Practical Punting September 2011

practicalpunting.com.au

September 2011 – $7.70 RRP Aust. $7.70 inc. GST – NZ $8.50 inc. GST

A Gift, A Bonus & More

5

98 SINCE 1

Inside

systems 10forgreat small punters

Massivteion Subscripus Bon

Yours

FREE SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS

The Cups Kav power

AUSTRALIA’S FAVOURITE RACING MAGAZINE

Print Post Approved PP232004/00005–ISSN 1328-4517

BIG BI G

THE

BREAK

PRACTICAL PUNTING – SINCE 1985

Never-before-used form factor revealed – the inside story on an “unmistakable signal” that is flashing “127% profit”...

You see, every decade or so, a new form factor appears on the racing scene that goes up like a moon shot ...

We were first alerted to this new form factor six months ago.

I’m sorry to have kept you waiting. But I think you’ll agree, after seeing what we will reveal to you, it was worth it.

My team and I have been holed up conducting our final due diligence on this new winning approach, which I’m about to share with you...

We’ve pored over both the winning method itself and its selections, verified everything the two top form analysts, who cracked this form approach wide open, told us about their strategies, opportunities and its strengths – and prepared dozens of follow-up questions we needed to ask.

Now with our due diligence complete, I can’t wait to share the results.

But there is one twist ... which works in your favour.

Rather than present you with the one “take-it-or-leave-it” opportunity, we have put together an irresistible offer. We are placing it in an unbeatable package – alongside 12 months of Practical Punting Monthly, which you get absolutely FREE. Together they are valued at over $450.

And while cost shouldn’t really be an issue given what you are about to discover, I understand that every dollar counts right now. So how about this...

We are giving you a guaranteed saving of over $325.

For less than just $2.50 a week, a 12 month membership has been set at just $129.

A Practical Punting package has not been at such a good price for members since 2001, over 10 years ago.

985

SINCE 1

AUSTRALIA’S FAVOURITE RACING MAGAZINE practicalpunting.com.au

Published shed by by: Equestrian Publishing Pty Ltd ABN 18 106 237 1199 – 9/30-32 Barcoo Street, Roseville, NSW 2069 – email: sales@equest.com.au

Since 1985 Publisher: Editor: Art Designer: Production Manager: Contributing Photographer:

Hugh Stanley Brian Blackwell William De Vries Joanne Smith Steve Hart

Senior Contributing Writers Don Matthews Wayne Wilson Julian Mould

Contributors/Columnists Jon Hudson Richard Hartley Jnr William McBride Costa Rolfe PB King Philip Roy Martin Dowling Todd Burmester Ross Cooper David Patterson

Rick Roberts Brian Hipper Clive Allcock Michael Kemp Mal James Kevin Casey Neil Franklyn Joseph Cian Kevin Knight

practicalpunting.com.au sales@equest.com.au Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited except by written permission of the publisher. Whilst past results can indicate a strong and reliable method, turf speculation cannot be guaranteed for future performance. The company therefore cannot provide any guarantees or warranties against fulfilment of future profits.

TO SUBSCRIBE Phone (02) 9417 6551 Fax (02) 9417 6621 sales@equest.com.au To: Equestrian Publishing Pty Ltd, PO Box 614, Roseville, NSW 2069

practicalpunting.com.au One Year $104.40 (12 issues inc. P&P & GST) Overseas Airmail $4 per issue extra. Distributed in Australia by Network Services. Printed by Offset Alpine Printing Pty Ltd

FRONT COVER PIC. Who’ll be the spring carnival superstar this year? Peter Moody’s 4yo Zabeel mare Lights Of Heaven, our front cover horse (shown winning at Moonee Valley in March) is a key contender. (See Pages 4-6 for our latest Cups coverage.) Photo: STEVE HART.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

CONTENTS: SEPTEMBER 2011 Vol. 27, No. 249 MAJOR FEATURES

4 6 7 8 11 12 14 16 18 20 37

Golden Spring Looms For Scarlett Lady • Neil Franklyn The Kav Factor • Brian Blackwell Big Profits From The BIG Break • Brian Blackwell Distance Change Destroyers! • Todd Burmester 10 Super Mini-Systems • The Optimist Surprise Packets For The Spring • Costa Rolfe It’s Time For The Baby Boomers • The Optimist Future’s Bright For Lights Of Heaven • Julian Mould Plan Your Bets With ‘System Skill’ • William ‘Bad Bill’ McBridee Don’t Knock Those Second-Up Runners • Martin Dowling Back 2 Contenders In Small Field Races • Richard Hartley Jnrr

ARTICLES – LOCAL SCENE 10 13 15 19 22 24 25 25 26/27 28 29-31 32/33

Bet Like Crazy Perth Turf Hong Kong Whispers UK Racing Melbourne Monitor The Julian Mould File Profit Page Tassie Tips Educating The Punter Clive Of PPM The Optimist’s Assessments Sydney Scene

34/35 36 39 40 40 42 43 44 45 46/47 48 49 50

Plan Of The Month Brisbane Banter Adelaide Angle Stopwatch Specials Horses To Follow Letters To The Editor Costa’s Lot Weekly Race Notes Harness Racing NZ Calling MasterVault PPM Classics Final Word & Late Mail Alphabetical List Of Horses

PROFIT WATCH 2010/2011 RACING YEAR PPM did it again! What a fantastic end to the racing year, with a profit of $1,574.00 from $20 bets. Stopwatch Specials took the laurels this year, with commendable efforts from Profit Page and Late Mail. Bet to win if less than 4/1, otherwise each way.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– SELECT. WINS PLACES OUTLAY PROFIT LOSS BAL. (inc. wins)

STOPWATCH SPECIALS 108 18 41 166 44.80 44.80 HORSES TO FOLLOW 107 14 39 156 8.95 8.95 PROFIT PAGE 128 29 63 185 21.40 21.40 BRISBANE BANTER 48 9 19 81 10.80 -10.80 ADELAIDE ANGLE 28 6 9 41 1.50 -1.50 MELBOURNE MONITOR 55 13 25 82 7.05 7.05 SYDNEY SCENE 19 1 5 31 9.20 - 9.20 LATE MAIL/FINAL WORD 51 9 12 80 18.00 18.00 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– TOTALS 544 99 213 672 100.20 21.5 78.70 ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

•Win Strike = 18.20% •Place Strike = 39.15% •Profit % = 11.71% •Profit on $20 bet = $1574

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

3

ueensland Oaks winner Scarlett Lady will headline arguably the strongest contingent of Kiwi-trained runners in recent memory in Melbourne this spring. The daughter of Savabeel and On Call looked magnificent when capturing the Oaks and I’m already salivating over her return to the racetrack.

Her connections have a program mapped out for her which includes five Group I races with the Melbourne Cup as the pinnacle. The Underwood Stakes, Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup are also on that exciting agenda. The Cox Plate is an unlikely target although it’s expected she’ll be among early nominations.

Co-trainer Graeme Rogerson has stated that Scarlett Lady could be the best horse he has ever trained. A big statement indeed and time will tell as to whether she lives up to such high praise. But there’s no doubt she has talent as her blistering Oaks’ victory proved to be her sixth win in succession – four at home and two in Brisbane.

The 4-year-old is currently spelling.

She was to have a serious gallop in mid-August prior to competing in the 1400m Challenge Stakes at Hastings – the first leg of the Triple Crown. Jimmy Choux and Wall Street are likely rivals in that event and I can’t wait for that clash to eventuate.

Other Rogerson-trained runners likely to head across the ditch include Katie Lee, Dowager Queen and the sprinter Gaston. Katie was a leading 3-year-old, but didn’t really come up as a 4-year-old which can often happen to younger horses.

4 – SEPTEMBER 2011

However, she experienced a limited number of starts last season and was handicapped on more than one occasion by a rain-affected surface. I expect to see her return to top form this campaign and her connections will target the three main Hastings events initially.

Dowager Queen raced well as a 2-year-old in New Zealand and

Follow Neil’s NZ tips Pages 46/47 grabbed two fourth-places at Eagle Farm, so she already has overseas experience. By the same sire as Scarlett Lady, this filly will probably kick-off her spring preparation at Wanganui on September 3, with the Group 1 Thousand Guineas in Melbourne an attractive target on her way to the Cox Plate.

Cox Plate you may well ask? Yes, you heard me right. If successful she’ll join 1976 victor Surround as the only other 3-year-old filly to win the prestigious race. She appears to handle varying track conditions – at least she did in her freshman season – so bear that in mind if she strikes form.

Showy grey gelding Gaston caught my attention when stringing together four sprint races on the trot last

summer and autumn. This bloke also possesses the ability to handle a range of track conditions and destroyed four hapless opponents by 13 lengths in his fourth and most recent win. Regular pilot James McDonald has developed a fine affinity with the son of Charge Forward and they could well combine in Australia soon. Gaston will also head to Hawke’s Bay for early season racing.

Jimmy Choux needs no introduction – at least I hope not!

He left me speechless last season when capturing five Group events in succession – three at Group 1 level including the NZ Derby – culminating in the Rosehill Guineas in Sydney. His sheer ability and will to win was commendable and the best 3-year-old I’ve sighted on this side of the ditch for many a year. Granted it wasn’t a vintage crop of his age-group peers, but you would be a harsh critic indeed if you didn’t wax lyrical about what he and regular hoop Jonathan Riddell achieved.

Naturally, it gets a whole lot tougher for all involved this season.

The Thorn Park colt will commence his preparation at his local Hastings track and then be set for the Cox Plate. His conditioner John Bary believes he isn’t a true stayer – a belief enforced by his ordinary run in the AJC Derby – so he’ll bypass races beyond middle-distance journeys. He may even be considered for a Hong Kong sojourn if his form warrants it.

Jimmy galloped between races at Hastings in July and rider Jonathan Riddell told John Jenkins of Hawke’s Bay Today (27 July 2011): “He was VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

just cruising and felt really good. He certainly feels stronger now.”

He won seven races from 10 starts last season and will no doubt be bestowed with the New Zealand ‘3-year-old Horse of the Year’ title and be considered also for horse of the year. Along with Scarlett Lady and Lion Tamer, he’s part of a talented trio for spring honors.

And it’s now a good time to introduce Lion Tamer into the overall picture. Cambridge father-and-son training partnership Murray & Bjorn Baker are putting together a tidy record with their charges across the Tasman and there’s no doubt this entire will lead their spring attack. The son of Storming Home is well fancied in early Melbourne Cup betting due no doubt to his success in the Group 1 VRC Derby last season – albeit achieved on a wet surface.

Murray Baker told Aiden Rodley of the Waikato Times (17 June 11) that his 4-year-old probably would head straight to Melbourne to contest WFA affairs leading into an assault on the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double.

Baker said: “He’s pace working, getting fit and he’s as good as gold.”

Lion Tamer has the ability to handle tracks good through heavy, so add this important statistic to your black book notes for future reference. I’m sure we’ll all learn a lot more about this animal before the end of this calendar year. If successful in the big 3200m race he would become the third horse only to win the Victoria Derby/Melbourne Cup double in back-to-back years. The two horses to achieve this feat were Efficient and that useful type Phar Lap! Stablemate Harris Tweed is also progressing well and looking to improve on his second and fifth places in the respective big cups in 2010. I’m not so sure he’ll improve on those efforts, but co-trainer Murray Baker is very pleased with his current state of mind and fitness, so who VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

Jimmy Choux

am I to wonder aloud? He’s certainly a reasonable back-up to the Tamer at any rate being a decent stayer with worthwhile form in big events.

Montjeu gelding Wall Street is a talented individual who won the second and third legs of the 2010 Hastings Triple Crown, prior to winning the Group 1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington in November. He didn’t perform too well in Sydney during autumn time and is now a 7-year-old, so we’ll have to wait and see what eventuates.

Trainer Jeff Lynds is very happy with his current condition and

Graeme Rogerson

believes he’s on track to defend his Hastings’ trophies. He’s being prepared for another assault on the Cox Plate – looking to improve on his seventh place last October.

Stablemate Booming is thriving and could be seen in Melbourne during Cup time. The Don Eduardo 7-yearold gelding has been lightly-raced – less than 25 starts at this point – so the stayer still should have something to prove as he’s yet to reach his full potential.

He added two Group 1 events to his arsenal last preparation over 1600m and 2000m – while 2010 saw him running second to Zavite in the 3200m Auckland Cup. So he’s nothing if not versatile.

Unfortunately, he had to be scratched on the morning of the 2011 Sydney Cup following a third place lead-up at Randwick behind subsequent Metropolitan victor Herculian Prince. He’s proven to be a late maturing customer and it’ll be interesting to see if he copes with the rigors of his main target – the big race on the first Tuesday in November.

You’ll no doubt be well aware of the Stephen McKee-prepared (King) Mufhasa who has visited Australian shores on a few occasions. The son of Pentire rounds up a trifecta of aged nags I’ve noted – Wall Street and Booming being the other two – so it’s your decision if you want to consider investing hard earned upon their respective noses. I generally consider it somewhat of a risk to punt on aged types – especially Kiwi ones in the tough environment that is Melbourne during springtime.

There’s a handful of mares that’s expected to contest races for their own sex in Victoria in the near future; culminating in the Myers Classic for at least one of them – Keep The Peace. Other females expected to leave our shores include Barinka – a September raid on the Let’s Elope Stakes and Stocks Stakes – and Dasoudi who may

• Continued Page 23 SEPTEMBER 2011 –

5

CAULFIELD CUP

an the import December Draw become Mark Kavanagh’s power horse for the spring Cups?

It’s a key question as pre-Cups speculations mounts. The latest betting market shows that bookies are taking few risks with December Draw.

He’s at 14/1 for the Caulfield Cup and 20/1 for the Melbourne Cup. As I write this, the Caulfield Cup market is headed by Shamrocker at 10/1 ($11.00), and the Melbourne Cup by Maluckyday and Scarlett Lady at 12/1 ($13.00).

Kavanagh, of course, has already won the Melbourne Cup with Shocking. He has the taste of what it means. But can December Draw make it Cup No 2?

I think he’s worth serious consideration. The 6yo has had two starts in Australia, winning first-up on May 7 over 1600m at Flemington.

He didn’t beat much and he won only by a nose but it was a sound performance.

Two weeks later, again at Flemington, he romped home by five lengths over Gold In Dubai at 2000m.

These wins point up the fact that he’s a ready-made Flemington horse.

In England, his three wins were on all-weather tracks at Wolverhampton Lingfield (2) over 1800m, 2000m and 1600m. He was restricted to races up to 2000m.

I don’t think he will have any problems going over further than 2000m.

Now, let’s just have a review of the ‘earlybird’ tips that myself and The

Don’t miss our Caulfield Cup special issue next month Optimist handed out in the August issue.

MY TOP 6 (IN ORDER)

• December Draw • Hiruno D’Amour • Dunaden • Scarlett Lady • Shamrocker • Linton THE OPTIMIST’S 6 (IN ORDER)

• Shootoff • Scarlett Lady • Shez Sinsational • Shamrocker • Brazilian Pulse • Shoot Out I see no reason at this stage to make any changes. Don’t miss the big Caulfield Cup issue next month in PPM. We’ll have final tips from myself, The Optimist, Todd Burmester, Costa Rolfe and Martin Dowling.

Shamrocker

13.00

Lights Of Heaven

13.00

Scarlett Lady

13.00

December Draw

15.00

Absolutely

17.00

Lion Tamer

17.00

Cedarberg

21.00

Maluckyday

21.00

My Kingdom Of Fife

21.00

Brazilian Pulse

26.00

Descarado

26.00

Glass Harmonium

26.00

Linton

26.00

Mighty High

26.00

Rekindled Interest

26.00

Shootoff

26.00

Americain (FR)

34.00

Budai

34.00

Heidilicious

34.00

Kings Rose

34.00

Mainghar

34.00

Moudre

34.00

Playing God

34.00

Precedence

34.00

Southern Speed

34.00

MELBOURNE CUP Maluckyday

13.00

Scarlett Lady

13.00

Americain

15.00

Shamrocker

15.00

Lion Tamer

17.00

December Draw

21.00

Lights Of Heaven

21.00

Linton

21.00

Absolutely

26.00

Descarado

26.00

Glass Harmonium

26.00

My Kingdom Of Fife

26.00

Opinion Poll (UAE)

26.00

Precendence

26.00 P.P.M.

6 – SEPTEMBER 2011

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

ne of the underlying aspects of any punter’s personal betting journey is to find a factor that streamlines the entire selection process.

Discover a breakthrough factor – one that really smashes through the whole area of horseracing form – and you are well on the way to beating the game.

Our new product, The Big Break, has, I believe, found racing’s ‘lost chord’ – the factor in the formguide, freely available, that hands you the chance to make your racing pay.

My colleagues Alan Jacobs and Jon Hudson spoke to me some months ago about their research. Both were excited about having tracked down a form factor that was enabling them to achieve level stakes profits way above 100 per cent.

Not only that, but a strike rate hovering close to the 37 per cent mark. Extraordinary stuff.

Now I can’t reveal here the exact details of what they have discovered.

But you can have full access via our Big Break offer.

Let me just say that this form factor (so easily identified that you’ll be amazed) identifies horses that have produced certain raceday performances and which are more than likely to repeat such

performances in the future.

What The Big Break does is take you immediately to the very heart of what the formguide is all about – in fact, what racing itself is about.

Once you know what this form factor is you are armed with racing’s equivalent of a rocket launcher! You can aim high, and you can shoot with stunning accuracy.

To let you secure The Big Break

This gives you access to the full rules of The Big Break, plus a free 12 month subscription to PPM, plus other superb bonuses (see the Centre Pages for all the details).

I’ve closely examined The Big Break system. It really is explosive. No matter how small your bets might be – this approach will give your betting that added ‘extra oomph’ that means profit. Money in your pocket.

we’ve come up with an extraordinary bonus offer.

We are placing it in an unbeatable package – alongside a subscription to 12 months of Practical Punting Monthly magazine, yours absolutely free with the Big Break.

Together they form a $450 package.

But our package gives you a saving of $325 on this figure!

We’ve set the year’s membership at just $129. This is the best value punting package we’ve put together for a decade.

Latest stats show a 127 per cent profit from January 2010 – 117 winners from 317 selections.

This is powerful stuff. And for just $2.50 a week our membership package is yours – remember you get not only The Big Break approach (all the rules clearly set out) but 12 months of PPM as well.

The extra bonuses – a free telephone selection support service for The Big Break and free access to the PPM telephone service.

✔ ✔ FREE

Valued at $200

BIG The

BRE

AK

127% Profit

Big Break Phone Selection Service

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

P.P.M.

✔ FREE Guaranteed ✔savings over $325 85

SINCE 19

Yearly Subscription to PPM

SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

7

ll horses have an optimum distance range at which their performance reaches its peak, and we’ve all seen a horse that can look like a champion up to, say 1600m, but when stretched beyond that, stops as if shot.

A recent example is More Joyous.

She was killing them in races up to a mile but when she stepped up to the Cox Plate over 2040m, she just couldn’t go with them over the last part of the race. It was interesting, however, that due to the impressive nature of her shorter distance wins a lot of punters were prepared to give her a decent chance of beating So You Think, even though he was the horse with the proven record over the Cox Plate distance (he was the defending champion). More Joyous was rising 440m to this race from her previous longest winning distance. This example is worth remembering as you read through this article.

Distances that horses race over are much talked about when analysing the form. We’ll often hear the “experts” talking about whether a horse will run out a strong 1200m etc.

Unless the runs are on the board the answer as to whether the horse will find its peak form at the distance is very much a guess.

Whether a horse increases or decreases in distance is the focal point of this piece, with particular emphasis on horses decreasing in distance. It’s often talked about as a negative to have a horse coming back in distance. I’m not 100 per cent certain why that is, but I would presume it’s to do with a theory that once the horse has enough condition or fitness to run a certain distance it

8 – SEPTEMBER 2011

may find the pace of shorter races more difficult. I must say I’m not convinced this theory holds up when explored a little further.

I’d like a dollar for every system I’ve read which will suggest that the horse must not be coming back in distance, or must not be coming back in distance more than 200m. Does this truly hold any credence? Or are we missing out on winners by putting a line through those racing over less

R Read Todd B in i every PPM distance today than last start? I’ll say up front that coming back in distance is actually a positive to a horse and its chances in today’s race – but allow me to elaborate a little further and make a case for what I’m saying.

When looking at horses coming back in distance it is worth being very cautious of those coming back huge amounts, not that these are all that common. However, this is not exclusive to horses decreasing in distance; it also applies to horses stepping up large amounts in distance. As I have said before, horses are not machines.

To explore further my thoughts on the subject I’ve sourced some data.

The first set of numbers virtually say enough to dispel the myth that coming back in distance is a bad thing. It’s a very broad data test, showing all horses that have started with either an increase or decrease

in distance over the last 10 years (the sample is in excess of a million runners). The data breaks the horses into groups based on the current race distance of up to 1600m and races beyond 1600m, and as to whether the group was coming back or going up in distance from their previous start.

The return on investment represents the return percentage of total turnover if every horse in the group was invested on at level stakes.

Today’s Race Distance

Win Percentage

Return On Investment

Up to and including 1600m (horses back in distance from last start)

9.3%

65%

Above 1600m (horses back in distance from last start)

9.6%

67%

Up to and including 1600m (horses up in distance from last start)

9%

60%

Above 1600m (horses up in distance from last start)

9.6%

68%

The numbers in terms of win percentage are remarkably similar aren’t they? Argument over? Stepping up in distance is not a negative form factor. Ok perhaps it isn’t quite as simple as that, so let’s explore things a little further. Before moving on though, there are a couple of interesting observations from the data so far.

You’ll notice that the group with the lowest strike rate, is in fact the group racing in events up to 1600m and that are stepping up in distance.

This group also significantly returns less on the overall investment. The VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

reason this is significant is that a same overall group across the last 10 horse ‘stepping up in distance’ is years but broken into key categories often a form factor that is overlooked of: Increase of no more than 200m, that can potentially be a big negative increase between 201 and 400m, (remember the More Joyous increase over 400m and the same for example?). decreases in distance.

We’ll often hear in the media or from the trainer or jockey that “he’ll Category Win Return on handle the extra 200m no worries at Percentage Investment all”. I seem to recall Gai Waterhouse Back <= 200m 10.1% 67% talking this way prior to the Cox Back 201m – 8.8% 66% Plate, but it’s my guess that following 400m the horse’s failure that we won’t see More Joyous race above 1600m again.

Back >400m 6.6% 60% Perhaps punters simply get Up <=200m 9.8% 64% awestruck by the horse’s great leadUp 201m – 8.6% 63% up form, and don’t account for the 400m fact that it may be racing out of its optimal distance range today. The Up >400m 7.9% 62% fact remains that until a horse has run a certain So what can we distance and draw from these performed well figures? At a at it, we should glance you might always consider think the numbers it may not handle are fairly similar. extra distance But in a way in its race. The that is the point. exception to Remembering this is if there what this is all is considerable about, and that’s value on offer whether coming to compensate back in distance for the possible is a negative form unknown factor or not. distance negative.

Looking at the According to stats for horses the statistics going up in this appears to distance, the particularly be two categories the case with of an increase of sprinter/milers. up to 200m and Gai Waterhouse Once the distance an increase of of the race is between 201m above 1600m, as shown in the table, and 400m from last start, produce a the group stepping up in distance 9.8 per cent and 8.6 per cent strike there, actually performs very well in rate respectively, with returns of 63 comparison to the other groups, with per cent and 62 per cent. Believe it or the equal highest win percentage and not, those figures are outperformed the highest return on investment. by both of the equivalent categories Make of that what you will, but I for runners moving back in distance. would presume that once a horse Those coming back in distance up has stamina on its side, it is easier to 200m show a win percentage of to extend that, than a horse whose 10.1 per cent and those coming back stamina is suspect (i.e. a sprinter). between 201m and 400m show a As I mentioned earlier, this data win percentage of 8.8 per cent. The so far is very broad. I think it’s respective returns also outperform worth narrowing it down a bit to the categories increasing in distance, have a look at various increments coming in at 67 per cent and 66 per of distance increases and decreases cent respectively compared to 64 per to see what impact that has on the cent and 63 per cent. win percentage of the group and the return on investment.

• Continued next page The following table shows the VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

WEB

onthe X DAILY NEWS

Your daily source of breaking racing news

X BLOG STABLE

Our panel of experts share their thoughts on the horse racing world.

X HOT GOSSIP

Brian Blackwell features the latest gossip from around the track.

X TALKIN’ FORM

TALKIN’ FORM Popular Saturday radio show takes a “regular guys” look at upcoming races.

X Q & A – ASK ME ANYTHING

Senior Practical Punting Correspondent the Optimist answers your questions.

X PRACTICAL PUNTING VIDEO GALLERY

Check out Punting Patto and his racing selections.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

9

STAR OF GISELLE Gee, I love this girl’s style. After only the 4 starts she’s proven herself to be a really honest and game little racehorse. Her first win was by 6 lengths on the all weather track at Geelong and next start she ran a corker of a race to finish a close 2nd behind the very good Biancon Rose. I tell you what, the way she raced up on the pace and then kicked clear in the straight got me excited. I wasn’t surprised to see her win next start at Flemington and I won’t be surprised to see her win a few more.

THAT’S THE ONE Did you see this little beauty’s win on debut at Sandown Betfair Park? Well if you did you would have him in your black book already! He settled close to last off a slow pace and absolutely exploded in the straight to win in crackerjack style.

Boy oh boy, I was impressed. ‘Huge win’ and ‘nice horse’ is what they were saying afterwards. He’s from the Alderson stable and Colin and Cindy are currently really in form. Follow this bloke, he’ll win a few more.

ANABAA’S LEGACY It’s hard to lead down the Flemington straight and win. This girl didn’t win, but she went mighty close 1st up after a 7 month spell. I was very impressed with the run. She went straight to the lead, put 3 lengths on them with a furlong to go and the only horse that could get past her was the very promising and race fit Star of Giselle. Last preparation she was competitive against the likes of Curtana, Annlea and Spurcific. Look, she has shown that she can match it with good horses and she looks to be back in crackerjack form.

MOTORISED This boy didn’t see any daylight at all at Flemington when he finished less than a length behind Pied A Terre but he sure ate up the ground when he did find some space and would have almost certainly won had he got out a bit sooner. He’s just had the 2 starts so will only improve with more racing and he’s a well bred type. His trainer is the great John Sadler. I’m sure it won’t be long before he breaks his maiden and wins a few more races after that.

10 – SEPTEMBER 2011

BEL SPRINTER Bel Esprit sure can produce a nice sprinter, can’t he? Bel Sprinter is his newest kid on the block, winning his first 3 starts. His most recent win at Flemington was even more impressive as he did it against his usual style of racing by leading all the way for a nice win. It really is a good sign when a horse wins with an all the way performance down the testing Flemington straight. He’s a class above his opposition at this time of year, it will be interesting to see how he fares against the better ones coming back soon. I think he can give them a good fight.

SET ME STRAIGHT This bloke showed quite a bit of natural ability in his first preparation, racing into 2nd place at all 3 of his starts. He’s recently come back and won his maiden in good style at Swan Hill and looks as though he’s matured but is obviously still learning what the racing game is all about. In the patient and nurturing hands of Jarrod McLean he’ll be given every chance to improve and reach his full potential. By the look of him there are many more wins in store for this fella.

MOAMA After 19 months off the scene this girl has returned to the track under the guidance of Peter Moody for a win and a 2nd from two starts. She showed some pretty good indications that she was an above average type by finishing less than a length behind Captain Sonador in Queensland back in October 2009. After such a long time away from the track there is bound to be lengths of improvement to come and if anyone is going to get the best out of her it’s Moody.

HISSING SID I’ve been looking forward to seeing this fellow back at the track. He is an old favourite of mine and typical of the tough, honest horses from the Wilde stable. I’ve noticed he’s been nominated for some races recently, so can’t be far away from making it back to the track. He’s got a big heart this fella and I have no doubt that he’ll be competitive in whatever races the Wildes set him for. If he stays injury free I know he’ll make it worth our while following him.

The categories of significant distance change of over 400m are also interesting. The first thing we can note here is that both increase and decrease in distance by 400m or more have the lowest strike rates return on investment. This would probably come as no surprise to anyone, and it links back to my theory that horses are not machines.

When you consider runners changing in distance by 400m or more, there’s probably a couple of obvious negatives that stand out here. The main one being that the horse has probably not had the ideal training campaign, and something may have gone wrong causing it to miss a run, and now it needs to step to a less suitable race to try and stay on track for its main goal of the campaign. The other might be that there are simply no other suitable races around at the right interval between runs, so the trainer simply needs to give the horse a run to keep it fit.

When you are looking at distance variations from one run to the next, consider how the horse performed at its most recent start. If the horse failed for example over 1600m two weeks ago after previously showing good form up to 1400m and now finds itself coming back to 1400m, it just stands to reason that you can probably forget the run over the longer distance and not be afraid of the drop back. Sometimes due to the failure last start, you can get additional value in today’s price, even though today’s race is back in a more suitable distance range.

In looking at the horses lead-up form you might find a horse that has been finishing its races off well and looking for more ground. In this case, a step back in distance might be a negative to be careful of. There can be a trap here, though, with horses increasing in distance to what seems

• Continued Page 23 VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

s promised in Educating The Punter, here we have the ten systemettes from my first book.

THE ORPHAN 1. Find a tipsters’ poll with at least five selectors from different sources.

2. Only consider the leading selector from each paper or specialist.

3. If only one selector picks a certain horse to win, it is the selection provided that no other selector of the ones you have chosen selects the horse for first or second.

SOME TOTAL 1. Add the last three starts to the market position (not the odds but the position, e.g. 1 = first).

2. The lowest total (sum total) is the selection, provided there is only one.

(Note the pun on the title of the system? It really is some plan.)

MOST RECENT LAST START WINNER 1. The selection is the most recent last start winner in the field.

2. If two or more horses last started on the same day and they qualify, the selection is the horse that has drawn nearer/nearest to the rails.

3. Never support a horse which is odds on: delete the race.

STICK WITH THE BEST 1. Tick the horses ridden by the top three riders in your state.

2. Tick any that are also carrying top weight after any claims and allowances are made.

3. If a final contender is 3 kg clear of the field, it becomes a selection.

THE BEST WITH MORE BETS 1. Tick any horse which is initially weighted to give its field at least 3 kg.

2. The horse becomes a selection if it is carrying its full allotted weight. (nb. In any handicap, you would expect that a horse in this situation is, to all intents and purposes, better than most other horses in the field; or at least it is on many occasions, and these occasions can sometimes lead to very nicely priced winners.)

s u n o B Gifts VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

WAITING FOR A SIGN 1. Take any horse that has done better each time at its last three runs (for example, form figures of 753, or 642; but not 522).

2. Delete any of these horses that won at their last start.

3. Tick any of these contenders that have won in the past over today’s distance.

4. If only one qualifying horse remains in the race, it is your selection.

THE GAY DECEIVER 1. Tick any horse that is having its third or fourth start after a spell of at least 55 days.

2. Delete any horse that did not run fourth or better at its first start after the spell.

3. Delete any horse that ran better than fourth at its second or third run back.

4. If only one or two remain as qualifiers, support them.

(You are looking for a horse at an attractive price that did all right firstup, then put in a couple of ordinary runs; on the basis that it was fresh and ran well, then possibly had a couple of “conditioners”.)

THE LOCAL CHAMP 1. Consider only big two-year-old races.

2. The selection is the first local horse that you meet as you go

down the field (a local horse is one that is trained and lives in the city where today’s race is being run).

THREE-YEAR-OLD SET WEIGHTS 1. Delete any horse not trained by one of the top three trainers (all states’ top three qualify).

2. Delete any horse not ridden by the particular trainer’s top rider.

3. Delete any horse with a form total of more than seven.

4. Also quinella and trifecta horses if more than one qualifier remains. You can also bet for a win if there is only one, or perhaps two, selections.

THE LUCKY LAST* 1. Tick any horse which has won over today’s course and distance.

2. Tick it again if it won or placed second at its last start, or at its second last start (or both).

3. Tick it once again if it is in the top three of the original weights.

4. If it has two ticks, back it each way.

5. If it has three ticks, double the bet for win only. (*”Lucky Last” in more ways than one, as this is a particularly effective plan for the last race – it’s remarkable how many times it’s been successful over the years).

Away you go then, enjoy yourself!

P.P.M.

YOURS FREE! • • FREE Picking Midweek Winners FREE Staking e-Book FREE Punting Calculator FREE Special Report FREE Subscription to our “Enjoy Winning” Newsletter

• • • Go to – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

11

or decade upon decade, unfamiliar New Zealand stayers have made a habit of surreptitiously slipping into this country to unleash a lethal spring assault.

Indeed, it’s as if some of these horses had been kitted out with false beards and doctored documents by Ian Fleming’s ‘M’ himself, such was the certainty with which punters discarded these often moderately-performed grinders, only to watch them traipse off with Melbourne Cup after Melbourne Cup. Names like Catalogue, Hi Jinx, Even Stevens (the punters at least twigged eventually with this staying star!) and Baghdad Note dot the Cup honour roll, all having no doubt padded out a few Kiwi wallets along the way. The ‘under the radar’ spring threat, however, can also come from within . . . And if these talented ‘moles’ can be identified early enough, they can pay handsome dividends.

In August 2009, a little known South Australian gelding resumed from a 27week spell with a barnstorming win in a Class 3 at Morphettville. That victory brought the son of Jeune’s record to a handy four wins from seven starts, but he had only been beating belowaverage horses under the guidance of an anonymous Strathalbyn trainer named Jake Stephens, and nobody except his own connections could have given him any possible chance of being competitive with the major spring players.

But Alcopop’s impact on the 2009 carnival was profound, and though he didn’t end up winning a Group 1 (that bungled Caulfield Cup acceptance must surely still smart today), he is yet

12 – SEPTEMBER 2011

another example of a horse emerging from complete obscurity to take it right up to better-credentialed gallopers; those Oaks and Derby winners no doubt located firmly at the top of opening pre-post Cups markets. He donkey-licked eventual Melbourne Cup winner Shocking in the Hebert Power, after all, after a dominant $15 win in the JRA Cup. Similarly, Maluckyday – though far better bred than Alcopop and under the tuteledge of a more high-profile trainer in John Hawkes – took last year’s spring by storm, having had a paltry three career starts to his name before he resumed with a win over 1400m at Hawkesbury on August 24. From there the son of Zabeel worked through his grades and the longer distances easily to culminate with a super-impressive Melbourne Cup second, beating all comers (including So You Think) bar the irrepressible Americain.

So who are the progressive horses to follow this year? Those that haven’t proven themselves at the highest level quite yet but might have the scope to do just that in the coming months? The picture will obviously become clearer as the spring lead-ups commence, but there are already a couple that I will be following this spring, soundness dependent of course.

Let’s be honest, not all of these horses are going to be winning Group 1’s this spring. In fact, none of them probably will – that is the very nature of speculative long-range predictions.

But identifying a horse’s talent early, and following that horse through a preparation can most certainly pay handsome dividends, and like in Alcopop’s case, if not in the big blue ribbands, then in the lesser lead-up

races. After all, we’re punters first and foremost, not owners, so it doesn’t really matter to us which race the horses win, or whether they achieve their ultimate campaign goal, or how much prizemoney they pick up along the way: as long as they win one, pay well and we’re on, it’s ‘job done’ as far as I’m concerned!

Sometimes if you pick the right horse to follow, it doesn’t matter if they appear to be disadvantaged by a shorter distance early in their preparation, or for example, by a bad gate later on.

These types are talented conveyances who can bob-up at excellent prices, and often catch the broader punting population by surprise: simply, good horses shouldn’t ever be underestimated, as good horses are more adept at overcoming adversity.

This ‘rule’ might appear a little facile when assessing the spring Group races, as most of the horses engaged have already proven themselves to be ‘good’ horses – hence their presence in a Group-class field – but the basic premise remains a sound one, and particularly so early in a galloper’s campaign when they might be perceived to be disadvantaged by the trip.

I am most interested in a pair of Mark Kavanagh-trained gallopers who I think could both make a name for themselves this spring as potential Cups horses. The British import December Draw created a big impression in his first two Australian runs and certainly fits the right profile for a prospective Caulfield Cup contender. Though the son Medecis only over tackled Listed company once in England for a third over 2000m in a small field of six, it has been proven recently that outstanding Group form at home is not necessarily required for success in Australia (see My Kingdom Of Fife, Stand To Gain etc). He looked very good winning first-up over 1600m at Flemington in early May, before putting in a mightily impressive runaway 5L win over Gold In Dubai at the same track over 1700m a fortnight later. That Gold In Dubai form doesn’t look horrible either, given that horse’s highly competitive Queensland campaign. December Draw looks the ‘real deal’ to me and could definitely be worth a wager in his first couple of fresh runs – as well as in the Cups – given his quite useful first-up and second-up form (4-1-0-2 and 4-2-0-0 respectively).

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

The other Kav-trained horse that should be worth following is the fouryear-old Street Cry mare Midnight Martini, who strung in three on the trot during the Melbourne winter and certainly looks a nice progressive type who can take the step to Group company. It will be interesting to see which way Kav decides to go with her, but he obviously knows the Street Cry breed well, and should place her to advantage. Her win at Sandown over 1300m was particularly impressive before she went on to record victories at the longer distances, so I wouldn’t be scared to back this mare early in her campaign either.

Another horse I’ve got a bit of time for is Pat Carey’s Ulundi. There is something suspiciously ‘Cedarberg’ about Ulundi, and I think he might be a real surprise packet in some second-tier spring races this year should he bob up there. They are both trained by Carey, both by Helenus, and both only performed moderately in the three-year-old staying races – Cedarberg running 7th in the AJC Derby, Ulundi 10th in the Victorian equivalent. Cedarberg showed immense improvement in the autumn of his four-year-old year to win the G1 BMW however – after a cracking run in the G2 Herbert Power in the spring – and I think Ulundi might also have the scope to be competitive at similar grade should he reappear after his recent freshen.

He’s already a listed winner, ran well in the Group 1 Australian Guineas and is trained by record-breaking leading trainer Peter Moody, but I still think Éclair Surprise qualifies as a bit of a dark horse. This son of Blackfriars has only had the five career starts but continues to find the line strongly, and I think we could see a very serious racehorse when extended beyond 1800m for the first time. He looks absolutely top-shelf to my eye and though I do have a slight nagging doubt about Moody as a conditioner of stayers, I feel this bloke could be the star stayer his trainer has been waiting for.

And how about one completely from left-field? I’ll throw in Epingle trained

by Mick Kent, a highly-respected trainer of stayers. A four-year-old with just four career starts to her name, I was quite taken by her win in a Cranbourne maiden over 1500m in April, before she put in a solid effort in listed fillies company over a mile, settling back and running fairly well for 8th. She’s VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

probably not up to the top level just yet but is by Pins out of a stakeswinning Zabeel mare, and could still certainly be worthy of a ticket in some spring assignments over a bit more ground.

Given her stout breeding, it is likely that she will only continue to improve.

Obviously the Cups aren’t the only spring races of interest, so how about a quick summation of some recentlyturned three-year-olds? Darley looks to again have a very strong hand this season – which is only natural after their domination of two-year-old features in the autumn and winter – and I will be paying particular attention to their Caulfield Guineas nominations.

I’ll get to the absolutely outstanding prospect that is the dual Group 1 winner Helmet in a moment, but a couple of ‘second stringers’ might also be worth following.

Peter Snowden’s Commands colt Kuhreihen looked very green when a late-closing second at his sole career run, having run into a pretty smart one in next start G3 South Australian Sires’ Produce Stakes winner Cute Emily.

However, Darley juveniles are generally very well educated, and one would think that the necessary adjustments to his race-day manners have been made during his winter spell. This could easily have improved Kuhreihen by several lengths, which might just see him become a competitive force at the highest level.

I thought the Viscount gelding Tunes was pretty impressive in winning his debut by 5.5L at Geelong in midJuly, and think he might also handle the graduation to stakes class should Snowden decide him worthy of the opportunity. As for Helmet, I am a firm believer that he should be kept very safe as a major factor in the Cox Plate, in what looks an extremely weak year in the weight-for-age ranks. When a horse does everything in his power to throw away a Group 1 but still wins it by a length, you know he’s pretty good, and Helmet does present as the perfect Cox Plate proposition racing up on the speed with no weight on his back.

I’ll also be waiting to see if Mick Kent’s Stravinsky filly Ervbefel is placed on the Thousand Guineas trail. She only had three starts as a two-year-old but put in a bottling fifth behind Triple Asset in the Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at Flemington last autumn, and I think the mile should suit her this prep with a bit of further maturing under her belt.

P.P.M.

Perth Turf With Costa Rolfe

The former Victorian Kincaple was most impressive winning at his Perth debut, having headed west after his failure in the Adelaide Cup. Over the 1700m at Belmont (27/7), the son of Pentire sliced through the field from a rearward position to win running away by 2.8 lengths.

He backed that super impressive effort up with another strong performance over the 1600m in Saturday grade, taking a while to wind up but really getting warm late to narrowly go down to the in-form Trustee Brown. Given the generally weak staying ranks, he can continue on his winning way as he stretches out in trip.

Judging by the way he won the listed Belmont Newmarket (6/8), more sprint wins are just around the corner for Kid Choisir. Paul Harvey rode the chestnut patiently off the speed before weaving a passage and really letting him go in the final 200m.

It appeared that the five-year-old won with plenty in reserve and I think he can go on with the job.

Caves Road has already proven himself a quality conveyance by winning three of his six career starts, and I think there are greater successes in store for this son of Lion Heart. He raced wide throughout over 1300m at Belmont (2/7) but the torrid passage didn’t faze him at all, racing away easily to defeat Belora by 1.7 lengths. He followed that up with a strong frontrunning performance over 1400m, showing a stack of speed to lead all the way.

Mantango – 0.8 length astern in second – then franked that form by scoring at his next outing.

Lindsey Smith can continue to place this nice versatile prospect to advantage in the coming weeks.

Fred Kersley’s filly Caiguna got home very well behind Dual City on debut (8/6), having settled 15th in a field of 16 before getting home nicely for fifth.

She showed enough at her next two starts – again making up good late ground on both occasions – before being sent for a five-week freshen. She is no star but I am confident she can break her maiden status at a mid-weeker in the near future, with the mile and perhaps beyond looking well within her scope.

Another mare with a bit of staying potential could be Adam Durrant’s Durrahmoore. The four-year-old has only faced the starter twice but caught the eye at Pinjarra (14/7), having jumped to 1400m from 1000m on debut at Northam. She relished the extra 400m and really found the line strongly for a 0.8L third behind Dirty Flirty. The daughter of Love A Dane looks set to improve again over more ground, and should open her account in the near future.

Though she won’t actually be going around in WA, punters must respect Danny Morton’s classy filly Bliss Street in anything she contests this spring.

She appears to have been set for a Thousand Guineas campaign at this stage and I think she can measure up to top company. The daughter of Flying Spur and Jade Diva looked outstanding when last seen winning the Group 3 Sires Produce (2/4) at Ascot over 1400m, and she looks certain to appreciate 1600m. Follow her with confidence.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

13

HE CHILDREN IN THIS ARTICLE ARE THE TWOYEAR-OLDS FOR THE COMMENCEMENT OF ANY SEASON. In our case it is 2011/2012, and while it has already begun nothing of any consequence should have happened in this new season, so far as the babies are concerned. In fact, in many cases you’re not going to find the best of them appearing until 2012. It used to be quite a common fact that when they headed towards the Rosehill carnival, they would have in all likelihood a goodly handful of successful runs under their belts.

These days, it’s not uncommon for them to go into the biggest race of all (and by that I naturally mean the Golden Slipper) with only a couple of runs or perhaps three to their credit.

I still think that one of the most valuable criteria, so far as identifying the best of the babies, is always going to be a relatively unblemished record.

It’s a rarity for them to be winning the very best races out of the blue: last season, for example, Sepoy took out both the biggest prizes, and while this isn’t a totally regular feature, it’s one of the best fundamental guides you can get. Sepoy had won the Blue Diamond in what was very like a demolition job with a wrecking ball, and consequently his effort in the principal Sydney race came as no sort of surprise to anybody. In fact, he was always well up in the betting, mostly favourite, as befitted the horse which had demonstrated the right to be anticipated as the best.

One of my favourite criteria for judging horses is one you have doubtless read from me on many occasions before this: the “been there

14 – SEPTEMBER 2011

and done that” fundamental. For me this has been one of the very best guides over many years, and so far as the youngsters are concerned, I have time and again, virtually every year in fact, come up with good priced winners in the early races using very little but this basic observation.

Generally speaking, after a win in city grade the next start for one of these two-year-olds will see it lumbered with a penalty. Naturally this doesn’t occur with set weights but even in those races you will often find “with penalties and allowances” mentioned underneath the initial details of the race. In other words, if a horse has already won a relatively equivalent race in town then you can expect some sort of weight penalty.

Sprint race penalties, especially up to 1200m, are rarely able to blunt the edge of proven babies. This stage is gained by experience: they learn. When we come to Part Two

Nash Rawiller

of this session, we’ll talk about their educators, but just so far as they themselves are concerned the very fact that they line up in a real race is terribly important. It becomes even more important from our point of view if they win the race. We have the kind of information that we just can’t get anywhere else. The connections, especially the trainer, may have a pretty fair idea of their horse’s ability, but that’s all in the lap of the gods and every year you’re going to see, from September through to around Christmas time, several situations where the racing press establishes an unraced horse as favourite, only to see it rolled by the only last start winner in the field.

But let me make one vitally important point at this stage: this is unlikely to be a situation where you will get a $51 winner. It’s far more likely that you are going to be supporting a really good bet at around the $6 mark. That’s just an arbitrary price on my part, as it could be significantly better than this and, on the other hand, it could be quite heavily backed into, say, $3 second favourite. That’s a subject for an entirely new investigation (not that we haven’t done it before).

So you are seeking genuine value if you are going to look for the real quality amongst these two-year-olds, and the very basic truth is that you know bugger-all about them, other than what you have been told by the press in one form or another, and it’s terribly important to remember that they can only be getting their information from sources connected with the actual juvenile itself. They have never seen it in a fully fledged VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

race because it’s never been in one. If you look back through your records or you think about the bets you’ve made on the juveniles over the years, I’d be pretty sure that you’d soon admit that your only knowledge has emanated from this totally unsubstantiated network. The very idea of taking incredibly short odds, based on a level of knowledge I described rather colourfully above, must surely be laughable for any serious investor. So it wins and you miss out on the return around $1.70 or $1.80. Well, so what?

I have no idea how many failures I’ve seen on the part of first starters.

True, an occasional sensation arrives, and sometimes, as in the case of Black Caviar, or for that matter Makybe Diva, they turn up late by relative appearance standards. That will always happen. But you can save yourself a lot of money and a lot of heartache (and at the same time show a respect for your own intelligence level) by shying away from something which has never started. Let me repeat: the only knowledge you can have of this horse is what you have been told by someone who has a vested interest in putting a column together. “Been there, done that” might well be the most important proof you demand of any two-yearold, prior to even considering a bet.

As to the breeding, I won’t bore you to tears by dredging up 50,000 examples of horses which cost the earth of the sales and go down to horses which cost minuscule fractions of the big ones. I wouldn’t argue for a moment that the breeding doesn’t count and that it’s unusual, rather than usual, for an unheralded sire to produce junior top class winners. Later on in their career, horses can come to the fore, even the

unfashionably bred ones. Sometimes you get a mare which goes to stud a maiden and produces nothing but stars. Maybe this is something to do with the matching, I don’t know, and in many cases it’s obviously to do with their grandpappies and grandmamas. All other things aside, you and I can’t tell very much at all by what the horse cost, apart from being pretty sure that it’s going to start its career at an unreasonably short price.

Time and again you’ll get something which is already been there and done it pitched against this “million dollar sensation”, and I can assure you that there will be plenty of occasions of great joy for you by applying this most simple of criteria: been there, done it, back it.

Incidentally, this is often a golden opportunity for an each way bet. It’s also frequently a tremendous gift from the gods in terms of a staggered bet. For example, now that we have the corporates in on the act you’re going to find many occasions where they offer you what turn out to be quite ridiculous generous prices for the place about our “been there done thats”. No, you’re not going to get 1/4 the odds (well, not in many cases anyway, unless you back them each way with the bookie and take an offered price), but you’re dealing with an entirely different market. It could be that the horse you’re looking at is the only one in the field that’s won over this course and distance, and that it’s done it recently. No, don’t ignore this, don’t just nod your head and say “well yes, maybe that’s so”, this is really vital. I see several cases every spring and into the summer where our particular focus horses are

• Continued Page 41

A Gift, A Bonus & More

Yours

FREE

SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS & ORDER FORM VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

Hong Kong’s new season (2011-12) is due to kick off in September. You can follow Kevin Knight’s horses to follow in each issue of PPM. WINNING MASCOT: Began moderately, soon picked up to better than midfield position, saved ground turning in, fought on steadily to narrowly miss second.

EN MASSE: Rated behind midfield, 2-wide with cover.

Peeled out into the centre of the course in the straight and let down well.

GLITTERING: Sat behind pace on fence to home straight.

Responded well when afford clear run 250m but the post came too soon.

MASTER ELITE: Half a step slow from the barrier. Rear, blocked long time in the straight, came free late and ran on in the last 150m.

SUPER BOBO: Taken back from wide to second last one off, followed winners through turn, wide bid, just failed.

SEA PRINCE: Took rail easily and led by one length at advantageous slow sectionals, made all without threats.

VICTORY IDE SAY: Jumped well. Settled nicely in rear, gained between rivals in the straight, split horses from 100m out and came strongly for third.

LONGWAH SUPREME: Raced keenly in a 3-wide position ahead of midfield, quickened well under top weight inside 300m, swept to the front nearing 100m and drew clear. Impressive. ** You can follow Hong Kong racing at the PPD Club (www. practicalpunting.com.au).

Members have access to the best-bet selections of HK-based Kevin Knight. In the ‘free’ section we have premeeting summaries from the Racing Post in Hong Kong.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

15

ights Of Heaven Zabeel – I’m in Heaven (Volksraad) Gender: Female (Mare) Birth-date: 28/10/2007 Official Age: Four Years Old (becomes 5yo on 1/8/2012) Dosage Profile (DP) = 1-5-10-2-0 [Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic-SolidProfessional] Total Dosage Points = (18) Dosage Index (DI) = 1.57 Centre of Distribution = 0.28 If you’re one of those people who have been following racing in Australia for the last few decades, then there’s a chance that you might remember seeing Lights Of Heaven’s noble sire, Zabeel, as a galloper for Colin Hayes back in 1990. He did pretty well on the track and managed to pick up the Australian Guineas-Gr.1 for his pains and the Moonee Valley Stakes-Gr.2, Alister Clark Stakes-Gr.2, Craiglee Stakes-Gr.2 and Debonair Stakes-Gr.3 as well.

Doubtless you’ll know what sort of a sire he became but I bet you don’t know what his name means. Actually, I have no idea either, but I do know that his famous Dubaian owner, Sheik Hamdan Al Maktoum, will have had something to do with it. Of course, I couldn’t bear the thought that I’d never in my life considered what the devil Zabeel meant, so I decided to whack ‘Zabeel’ into the all-seeing eye that is Google and, omitting the oodles of references to the champion sire of Cambridge Stud, found out that Zabeel is a central suburb of Dubai.

I confess that I was a bit disappointed when I found this out.

In fact it got worse. When I further discovered that this no doubt glittering suburb was split into two excitingly

16 – SEPTEMBER 2011

named areas called Zabeel 1 and Zabeel 2 I felt aggrieved. I mean, they hardly set the pulse racing do they?

I kind of hoped Zabeel would mean something exotic like ‘Camel Dentist’ or ‘Pile of Sand’ or ‘Another Pile of Sand’ or something equally fun and extraordinary. If Zabeel had meant ‘Gillard’ I’d have felt more zing.

Still, Zabeel, or Za’abeel as it says on the map, is at least home to what looks like a very big equine hospital, catering for all kinds of horses who are feeling a bit under the weather (or, perhaps, some perfectly well horses that have the nous to cheat the system with their fake Medicare cards). I think it’s rather nice to know that there’s somewhere in the Arab world that is catering for sick horses. Or perhaps I’ve got the wrong end of the stick and it’s the staff that’s equine, with human patients being pushed in their wheelchairs by pretty filly nurses, while eminent horse doctors struggle to hold up X-Rays to the light.

Anyway, one horse that seemed determinedly well in herself this year is yet another fine Peter Moody filly racking up a formidable unbeaten run. Her name is Lights Of Heaven (if only ‘Zabeel’ meant this – <sigh>) and she seems to be well worth keeping an eye on.

Pedigree Pointers

Outstanding fillies are, of course, stock-in-trade around Camp Moody but the surprising thing about Lights Of Heaven is that she started her career in a maiden at Cranbourne on January 23rd 2011 and only 61 days, and three runs later, she’d become a multiple Group race winner and winner of the Group 1 Australasian Oaks. Not bad really. Black Caviar took a year-and-a-half to get from her debut to her first Group 1 win, so the champion trainer of Melbourne (and Victoria) should be heartily applauded for creating and nursing this achievement from such an inexperienced filly.

Yes, there’s no doubt that following Lights Of Heaven’s career could prove as exciting as following Black Caviars, but as to whether she will remain unbeaten for much longer is tempting fate a bit. I get the impression though that she has been aimed at some pretty impressive heights this season and I’m not surprised that her trainer has mentioned that he has “high hopes” for Lights Of Heaven. Her spring campaign is destined to rise and crescendo through September and October, with her grand finale being in the Caulfield Cup. Zabeel has, of course, been an absolutely superb sire over the years with a long list of major stars to his credit. I did venture to suggest in an article earlier this year that the reason he may have been so successful may not be due to himself alone but is, perhaps, more because of his putting two other super star sires, Sir Tristram and Nureyev, right up close in the pedigrees of every one of his progeny.

Sir Tristram and Nureyev stand as Zabeel’s sire and damsire and both VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

have proven themselves to have been highly influential, with Sir Tristram so often found at the bottom of many good Australian and New Zealand stayers, and Nureyev providing us with great names like Peintre Celebre and Miesque.

It goes further, too, because Zabeel also brings to a pedigree these other champions; Sir Ivor, Sir Gaylord, Round Table, Northern Dancer and French Derby winner Val De Loir. A brilliant combination of elements that Sir Patrick Hogan obviously couldn’t resist when he made his offer to Sheik Hamdan to stand him at his Cambridge stud in New Zealand.

Lights Of Heaven is also a product of the broodmare I’m In Heaven (ex Volksraad) who was a decent racemare, winning six races, before being retired to Trelawney Stud in Cambridge, New Zealand. Owned by Judy Wanless, owner of Peter Moody’s VRC Derby winner Amalfi, I’m In Heaven was at her most effective at around 1600m and her pedigree reflects this quite strongly too.

In fact, while we talk of Zabeel as one of New Zealand’s best sires from the last 20 years we should quickly mention that I’m In Heaven’s sire, Volksraad, has been comparably as effective as Zabeel in Kiwiland, winning six consecutive NZ sire titles from 2002 to 2007 and then two more in 2009 and 2010. Volksraad’s progeny may not have been quite so prominently observed in Australia, unlike Zabeel, but, on results alone, he is just as good a stallion as his rival and I have a suspicion that he is prepotently powerful in his own right.

In fact, I’d rate Volksraad as one of the best sire-sons of Green Desert to have set foot in a breeding barn, right up there with the likes of other Green Deserts like Cape Cross, Oasis Dream, Desert Sun and Invincible Spirit. His genetic influence seems to be pitched as something like that of a sprintermiler.

So, in essence, the marriage of Zabeel’s pedigree to that of I’m In Heaven’s pedigree has delivered to us a fine and even combination of both

Black Caviar

speed and stamina, which is fairly atypical within the pedigrees of most Oaks winners, as they’re frequently over-accented by speed. A problem that leads to confusion about the distance they might be most useful at when the horse gets older.

Now though, Lights Of Heaven has reached the trust of a major human talent in the shape of Peter Moody. His stable has no doubt been rumbling and revving its engine over the winter with a view to roaring off again in the new season in search of another title. The Moody F1 team’s main driver, stable jockey Luke Nolan, is improving in quantum leaps as the seasons tick by, due in large part to the swath of great horses he’s managed

Peter Moody

to be involved with at the stable, so surely this team will haul Lights Of Heaven up to even greater Group 1 heights than her Australasian Oaks win?

Gosh, even from the bare form of that Australasian Oaks we can see that there must be genuine talent housed within Lights Of Heaven.

She could carry all before her this spring, as her beaten adversary in that Australasian Oaks was Absolutely (Redoute’s Choice – Catshaan (Catrail) who went on to lift the title of the AJC Oaks-Gr.1 no less, beating dual G1 winner Shamrocker.

As I mentioned earlier, Moody has named the Caulfield Cup as Lights Of Heaven’s Group 1 destination point and this makes total sense.

There’s no doubt that her pedigree correlates closely with success in that event, unlike many Oaks winners who have wound up there in recent years. I wonder if she can do more.

Her pedigree says that she ought to be a player in distance events from 1800m to 2400m so it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that she could win an Underwood stakes or a Mackinnon Stakes on the way to the Caulfield Cup. If she comes out of the Caulfield Cup OK and is sent on to Flemington for the Melbourne Cup then I sincerely hope that she does herself justice in the ‘race that stops a nation (from being sober)’.

Back at Lights Of Heaven’s birthplace, Trelawney Stud, they proudly talk of their heritage on their website. The ‘History’ page states, “Taking a look through the history books reveals a record seven Melbourne Cup winners – Hi-Jinx, Galilee, Silver Knight, Hiraji, Foxzami, MacDougal and Polo Prince – all spent the early part of their lives at Trelawney before going on to win the great race.” A fine record indeed and I wonder if it isn’t too outlandish to think of an eighth name to add to that illustrious list.

If there’s one man who can pull it off then its Peter Moody, and, after so many great sprinters and milers have passed under his wing, it would be super to see his first truly competitive older stayer come out and win a nice, little bauble like the Melbourne Cup. P.P.M.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

17

ince 1980 I’ve been writing books, articles, and columns about greyhound racing. Not for a living, but because I find it rewarding. My writings, however, never present a detailed proven approach to winning because greyhound tracks vary from one another so much. A plan that works at one track may well fall flat at another. I suggest that you be cautious if someone proposes to provide you with a “packaged” plan of attack. Instead, I generally speak to the process of constructing one’s own approach to a certain track, or to individual tracks. That is, how to build a successful approach.

In that light, I will here present a condensed version of the lesson plan involved in putting together a system that can put money in your pocket. Said plan will then fit your skill level, and work best at the track around which it is built. Be aware that while this preparation will pay good dividends, it will require some time and effort to construct. (Those not willing to devote this time and effort will be the ones who will be feeding the pools that will provide your profits.)

First, you will need to recognise that a scoring approach will be based on the racing “history” of the

dogs involved in a race. This is the basis of the information that you will be learning to interpret. You will also need to be aware that there are a number of factors that can be measured and compared. The basic ones are “Speed”, or ART, (Average Race Time averages); Break, (The recent habits of each dog in terms of how well or poorly it has been getting out of the starting box); Early speed,

(Gain or loss in the early stages of the race); Late Speed, (Does the dog gain or lose positions in the stretch run?); Average Winnings Per Start; Class or Grade, (Any recent changes in this respect? Why?); Recent Lengths Off Winner, (Finishing 2nd. One length behind the winning dog is substantially different than finishing 2nd. 10 lengths behind); Starting Position, (Has this dog done better or worse from certain starting boxes?

Are certain starting boxes more or less favourable at this particular

✔ ✔ FREE

Valued at $200

BIG The

BRE

AK

127% Profit

Big Break Phone Selection Service

18 – SEPTEMBER 2011

track?); Recent Finish History, (How has each dog been finishing in recent races? For this I suggest working out the percentage of WINS and PLACES achieved as a percentage of races started).

There are a few other measurable factors as well, though I consider them less pertinent. If you wonder about any of these, use the same method to “test” them as you will do for the more common ones. This is the “Of and WIN” or “Of and IN”. Here is how you do that: Rank the dogs from 1 to 8 in terms of the factor being tested. Then, OF the dogs ranking #1, how many WON, as a percentage? How many OF the 2nd.

Ranked dogs WON? And so forth. In terms of winning, keep in mind that 12.5 per cent of the dogs in a race will win. (One dog.) Therefore, if any of your tests produce a result, of say, 20 per cent, you have identified a factor that matters.

If a test produces WIN results of only, say, 4 per cent, you likewise are on to a means of making meaningful distinctions. On the other hand, if such a test produces a range of, say, only 8 per cent to 14 per cent, from “worst to best”, this isn’t going to be a factor that will prove too predictive. If you are instead testing for TRIFECTA finishes, as I tend to do, you would

✔ FREE Guaranteed ✔savings over $325 85

SINCE 19

Yearly Subscription to PPM

SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

document those finishes in First, Second, and Third, and the median percentage would be 37.5 per cent.

Once your plan nears completion you will have recognised that all of these factors will not prove to be pertinent in all grades/classes at all tracks. You may well find that you’ll only need to use four or five measuring sticks. Which ones? That will be found in your studies.

Next, how are you going to obtain this data with which you will be building a system?

Sorry – no shortcuts here. No computer software that you can download for the answers. If you have been scoring the races for a while, and have kept your records, you’ll have this information at the ready. If not, you are left to score a sufficient number of races, of each class/grade, on each course length, at each track, to provide you with at least 30-40 races of each type, figuring all of the measurable factors, so that you will be able to find which ones matter, and which ones don’t. Should you wager on these races as you collect this data?

My answer has to be NO, as you’ll not yet have the needed edge. I do recognise that you’ll be tempted to make bets regardless of this, so I can only suggest that you keep them minimal. I’ve known people who handled this on a “dry run” basis and came out well ahead. I’ve known others who have worked out a solid approach, but who have paid dearly for it by wagering before they had it completed.

Here’s what you do with this data you have worked up. You will become readily able to recognise which factors are the most pertinent, those that are less so, and those that tend to be a waste of time. Award the factors that you wish to use a number of “points” based on their pertinence.

For example, your top factor might be ranked with a scoring of – 10 to +10 “points”.

Your second most useful factor a range of -7 to +7 “points”, and so forth. It really doesn’t matter if you set up a system totaling 10 “points” for the perfect top selection, or a total of 1,000 – just so you dedicate a realistic spread which gives you a good indication of the importance of each factor. Thus, you will not only be able to identify the “best” and

“worst” dogs in a race, but you will be able to recognise when the point spread on some races will be so little so as to make that race a wash, with no intelligent wagering approach.

Done with sufficient diligence, this will give you a reasonable scoring of the race. Some say that this is the “easy” part. Next, and at least equally important, you must develop a wagering approach to “fit” your scoring and produce a profit. Again, you can do this with a “dry run”, or you can pay for your education.

Your method here will be to “test”, or “back-test” the various kinds of wagers available to you. Once a race is finished, write down the finish in the order of your selections.

Suppose your third selection won, your fifth selection places, and your first selection came in third. You would document the finish of this race as 3-5-1, (regardless of the dogs’ numbers). Document 30 or 40 such finishes in each class/grade, on each course, at each of the tracks you’ll be playing. Chances are that you will find this exercise rather “humbling”, but this teaches you that predicting the outcomes of dog races is not a “science”.

Document also the dividends paid from the different pools in each of these races. Then, on paper, see what end result various type of wagers would have produced. Would straight WIN bets have generated a profit? Three-dog EXACTA bets?

12/1234/12345 TRIFECTA wagers?

Various other BOXES or KEYS? Try several. Now, you will have before you the means of crafting a professional and profitable approach.

From this you will also readily be able to see if certain types of races simply don’t present any realistic opportunity for a positive return, so that you can skip those types of races in the future. In other words, you’ll learn HOW to bet, and WHEN and when NOT to bet. This is what gets you the “edge”, and makes a hobby into a profit center!

Clearly, all of this takes some time and effort. This is true if one wants to make a success at any undertaking.

The choice is yours. I’ve gotta tell you – if you enjoy dog racing, it’s WAY, WAY more fun to win! And you can!

For more insights into greyhound racing please see my website: www.howtobeatthedograces.com P.P.M.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

FALLEN FOR YOU (2yo, Trained by J Gosden) Well regarded type who made a nice impression when winning first time out over 7f at Newmarket. Stayed on nicely that day suggesting middle distances should suit in time. Can win a nice race this season though in listed or group class.

HARBOUR WATCH (2yo, Trained by R Hannon) Unbeaten 2yo who has the potential to go right to the top. His latest victory came at Glorious Goodwood where he overcame interference to win easily. Trainer and jockey rate him in the same bracket as Canford Cliffs. Heads to the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket next where he will be very hard to beat. Can be expected to develop into a 2000 Guineas contender next season.

MACS POWER (5yo, Trained by J Fanshawe) Tough, consistent 6f handicapper. Has been running well all season being placed at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. His latest third at Goodwood behind the well regarded Hoof It was particularly good form. Granted luck in running he can win a big sprint handicap between now and the end of the season and races like the Portland Handicap at Doncaster and the Gold Cup Handicap at Ayr are sure to be on the agenda.

NATHANIEL (3yo, Trained by J Gosden) Rapidly improving 3yo. Was originally thought of as a St Leger type but has exceeded those expectations with runaway victories at Ascot.

Firstly at the Royal meeting but latterly in the Group 1 King George Stakes where he beat top older horse Workforce easily. He will now be aimed at the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp where given soft ground will take some stopping.

SEA OF HEARTBREAK (4yo, Trained by R Charlton) Consistent type in Listed/Group 3 company.

Gained an overdue success last time out at Newbury winning a listed race over 1m4f. His form stands up well (close 2nd to Timepiece who then won and got placed in two Group 1’s). Now he has his head in front he can win again possibly in a Group 3. Effective on all ground.

TACTICIAN (4yo, Trained by M Bell) Game and tough 4yo stayer. A winner last time out at York over 1m6f, where his performance was notable for the fact that he made all the running in a field of 20 and battled off numerous challengers up the home straight. Is returning to York for the prestigious Ebor Handicap and will be a major contender. Should stay 2m so may turn out to be a Group class stayer next season.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

19

n this special ‘flashback’ feature article, we look back on some of the best articles written by our longtime contributor Martin Dowling. Next month, we will feature a 1980s article by Jon Hudson.

We hear a lot about the ‘second-up syndrome’. Those who believe in it make the sweeping generalisation that horses racing second-up from a spell never win. They avoid them like the plague.

But what do we really know about second-uppers? How much research has been done into their performances? As far as I can tell, not much. As a form fan, I discount the second-up syndrome mentality and treat each horse on its individual merits. I recommend that you do the same.

It is a fact that some horses perform well when having their second race after a spell. Others do not. But this applies to just about every aspect of horseracing. Some do, some don’t!

Some horses handle the wet, others don’t; some like blinkers, others don’t.

But because some horses are hopeless in the wet doesn’t mean that all horses are the same – and, in similar fashion, just because some horses lose second-up, that doesn’t mean every second-upper will fail!

A friend of mine for a long time has made money by looking for horses which ran well at their second start from a spell (either winning or finishing within three lengths of the winner) and then backing them at their third run in. He gets many longpriced winners and placegetters.

You could even extend this idea to, say, five lengths for horses having their second start – the five lengths

20 – SEPTEMBER 2011

being the beaten margin limit at their first run after a spell.

A second-up winner fitting this pattern was longshot Our Caliph at Randwick on May 22. He was spelled after failing at Randwick on November 28, 1992, and didn’t reappear until May 3, at the same

a horse had when resuming from a spell. Some horses may need three or four weeks, some longer, to recover from a tough hit out. It does seem to me that a horse is likely to race better second-up when it has resumed from a spell of four months or more and gone okay at its first run back.

❛ We hear a lot about the 'second-up syndrome’ ❜ track, when he ran 7th of nine runners behind Burrendah Boy over 1200m (Welter class).

The significant aspect of the run was that Our Caliph was beaten only 4.7 lengths, so perhaps the run wasn’t as bad as it may have seemed from the ‘7th of nine’ form line?

Put over 1400m in the same Welter class at the same track 19 days later, Our Caliph – ridden this time

by Grant Cooksley compared to apprentice J. Whitney when first-up – finished well to win at the attractive price of 30/1.

How many second-uppers were in this race? Only three. The other two were Westem Showdown and Ardent Dancer. Western Showdown didn’t fit the system’s rules because it was beaten 7.3 lengths when resuming after a spell. Ardent Dancer did fit the system’s rules as it had finished only 3.9 lengths behind the winner at its first start on resuming.

So, two bets and a winner at 30/1.

Pretty good return in my book! This is but one example but I think it serves to show that a handy elimination rule or two for second-uppers can often pitch fork the small punter into some welcome longshot returns.

Much depends on how hard a run

Then there are those horses which invariably race well early in a campaign. Some horses are noted firstuppers; others have a history of losing first-up then improving sharply. Most horses, of course, take at least three or four runs to swing into top action.

The punter who studies form in an all round way – casting aside likes and dislikes, hunches and biases – should always examine each horse on its merits. As far as second-uppers are concerned the keen punter should: • Check to see if the horse has gone well before when racing second-up.

(Those punters with a computerised database going back 18 months and more will have no problem with this aspect; those punters without a database will have to use formguides like The Sportsman and check back as far as possible.)

• Check to see if the horse ran well at its first run back from a spell.

On this aspect, what you should be looking for is a sign that the horse went well enough to be considered ‘sharp’ for its second-up run. The beaten margin limit of five lengths is a good ‘rule of thumb’ to use for this particular assessment.

• Check for other positive factors.

These can include (a) ability at the VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

track at which it is now racing (b) ability at the distance of today’s race (c) significant weight or class drop from its latest run and (d) significant jockey switch.

All these points are important. In the case of Our Caliph, he was a winner at both track and distance at Randwick and there was a significant jockey change (apprentice Whitney to senior hoop Cooksley). Weight, although up on the gelding’s previous run, was still the Limit (lowest) in the Welter race.

Another example of a second-upper winning at good odds – though not as good as those of Our Caliph was Poetic Launch. The filly resumed from a five months’ letup on April 28 at Sandown and finished 7th, beaten 4.6 lengths. Produce 10 days later at Kilmore, she won by three lengths at 9/4.

Another example: Draft Choice resumed from a spell of around two and a half months and finished 3rd at Caulfield on May 8, beaten around a half length. On May 22, at Caulfield, the colt won at 11/2 when having his second run after the spell.

These are but a few examples that can be gathered to make a dent in that old claim that you should never take seriously a horse racing second-up.

If you follow the ideas I’ve outlined in this article you will soon learn to differentiate between the ‘no go’ second uppers and the ‘likely winners’ second uppers.

FORM STUDY ISSUES Poring over the formguide recently, I suddenly realised I’d been “at it” for three hours, non-stop. And I was only up to race 5!

It set me thinking. How much is too much when it comes to sitting down with a formguide and going through the various races? Is there a point where you can simply strain your brain too much?

I guess it depends on individual personality. Some people I know seem to have been born with the ability to study for long stretches at a time.

Others I know get bored or restless after five minutes of just reading a newspaper or a book, let alone studying a formguide and making decisions.

Sometimes I can spend anything from an hour to three hours on one race. This involves going through the formlines, picking out the races which may be pertinent to today’s race, looking at replays (sometimes three VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

and four times) and then checking out ratings. It all takes time.

Take a simple 1200m race. If you watch it three times that’s at least five minutes of your time, given breaks between viewings. That might be for just one horse! Ten in a race, that’s a minimum 10 replays to watch!

Much depends on the approach you use. A friend who usually does well at the racing caper tells me he quickly picks out one race on the card and concentrates his attention on it.

Twenty minutes is his average time to look at the form.

Many others might scoff at such an approach. There are punters around who feel guilty if they don’t spend time minutely examining every horse, right down to the 100/1 shots!

The US expert George Kaywood has spent some time reviewing the situation of different approaches, and time taken, and so on. Here’s what he has to say at www.handicapping.com: I knocked a book off my bookshelf the other day. It was Ainslie’s Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing, one of the oldies but goodies that I re-read from time to time in which I still discover new ways to look at handicapping concepts. I decided to see which page it fell open to, and it happened to be the chapter Handicapping Theories, and the heading You Can’t Win ‘Em All. I had to read it! In that section, Ainslie talks about the differences among different successful handicapping methods.

I’ve often kicked this around myself and I’m sure you’ve mused about it as well.

If you’re a speed or pace-oriented player, you may wonder how it is that your fellow player who concentrates entirely on class and consistency, picks the same horse you do – or an “unpredictable” winner that you just couldn’t include in your handicapping selections.

Or the weekend player who, using just a few traditional handicapping factors, only bets a horse that won its last race. Or, likewise, in the same manner, the bettor who begins by eliminating any horse that won its last race.

It’s hard to accept that any one of these different types of players can be classified as an expert but at the end of day, if that player has stuck to his preferred handicapping method and shown a profit, can he not be called a pro?

P.P.M.

CHECK OUT OUR NEW FEATURES Free Access: • Daily News – Breaking Racing News

• Blog Stable – Punters Corner – On the Punt

• Hot Gossip – with Brian Blackwell

• Talkin’ Form – Racing Preview Podcast

• Questions & Answers – Ask me anything!

• Practical Punting Video Gallery – Check out Punting Patto and his racing selections

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

21

BY TODD BURMESTER

MELBOURNE ow quickly the years go! I’ve heard it said that time goes faster the older you get. That must be a sign that I am getting older, because by the time you are reading this it means we have wrapped up yet another racing year.

I thought now was as good a time as ever to look back at the year that was, and there is no doubt it’s been chock full of quality racing.

Stealing the show, no doubt, has to be the wonder mare Black Caviar.

I speculated throughout the year that she would be beaten but, as I write this, she’s still undefeated. It’s fair to say that Peter Moody has done a great job of looking after her. One has to wonder slightly – is he just looking after the horse or is he now also looking after the unbeaten record? They all get beaten eventually, so I guess the day will come. I’ll come back to Peter Moody and his deeds a little later.

The Cox Plate, of course, went to So You Think, who in any other year, without Black Caviar, would have been the standout all on his own.

He had a great year, and then was quickly whisked away from us, and has gone on to win overseas. It will be interesting to see where his path tracks from here.

The Cup went back overseas last year with a very dominant win from Americain. It will be interesting to see where he goes from here. Will he come back to defend his title (that looks very likely after his first-up win in France)? Can he do it? The emphatic nature of his 2010 Cup win has to stand him in good stead for a title defence.

But back to that man Peter Moody.

I’ve been a long time fan and I think it’s fantastic to see him getting the success that he is. Much like he does with his horses, he’s taken his own time as a trainer to reach the heights but once he hit his straps, The Peter Moody Show really has become a runaway train. It seems obvious

22 – SEPTEMBER 2011

MONITOR

Moody has always had a plan, and now it’s truly coming to fruition. If I owned a horse he’d be the man I would want putting the polish on it.

There’s no debating that Moody’s dominance is not just my opinion.

The statistics back up exactly what I

David Hayes

am saying. As I write, there is still a meeting or two to play out this season, but Moody has a strike rate of around 21 per cent. That’s not bad when you consider he’ll go close to having 1,000 runners this season.

Probably the most impressive statistic in Moody’s favour is his utter dominance of the Melbourne Trainers’ Premiership. As I write, Moody leads by around about 60 winners from Mark Kavanagh.

Continuing on the impressive list of achievements by Moody, he has also cracked the 100 winners mark this season, a feat previously achieved

by Freedman and Hayes. Not only will Moody absolutely gap his rivals in terms of number of winners trained, but he’s trained the most Group 1 winners with nine, which is two ahead of Peter Snowden. Black Caviar has obviously helped him take that title!

The key to Moody’s success comes down to patience and placement.

Plenty of trainers want to shoot for the stars pretty quickly with their horses. Some pull it off, others simply find themselves going around to make up the numbers. Look at Moody’s patience with Black Caviar for example. Plenty of time to ensure she was in peak condition when any injuries started to niggle, and plenty of time to progress through the classes before sweeping all before her in her most recent campaign. Moody doesn’t just show this sort of expert placement with Group 1 winners – any horse carrying his polish is in a race that it can win, and is generally fit enough to win. They are not there to make up the numbers/ As for what the 2011/2012 year holds, I’m not sure – but one can be fairly certain that the Peter Moody Express isn’t stopping any time soon.

One would hope that Moody keeps the operation within Australia and isn’t tempted to foreign shores like David Hayes, David Hall and John Size before him. Personally, I can’t see that happening as Moody has talked about keeping Black Caviar racing within Australia for now at least, so you would imagine he’ll stay here himself. Roll on the Peter P.P.M. Moody Express.

TODD’S BEST ANABAA’S LEGACY – Just ran out of condition when caught by a smart one, Flemington 27 July.

MODULE – Good win at Flemington July 27 and has a bit of scope.

GOSSIP GIRL – Another good winner at Flemington July 27 leading all the way.

STATE GRADE – Looks an improver who ran a cracker first up at 1000m.

AND ROCK – Won at Sandown July 27, might make a nice 3yo.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

• Continued From Page 5

• Continued From Page 10

also contest the Let’s Elope. Dasoudi put in a game run to finish second behind Veyron in the Easter Hcp at Ellerslie.

Keep The Peace’s trainer Shaune Ritchie would love to win a Group 2 event across the Tasman with her having already been placed in that grade when third to Well Rounded at Flemington last November. The Keeper 5-year-old doesn’t love bad ground, but she handles it well enough to be considered when those underfoot conditions exist. She’ll probably fly straight to Melbourne following a trial outing at home.

Other members of the Ritchie Melbourne-bound party include Roi D’Jeu – fifth over 2400m at Rosehill in May, NZ and Avondale Cup winner – the grinding stayer Showcause, and 2009 NZ Cup victor My Scotsgrey.

The Don Sellwood-trained Anabandana was the star 2-yearold filly racing in New Zealand last season. She caught astute judges’ eyes on many occasions when she won four races in a row – collecting the two Group 1 races for her age group. A suitable target appears to be the Group 1 Guineas to be contested at Caulfield on October 12.

In summary I’d suggest keeping a close eye on Scarlett Lady and Lion Tamer as leading spring cup hopes from this side of the Tasman. But please don’t let Jimmy Choux out of your sight for one moment. Despite him being set a tougher assignment – the Cox Plate – he shouldn’t be thrown on your betting scrapheap.

Enjoy the spring carnival and best wishes for your punting!

like a more suitable distance. I’ve seen a number of times where a horse is always finishing its race off well and everyone thinks it is looking for more ground; however when lifted in distance they find themselves in a race of a completely different pace and it doesn’t necessarily suit their strong finishing style.

What happens here is, they go and fail over the longer distance, which was perceived to be more suitable, sometimes at very short odds, and then come back in distance and win at longer odds! The relevant pace of each race, and the length of finishing sprint the horse is capable of are the factors that are playing out here.

Understanding the pace of races, and finishing sprints is a whole different topic, however!

The other form factor that I think complements the distance variation for your selection is the number of days since its last run. If you have a horse coming back sharply in distance from one week to the next, it may be less likely to handle it than a horse that may have had two or three weeks between runs as a small freshen up.

This comes back to the logic theory of horses not being machines. Don’t expect your selection to be capable of doing something that just doesn’t make sense. As I write this piece, the meeting at Caulfield on July 30 provided a race that shows just how volatile distance variations can be. I speak of the 2400m 3yo event. The betting was dominated by Snitza and Lopov. Interestingly, most of the field, including these two that headed the betting, faced stiff rises in distance.

Snitza started favourite following a very strong last start win over 2000m.

The race on July 30 was run over 2412m. Lopov faced a distance rise of about 700m into the race. Most of the field were rising a similar amount of distance to Snitza.

To my way of thinking, this race could have been a recipe for disaster where a longshot result was likely (due to the fact that the market had no true way of understanding the optimum distance range for a lot of the runners). The punters were prepared to leave Snitza at the top of the market with Lopov second pick. Lopov was a big question mark in my opinion due to such a sharp

P.P.M.

A Gift, A Bonus & More

Yours

FREE SEE CENTRE C PAGES FOR DETAILS

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

rise in distance, though I too would have been more likely to trust Snitza at this distance, particularly given it had won over 2300m previous (albeit in lesser grade than this race).

Incidentally at its last start when winning over 2000m Snitza was allowed out to $10 in betting – was it because it was back 300m in distance that day?

As the race turned out on July 30, Lopov recorded an easy win, running the distance right out, while Snitza was unable to run a place, and its form from its easy last start win was seemingly out the window. The possible rough result that I spoke of arrived for third place, with Dell paying $15 for the place.

The point of this example was to highlight that punters were more than happy to accept significant distance increases for the two favourites, yet had they been distance decreases I wonder whether the market would have been less accommodating?

So, weighing everything up that we have looked at, what recommendations can be made overall when it comes to distances?

Firstly, the obvious one – don’t be scared off by a horse coming back in distance up to 400m. I think the various figures explored here prove that beyond doubt.

Secondly, be more wary of a horse increasing in distance than those decreasing. When an increase is faced, check whether the distance the horse is increasing to is one that it has been successful over, or at least run well over in the past. Without a proven record, your guess as to whether it will handle it is just that, a guess.

An impressive run over a shorter distance won’t always translate once the distance increases (does More Joyous ring a bell?).

Thirdly, it appears that horses racing at distances over 1600m are more likely to cope with increases in distance than their sprinting counterparts, whilst, in general, the distance of today’s race seems to have no baring on those stepping back in distance.

Next time you pick up the formguide, or hear someone talking negatively of a horse coming back in distance, think differently and promote its chances, don’t consider it a negative.

P.P.M. SEPTEMBER 2011 –

23

ete chastised me for missing the bleeding obvious once again.

“You had to be on ‘im!” And he was right too. An extraordinary horse had passed before his eyes and the groundswell of emotion within him and around him left him agog that I could have considered anything else in the race. He knew that this would be no ordinary horse race, because it contained an unbelievable superstar.

Frankel.

Some of you may remember me talking about Pete. My best friend since childhood, Pete ended up residing in Paris, aged 21, while I lived in London at the same age. He went to a classy Parisian business school while I shuffled into a merchant bank to rub shoulders with the mightiest egos in town. Quite what ‘business’ Pete got up to I was never quite certain. It didn’t seem to have anything to do with business as I understood it.

Anyway, as a consequence of old fishface living in ‘La Paree’, I’ve spent an awful lot of time in France.

Paris became my favourite city in the world for so many reasons that it would be impossible to name them all; although most of the reasons could easily be filed under titles like ‘Women’, ‘Food’, ‘Drunkenness’, ‘Culture’ and ‘The Generally F****** Amazing’. Well, that’s Paris for you.

Our tale of two cities was markedly different from Dickens’ story but every bit as dirty and grimy. Not because we shared carnal relations (God help me) but largely because we frequented every insalubrious bar,

24 – SEPTEMBER 2011

club, casino and, let’s say, ‘nightspots’ that both towns had to offer – not to mention every kind of racecourse in between as well.

We never had a dull moment – apart from the hangovers, of course – and it was Pete who discovered with me the delight of pronouncing my family name in the way that any Frenchman would; giving us more fun than a box of Mexican jumping beans. Getting a Frog to say ‘Mould’, as they read it, gives the marvellous re-mangled outcome of ‘Moo-Lerd’. If the French version is blurted quickly and forthrightly it gives the English slang for – and this definition comes from no less a source than the Oxford English Dictionary Of Unpleasant Words – ‘being pulverised out of your mind due to a vast amount of top-class alcohol’. Oh the irony. Oh the mirth. When we found this out we laughed so hard we could not breathe . . . then got bladdered.

But I digress. Frankel was the issue.

Pete, unbeknownst to me, had Eurostar-ed from Paris, deposited his luggage at his London flat and had then loafed down to the South Downs in Sussex to watch Frankel cross swords with another star miler in the shape of Canford Cliffs. It was billed in The Racing Post, like a number of high-class races over this year’s English summer, as a ‘Clash of the Titans’ - and they weren’t far wrong. Canford Cliffs was a fivetime Group 1 winner up against the talk of the town in Frankel, and my little mucker, Pete, was to stand as witness.

Sadly, my blog foolishly chose the

speedier pedigree of Canford Cliffs to drive my Sussex stakes selection, rather than the obvious towering class of Frankel. Most of the rest of the world was with Frankel. Actually, I still contest that Frankel is bred much more like a 2000m horse, and ultimately he may turn that way, but that’s my problem.

Nevertheless, texting me his whereabouts from the saloon bar at Goodwood, Pete crowed at me from his high spot on my beloved South Downs. I slumped back in surprise on my West Australian sofa and smiled wryly amidst my mild cloud of jealousy. Petey-Boy was at Glorious Gooders! Curse him.

They went down to post. They returned. Frankel mauled them.

Things ought to have felt even worse after Frankel’s outstanding triumph – thanks to the effusive post-match text from old fishface – but they didn’t. I was overjoyed by Frankel. He’d decimated Canford Cliffs by an extraordinary five lengths. A truly incredible feat. Yet, sure enough, straight from the melée outside the winners’ enclosure a gleeful, spiked message was sent from iPhone to iPhone.

“Yeah, I’d hate to have been on Canford,” he chortled.”I was on Frankel, of course. It would have felt a bit like opposing Dessie.”

A crushing put-down for any Englishman aged over 40, believe me.

‘Dessie’ was Desert Orchid; the 1980s steeplechaser and God-given grey that jumped like a stag for us when we bloody needed him to.

Rub it in, why don’t you, Peter, you git. Anyway, I never opposed ‘Dessie’.

However, in spite of Pete’s wind-up text, I was happy enough on my little, cottage sofa. Frankel’s performance was fabulous and jaw-dropping.

Luckily for us here in Australia, we’ve been having very similar moments watching Black Caviar.

My jaw certainly dropped when the nation’s heroine dotted up on topweight in the Newmarket Handicap as if she were on a morning canter.

As I may have mentioned before somewhere, we are living in a golden era and, thanks to my little telly and the occasional excursion to the racecourse, I feel like I’ve seen some mind-bogglingly brilliant racehorses in the last decade or so. Can it be any better than this?

P.P.M.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

PROFIT PAGE Our experts pick their top horses to follow

Sydney

AERONAUTICAL Has quite a turn of foot. Based on his last two runs you would expect he is still on the improve. It can be dangerous to assess a horse on form for the spring at this stage, and he was rock hard fit, but he looks the part.

PHENOMENAL LASS Has come back looking as if she wants to race. Won a mediocre affair at Randwick but did win with ridiculous ease. She had a good placing in the Brisbane winter before this and can be relied on to try her heart out.

PINWHEEL There was some money for him upon his resumption, doubtless from form students of his previous return runs. Didn’t really fire, but he still kicked on. He’s a Lonhro and a lovely horse. All those minor places (45 per cent wins, 90 per cent places) suggest each way’s virtually a sure thing.

SWEETEST MELODY Won four of her first eight starts and looked anything last campaign. At her first run this time in, she was well settled and then just too good where it counted. This is surely just the start of a great new season for her.

Melbourne DIGGERSANDDEALERS A “Horses to Follow” nomination in our previous issue, this seven year old is at least effective to 2100m. Not the greatest of champions, but when you have something like this trier going for you, you’ve always got a show.

PINNACLES Another trier, a swooping type that prefers the bigger spaces. Somehow just missed at Flemington and then the rider withdrew a protest. Surely close to another city win and Craig Williams suits.

TEMPLE OF BOOM This ex-Brisbane horse has always been so close to the big time. He won with a leg in the air at Flemington recently and showed his true worth. Clearly he’s a straight track fan and there might be more in store.

THAT’S THE ONE Very smart winner at second lifetime start, remaining undefeated. Has a nice combination of breeding lines and might very well go on with things. Should handle the really wet too. Carried the topweight here.

Brisbane

LAKE GEORGE This fellow has always seemed to be around the secondbest horses in Brisbane, but you know, this season he races as if he’s turned the corner. It’s all there if he can just put it together.

TOMBOY Massive win at Doomben. Just a joke really, treating her rivals with utter contempt. Has a 50 per cent winning strike rate and that will be improved upon, as long as they don’t get over-ambitious.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

✸

Best Of The Month

NOBLE PARK Came with a late run, never going to win but looked very promising on August 6. He has three wins and a placing from five starts and he’s OK to at least 2000m.

TASSIE TIPS

WITH KEVIN CASEY WESTERN WAGER – Last seen finishing down the track in the Thomas Lyons back in February, this bloke is due to resume soon. The son of West Quest has been a quality galloper from day one, putting together an impressive record of seven wins from 22 starts. Hopefully you can read this in time for the resuming run because he really is a gun 1stup galloper. If not keep him in your sights anyway.

Won out to 1660m last prep.

BANCA MO – This galloper is shaping the right way early into his career. He put in a sub-par run in mid-July (was slow out and not punished late

by McCoull) but bounced back with a big win when taken back to Hobart on July 31. That made it two wins from four starts and there are more victories coming. He’s in the hands of David & Scott Brunton and they will continue to place him astutely. Evidently wet tracks pose no problem.

BEL PRICE – This Bel Esprit filly has started her career in encouraging fashion. After a neat 5th on debut when missing the kick, she returned to Launceston 21 days later and was closing in very strongly against her fellow 3yos. The dash she has shown at the end of both those starts will ensure she finds her first win before too long.

THE CLEANER – Has hit his straps of late, and the 2100m distance of recent races seems to be the key. Has registered two all-the-way wins at Launceston recently and he should be very competitive in better class over the same journey.

Presumably he still has plenty of improvement being a 4yo with only seven overall starts to his name. Perfectly named for numerous puns . . . he could wipe the floor with them!

TREE BANDIT – On recent showings this son of Mugharreb looks to be getting closer to that all important breakthrough win. He’s had nine tries so far but to be fair he did get into some tough races at the end of his first prep, namely the Guineas and Derby. His 2nd-up finish, over 1400m at Launceston on August 7, was just as you’d want to see. He’ll find a winnable race soon, presumably somewhere between 1600-2100m.

MIDORI’S QUEST – Happy to follow this George Blacker-trained mare after an eye-catching debut in early August. She jumped OK but was quick to drift back and settled a clear last giving the front runner about 12 lengths. The daughter of West Quest then hooked out wide in the straight and kept finding that line to be beaten only three lengths. The education will have done her good. Follow up.

TRANQUIL LASS – This one has had a good run of form lately and it seems to correspond with her drawing ‘friendly’ barriers. To illustrate that point, at Launceston on August 7, she drew the rail and after trailing up on the inside she got an absolute dream run through as they straightened. She took the lead but the winner collared her right on the line.

No excuses there but it proved she is nearly always hard to beat when given her chance. She is 3:5:1 from 12 starts when drawing five or better, 0:0:3 from 15 when drawn worse. Bet accordingly.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

25

THE

PUNTER With the Optimist

his is the third and final journey into the past, looking at the three dozen chapters that comprised one of my most popular books, Always The Optimist.

I’m hoping that you’ve had as much enjoyment and education out of this somewhat sentimental trip as I’ve had. Next month, I’m promising you something quite special, but I’m not giving you any clues or hints: you’ll just have to be patient and sit it out!

On the other hand, I’m pretty certain after all these years of my readership, and I reckon that it will be one of the most useful articles I’ve ever penned.

Well, come to think of it, I don’t “pen” them anymore, and haven’t for some years, thanks to the advent of the computer age. I don’t miss it (the penning thing, I mean), because writing on the computer gives us the added advantage of being able to look at the overall structure and

the accessibility of our work. I’m sure that our readers have benefited greatly by this advance. So, without further ado, let’s proceed to knock over the last dozen-plus chapters of this book.

Chapter 23 was in fact written by Ian MacArthur, a lifetime racing friend of mine who for many years had to put up with my little observations that he “didn’t really work”. That was because Ian was a professional punter/investor; it’s a way of life that a lot of readers I’m sure would envy, but rest assured that it was also a way of life that involved a great deal of serious study and close comparison, especially in the days prior to modern computerised formguides.

Ian’s chapter was headed “A Day at the Races” and I have to say that, although this is a little over 20 years old now, the vast majority of what Ian

Sincero

26 – SEPTEMBER 2011

had to say is as appropriate today as it was then.

Ian commenced with what he called “the rules of the track”. In the first place, he advised you to bring your money and leave your credit and debit cards at home. I was at the track in September, 1991, with Ian and perhaps the best newspaper selector in Australian racing over the past 30 years, John Michael. It was John who commented that “if you have dug your hole, don’t try to climb out of it on that day”. He further observed that “there’s always another day, with a better foothold”. I said then that it was so obvious, yet one of the most perceptive pieces of professional advice I’d ever come across. I have no reason to change my views now.

The second piece of advice was to ignore all tips at the racetrack.

You probably don’t need to be told that, but that’s extended to anything that occurs after you’ve made your selections and made your decisions as to what you will, and won’t, be doing that day. I’ll change my own mind if (in my own opinion) the odds aren’t right, or for any of 50 other reasons, but why on earth would I want to hear from somebody who had a vested interest, one way or another, in swaying me towards something that I never intended to support anyway?

Forget the racetrack, this has become more and more the province of the tipping shock jocks on the television, with various obvious groups attempting to outdo each other with their last-minute “vital information”, which must be being relayed to you at a disadvantage, so far as you are concerned.

The next piece of advice was to be very careful with the early markets: once again, you can be misled here.

This extends way past racing and into virtually all sports. Watch out for situations where, say, the second or third emergency is very strongly fancied in the market. The likelihood is that it will not get a run, and consequently anything else that is supported in that particular field will suffer from massive deductions.

Ironically, eight or nine times out of every 10, what happens is that the horse you have supported eventually opens in the final market at better odds than you have now accepted.

Ian’s next piece of advice was to go to the track expecting to win.

It’s still my view, after speaking to VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

thousands of punters and writing this material over 40-odd years, that the vast majority of punters, be they at the TAB, the track, their favourite clubs, or on their computers, do not seriously expect to come away with more money than they head out with.

Oh sure, they’re disappointed when they lose, but they half-expect it. Now that has to be a totally ridiculous state of affairs!

I enjoyed the little bit of tongue in cheek that Ian concluded that chapter with: that you should save a 10 per cent open mind. In other words, be prepared in those rare situations to either change your mind, or at the very least to throw something in (or take it out) at the death. The famous economist John Maynard Keynes is recorded as having said that he was prepared to change his mind “when he realised he was wrong”. No problem with that, is there?

The following chapter dealt with the good old, ongoing, debates about staking: if it cannot win flat stakes it cannot win at all, progressive staking equals loss chasing, greed is the key to progressive staking, and conversely only an idiot bets at level stakes in this day and age. They are all well known and they’ll be debated about for as long as racing exists in its present format. I presented my own well-worn staking plan which I’m convinced remains the best I’ve ever seen. Sorry but I don’t regard that as immodest: I just happen to believe that it’s right. You set your bank at a hundred units and you bet either 1 per cent or 0.5 per cent of the highest point your bank reaches. That is an immutable law. You will always have a potential of a hundred losing bets in your bank, 200 if you are betting to 0.5 per cent, and if you’re on a rise then your basic level of investment will increase marginally along with the increase in the bank. If you have a better, or a more effective plan, please use it. I don’t have one.

I looked at dogs and trots briefly in the following chapter and offered a few plans which, because of the information available these days, would not really hold up against something that George Bellfield would prepare for you, and so let’s skip that.

Another of my long term fancies, the AB trifecta, got a run in the following chapter. Basically, this was to find a field where you could VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

Heidilious

reasonably limit the winning chances to two, and back them in a trifecta reversed for the first two places, AB and BA, taking the field for third.

Needless to say the average punter cannot do this every race on every afternoon, but occasions do arise in which for perhaps an outlay of $20 there is a potential $1,000 to be won.

I don’t recommend it where you’re dealing with the first two favourites, as everybody and his dog will have them in the trifecta.

Chapter 28 was a consolatory chapter, so we’ll jump ahead. It was followed by (would you believe?) a chapter on Astrology which I now a totally disown (perhaps I was short of an idea!).

Next there was a quiz. It was to do with the Melbourne Cup and needless to say (because I’m not a clairvoyant), there were no questions that related to anything after about 1990. However, here’s one that I rather liked: what is significant about 1977 as far as major cups are concerned?

I’ll tell you, one or two paragraphs down, after you’ve had a bit of time to think about that.

Then there was a money quiz, all about staking and so forth, and practically all irrelevant now because we’ve been done by the bookmakers and the TABs and their so-called “progressive metric betting markets”, in which the word price has come to mean odds. I am absolutely staggered by the number of punters today who simply don’t know the difference between the price and the odds, but you’d better believe me, it’s a fact. The price was originally, of course, the odds, but with the advent of decimal

betting and one of the greatest puntercons ever perpetrated in this country, the “price” is now represented by the figure which is really the “return”which of course it isn’t.

The uncertainty of betting odds-on and its inherent dangers came next, and even today we have people who swear by it. Not me.

The answer to that question, by the way, was that in 1977 the same two horses fought out the Sydney and Melbourne Cups, but in reverse order.

Wet tracks. Oh yes, we could write a book about this one, couldn’t we? But let’s not, at least not here.

And so to systems. I would imagine that the vast majority of readers have an interest in the fascination of the system, whether it is based on mathematics (such as the Buccaneer) where points are adjusted according to a set of rules, or on other factors or “discoveries” which will occur as racing evolves.

I love systems. You probably do too. I have a collection of somewhere between six and 10,000. Of these, it’s likely that between 80 and 90 per cent don’t work and can never work, but for all that they just might contain a grain of an idea that we can use to further our exploration of this wonderful challenge. And you never know, do you?

I then provided 10 systemettes. As a bonus, let’s do them in a separate article in this issue. And finally, I wrote half a dozen pages on last start winners and a few on my own ratings. I’ve probably written about as much as I can write on those two topics, but you never know. Anyway, that will do for now.

P.P.M.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

27

CLIVE CLIVE OF OFPPM PPM

Clive Allcock talks racing IN A BETTOR WORLD! y overseas excursion now completed I have of course not been able to do more than have a cursory understanding of the racing in my absence and have started the task of trying to catch up with the form. Much caution required based on last year’s poor performance after a similar gap away!

book just published by an Irish tipster but I didn’t buy it there (sorry, mate!) because of the fruitless rush to avoid the drenching. Still, I kept thinking about it and figured I would pick a copy easily especially in Ireland! No such luck until I landed probably the last copy in Dublin and snapped it up without further assessment.

❛ The only race of note I saw was the win of So You Think over Workforce ❜ Although I had no bets while away racing was not completely supressed by the touring (and exhausting!) experience. Indeed, in my first few hours in London I finally made it to the High Stakes bookshop pretty much as the then current copy of PPM hit the very friendly proprietor’s desk! I introduced myself and proceeded to have a short meander around the shop. Short because the afternoon had started in almost pure sunshine but as I travelled turned into a potential and then actual thunderstorm. Misled by the weather at the start I had taken no umbrella and I lost that gamble because even leaving earlier than I would have liked my return to the hotel was that of a wet bedraggled blue heeler!

Still two things locked into my thinking. This shop is one of only two purely gambling-focused that I know of in the world – the other I have also visited in Las Vegas – so they have a feel of the pulse of the balance of gambling from market demand. As I feared, horseracing is down to a relatively small section of the total market although still selling and more sports betting or casino games orientated volumes are appearing. A sign of the times.

The other item I picked up was a

28 – SEPTEMBER 2011

It proved to be a good read about which I will say more later but if you want a copy there are a number at this shop so just hit the old Google button and away you go!

I called into a small number of bookie’s shops just to smell the air but at least in England the scene was a little morbid to me. Poker machines are present – up to five a shop – and seemed to have more players than there were betters on the racing. I asked one shop what the maximum prize on them was and they didn’t even know for sure but thought it was “about 35 pounds”.

The only race of note I saw was the win of So You Think over Workforce.

I watched that at a Ladbroke’s shop in Exeter. There were three interested in the race but only two punters – I just watched. A good solid win even though I thought for a ghastly moment the he was going to get boxed in by the pacemaker from the same stable as Workforce, but once out he was too strong. So two punters but five machines with four in action including right through the race. No interest at all. A sign of the times.

But we oldies may have to catch up.

The apps world is on us and mobile betting also. One report I read

said the 34 per cent of bookmaker’s customer are now betting on these devices. Does this spell the demise of many betting shops? Will this impact on your local TAB as such styles of betting presumably also grow here?

Probably not as much as one might think if we follow their patterns as they note about 50 per cent who bet online also bet in shops and in fact most bookmaking firms are expanding their dwellings.

Even the structure of racing in England is under review with talk of a three tier system and the third (and lowest tier) would be funded at least in part by bookmaker’s money so there must still be enough betting on racing to justify this. At least some tradition still holds. As I was driven past the course for the St. Ledger I was advised that the definition of the start of winter is still “when the tail of the last horse in the St. Ledger goes past the post winter has begun”! And that, of course, heralds in mouths of jumps racing.

Enough idle pondering. The book.

Well, it is called Beat the Bookies which is a fairly predictable title to catch the eye except the writer has actually done that and publically.

Not every year but many. His name is John Duggan and he is a graduate of Trinity College in Dublin but has turned his fine mind to broadcast journalism and sports reporting.

He works through what he sees as the fundamentals derived from some periods in his early days of somewhat unorganised betting that led to his current disciplined approach. I liked his emphasis on aspects I regard as important such as record keeping, win staking, avoiding multiples (or keeping them to a minimum) and avoiding ante-post betting. Not all would agree with all points but I was in harmony with the bulk.

If you are into big race betting on British races he outlines his selection approach which has a statistical bent – e.g no seven year old has won the Grand National since 1940 so you focus on eight to 12-year-olds. The book is a good read for mine even if you do not bet on these races as you can learn from his approach.

However, he also bets on sport and most especially golf, so many majors are analysed as well. A sign of the times!

Until next month – have fun punting!

P.P.M.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

AND

CLASS ASSESSMENTS F

R

O

M

T

H

E

O

P

T

I

M

I

S

T

The following example covers the new Class and Assessments format: Horse

EREMEIN

Assess.

Sts

80

21

Lifetime Win Pl

10

17

Unp

Sts

Wet Track Win

Pl

Unp

4

3

3

3

0

Eremein has a rating of 80. His lifetime starts are 21, with 10 wins and 17 places in all. His wet track figures are three wins from three starts.

Win % Place %

47.6

81.0

Low-High

1100-2400

He has a win strike rate of 47.6 per cent and a place rate of 81 per cent. The horse’s winning distance range is 1100 metres to 2400 metres.

SELECTION APPROACHES 1. THE BEST SELECTION This is the simplest one of all. Just check the entries on any day. If one of our horses is running, and it has won at the distance (see last column), it qualifies. If more than one qualifies, our selection is the horse with the top figure.

Do not do ANY maths. The TOP figure is our selection assessed highest for the distance.

Example: Beaux Art is 62. It qualifies in a 2400m race, but so does Circles Of Gold who is assessed at 61.5; so our selection is Beaux Art who has the higher figure.

2. THE BEST NETT SELECTION This is the tried and true Optimist method. Check the form to see if it has won at the distance of today’s race.

Allow 200m either way up to 1600m, then allow 400m from 1601m to 2500m. Above 2500m the horse must have won at 2400m or more. Then check the weights they are carrying AFTER any allowances, etc.

Example: Beaux Art has 57kg. We deduct this from 62 and end up with 5.

Circles Of Gold has 55kg. Deduct this from 61.5, total 6.5.

This time Circles Of Gold is our tip, as she has a higher nett total than Beaux Art. Usually this will produce a more accurate guide to the race’s likely outcome, but on the

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

other hand, when the best horse wins, regardless of the weights, the price is often excellent.

3. THE LONGSHOT PLAN This one is for those who can be patient and is our special plan, devised over a long period. (a) The horse must be listed here (of course…). (b) The horse must have placed first, or second, or third, at all four of its past four starts (these must not be punctuated by a spell). (c) The horse must be racing within its winning distance range.

Some of the selections will be short, but the majority will be at very acceptable odds.

100 POINTS STAKING PLAN Start with a series of 10 one-unit bets. If at the end of that series there is a profit, revert to the first bet. If not, the next 10 bets are at two units each. If a profit is now shown overall, revert to the very first bet. If not, place a series of 10 three-unit bets, then if no overall profit, make a series of 10 four-unit bets. Whether or not a profit then exists, revert to the very start after the fortieth bet.

Calculate any changes at the end of each day’s racing, so all bets for any day are of the same value.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

29

NAME

ASSESS.

AVENUE 78 BASIL DA MAN 78 BEADED 86 BEYOND PARDON 74 BLACK CAVIAR 110 BRAZILIAN PULSE 88 BUFFERING 81 CAT’S PYJAMAS 80 CATAPULTED 83 CEDARBERG 80 CENTENNIAL PARK 83 CURTANA 82 DANCE WITH HER 79 DANCES ON WAVES 84 DANLEIGH 88 DESCARADO 89 DEVILS ARCADE 80 DIVYA 80 DO RA MI 82 DUBLEANNY 83 ECLAIR FLYER 80 ECLAIR MYSTIC 81 ECLAIR SURPRISE 79 ELUSIVE TOUCH 84 FAST CLIP 79 FIRST COMMAND 77 FIRST LOOK 79 FOXSTAR 78 GAIL 75 GYBE 78 HAY LIST 98 HEART OF DREAMS 88 HEIDILICIOUS 87 HIDDEN WONDER 86 HOOD 81 HURTLE MYRTLE 83 ILOVETHISCITY 90 IRONSTEIN 83 KONTIKI PARK 79 LADY LYNETTE 80 LADYS ANGEL 81 LAUNAY 82 LINTON 86 LOVE CONQUERS ALL 88 LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 81 MALUCKYDAY 89 METAL BENDER 91 MID SUMMER MUSIC 86 MIKIYAMA 77

30 – SEPTEMBER 2011

LIFETIME RECORD STARTS WINS PLACE 20 5 19 23 13 10 15 9 22 16 38 10 23 12 43 14 12 7 9 16 7 10 5 11 11 17 25 12 11 8 20 26 7 52 14 15 13 26 18 37 13 16 13 18 14 12 19 11 6

8 4 9 4 13 5 7 4 10 4 8 5 6 5 8 2 5 2 3 9 3 6 2 4 5 8 5 4 4 2 14 6 2 9 4 3 4 6 4 11 5 6 3 6 6 5 8 7 3

11 4 18 17 13 9 12 7 14 8 17 7 13 6 22 7 7 6 5 12 5 9 2 9 8 11 10 10 9 5 18 16 5 24 7 8 7 14 12 25 9 12 9 12 9 9 11 9 5

UNP 9 1 1 6 0 1 3 2 8 8 21 3 10 6 21 7 5 1 4 4 2 1 3 2 3 6 15 2 2 3 2 10 2 28 7 7 6 12 6 12 4 4 4 6 5 3 8 2 1

WET TRACK RECORD STARTS WINS PLACE 5 0 3 8 0 4 3 1 3 4 14 4 12 2 12 4 5 2 4 4 1 0 0 3 4 3 11 2 3 3 3 5 0 13 6 3 3 5 5 6 5 2 2 6 1 3 5 5 3

2 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 4 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 0 3 0 0 2 4 2

2 0 3 5 0 3 3 0 1 1 6 2 9 0 7 3 2 2 1 3 1 0 0 3 2 1 4 2 2 3 3 3 0 7 3 3 1 3 2 5 5 2 1 5 0 2 3 5 2

UNP 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 3 8 2 3 2 5 1 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 7 0 1 0 0 2 0 6 3 0 2 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1

WIN PLACE per cent per cent 40.0 80.0 47.4 17.4 100.0 50.0 46.7 44.4 45.5 25.0 21.1 50.0 26.1 41.7 18.6 14.3 41.7 28.6 33.3 56.3 42.9 60.0 40.0 36.4 45.5 47.1 20.0 33.3 36.4 25.0 70.0 23.1 28.6 17.3 28.6 20.0 30.8 23.1 22.2 29.7 38.5 37.5 23.1 33.3 42.9 41.7 42.1 63.6 50.0

55.0 80.0 94.7 73.9 100.0 90.0 80.0 77.8 63.6 50.0 44.7 70.0 56.5 50.0 51.2 50.0 58.3 85.7 55.6 75.0 71.4 90.0 40.0 81.8 72.7 64.7 40.0 83.3 81.8 62.5 90.0 61.5 71.4 46.2 50.0 53.3 53.8 53.8 66.7 67.6 69.2 75.0 69.2 66.7 64.3 75.0 57.9 81.8 83.3

WINNING DISTANCE

SHORT DIST. – LONG DIST.

1100-1300 1000-1050 1100-1350 1010-1600 1000-1200 1200-2500 1000-1200 1100-1200 1100-1300 1520-2400 1200-1400 1000-1200 1400-2040 1200-1600 1200-1600 1900-2400 1200-1800 1200-1350 1170-1400 1100-1200 955-1000 1000-1400 1300-1800 1100-1200 1100-2000 1000-1200 1200-1500 1200-1600 1400-1620 1000-1300 1000-1400 1800-1800 1600-1600 1550-1800 1100-1300 1200-1400 1150-1600 1550-2400 1400-1600 1200-1600 1100-1500 1200-1600 1400-2400 1100-1200 1400-2100 1400-2500 1400-2020 1100-1300 1550-2200

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

NAME MILITARY GAL MIRJULISA LASS MISS OCTOPUSSY MORE JOYOUS MYTHICAL SPIRIT NEESON OFCOURSEICAN ONCE WERE WILD PHILDA PIMPALA SECRET PINKER PINKER PINWHEEL PITT STREET PURENESS RANGIRANGDOO REDHANDEDJILL RETURNTOSENDER REUBEN PERCIVAL SACRED CHOICE SCARLETT LADY SCARF SCREEN SET FOR FAME SHAMROCKER SHOOT OUT SHOOTOFF SINCERO SOUL TAMPIKO THANKGODYOU’REHERE THE VERMINATOR TOORAK TOFF TRIM TRIPLE ELEGANCE TROMSO TULLAMORE TURNITUP VALENTINE MISS VIVID VIXEN VOICE COMMANDER WARM LOVE WARPATH WELL HANDLED WHOBEGOTYOU WILLY JIMMY YOSEI YULALONA ZEDI KNIGHT ZINGALING

ASSESS. 79 83 76 95 75 84 83 89 80 83 89 91 81 77 94 75 74 79 88 92 80 82 79 90 89 90 92 82 77 83 80 85 74 87 80 82 85 75 83 80 81 75 75 93 77 88 81 79 79

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

LIFETIME RECORD STARTS WINS PLACE 15 17 17 19 12 17 20 19 35 11 11 21 11 11 21 7 25 6 31 10 9 17 17 13 91 17 13 9 10 14 17 12 16 19 17 11 14 27 18 43 12 21 19 26 25 14 12 28 16

3 5 5 14 4 7 6 7 11 5 4 8 4 5 10 4 5 1 9 6 5 6 5 4 14 4 9 2 5 7 4 5 2 7 4 4 3 6 8 13 5 9 4 9 7 3 4 10 3

4 9 12 15 6 12 12 9 23 7 6 18 7 8 19 6 14 3 19 8 6 9 9 4 31 6 10 5 7 12 11 6 7 15 10 9 10 16 14 22 9 13 10 22 12 5 7 18 11

UNP 11 8 5 4 6 5 8 10 12 4 5 3 4 3 2 1 11 3 12 2 3 8 8 4 60 11 3 4 3 2 6 6 9 4 7 2 4 11 4 21 3 8 9 4 13 9 5 10 5

WET TRACK RECORD STARTS WINS PLACE 8 6 1 6 2 4 6 3 21 3 4 1 4 4 7 0 5 3 8 2 1 5 5 5 16 6 2 4 1 3 2 1 2 7 3 1 1 2 5 6 3 7 7 4 4 4 5 4 6

3 0 0 4 0 3 1 0 8 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 3 2 1 0 1 0 4 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 2

3 1 0 4 0 4 3 0 16 2 3 1 0 3 6 0 3 1 4 0 1 2 2 2 7 2 1 4 1 2 1 1 2 4 0 1 1 1 4 2 1 5 2 3 1 1 3 3 5

UNP 5 5 1 2 2 0 3 3 5 1 1 0 4 1 1 0 2 2 4 0 0 3 3 3 9 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 3 0 0 1 1 4 2 2 5 1 3 3 2 1 1

WIN PLACE per cent per cent 20.0 29.4 29.4 73.7 33.3 41.2 30.0 36.8 31.4 45.5 36.4 38.1 36.4 45.5 47.6 57.1 20.0 16.7 29.0 60.0 55.6 35.3 29.4 30.7 15.4 23.5 69.2 22.2 50.0 50.0 23.5 41.7 12.5 36.8 23.5 36.4 21.4 22.2 44.4 30.2 41.7 42.9 21.1 34.6 28.0 21.4 33.3 35.7 18.8

26.7 52.9 70.6 78.9 50.0 70.6 60.0 47.4 65.7 63.6 54.5 85.7 63.6 72.7 90.5 85.7 56.0 50.0 61.3 80.0 66.7 52.9 52.9 61.4 34.1 35.3 76.9 55.6 70.0 85.7 64.7 50.0 43.8 78.9 58.8 81.8 71.4 59.3 77.8 51.2 75.0 61.9 52.6 84.6 48.0 35.7 58.3 64.3 68.8

WINNING DISTANCE

SHORT DIST. – LONG DIST.

1100-1150 1300-2000 1000-1200 1100-1600 1200-1212 1200-1400 1000-1250 1300-2600 1200-1600 1000-1400 1100-1600 1100-1200 1300-1600 1200-1500 1200-1600 950-1200 1400-1600 3200-3200 1300-1600 1400-2400 1200-1600 1000-1400 1100-1400 1400-2400 1200-2400 1550-2400 1100-1600 1000-1200 1200-1600 1100-1600 1550-2400 1100-1400 1200-1200 1200-1550 1100-1500 2200-2400 1400-2200 1200-1200 1500-2004 1200-2000 1000-1100 1200-1900 1600-2200 1600-2000 1400-1600 1106-1600 1300-2000 1200-1440 1200-1200

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

31

BY MICHAEL KEMP

SCENE

SYDNEY n what’s been a staggering rise to prominence, and then to top position, recently arrived Chris Waller has now established himself very firmly right at the top of the Sydney trainers’ premiership. To some extent, at least until probably the last six months or so, Chris was still relatively unknown by the vast rank and file of racegoers and punters. He then established a marvellous run of wins at every Rosehill meeting, and for quite a while you can throw in any Sydney race meeting as well.

Chris Waller completed the Sydney premiership season with 117 wins, including four winners on the final Saturday, just to make his point. The amazing thing was that these horses were not unbackable. The winner of the first race was available at one stage of the final betting at $11, firming in to $9. That pushed him to the front of the pile state wide, and so far as Sydney was concerned, it left his nearest rivals Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse way, way behind on eminently respectable 89.5 and 81.5 wins respectively. Joseph Pride finished in the fifties, John O’Shea in the forties, David Payne in the thirties along with Bart Cummings just behind him, and Bart’s son Anthony three behind him. Gerald Ryan and Guy Walter were close up.

As far as the whole state was concerned, Waller, Snowden, Waterhouse, Walter and Kris Lees held the top five spots. I was speaking to a punter at Rosehill on July 30th, and he made I thought a very interesting point, that he has ceased considering horses from outside these major stables because there’s not much room, percentagewise, for anything else to be a strong chance. He made the additional remark that the top riders are usually locked into these stables, or if they are not you can be pretty sure that the stables’ representatives will be seeking them out whenever their contracted top rider is, for one reason

32 – SEPTEMBER 2011

or another, unavailable. In many cases of course this is because the top rider is already engaged for a stable horse in the race. It should be remembered that these stables are, generally speaking, quite large and it’s not any surprise these days to see two, three or even four final acceptances from the one stable, especially in a major race.

Incidentally, I think the days have also gone when we could get a bit dirty on “the wrong stable horse” taking out a major event. This used to be the case and it quite often looked to have justification behind it. However, let’s recognise what we’ve just pointed out above and that sometimes, indeed frequently, there will only be one or two suitable major races in a carnival for a trainer who has three or four eminently suitable horses to place.

I think the bottom line here is that quite often the trainer will honestly not know which of his or her horses is likely to win. All he can do is present them at the racetrack, on the day, as

Chris Waller

fit and as well-prepared as he possibly can, and he will have engaged the very best available jockeys for each of his horses. In some cases this can even mean that he continues to use a particular rider on the horse most favoured in the market, because that rider has proved successful with that horse (in other words they work as a combination – it may be a question of weight carried, or simply an understanding between horse and jockey). But with this decision comes a further decision to place, perhaps, his stable’s leading jockey on a horse which is not as high up in the market.

This can prove quite tricky for any punter, especially if the punter has a specific interest in that stable. He might be tempted to ask questions which have no answer, simply because, when you analyse the situation, there isn’t even a question!

Putting it another way, after a decision has been made about the rider of the favoured animal, the stable’s number one jockey will probably ride the next most popular in the market. But that’s not necessarily true either, because it can happen that the stable’s number one jockey is not able to ride at the particular set weight. Or it could be that a claim of anything up to 3 kg is seen as enormously significant for the particular horse because of any number of reasons.

These points above make Sydney premiership winner Nash Rawiller’s success even more impressive.

The Waterhouse stable cannot put Nash Rawiller on a horse which is on the limit weight, so one of the challenges for the punter is to work out just what this rider is worth in terms of natural advantage to a horse which possibly is not absolutely equal to one of the other entered stable horses. Not easy is it?

BEST OF THE YEAR Overseas, as I write this, all sorts of opinions are being aired as to the greatest current horses and how VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

they fit into the overall greatness scale. Frankel is being talked about as belonging among the immortals, but when they are beating three horses in fairly pedestrian style, you have to reserve judgement, especially from so far away. As far as our state was concerned, a long way from England or for that matter most other places, Black Caviar was obviously the thrill of the season and the weather was kind (a very rare and singular thing during the carnival). So much has been written about her I’m not going to add anything here: I can’t think of any way of topping the praise and adulation that’s been heaped on this beautiful mare.

So You Think is being scheduled to come back here for a third crack at the Cox Plate but that’s in the lap of the gods at present. We didn’t see him here and, while I can see the reasons behind shipping him to the northern hemisphere, I have this feeling that they’ll never see what we saw. One thing that did come to my eye was the list of all time rankings.

The unarguably immortal Sea Bird tops the all time list on 145. That probably surprises nobody, although again when you’re dealing with points and opinions, and you realise that a couple of points can make a hell of a lot of difference, you have to be very rational about the whole thing. It was gratifying to see that the first great horse I remember people raving about in my childhood, Tulloch, was well up the list.

However, I do know that The Optimist has been turning cartwheels

for the past few weeks upon discovering that the horse he has trumpeted for many years as the greatest horse he ever saw, and has had to defend his opinion against virtually everybody south of the equator, is listed as second in the all time ratings and only one point behind the great Sea Bird. You can’t have read good old T.O. for very long and not been treated to at least a passing observation about this horse.

His name was Brigadier Gerard. The Optimist never tires of telling me about the demolition job (one of his best-known terms) that this horse did on the incredibly gifted Mill Reef during the years he was in England.

In fact, this horse only went under once in his entire career, and that was when his owner/trainer/breeder John Hislop kept the faith with the Brigadier’s adoring fans and started him, giving a huge amount of weight, against one of the best (and younger) derby winners of the decade, on a track which T.O. tells me could not stage a race meeting here. You can read all about this great animal in a marvellous book, The Brigadier, published by Secker and Warburg towards the end of the seventies. I’m not sure you can get it now, but you might pick it up through Amazon.

“BESTESTS” We’ve been into “bestests” (in other words, who’s the best) this month, and it’s been all over the newspapers.

Some of the issues and opinions don’t need repeating and many of them were only that, opinion. Some of them were personal, such as who’s

the best race caller and which is the better racing television station. The only comment I would make there is that a certain commercial station, when it gets hold of the major races, is far and away the worst I’ve ever seen anywhere, but that’s another story for another day.

A question that did take my interest was the one about stewards’ penalties.

I think we do have a problem here, in that there is an inconsistency between states. Let me put it this way.

If I win a race and there’s a protest, I would much rather have the protest heard in Melbourne than in Sydney.

Conversely, if I am on the runnerup, I would infinitely prefer to be in Sydney. This isn’t an emotional comment or a particularly personal one, it’s what I have observed over a period of decades. I watched two protests in Melbourne very closely in the past few weeks and I was on the winner in both of them. To be ruthlessly honest I hoped I would keep these races (one was a midweek Melbourne race and I had backed the winner at double figures), but with the money safely banked after both protests were dismissed, I’m prepared to admit that I was lucky beyond belief. I don’t believe either horse should have retained its race and I believe that in each case the protest was totally justified and should have been upheld.

If those protests had taken place in Sydney I reckon I’d have been down the gurgler. Perhaps you have some thoughts on this subject that you can email Brian for his letters page.

P.P.M.

YOUR OCTOBER 2011 PPM It’s Caulfield Cup time again – and doesn’t it seem to rush around each year! As usual, the PPM team has the big race well and truly covered. The October magazine will be a Caulfield Cup Special Issue, with our leading writers handing out their advance selections. Don’t miss this great coverage. Also in the October issue: BIG SIX AND THE QUADRELLA: We’re taking a long look at both these betting formats and our writers, Jon Hudson and Richard Hartley Jnr, have got together to discuss all aspects, from selection to staking. Let’s shoot for those BIG divvies!

SECRETS OF THE FORM CYCLE: Rick Roberts claims that following the form cycle of horses on the upgrade shows terrific results. He presents a betting plan that zeroes in on horses in top winning condition.

THE 1000M MASTER PLAN: Here’s a system that’s restricted to races over 1000m.

Denton Jardine explains how it works and how it was developed. If you want a system that sticks to ONE set of races, and has a big strike rate, then this is the one you want.

KEMP’S BEST AERONAUTICAL Very promising youngster by Encosta De Lago out of Moon Fever, put a reasonable field to the sword at Randwick on a soft surface early in August.

It was a huge win, very easy, very impressive.

WINTER KING Has contested several top races and is always around the place without winning. Just missed against boom sprinter Rain Affair, suggesting he can still win a nice race, and soon.

DON’T MISS THE CAULFIELD CUP SPECIAL ISSUE – OCTOBER PPM! VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

33

figured that we already have a contribution by yours truly of 10 systemettes, and that anything more in the actual straight mathematical line would be a bit of overkill. So instead, it’s time for

An example of an essential ingredient, to my mind, is some aspect of the actual horse contesting the race. For example, it may be that you’re looking at the comparative form tables of the various contestants

❛ What in your opinion are the essential ingredients of a good system? ❜ one of our “around the fireside” discussions, where we gnaw away at the bone of an issue and see what we come up with. Well, actually, I call it a discussion, but I guess it’s just me putting forward the ideas and trusting that you will, in your own good time, take a serious look at what I’m postulating. Needless to say, the final opinion is your own, and we’ll have quite a bit to say about opinion just down the page a bit.

What in your opinion are the essential ingredients of a good system? I’ve often tackled this issue over the months and years, and I’m pretty confident in my own mind that there are certain criteria we should always respect, and others which are sometimes relatively very important and sometimes not so important, even inconsequential.

in the event. Or it may be that you’re looking at the rider performance, particularly in terms of sustained proven ability.

There again, you might be looking at the market. This can occur from many points of view, and it may not be that the favourites are a major criterion; it could in fact be quite the reverse, and I’ve seen some good systems that reject the selection of favourites. One of the chief arguments which swings either way in this matter is the percentage question. It’s true that, year in and year out, favourites will win (roughly speaking) one race in three. That can vary, in my experience, according to venue and particularly according to the size of the actual race programs that are being taken into account.

For example, Sydney or Melbourne

✔ ✔ FREE

Valued at $200

BIG The

BRE

AK

127% Profit

Big Break Phone Selection Service

34 – SEPTEMBER 2011

metropolitan meetings are generally speaking very closely contested programs. If they weren’t, then the whole fabric of racing would fall apart because I’d be giving you eight winners on every metropolitan program and (unfortunately) there wouldn’t be a bookmaker alive who was prepared to take your bet, no matter what the odds. In fact, come to think of it, there wouldn’t be bookmakers any more. Or TABs. The essence of the whole thing is that it comes down to chance and opinion. These two major factors form the markets, every market in fact. You might say that opinion is based on chance, and therefore they’re the same thing, however I would argue, from a long term punter’s point of view, that my only means of survival is to have an opinion base which will be better than the market’s opinion base, on enough occasions to show regular profits. Going back for a moment to that observation that a good system doesn’t necessarily depend on the 33 per cent virtual guarantee of favourite wins: I’m not averse to backing the favourite, and I must have done so on hundreds, if not thousands, of occasions. I don’t particularly like backing favourites because most of the time the very fact that the horse is favourite in the first place suggests that the bookmakers will play on the “opinions” of the majority. If they can get away with it then they won’t offer what they know full well is a reasonable or fair price. Ironically, where the wrong horse is only running as favourite because the bulk of opinion has put it there, you’ll probably get lower prices than you should about the horse or horses which should be favourite.

This might sound a bit weird but the bookmakers know that this favourite isn’t the logical favourite qualifier and they are well aware that there

✔ FREE Guaranteed ✔savings over $325 85

SINCE 19

Yearly Subscription to PPM

SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

will be a percentage of punters, more astute than the majority, who will be quietly waiting for the opportunity to hit the “right horse” at juicy odds.

It isn’t easy, is it? I enjoy homing in on a race where I believe the wrong horse has been made favourite. You see, there still can be opportunity amongst the other horses to pick out a couple that are anomalies. In its way, this is a system, or at least the start of one. Again this comes down to opinion, and my final and ultimate opinion can be as much based on the mathematical opportunity as it might be on the raw “in order” or sequential chances. It’s not a game for the chicken hearted, and there are going to be lots of times when I’ll be wrong and either the majority, or the astute minority, will be successful. I don’t like losing any more than you do, but I know one thing for sure: I’m going to lose more races than I win. The trick is to maintain a good winning percentage which returns a good overall percentage profit.

I’m not going to drive you mad by yet again pulling out my 1 per cent staking plan, but I think that, more than any other factor in my racing, it’s what’s kept me totally targeted.

As far as my investments go, I tend to group them together these days. For about the first 30 or so years of my racing investment career, I religiously separated the various kinds of bets, but I think I’m past that now. Mere opinion, I guess.

You see, I know what I should and shouldn’t be doing whenever I make any kind of bet, and if I make it in the full knowledge that it’s part of my singular overall strategy (which is to make money!), I don’t have to cross reference anything. It’s all there.

If it’s part of a system, so be it. If it’s a multiple, so be it. If it’s a win only or an each way, or a staggered bet (for example, 75 per cent to win and 25 per cent to place on a $13 chance, meaning that my 25 per cent for the place will return my full stake), it is made with more years of experience behind me than I care to think about.

Anyway, the great Bill Whittaker never tired of stressing that opinion was the backbone of racing. He was right, of course. It may seem perfectly obvious to you when you read it here, but I hope you don’t just put it to one side after you’ve finished with this article. It’s totally vital to understanding how things work.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

When you get the nonsense that’s pushed at you on both television stations in the final minutes prior to every major race, what you’re getting is opinion. You know, I think that I’d even be less frustrated and unimpressed by the garbage served up, if it were merely a reflection of serious opinion. However, over the years, no one that can do anything about it ever seems to have challenged stupid comments such as “they’re backing” and “shrewd judges think”. Even worse is the so-called late mail, which has been generated into personal opinion and regurgitation: it rarely represents what could honestly be called the strongest punter opinion (this opinion will be reflected directly in the market).

We live with “reports” from our man or woman on the track, in many cases without knowing who the heck they are and, in the case of some minor tracks, never having heard their names before. Heaven alone knows what Fred Bloggs, who makes the tips and gives the “late mail” at Woop Woop Dogs has as his qualifications. The trouble is, it doesn’t stop with our friend Fred.

A huge amount of the last minute “information” from major meetings can be nothing more than the opinion of an individual. Perhaps this person has had a quick look at the horses in the parade ring, perhaps he’s had a look at the progress of the betting markets. That’s anybody’s guess:

you don’t know, and I certainly don’t know. Rest assured that whatever you’re served up will now be under the odds, as every sheep and lemming in town is on board.

I guess I got a little bit off the track with the specifics associated with system devising, but with any luck I might have focused you in the right direction. Opinion is a wonderful friend, but you need to have confidence in yours. If you haven’t, and you desperately accept somebody elses, you’re probably doomed. I’ll tell you something else for nothing.

After a losing effort, all the tipsters will go on to the next race without a backward look. Not even a shrug of the shoulders. Meanwhile, you might have done your dough. Nasty thought, that.

What are YOUR basic criteria? If you can’t answer that, we have a problem.

P.P.M.

Check out the latest from The Optimist with On The Punt and Q & A at practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

35

t this time of the year in Brisbane racing it is usually when various awards are made.

It is also the time when there are new additions to our Hall of Fame. It was good to see that a couple of famous racing families were nominated this year. But it got me thinking about how sad it is that great racing dynasties in Brisbane have virtually disappeared.

I don’t know about other states but racing here for many years was dominated by various families – the Strongs, Andersons, Sinclairs, Conquests, Tuckers, etc. A perfect example is the Strongs and if ever a family should be nominated for an award as a family it is them.

Athol Strong was the doyen who originally came from the Northern Rivers to settle in Brisbane in the mid1940s. He was among the first to realise the value of importing horses from New Zealand and trained hundreds of winners but it would have been far more had he not on sold many of his best horses. He was the original ownertrainer of the champion miler Toi Port, who won two Epsoms, which he sold to Jack Parr. Athol won a Brisbane premiership and his son Neil was the youngest ever to win a metropolitan premiership at just 21 years in 1961.

Like his father, Neil sold many of his best horses but he still had a string of top horses and went 35 years training at least one two-year-old metropolitan winner a season. Another of Athol’s sons in Daryl was also a top trainer with his best horse the Doomben 10,000 winner Blues Finitio. Neil’s son Peter carried on the name with top horses such as Affirmed Star and Do You Remember. At the same time the Best family headed by Fred Best was

36 – SEPTEMBER 2011

also very powerful. Fred’s son Noel was a tip top rider and also won a trainers premiership.

The Tucker family had an enormous influence on Queensland racing for six decades. One of the greatest horsemen seen in Queensland, Bill Tucker (known as Old Bill) had a large family.

His son E “Georgie” Tucker was a top jockey while his other sons included trainers W.A. Tucker and A.E. Tucker.

W. A. Tucker trained the star gallopers of the 1930s, Real Flyer, Spearvale, Six Fifty and Seven Fifty. As a jockey Bill Tucker rode hundreds of winners but as a trainer he will always be remembered because of his great strike rate in staying races. In fact he won 11 3200m (two mile races) in Brisbane.

His best horse was Spear Chief who won two Brisbane Cups and scored a huge upset in the Rawson Stakes in 1939. Spear Chief started 33-1 when he beat Ajax who was a 1-40 chances. It is still the biggest upet in Australian turf history. George Anderson was Brisbane’s premier trainer in the 1940s with his son Jim later Brisbane’s No. 1 racing writer. Likewise Bart Sinclair was a tip top trainer with his son Bart Jnr the current leading racing writer in Brisbane. Norman Conquest and his son Ron won a stack of Group races in the 1950s while Ron’s son Philip was a leading apprentice.

I have taken a bit of space to explain how important the big racing families were to Brisbane. They virtually generated an industry within an industry in various fields of racing.

We currently have some sons carrying on the father’s work and none more so than Jason McLachlan whose father Bruce dominated racing here for three decades. However, a lot of the old

names have dropped out of the sport here. I think it is a prime example of how we have lost a generation of racegoers from our industry. Many of the big name families still have an interest in racing but have found work in other fields.

It is one thing football codes seem to have overcome by keeping generation after generation involved in their sport.

It is probably just a symptom of the changing face of racing but it would be a pity to see all those names disappear from our racing scene. Let’s hope we can keep the current crop and that they can develop dynasties of their own.

CHRIS THE GREAT IT would be remiss of me not to pay tribute to the Brisbane premiership winners last season in jockey Chris Munce and trainer Rob Heathcote.

Munce has overcome well documented problems to return to Brisbane and dominate our racing. To top it off he added another Group 1 to his list in the Caulfield Cup. He is the jockey to follow again this season and if things go his way he could well reach the magic 100 winners mark in Brisbane. No jockey has ridden 100 metropolitan winners in a year in Brisbane. Heathcote has now won three metropolitan premierships in just 15 years of training. It is an outstanding effort. He will fly the Queensland flag in Melbourne and Sydney this spring and hopefully get his first Group 1 winner.

P.P.M.

WAYNE’S BEST WOORIM: Could easily be the best of the Queensland horses in Melbourne this spring. He is one to follow in races from 1200m to 1600, especially where the pace will be on.

KORANOVSKY: Smart mare on her day who can race on the pace or back in the field. Brisbane racing isn’t strong at this time of the year and she can easily win a couple of races.

HEART TO FEAR: Smart mare on her day but has had some problems.

This campaign could be the one where she works through the classes.

FELONY FLIGHT: Good midweek winner recently and on that effort should be able to win a Saturday race this campaign.

THE INVENTOR: Nicely bred galloper gelding who might be one to follow when his races get longer.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

n this article, Richard Hartley Jnr takes a look at various selection and betting strategies advocated by well-known racing analysts around the world.

(1) Let’s kick off this article, with some views from George Kaywood, the man who put together the first book on horseracing websites back in the 1990s.

He says: In the mid-80s, a popular handicapping guru advocated betting two horses per race to win, depending on the odds, as the wagering part of the overall handicapping strategy. The profitability of this approach has been slammed by other racing luminaries again and again, using studies to prove that betting one horse to win is the most profitable approach in the long run.

And they’re right – for handicappers proficient enough to maintain about a 20 per cent winning percentage at minimally acceptable odds to show a long-term profit.

But what about the recreational player? These players – ones who play on weekends and maybe one other day a week-who silently want to make a big score but who really are happy to go home with more than they took to the races – because of their approach, do not consistently use a structured wagering program.

Let’s say you’re a casual player who considers himself better than a beginner but less than an expert. Like many other players, in small fields

you can narrow the winner down to two contenders, but find yourself zigging and zagging when it comes to nailing the winner consistently. If you can narrow the competition in short fields down to two regularly, is a profit of about 20 per cent acceptable?

Try this approach – but try it on paper first – and see if it will satisfy your desire to cash tickets and go home a winner: 1. Play is restricted to fields of between six-eight horses. We want to restrict the number of possibilities to increase the chances of your having the winner.

2. Using your preferred handicapping style, narrow down the field to your two top contenders. Be honest with yourself – if you can’t narrow it down to only two horses, it’s best to pass.

3. The minimum odds on the lower odds horse must not be lower than 7/5. At 7/5, a $2 bet on two horses will return 4.80, which is a 20 per cent profit. “Risk $4 to make 80 cents?” I hear you asking.

The logic is that if you win, you make at least a 20 per cent profit, and your higher-odds selections will come in often enough so that your profit will exceed 20 per cent and return some decent money.

Besides, for many people who invested in the stock market or even a mutual fund they thought was a safe

investment over the last two years, 20 percent profit seems astronomical!

Let’s say one of your two selections is in fact 7/5, and the other is 3/1.

The higher odds horse wins. Your $4 investment returns 8.00 for a 100 per cent return: $4 profit on a $4 investment.

4. If one of your horses goes off at 6/5, no play.

Obviously, this is not a sophisticated approach. But it is useful for the casual player, beginning handicappers who have enough to contend with in picking logical contenders, much less develop and utilise a wagering strategy, and for the more experienced player in a down cycle who wants action, handicapping exercise, and a stress-free day at the races.

(2) Gordon Pine (Netcapper.com) has some interesting things to say about how betting on horseracing can have many things in common with stock market speculation.

He says: Studying stock speculation (which lately seems like a more accurate term than investing) has reaped lessons about my favourite form of institutionalised risk: horserace speculation. For instance, David Dremen, in his book, Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation, talked about the effect of surprises on different types of stocks.

He compared the 20 per cent most-

• Continued next page

Next Month – our Caufield Cup special VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

37

favoured stocks, those with high P/E ratios and lots of stock analyst attention, to the 20 per cent leastfavoured stocks, those with low P/ Es and apparently dim prospects.

He analysed how both positive and negative surprises affected the stock prices of these groups over time.

To cut to the chase, the bottom line was this: Favoured companies had little positive reaction to positive surprises and a very negative reaction to negative surprises. Unfavoured companies had a very positive reaction to positive surprises and very little reaction to negative surprises. It makes sense – a favoured company is supposed to perform well, and its price reflects that. Any negative news is like a bug in your soup at a fancy restaurant: a quick perception-change may take place regarding the former attractions of said hash house. On the other hand, negative news for an unfavoured company is taken in stride because nobody expects much from the pig. But a positive surprise can really make that pig fly.

Horse race betting isn’t always analogous to stock-market betting, but this situation does remind me of the track. Surprises, both negative and positive, happen all day, every day, around the oval. Always look out for negative surprises with favourites and positive surprises with longshots.

When you’re looking at a favourite, keep an eye out for any drawbacks.

Be suspicious and if you even smell the hint of a serious negative on a favorite, get off it.

Longshots, however, often only need one positive sign to make them a good bet. A terrible-looking horse who’s switching to a better jockey for no apparent reason, a slow-poke who suddenly showed early speed last race, a horse who usually works at an average level who suddenly posts a bullet work, a horse who repeats the situation of his last win even though it was nine races back, and so on, these are the types of longshots that can generate positive surprises.

So, when you handicap, be on the lookout for surprises: negative

38 – SEPTEMBER 2011

surprises with favourites and positive surprises with longshots. It may help you cut your losses and increase your payoffs in a surprising manner.

(3) Steve Zacks believes in punters keeping close tabs on how their year has gone.

He says: All players have good years and even some lean ones. Even long-time successful and winning players go through losing streaks or losing periods. One of the things that make them winning players in the long run is their willingness to stand back and examine just what has transpired. They do not tell false tales to themselves; they go looking for the

improvement next year. Some honest answers to several questions will tell you if any applies to your game.

Over the years I have found that the answers to the following three questions go a long way to finding out just what has been going on and pointing me in the right direction in search of solutions. You have to be able to honestly answer the questions in an informed manner for the process to be truly meaningful.

QUESTION #1: Did you make any fundamental changes to your own play, either by design or accidentally?

QUESTION #2: Is there any fundamental change in the game

whole truth! For only when they are completely honest, do they discover the true reasons for their success or failure. From this starting point they can and do make the necessary adjustments to their game plan.

Hopefully, you keep some kind of records. That is the best, if not only, way to track precisely what has been going on and the best way to learn whether changes in your own performance are due to either intentional or inadvertent alterations of your game plan. Another influence is a change in the external circumstances: a period of extreme weather or these days, the switch from turf to artificial surfaces! Either way, the simple recognition of the root cause of the problem is very often the first step in the turnaround.

A break in routine may prove beneficial; so too might a look back with an eye to the future. Whether you have had a great year, or a poor one, this process of self-examination with an open mind can always lead to

which is causing your results to change?

QUESTION #3: Are your horses running as well as anticipated but you are not profiting? Does your betting profile fit with your handicapping skills?

My game is tailored to finding overlay longer-priced winners. I get my share and do okay, though I am not yet ready to retire to a Polynesian Island. I often have long losing streaks and more frustratingly many streaks where there are few winners and numerous seconds and thirds paying generous prices behind. This is the nature of the game I play and most of the time I deal with it just fine, though I experienced a very frustrating two hours last week when four out of five $10 win selections placed with returns of $50 and $30, $25 and $12, $20 and $10, and $24 and $11. And of course the fifth one failed to win, leaving me with a $50 loss. Playing the game I do, I know that there are just too many horses VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

money. Can we accept that? If we can’t accept the fact that someone, anyone, is winning, then why would we think that we can win? And, if that is the case, we need to ask ourselves, “Why are we playing this game?”

I will assume, at this point, that you have mustered sufficient belief to accept the following statements as true: • “I believe that there are winners out there.”

• “I believe that some of them win large money at the races.”

• “I believe that I am capable of winning large.”

If you can’t buy into this, then you should do one of three things: 1. Find a way to reach this level of belief.

2. Give up wagering.

3. Learn to view racing as a losing proposition.

Okay, so we believe that we can win but the question is, “How do we do it?” The logical place to start is to model the winners and do what they do.

This is where the problems usually start. Someone tells or shows us how he does it. We watch for an hour or two. Maybe we even watch for a couple of days. They make it seem so easy. Then we go to the races ourselves and same result as before.

No joy.

This is when the doubt creeps back in . . . “You know, it was only a twohour seminar. I don’t really know that he wins at all. After all, if he is a winner, why would he give his secrets away for just a few dollars? I know I wouldn’t do that.”

You must chase that demon away and accept the real truth . . . He wins with that approach and you don’t!

(Remember if it looks like a duck . . .)

If anything positive is to come from this experience it will come from asking the right questions.

For example, is there something I am doing differently? Well, of course there is! “He’s betting better horses than I am.”

Wrong. Try again. The question you should ask is, “How is it possible that he wins with this system/method and I don’t?”

And that really is the $64k question.

I cannot explain it. I have seen it over and over again. Something works for one person and simply does not work for another.

P.P.M.

ADELAIDE

ANGLE

that do not show up; my game is not as profitable playing across the board as it is to win – though the frustration level can be higher.

If I possessed greater skills in putting together vertical plays perhaps I could do better. But I know that as a longshot seeker, I tend to pass over too many logical horses to be successful and with a limited bankroll and being anti-ALL button, I have to live with the consequences. At least I am aware of what I am doing, and at least I have done the necessary work to know that betting to place or show is not the answer – in the long run anyway!

(4) Now we turn to the highlyrespected David Schwartz (www. horsestreet.com) who talks about the search for racing’s Holy Grail.

David says: When it comes to horseracing, most of us have been searching for a “Holy Grail” of sorts; that special system or approach that will lift us to the level we wish to attain. Some of us have found ways to win at a modest level but nothing that one could call earth-shattering. A handful of our number are winning and winning big. Those few make it look so easy.

Ever wonder why it is so easy for them and so difficult for the rest of us?

Some players resist that question entirely and instead, grasp a form of denial. “They are lying! I have no proof that they win at all.” This is actually a translation from “I can’t win and it is much more comfortable for me to believe that nobody wins than to face the fact that someone else is accomplishing what I have failed to achieve.”

Recently I had a conversation with someone that knows a winning player intimately. I mean he has known him for years. This winning player (whom I am also acquainted with) makes a good living betting on horse races and he lives the lifestyle that is indicative of a man with a six-figure income.

In spite of this, the friend says, “I’ve never actually seen proof that he is a winning player.”

I believe that the old “looks-likea-duck” adage works here. So, my contention is that he is probably a winning player.

My point is that there really are winning players. They are capable of making reasonably large sums of

Adelaide correspondent Mal James covers the South Australian racing scene with the special assignment of selecting strong horses to follow.

The David Jolly-trained TRESETTE is definitely worth following this month. The lightly-raced gelding has shown a liking for heavy tracks in her short career to date and judging by her form this campaign has come back to racing better than ever.

Stablemate DINGANE resumed racing following a seven month spell a few weeks ago at Morphettville and looks set for another successful season. The gelding is best suited over a sprint journey and has the right ability to progress into Open class company. TANQUERAY LADY is another lightly-raced mare from the Jolly yard; she’s probably best suited by 1600m; expect her to be raced into fitness and she will be ready to win this month. The four-year-old will produce her best form on a firm surface. Morphettvilletrained TAKEN THE ROAD has above average ability; the five-year-old mare gets back and needs a fast pace, but if she can get conditions to suit her style of racing has a devastating sprint when asked to “let-down”.

Strathalbyn-trained KUAKA has shown in a handful of starts that he has ability. The gelding won two races last time-in, so I expect him to make his presence felt this month. His best journey will be between 1000m to 1400m. MIDDLEMOUNT, from the John Thompson stable, resumed racing in SA this preparation after campaigning in Queensland; the gelding is beautifully bred and has shown enough in his short career to warrant serious thought in the coming weeks. Stablemate ATLANTA FALCON has a fast winning time over 1200m at Morphettville to his credit last January. If he can return to that form then look for him to be more than competitive this month.

Zabeel gelding LA SIROQUE is a most promising mare who is bred to stay all day; I expect her to show her true form when she gets out to a middle distance and further.

Lightly-raced STREETCAR REALITY is a promising sprinter and kept in his right grade he has the potential to string together several wins. RONORIK has plenty of ability, which he showed last time-in; the gelding relishes slow tracks.

He is a big strong type who gets back in a field and grinds home strongly.

TARA MAN is in the astute Tony McEvoy yard; the gelding’s staying ability is untapped at this stage but it’ll be no surprise to see him winning staying races in Melbourne this month. ADDICTION TO ROCK is a smart type who has won from 1100m to 1400m. His form at the start of this campaign has been hard to fault. The son of Rock of Gilbraltar is capable of winning over 1600m in the near future. SOPHINA only needs to return to her best form the win races. She was sent out favourite when she resumed this time-in but was a little disappointing; the mare is much better than she is showing. Country-trained JUST SYBIL has been a good “bread and butter” horse for her connections and there are more wins in store.

MAL JAMES’ BEST TO FOLLOW ■ COUNTER SIGN: Above average ability.

■ STRATUMOTOR: Showed ability at initial campaign.

■ ZIGGY’S CROWN: Created good impression on debut.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

39

STOP WATCH SPECIALS The following few horses have recently run exceptional times in morning track gallops and should be followed to a win. Bet to win if under 4/1 and each way if 4/1 or over. Check ability to handle going if track is rain-affected.

ARLINGTON ROAD (VIC) Showed enough over 800m at Caulfield to note in your black book. ✦✦✦ CITY OF LIGHT (NSW) Made it look easy on the Randwick dirt 1000m in 1.02.4s. ✦✦✦ DECEMBER DRAW (VIC) Turned in a great effort over 1000m in 1.07.32s at Flemington. ✦✦✦ DRAGONS FOREVER (QLD) Breezed over 600m at Eagle Farm on the dirt. ✦✦✦ ELUSIVE BOUNTY (NSW) Was all class at Rosehill clocking 36.69 over 600m. ✦✦✦ FAST SHANTI (NSW) Showed some style at Randwick with 36. 48s over 600m. ✦✦✦ LIQUORICE LOVER (NSW) Tore 600m in 35.50s at Broadmeadow. ✦✦✦ PRESSADAY (NSW) Put in an impressive effort with 52.45s over 800m. ✦✦✦ PRUSSIONA STORM (VIC) Galloped well over 800m in 54.21s at Caulfield. ✦✦✦ SIDE TO SIDE (QLD) Kicked up the dirt over 800m at Eagle Farm in 49.1s. ✦✦✦ TRUE PERSUASION (VIC) Looked fit on the viscoride at Flemington over 800m. ✦✦✦ WHAT HAPPENED HENRY (QLD) One to watch after a good work out at Eagle Farm. ✦✦✦

40 – SEPTEMBER 2011

HORSES TO FOLLOW with THE OPTIMIST

These horses are selected from various races and various tracks, and consequently they may be racing at different spots around the country. Make sure you check all the indexes when you’re considering any of these horses. We suggest that you bet for a win up to $5.00, and each way at, or above, that price. Watch for changes in riders and distances, and be very careful not to miss horses that travel interstate.

BUGABOO: Argentinean imported three-year-old filly that had her first race start on August 5. Ran a very comfortable race and finished fourth, roughly 3½ lengths off the winner which is also amongst our horses this month. Passed a couple in the straight and will like it longer.

GLIDING: Second lifetime run in August, obviously with some more work to be done. In the market again but also probably looking for further. Has the Bart polish.

Didn’t get any favours this time out (even in the small field) and will get better.

HOME ON A WING: Nice sort of win at Randwick, fully anticipated by many punters.

At drifting odds early on, he was crunched from 8’s to about 7/2 late in the betting and won with a leg in the air. More wins would look to be a mere formality for this five-year-old, but two wins from 18 starts is a worry.

LETHAL ARROW: Tried awfully hard carrying top weight at Flemington, but was just nutted by stablemate and favourite White Universe on the line. Reverse the riders and you possibly reverse the placings. Has a bright future in the Moody camp.

NEVER DOUBT ME: Won what may prove a key race for the minors in the next few weeks. Comes from up Port Macquarie way (lucky thing!) and has now taken out five from nine, with another three placings. She donkey-licked that lot and also carries weight easily.

PERIDUKI: Adelaide 7yo that tries his heart out every time he goes around, often with the right result. Has now recorded around 40 per cent wins over some 50 starts. Was beaten by Uxorious (see below) last start when the winner skipped clear in the early part of the straight.

SARGE IN CHARGE: Might be underestimated. Came late in a straight race at Flemington at most recent outing. That was a very competitive field. I’d be inclined to look for each way odds, his problem being that he seldom wins. No further than 1100m at present.

SHUSWAP: Awful name isn’t it? Also from my nominated key race and ran a nice, even sort of race, suggesting she might want a bit further than that event’s 1300m.

She was coming on well at the finish and looks like a miler at least.

UXORIOUS: Shot away at the top of the straight at Morphettville. Has been a good performer this year but hasn’t been all that lucky in the East. Seven wins from 13 starts tells you that this is a serious racehorse.

WINTER KING: Connections must have believed at the start of things that they had something special here, and yet again when beaten a lip by Rain Affair it had looked like Winter King’s turn had arrived (at $61!!). The five-year-old seems to throw in the towel. I may be wrong. 1100m max? We’ll see soon.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

offered at place odds around, say, $3, when they’re the only tangible thing you have to go on and the whole race.

To summarise, then. There will be other criteria, other factors, on the race day. Of course there will.

The barrier draw for one. But the only thing you and I will know for absolute sure is that there is one horse in the field which doesn’t need to prove its ability at the track or at the distance. That alone will pull you in winners and placegetters beyond anything else in the early twoyear-old races.

PART TWO: THE TEACHERS Uneducated kids need experienced teachers. Somebody has to teach the kids. The more experienced somebody is, the better I like it. I’m an enormous fan of heavyweight jockeys such as Nash Rawiller. Give me a horse carrying 56kg most any time against a horse carrying, say, 52kg or even less with an apprentice on board. But I will always, always the very satisfied with this where the babies are concerned.

The babies have to be taught, and a baby carrying a deadweight and sensing both the strength and the control of the teacher, will run confidently. A baby which is carrying some deadweight, or is simply being instructed and guided by another baby, is in a situation where both of them are still learning their trade.

That doesn’t make for the ideal relationship in my book. Of course the top apprentices will win races on the juniors, and of course the lesser senior jockeys will also win races on them; but the bottom line is that when the chips are down you are unlikely to see the top trainers heading for junior riders to guide their youngsters to success. This is naturally true of set weight events where no claims are allowed, but getting away from that for a moment, the more appropriate focus for betting on two-year-olds is between the actual fully fledged jockeys. Riders such as Luke Nolen, Craig Williams, Damien Oliver, Christian Reith, Chris Munce, the Cassidys, Glen Boss, Corey Brown, Kerryn McEvoy and perhaps half a

dozen others, including some up-andcomers you’ll just have to watch and assess for yourself, will always get the pick of the rides and will, generally speaking, do the right thing by you.

Needless to say, we have two absolute young New Zealand stars demonstrating their abilities right now, but I stress once again that they are still kids and that they are still learning. Every ride is a new experience for them and they will

Golden Slipper Winner Sepoy

make mistakes. I’m not keen in the biggest races!

Well, those guys are all the practical instructors, but what about the day to day teachers, the people who put in the hard yards, seven days a week, for several months prior to our even seeing these young animals?

Anybody living in Sydney knows full well that Chris Waller has absolutely blitzed the Sydney premiership and has elevated himself to the role of one of the nation’s senior headmasters, so far as our equine population is concerned. He has had enormous success with a handful of immigrants as well, but he’s now in a position where anything he touches just seems to flourish. Gai Waterhouse is now one of the senior trainers in more than one sense, and remains the dominant headmistress of the female group. Her way with both baby horses and her hand-picked riders is legendary in the community. Any

owner knows that you send your baby to Gai and it emerges a polished, fully rounded and thoroughly educated, well adjusted young man or woman.

Oh well, enough of my waxing philosophical! David Payne seems to me to be getting better each year and his turn’s going to come very shortly with a really crackerjack two-year-old.

Don’t be surprised if it’s this season.

He’s gone close.

John O’Shea, the Cummings family, and Newcastle’s Kris Lees are well up the list of proven educators, and this simple truth is that if you take the time to check out the premiership lists (you can see them in any issue of The Sportsman), you will see that we have a surfeit of riches here in my home state. The other states also are served well: Peter Moody has finally come right to the top in Melbourne. Just boasting for a moment, if you’re one of my regulars you may recall that I’ve made two major predictions in the last decade regarding Melbourne racing. One of these was that Peter Moody was destined to be the city’s number one trainer (I was actually a season too early with that one); the other one was that Luke Nolen was the natural successor to the Melbourne jockeys’ crown. When he had his terrible accident I was mortified because I feared that it would interfere with his progress to the top, which I believed he was destined to make. However, he didn’t let that little detail get in his road.

He’s reaping the rewards now, among them being the ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity to ride the world champion. But to be perfectly frank, I’d back him on a camel and I would be ultra-confident to have him on my chosen two year old.

Ultimately, then, it comes down to this. As with children, our baby horses need as much experience with the best teachers as it’s possible to have. The best trainers and the best jockeys will almost invariably provide the best education for the junior ranks. And one final point we should never forget: horses are incredibly sensitive to confidence and ability on the part of human beings. Remember that whenever you are doing the form, and you are in front of anything you can read about issues other than form.

The top teachers will, almost invariably, provide the best education.

P.P.M.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

41

✉

PO Box 614, Roseville NSW 2069 Email: sales@equest.com.au

DAY AT THE RACES Sir, The issue of racecourse attendances is one on which your magazine has written for many years; in fact, I have your first edition from 1985 and it has an article by Brian Blackwell warning of what was to come in the way of falling attendances and everything he predicted has come to pass.

I rarely attend race meetings.

Recently, for the first time in some 15 years, I went to a Flemington meeting.

It was like Guantanamo Bay. Stony-faced security guards everywhere, people running around with bright orange ID jackets, a dispiriting absence of bookmakers, a complete lack of atmosphere. I left before the seventh race. It was all too sad.

At one point, I counted about 12 security people in or close to the mounting yard. What on earth is happening? Are racetrack crowds so out of control they need to be policed as if the place was under terrorist threat?

And what’s with all these orange jackets for photographers? For goodness sake, is this really needed?

The races used to be run without all the nonsense that goes on today.

It used to be good enough to have a few poe-faced commissionaires – now we have a private security army.

No, you can stick your race meetings as far as I am concerned. I am happy betting through the Internet at home, and watching it all unfold on my TV screen. And I can yell and scream as much as I like without being threatened by a security man!

Paul Casey Croydon, Vic

42 – SEPTEMBER 2011

CUP RUNNETH OVER Sir, Just a few lines . . . As a long time PPM reader (I started reading it in 1987) I appreciate your all-round coverage of the spring Cups, and I am particularly appreciative of the earlybird coverage you give, such as the one in the August issue.

I was one of those readers who backed Viewed when it won the Cup at long odds (I got 66/1) because your pair of Brian Blackwell and The Optimist tipped it as one of their Top 6 in a PPM that came out several months before the Cups.

I am a fan of pre-post betting, so I was able to get in some good bets on Viewed early on and then on the day itself. It was the biggest win of my life, so you can realise how grateful I am to PPM and its writers.

There are a number of features I never miss in the magazine. One is The Optimist’s Plan of the Month and the other is Mal James’s Adelaide Angle.

The Plan of the Month has given me a host of good betting ideas, and Mal’s tips often pop up at very good prices in Adelaide. So they are the mainstays.

It goes without saying that I enjoy anything Brian Blackwell writes. His words of wisdom have led me to many

winners, and I have never regretted joining his PPD Club on the Internet some 10 years ago. Membership has enabled me to back so many great winners.

I wish you all the best with PPM. It’s been a marvellous addition to my racing life and I wouldn’t be without it.

I am now more than 70 years old and I have introduced quite a few fellow racing fans to the magazine, including my son and a nephew. They, too, are PPM fans.

Jack Rose New Farm, Brisbane NATIONAL POOLS Sir, I was very pleased to read the other day that progress is being made towards establishing a national TAB pool.

Why this hasn’t happened up to now is beyond me. It surely can only be of great benefit to rank and file punters to have a massive pool to bet into, and this is particularly so at midweek meetings.

State by state these midweek pools tend to be simply too small. A decent bet can kill the dividend. A national pool would add much to midweek betting’s appeal.

I hope that the powers that be get their collective head around this issue and take some positive action.

I would also like to see the Australian bets on Hong Kong racing incorporated into the huge HK betting pool. This is overdue, and I often wonder what the problem is in getting it going. Who is objecting – us or those in Hong Kong?

Jim Fairweather Tempe, NSW QUADRELLA MAN Sir, I am writing to you with a request – that one or more of your writers provide quadrella fans like myself with some ideas for betting this particular wagering form.

I have been a dedicated quaddie man for some years and have managed to crack a few good dividends, but I feel that I am not staking my money in the best manner. So this is where your blokes come in.

They have all the material at their fingertips so please, fellas, get your brains trust going and come up with some advice for beating the quadrella.

I know that many of your readers will appreciate such an article.

Penny Johannsen Frankston, Vic P.P.M. VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

he last couple of weeks of the 2010/11 season certainly made for some interesting punting . . . On the penultimate weekend I somehow managed to snare around a 50 per cent share of the Morphettville quaddie divvie, having only taken 20/1 shot Heaven For Sure and favourite Trentham as my selections in the last leg. Amazingly – for we all know the perils of the dreaded final quaddie hurdle – Heaven For Sure went like a scalded cat in front and just kept going, landing me a nice $4k or so for her much appreciated galloping troubles. This was an important win in more ways than one, however, as the very next weekend I had a bucks party to attend, and as the aptly entitled ‘best man’ (I’m glad the powers that be have in fact been keeping score all these years), a thing or two to organise . . .

The ‘lucky’ groom was none other

after getting under the tobacconist’s skin for repeatedly insisting that I only wanted ‘victory’ cigars and cost was irrelevant – until he actually punched in the price and I variously lower my demands to ‘win’, ‘break-

❛ In between eating packets of mustard in Dave's car ... ❜ than Farmer Dixon – Berry’s Creek’s hobby-breeder and gun-etiquette teacher extraordinaire – having in the past year made official his adoration of, and devotion to, the lovely Ms Lane. It was decided by the aforementioned and appropriatelynamed ‘best man’ that this would be a gambling-themed bucks weekend – perhaps unsurprising when analysing the company involved, as it was no accident that the lucky four to be extended invitations also happened to be four of Melbourne’s shrewdest and most fearless punters.

In going about my final Friday morning preparations before we set off for the coastal chill of Apollo Bay (our rented domicile, by the way, was called ‘Southern Exposure’ – the connotations of which certainly weren’t lost on certain more immature and less ‘best’ members of our party), I decided that some scratchies were in order to provide us with a palatecleansing amuse-bouche. The nice woman who served me was somewhat shocked by the outrageous quantity of scratchies requested and proceeded to ‘miss the start’, but quickly knuckled down to her task like Palacio De Cristal (on a bone-dry track, of course) to hand me a rather impressive pile of tickets, shunting it over the counter like an armful of kindling cascading into the tinder box.

Next on the list were cigars, and VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

even’ and ‘moral victory’ cigars respectively – it was time to go.

Prior to departing it was mutually agreed that Friday would be a horseracing free zone, as we didn’t want to eat into our extremely large punting bank at the lowly provincials when the bigger city-grade fish were all set for frying just the very next day. So instead of sitting on the couch frittering away money on various inconsequential events around the nation, the evening began at the gentleman’s club, where we were discussing Wittgenstein over a game of backgammon.

In between eating packets of mustard in Dave’s car, however, we did manage to smash $200 on Drew ‘The Dish’ Petrie to kick the most goals of the night at $5.50, convinced that this contested-marking leviathan would have a night out on Carlton’s undersized defence. The Dish ultimately failed to flatter, but when our slow-cooked shoulder of lamb delivered the goods, spirits were soaring in the form of some expertlycrafted whiskey sours (although the buck would perhaps dispute the refinement with which one of his drinks was made, given that a long luscious strand of egg white had somehow failed to disintegrate in the shaking process and caused him more than a moment’s consternation/dryretching).

With sore heads but a positive outlook we arose the next morning, the best man particularly bullish having been the first to wake and witness a magnificent double-rainbow – with that lucrative pot of punting gold surely not too far behind.

Unfortunately, ‘behind’ would again prove the operative word, for nary a collect was had between these four wretched souls.

We spent a good two hours that morning planning our Big 6 at Caulfield, eventually deciding to leave out Diggers and Dealers and a couple of others in the first leg in favour of including Mr Griswold in the last. We were half right I guess . . . From there, the downward spiral wended on and painfully on, with quaddies and running doubles falling like pawns to Capablanca’s advancing might.

It wasn’t all bad in the end, with Farmer Dixon snaring a cool $50 from one of his scratchies. That wasn’t quite enough to get the cigars of moral victory cut and burning however, and they remain unsmoked to this very day – a silent tribute to the four brave men whose monthly wages were lost on the Shipwreck Coast.

P.P.M.

Check out the latest from Costa Rolfe with Costa’s Turf at practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

43

This section brings you day by day comments from weekly city, country and provincial meetings in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and, occasionally, South Australia. The comments can be accessed daily by members of the PPD Club (www.practicalpunting.com.au).

SATURDAY, AUGUST 6 At Flemington on Saturday (August 6) we noted TUNES revving up nicely in the final stages of a 1410m 3yo hdcp; in good hands, ready strike. THAT’S THE ONE was a bold winner. We marked down RUSE DE GUERRE from the Rowell 1710m; good late run. At Randwick, SHUSWAP ran very well for her 2nd over 1300m; Bart has her ticking along well.

AERONAUTICAL won in brilliant fashion again and is obviously way above average; Golden Rose could be in reach. We liked the run of STATUS QUO over 1600m; got warm late.

From the Doomben meeting, we noted an unlucky run from LAPEL over 1350m; held up for clear running in the straight.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 4 On Thursday, Aug 4, at Bendigo, we noted a big run from ALWAYS IN DA’NILE for 2nd in a Mdn Plate 1600m; very strong finale, just missed.

AMELIA ROSE was a very smart winner in a fillies & mares RB62 1400m. In the same race, MESMERIZE ME came home well for 4th.

MONDAY, AUGUST 1 At Echuca on Monday (Aug 1), FLASH O’BRILLIANCE came home well wide out for 4th over 1412m; ready to win.

SATURDAY, JULY 30 On Saturday (July 30), MASSONI made a big impression winning at Caulfield 1400m; he can win better races, maybe in the spring. We liked the runs of NOBLE TWOSTEP and PERONNE LADY in the 3yo Fillies 1000m. Nobletwostep, from the Rick Hore-Lacy steam, was boxed up on

44 – SEPTEMBER 2011

the inside in the final 100m, while Perrone Lady came home strongly over the final 200m. MIDNIGHT GLORY had no luck in the Jamison 1800m. There was much to like about the late charge of BRUNGLE CRY in the Yalumba Masters 2412m hdcp; this lightly-raced 4yo will move on to better things. BONDARENKO got too far back in the Fazrwelkl 1400m; came home stoutly wide out; stronger rider needed. At Rosehill, VALDHEZ was blocked for clear running at a key stage in the straight and lost any chance in the Glenrock 1500m; worth another chance. FLORENTINA was impressive winning over 1300m; stay with her. DOUBLE RANGA 2nd was just as impressive. Keep an eye on SEE THE WORLD; turned in a bold run over 1100m.

SUNDAY, JULY 17 At Seymour on Sunday (July 17) there were good efforts from BONDARENKO 3rd and PROVIDENTIAL 6th in a Cl 1 1300m; Bondarenko flashed home late and wide and Providential had trouble securing clear running from the 300m to the line. NOMATAMATA 2nd ran well in an RB62 1600m and is worth another chance. POLYGON PRANKSTER came from well back 400m out to run on for 4th over 1600m.

FRIDAY, JULY 15 On Friday, July 15, we liked the run of KNOWING on debut for 3rd in a 2yo Mdn 1100m at Wyong. LOVE SOMEBODY flashed home late for 3rd on debut in the 2nd division of the Mdn 1100m. At Geelong-S, in a Mdn Plate 1300m, we noted a good run by TUNES from the Peter Snowden team;

scored an easy win. In the same race, PETE’S SHOW ran on well for 2nd.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 13 We liked the run of THE WARRIOR WOMAN over 1300m at Warwick Farm on Wednesday (July 13); that was her first start for four months.

FRIDAY, JULY 8 On Friday, July 8, the Mark Kavanagh-trained KHALIFA was a highly impressive winner in a 2yo Maiden Plate 1000m at Geelong (synth). In the same race, EMPRESS CLEO shaped well for 3rd. Keep an eye on QALANJO, whose run for 2nd in a Mdn 1000m was a good one.

THURSDAY, JULY 7 At Grafton on Thursday (July 7), TRESCORPIONI came home well for 3rd in the Carlton Cup 1200m; got back, slick finale. At Bendigo, we liked the bold effort of SPARKS ALIGHT for 3rd over 1000m at her first start since early March; had to be eased across heels to make final 150m out. ALL THAT RAZZ (6th) and KAARMA (4th) could be worth following after their good efforts over 1600m in RB72 Mares class. TARTURI shaped well for 5th over 1400m at her first run since early January; improver.

SOFT SAND was an impressive debut winner in a 2yo Fillies Mdn; has a bright future. THE GOOD WIFE finished nicely for 5th. We were impressed by FAIR OLYMPIA in a Mdn Plate 1100m; held up and powered home. Keep an eye on UTAH ROSE 4th in a 3yo Fillies Mdn Plate 1400m; in good hands.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 6 On Wednesday, July 6, OUR POETIC PRINCESS turned in a nice run over 1300m at Sandown Lakeside. We liked the performance of RACER’S DREAM for 2nd in a 2yo 1400m. In the same race, NOT ON MONDAY ran well for 3rd.

P.P.M. A Gift, A Bonus & More

Yours

FREE SEE CENTRE CE PAGES PA FOR F DE DETAILS

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

omparisons are regularly drawn between the three racing codes on a number of issues. The starting method used in harness racing is one area that sets it apart from the other two codes and not necessarily in a positive way.

The starting procedures used in Thoroughbreds and Greyhounds differ little from track to track. The only major differences in Thoroughbreds relate to the number of starters and how close to the first turn that the starting gates are positioned.

In Greyhounds even that is fairly consistent with a reasonable run to the first turn.

When we shift our attention to the harness code there are many permutations to consider: • Mobile Start • Standing Start • Number of starters across the front – mobile • Number of starters across the front – stand • Distance to the first turn • Circumference of the track • Width of the track • Length of the straight • Sprint lane or no sprint lane To further illustrate these anomalies the following is a snapshot of the major track in each state.

Qld – Albion Park Circumference 1019m Starters Mob 11 SS 12 Front Line Mob 7 SS 8 Sprint Lane – Yes NSW – Menangle Circumference 1400m Starters Mob 10 SS 20 Front Line Mob 10 SS 10 Sprint Lane – No VIC – Tabcorp Park Circumference 1040m Starters Mob 12 SS 14 Front Line Mob 7 SS 7 Sprint Lane – Yes TAS - Elwick Circumference 970m Starters Mob 12 SS 14 Front Line Mon 7 SS 7 Sprint Lane – No SA – Globe Derby Circumference 845m Starters Mob 10 SS 12 Front Line Mob 6 SS 6 Sprint Lane – Yes WA – Gloucester Park Circumference 804m Starters Mob 12 SS 12 Front Line Mob 7 SS 6 Sprint Lane – No With WA recently deciding to go to a 7x5 format at least four of the six major tracks are now uniform for mobile starts but there is still a 50/50 split for sprint lanes.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

Victoria has committed considerable capital expenditure to moving towards standardised 1000m tracks in that state.

Unfortunately the costs involved are likely to preclude this initiative being replicated in other states.

Debate continues to rage on what circumference of track provides the best racing product. There is little doubt that Menangle would be the favourite for horses and participants. Personally I think a 1000m

Follow h harness with Ross Cooper in PPM track provides the best of both worlds with a fair contest and on course patrons being close enough to the action to feel some interaction.

Then we take into account the starting method with standing start races intermingled with mobile races over various distances and with different starting configurations. To say that we make it hard for the average punter is truly an understatement.

The mobile/standing start argument has been to the fore in all jurisdictions for many years and seems no closer to being resolved.

As an administrator I have bowed to industry representations on the basis that there is a reasonably large pool of horses that are infinitely better suited to standing start racing. Another plus for stands is the real ability to handicap horses by metres at the start. However, we rarely see a wide spread of handicapped runners these days as connections are extremely reluctant to set

a challenge for their horses off more than a 20 or 30 metre handicap.

Wagering turnover analysis of mobile and standing start racing is not conclusive and adds weight to the supporters of the latter who also see it as a varietal racing product.

In my opinion what is not quantifiable is the long term knock on affect if punters desert harness racing due to the unreliability and unpredictability of horses stepping cleanly in a standing start.

As already stated as an administrator I have supported the retention of standing start races but when I put my punter’s hat on I have a different philosophy. I find that my investment of standing start races is 60 per cent or less than that of a mobile start.

Given the time that a serious punter puts into reviewing race replays and a prerace form analysis it is very disconcerting when that goes out the window if a horse is badly away or meets severe interference in the early stages of a standing start race.

It can also be said that there are many very good and reliable beginners from the stand but overall there is still that air of unpredictability. The proponents of stands will no doubt point to their unpredictable nature as a plus rather than a negative.

Of course there are occasions where the unexpected happens in mobile races and it would be a very dull and mundane betting medium if everything went according to plan.

The harness racing industry is struggling for relevance in a very competitive market and it is long overdue for consistency of product to be foremost in the minds of those planning its future.

I am actually producing this column on a flight to New York to attend the World Trotting Conference and the World Drivers Series. I look forward to providing some firsthand observations and information on these two significant harness racing events on the international scene.

P.P.M.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

45

NZ Central best bets Alignadreams – Doesn’t possess the grandest of records, but there was much to admire about her solid effort at Otaki in late July. The daughter of Align sped straight to the front for jockey Kane Smith, eased clear at the 600m, and proved too strong in the concluding stages. The 5-yearold finished runner-up at her previous outing.

Elusive Red – Awapuni trainer Lisa Latta always has a pretty strong team and this filly only adds to that reputation. She didn’t finish out of the money in her last six starts as a 2-year-old last season and won two of those races. The daughter of Elusive City’s formline looks good too as she defeated Snow Excuse on July 9.

La Pierre – Older middle-distance performer who’s been most consistent during his recent racing. The St. Petersburg 6-year-old won his maiden event at Trentham back in May and racked up four further dividend-bearing places in succession. He fought well at Otaki to hold for third after travelling four-wide from the 1200m.

Marea Alta – This rapidly improving mare surprised a few people when she added the Taumarunui Gold Cup to her collection of victories held at Te Rapa toward the end of July. Veteran rider Noel Harris rode the daughter of Montjeu and Semper Fidelis a treat. He had her biding her time beyond midfield and eased wide on the final bend and the then 5-year-old completed the rest.

No Excuse Maggie – Well, her opponents certainly couldn’t muster any excuses when she beat them fair and square in an R90 1600m affair at Te Rapa on July 31. Jimmy Choux’s stablemate made an awkward beginning for rider Sam Spratt although she quickly sped to the lead. The No Excuse Needed 5-year-old kicked at the 400m and just held onto first prize in a desperate finish.

Testa Secret – This chestnut completed her 2-year-old season in decent fashion when running second in the listed Ryder Stakes at Otaki. It looked for all money like she would take home first prize, but was nutted on the line by northern raider Snow Excuse. She had previously won a listed event at Foxton.

P.P.M.

46 – SEPTEMBER 2011

Eye on Video Affairoftheheart – This mare has been around the scene for a few years now and she’s been racing in great heart of late. She contested a 1600m open handicap at Pukekohe on August 6 and it looked like she may win, but second was her lot.

She’ll prove dangerous in lesser events in the next few weeks.

Hawick Park – I thought this gelding had an R70 grade affair wrapped up at Pukekohe in early August when he swept to the front at the 300m. But he died on his run and succumbed to two chasing rivals and just hung on for third money. Another lower grade winner’s check isn’t far away.

Nearly Stolen – This gelding may not own the best record on the northern circuit, but it was the manner in which he won at Pukekohe in early August that we should be taking note of. He destroyed his R70 grade opponents by a massive six lengths.

Sarasun – Ustinov filly who despite being beaten into second place at Pukekohe will improve immensely with the run as it was just her second start back from a lengthy spell. She had produced a top run fresh-up when winning in R80 class at Tauranga.

Vamoose – Competent hurdler who was comprehensively beaten by rising star Borrack at Riccarton on August 6. Nevertheless, there was much to admire about his game run for second and he’ll prove a real threat in any upcoming assignments. He travelled and jumped well throughout.

NZ TWO EACH WAY SPECIALS KILFLYNN 6g : Trainer – Nick Duin 24 starts : 2 wins : 3 places Win distance range : 1200m Track conditions won on : Fast/Good This gelding’s raw stats look rather perplexing and you may wonder why I’m including him here. Well, the truth is just about all his racing has been conducted in Hong Kong where he managed to win two Shatin sprints. He recently returned home to New Zealand where he looked an improver when second to Happyto Keepa at Te Rapa on July 30. The son of Jahafil handled the bad conditions well enough to be considered for future engagements in the immediate future.

HAPPINESS RULES 6m : Trainer – Jocelyn Burley 10 starts : 1 win : 1 place Win distance range : 1600m Track conditions won on : Dead Chestnut mare who hasn’t exactly set the world on fire and in fact hasn’t greeted the judge since August 2010. But don’t despair. By the same sire as Innocent Lady, she experienced nigh on an eight-month spell between last November and June of this year, so we can’t be too harsh on her. She didn’t catch my eye during her first three starts this preparation, but finished a game runner-up to Magna Carter at Te Rapa at tremendous odds. Watch out for her in lesser company – maybe a nice midweek middle-distance R70 event will suit her well.

P.P.M. VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

ALDOVINO – The Graeme & Debbie Rogerson training partnership has a number of talented types domiciled in their stable and this bloke is indeed one of those.

The son of Mossman won his first two raceday outings on wet ground although his connections expect him to be even better on firmer surfaces.

Senior rider Leith Innes hopped aboard him on debut and the combination easily defeated their rivals. The 4-yearold completed a brace of wins when successful in stronger 3yo company at Te Rapa.

COSABELLA – Stravinsky mare who’s been most consistent this time up and another winning check should be within her grasp over the next few weeks before the tracks become too hard. The 5-year-old bay proved successful in a Paeroa hack event freshup back in May and has threatened to repeat in a number of starts since. The closest she came was at Te Rapa where she ran second behind the in-form Crown Of Thorns.

CROWN OF THORNS – I’ve been disappointed on more than one occasion by this mare. The daughter of

OLLINGER – This customer looks to possess plenty of talent and he’s recently returned from a late summer/autumn spell to commence a new campaign. The chestnut Stravinsky entire showed promise in his freshman season; chalking up a maiden success on debut in a 1000m dash at Riccarton.

The 4-year-old looked well forward when presented at an Ashburton trial on July 12. And he performed up to those looks when winning fresh-up at Oamaru.

GUANANJUATO – Former North Island gelding who proved a virtual dud on the flat there chalking up just the one victory. The 6-year-old headed to the South Island for easier pickings, but in fact raced worse than he did in the north. The son of Don Eduardo was then switched to a jumping career and won nicely over hurdles on the last day of June.

However, ‘chasing could well be his forte as he put in a game effort to win over the larger fences on the same track at Oamaru.

HALO BUSTER – This chap owns an ordinary record thus far, but he’s VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

Northern best bets with Rochdale

Crown Park is generally thereabouts, but has often failed to deliver at the vital moment. However, that all appears to have changed this campaign as the 6-year-old put together a brace of 1400m wins over the winter period. She won up north at Ruakaka and then six weeks later beat Cosabella at Te Rapa. Varying track conditions won’t be an issue.

INNOCENT LADY – This more than useful staying mare has come back from a spell looking fantastic – emphasised by her excellent performance fresh-up at Te Rapa on the penultimate day of the season. The Viking Ruler 5-year-old settled fifth in the small field for jockey Mark du Plessis and it looked like her condition may give out when the pressure went on. However, she continued a game run in the heavy conditions and nailed victory near the line. She ran fourth

Sth Island best bets with ‘Otago’

been sparingly raced throughout the winter period and I expect him to have a few tricks up his sleeve yet. The My Halo gelding ran third in the same event as Sir Ram and SHOTOUTOFAGUN – noted below – so I’m expecting this race to be a nice little form event – possibly even a future key race (for those who follow such theories). He won’t be long out of the winner’s circle.

HOP HONOR – This chestnut mare was hopeless on the flat, returning a pair of third places only from 16 starts. And then she was schooled over fences to wake her ideas up and it appears to have worked. The daughter of His Royal Highness made her jumping debut at Oamaru on the final day of last season and she did the business in no uncertain terms.

The 5-year-old bounced straight to

behind Titch in the last Auckland Cup. MAGNA CARTER – His Royal Highness gelding racing out of the northern Ruakaka barn of trainers Dean & Donna Logan. The 5-yearold possesses a decent record on his home track – as most trained up there tend to do – but it was his effort at Te Rapa in July that I took particular note of. Racing over a middle-distance, he teamed up with class hoop James McDonald to comfortably defeat 12 R70 grade rivals. He had previously run in the money in his two previous races in similar company and over the same distance.

ONE NITE STAND – Daughter of Cullen who’s been round the traps a fair while, but I’m sure we can grab a win out of her before too long. And she handles all types of track conditions which can only enhance our chances of a decent collect. The John Sargentprepared sprinter almost stole the 1400m open affair at Te Rapa in late July, but succumbed to Innocent Lady and Master Power late in the piece.

That’s good form and a similar effort will see the 6-year-old greeting the judge again in no time.

P.P.M.

the front for rider Mark Marris and the combination was never headed; defeating their rivals by three lengths.

SIR RAM – Five-year-old chestnut gelding racing out of the Shane Marr barn. And he’s had very few starts – just five – given his age. And like Bollinger he’s also recently returned from a spell along with a very similar start to his new preparation. By the same sire as Hop Honor, he was produced at the Ashburton trials where he accounted for three rivals in an open catchweight. He then lined up at Oamaru where he led all the way in an R65 sprint.

SHOTOUTOFAGUN – Le Bec Fin gelding prepared by Terri Rae who has only recently entered my thought patterns. He’s just returned to the racetrack following a six month spell, but like Bollinger and Sir Ram has come back in fine fettle. All his prior racing had occurred in the tougher arena that is the central North Island circuit and he’ll find things much more to his liking out of his new home base. He ran a nice second firstup behind Sir Ram. P.P.M.

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

47

Don’t be a mad loser

PLAYING SAFE . . . LIKE A PRO have seen lots of dashing gamblers in my time. Some have even hit the headlines with their betting coups but if we take the group as a whole, few of them were able to “see out the distance”.

That is, they went broke or they retired in the knowledge that if they didn’t then they would go broke. In the same period, some 25 years and more,

with none of the remaining 11 starters figuring to win.

“The gambler said that was the way he saw the race and he said he was going for a big hit on Horse A. He said his connections at the stable had told him it was a certainty.

“He was talking as a gambler, not an investor. He agreed with me that there was no more than a half length or so

have had $8050 to $2300 on Horse B and the balance of his $10,000 on Horse A with a bet of $17,355 to $7700 had he secured top prices. Instead, he put all his eggs in the one basket and ended up with a mess of broken shells.

“There is no strict formula to multiple betting. It depends to a great extent on odds and chances. The idea is to make a book against the bookies by backing all the chances, some to square the transaction and others to show a profit.

“Or, if the prices permit, to gain between the pair yet he was going to an equal profit if any of your fancies put everything on one horse. It didn’t wins. I will rarely lay odds-on a horse make sense. winning, or just back one runner. The “Why not play safe and back both, I only time I ever break these rules is said to him. He laughed and told me when I come to a race in which there is he thought Horse A would win and it NO second best. Even then, I hesitate was silly to waste money on another about taking odds-on. runner.

“In multiple betting, if I can trim the “I just could not follow his line of field down to a point where one of a thinking. He admitted that one of two number of runners MUST win, I will runners should win, that there was bet odds-on finding the winner. My next to nothing between them, yet he policy has always been to find what was declaring for one.

I consider to be bettable races; that “In the end, he had $22,250 to $10,000 is, a race in which there are a limited on Horse A and what happened? number of chances with the prices Horse B at 3/1 won the race, beating permitting me to invest on them all.

Horse A by a head. The tragedy is that “In the majority of instances I decide Horse A was a good thing beaten. It how much I will lay out. I then insure finished up that this gambler had to myself against total loss by backing ask for time to pay yet he could have the dangers to return me the full played safe by making full allowance stake. I place the balance of the money for the bad luck of the race. available on my prime choice.

“I recall my bet. I had $385 to $100 on “Provided you do the form, and bet Horse B and $345 to $155 on Horse A. in this manner, you won’t have many Then to make Horse B my best result, worries. Most times you will break I took $100 to $33 on Horse B and square or show a profit. $200 to $100 on Horse A at the close of “On other occasions, if there are betting. two outstanding chances and only “My total investment was $388. one danger, I will make the latter Horse B returned me $618 while the ‘saver’ and back the other two to the return had Horse A won would produce a clear profit irrespective of have been $800. On the way the which one wins. If there are only two race figured, it was a satisfactory chances in a race, I will, if the odds are investment. right, support both to win the same “Had the gambler bet in this ratio amount.” he would still be in business. Or if he

By Richard Hartley Jnr thought Horse A was the best, he could PRACTICAL PUNTING - March 2004

❛ A few have retired with money intact ❜ I’ve known many professional punters who have beaten the game. A few have retired with money intact. Many are still doing it.

Professional bettors, in my experience, operate in various ways but those who have proven themselves the most effective have been patient “multiple bet” types. These are the guys who make betting a serious business interest.

They haven’t sought a massive fortune from the game but they have set out to make a living from it. Not an easy assignment.

On the other hand, some of the more reckless gamblers I’ve run into didn’t plan long term. Instead, they lived for the moment and they went for the big hits, often risking everything on one bet.

I was reading an interesting article the other day, from a magazine published in the ‘60s, in which the writer told of his experience at Randwick one day.

Here’s what he said and I put it forward here as an example of the differences between sensible and reckless betting.

“I was having a cup of tea with a gambler who, halfway through the first day of the two-day meeting, was down $17,000 after four races. He asked me my view of a Novice race and I told him there was not more than a kilo or so between Horse A and Horse B,

P.P.M.

48 – SEPTEMBER 2011

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

THE FINAL WORD with Brian Blackwell

always like to do a lot of speculative betting on the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and thanks to a number of big hits in the last 10 years I am well ahead of the game.

Those of you who like pre-post betting should always look around for the best prices.

The ‘odds comparison’ at www. way2bet.com.au is a useful service. It has current Cups prices from Betfair, IASbet, Centrebet and Sportsbet.

As I write this, on August 10, the Betfair prices were far more attractive than the others. The ‘real’ bookies keep a close eye on each other. Betfair is, for obvious reasons, more of a maverick.

VALE GEOFF WHITTLE It’s with much sadness I report the

sudden death of our Perth contributor Geoff Whittle.

Geoff had only been with PPM for a few months but he had made an immediate impact through his popular Perth Turf column. In our July issue he had his first major feature article for us – looking ahead to the spring for the best WA prospects.

We planned many more articles from him. Then, alas, came his unexpected death. Many tributes have been paid to him. He was, in true Aussie style, a good bloke, always ready to lend a helping hand, and to offer shrewd advice to his fellow punters.

THE SPRING LOOMS We have a lot of really good horses set to clash in the major spring races.

The Cartoon Stakes with Dave B

Martin Dowling’s FOCUS HORSES Special formula tips: * Aeronautical * Florentina I am eagerly awaiting the return of Secret Admirer. And Black Caviar (of course!). And the return of Americain. And the new campaign of Scarlett Lady.

It’ll also be exciting to see which international stayers make it here for the Cups and perhaps the Cox Plate. Hopefully, the Japanese will be coming.

Our October PPM will be a Caulfield Cup special issue. We’ll give as broad a coverage as possible to all the betting aspects of the great race.

THE BIG BREAK If you want a new, exciting, dynamic addition to your betting armoury, then look no further than The Big Break. You can read all about it on Page 7 and through the magazine’s pages. It’s a beauty, and we’re making a great subscription offer to go with it.

JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW MELBOURNE: Glen Boss, Dwayne Dunn, Craig Williams.

SYDNEY: Kathy O’Hara, Brenton Avdulla, Nathan Berry.

BRISBANE: Larry Cassidy, Jim Byrne, Chris Munce.

P.P.M.

THE LATE MAIL NOBLE TWOSTEP: Excellent run at Caulfield 1000m, July 30.

PERONNE LADY: Smart filly from Darren Weir’s stable at Ballarat.

MASSONI: Shows huge potential for the Tony Noonan yard.

STRATFORD: Big winner at Rosehill in late July.

THAT’S THE ONE: Strong finish for Flemington win, August 6.

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

SEPTEMBER 2011 –

49

ALPHABETICAL LIST OF HORSES IN THIS ISSUE Addiction To Rock

39

Aeronautical

25,33,44,49 Affairoftheheart 46 Alignadreams 46 All That Razz 44 Always In Da’Nile 44 Amelia Rose 44 Anabaa’s Legacy 10,22 And Rock 22 Arlington Road 40 Atlanta Falcon 39 Avenue 30

B

aldovino Banco Mo Basil Da Man Beaded Bel Prince Bel Sprinter Beyond Pardon Black Caviar Bollinger Bondarenko Brazilian Pulse Brungle Cry Buffering Bugaboo

Cat’s Pyjamas

Catapulted Cedarberg Centennial Park City Of Light Cosabella Counter Sign Crown Of Thorns Curtana

47 25 30 30 25 10 30 30 47 44 6,30 44 30 40 30 30 30 30 40 47 39 47 30

Dance With Her

30 Dances With Waves 30 Danleigh 30 December Draw 6,40 Descarado 30 Devils Arcade 30 Diggersanddealers 25 Dingane 39 Divya 30 Do Ra Mi 30 Double Ranga 44 Dragons Forever 40 Dubleanny 30 Dunaden 6

E

clair Flyer Eclair Mystic

30 30

Eclair Surprise Elusive Bounty Elusive Red Elusive Touch Empress Cleo En Masse

30 40 46 30 44 15

Fair Olympia

44 Fallen For You 19 Fast Clip 30 Fast Shanty 40 Felony Flight 36 First Command 30 First Look 30 Flash O’Brilliance 44 Florentina 44,49 Foxstar 30

G

ail Gliding Glittering Gossip Girl Guananjuato Gybe

Hapiness Rules

Halo Buster Harbour Watch Hawick Park Hay List Heart Of Dreams Heart To Fear Heidilicious Hidden Wonder Hiruno D’Amour Hissing Sid Hood Home On A Wing Hop Honor Hurtle Myrtle

I

lovethiscity Innocent Lady Ironstein

Just Sybil Kaarma

Khalifa Kilflynn Knowing Kontiki Park Koranovsky Kuaka

La Pierre

La Siroque

50 – SEPTEMBER 2011

30 40 15 22 47 30 46 47 19 46 30 30 36 30 30 6 10 30 40 47 30

Lady Lynette 30 Ladys Angel 30 Lake George 25 Lapel 44 Launay 30 Lethal Arrow 40 Linton 6,30 Liquorice Lover 40 Longwah Supreme 15 Love Conquers All 30 Love Somebody 44 Lucky Eighty Eight 30

Macs Power

19 Magna Carter 47 Maluckyday 30 Marea Alta 46 Massoni 44,49 Master Elite 15 Mesmerize Me 44 Metal Bender 30 Mid Summer Music 30 Middlemount 39 Midnight Glory 44 Midori’s Quest 25 Mikiyama 30 Military Gal 31 Mirjulisa Lass 31 Miss Octopussy 31 Moama 10 Module 22 More Joyous 31 Motorised 10 Mythical Spirit 31

Nathaniel

30 47 30

19 Nearly Stolen 46 Neeson 31 Never Doubt Me 40 No Excuse Maggie 46 Noble Park 25 Noble Twostep 44,49 Nomatamata 44 Not On Monday 44

39

Ofcourseican

44 44 46 44 30 36 39 46 39

Once Were Wild One Night Stand Our Poetic Princess

31 31 47 44

Periduki

40 Peronne Lady 44,49 Pete’s Show 44 Phenomenal Lass 25 Philda 31 Pimpala Secret 31

Pinker Pinker 31 Pinnacles 25 Pinwheel 25,31 Pitt Street 31 Polygon Prankster 44 Pressaday 40 Providential 44 Prussiona Storm 40 Pureness 31

Qalanjo Racer’s Dream

Rangirangdoo Redhandedjill Returntosender Reuben Percival Ronorik Ruse De Guerre

44 44 31 31 31 31 39 44

Sacred Choice

31 Sarasun 46 Sarge In Charge 40 Scarf 31 Scarlett Lady 6,31 Screen 31 Sea Of Heartbreak 19 Sea Prince 15 See The World 44 Set For Fame 31 Set Me Straight 10 Shamrocker 6,31 Shez Sinsational 6 Shoot Out 6,31 Shootoff 6,31 Shotoutofagun 47 Shuswap 40,44 Side To Side 40 Sincero 31 Sir Ram 47 Soft Sand 44 Sophina 39 Soul 31 Sparks Alight 44 State Grade 22 Star Of Giselle 10 Status Quo 44 Stratford 49 Stratumotor 39 Streetcar Reality 39 Super Bobo 15 Sweetest Melody 25

Tactician

Taken The Road Tanqueray Lady Tampiko

19 39 39 31

Tara Man 39 Tarturi 44 Temple Of Boom 25 Testa Secret 46 Thankgodyou’rehere 31 That’s The One 10,25,44,49 The Cleaner 25 The Good Wife 44 The Inventor 36 The Verminator 31 The Warrior Woman 44 Tomboy 25 Toorak Toff 31 Tranquil Lass 25 Tree Bandit 25 Trescorpioni 44 Tresette 39 Trim 31 Triple Elegance 31 Tromso 31 Ture Persuasion 40 Tullamore 31 Tunes 44 Turnitup 31

Utah Rose Uxorious

V

aldhez Valentine Miss Vamoose Victory Ide Say Vivid Vixen Voice Commander

44 40 44 31 46 15 31 31

W

arm Love 31 Warpath 31 Well Handled 31 Western Wager 25 What Happened Henry 40 Whobegotyou 31 Willy Jimmy 31 Winning Mascot 15 Winter King 33,40 Woorim 36

Yosei

Yulalona

Z

edi Knight Ziggy’s Crown Zingaling

31 31 31 39 31

VISIT – practicalpunting.com.au

PracticalPuntingDaily PracticalPunting Daily Australia’s leading tipping service front page latest news hot gossip new zealand hong kong subscribe now ppd club today’s tips long-shots long-range betting statsman video view daily notebook impactpro racing ratings guide to winning problems, comments, suggestions – email sales@equest.com.au

The Internet website that makes fortunes for followers!

Daily Specials

YOUR DAILY SELECTION SERVICE Brilliant daily service pinpointing two best bet specials with outstanding results.

Longshots

PPD’s ability to pick longshots week after week is legendary.

ImpactPro

The best rating service on the net! Covers a few selected races only each day with astonishing success. Simple, selective and profitable.

Massive profits, tens of thousands of dollars in collects, elated subscribers. Join now and be a part of this phenomenal moneymaking adventure.

Long Range Betting www.practicalpunting.com.au

Indian Trader $6.00 tops PPD Club winning charge on Friday Another winning day for PPD Club members on Friday. Our 4 Daily Specials tips produced 2 winners and a 2nd. The winners were INDIAN TRADER $6.00/$1.80 and NAFISAH $1.80/$1.20. The 2nd placegetter was MAGIC MARKINGS $4.60/$1.90. The day ended on a high note when our only UK tip got home easily at the Worcester jumps meeting - GENEVA GEYSER $4.00/$2.00.

THE PPD CLUB – 7 DAYS A WEEK All this for just

$1.20 a day

✓ Yes! ✓ Yes!

PPD CLUB ORDER FORM To: Practical Punting Monthly, PO Box 614, Roseville, NSW 2069.

Please subscribe me to The PPD Club for 6 months. I enclose my cheque/money order for $220 (inc. GST) or charge my credit card below.

Yes I want the PPD Club automatic renewal service! As a valued subscriber, I understand that I will ensure and enjoy continuous service at the lowest possible renewal rate each six months for the PPD Club, unless I tell you to stop, with billing in advance for each renewal term and I authorise you to charge my credit card, and I can cancel my automatic renewal of the PPD Club at any time.

MASTERCARD

VISA

Put a cross here if you do NOT wish to renew automatically

NUMBER NAME ………………………………………………………………… EXPIRY DATE ………………………

IT’S EASY TO ORDER:

ADDRESS ……………………………………………………………………………………………………

Email:

………………………………………………… POSTCODE……………… SIGNATURE……………………

Online:

EMAIL …………………………………………………………………… PHONE...………………………….

Call:

sales@equest.com.au

www.practicalpunting.com.au

02 9417 6551

OR go to our WEBSITE: www.practicalpunting.com.au and use the order form there. Of course, Fax: 02 9417 6621 you can fax or phone your order if you prefer. Telephone: (02) 9417 6551 – Fax: (02) 9417 6621 Whilst past results can indicate a strong and reliable method, turf speculation cannot be guaranteed as to future By Mail: Equestrian Publishing Pty Ltd, PO Box 614, Roseville, NSW, 2069 performance. The company therefore cannot accept any guarantees or warranties against future profits.

A Gift, A Bonus & More

Yours

FREE!

Practical Punting Monthly Here are your subscriber benefits . . .

✔ ✔ FREE

V l d Valued at $200

Th e

BIG

BRE 127%

AK

Profit

Big Break Phone Selection Service

✔ FREE Guaranteed ✔savings over $325 85

SINCE 19

Yearly Subscription to PPM

SEE CENTRE PAGES FOR DETAILS