brainchild of Irish developer Irlandzka Grupa Developerska (IGD), which got into financial difficulties and sold the site to the current owner, Golub GetHouse in 2012. Just recently, Golub GetHouse, a joint venture of US Golub & Company and Warsaw-based GetHouse Developer obtained EUR 50m financing for Prime Corporate Center from a consortium of mBank and
mBank Hipoteczny, the highly successful Polish units of Germany's Commerzbank. Czarek Jarząbek, management board president at Golub GetHouse, told Poland Today that the total capex on the 20,000 sq.m GLA project would come to EUR 75m. "We liked the quality of this project and the professional way in which it had been prepared, its location in Warsaw's emerging central business district and Golub GetHouse's global and Polish track record, which includes developments such as the Warsaw Financial Center," commented Barbara Gębal, project manager at mBank's structured financing and mezzanine department. The 23-floor Prime Corporate Center project will be located on Grzybowska Street in the Wola district of the Polish capital, close to the existing Hilton hotel and the Warsaw Spire office complex which is currently being developed by Ghelamco Poland. With a new subway line set to reach this area this year, the Wola-Śródmieście border has been a hotbed of office construction in recent years. The Warsaw Spire investment alone will deliver 100,000 sq.m of new office space there within the next two years. "Golub GetHouse has secured a valid building permit and financing for the project and we are currently finalizing negotiations with potential tenants. Construction will follow the signing of lease contracts, which should take place very soon. The general contractor will be named shortly and the building will be completed in 2015," Czarek Jarządek tells Poland Today. Designed by the Solomon Cordwell Buenz and Epstein architectural studios, the scheme is expected to obtain BREEAM certification of energy efficiency and environmental performance. It offers column-free floor plates, floor to ceiling windows, rooftop terrace and comfortable driveway to main entrance.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 6
"The site is ours by ownership, which guarantees that maintenance fees will be lower and stable over long term, unlike in developments where the investor only has perpetual usufruct rights to the land," says Mr, Jarząbek.
(58,000 sq.m), and Warsaw Corporate Center (10,000 sq.m) as well as some residential projects (Point 48, Platinum Plaza, Oligo Park) in Warsaw and its vicinity.
Warsaw office market Key indicators as of end of 1H 2013
Prime Corporate Center
will offer more than 20,000 sq.m of class-A office space at the edge of Warsaw's city centre. Photo: Golub GetHouse
Office zones Central locations CBD-Central Business District CCF-City Centre Fringe Non-central locations
Stock
Vacan-
sq.m
cy
1,287,000
9.9%
501,000
11.4%
786,000
8.9%
2,724,000
10.8%
E-East (Praga)
172,000
9.8%
LS-Lower South (Puławska)
176,000
13.0%
N-North (Żoliborz)
135,000
9.0%
SE-South East (Wilanów & Sadyba)
188,000
2.2%
SW-South West (Jerozolimskie & Okęcie)
660,000
15.6%
US-Upper South (Mokotów)
1,105,000
10.5%
W-West (Wola) Total
288,000
6.4%
4,011,000
10.5%
Properties, the Israeli-owned developer behind OVO, wanted to break ground on the project in 2008, which made it susceptible to the global financial crisis and tighter lending policies that came in its wake. Without credit, Wings Properties had put OVO on the shelf until autumn last year. The breakthrough came at the end of November 2013, when Wings Properties secured full financing for the PLN 260m mixed-use project through a loan from Alior Bank. The developer itself is reportedly contributing more than PLN 100m to the project. The general contractor for the project is to be named shortly as Wings Properties hopes to begin construction in Q1 2014 and complete the building two years later.
Source: CBRE H1 2013 Warsaw Office MarketView
Golub GetHouse is continously looking for land for new office and residential schemes in Warsaw. "In December 2013 we acquired a site and signed a joint-venture agreement with Mennica Polska regarding a 1ha site on 21 Pereca Street, on the corner of Żelazna and Prosta. Together, we intend to build two class A-office buildings there, a 130m-tall tower with a GLA of 51,000 sq.m and a smaller building with 14,000 sq.m of office space," Czarek Jarząbek tells Poland Today. Golub & Company has been present in the region since the early 90s and has completed a number of office schemes including the Warsaw Financial Centre (75,000 sq.m GLA), International Business Center
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
OVO Wrocław development back on track with completion scheduled for 2016 The first time one heard of OVO Wrocław more than half a decade ago, when Poland's property market was booming and developers had little problem securing financing for new property projects. With its futuristic design, top location and Wrocław's first Hilton hotel, the 50,000 sq.m complex created quite a buzz when it was first announced. Unfortunately, Wings
OVO Wrocław brings futuristic architecture to the Photo: Wings Properties Wrocław city centre. OVO Hilton Wrocław will house high-end apartments, a hotel, as well as 8,450 sq.m of office and retail space. The five-star hotel will be opened under the DoubleTree by Hilton brand and will house 200 rooms and suites, conference rooms and a 6.5-meter high ballroom. Floors 4-6 will offer 140 apartments of various sizes, from 25-sq.m studio apartments to 250-sq.m penthouses. Apartments have been available for purchase since September last year with prices ranging from PLN 11,500 to PLN 26,000 per sq.m. The build-
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 7
ing will comprise nine storeys in total, with two below ground. Designed by Gottesman-Szmelcman Architecture studio, OVO will feature a dirt-resistant cylindrical façade made from DuPont's trademark solid surface material Corian that gave the designers more freedom to play with the building's form. Located in the centre of Wrocław, on Podwale Street, the scheme will include a 2,500 sq.m green patio, open to all residents.
DATA BOX: WROCŁAW OFFICE MARKET IN 1H 2013 • In H1 2013, the transaction volume in Wrocław’s modern office market reached nearly 51,000 sq.m, with new leases accounting for 43% of which pre-lets account for over 50%. It represents nearly a threefold rise on the leasing volume recorded in the same period of 2012. The largest deals were the Getin Group’s lease of 11,700 sq.m in the Sky Tower office building and Kruk’s 7,500 sq.m lease expansion in Wrocławskie Centrum Biznesu. • At the end of June 2013, the city’s office stock stood at 510,000 sq.m, up by more than 40,000 sq.m compared with the beginning of the year, largely following the delivery of office space in the Sky Tower (28,000 sq.m) and phase II of Skanska’s Green Towers complex (10,800 sq.m). If all projects planned for 2013 are completed on time, this year’s supply will total around 80,000 sq.m. • The vacancy rate rose in Wrocław by nearly 4.4 percentage points to 12.4% from the rate of December 2012. Headline rents stood at EUR 13–16/sq.m/month, with effective rents at EUR 11–14/sq.m/month. Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Wings Properties belongs to Star Group Poland, a property company with more than 10 years of experience on the Polish market and offices in Wrocław and Kraków. Its past projects include The Granary LaSuite Hotel and Angel Wings residential complex in Wrocław, as well as Kraków's Angel Wawel, Angel Plaza and Angel City hotels.
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Vantage Development building new office project in Wrocław The Warsaw-listed Vantage Development, a property unit of Poland's services giant Impel, is working on its third office project in Wrocław. With a planned GLA of 22,110 sq.m and an estimated capex of PLN 130m, the new Promenady ZITA project is to reach completion by the end of 2016. The leading leasing agent for Promenady ZITA is Savills. Vantage broke ground on the 5,660 sq.m phase one of ZITA back in August 2013, aiming to finalize the building by the end of 2014. The following two phases (6,340 sq.m and 10,200 sq.m) are to be completed during the subsequent two years. A few weeks ago the developer secured a EUR 23.73m loan from BRE Bank Hipoteczny (recently renamed to mBank Hipoteczny) that provides financing for the entire investment. ZITA was designed by a Wrocław-based design studio Maćków in accordance with the requirements of LEED Gold certification, applying the best practices and new sustainable technologies. The class A office scheme is located in the centre of the city, between Trzebnicka and Jedności Narodowej Streets. ZITA be-
longs to a multifunctional complex Promenady Wrocławskie, covering a 15 hectare area along the Odra River, only 2km from the Market Square. According to plans, Promenady Wrocławskie are to include more than 2,000 apartments and 80,000 sq.m of offices. "This office park was designed for fast-growing companies that plan further expansion in Wroclaw, as well as new companies that want to enter one of the most dynamically developing regional market in Poland”, says Henryk Wojciechowski, Development and Commercialization Director at Vantage Development. "The functional architectural design of the building with a green patio and small architecture, inscribed into a coherent concept of Promenady Wrocławskie, is certainly the biggest asset of this project," says Tomasz Buras, Director, Head of Office Agency at Savills.
Promenady ZITA will house more than 22,000 sq,m of class-A offices.
Photo: Vantage Development
Based in Wrocław, Vantage Development has been listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since March 2012. Their key ongoing residential projects are the Promenady Wrocławskie and Centauris schemes with a planned floor space of 212,000 sq.m. The developer has so far completed two office buildings: Delta 44 (2,700 sq.m of offices + 1,000 sq.m retail) and
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 8
Promenady Epsilon (6,670 sq.m), the latter being the first office segment of Promenady Wrocławskie. Their future plans include a 13,700 sq.m GLA office & conference building Gamma Office, which will be located in one of Wrocław's fastest-growing business districts, on Fabryczna Street, as well as a retail projects in Zielona Góra (4,000 sq.m) and Wrocław (7,000 sq.m). In the first three quarters of 2013 Vantage Development had consolidated sales revenues of PLN 9.6m (against PLN 9.45m in Q1-Q3 2012) and posted net earnings of more than PLN 3m (down from PLN 4m in the prior year's period) . The company sold 130 apartments in January-September 2013, against only 62 in the corresponding period of 2012. Its assets were worth close to PLN 480m as of end of September 2013.
Poland Today talks to: Henryk Wojciechowski, Business Development & Leasing Director at Vantage Development • PT: At what stage is Promenady ZITA at the moment? Henryk Wojciechowski: We have completed the underground parking lot and we are currently finalizing the ground floor. We are in advanced talks with a number of prospective tenants. • PT: You've chosen to break ground on phase one before securing any tenants. What about the subsequent stages? Are you building speculative? HW: We are working on the 5,600 sq.m phase one of Promenady ZITA, which will be completed by the end of 2014. The remaining buildings will be added in line with demand. Our priority is to have a few thousand sq.m of office space that can be delivered within a few months available at any moment. A project attracts interest from potential tenants only when it's under construction – that's the way the market works.
• PT: The office vacancy levels in Wrocłąw are relatively high, at 12.4% in mid-2013 according to Cushman & Wakefield... HW: The number of queries we receive signals that the Wrocław market remains attractive to both tenants and developers. Over the past two years the annual take-up has remained at 70-80,000 sq.m. We are optimistic. Moreover, the recent completion of the residential part of Promenady Wrocłąwskie as well as improved road access have additionally boosted customer interest in the project. • PT: What sets Promenady ZITA from other projects? HW: Besides its obvious assets, such as a good location close to the city centre, access via public transportation and architecture, what really makes the project attractive is that it constitutes part of Promenady Wrocławskie – a well thought-through scheme with modern infrastructure and emerging public spaces, a living, brand new district in the heart of Wrocław. I believe that for many strategic tenants the strongest point of Promenady ZITA and the entire office complex are the potentially unlimited expansion possibilities it offers. In a timeframe of 6 to 18 months we are able to deliver virtually any additional space a tenant may require, of course within rational limits. • PT: Promenady Wrocłąwskie are to house some 90,000 sq,m of offices, which means some 50,000 sq.m remains to be developed. What is the status of those other projects in terms of land ownership, designs and permits? HW: Promenady Wrocłąwskie is a unique project which due to its size and market situation has to be developed in stages. We have rights to the entire project area of and architects are currently working on successive phases of the development, within a framework created by the Guy Perry-led INVI design studio, which was selected in an international architectural competition. We need to adjust our ideas to
customer preferences, market trends, and competition and therefore having the entire project designed in detail from the start would not make sense. • PT: What are your plans for the completed buildings? Will they be put up for sale? HW: As a developer, our goal is to acquire and prepare attractive sites, build and lease properties and sell them. We are not going to create an asset portfolio but rather seek new owners for our projects.
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
Forwarder PEKAES PEKAES expands intermodal capabilities with two major acquisitions With two strategic acquisitions completed at the end of last year, Polish logistics operator PEKAES has significantly boosted its intermodal capabilities, seeking to take full advantage of Poland's unique location at the crossroads of Europe. "In 2013 we adopted a new strategy that makes intermodal services key to our growth. Towards the end of the year PEKAES successfully closed two takeovers that enabled us to enter this attractive, high margin market. We acquired Spedcont, in which we had owned a minority stake, as well as Chemikals, a rail freight operator with transshipment facilities on Poland's eastern border. We are now going to focus on taking full advantage of our combined assets and exploring all synergies," PEKAES' CEO Maciej Bachman tells Poland Today.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 9
PEKAES acquired the 53% stake in road and rail freight operator Spedcont from the Port of Gdynia Authority for PLN 14m, becoming the sole owner of the company that offers container and intermodal shipping. Spedcont specializes in rail and road shipping of 20ft and 40ft containers, truck trailers and other intermodal units. It has a network of container terminals in Warsaw, Łódź, Poznań, and Sosnowiec, a border unit in Małaszewicze as well as container agencies in the ports of Gdynia and Gdańsk. In 2012 the operator had a net profit of PLN 1.4m on PLN 32.8m revenues. Chemikals, the other business PEKAES purchased shortly before the end of last year, operates in the north east of Poland and handles rail imports of bulk commodities to the region, with a focus on fertilizers and high quality Russian coal. Located in Braniewo, on the border with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, it has a 6% share in Poland's total rail freight traffic with Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Chemikals owns and operates a large transshipment complex in Braniewo, where bulk products from the east are being moved from broad gauge cars to the standard European ones, as well as an LPG terminal in Kandawa. PEKAES acquired 100% of shares in Chemikals from its own majority shareholder Kulczyk Holding, an investment company belonging to Polish billionaire Jan Kulczyk. The company paid PLN 76m for a business with annual turnover of PLN 36m and EBIDTA of PLN 10m. "We are open to further acquisition opportunities that would help strengthen our intermodal business," says Maciej Bachman. "We are interested in profitable companies that create additional value for our customers. We seek to mark our presence in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary and therefore we are also looking at potential takeover targets abroad. PEKAES still has assets for sale with an estimated value of PLN 60m, which we intend to utilize well."
Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since 2004, PEKAES has a network of 17 distribution hubs and 15 foreign partners. Based in Błonie, just west of Warsaw, the company offers storage, shipping, and distribution services, road, air and sea freight services as well as a range of other supply chain management services. The majority owner of PEKAES is Kulczyk Holding, an investment company belonging to Polish billionaire Jan Kulczyk.
the company saw its turnover drop 16%, down to PLN 523m, mainly as a result of large-scale reorganization that included sale of non-core assets. Although the company posted a consolidated net loss of PLN 13.4m during that period, it had a PLN 3.8m net profit on continued operations. "Our goal is to become the leading logistics & intermodal operator in Poland, and a significant player in the CEE region. We are betting on organic growth and acquisitions, and keep on expanding our network of foreign partners. PEKAES is strengthening is competences in Poland and investing in a better access to the lucrative markets across Poland's eastern border. Poland is a large country with a phenomenal location, as far as logistics is concerned, and our ambition is to take advantage of that."
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
"We want to make PEKAES Poland's top provider of logistics & intermodal services," CEO Maciej Bachman tells Poland Today. Photo: PEKAES
"We are one of Poland's largest logistics and forwarding firms with a well-developed network and client portfolio. Over the course of last year we streamlined most operational processes and introduced the most advanced customer service standards. Our decision to enter the intermodal shipments segment and our recent acquisitions created a new PEKAES, one that is capable of offering the most complex services to the most demanding clients, regardless of their scale and footprint," the CEO tells Poland Today. With revenues of PLN 397m in the first three quarters of 2013 PEKAES earned PLN 7.9m after tax. Last year
Italy's Finmeccanica wins EUR 280m jet trainer tender Poland selected the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 jet trainer for its pilot training requirement, with a EUR 280m deal for eight aircraft scheduled to be signed in early 2014, the firm said at the end of December. The information was confirmed by Poland's defense ministry officials who emphasized, however, that the decision will be confirmed following a detailed assessment of the aircraft. The contract is a yet another big achievement in Poland for Alenia's owner Finmeccanica. Its subsidiary AgustaWestland owns Poland's top helicopter maker, while its defense systems unit Oto Melara sup-
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 10
plies 30mm Hitfist turrets to the highly successful Patria AMVs armored vehicles made in Poland. The Ministry had earlier said that with a price tag of PLN 1.168bn Italian plane was much cheaper than rival offers. Alenia Aermacchi beat competition from the BAE Systems Hawk (priced at PLN 1.754bn) and KAI T-50 from Lockheed Martin and Korea Aerospace Industries (PLN 1.803bn). Poland had earmarked PLN 1.2bn for the purchase, which covers a ground-based training system including flight simulators. The deal also includes training, technical and logistical support. The Polish ministry of defense has also taken an option for a further four aircraft. The deliveries are to take place in 2016-2017.
an-built trainer in competitions in Singapore and Israel. Italy has also ordered the M-346, bringing total orders to 48. The two aircraft are expected to compete again in the US T-X trainer competition. Poland first attempted to pick a supplier of 16 jet trainers back in 2010 but the tender was cancelled in the following year. The current procedure began in February last year, an initially attracted four bidders, including also Czech Aero Vodochody, which pulled out at an earlier stage. Technical negotiations with the remaining three bidders took place in September and October. December proved to be a positive month for Finmeccanica. Shortly before Christmas its helicopter unit AgustaWestland was awarded a EUR 1.15bn contract by Norway to supply 16 AW101 search-andrescue helicopters, with deliveries due to start in 2017. Finmeccanica is Italy's main industrial group, leader in the high technology field, and ranks among the top ten groups at world level in the aerospace, defense and security sectors. Listed on the Milan Stock Exchnge, with revenues of approximately EUR 17bn, over 68,000 employees, 150 operating and commercial locations and 345 production facilities in 50 different countries world-wide, Finmeccanica is an international a group with an important presence in its four domestic markets: Italy, United Kingdom, the United States and Poland.
Poland will purchase eight M-346 jet trainers from
Alenia Aermacchi.
Photo: Alenia Aermacchi..
The win marks another victory for the M-346 over the T-50 after the Italian aircraft beat out the South Kore-
The company's main Polish business is the country's top helicopter maker PZL Świdnik, which belongs to AgustaWestland. The company is one of several global giants hoping to grab the PLN 8bn order for 70 helicopters from the Polish military. Its competitors include Europe's Airbus Group (formerly known as EADS), which seeks to triple its Polish workforce over the coming years to reach the 3,000 mark, and US Sikorsky Aircraft, which produces the S70i Black
Hawk helicopter in Mielec. All three aerospace and defense giants are promising huge investments in Poland, should their offer get chosen by the Polish army. At the end of last year Airbus Group met with 200 potential subcontractors in Poland to discuss future cooperation.
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
German ferry operator opens opens new TrelleborgTrelleborgŚwinoujście service The German ferry company TT-Line that connects Sweden's Trelleborg and Germany's Travemünde, has opened another ferry route across the Baltic. Since the beginning of January, TT-Line has been providing freight and passenger service on between Trelleborg and the western Polish port of Świnoujście. Due to Trelleborg's location, the new connection will also provide convenient access to and from the major Nordic urban centers of Malmö and Copenhagen. TTLine's MS Nils Dacke ferry travels between Trelleborg and Świnoujście ports every day except Sundays, six times a week. The vessel has 163 cabins and a cargo capacity of 2,200 lane meters. TT-Line has sailed the Trelleborg-Travemünde route that gave the company its name since 1962. TT-Line is a privately owned company, owned by German shipowners Trampschiffahrt GmbH & Co. KG (83.5%) and Aug. Bolten Wm. Millers Nachfolger GmbH & Co. KG (16.5%). TT-Line's ferries transport 630,000 passengers and 330,000 freight units on up to 16 daily departures from Trelleborg in Sweden to Travemünde and Rostock in Germany and Świnoujście in Poland.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 11
CPP turned over PLN 639.5m in 2012, a decline of 8.4% against the prior year, and in 2013 it expects a further drop, down to PLN 630m. The company exports almost two thirds of its output to 36 markets. Poland Today approached CPP with questions about their recent performance as well as the new investment, but the company declined to provide any further details. TT-Line's MS Nils Dacke ferry will makes six cruises a week between Świnoujście in Poland and Trelleborg in Sweden. Photo: TT-Line
Polish Unity Line has operated on the Trelleborg and Swinoujscie route with two or three daily crossings since 2007. Other ferry operators connecting Poland with Scandinavia include Swedish Stena Line and Polish Polferries (PŻB), which the government hopes to privatize in the near future. Polish seaports welcomed 2.358 passengers in 2012, 54% of which travelled via Świnoujście, which is particularly popular due to its connection to Ystad.
Breakfast cereal & muesli sales in PLNm
As for the Nestlé group, it has recently broken ground on its 10 th Polish factory, a Nestlé Purina PetCare facility in Nowa Wieś Wrocławska near Wrocław. The PLN 300m project is to be operational in 2H 2014 and will create 200 jobs (see PT Business Review+ No. 001 page 12 for an interview with Giorgio Vesprini, Country Manage, Nestlè Purina Poland & Baltics.)
750 740 730 720 710 700 2009
FOOD & AGRICULTURE
Nestle & General Mills to invest PLN 50m in Toruń cereal plant Poland's top producer of breakfast cereal, the NestleGeneral Mills joint venture Cereal Partners Poland Toruń-Pacific (CPP), seeks to expand its product range to include the popular Nestle Fitness brand, which is currently being imported to Poland and the CEE region from France. The new production lines are to cost estimated PLN 50m and they will be operational in 2014, CPP's CEO Wojciech Sobieszak said in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita daily.
Over the past decade the demand for breakfast cereal in Poland has increased by 40%, and now stands at approximately 50,000 tons per annum, which translates into a per capita consumption of 1.3kg. Back in 1990 the figure stood at 0.025kg, so the progress is remarkable, but since only 45% of Polish households regularly purchase cereal, the growth potential is considerable. Despite growing consumption, the number of producers has shrank from an estimated 30 in early 1990s down to less than 10 at the moment. Most companies focus on supplying private label products to retail chains.
2010
2011
2012
*2013
*) projected Source: CPP Toruń-Pacific/ Rzeczpospolita
"The project is quite complex and it still remains at an early design stage and therefore we are unable to provide any specifics at the moment," CPP's spokesperson Jarosław Szczepanowski told Poland Today. The estimated sales of breakfast cereal in Poland total some PLN 750m, a half of which goes to CPP ToruńPacific. However, in volume terms, private labels represent nearly 45% of the market, with CPP's share topping some 37%. The undisputed leader is Poland's number one retail chain Biedronka, which sells nearly a third of all breakfast cereal consumed in the country.
Nestlé has been present in Poland since 1993 and currently operates nine plants in the country. The company is known for its Nescafe coffee, Winiary readymade foods and condiments under, Gerber baby food products, confectionery brand Princessa, mineral water brand Nalęczowianka as well as Purina pet food. Nestle currently employs an estimated 5,100 people in Poland. In 2012 Nestle Polska generated PLN 3.5bn sales revenues, up from PLN 2.7bn in 2011. Since its first entered the Polish market two decades ago Nestle has invested in excess of PLN 1.6bn in the country.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 12
SERVICES & BPO
UK's Cineworld buys Cinema City City to become Europe's No. 2 movie theater chain In an unexpected announcement, Britain's top cinema operator Cineworld said it was buying about 100 multiplexes in eastern Europe and Israel in a cash and shares deal worth about GBP 500m that gives it a number one position in Poland, among other markets. The UK company will pay the Netherlands-based, Israeli-owned Cinema City International (CCI), GBP 272m in cash, and has launched a GBP 110m rights issue to help fund the purchase. As a result, CCI will become a 24.9% shareholder in the enlarged group.
Cinema City is Poland's number one multiplex cinema operator with 31 cinemas in 19 cities and a pipeline of future openings. Photo: Cinema City
Cinema City, which trades on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, operates 99 multiplexes with 966 screens in
seven countries across Central and Eastern Europe and Israel and owns a cinema advertising business and the Forum Film distribution companies, which distribute films for international and domestic film studios. For full year 2012, Cinema City had total revenues of EUR 280.7m (GBP 231.6m) and EBITDA of EUR 60.2m (GBP 49.7m) and in the 2013 interim period, it had total revenues of EUR 209m (GBP 172.5m). Since its initial public offering in 2006 the company has opened 500 new screens and it currently has 36 new multiplexes (377 screens) under development. Cinema City's total number of admissions rose by 3% y/y last year. With 31 cinemas in 19 Polish cities, Cinema City is the number one operator in Poland, its key market. Last year it signed contracts for four new outlets (38 screens) in Poland, two in Warsaw (at the planned GTC shopping centers in Wilanów and Białołęka), one in Lublin (IKEA Lublin) and one in Starogard Gdański. Cineworld, which floated on the stock exchange in 2007, operates 102 sites including 10 highest grossing cinemas in the UK and Ireland, and this is its first foray beyond these borders. The company is the UK and Ireland’s leading cinema group in terms of box office revenues and also operates theaters under the Picturehouse brand. The tie-up with Cinema City would create the second biggest exhibition business in Europe with the No. 1 or No. 2 position by number of screens in each of the regions where it is involved. The combined company would have 201 sites and 1,852 digital screens. In full year 2012, the Cineworld Group (including Picturehouse) accounted for over 47m admissions, had revenues of GBP 358.7m and EBITDA before exceptional items of GBP 67.1m. According to Cineworld, the Cinema City takeover brings attractive growth opportunities in developing economies and markets in which multiplex screen penetration is comparatively low, with low admissions
per capita, high population per screen and low average ticket prices. In 2009, Cinema City had revenues of EUR 188.5m, EBITDA of EUR 35.8m and operating profit of EUR 19.6m and has since experienced strong growth with 2009-2012 revenue, EBITDA and operating profit CAGR of 14.2%, 18.9%and 14.8% respectively. Furthermore, Cinema City has a strong pipeline of screen openings in place to capitalize on further growth, the UK-based operator said in a statement. The current CEO of CCI, Mooky Greidinger, whose family has indirect control of CII's majority shareholder I.T. International Theatres Ltd., will be appointed as Chief Executive Officer of the enlarged group. "This is an exciting and unique opportunity for Cineworld to offer shareholders enhanced growth prospects and attractive returns via exposure to some of the most promising cinema markets in Europe. Cinema City is an extremely well-run and dynamic business, which creates a platform for further growth in future. Mooky Greidinger will be joining us as CEO he is a highly respected and very experienced cinema executive who enjoys international recognition. The Board therefore unanimously recommends this proposed transaction with CCI," commented Anthony Bloom, Chairman of Cineworld, who will maintain his position in the enlarged group. In the first three quarters of 2013 Polish cinemas sold 25.8m tickets, marking a 6% decline y/y. Their box office revenues dropped by 7.8%, down to PLN 515m. Poland's second largest multiplex operator Multikino was acquired by Cineworld's competitor, British Vue Entertainment last year. The number three player on the market is Helios, owned by the Warsaw-listed media group Agora.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 13
RETAIL & SERVICES
Poland's luxury goods market to hit PLN 13bn in 2016, says KPMG Sales of luxury goods & services in Poland are to pass the PLN 12.9bn mark in 2016 according to the fourth edition of the annual KPMG report on the sector. The business consultancy argues that Poland still remains, to a large extent, uncharted territory for global luxury players, even though the number of wealthy Poles is soon about the reach 1m, and close to 70% of the world's most prestigious brands are already available in the country. Despite the prolonging euro zone crisis and recent economic slowdown in Poland, the number of well-off individuals (people with annual gross income of PLN 85,000 and above) in the country continues to rise. Last year the group expanded by some 18,000 from the 2012 level, topping 786,000 while their combined net income increased by PLN 4.1bn, reaching PLN 130.9bn. KPMG estimates that before the end of 2016 there will be 1m wealthy and rich Poles with a total income of PLN 172bn in the country. Still, however, the Poles are lagging way behind western Europe as far as their personal wealth is concerned. KPMG estimates the number of Poles with assets of more than USD 1m at no more than 50,000. Even in EU countries with much smaller populations, such as Portugal and Finland the figure stands at more than 60,000. "An average EU citizen has personal wealth of USD 138,600, which places Poland, with the average of merely USD 20,800 at number 24 in the entire 27-
nation bloc. Only the average Lithuanian, Latvian, Romanian, and Bulgarian is poorer that a statistical Pole," says Andrzej Marczak, Partner at KMPG Poland. "At the current annual growth rate of 4.1% it will take Poland 50 years to catch up with the EU average."
No. of wealthy Poles in '000 1,000
and wellness services (PLN 1.2bn), upscale real estate (PLN900m), spirits and cigars (PLN 714m) as well as furniture (PLN 580m). The two segments to experience the most notable growth over the next three years, according to KPMG, will be luxury properties (+29%) and hotels & spas (+28%).
Poland's luxury goods & services market in PLNbn
900 14
800
12 10
700
8
600
6 4
500 2008 2009 2010
2011
2012
2013 *2014 *2015 *2016
Note: KPMG defines people with annual gross income of PLN 85,000 and more as "wealthy" *) projected Source: KPMG
2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011
2012
2013 *2014 *2015 *2016
*) projected Source: KPMG
The Polish market for luxury goods & services, which amounted to an estimated PLN 10.8bn last year (up from PLN 10.2bn in 2012), is trying to keep up with the Kowalskis. KPMG experts see the sector's 2016 turnover at PLN 12.9bn, more than 19% above the last year's level (PLN 10.8bn). Some 69% of all global luxury brands are already available in Poland, and the market is gradually becoming saturated. A survey conducted by KPMG showed that most luxury goods retailers operating in Poland are pleased with the current situation and optimistic about the future. With an estimated sales of PLN 4.5bn, luxury cars represent more than 40% of the entire segment and unlike the motor vehicle sector as whole, they seem resistant to economic cycles. Well-off Poles are also keen on luxury clothing and accessories (PLN 1.8bn), hotel
Despite their overall positive outlook, three out of four companies surveyed by the consultancy identified a number of factors that constrain their expansion in Poland. They include a relatively small target group, currency fluctuations, administrative and legal constraints as well as elevated rents. "For many companies that sell luxury consumer goods, such as clothing, accessories, or jewelry, the lack of a proper high street, particularly in Warsaw, is a major hindrance. The recent opening of the vitkAc department store was a step in the right direction. Perhaps the planned revamping of the Plac Trzech KrzyĹźy area will lead to the creation of a luxury shopping district in the Polish capital in the coming years," says Andrzej Marczak.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 14
POLITICS & ECONOMY
Polish Polish politician call calls alls for Tesco boycott amid migration row with UK Comment made by Jan Bury, head of the parliamentary faction of the Polish Peasants Party (PSL), the junior member of Poland's ruling coalition, have gained quite lot of attention in the global media last week. Mr. Bury urged the Poles to boycott Tesco stores in retaliation for British Prime Minister David Cameron's remarks about Polish migrants pocketing British welfare payments. Cameron has said he wants new EU rules to limit access for migrants to their host countries' welfare payments and pointed to Poles, among the biggest migrant communities in Britain, as an example of the potential abuse of rules. Mr. Bury referred to Cameron's policies as "unfriendly and scandalous towards Poland and Poles," as quoted by the Polish Press Agency PAP. "As Poles, we can also say 'no' to Prime Minister Cameron and his policies," Bury, a former deputy treasury minister, said. "We call on Poles to boycott British retailer Tesco." Ahead of 2015 elections, Conservative Party leader Cameron is under pressure to address voter concerns about immigration, an issue that flared up again this month after restrictions expired on Romanians and Bulgarians working in Britain. His comments in a televised interview that he wanted to stop migrants from the country sending home child benefit provoked a furious reaction in Poland, with top government and opposition politicians condemning Cameron for his alleged anti-Polish rhetoric. Polish PM Donald Tusk
said it was unacceptable to deny benefits to any EU citizen on the grounds of nationality. As the diplomatic row unfolded, Cameron telephoned his Polish counterpart in an attempt to build bridges and assure Donald Tusk he was not singling out Poles for criticism and that the impact of labor flows on the benefits systems of member states was a "pan-EU issue". Downing Street said both Cameron and Tusk had agreed to "hold further bilateral discussions on how the UK and Poland can work together to better manage the impact of intra-EU migration on social security systems." Polish government officials said Cameron had assured Tusk that he did not intend to "stigmatize" Poles. However, the UK Prime Minister's spokesman had earlier explained that it was "perfectly fair" for Cameron to mention Poles since they had moved to Britain in larger numbers than nationals from other new EU member states when they joined the bloc in 2004. As for Tesco, which employs 30,000 people in Poland and sells merchandise supplied by 1,500 Polish companies, it does not seem likely that the calls for a boycott would have any noticeable impact on its business in Poland, which has suffered some setbacks in recent years due to changing customer habits and aggressive expansion of discount grocery chains. The British retailer, which entered the Polish market nearly two decades ago, said that it dealt in "retail, not politics." With annual revenues of PLN 10.8bn, Tesco is one of Poland's top five retail chains. The number one spot belongs to the Portuguese-owned Jeronimo Martins Polska, owner of the Biedronka chain, which ranks as Poland's 4th largest company by revenues with a turnover of PLN 28.9bn. Other leading foreign-owned players in the sector include Germany's Metro AG (via its Makro Cash & Carry unit as well as electronics chains Saturn & Media Markt) and Lidl, as well as
France's Carrefour and Auchan (the latter has recently taken over Metro's hypermarket chain Real).
POLITICS & ECONOMY
Poland to join world's top 20 richest nations by 2022, 2022, PM says Poland is to join the world's 20 wealthiest nations by 2022 thanks to funds from the 2014-2020 EU budget pool, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a news conference last week. "According to our assumptions in 2022 Poland will certainly be among the 20 richest countries in the world," Tusk said. "At the time we should reach 80% of EU average in terms of GDP per capita thanks to funds from the 2014-2020 EU budget pool�, PM Tusk said, adding that the spending will be targeted to reduce poverty and help underdeveloped areas. "We assume that by 2020, 1.5m Poles will exit poverty," the PM said. "In 2020, the level of poverty in Poland will be lower than the EU average." The focus will shift to reducing imbalances within regions rather than between regions, Tusk said. To that end, Poland will allocate PLN 8bn to mid-sized towns, mostly to former capitals of provinces which lost the status due to the administrative reform conducted in late 1990s. In other areas, Poland wants to reach EU average spending on R&D in 2022, i.e. 2% of GDP. According to the PM, half of the funding would come from budget, and the other half - from businesses.
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13 January 2014 / page 15
KEY STATISTICS Consumer Prices Prices
+0.1 +3.6
+0.1
-2.7
-4.7 +0.7
-4.8 +3.5
-4.9
-0.2
+2.0
+0.1
+1.8
+1.8 +0.2
+1.8
+0.1
-1.4
+0.5
-1.4 +0.8
-2.3
-1.0
-2.3
-1.2
Communications -9.7
0.0
-9.7
-7.2 +2.8
-11.7
-4.9
Transport
Gross CPI
+1.1
-0.3
+0.1
0.0
y/y
m/m
Jul '13
+1.0 +0.1 +0.8 +0.2 +0.6 -0.2
Aug '13 Sep '13
Oct '13 Nov '13
m/m (%)
+3.8
-0.7
-0.9
+3.6
-5.8
y/y (%)
+4.3
+3.4
+3.9
+3.2
+3.8
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Turnover in PLNbn
564.7
582.8
593.0
646.1
676.0
+13.3
+4.3
+5.5
+11.6
+5.6
y/y (%) Nov 13
Housing
+1.9 +0.3
Sep 13
-4.8
+0.2 +3.7 +0.2 +3.6
-0.1
Jul 13
Clothing, shoes
+1.9
May 13
Alcohol, tobacco +3.6
0.0
Mar 13
-1.2 +2.6
Jan 13
2.5
Nov 12
Food & bev
Month
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%
Sep 12
y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m
Retail Turnover
Jul 12
Nov '13
May 12
Oct '13
Mar 12
Sep '13
Jan 12
Sector
Inflation
Aug '13
Nov 11
Data in (%)
Residential Construction Dwellings
2008 2009 2010
2011
2012 Jan-Nov y/y
230.1
178.8
174.9
184.1
165.1
142.9
158.1
(in '000 units)
Producer Prices Prices
Industrial Output Ou tput
Permits
2013
(%)
126.3
-17.6 -11.2
Commenced
174.7
162.2
141.8
121.0
m/m (%)
+0.1
+0.7
+0.2
-0.3
+0.1
-0.7
-0.3
m/m (%)
-0.7
+2.6
+1.5
-4.5
+9.6
+6.0
-6.2
U. construction
687.4 670.3 692.7 723.0
713.1
704.1
-2.8
y/y (%)
-2.5
-1.3
-0.8
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-1.5
y/y (%)
-1.8
+2.8
+6.3
+2.2
+6.2
+4.4
+2.9
Completed
165.2 160.0 135.7
152.5
129.6
-4.6
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
y/y (%)
+2.0
+2.0
+2.2
+3.4
+2.1
+7.6
+3.3
y/y (%)
+11.6
+10.7
+3.6
-3.5
+9.8
+7.7
+1.0
Gross Domestic Product
May'13 Jun '13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13
2006 +3.2
-2.0 2007 +7.4
-0.1
-0.2
-1.9 2008
-0.1
-1.9
-1.8
2009
+4.8
-0.1 -1.8
2010
+0.2
-0.1
2011 +1.0
-0.2 -1.8 2012 +0.2
y/y (%)
-27.5
Year
2006
y/y (%)
+18.1
+19.1 -18.3 2007 +15.5
+7.8 -5.2 2008 +12.1
-0.8 -11.1 2009 +5.1
+9.4
+14.3
-4.8
-3.2
2010
2011
+4.6
+11.8
-2.9 -8.9 2012 -0.6
A
A
B
138 6,290
B
B
143 6,061 138
Manufacturing
3,522
154
3,491
152 3,560
155 3,625 158
Energy
6,535
198 6,196
188 5,828
177
152 3,693
157 3,766 160
Construction
3,829
163 3,556
Retail & repairs
3,365
143 3,432 146
3,421
6,021 183
146 3,408 145
Transportation
3,816
135 3,439
122 3,547
125 3,589 127
IT, telecoms
6,379
166 6,685
174 6,707
174 6,654 173
Financial sector 6,044
136 6,356
143 6,702
151 6,109 137
National average 3,878
154
3,741 149
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
3,613
144 3,652 145
-2.0%
395,657
-2.3%
Q1 2013
+0.5%
377,815
-3.1%
Q4 2012
+0.7%
442,231
-3.5% -3.5% -4.9%
Sentiment Indicators
2010
+3.9%
1,416,585
-5.1%
Economic sentiment and consumer confidence indicators
2009
+1.6%
1,344,384
-3.9%
Co nsumer conf id ence (lef t axis) Economic sentiment (right axis)
20
120
0
100
-20
80
-40
60 Dec 13
A
B
192 6,060
404,310
+0.8%
1,522,736
Sep 13
A 8,427
+1.9%
Q2 2013
1,462,734
J un 13
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
+1.9%
M ar 13
Q2 2013
Current account def. in % of GDP
+4.5%
Dec 12
Q1 2013
GDP in PLN bn current prices
2011
Sep 12
Q4 2012
Growth y/y unadjusted
131.7
2012
J un 12
A: avg monthly wages in PLN B: indexed avg wages, 100=2005
Coal mining
+16.1
Source: The Central Statistical Office of Poland, GUS
Gross Gross Wages Sector
m/m (%)
M ar 12
y/y (%)
-2.0
-0.1
Period
May '13 Jun '13 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sep '13 Oct '13 Nov '13
Dec 11
Year
-0.2
Month
Sep 1 1
y/y (%)
May'13 Jun '13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13
Jun 11
m/m (%)
May '13 Jun '13 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sep '13 Oct '13 Nov '13
Construction Output
Construction Prices Price s Month
Month
M ar 11
Month
The economic sentiment (1990-2010 average = 100) is a composite made up of 5 sectoral confidence indicators, which are arithmetic means of seasonally adjusted balances of answers to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variable. Source: Eurostat
Key Economic Data & Projections Indicator
2013
2014
GDP change
+3.9% +4.5%
+1.9%
+1.5%
+3.1%
Consumer inflation
+2.6% +4.3%
+3.7%
+0.9%
+1.5%
Producer inflation
+2.1% +7.6%
+3.4%
-1.2%
+0.7%
CA balance, % of GDP
*2010
*2011
*2012
-5.1%
-5.0%
-3.7%
-1.4%
-0.3%
Nominal gross wage
+3.9%
+5.2%
+3.7%
+3.2%
+4.4%
Unemployment**
12.4%
12.5%
13.4%
13.5%
12.7%
3.99
4.12
4.19
4.20
4.06
EUR/PLN
Sources: NBP, BZ WBK, GUS *) actual figures **) year-end
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 16
55.95 ↑
100 SEK
47.01 ↑
100 NOK
49.65 ↑
10,000 JPY
USD EUR 350
300
15.25 ↑
100 CZK 10,000 HUF
400
292.48 ↓ 139.34 ↓
Money Supply in PLN m Monetary base M1 - Currency outside banks
as of 10 January 2014
WIG-20 stocks Price Change Change in alphabetical 10 Jan 3 Jan end of order '14 '14 '12
WIG Total index
Jun '13 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sep '13 Oct '13 Nov '13
PLN (up to 1 year)
5.0%
PLN (up to 5 y )
5.4%
PLN (over 5 y)
5.3%
PLN (total)
5.3%
5.0%
EUR (up to 1m EUR) 1.9%
2.3%
EUR (over 1m EUR) 2.9%
3.5%
4.7%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.1%
5.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
1.9%
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
↓ Eurocash
45.24
-8%
+4%
3.5%
3.2%
2.5%
3.0%
↓ Grupa Lotos
34.5
-4%
-16%
WIG-20 blue chip index
↓ GTC
7.23
-2%
-27%
98.05
-5%
0%
2,327.89 2,327.89
49.4
-9%
-47%
Change 1 week
0% →
42
+2%
-37%
Change end of '12
-7% ↓
-41%
Warsaw Inter Bank Offered Rate (WIBOR) as of 10 Jan 2014 Overnight
1 week
1 month
3 months
6 months
2.59%%
2.58%
2.61%
2.70%
2.72%
153,867 531,124 114,083
Sep '13
Oct '13
166,620 540,873
154,967 536,237
113,223
113,174
538,837 113,718
928,359
931,042
935,095
934,713
- Time deposits
412,407 405,703
414,941
412,469
M3
949,988
955,419
953,446
- Net foreign assets 154,035 147,978 150,517 148,702 Monetary base: Polish currency emitted by the central bank and money on accounts held with it. M1= currency outside banks + demand deposits M2= M1+ time deposits (inc in foreign currencies) M3= the broad measure of money supply Source: NBP
Lombard
2.50%
153,672
M2
947,228
Reference
Nov '13
45.5
-5%
0%
↓ Bogdanka
122
-5%
-10%
Change 1 week
↓ BZ WBK
373
-2%
54%
Change end of '12
↓ Asseco Pol.
↓ Handlowy ↓ JSW ↑ Kernel
Central Bank (NBP) Base Rates Aug '13
49, 49,796. 796.50
4.6%
NBP deposit
4.00%
Rediscount
↓ KGHM
111.6
-6%
2.75%
↓ mBank
479.95
-2%
47%
9.78
-1%
-20%
177
-1%
+6%
56,000
15.74
-3%
-14%
54,000
1.00%
↓ Orange Pol.
WIG Total closing index last three months
Credit
↓ Pekao
The financial sector's net lending in PLN bn,
↓ PGE
loan stock at the end of period
↓ PGNiG
4.85
-6%
-7%
↓ PKN Orlen
42.2
-1%
-15%
38.31
-2%
+4%
50,000
-3%
48,000
Type of loan
Jul '13
Aug '13
Sep '13
Nov '13
Loans to customers
901,863
908,106
901,288
906,298
- to private companies
263,491
262,963
559,965
262,396
↓ PZU
426
-5%
- to households
556,027
560,608
260,585
563,157
↓ Synthos
5.20
-9%
-4%
Total assets of banks
1,627,182 1,626,489
1,612,836
1,627,119
↓ Tauron
4.19
-4%
-12%
Source: Central Bank NBP
↓ PKO BP
0% → +9% ↑
52,000
10 Jan 14
100 DKK
Warsaw Stock Exchange, rates in PLN
on loans to non-financial corporations
11 Dec 13
338.18 ↓
10 Jan 14
503.89 ↑
100 CHF
28 Oct 13
100 GBP
21 Aug 13
417.45 ↑
13 Jun 13
100 EUR
Key indices
Term / currency
450
3 Apr 13
307.00 ↑
24 Jan 13
100 USD
Stock Exchange
Average weighted annual interest rates
19 Nov 13
as of 10 January 2014
Interest rates
24 Oct 13
100 USD/EUR against PLN
Central Bank average rates
2 Oct 13
Currency
Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange
T rade Poland's ten largest trading partners, ranked according to 2012
Poland exports and imports according to commodity groups, according to SITC classification EXPORTS in PLN bn Jan-Oct 2013
y/y (%)
share (%)
2012
IMPORTS in PLN bn share (%)
Jan-Oct 2013
y/y (%)
share (%)
2012
share (%)
EXPORTS in PLNbn JanNo Country Oct share 2013
*2012
Share No
IMPORTS in PLN bn JanCountry Oct share *2012 2013
Share
56,746
+9.4
10.7
61,694
10.3
38,800
+4.3
7.2
44,287
6.9
1 Germany
133,127 25.0% 150,046 25.1%
1 Germany
7,170
+6.0
1.4
7,967
1.3
3,338
+1.0
0.6
3,989
0.6
2 UK
34,789
6.5%
40,184
2 Russia
66,670 12.4%
Crude materials except fuels
13,343
+10.5
2.5
14,024
2.4
18,009
-6.4
3.4
22,053
3.5
3 Czech Rep.
32,706
6.1%
37,475 6.3%
3 China
50,619 9.4% 57,235 9.0%
Fuels etc
24,776
+0.6
4.7
29,389
4.9
63,364 -10.0
11.8
85,280
13.4
4 France
30,127
5.7%
34,862
4 Italy
27,799
5.2% 32,782
1,484 +36.0
0.3
1,342
0.2
2,213
-9.0
0.4
2,887
0.5
5 Russia
28,841
5.4%
32,290 5.4%
5 France
20,573
3.8% 25,303 4.0%
Food and live animals Beverages and tobacco
Animal and vegetable oils Chemical products Manufactured goods by material Machinery, transport equip. Other manufactured articles Not classified TOTAL
6.7% 5.8%
115,531 21.5% 134,933 21.1% 91,033 14.3% 5.1%
49,367
+6.8
9.3
54,295
9.1
78,196
+2.5
14.6
89,140
14.0
6 Italy
22,997
4.3% 29,067 4.9%
6 Netherlands
20,271
3.8% 24,543
109,878
+1.3
20.6
126,161
21.1
94,121
-2.1
17.5
110,773
17.4
7 Netherlands
20,950
3.9%
7 Czech Rep.
19,660
3.7% 23,327
3.7%
200,458
+5.4
37.6
223,646
37.5
177,909
+3.1
33.1
203,718
31.9
8 Ukraine
15,017
2.8%
68,214
+5.9
12.8
75,925
12.7
48,271
-3.4
9.0
57,646
9.0
9 Sweden
14,666
1,380
n/a
0.1
2,653
0.5
13,347
n/a
2.4
18,515
2.8
10 Slovakia
13,939
532,816
+4.9
100
597,096
100
537,568
-0.9
100
638,288
100
26,678 4.5%
3.8%
17,213
2.9%
8 USA
14,579
2.7%
16,436
2.6%
2.7%
15,811
2.6%
9 UK
14,208
2.6%
15,509
2.4%
2.6%
15,288
n/a
n/a
14,619
2.3%
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS)
2.6% 10 South Korea
*) preliminary estimates, full year
weekly newsletter # 018 / 13th January 2014 / page 17
Industrial Industrial Properties
Regional Data Industrial output Jan-Nov 2013 *
Poland's regions (main cities indicated
Indus-
in brackets)
try
Monthly wages (PLN) Jan-Nov 2013 **
Unemployment Nov 2013
Constru- Indus- Constru-in '000 ction
try
ction
%
New dwellings Jan-Nov 2013
Existing stock, sq.m
by region, 1H 2013
Num- Index *
Warsaw central
ber
Warsaw suburbs
VaEffective Under const cancy rents EUR/ ruction, sq.m ratio sq.m/mth
2,728,000
41,000
15.9%
3.5–5.0 1.9–3.2
99.9
94.7
4,237
4,031
150.9
13.0
15,174
113.2
Central Poland
1,021,000
8,000
16.5%
1.9–3.1
Kujawsko-Pomorskie (Bydgoszcz) 102.4
105.9
3,337
3,297
146.7
17.8
5,808
105.1
Poznań
1,041,000
50,000
3.6%
2.3–2.9
Upper Silesia
1,478,000
33,000
5.8%
2.5–3.1
795,000
84,000
5.5%
2.4–3.0
Dolnośląskie (Wrocław)
102.6
96.3
3,673
3,031
129.9
14.0
5,636
89.7
Lubuskie (Zielona Góra)
96.6
91.0
3,373
2,983
58.2
15.3
3,026
104.7
Łódzkie (Łódź)
104.1
90.8
3,667
3,061
149.8
13.9
5,644
79.0
Małopolskie (Kraków)
97.2
90.8
3,749
3,361
161.5
11.4
13,544
101.9
106.8
78.6
4,466
4,785 280.9
11.0 25,962
93.1
Lubelskie (Lublin)
Mazowieckie (Warszawa)
Wrocław Gdańsk
192,000
n/a
9.6%
3.2–4.0
Kraków
149,000
n/a
7.6%
4.0-4.1
Commercial Properties
97.9
94.9
3,487
3,199
50.5
14.0
1,558
101.2
Podkarpackie (Rzeszów)
108.7
97.4
3,257
3,088
149.7
16.0
5,329
95.8
Podlaskie (Białystok)
105.8
97.0
3,179
3,767
69.5
14.9
3,592
87.8
Pomorskie (Gdańsk-Gdynia)
102.8
94.7
3,875
3,494
112.0
13.1
11,037
90.0
Śląskie (Katowice)
97.7
90.7
4,516
3,552
206.7
11.1
9,540
108.2
Warsaw
8,081
-0.5%
11.5-25.5
10.5%
85
Świętokrzyskie (Kielce)
101.5
88.5
3,378
3,191
87.9
16.1
2,385
87.1
Kraków
6,026
-15.0%
13-15
2.71%
41
78
Warmińsko-Mazurskie (Olsztyn)
98.8
84.0
3,171
3,074
112.2
21.1
4,020
86.3
Katowice
5,817
+8.7%
13-14
8.29%
48
56
104.8
91.1
3,669
3,624
142.5
9.5
12,345
93.7
Poznań
6,341
-8.0%
14-16
14.66%
44
55
112.1
86.7
3,417
3,274
107.1
17.4
4,988
76.4
Łódź
4,811
-2.8%
12-14
14.97%
31
26
101.8
88.0
3,906
13.2 129,588
113.2
Wrocław
5,970
-7.7%
13-16
12.37%
38
41
Gdańsk
6,403
+0.7%
13-15
11.24%
39
31
Opolskie (Opole)
Wielkopolskie (Poznań) Zachodniopomorskie (Szczecin) National average
3,707 2,116.0
New apartments* Q2 '13
City
PLN/sq.m
Index 100 = same period of the previous year. ** without social taxes Sources: Central Statistical Office GUS, NBP, C&W
Offices 1H'13
Retail rents**1H'13
Change Rents** Vacancy y/y
Retail
High
centres streets 85
*avg, offer-based ** EUR/sq.m/month; Retail units 100-150 sq.m
Poland Today Sp. z o. o. ul. Złota 61 lok. 100, 00–819 Warsaw, Poland tel/fax: +48 22 464 82 69 mobile: +48 694 922 898, +48 602 214 603 www.poland-today.pl Business Review+ Editor Lech Kaczanowski office: +48 22 412 41 69 mobile: +48 607 079 547 lech.kaczanowski@poland-today.pl
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR m) Q1 '13
Q2 '13
Q3 '13
1,861
1,381
2,886
175
-3,020
-1,794
310
-550
-1,203
2007
2008
957
2,588
-1,529
2009
2010
2011
2012
in Poland
17,242
10,128
9,343
10,507
14,832
4,716
Polish DI
-4,020
-3,072
-3,335
5,484
-5,276
375
CA balance vs GDP
-8,893 -10,059
-5,313
-139 1,203
1,017
2,334 4,048
4,816
1,274 1,686
1,047
-18,129 -17,977 -13,332 -5.1%
-5.0%
-3.7%
15
-2,313
486 -2,027
-3.1% -2.3%
-2.0%
A-
stable
Standard & Poor's
A-
stable
Moody's
A2
stable
12
6 months- EUR 375 (PLN 1480) 3 months- EUR 245 (PLN 980) Sales Director James Anderson-Hanney
Real Earnings
mobile: +48 881 650 600
Average gross wage vs inflation. 9
2000
1800
6
Source: NBP, BZ WBK Source: Central Statistical Office GUS
Wage
180 160 140 120 100 Nov 09
Jul 10
Mar 11
Business Review+ Subscription 1 year- EUR 690 (PLN 2760)
Source: Rating agencies
Q3 13
CA balance
2012 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13
outlook
2400
Q1 13
Services, net
2011
number (left axis) % (right axis)
2600
rating
Fitch Ratings
% of population in working age
Q3 12
Trade balance
2010
Agency
Registered unemployed, in ‘000 and
2200
Current Account (EUR m) Period
Unemployment
Q1 12
Year
Q4 '12
Q3 11
Polish DI
Q3 '12
Q1 11
in Poland
Q2 '12
Q3 10
Quarter
Country Credit Ratings
Nov 11
james.anderson-hanney@poland-
CPI
Jul 12
Index 100 = Jan 2005. Source: GUS
Mar 13
today.pl
Nov 13
Publisher Richard Stephens Financial Director Arkadiusz Jamski Creative Director Bartosz Stefaniak New Business Consultant Tomasz Andryszczyk