Market sees UP poll results as a litmus test for the BJP
UP POLLS 2017 - Markets have been consolidating and moving in a tight range ahead of the outcome of the assembly poll outcome in key states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur – to be announced on March 11. Analysts say the outcome could create distractions (or positives) for the government and will be interpreted as a referendum on the government’s demonetisation drive. The election outcome in UP (the biggest state by population), is being dubbed as the semi–final to the 2019 general elections, and appears to be heading towards a close fight. Here is a quick compilation of what the leading market experts think about the possible outcome and its implication for the economy and markets: Samir Arora, founder and fund manager, Helios Capital
We do not believe that outcome of state elections can be a big development for the market. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win in UP (the only election that matters in this round, if at all). Even if BJP does not win, we don’t think that investors will project this to derive conclusions about 2019 national elections. If BJP wins as expected, the market will have more reasons to go up for sure CLICK HERE FOR
THE FULL STORY Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura Uttar Pradesh is seen as a litmus test of Prime Minister Modi’s performance. Irrespective of the outcome, we expect government policies to stay prudent. A better performance for the BJP in the state elections would improve its seat tally in the upper house, although it is likely to remain below the halfway mark throughout its first term (until May 2019)
Also Read: Markets pricing in BJP win in UP, unfavourable outcome could see 10% fall
Porinju Veliyath, managing director and portfolio manager, Equity Intelligence Markets will go up regardless of who wins the UP elections. Significance of UP elections is largely limited to media discussion, and beyond that it’s the outcome that will only motivate the government to focus more on development. Most significant achievement of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi to me is that he has brought development to the centre-stage of Indian politics. CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY
ARTICLE SOURCE – BUSINESS STANDARD