10 The Trend Scenario

The trend scenario is based on the current, prevailing land use and economic conditions. Figure 18 shows what the land use patterns would look like under this schema. Essentially, the defining feature of the trend scenario is the large amount of single family, tract housing that would come to dominate the site. Figure 17 is an example of such land use patterns observed near the site currently.

Figure 17: Single Family Tract Homes near the Study Stie

Figure 18: Future Land Use Map under Trend Scenario

The western 2/3rds of the site would be single family housing. This housing would likely be developed as tract homes by various home developers in the area and divided up into subdivisions that may not be coherently connected. Some commercial corridors are likely to develop along the main roads within the site such as the 130 and Cameron Road. Additionally, give current conditions, the Austin Executive Airport is likely to stay in place and even grow its operations. Given this, in the trend scenario, it is likely that the airport will stay in place. Thus, the land proximate to it is likely to remain as undeveloped open space with perhaps some light industrial developing relatively close to it.

In terms of land use mix for the site, under the trend scenario the vast majority of the developed land would be dedicated to single family housing. At least 67% of the land would be dedicated to single family housing. Of these single family homes 74% of them would be small lot single family homes and 26% of them would be conventional lot single family homes. The next largest land use category would be retail space with at least 25% of the developed land dedicated to retail space. Finally, about 5% of the land would be dedicated to office space and 3% of the developed land dedicated to industrial use.

This land use mix would produce a neighborhood that is relatively homogeneous with a high commuter population. In the trends

scenario the jobs/housing balance would 1.1. While this number is not particularly low it could be improved with the addition of more

jobs in the site. 13 Additionally, continuing the pattern of relatively homogenous land use, most the jobs would be in retail with 22% of the

developed land use concentrated in retail and 67% of the jobs concentrated in the retail sectors.

Under the trends scenario the population of the site would explode. The current population of the site is just over 1000 people with 1,085 living in the site. The trend scenario would see that number swell to 21,359. As aforementioned, most of that growth would take place in a low density manner and thus the net density, in terms of people per acre, would decrease from 19.1 persons per acre

13 “Employment Housing Ratio.”