Research 2008: Vulnerability to Climate Change (2008) by The Power Is In People

Research

Vulnerability to climate change in Umkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Report written by Dr Alison Misselhorn on behalf of Oxfam Australia

2008

Contents Acknowledgements

1. Summary

2. Background

of partners and community members from

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district

the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program

4 Climate change and vulnerability

who participated in an earlier research

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district

5.1 Background: climate change research and data

5.2 Climate change impacts

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude

Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input

process that informed the development of this publication. Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff in Melbourne and South Africa as well as editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Crop production

6.3 Rangelands

6.4 Human health

6.5. Degradation of biodiversity

6.6 Sea levels

6.7 Tourism

6.8. Natural disasters

7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude

7.1 Introduction

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

8. Conclusion

9. Glossary of terms

10. References

Contact details

Left: Elphinia Ngubane is a volunteer for the Simbambisene Community Centre and is seen here working on one of the Ubambo Community food security projects. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. Front Cover: Thandi Diamini standing in her hut made of wood and mud. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Contents Acknowledgements

1. Summary

2. Background

of partners and community members from

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district

the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program

4 Climate change and vulnerability

who participated in an earlier research

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district

5.1 Background: climate change research and data

5.2 Climate change impacts

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude

Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input

process that informed the development of this publication. Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff in Melbourne and South Africa as well as editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Crop production

6.3 Rangelands

6.4 Human health

6.5. Degradation of biodiversity

6.6 Sea levels

6.7 Tourism

6.8. Natural disasters

7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude

7.1 Introduction

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

8. Conclusion

9. Glossary of terms

10. References

Contact details

1. Summary 1. Summary The impacts of climate change apply significant risk on top of existing stressors that characterise the lives of vulnerable people. In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the Umkhanyakude Parternship Program, a food security program in the Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) that aims to strengthen food and nutrition security within the context of HIV and AIDS in the region. During the early stages of this program, climate change was identified as a particular threat to food security development, and Oxfam Australia commissioned this report to map a range of climate-related risks in the district and assess the vulnerability of communities to these risks.

Food security is determined by agricultural

and education. Umkhanyakude has the

production as well as by food availability (eg

highest malaria prevalence in the country,

food markets); food access (such as being

and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)

able to afford to buy food); consistency of

are the leading causes of morbidity and

food supply; and food utilisation and safety

mortality. Poor infrastructure and an

factors, which are affected by health and

absence of basic services are additional

sanitation. In all municipalities of

challenges facing the district. Overall,

Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,

changes in water resources and the

households spend more than half their

hydrological system are arguably the most

income on food which underscores that

profound environmental changes expected

food security is determined as much by the

with climate change.

ability to buy food as by the ability to grow it. It is clear that multiple factors shape peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s food security, and that the impact of climate change on food security is highly complex and extends beyond direct environmental impacts.

There is a strong two-way relationship between human health and food insecurity. Water is critical for food preparation and protecting against disease; with the likelihood of less water being available for drinking and sanitation, there is a greater

Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly

risk of water-borne disease. The climate

determined by underdevelopment, and this

is also likely to become more suitable for

is the key challenge that faces the

malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,

Umkhanyakude district. The district has a

standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall

history of underdevelopment, and is

timing, and extreme temperatures all affect

characterised by abject poverty, high rates

mosquito larval development, range, and

of unemployment, and low levels of literacy

malarial transmission rates.

Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Food security is determined by agricultural

and education. Umkhanyakude has the

production as well as by food availability (eg

highest malaria prevalence in the country,

food markets); food access (such as being

and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)

able to afford to buy food); consistency of

are the leading causes of morbidity and

food supply; and food utilisation and safety

mortality. Poor infrastructure and an

factors, which are affected by health and

absence of basic services are additional

sanitation. In all municipalities of

challenges facing the district. Overall,

Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,

changes in water resources and the

households spend more than half their

hydrological system are arguably the most

income on food which underscores that

profound environmental changes expected

food security is determined as much by the

with climate change.

Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly

risk of water-borne disease. The climate

determined by underdevelopment, and this

is also likely to become more suitable for

is the key challenge that faces the

malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,

Umkhanyakude district. The district has a

standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall

history of underdevelopment, and is

timing, and extreme temperatures all affect

characterised by abject poverty, high rates

mosquito larval development, range, and

of unemployment, and low levels of literacy

malarial transmission rates.

Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

2. Background

3. Overview 3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district The Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme (ISRDP) forms part of the South African Government’s Umhlabuyalingana Jozini

strategy to improve the wellbeing and opportunities of the rural poor. The first phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district municipalities, known as nodes, of which Umkhanyakude District Municipality is

St Lucia Park The Big 5 False Bay

one. Initial findings indicate that poor infrastructure and basic services are some of the key challenges facing the

Hlabisa Mtubatuba

municipality. More than 60% of households do not have a telephone connection, less than 30% of households are connected to the electricity supply, and more than 75%

Figure one: The municipalities within South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.

The northern municipality of 2

Umkhanyakude District Municipality is one of KwaZulu-Natal’s 10 district councils and consists of five local municipalities and one district-managed area. The 2001 census estimates a population of some 590,000 people, with the highest dependency ratio

2. Background

(children under 15 years to adults) and one

In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the

are occurring. These include increasing

Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with

deforestation due to people removing wood

the aim of strengthening food and nutrition

for domestic use which is leading to soil

security within the context of HIV and AIDS

degradation, increased rainfall variability,

in the region. The food security program

warmer winters, and increased incidence

partners identified climate change as one

and length of drought. These in turn are

of the issues that needs to be addressed

affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,

HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the

within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities

and food security.1

leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4

Above: Nokhutula Dlamini is 23 years old and looks after four other children in this parentless household. Here she is seen outside in the open with her hut in the background. The Ubombo Centre helps this family by giving them food parcels, school uniforms and paying their school fees. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

a number of long-term environmental trends

of the highest percentages of vulnerable groups (women, children and the elderly) of all districts in KwaZulu-Natal. Abject poverty is experienced by about 77% of the district’s population.3 The district has the highest malaria prevalence in the country.

Umhlabuyalingana has the highest levels of chronic malnutrition and underweight children, ahead of Hlabisa, which is the largest municipality in terms of population size. The municipalities of Mtubatuba, rural Umkhanyakude (where 62,000 households are reported to suffer from lack of food) and The Big Five False Bay show improving trends in wasting indicating a general 5

sanitation facilities and a potable water supply.7 Critical shortages of health facilities are of great concern considering HIV and AIDS prevalence is higher in KwaZulu-Natal than in other South African provinces. HIV and AIDS prevalence ranges from about 20% to 44% and is estimated to average between 20% and 30% within Umkhanyakude district.8

improvement in the malnutrition situation.

income on food, even in areas where crops

2. At the time of writing, the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The new name is used throughout this report except in the maps which were compiled prior to the name change.

are grown intensively. A significant

3. Karumbidza (2007).

In all municipalities except Mtubatuba, households spend more than half their

percentage of income is also spent on transport due to remoteness from urban areas and markets (in some municipalities more than 20% of income is spent

1. Sterrett (2007).

of households do not have access to basic

on transport).6

4. Zondi (2004). 5. Children whose weight for height is significantly below the norm. 6. DoA (2006). 7. IDT (2007). 8. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health Annual Report available at http://www.kznhealth.gov.za/ annualreport2002.2003.pdf

2. Background

3. Overview 3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district The Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme (ISRDP) forms part of the South African Government’s Umhlabuyalingana Jozini

strategy to improve the wellbeing and opportunities of the rural poor. The first phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district municipalities, known as nodes, of which Umkhanyakude District Municipality is

St Lucia Park The Big 5 False Bay

one. Initial findings indicate that poor infrastructure and basic services are some of the key challenges facing the

Hlabisa Mtubatuba

municipality. More than 60% of households do not have a telephone connection, less than 30% of households are connected to the electricity supply, and more than 75%

Figure one: The municipalities within South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.

The northern municipality of 2

2. Background

(children under 15 years to adults) and one

In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the

are occurring. These include increasing

Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with

deforestation due to people removing wood

the aim of strengthening food and nutrition

for domestic use which is leading to soil

security within the context of HIV and AIDS

degradation, increased rainfall variability,

in the region. The food security program

warmer winters, and increased incidence

partners identified climate change as one

and length of drought. These in turn are

of the issues that needs to be addressed

affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,

HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the

within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities

and food security.1

leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4

a number of long-term environmental trends

improvement in the malnutrition situation.

income on food, even in areas where crops

are grown intensively. A significant

3. Karumbidza (2007).

In all municipalities except Mtubatuba, households spend more than half their

percentage of income is also spent on transport due to remoteness from urban areas and markets (in some municipalities more than 20% of income is spent

1. Sterrett (2007).

of households do not have access to basic

on transport).6

4. Vulnerability 4. Climate change and vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change in Umkhanyakude is characterised by the nature of these climate changes and by the interaction between climate and the areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current and future socio-economic and biophysical conditions. These conditions determine its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are enormous gaps in the understanding of the characteristics of climate change globally, and for southern Africa, including the nature of its impacts on key areas such as human health, agriculture, tourism and ecosystems. Much of the climate-related research on human health has focused on malaria, but many uncertainties still exist about how malaria will spread and research is also needed into other diseases, such as dengue fever and meningitis.12 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Several other health risks characterise

The high incidence of orphans throughout

desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,

vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The

South Africa is of particular concern. It is

poor access to services and education,

second-highest cause of mortality in the

estimated that, given no significant changes

emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate

district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about

in sexual behaviour or health interventions,

change is likely to add a further dimension

65% of TB cases being co-infected with

by 2015 around one third of children under

to this risk profile.

HIV. The climate throughout the district is

the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost

also suitable for endemic malaria, with

one or both parents, largely as a result of

northern Umkhanyakude considered a high

the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10

risk area where anti-malarial drugs are

Orphans are already at enormous socio-

recommended for all travellers.

economic risk, being more vulnerable than

children with parents to food insecurity,

Above: Coordinator for the Ingwavuma Orphan Care Centre speaks with Ugogo Eunice Thumbela, Nomobo Mavundia and Ncamsile Mavundla about the issues they are dealing with in their community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. 9. See www.mara.org.za and www.malaria.org.za/ Malaria_Risk/Risk_Maps/risk_maps.htm 10. Freeman & Nkomo (2006). 11. Ibid.

Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report confirms that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, particularly in the face of multiple stresses and underlying vulnerabilities.13

Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. 12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.

The high incidence of orphans throughout

desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,

vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The

South Africa is of particular concern. It is

poor access to services and education,

second-highest cause of mortality in the

estimated that, given no significant changes

emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate

district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about

in sexual behaviour or health interventions,

change is likely to add a further dimension

65% of TB cases being co-infected with

by 2015 around one third of children under

to this risk profile.

HIV. The climate throughout the district is

the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost

also suitable for endemic malaria, with

one or both parents, largely as a result of

northern Umkhanyakude considered a high

the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10

risk area where anti-malarial drugs are

Orphans are already at enormous socio-

recommended for all travellers.

economic risk, being more vulnerable than

children with parents to food insecurity,

Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. 12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.

5. Projected climate change

6. Food security

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 5.1 Background: climate change research and data

5.2 Climate change impacts

Extremely limited climate change research

the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant

has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,

to the Umkhanyakude district and climate

despite the enormous and diverse quantity

modelling is constantly being refined.

of environmental research that has gone into

Climate responses may in reality vary within

the development of the iSimangaliso

kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider

Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14

anthropogenic interventions, responses and

At present, the only climate change-related

adaptations, such as land-use change,

research in the park is looking at changes

policy changes, demographic changes, and

in river flow and is very much in its early

so on. Thus they can only highlight

stages. No research into climate

directions for thinking about risk analysis in

change vulnerability and adaptation

the district. Some of the main impacts of

in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to

climate change on the district are likely to be:

inform this report, indicating the urgent need for expanding adaptation-orientated climate change research in South and southern Africa.

A number of general conclusions about

• lower rainfall;

Water is arguably South Africa’s most limiting natural resource.17 The impacts on vulnerability described in this section are extensively, though not exclusively, shaped by rainfall and hydrological responses to climate change. There are numerous links between climate change and water resources, and changes in water resources are arguably the most profound environmental changes related to climate change.18 South Africa is already a high risk hydro-climatic environment characterised by some of the most highly variable rainfalls and stream-flows worldwide, and the management of surface water and groundwater is already challenging.19

• wetter summers, drier winters;

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude

• higher temperatures; • increased hydrological risk and uncertainty;

6.1 Introduction

• high incidence of extreme rainfall days;

still result due to entitlement failure —

from this summary that the impacts will

inability to buy it, grow it, be given

be extremely complex, and will involve

it or work for it.

direct changes to food production systems

• Food stability: maintaining the

• drying of top soils;

It has long been recognised that food

availability, accessibility and use of

• less water for drinking,

security is about more than food production.

food over time in the face of a variety

sanitation and irrigation;

There are a number of determinants of

of natural, economic, social and policy

• less water in the soil for plants; and

food security, each of which applies

shocks and stresses.

• increases in irrigation

across scales:20

requirements for crops.16

14. The most recent available climate change research for South Africa is a report by multiple authors and institutions, published by the South African Water Research Commission, entitled Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation (2005).

• Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,

• Food availability: ensuring that a wide

prepared, distributed and eaten in ways

variety of food is available in local markets

that are nutritionally adequate for all

and from own production to supply

members of the household, including

sufficient per capita food.

men and women, girls and boys.

16. Schulze (2005b).

• Food access: focuses on demand-side

Possible impacts of climate change

17. Schulze (2005c).

failures; even where there is sufficient

on three aspects of food security are

production of food, food insecurity may

summarised in Figure two. It is clear

15. Jarvis et al (2006).

18. Ibid. 19. Schulze (2005d).

and affect employment and livelihoods. Many of the interactions and outcomes will be highly localised, being dependent on local socio-economic dynamics, resources, and human responses. It is therefore difficult to predict the exact food security vulnerabilities that will arise.

Above: Cabangile Myeni is a single mother of three, from Jozini, South Africa, cares for her sister’s two orphaned children. Local partner Simbambisene supports the family with food parcels and seeds to grow a home garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. 20. FAO (2007).

5. Projected climate change

6. Food security

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 5.1 Background: climate change research and data

5.2 Climate change impacts

Extremely limited climate change research

the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant

has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,

to the Umkhanyakude district and climate

despite the enormous and diverse quantity

modelling is constantly being refined.

of environmental research that has gone into

Climate responses may in reality vary within

the development of the iSimangaliso

kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider

Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14

anthropogenic interventions, responses and

At present, the only climate change-related

adaptations, such as land-use change,

research in the park is looking at changes

policy changes, demographic changes, and

in river flow and is very much in its early

so on. Thus they can only highlight

stages. No research into climate

directions for thinking about risk analysis in

change vulnerability and adaptation

the district. Some of the main impacts of

in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to

climate change on the district are likely to be:

inform this report, indicating the urgent need for expanding adaptation-orientated climate change research in South and southern Africa.

A number of general conclusions about

• lower rainfall;

• wetter summers, drier winters;

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude

• higher temperatures; • increased hydrological risk and uncertainty;

6.1 Introduction

• high incidence of extreme rainfall days;

still result due to entitlement failure —

from this summary that the impacts will

inability to buy it, grow it, be given

be extremely complex, and will involve

it or work for it.

direct changes to food production systems

• Food stability: maintaining the

• drying of top soils;

It has long been recognised that food

availability, accessibility and use of

• less water for drinking,

security is about more than food production.

food over time in the face of a variety

sanitation and irrigation;

There are a number of determinants of

of natural, economic, social and policy

• less water in the soil for plants; and

food security, each of which applies

shocks and stresses.

• increases in irrigation

across scales:20

requirements for crops.16

• Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,

• Food availability: ensuring that a wide

prepared, distributed and eaten in ways

variety of food is available in local markets

that are nutritionally adequate for all

and from own production to supply

members of the household, including

sufficient per capita food.

men and women, girls and boys.

16. Schulze (2005b).

• Food access: focuses on demand-side

Possible impacts of climate change

17. Schulze (2005c).

failures; even where there is sufficient

on three aspects of food security are

production of food, food insecurity may

summarised in Figure two. It is clear

15. Jarvis et al (2006).

18. Ibid. 19. Schulze (2005d).

Food availability

Food access

1. Direct effect on crop yields (cereals, 1. Direct impact on agricultural zones vegitables, fruits and edible oils), rangelands affecting incomes and jobs, and the macro and meat production, fisheries and wild food economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in sources; through elevated CO2 levels, number of ways, eg forms of social protection.3 variations in temperature and precipitation, 2. Direct effect on human health and susceptibility and length of growing season, increases in to diseases such as malaria and AIDS which crop pests and diseases and altering soil undermine livelihoods capability and food security.4 1 fertility (eg desiccation and salination) 3. Indirect alterations to social economic aspects 2. Indirect environmental feedbacks through of livelihoods, food systems and development responses such as use of marginal lands processes through human responses, eg increasing degradation and influencing land use and adaption responses.5 2 micro - and macro climates. Climate change

and food security

6.2 Crop production 2001 census data indicate that nearly 95% of the district’s population are rural dwellers, and many households in Umkhanyakude rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet some of their food requirements. Hlabisa is

1. Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods, including protein contents, gluten content of grains, and toxin levels from pests and diseases.6 2. Direct effect on human health and thus ability to absorb nutrients through increasing vunerability to disease (such as AIDS and malaria).7

Figure two: Links between climate change in Africa and three major components of food security (this synthesis first appeared in published form in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report).

pregnancy and foetal development,

soils, less water in the soil for plants, and

lactation, and resistance to and recovery

increased irrigation requirements. 23 Such

from disease. In turn, disease prevents

a change may have serious implications

people from being able to invest in the

for food security and livelihoods locally

human capital necessary to avoiding

and nationally.

food insecurity, for example the capacity to develop successful responses and

6.3 Rangelands

adaptations to vulnerability.

agriculture is the most wide-spread,

South Africa has extensive land

The choice, preparation and intake of

covering most of the municipality.

degradation challenges. Much of the land

food are influenced by food access and

In the Big Five False Bay municipality,

covered by the Umkhanyakude district is

availability, education, culture, and food

there are large areas under commercial

estimated to suffer from light to moderate

preferences. It necessitates access to

and subsistence agriculture. 21

combined soil and veldt degradation. The

clean water, and is also highly influenced by

former homeland areas — which include One of the greatest difficulties in

access to refrigeration, sanitation and other

the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated

considering the impact of climate change

resources. The effects of climate change

to be the most susceptible to further

on agriculture is that crop and vegetation

described above, in which there is likely to

degradation in the face of climate change. 24

be reduced water for drinking and sanitation

the municipality in which subsistence

Nutrient access

increased rainfall variability, drying of top

responses to change have been projected to be highly localised. For the majority of cultivated land, the most likely best-case scenario is that small reductions in yield will occur. 22 1. Rosegrant & Cline, 2003; AIACC, 2004; Turpie et al, 2002; The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al, 2002; Swaminathan, 2000. 2. The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al., 2002.

the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture

3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.

in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively

4. Turpie et al, 2002; Mano et al, 2003; Piot & Pinstrup-Andersen, 2002; van Lieshout et al, 2004; Gommes et al, 2004; USAID, 2003. 5. Brooks et al, 2005; AIACC, 2004; Gregory et al, 2005; Thomas & Twyman, 2005; O'Brien, 2006; Adger & Vincent, 2005.

affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher

6. The Royal Society, 2005.

temperatures, increased hydrological risk,

7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.

The most recent climate projections for

6.4 Human health

in the district, could increase the likelihood of disease.

The links between health and food security Food insecurity and poor health are closely related. Food insecurity may lead to a state of malnutrition which impairs physical

Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

functioning, compromises the ability to work, and affects development processes such as growth (height and weight),

21. DoA (2006). 22. Jarvis et al (2006). 23. Schulze (2005a). 24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).

Food availability

Food access

and food security

Figure two: Links between climate change in Africa and three major components of food security (this synthesis first appeared in published form in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report).

pregnancy and foetal development,

soils, less water in the soil for plants, and

lactation, and resistance to and recovery

increased irrigation requirements. 23 Such

from disease. In turn, disease prevents

a change may have serious implications

people from being able to invest in the

for food security and livelihoods locally

human capital necessary to avoiding

and nationally.

food insecurity, for example the capacity to develop successful responses and

6.3 Rangelands

adaptations to vulnerability.

agriculture is the most wide-spread,

South Africa has extensive land

The choice, preparation and intake of

covering most of the municipality.

degradation challenges. Much of the land

food are influenced by food access and

In the Big Five False Bay municipality,

covered by the Umkhanyakude district is

availability, education, culture, and food

there are large areas under commercial

estimated to suffer from light to moderate

preferences. It necessitates access to

and subsistence agriculture. 21

combined soil and veldt degradation. The

clean water, and is also highly influenced by

former homeland areas — which include One of the greatest difficulties in

access to refrigeration, sanitation and other

the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated

considering the impact of climate change

resources. The effects of climate change

to be the most susceptible to further

on agriculture is that crop and vegetation

described above, in which there is likely to

degradation in the face of climate change. 24

be reduced water for drinking and sanitation

the municipality in which subsistence

Nutrient access

increased rainfall variability, drying of top

the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture

3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.

in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively

affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher

6. The Royal Society, 2005.

temperatures, increased hydrological risk,

7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.

The most recent climate projections for

6.4 Human health

in the district, could increase the likelihood of disease.

The links between health and food security Food insecurity and poor health are closely related. Food insecurity may lead to a state of malnutrition which impairs physical

Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

functioning, compromises the ability to work, and affects development processes such as growth (height and weight),

21. DoA (2006). 22. Jarvis et al (2006). 23. Schulze (2005a). 24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).

Climate related diseases

Cholera

A number of climate-mediated diseases

A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal

exist, and climate has impacts on human

demonstrates the widespread primary

health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking

and secondary impacts that climate change

water and food. In general, warmer and

might have on aspects of human health and

more extreme climate shifts are likely

disease risk. While cholera is associated

to exacerbate disease and health risks. 25

with a number of anthropogenic factors,

Changes in climate have the potential

including poor sanitation and overcrowding,

to exacerbate:

climate-related environmental factors affect

• mortality among those who are sick, old or weak through illness due to extreme heat or cold, which also has implications for maternal health; • air pollution; • aero-allergens; • fungi and moulds; • water- and food-borne diseases, for example, giardia, cholera, cryptosporidium, rotaviruses, enteroviruses, coxsackie viruses, cyclospora, and hepatitis A and E viruses; • seasonal influenza; • rodent-borne disease; and • changes in distribution of insect vectors of disease, for example, malaria. In general, Umkhanyakude might expect to

the survival of environmental reservoirs of the pathogen that causes cholera outbreaks. Malaria The incidence and transmission of malaria is largely limited by climate. Seasonal changes (inter-annual changes) in the number of cases of malaria in KwaZuluNatal have been found to be significantly associated with several climate variables. 26 Rainfall variability, humidity and standing water affect the water available for breading. Small differences in climate were found to have marked effects on the intensity of malaria transmission, even in areas subject to malaria control for many years. 27

Moreover, both drug resistance and levels of HIV infection have been found to be particularly significant factors in the incidence of malaria. A 2005 study found estimated proportional increases of 28% for malaria incidence and 114% for malaria deaths across southern Africa due to the impact of HIV. 28 Increased malaria would have extensive repercussions for livelihoods and resilience, and would also result in a considerable burden on health services. Other vector-borne diseases Africa is susceptible to a number of vector-borne diseases over and above malaria. These include diseases such as schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trypanosomiasis, yellow fever and tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers. 29 South Africa has been found to be one of the most vulnerable countries in Africa to climateinduced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases.30 These changes are likely to herald an associated increase in numerous tick-borne pathogens which infect livestock and people.

see increases in illness or mortality related to higher temperatures, water-borne diseases, and malaria.

Left: Collecting water at Ingwavuma Orphan Care. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. 25. Comrie (2007). 26. Craig et al (2004b). 27. Kleinschmidt et al (2001). 28. Korenromp et al (2005). 29. Githeko et al (2000). 30. Olwoch (2005).

Climate related diseases

Cholera

A number of climate-mediated diseases

A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal

exist, and climate has impacts on human

demonstrates the widespread primary

health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking

and secondary impacts that climate change

water and food. In general, warmer and

might have on aspects of human health and

more extreme climate shifts are likely

disease risk. While cholera is associated

to exacerbate disease and health risks. 25

with a number of anthropogenic factors,

Changes in climate have the potential

including poor sanitation and overcrowding,

to exacerbate:

climate-related environmental factors affect

see increases in illness or mortality related to higher temperatures, water-borne diseases, and malaria.

6.5 Degradation of biodiversity

KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth

from natural hazards such as floods; and

of South Africa’s remaining indigenous

cultural services, which satisfy human

forest, and is unique in that it supports

spiritual and aesthetic needs.34

The ability of many ecosystems to adapt

both the major forest types of the southern

Indigenous forest is a critical element

naturally is likely to be exceeded by a

African subcontinent — Afromontane forest

in the maintenance of biodiversity and

combination of global change drivers

and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —

provides an important livelihood resource

(such as land-use change) and climate

and their eight subtypes.33 The province

for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.

change.31 This will be associated with a high

is thus important for maintaining forest

risk of extinction of many plant and animal

diversity, and thus the biodiversity in

species. Aquatic ecosystems, including

South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains

wetlands, are in the worst condition:

several areas comprising more than

about 54% of rivers in South Africa are

50 hectares of indigenous forest,

considered endangered, more than 50% of

representing all eight subtypes.

Changes in biodiversity in South Africa

wetlands have already been destroyed, and about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are considered threatened.

Importance of biodiversity Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a number of “services” for human wellbeing

6.7 Tourism

6.8 Natural disasters

Changes in sea level are expected to

Climate change is expected to have a

There is wide agreement that climate

affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries

significant impact on the tourism sector,

change will result in an increased risk

and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.

which will have associated impacts on

of frequency and intensity of droughts

Major impacts are expected on freshwater

livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through

and floods in southern Africa.39 The

availability (for example from affected

effects on employment and incomes.

observations of farmers and development

groundwater resources), fisheries, health,

The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude

practitioners as well as policy makers and

recreation and tourism, biodiversity and

are some of the most pristine dune

planners to some extent support that

human settlements resulting from extreme

environments in the world, and their

drought frequency is increasing in southern

events, flooding, seawater temperature

erosion would be a significant loss in

Africa as well as South Africa.

changes, rising water tables, and salt

terms of tourism and livelihoods.

water intrusions.35

already a natural feature of South African

While the exact biophysical and human

South Africa that will accrue from factors

rainfall patterns, and much of the country

impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are

such as loss of biodiversity and sea level

has always been affected by aridity,

not yet known, scientists are confident that

changes are not yet possible to quantify.

droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts

livelihoods in coastal areas of developing countries are more vulnerable to the

as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;

impacts of sea-level rises than those in

water regulation, air and water purification, disease and pest regulation and protection

31. Fischlin et al (2007). 32. DEAT (2006). 33. Eeley et al (1999). 34. Fischlin et al (2007). 35. Nicholls et al (2007).

Highly variable rainfall between years is

The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for

including provisioning services, such regulating services, such as climate and

Above: Visiting one of the child headed households in the Kwamandonya district, volunteers meet with the eldest member of the household to discuss how they are doing and how their situation can be improved on. These types of households are indicative of the poverty in the district highlighting the vulnerabilities experienced within the community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

6.6 Sea levels

predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest 35. Nicholls et al (2007). 36. Ibid. 37. Turpie et al (2002).

developed countries. The impact on the

38. Ibid.

coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be

39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).

largely erosion of the coastline.37

increased deviations in annual precipitation from the average. There is also predicted to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41

40. Schulze (2005d). 41. Schulze (2005b).

6.5 Degradation of biodiversity

KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth

from natural hazards such as floods; and

of South Africa’s remaining indigenous

cultural services, which satisfy human

forest, and is unique in that it supports

spiritual and aesthetic needs.34

The ability of many ecosystems to adapt

both the major forest types of the southern

Indigenous forest is a critical element

naturally is likely to be exceeded by a

African subcontinent — Afromontane forest

in the maintenance of biodiversity and

combination of global change drivers

and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —

provides an important livelihood resource

(such as land-use change) and climate

and their eight subtypes.33 The province

for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.

change.31 This will be associated with a high

is thus important for maintaining forest

risk of extinction of many plant and animal

diversity, and thus the biodiversity in

species. Aquatic ecosystems, including

South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains

wetlands, are in the worst condition:

several areas comprising more than

about 54% of rivers in South Africa are

50 hectares of indigenous forest,

considered endangered, more than 50% of

representing all eight subtypes.

Changes in biodiversity in South Africa

wetlands have already been destroyed, and about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are considered threatened.

Importance of biodiversity Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a number of “services” for human wellbeing

6.7 Tourism

6.8 Natural disasters

Changes in sea level are expected to

Climate change is expected to have a

There is wide agreement that climate

affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries

significant impact on the tourism sector,

change will result in an increased risk

and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.

which will have associated impacts on

of frequency and intensity of droughts

Major impacts are expected on freshwater

livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through

and floods in southern Africa.39 The

availability (for example from affected

effects on employment and incomes.

observations of farmers and development

groundwater resources), fisheries, health,

The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude

practitioners as well as policy makers and

recreation and tourism, biodiversity and

are some of the most pristine dune

planners to some extent support that

human settlements resulting from extreme

environments in the world, and their

drought frequency is increasing in southern

events, flooding, seawater temperature

erosion would be a significant loss in

Africa as well as South Africa.

changes, rising water tables, and salt

terms of tourism and livelihoods.

water intrusions.35

already a natural feature of South African

While the exact biophysical and human

South Africa that will accrue from factors

rainfall patterns, and much of the country

impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are

such as loss of biodiversity and sea level

has always been affected by aridity,

not yet known, scientists are confident that

changes are not yet possible to quantify.

droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts

livelihoods in coastal areas of developing countries are more vulnerable to the

as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;

impacts of sea-level rises than those in

water regulation, air and water purification, disease and pest regulation and protection

31. Fischlin et al (2007). 32. DEAT (2006). 33. Eeley et al (1999). 34. Fischlin et al (2007). 35. Nicholls et al (2007).

Highly variable rainfall between years is

The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for

including provisioning services, such regulating services, such as climate and

6.6 Sea levels

predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest 35. Nicholls et al (2007). 36. Ibid. 37. Turpie et al (2002).

developed countries. The impact on the

38. Ibid.

coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be

39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).

largely erosion of the coastline.37

increased deviations in annual precipitation from the average. There is also predicted to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41

40. Schulze (2005d). 41. Schulze (2005b).

7. Mapping vulnerability 7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

7.1 Introduction

The indicators

Because adaptive capacity is an element

Table one summarises the factors that

of vulnerability, the indicators used to

are included in a vulnerability index for

“measure” vulnerability to climate change

Umkhanyakude district. These were

(in terms of exposure to risk) and the

developed through drawing on the

capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.

vulnerability literature, but choices

Factors that are typically considered

were necessarily also determined by

determinants of vulnerability include

available information.

economic wellbeing and stability,

Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the

demographic structure, institutional stability and wellbeing, and the connections between individuals, communities and the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,

to the composite index.47 This percentage

Broad determinants of vulnerability,

is based on a theoretical understanding

and components of the UVI

of that component’s relative importance to

Broad determinants of vulnerability,

vulnerability, based on an understanding

and components of the UVI

of the dynamics of vulnerability in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider

Interconnectivity (20%)

Clinics (15%)

Schools (15%)

regarding the importance of the indicators

Description

Ratio of population to clinics. Calculated at municipal level since many wards have no clinics, and some clinics fall on ward boundaries. Ratio of population under 18 years to schools. Calculated at municipal level since many schools fall on ward boundaries.

Department of Health

Department of Education

the literature. 42. Vincent (2004).

to its broad component of the UVI, and the

44. Alberini et al (2006)

Economic wellbeing (25%)

Percentage of adults with no high school education.

Census 2001

Road access (20%)

Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area.

Knowledge Factory 2006

Poverty (50%)

Percentage of households in each ward with no income.

Census 2001

Employment (50%)

Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward.

Census 2001

Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed

Human Sciences Resource

10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.

Council (HSRC) 2007

Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines.

Census 2001

45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005). 46. Fussel (2005).

Health and security (25%)

47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).

Malnutrition (10%)

These indicators represent primarily

of factors such as economic wellbeing,

“internal” factors that determine the

education and skills, information access

sensitivity of people to hazards, including

Access to

and access to other resources,

climate change, and their capacity to

potable water (20%)

Sanitation (10%)

Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within

respond and adapt.45 The “external” or

Recent research fielding expert opinion

exposure factors might include, in addition

Water-borne

Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,

on the effects of climate change on human

to climate changes, national policies,

disease risk (20%)

stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.

health, for example, found that experts

national economic issues and global

regarded per capita income, inequality

policies.46 However, it would be too

in the distribution of income, universal

complex to include such external factors

healthcare coverage, and high access to

in a map of this scale.

Orphans (20%)

Demographic structure (20%)

Census 2001

200m from house.

infrastructure, and institutional issues.43

the capacity to adapt to climate change.

Data source

Education (50%)

adaptive capacity is considered a function

information as important determinants of

Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded “no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.

Census 2001

Informal housing (20%)

Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack.

Census 2001

Age distribution (60%)

Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs).

Census 2001

Gender ratio (40%)

Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward.

Census 2001

Employment in

Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry

agricultural sector (50%)

and fishing sectors in each ward.

Natural resource dependence (10%)

Indicators

literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties

43. O’Brien et al (2004).

component to the overall index.

Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

in the table contributes a given percentage

percentage contribution of each indicator percentage contribution of each broad

institutions beyond the local level and

Each broad component of vulnerability

Census 2001

7. Mapping vulnerability 7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

7.1 Introduction

The indicators

Because adaptive capacity is an element

Table one summarises the factors that

of vulnerability, the indicators used to

are included in a vulnerability index for

“measure” vulnerability to climate change

Umkhanyakude district. These were

(in terms of exposure to risk) and the

developed through drawing on the

capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.

vulnerability literature, but choices

Factors that are typically considered

were necessarily also determined by

determinants of vulnerability include

available information.

economic wellbeing and stability,

Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the

demographic structure, institutional stability and wellbeing, and the connections between individuals, communities and the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,

to the composite index.47 This percentage

Broad determinants of vulnerability,

is based on a theoretical understanding

and components of the UVI

of that component’s relative importance to

Broad determinants of vulnerability,

vulnerability, based on an understanding

and components of the UVI

of the dynamics of vulnerability in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider

Interconnectivity (20%)

Clinics (15%)

Schools (15%)

regarding the importance of the indicators

Description

Department of Health

Department of Education

the literature. 42. Vincent (2004).

to its broad component of the UVI, and the

44. Alberini et al (2006)

Economic wellbeing (25%)

Percentage of adults with no high school education.

Census 2001

Road access (20%)

Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area.

Knowledge Factory 2006

Poverty (50%)

Percentage of households in each ward with no income.

Census 2001

Employment (50%)

Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward.

Census 2001

Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed

Human Sciences Resource

10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.

Council (HSRC) 2007

Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines.

Census 2001

45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005). 46. Fussel (2005).

Health and security (25%)

47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).

Malnutrition (10%)

These indicators represent primarily

of factors such as economic wellbeing,

“internal” factors that determine the

education and skills, information access

sensitivity of people to hazards, including

Access to

and access to other resources,

climate change, and their capacity to

potable water (20%)

Sanitation (10%)

Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within

respond and adapt.45 The “external” or

Recent research fielding expert opinion

exposure factors might include, in addition

Water-borne

Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,

on the effects of climate change on human

to climate changes, national policies,

disease risk (20%)

stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.

health, for example, found that experts

national economic issues and global

regarded per capita income, inequality

policies.46 However, it would be too

in the distribution of income, universal

complex to include such external factors

healthcare coverage, and high access to

in a map of this scale.

Orphans (20%)

Demographic structure (20%)

Census 2001

200m from house.

infrastructure, and institutional issues.43

the capacity to adapt to climate change.

Data source

Education (50%)

adaptive capacity is considered a function

information as important determinants of

Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded “no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.

Census 2001

Informal housing (20%)

Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack.

Census 2001

Age distribution (60%)

Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs).

Census 2001

Gender ratio (40%)

Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward.

Census 2001

Employment in

Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry

agricultural sector (50%)

and fishing sectors in each ward.

Natural resource dependence (10%)

Indicators

literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties

43. O’Brien et al (2004).

component to the overall index.

Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

in the table contributes a given percentage

percentage contribution of each indicator percentage contribution of each broad

institutions beyond the local level and

Each broad component of vulnerability

Census 2001

Method of developing the UVI The smallest scale at which the above

indicating the overall vulnerability of each

the broad components of vulnerability.

Figure three:

ward relative to other wards (figure three).

HIV and AIDS were omitted because no

The Umkhanyakude

data are available below provincial level.

Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48

data was consistently available was at ward

It is important to emphasise that the UVI

level. In creating the UVI, values for each

is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,

indicator and each ward were extracted.

but rather an indicator of relative

All indicators were standardised so that

vulnerability between wards in the

the highest value in the range equated to 1,

Umkhanyakude district. The whole of

and the lowest value in the range equated

the Umkhanyakude district is considered

to 0. In some cases this involved a

economically and socially vulnerable;

transformation of the data so that the

the aim of this mapping is to give some

highest figure always equated to the

indication of relative vulnerability,

greatest vulnerability. These values were

suggesting which wards may be more or

then summed to make up the six broad

less vulnerable to the impacts of climate

components, contributing the stated

change than others.

percentages to the total. In turn, each component was summed to contribute its stated percentage to the overall UVI for each ward. The summed figures for the wards were then ranked as a percentage of the whole data set, thus returning a number

Two factors that would have been ideal to include in the UVI had to be omitted.

uMkhanykude UVI Index

52702015

Land degradation would have been the

component, and environmental sensitivity which would have been included among

52701009 52702013

52701011

some of the area is classified as “severely 52702011

52701004

52701008 52701008

same ward is classified as only “marginally

Umhlabuyalingana

52702010

degraded” or even “good”. Creating 52702008

an average figure for each ward would

52701005

52702009

52701007

52702006 52702007JOZINI

therefore not have been meaningful.

MAPUTA

EMANGUSI 52702012

degraded” while other land within the

52701002

52701003

MBAZWANA

52702005

52702002

Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

52701010

INGWAVUMA NS/NU

52702014

sensitivity. However, in some wards

52701012

NDUMO

INGWAVUMA

indicator selected for environmental

52702004 52702003

St Lucia Park

MKUZE

These were HIV and AIDS which would have contributed to the health and security

52702016

Jozini

52799000

52799000 UBOMBO NS/NU

48. As noted earlier, at the time of writing the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The old name is used in the maps, however, since these were compiled prior to the name change.

52702001

UBOMBO (NATAL) 52703002 52703001

The Big 5 False Bay 52704006 52704005

52703004

HLUHLUWE 52704007

52704004

St Lucia Park

MTHETHWA 52703003 52799000 52704009 52704001 HLABISA NS/NU 52704002 52704006 HLABISA 52704019 52704010 52704011 NYALAZI RIVER 52704017 52799000 52705003 52704018 52704012 SOMKELE 52704016 52704015 52704013 52704014 UBATUBA ST.LUCIA ESTUARY 52705005 52705001 52705002 52705004 KWAMSAME RIVER VIEW 52704003

Hlabisa

St Lucia Park

Mtubatuba

Legend 10

Municipality

0.000 - 0.200

0.201 - 0.300

0.301 - 0.400

0.401 - 0.500

0.501 - 0.600

0.601 - 0.700

0.701 - 0.800

0.801 - 1.000 Towns

Kilometers

Method of developing the UVI The smallest scale at which the above

indicating the overall vulnerability of each

the broad components of vulnerability.

Figure three:

ward relative to other wards (figure three).

HIV and AIDS were omitted because no

The Umkhanyakude

data are available below provincial level.

Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48

data was consistently available was at ward

It is important to emphasise that the UVI

level. In creating the UVI, values for each

is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,

indicator and each ward were extracted.

but rather an indicator of relative

All indicators were standardised so that

vulnerability between wards in the

the highest value in the range equated to 1,

Umkhanyakude district. The whole of

and the lowest value in the range equated

the Umkhanyakude district is considered

to 0. In some cases this involved a

economically and socially vulnerable;

transformation of the data so that the

the aim of this mapping is to give some

highest figure always equated to the

indication of relative vulnerability,

greatest vulnerability. These values were

suggesting which wards may be more or

then summed to make up the six broad

less vulnerable to the impacts of climate

components, contributing the stated

change than others.

Two factors that would have been ideal to include in the UVI had to be omitted.

uMkhanykude UVI Index

52702015

Land degradation would have been the

component, and environmental sensitivity which would have been included among

52701009 52702013

52701011

some of the area is classified as “severely 52702011

52701004

52701008 52701008

same ward is classified as only “marginally

Umhlabuyalingana

52702010

degraded” or even “good”. Creating 52702008

an average figure for each ward would

52701005

52702009

52701007

52702006 52702007JOZINI

therefore not have been meaningful.

MAPUTA

EMANGUSI 52702012

degraded” while other land within the

52701002

52701003

MBAZWANA

52702005

52702002

Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

52701010

INGWAVUMA NS/NU

52702014

sensitivity. However, in some wards

52701012

NDUMO

INGWAVUMA

indicator selected for environmental

52702004 52702003

St Lucia Park

MKUZE

These were HIV and AIDS which would have contributed to the health and security

52702016

Jozini

52799000

52799000 UBOMBO NS/NU

52702001

UBOMBO (NATAL) 52703002 52703001

The Big 5 False Bay 52704006 52704005

52703004

HLUHLUWE 52704007

52704004

St Lucia Park

Hlabisa

St Lucia Park

Mtubatuba

Legend 10

Municipality

0.000 - 0.200

0.201 - 0.300

0.301 - 0.400

0.401 - 0.500

0.501 - 0.600

0.601 - 0.700

0.701 - 0.800

0.801 - 1.000 Towns

Kilometers

Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI Municipalities

The UVI is intended to indicate which wards

Table two lists all the wards that fall into the

In the light of this report as a whole,

are likely to be the most vulnerable to the

most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also

it is clear that the majority of communities

negative impacts of climate change across

notes under which component indices these

in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-

the district, while the component maps

wards were classified as most vulnerable.

constrained. Such communities in

provide an additional sense of the possible

This summary is intended to highlight the

KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple

nature of vulnerability in those wards. While

most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in

stresses that limit their livelihoods and

there are differences in the vulnerability of

the most vulnerable wards. For example, in

options in the face of change.49 This

wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three

ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the

makes for complex local dynamics in

clearly shows that a large percentage of

demographic structure of households

assessing vulnerability to climate change,

wards are classified as comparably

appears to be the characteristic that makes

and developing options of response.

vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,

households particularly vulnerable. By

Recent climate research among farmers

and are likely to have poor capacities to

contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019

in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms

adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most

in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by

this.50 While the vulnerability maps are

vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and

poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable

not intended to be “desktop guides”

in the most vulnerable categories of all

demographic structure, poor health and

to programming in Umkhanyakude,

component indices. iSimangaliso Park

security, as well as a high dependence

they flag particular vulnerabilities

(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),

on natural resources.

in geographic areas.

Jozini

52702015

Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI

absence of services in these areas

52702008

Umhlabuya-lingana

52701009 52701012 52701001 52701008

a a a a

52704004 52704005

52704008

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI

52704019

a a a

Mtubatuba iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps)

52705004 52799000

Some minimal Marginal Marginal

a a

Marginal Marginal

Most moderate Marginal

a a

Marginal

a a a a a

a a

a a a a

Land degradation

Most marginal

a a a

Marginal Mixed Mixed Mixed Mixed Mixed

a a

52704018 52704012

50. Ibid.

a a

52704010

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI

49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).

a a a

52704003

52704007

Natural resource dependency

Marginal

52701006

Hlabisa

Demographic structure

52702006

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI

Wider range of vulnerabilities

Health and security

52702013

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI

markedly increase their vulnerability rating.

Economic wellbeing

52701007

ward to do so. Despite its low population, risk category for malnutrition, and the

Interconnectivity

52702016

which is classified as one ward, is the only the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest

Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category

a a

Mostly poor Mixed Mixed Marginal

a a

Pristine Mixed

Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI Municipalities

The UVI is intended to indicate which wards

Table two lists all the wards that fall into the

In the light of this report as a whole,

are likely to be the most vulnerable to the

most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also

it is clear that the majority of communities

negative impacts of climate change across

notes under which component indices these

in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-

the district, while the component maps

wards were classified as most vulnerable.

constrained. Such communities in

provide an additional sense of the possible

This summary is intended to highlight the

KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple

nature of vulnerability in those wards. While

most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in

stresses that limit their livelihoods and

there are differences in the vulnerability of

the most vulnerable wards. For example, in

options in the face of change.49 This

wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three

ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the

makes for complex local dynamics in

clearly shows that a large percentage of

demographic structure of households

assessing vulnerability to climate change,

wards are classified as comparably

appears to be the characteristic that makes

and developing options of response.

vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,

households particularly vulnerable. By

Recent climate research among farmers

and are likely to have poor capacities to

contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019

in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms

adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most

in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by

this.50 While the vulnerability maps are

vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and

poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable

not intended to be “desktop guides”

in the most vulnerable categories of all

demographic structure, poor health and

to programming in Umkhanyakude,

component indices. iSimangaliso Park

security, as well as a high dependence

they flag particular vulnerabilities

(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),

on natural resources.

in geographic areas.

Jozini

52702015

Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI

absence of services in these areas

52702008

Umhlabuya-lingana

52701009 52701012 52701001 52701008

a a a a

52704004 52704005

52704008

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI

52704019

a a a

Mtubatuba iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps)

52705004 52799000

Some minimal Marginal Marginal

a a

Marginal Marginal

Most moderate Marginal

a a

Marginal

a a a a a

a a

a a a a

Land degradation

Most marginal

a a a

Marginal Mixed Mixed Mixed Mixed Mixed

a a

52704018 52704012

50. Ibid.

a a

52704010

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI

49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).

a a a

52704003

52704007

Natural resource dependency

Marginal

52701006

Hlabisa

Demographic structure

52702006

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI

Wider range of vulnerabilities

Health and security

52702013

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI

markedly increase their vulnerability rating.

Economic wellbeing

52701007

ward to do so. Despite its low population, risk category for malnutrition, and the

Interconnectivity

52702016

which is classified as one ward, is the only the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest

Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category

a a

Mostly poor Mixed Mixed Marginal

a a

Pristine Mixed

8. Conclusion In response to climate change vulnerability

In terms of response, key vulnerabilities

The information provided offers

in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed

are likely to be a decrease in crop

generalisations about the risks people

at enhancing food security must consider

production potential locally, which will

in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in

that food security is determined by

affect subsistence agriculture, local market

the future, and the factors that need to

agricultural production as well as by

availability and household incomes from

be addressed to enhance peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capacity

food availability and food markets, food

food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,

to adapt. This report thus provides only

access, consistency of food supply,

including threats to indigenous forests and

a loose framework in developing

and food utilisation and safety factors.

conservation areas, will affect wild food

programming and in flagging issues or

availability and grazing and have negative

areas of particular concern. Successful

impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of

programming will depend on the additional,

interest may well arise between the need

ongoing input of those that live with

to conserve biodiversity in conservation

vulnerability, and experience the challenges

areas, and other needs such as crops,

of adaptation, together with input from other

grazing, or habitation.

stakeholders including government and

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are profoundly determined by underdevelopment. Umkhanyakude has a number of particular risks in this regard, including low levels of education and literacy, high levels of unemployment and poverty, and poor

non-government practitioners working in

infrastructure and basic services (more

There is a strong two-way relationship

than 75% of households have no basic

between human health and food insecurity,

sanitation or access to a potable water

and climate change is likely to have a

From the above it is clear that multiple

supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,

particular bearing on human health. There

factors shape peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s food security, and

and numerous orphaned children deepen

is a likelihood of less water being available

that the impact of climate change on food

the districtâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s development challenges.

for drinking and sanitation, and thus a

security is highly complex and extends

greater risk of water-borne disease. Water

beyond direct environmental impacts.

Vulnerability to climate change is considered a function of exposure, response and adaptation. In terms of exposure to future climate-related risks, a number of vulnerabilities in Umkhanyakude stand out. Enormous

communities in the district .

is also necessary for food preparation and protecting against disease. Further, the climate is likely to become more suitable for malaria, with Umkhanyakude being the most affected district of South Africa.

gaps and uncertainties in the understanding

Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is

of climate change and the nature of its

determined by multiple factors. The two

impacts on key areas such as human

are closely related, and for this reason

health, agriculture, tourism and

when thinking about responses to climate

ecosystems still exist.

change, assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity frequently consider the same or similar factors. Right: School children help to plant and water vegetables at school in KwaZulu-Natal province. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

8. Conclusion In response to climate change vulnerability

In terms of response, key vulnerabilities

The information provided offers

in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed

are likely to be a decrease in crop

generalisations about the risks people

at enhancing food security must consider

production potential locally, which will

in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in

that food security is determined by

affect subsistence agriculture, local market

the future, and the factors that need to

agricultural production as well as by

availability and household incomes from

be addressed to enhance peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capacity

food availability and food markets, food

food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,

to adapt. This report thus provides only

access, consistency of food supply,

including threats to indigenous forests and

a loose framework in developing

and food utilisation and safety factors.

conservation areas, will affect wild food

programming and in flagging issues or

availability and grazing and have negative

areas of particular concern. Successful

impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of

programming will depend on the additional,

interest may well arise between the need

ongoing input of those that live with

to conserve biodiversity in conservation

vulnerability, and experience the challenges

areas, and other needs such as crops,

of adaptation, together with input from other

grazing, or habitation.

stakeholders including government and

non-government practitioners working in

infrastructure and basic services (more

There is a strong two-way relationship

than 75% of households have no basic

between human health and food insecurity,

sanitation or access to a potable water

and climate change is likely to have a

From the above it is clear that multiple

supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,

particular bearing on human health. There

factors shape peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s food security, and

and numerous orphaned children deepen

is a likelihood of less water being available

that the impact of climate change on food

the districtâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s development challenges.

for drinking and sanitation, and thus a

security is highly complex and extends

greater risk of water-borne disease. Water

beyond direct environmental impacts.

communities in the district .

gaps and uncertainties in the understanding

Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is

of climate change and the nature of its

determined by multiple factors. The two

impacts on key areas such as human

are closely related, and for this reason

health, agriculture, tourism and

when thinking about responses to climate

ecosystems still exist.

9. Glossary 9. Glossary of terms Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change describes the adjustment people make

10. References Human capital: The capability of

to another by an arthropod (such

individuals residing in their knowledge,

as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,

health and skills.

sometimes with other animals serving as intermediary hosts.

to the things they do, the way they do

Hydrological cycle: The continuous

them, or to the organisational or physical

movement, as well as conservation,

Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which

elements of their environment in response

of water throughout the earth’s system,

a system (or community) reacts adversely

to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.

including rainfall, run-off, condensation,

to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability

evaporation from water surfaces, plant

denotes the likelihood of exposure and

transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.

sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having

Biodiversity: Describes the “natural variety” of an environment, including the habitat variety, number of species,

Institutions: Organisations founded

interactions between species, and

formally or informally for a particular body

genetic variation among individuals

of work, as well as social rules, customs,

within a species.

precedents or constant practices that

Climate change: In the context of this

characterise society.

report, this refers to changes in variability

Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances

and/or changes in the average state of

in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary

climatic conditions over time, caused by

content, which may lead to abnormalities

human activities.

and disease.

Climate variability: In the context of this

Social capital: Features of social

report, this refers to “natural” changes in

organisation, such as networks,

climate conditions over time, as opposed

norms and trust; the sum of resources,

to those that are caused by human

actual and virtual, that accrue to an

activities. This variability may occur from

individual or a group by virtue of possessing

year to year or in cycles over decades.

a durable network; and/or less

Food security: The physical or economic access of all people at all times to sufficient,

institutionalised relationships of mutual acquaintance and recognition.

safe and nutritious food to meet their

Vector-borne disease: A disease is one

dietary needs and food preferences for

in which the pathogenic micro-organism

an active and healthy life.

is transmitted from one infected individual

an external component (the shocks or stresses to which a household or community are subjected), and an internal component (the negative response of a system or inadequate capacity to cope). Wasting: Children whose weight for height is significantly below the norm.

10. References Adger, W. N. & Vincent, K. (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399–410. AIACC (2004) Messages from Dakar: Report of the Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Africa and the Indian Islands, Senegal, 2004. Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Project (AIACC), funded by the Global Environmental Facility. Alberini, A., Chiabai, A. & Muehlenbachs, L. (2006) Using expert judgment to assess adaptive capacity to climate change: Evidence from a conjoint choice survey. Global Environmental Change, 16, 123–144. Andrews, G., Skinner, D. & Zuma, K. (2006) Epidemiology of health and vulnerability among children orphaned and made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS Care, 18, 269–276. AU (2005) Status of Food Security and Prospects for Agricultural Development in Africa. AU Ministerial Conference of Ministers of Agriculture January 31– February 1, 2006. Bamako, Mali, African Union. Boardley, S. & Schulze, R. E. (2005) Chapter Twenty-Two: Why adopt a vulnerability approach? In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Pretoria, Water Research Commission. Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007) Africa. In Parry,

M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. Brooks, N., Adger, W. N. & Kelly, P. M. (2005) The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 15, 151–163. Comrie, A. (2007) Climate Change and Human Health. Geography Compass, 1/3 2007, 325–339. Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004a) Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part II. The impact of nonclimatic factors. Durban, Malaria Research Programme, Medical Research Council. Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Nawn, J. B., Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004b) Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The impact of climatic factors. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 9, 1247–1257. Craig, M. H. & Sharp, B. L. (2000) Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. Health Section. Part One: Malaria. The South African Country Studies Report. National Malaria Research Programme, Medical Research Council. DEAT (2006) South Africa Environment Outlook: A report on the state of the

environment, Pretoria, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. DoA (2006) Food Insecurity in Umkhanyakude: Poster. Data sources: Department of Agriculture; ARC-ISCW; Statistics South Africa – GHS (2005); 2001 Census; National Food Consumption Survey (2000). Human Sciences Research Council. Eeley, H. A. C., Lawes, M. J. & Piper, S. E. (1999) The influence of climate change on the distribution of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Journal of Biogeography, 26, 595–617. FAO (2007) Assessment of the World Food Security Situation. Committee on World Food Security Thirty-third Session, 7 – 10 May 2007. Rome, Committee on World Food Security. Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F., Price, J. T., Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dube, O. P., Tarazona, J. & Velichko, A. A. (2007) Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. Fischer, F., Shah, M. & van Velthuizen, H. (2002) Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability. A special report, prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis under United Nations Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113 on “Climate Change and Agricultural 27

9. Glossary 9. Glossary of terms Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change describes the adjustment people make

10. References Human capital: The capability of

to another by an arthropod (such

individuals residing in their knowledge,

as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,

health and skills.

sometimes with other animals serving as intermediary hosts.

to the things they do, the way they do

Hydrological cycle: The continuous

them, or to the organisational or physical

movement, as well as conservation,

Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which

elements of their environment in response

of water throughout the earth’s system,

a system (or community) reacts adversely

to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.

including rainfall, run-off, condensation,

to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability

evaporation from water surfaces, plant

denotes the likelihood of exposure and

transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.

sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having

Biodiversity: Describes the “natural variety” of an environment, including the habitat variety, number of species,

Institutions: Organisations founded

interactions between species, and

formally or informally for a particular body

genetic variation among individuals

of work, as well as social rules, customs,

within a species.

precedents or constant practices that

Climate change: In the context of this

characterise society.

report, this refers to changes in variability

Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances

and/or changes in the average state of

in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary

climatic conditions over time, caused by

content, which may lead to abnormalities

human activities.

and disease.

Climate variability: In the context of this

Social capital: Features of social

report, this refers to “natural” changes in

organisation, such as networks,

climate conditions over time, as opposed

norms and trust; the sum of resources,

to those that are caused by human

actual and virtual, that accrue to an

activities. This variability may occur from

individual or a group by virtue of possessing

year to year or in cycles over decades.

a durable network; and/or less

Food security: The physical or economic access of all people at all times to sufficient,

institutionalised relationships of mutual acquaintance and recognition.

safe and nutritious food to meet their

Vector-borne disease: A disease is one

dietary needs and food preferences for

in which the pathogenic micro-organism

an active and healthy life.

is transmitted from one infected individual

10. References Vulnerability” as a contribution to the World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg 2002. Freeman, M. & Nkomo, N. (2006) Guardianship of orphans and vulnerable children. A survey of current and prospective South African caregivers. AIDS Care, 18, 302–310. Fussel, H. M. (2005) Vulnerability in Climate Change Research: A Comprehensive Conceptual Framework. University of California International and Area Studies. Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri, U. E. & Patz, J. A. (2000) Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis. Bulletin of the World Health Organisation, 78, 1136-1148. Gommes, R., du Guerny, J., Glantz, M. H. & Hsu, L. N. (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS: A hotspots analysis for Early Warning Rapid Response Systems. UNDP, FAO and NCAR. Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I. & Brklacich, M. (2005) Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360, 2139-2148. IDT (2007) Poverty Eradication: 04 Umkhanyakude DC27. http://www.idt.org.za/. Independent Development Trust. Jarvis, A., Fisher, M., P., J., Cook, S. & Guarino, L. (2006) Agriculture, Risk and Climate Change. http://www.cgiar.org/ pdf/2006_Jarvis%20and%20others-Ag_ Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf, Consultative Group in International Agricultural Research. 28

Karumbidza, J. B. (2007) uMkhanyakude: Livelihood Profile of uMkhanyakude and Situational Analysis of DSD Services in the node. Second Draft. South African Department of Social Development. Kleinschmidt, I., Sharp, B. L., Clarke, G. P. Y., Curtis, B. & Fraser, C. (2001) Use of Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology, 153, 1213–1221. Korenromp, E. L., Williams, B. G., De Vlas, S. J., Gouws, E., Gilks, C. F., Ghys, P. D. & Nahlen, B. L. (2005) Malaria attributable to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 11, 1410–1419. Mano, R., Isaacson, B. & Dardel, P. (2003) Identifying Policy Determinants of Food Security Response and Recovery in the SADC Region: The Case of the 2002 Food Emergency. Keynote paper prepared for the FANRPAN Regional Dialogue on Agricultural Recovery, Food Security and Trade Policies in Southern Africa, Gaborone, Botswana, 26–27 March 2003. Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2002) The Nature, Extent and Causes of Land Degradation in South Africa; legacy of the past, lessons for the future? Area, 33, 429–437. Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2003) Land degradation and climate change in South Africa. The Geographical Journal, 169, 168–177.

Mukheibir, P. & Sparks, D. (2003) Water resource management and climate change in South Africa: Visions, driving factors and sustainable development indicators: Report for Phase I of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change project. Energy and Development Research Centre, University of Cape Town. Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R., Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F., Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaarda, L. & West, J. (2004) Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change, 14, 303-313. Olwoch, J. M. (2005) Climate change and tick-host relationships in Africa. Faculty of Natural & Agricultural Sciences. Pretoria, University of Pretoria. Piot, P. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2002) 2001-2002 IFPRI Annual Report Essay AIDS: The New Challenge to Food Security. Washington DC, International Food Policy Research Institute.

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Reid, P., Massey, R. & Vogel, C. (2005) Chapter Twenty-Five: Climate and Development:

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Right: 95% of the population in UMkhanyakude district are rural dwellers and many households rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet food requirements. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS. Back cover: Workers heading home at the end of the day. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

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Contact details ZIMBABWE LIMPOPO BOTSWANA

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