Projected fall in legacy income not as bad as feared

Rescue centre offers a lifeline to injured wildlife

[LEGACY FORESIGHT has updated its UK market forecast for legacy income to take account of newly-available economic, demographic and administrative information.

Overall, the latest forecasts for 2020, published in June, are slightly more optimistic than those produced in April, with cash legacy income expected to shrink by between 4% and 23% in 2020. The average value of residual bequests is likely to drop by between 3% and 7% this year due to the impact of the pandemic on house and share prices.

In April Legacy Foresight forecast a more dramatic decline of 8% to 27% in legacy income over the coming year.

Importantly, over the five-year forecast period total legacy incomes are expected to grow, reaching £3.6bn to £3.8bn by 2024.

Jon Franklin, economist at Legacy Foresight, commented: “Our scenarios now suggest that legacy cash income could fall by between 4% and 23% in 2020, reflecting the economic environment as well as the delays in the sale of property assets from estates caused by a slow-moving housing market. However, as administrative delays unwind and income starts to flow from the anticipated increase in bequests, it’s likely that income could rise quite rapidly during 2021 and 2022.”

That expectation of income growth over the five-year period was also present in April.

Rob Cope of Remember A Charity said in an interview with Third Sector: “This year, we’ve seen some hefty losses in stocks, shares and property prices, which will almost certainly affect the value of residual legacies, particularly from high-net-worth individuals. After all, we know from The Sunday Times Rich List that COVID-19 cost the UK’s wealthiest people around £54bn in a matter of weeks and it will take some time before the market recovers.

“Although this year’s economic turbulence is more dramatic than most, we need to recognise that estate values will always rise and fall, often due to factors that are far beyond the sector’s control. That’s why it’s so important that we focus on increasing the prevalence of legacy giving, inspiring the giving public and securing income streams that will see charities through the years and decades that follow.”

However, writing in Charity Financials Top 100 Fundraisers Spotlight, Cathy Pharoah of the Centre for Giving and Philanthropy at Cass Business School posted a note of caution.

“Legacies are principally the expression of past goodwill and wealth. Relying on legacies may not be a sustainable strategy in a period of faltering global growth, with the effects of the COVID-19 crisis difficult to predict.” q [ HESSILHEAD WILDLIFE RESCUE TRUST is situated near Beith, in North Ayrshire. It was set up as a charity in 1986, although its founders Andy and Gay had been caring for injured and orphaned wildlife since 1970, when they rescued a fox cub from a gamekeeper and his dogs. As the number of casualties increased year on year, Andy and Gay needed financial and practical help.

Once the trust was set up, new aviaries and enclosures were built. A membership scheme proved popular and many volunteers were recruited. The centre now occupies a 20-acre site, including woodland, marsh and open water. That gives a variety of release sites for its patients.

Approximately 3,500 wildlife casualties are now treated each year, with the aim of returning them to the wild. Among the many hedgehogs, foxes and familiar garden birds there are deer, otters, badgers and seals. All have been rescued and are rehabilitated. In addition, swans are treated regularly, along with buzzards, peregrines, herons and sea birds.

The centre operates a 24-hour rescue service and there are more than 60 enclosures and aviaries, a hedgehog hospital, a seal/swan unit and intensive care facility. It also offers training courses on the handling, care and treatment of wildlife casualties.

Spring and summer are especially busy, with hundreds of nestling birds being hand reared. Care is taken to rear all youngsters with minimum human contact. That prevents wild birds and mammals becoming too used to people, so giving them a good chance of survival in the wild.

Hessilhead is primarily a voluntary organisation. Its volunteers help in many ways: fundraising, building and maintenance, driving patients to the centre and daily cleaning and feeding. q