Wars and rumours of wars

Wars and rumours of wars

Philip Wilson addresses recent comments and speculation in the media that we are in ‘pre-war’ times.

A young man in RAF uniform sat in front of me. He looked a teenager, so I was surprised to hear he had just got married. I had no idea why he wanted to see me.

It was March 2022.

After about 20 minutes of casual chat, it came out: “Padre, I’m very worried.”

“About what?”

“About whether we’re going to war or not.”

I could hardly believe my ears.

“I’m 90% sure you’re not,” I assured him.

Today, two years later, I’m not so sure.

So much has happened since 24 February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. As one famous British 20th-century politician once said: “History is littered with wars which everybody knew would never happen.” Many countries, such as France, confidently predicted Russia would never invade. It should have been all over in weeks. Alas, the great Russian Bear had forgotten (as had many Western leaders), that wars are not merely won because of the physical component (what weaponry you have), nor the conceptual component (how well you are trained in using your weaponry), but essentially by the moral component (the belief that you are fighting a just war by just means). Ukraine had the moral component by the bucket load and held out against all the odds in the face of a vastly superior foe. It was David and Goliath all over again.

The conflict, however, is now in stalemate. Neither side seems able to make a decisive breakthrough and the first major land war in Europe for 80 years could go on for many more months and years. Although the West continues to support Ukraine militarily and politically, fearing that if they can’t stop Russia now, they never will, the cost is immense and the US Congress has various factions wanting to pay less and be more isolated. This hesitancy is increasingly giving Russia supremacy.

On 7 October 2023 things got even more messy. Hamas terrorists invaded Israel from Gaza in Palestine, brutally killing around 1,200 and kidnapping approximately 250 men, women and children. This incursion, condemned by 44 nations, was seen as the worst attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Israel retaliated swiftly, furiously and most commentators would say disproportionately – with some 30,000 estimated Palestinian fatalities. Around 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million population have been displaced, with a quarter of them (according to the UN) placed in extreme hunger conditions. This ongoing conflict has seriously destabilised the broader Middle East, with enraged Houthi rebels, who sympathise with Palestine’s plight, using inexpensive drones to blow up international shipping in the Red Sea, forcing much cargo around the Cape of Good Hope of southern Africa. The logistics of international trade are now extremely dangerous, considerably slower and much more expensive. Consequently, a 10-nation-strong international coalition has emerged, with navies, including the Royal Navy, patrolling shipping lanes and shooting down drones.

Our preaching must rise to the challenge of these days… Every single congregation is made up of sensitive and inquiring souls who await a ‘word from the Lord’ on the big issues of life.

This year, US bombers, assisted by RAF Typhoon jets, launched raids to destroy Houthi drone sites, with periodic attacks in Yemen. The deaths of three American soldiers in Jordan was seen as a further escalation, so the US made reprisal attacks against numerous military targets in Iran and Syria. Complicated, isn’t it? And that’s before we consider any instability caused by China or North Korea. One leading British commander has said it’s like a game of Jenga, where one wonders how many bricks can be removed before everything starts to collapse.

Between February 2022 and December 2023, the US Biden administration spent $44.2 billion in security assistance for Ukraine. The latest is that situations in Ukraine and Israel are being linked, at least financially, by some in the US Congress as part of a proposed $118 billion “security supplemental” where $60 billion goes to Ukraine and $14 billion to Israel. These are vast sums in an age when there are many pressing budgetary demands, but the understanding is that spending money is cheaper than sacrificing lives. In December 2023 the USA estimated that 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured in Ukraine. At this point you might want to stop reading, close your eyes and think about all of this. It’s almost beyond our understanding…

Not that our political leaders are getting much shut-eye. British Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, has openly admitted that the war in Ukraine keeps him awake at night. UK Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, has spoken of moving out of a post-war world into a “pre-war” world. The House of Commons Defence Select Committee has questioned whether the nation has the equipment and the people to fight and win any conflict lasting longer than a few months. The Chief of the General Staff of the British Army,

General Sir Patrick Saunders, has spoken of the need for a citizens’ army. Now the ‘c’ word is being mentioned in certain elements of the media – conscription.

Some might see this as the military posturing for money and prominence, what American President Eisenhower warned of as “the military industrial complex”, but it would be foolish to be complacent. Politicians and military leaders are well informed and walk a delicate path between making people aware and frightening them unnecessarily. War was famously defined by Carl von Clausewitz as “the continuation of politics by other means”, but that’s a bit rich. Rather, war is often a horrific indication that something has gone terribly wrong.

Prayer is…a must for our nations in these times – both personal prayers and the prayers of the whole church, fervently and frequently.

Jesus warned of “wars and rumours of wars” as signs of the end of the age, but said we “must not be alarmed” (Matthew 24:6). According to the book of James, wars happen because: “You want something and do not have it; so you commit murder. And you covet something and cannot obtain it; so you engage in disputes and conflicts” (James 4:1–2). The Apostle Paul in Romans reminds us of words from Deuteronomy, that “vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord” (Romans 12:17–19).

Our preaching must rise to the challenge of these days. The above

summary of international affairs is hideously complex, but we preachers need to wrestle with the facts and avoid sloppy thinking, generalisations and political bias. Every single congregation is made up of sensitive and inquiring souls who await a ‘word from the Lord’ on the big issues of life. In an oft-misquoted phrase, Reformed theologian Karl Barth urged church leaders to: “Take your Bible and your newspaper, and read both. But interpret newspapers from your Bible.” Relying exclusively on sources such as X, or any single news channel may not provide us with the most balanced of world views. An accurate exegesis of world affairs from reputable sources will increasingly require our hard graft and application.

Prayer is, of course, a must for our nations in these times – both personal prayers and the prayers of the whole church, fervently and frequently. For what should we pray? Well, experts say that 2024 will see approximately one half of the world’s population going to the polls to elect new governments. While democracy is preferable to many of the alternatives, election periods can bring instability and uncertainty, with promises easily made and facts frequently exploited. Pray for all leaders. Pray also for military personnel who need all the wisdom, grace and strength that God alone can bring. And pray for peace and for the peacemakers whom Jesus calls “blessed”. If we can all do that, then the world will be more pleasing to God and a better place for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren.

Rev Dr Philip Wilson is a chaplain with the Royal Air Force.