the knowledge
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Will the electric revolution remain on ICE?
HE NEWS THAT TRANSPORT FOR plug escalates to a point where the economic London has completed its programme benefit of migration to EVs dissipates or even to provide 300 rapid charging points disappears. One could say that saving Londoners’ across London is to be welcomed. health through improving air quality has a value, But let’s face it, 300 is never going to be something I agree with, but for the PH and anywhere near enough to enable London’s taxi driver when purchasing an EV there is a private hire and taxi industry to switch to electric. hefty premium – the sales huff and puff is that Forgetting for the moment the vans and private this is recovered through the comparatively cars in London, a study that I commissioned some lower fuel costs. four years ago found that 8,000 was the number Hmm. To hit that sweet spot there needs to be Dr Michael Galvin of rapid charging stations required for a complete balance between the vehicle purchasing premium https://mobility migration of both the taxi and PH industries to and the cost of charging. Both seem to be moving electric. in opposite directions with the poor old cabbie serviceslimited This assumed that a percentage of taxis and PHVs struggling for viability in the middle. Suffice to say, .com would be able to charge at home and then top up there appears to be nothing in place to provide during the day. I was unsuccessful in trying to get the any assurance on that front. data behind TfL’s figure of 300. I was keen to understand We are very much at the moment in first-mover territory, a few where that number came from, but I don’t believe there was relatively keen pioneers investing in the future. That voluntary any logic there. Ultimately, I assumed it was a political decision situation is at an end for taxis in London where any new vehicle – 300 sounds a lot! must be electric and soon PH will be in the same territory. At the time I engaged in some lobbying to TfL and others to A lack of rapid charging will, as night follows day, mean prices consider moving the number of charging points ahead of the to charge will increase. This will encourage those who can to take up of EVs so that there was an incentive to migrate fleets hold on to older vehicles with their inherent adverse air quality from petrol and diesel to electric. Two thousand to me seemed impacts, those who can’t to use hybrid plug-ins and vehicles a significant population of charging points that would give with range-extenders – in effect both vehicle types relying on a companies and individuals the confidence to move to EVs. combustion engine rather than using electric continuously. I think it was true to say that what transpired was that the 300 WHAT TO DO? target provided TfL with a very real challenge in itself. Planning So what can be done? Is leaving it to the market enough? Will it was a problem, supply was not available in places and there was work? With rapid charging points permanently populated, won’t always a background thought that either battery technology the obvious move to be to increase charging prices? would see a breakthrough or another technology, perhaps What about TfL? I believe it is true to say that some within hydrogen, would overtake EVs. This would enable the 300 to buy TfL were surprised to find that institution saddled with the task a significant amount of time for the market to pick up the slack. of locating and installing 300 points. TfL’s remit is to provide THE COST OF CHARGING Another concern amongst industry representatives at the time of the migration being discussed was the cost of electric charging and how that would be managed. There was certainly no appetite for managing cost at any meeting with the authorities that I attended and instead there was a vague reference to competition from the market. Predictably, costs are climbing. I note that in the TfL press release one supplier has an opening offer of 25p per kWh. According to the consumer champion Which? domestic supply is between 16-18p per kWh. If 25p is a special introductory offer then the standard tariff is going to be some distance north of 25p. While we might consider this situation a negative, in fairness the suppler will have to secure supply, collect money, presumably expand the network at their own risk, market to and acquire customers, manage customers and maintain the network. All that costs money, so there will be quite reasonably a cost that has to be recovered - assuming that suppliers are not in the business for the good of their health they need to make a profit. The nightmare scenario is of course that the cost at the
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transport in London - but now it finds itself responsible for in some way regulating electriciy tariffs for charging vehicles. That might not be the natural direction of travel. What about Government? Er, let’s move on. Local Authorities? I suspect not. If the industry is lucky, the cost of charging and the cost of the vehicle will largely align with the previous costs for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. If the industry wins the lottery there will be a small saving and the alternative doesn’t need spelling out. My advice is to enjoy the clean air and its health benefits and don’t expect any EV financial bonus. The cost of charging will become one of the industry’s banes in the years ahead and it is closely coming to a point where if anything is going to be done to get some kind of framework in place it needs to happen now. It would be a missed opportunity if the revolution from ICE to EV and the inherent health benefits from removing tailpipe emissions in London was muted through a reluctant cohort running ICE powered vehicles for as long as possible and any investment moving into plug-in hybrids. Is this one for London Councils to grasp?
FEBRUARY 2021
