Laying System by Gunnar Overby

Copyright © 2009 BetterBet Publishing All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works from this book in whole or in part. Please be aware that using any information in this book is at your own discretion. All betting involves risk. The author is in no way liable for any debts that you may incur with your betting. Please note that gambling and the use of information related to gambling is illegal in some countries. The author holds no responsibility for any reader using the information herein while it is against the local laws of the country they reside in.

INTRODUCTION Congratulations on purchasing a copy of 'Racing Secrets [EXPOSED]'. What you have in front of you is essentially a 'how to' guide for generating an excellent second income through horse racing. The size of that income depends entirely upon you. Some of you will read this manual, and think to yourself “Oh that sounds like a great way to make money” but never act upon it. Whether because of fear or pure laziness, I don't know. Others will push their worries aside, take on board the principles it contains and begin to create the wealth they deserve. I sincerely hope you are part of the second group. Of course everyone who reads this book will have different levels of skill and knowledge within the broad area of horse racing gambling. Many of you will find yourself coming back to different parts of the book time and time again in order to fully understand and internalise the principles taught. So whilst this book has the structure of a 'how to' guide, in that it contains step by step instructions, it should be noted that it's also meant to be used as a reference. You will no doubt find that you pick up some parts of the book almost straight away whilst other parts require several readings. This is perfectly natural and the key is to go at your own pace. It's no good hitting the exchanges with your hard earned money before you have mastered the art of laying as that is a sure fire way to lose money. This is why I strongly recommend that you begin by paper trading your selections rather than risking money on them straight away. By doing this you will become comfortable with laying without losing any real money. Due to the different experience levels of all the readers I have decided to structure this book into 5 parts. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

The first is more a guide to gambling in general and will be useful to the 'newbies' out there. In this section I will explain all the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the notion of value. In the second part of the book I go on to discuss laying horses in more detail. Also included is a basic user guide of Betfair to help you on your way. In the third part I will show you how to study race cards and form with particular reference to the Racing Post website. The fourth part is the system itself. It will teach you how to spot losing favourites in as little as half an hour a day. In the fifth and final part I offer further tactics to enhance your profits including professional staking and bank management strategies. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Let's crack on.

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION

MODULE 1: THE BASICS OF GAMBLING

Understanding Odds and Percentages

The Notion of Value

MODULE 2: THE BASICS OF LAYING

What Is Laying?

How To Use A Betting Exchange

MODULE 3: UNDERSTANDING THE RACING POST WEBSITE

Understanding Racing Cards

Understanding The Postdata table

Studying A Horse's Racing History

Other Useful Information

MODULE 4: HOW TO PICK A LOSING HORSE

Laying Horses – Flat Racing

Laying Horses – Jump Racing

MODULE 5: MAXIMISING PROFITS

Laying At The Right Price

Laying Non-Favourites

Professional Betting

102

FINAL THOUGHTS

105

MODULE ONE: THE BASICS OF GAMBLING This module is essentially for the newbies out there. For your benefit I'll quickly go through the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the importance of value in betting. Of course even if you have experience with gambling you still may find some useful information here, and I would advise everyone to at least skim read this part.

UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND PERCENTAGES Unless you have an understanding of odds and percentages you will never be able to generate any sort of income from horse racing betting so let's start here. Odds are referred to as the "price" for a horse in a race. The bookmakers set the prices according to what they believe is the horse's chance of winning. The more likely they think a horse is to win, the "shorter" the horse's price will be. That is to say the smaller the return will be for a punter who backs the horse to win. For example if a horse is priced at 4/1 then the bookie is saying that if that exact race was run 5 times that horse would win it once. Or to put it another way the horse has a 20% chance of winning. There are two different ways odds can be presented. Depending on which market the bookmaker targets. Odds are presented by either the British or European standard. BRITISH – FRACTIONAL ODDS The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g. 5/1 or "Five to One". When the first figure is higher than the second it is called "odds against". The amount won will be greater than the original stake. For example if the odds offered were 5/1 then for every £1 staked you would win £5 profit. When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called "odds on" and the amount of winnings will be smaller than the stake. For example if the odds offered were 4/6 then for every £6 staked you would win £4 profit. Below is an example of an on-line race card using British Odds; Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

EUROPEAN – DECIMAL ODDS Unlike the British fractions the European system deals in decimals. The figure quoted is the return a punter receives (including the stake) based on a bet of 1 unit. To transfer from British odds to European odds simply divide the first number by the second number and add 1. So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 ÷ 1 + 1 = 6) and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 ÷ 6 + 1 = 1.67) The betting exchanges all use the European odds system so it is something you are going to have to learn to recognise. Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds; Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

TABLE OF ODDS AND PERCENTAGES UK

EUR

2/7

1.29

77.80

9/5

2.80

35.71

14/1

15.00

6.67

3/10

1.30

76.70

15/8

2.87

34.78

16/1

17.00

5.88

1/3

1.33

75.00

19/10 2.90

34.48

18/1

19.00

5.26

4/11

1.36

73.33

2/1

3.00

33.33

20/1

21.00

4.76

2/5

1.40

71.43

21/10 3.10

32.26

22/1

23.00

4.35

4/9

1.44

69.23

11/5

3.20

31.25

25/1

26.00

3.85

1/2

1.50

66.67

9/4

3.25

30.77

28/1

29.00

3.45

8/15

1.53

65.50

23/10 3.30

30.30

33/1

34.00

2.94

4/7

1.57

63.64

12/5

3.40

29.41

40/1

41.00

2.44

8/13

1.65

61.90

5/2

3.50

28.57

50/1

51.00

1.96

2/3

1.67

60.00

13/5

3.60

27.78

66/1

67.00

1.49

8/11

1.73

57.89

27/10 3.70

27.03

80/1

81.00

1.23

4/5

1.80

55.56

11/4

3.75

26.67

100/1 101.00

5/6

1.83

54.55

14/5

3.80

26.32

9/10

1.90

52.63

3/1

4.00

25.00

10/11 1.91

52.38

10/3

4.33

23.08

1/1

2.00

50.00

7/2

4.50

22.22

21/20 2.05

48.78

4/1

5.00

20.00

11/10 2.10

47.62

9/2

5.50

18.18

10/9

2.11

47.37

5/1

6.00

16.67

6/5

2.20

45.45

11/2

6.50

15.38

5/4

2.25

44.44

6/1

7.00

14.29

13/10 2.30

43.48

13/2

7.50

13.33

27/20 2.35

42.55

7/1

8.00

12.50

11/8

2.37

42.11

15/8

8.50

11.76

7/5

2.40

41.67

8/1

9.00

11.11

3/2

2.50

40.00

17/2

9.50

10.53

8/5

2.60

38.46

9/1

10.00

13/8

2.62

38.10

10/1

11.00

9.09

17/10 2.70

37.04

11/1

12.00

8.33

7/4

36.36

12/1

13.00

7.69

2.75

0.99

THE NOTION OF VALUE The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of gambling by almost everyone bar the professionals. It is the very reason that bookmakers are able to profit on every horse in every race. Let me explain. If a horse's real chance of winning is 9/1 then it means that if that horse was allowed to run that exact same race ten times it would win once. The other nine times it would lose. If you put £1 on the horse for each of those ten races you would invest £10 in total. For the one race that the horse won you would receive £10 back from the bookmakers (including £9 profit and the £1 stake returned). So as you can see in the long run you would break even. Now imagine that same horse, with its 9/1 chance of winning, was priced at 15/1 by a bookmaker. Now for those ten races your investment would still be £10. But your return on that one winning race would now be £16 (including £15 profit and the £1 stake returned). This means you will have made £6 pure profit or more impressively a 60% return on investment. Of course the example above is very simplistic but the model works. Having value in your bets is the only way to reap long term profits. Now imagine how many times a bookmaker will make a mistake on one of its prices. Think of the resources available to Ladbrokes for example. They have teams of experts studying the form of every horse in every race, not to mention the computer programs that can crunch years of data in seconds. And all pitted against you – the punter. Now do you see how hard it is to beat the bookmaker? This is exactly the reason why so few people can earn a living from gambling. Furthermore the majority of people like to bet on favourites because they believe this will give them a better strike rate hence better profits. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

But guess what? Quite often the favourites offer the worst value out of any horse in the field. Let me explain. When pricing up horses the bookmakers include an over round on every horse so that each one represents value for them. To put it another way the bookmaker wants to be certain of making a profit in every race. It's up to the punter to find a horse that the bookie has priced up wrongly and which offers value. Very tough to do. Bookmakers work in percentages. Now if the percentage of all the runners in any given race put together is below 100% then theoretically we can back every horse in that race and be guaranteed a profit. Of course this never happens. Below is a screen print of a recent race at Kempton;

In the red box at the bottom you can see the total starting price is 112%. Which means if we backed every horse in the race the bookmaker is guaranteed a 12% profit. That said some horses in that race will have been value bets. If we look at the odds we can see that the race involved a short priced favourite. Now this favourite didn't even get a place so we can assume it wasn't a good favourite at all. The reason it was a short price was because clueless punters put money on it driving its price down. This is the key point - it's when the punters start putting money on horses that the value a horse offers changes the most. As I said before most people will back the favourite. The more money that gets put on a certain horse the lower its odds will go. Simple supply and demand. As the price gets shorter more and more people put money on it because it is such a 'sure thing', and the price just gets lower and lower. It's a vicious circle that creates less value for the punters and more profits for the bookmakers. However since the advent of the betting exchanges people have been able to copy the bookmakers and begin making bets with value already built in. In fact on the exchanges you have advantages over the bookmaker. You do not have to lay every horse in every race of the day. You get to hand pick the horses you lay which means you effectively just pick the cream of the bookmakers business to focus on. The bookies have done the hard work for you. You will use my system to pick the favourites with the least chance of winning. Then you simply watch the clueless punters drive the prices down which in turn gives you more and more value in your bets. With this strategy you are guaranteed value in all your bets and as such are guaranteed long term profits. In the next module I'll discuss the process of laying in more detail.

MODULE TWO: THE BASICS OF LAYING I briefly mentioned the process of laying in the previous module, and if that went over your head then you will need to read this module very carefully. Some of you will be well versed with laying on the betting exchanges and if you are then you can skip this section. For those of you that aren't I will use this module to explain the concept of laying in more detail. To lay horses you need to use an online betting exchange and so I have also included a short guide to Betfair, which is the biggest betting exchange at the time of writing.

WHAT IS LAYING? Laying horses is not as complicated as you might think. It certainly isn't as complicated as many people will let you believe. Laying a horse is like taking on the role of the bookie. It is simply betting that a horse won't win. So if you lay a horse and it loses the race your bets wins. If you lay a horse and it wins the race your bet loses. Lets run through a quick example so you understand this fully. We lay a horse called My Sally at odds of 3.00 (2/1 in English odds) for £10 If My Sally wins we have to pay out £20 If My Sally loses we win £10 As you can see the lower the odds the less we have to pay out. This is why my system focuses on laying short priced favourites. It offers us much less of a risk and higher value. To lay a horse you have to use a betting exchange. Unlike traditional betting where there is a bookmaker who sets the odds and punters who either take the offered odds or walk away, a betting exchange is simply a website where visitors can bet against other visitors on a range of events. All bets on the exchange have been placed there by users who either want to place a bet in the normal way (back), or offer odds to other punters (lay). Bets are matched between people with opposing views. Just as ebay matches up buyers and sellers via the internet, betting exchanges' matches up customers who want to strike a wager. You never know who you are betting against, your privacy and the confidentiality of your bets is maintained by a secure site. To become a member you simply have to register a debit or credit card and place Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

some funds into your account. Once you have done this you can start to use the account straight away. There are a number of betting exchanges available on the internet. Below I have listed a number of exchanges and their URL's. Betfair is by far the biggest betting exchange in the marketplace. It is the one I almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.

FREE £20 – If you would like £20 for free, simply sign up to Betfair using the following link and type in this code – HKVKENPGW – in the 'Refer and Earn' box. Your account will then be credited with £20.

http://www.betfair.com

The other betting exchanges include:

http://www.betdaq.com

http://www.betsson.com

http://www.ibetx.com

HOW TO USE A BETTING EXCHANGE The following instructions are designed to help you place lay bets using a betting exchange. I have chosen to use Betfair as an example as it is the exchange you are most likely to use. So head over to the site at: http://www.betfair.com If you haven't registered you will need to click on the 'Join Now' button as indicated below and fill in your details.

If you have simply fill in your username and password and click 'Login'.

The left hand side of the front page will look like this, and is a list of all the different sports covered. Click on 'Horse Racing – Today's Card' for a list of all the races coming up on that day. Of course if you are laying the night before the race you will click on 'Horse Racing'

The list of sporting options will change to show a list of horse races for the day, happening all over the world, sorted by time Simply scroll down and from the list of races click on the race you are laying in. Select the race by Time and Course. Do not select the race meeting to place as we are only betting on the horse not to win.

The race meeting will come up on the screen and will look confusing at first but it is quite straight forward.

To left hand side of the screen shows the information about the horse including its number, draw, name, colours and jockey. The first three columns of numbers under the blue tab 'Back' shows the odds for backing the horse to win, with the best odds in the blue squares. The decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with. Basically this means someone else has layed the horse at this price with the amount of money shown below. They are waiting for someone to accept their offer. Ignore these as we are not backing the horses. The second set of three columns show the odds for the horses losing (i.e. lay bets). Again the best odds are highlighted in the pink squares. As before the decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with. Basically this means someone else is requesting an opportunity to bet a certain amount at their preferred odds and is waiting for an offer to lay at that price. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

Click on the best odds (in the pink square) for the horse you have selected to lay. The right hand side of the website will now change, showing the horse's name, the odds selected and asking for the backers stake as follows:

You can change the odds to whatever price you are comfortable offering. Type in the amount you want to lay the horse for in the 'Backer's Stake' box and Betfair will automatically work out your liability (i.e. The amount you stand to lose if the horse wins). For advice on what odds to set and the amount to stake please see the chapters 'Laying at the Right Price' and 'Using a Betting Bank' later in this manual. Once you have done that click on submit in the bottom right hand corner of the page. You will then be asked to confirm your bet. Click on yes if you are happy with it. The screen will now change to show whether or not your bet has been matched. If the bet has been matched, then the bet is placed and you only have to wait for the results. If the bet is unmatched you have several options: 1. You may wait to see if someone else comes along who is prepared to accepts the odds you have specified. 2. You can change the odds in order to match a backer who is offering different odds. 3. Or you can cancel the bet. It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. This is where some of your stake has been matched with a backer, but some has not. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

Using Betfair is relatively easy once you get used to it. If you are still unsure of anything then Betfair offers comprehensive online help. For an easy to follow user guide simply go to the Betfair website, click on the help menu and then on the view our demo button.

MODULE THREE: UNDERSTANDING THE RACING POST WEBSITE In order to pick our lays we will be using the Racing Post. Although other papers include race cards in their horse racing sections we will not be using them. They do not contain enough information for us to confidently pick a losing horse. You can either buy the Racing Post newspaper everyday or use their website. I prefer the website just for convenience and also at the time of writing it is free. If you are picking your selections the night before then you will need to use the website. I imagine most people will be using the website and so I have included this section which details how to navigate around it. The website can be visited by clicking on the link → http://www.racingpost.com

UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS Once you enter the main site you will need to register to get access to the useful information. This is an easy process and should only take a minute or two. To see the race cards simply click on the tab 'Cards & Results' in the top left hand corner:

This will bring up the list of meetings and races scheduled for that day. Simply click on a specific race you will be presented with a screen similar to the one below:

Notice I have selected the 'AT-A-GLANCE CARD' as I find it the easiest on the eye. There are a couple of other options (standard card and form card) so you'll have to choose which one is best for you. The very top of the card shows the information about the race itself starting with date, time and course. Just under that in capitals you'll find the name of the race. After that in brackets you'll see the class of the race, the age restrictions and the prize money on offer. Then just under that is the going, the number of runners and the distance. OK now onto the main section of the card. There are ten main columns to the card (NO., FORM, HORSE, AGE, WGT, TRAINER RTF%, JOCKEY, OR, TS and RPR) and I'll go into more details on each of them below. NO. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

This is the number of the horse on the race card (also shown on the horse's saddle cloth). FORM These figures represent the finishing positions of the horse in its last 3 runs. A dash indicates the start of the current season, bold type indicates a result on a different surface to today's race, ex indicates an additional weight penalty to be carried, d indicates disqualified. HORSE Obviously this is the horse's name. The numerical figure after the name represents the number of days since the horse last ran. Immediately next to that there may be a letter 'p', 'F' or 'J'. A 'p' simply means the horse's last race was a pointer (a very low standard race not recognised by the BHB), an 'F' means the current race is a jumps race and that horse's last race was on the flat and a 'J' means the current race is a flat race and that horse's last race was over jumps. Now next to that (still in the HORSE column) there may be a 'D', 'C' or 'BF' in a box. A 'D' means the horse has won a race over that exact distance before in its career, a 'C' means that horse has won a race at that course before and 'BF' means that horse was a beaten favourite last time out. AGE This is obviously the age of the horse (horses' birthdays are officially deemed to occur on the 1st of January in the year of their birth). WGT The official weight the horse must carry (stones and pounds) in this particular race. TRAINER RTF% This is the name of the trainer. The number after the name represents the percentage of the stable's runners that have run to form in the last 14 days based on the Racing Post's Ratings. JOCKEY This is the name of the jockey riding the horse in this race. The number after the name represents any weight allowances due to age or inexperience expressed in pounds (to be deducted from the official weight). Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

OR This stands for Official Rating and is the official handicapper's rating of the horse's race speed. They are used to determine the weights horses will carry in handicap races. TS This stands for Top Speed and is the Racing Post's own assessment of each individual horse's race speed. The ratings are measured in pounds and aim to remove the effect of the going on the race times. RPR This stands for Racing Post Rating and literally is the Racing Post's own rating of the horse. The figure is expressed in pounds (lbs) so a horse rated at 125 is regarded as 5 lbs better than a horse rated at 120. That's the main race card explained. Underneath the main card you will find the betting forecast for the race. These odds are simply early prices (known as tissue prices). Everyday all the bookmakers will send their tissue prices to the Racing Post and the paper will take an average and these become the tissue price. They are a good indicator but the starting price odds will often be different.

UNDERSTANDING THE POSTDATA TABLE Underneath the main card you will see several headings; VERDICT, SPOTLIGHTS, STATS, POSTDATA, OR, RPR, TOPSPEED, SELECTIONS and TRENDS. We are interested in the postdata tab. Once clicked on this will bring up a table which is a good indicator of the ability of the horse. An example of the postdata table can be found below:

The important thing we want to look at here are the columns after the horses' names; TRAINER FORM, GOING, DIST.,COURSE, DRAW, ABILITY, RECENT FORM. TRAINER FORM This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form. One tick = in form Two ticks = in very good form ? = form open to question X =out of form - = no runners last 14 days GOING This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability on the relevant going. One tick = proven form on forecast going or on easy/fast ground if going is soft/firm Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

Two ticks = proven form on forecast going of soft/heavy or firm/hard ? = unproven on forecast going - = debut DIST. This is the Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability to cope with the race distance. One tick = proven form around this distance ? = unproven around this distance - = debut COURSE The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability over the race course. One tick = proven form on this course Two ticks = two or more course wins ? = unproven on this course - = debut DRAW The Racing Posts own analysis of the effects of the draw. One tick = good draw Two ticks = very good draw X = bad draw - = draw neither good nor bad ABILITY The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability. One tick = some form within last year Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top Three ticks = PM and TS both within 7lb of PM top ? = last run more than a year ago AND no PM rating X = no adequate form - = debut FORM The Racing Post's own assessment of the horse's most recent form. One tick = Some for within the last 60 days Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top achieved within last 60 days ? = last run more than 60 days ago - = debut Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

At the very bottom of the table you will see POSTDATA SELECTION. This is the horse which scores highest on all the attributes in the table.

STUDYING A HORSE'S RACING HISTORY To bring up a detailed history of a horse's races simply click on the horse's name in either the race card or the Postdata table. A new window detailed below with open up as below:

The page is divided into 3 clear sections. The top section gives us simple information about the horse like name, age, owner, trainer etc.

The middle section shows us the horse's history from a stats point of view. The final section details every race the horse has competed in. It is this section that is most useful to us as it gives us good information about the horse's abilities on different surfaces and distances. There are 8 columns here; DATE, RACE CONDITIONS, WGT, RACE OUTCOME, JOCKEY, OR, TS and RPR. DATE The date of the race. RACE CONDITIONS This column tells us the track, the distance, the going and the type of race. The distance is measured in furlongs (there are 8 furlongs in a mile). The type of race tells us what class it is (For example C5 means class 5 etc.), Hc means it was a handicap, H means it was a hurdle race, CH means it was a chase. The number at the end is simply the amount of prize money that was on offer. WGT This is the weight the horse had to carry in stones and pounds. 9-2 means 9 stones and 2 lbs. RACE OUTCOME This tells you the horse's position out of the number of runners, the distance it lost (or won) by, then the name, odds and weight of the winning horse. If you click on this column it brings up the full race result with full Racing Post analysis. This analysis can be a good source of information about how the horse ran. JOCKEY The jockey on board the horse OR Official Rating for that race. TS Topspeed for that race RPR Racing Post Rating for that race. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

OTHER USEFUL INFORMATION VERDICT and SPOTLIGHTS In addition to the race card, the postdata table and the horse's racing history there are a couple of other useful analysis tools on the Racing Post website. The first of these are the Racing Post's 'verdict' and 'spotlights' feature. These tabs can be found on the same row as the 'postdata' tab:

Clicking on the VERDICT tab brings up a the Racing Post's verdict on which horses to look out for in the race. Clicking on the SPOTLIGHTS tab will bring up the Racing Post's unique summary of each runner's career and prospects in the race. You'll often find some useful information in these 2 sections which will help you pick your selections. COURSE The Racing Post also provides good information regarding each course which you will find useful. Simply click on the 'courses' tab in the main menu and indicated below:

This will bring up a list of all the UK horse racing courses. Simply click on the one you wish to look at in further detail. This will bring up a separate window on that particular course. Now click on the tab 'MAPS & COURSE CHARACTERISTICS'. This will tell you useful information regarding the course e.g. whether it is right or left handed, flat or uphill and what type of fences it has (I.e. stiff or easy).

MODULE 4: HOW TO PICK A LOSING HORSE In this module I'm going to take you through the process of laying horses in both flat and jump races. I have included a little about each type of racing just to give you an overall picture of how racing works. To put it simply we are looking for what is termed a 'false favourite'. That is a horse that the betting public is putting money behind but which we think will not win. We will do this by looking at important data that the majority of people don't bother with. There are literally a hundred factors that affect the outcome of a horse race. Some people spend hours and hours studying as many of these as possible and still don't get anywhere. The majority of the punters, I call sheep, base everything on recent form. Anything from 80-90% of a price is going to be based on recent form. This is no coincidence. The bookmakers know that most of the money bet by punters is based on form in some way. Further to this media pundits and newspapers tipsters are obsessed with form. You'll often see a so called expert on TV going on about a horse that has great form. Punters see and read this and it sways their betting opinion. All this means is that if a horse is running well it will be massively overbet by the public and there is value to be had in laying it. A horse's “form” is simply a record of its recent performances. Basically has the horse been running well lately? Whilst it is obviously an important factor in the race outcome, it is certainly not the be all and end all. For example a horse that won last time out will always be overbet. Now I'm not saying that form doesn't count and I'm certainly not suggesting you lay every horse than won last time out. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

Another reason some horse's are 'false favourites' is because of their stable connections. This will usually be the case in races where the horses are inexperienced. So the lazy punter will simply put his money on the horse with the most high profile jockey or trainer. We, however, have to delve a little deeper and study the main factors beyond form that affect the result of a race. There are two types of horse racing in the U.K. - Flat Racing and National Hunt (Jump) Racing.

LAYING HORSES – FLAT RACING These races are run over distances ranging from 5 furlongs (5/8 mile or 1000m) to 20 furlongs (2 ½ miles or 4000m) and are started from stalls. As the name suggests there are no obstacles in flat racing. The flat season runs from mid-March to mid-November although flat races do still take place in the winter. Flat horses mature quickly and start running as 2 or 3-year-olds. Flat races are either run on turf or All Weather (AW) tracks. The AW tracks are comprised of sand and are a completely different kettle of fish to the turf tracks. There are several different types of races on the flat: Maidens: These are for horses that have never won a race before. Sellers: These races are usually involves pretty poor horses. The winner of the race is offered at an auction afterwards. Classified Stakes: This type of race is for horses who have run 3 or more times and won at least once. Conditions Races: Once a horse has won a maiden it can compete in conditions races. These races are more prestigious with better quality horses. Listed Races: Once a horse has won a conditions race it can be entered into a listed race. Group Races: These are the most prestigious races for a horse on the flat. There are three groups 1, 2 and 3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious and carry the most prize money. Handicaps: In handicaps all the horse's carry different weights depending on their ability as assessed by the official ratings. The better the horse the more weight it has to carry. Theoretically every horses has the same chance of winning. Nurseries: These are handicaps for 2 year old horses only.

The favourites only win about 28% of handicap races. This gives us plenty of scope for laying. Even more impressive are the stats for odds-on favourites in handicap races. Statistics show that if you had 'layed' every odds-on favourite in handicaps for the last 10 years you would have made a 20% return on your investment. This is a staggering statistic and is down to the public overbetting on the favourite and guaranteeing you value.

STEP 1: PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS Now I am going to take you through the essential details to look at when deciding which horse to lay. The seven factors below are the primary variables you will need to assess the favourite on. We need our horse to have a question mark concerning its ability on at least one of these factors. GOING The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; Hy = heavy, Sft = soft, GS = good-to-soft, Gd = good, GF = good-to-firm Fm = firm St = Standard (for All-Weather tracks). The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going. This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor. BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to the going. You will often find a horse given a tick when it doesn't deserve one. Double check by looking at the horse's racing history in more detail. DISTANCE Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. Some horses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races. As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance. You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is stepping up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant. Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you might have a horse with excellent form over 1 mile but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 12 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to distance. You will often find a horse given a tick when it doesn't deserve one. Double check by looking at the horse's racing history in more detail. BONUS TIP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 1.5 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

CLASS As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before. What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens. As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available. The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:

FLAT CLASS SYSTEM Cls 1 Group 1.......................... Group 2.......................... Group 3.......................... Listed incl 96-110 hcps.. Cls 2 Heritage open hcps........ nurseries........................ 86-110...........................

3yo+ £200k £90k £50k £28k £45k £18k

2yo £165k £70k £40k £23.5k £20k £13k

Cls 3 Cls 4 Cls 5 Cls 6 Cls 7

76-95..... 66-85..... 56-75..... 46-65..... 0-50.......

3yo+ £12.5k £8.5k £5k £3.5k incl regional bands A-D

2yo £11k £7k £5k £3.5k £2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst. We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or have a poor record running in that class. FIRST TIME RUNNER If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

laying. Usually the horse will be a 2 year old and will be running in a maiden. 2 year olds are very inexperienced animals and it is impossible to gauge how well they will react to their first outing on the race course. Some horses take to races like a duck to water whereas others need several races to get used to it all. The horse will be a short favourite due to its stable connections. Either it will have a popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Just because it has a tall reputation this does not mean it will run well. SURFACE As explain previously the conditions of the ground have a huge impact on a horse's running ability. Hence a change of surface for a horse is also a big factor. If a horse is running on sand or turf for the first time then we will look to oppose it if other factors are also in our favour. You will often find a consistent performer on the turf being a favourite on its AW debut but failing to live up to its reputation. It will often take time for a horse to familiarise itself with a new surface. Over the past 10 years laying horses on AW tracks has been more profitable than on the turf. The main reason for this is because punters try to apply turf form and ratings to the all weather. They will overbet a favourite if it has done exceptionally well on the turf. BONUS TIP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Laying favourites on the AW is most profitable during the winter. This is because the flat season has finished and a lot of the form horses move on to the AW with good reputations and short prices, only to get beaten because they are not used to the surface. WEIGHT Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

In non-handicaps the horses will often carry the same weight. However once a horse has won it will be penalised with a weight gain. This will make it harder for it to win again, although this is rarely transferred into the odds and great laying opportunities will present themselves. In handicaps weight is of the utmost importance. We need to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races in the class it is running at today. If it is carrying significantly more this time around (or if the horse has struggled carrying this weight in this class) then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out. BONUS TIP – We do not lay favourites with 7+lbs penalty on the AW tracks as they statistically tend to run well. COURSE UK horse racing courses have several characteristics that set them apart from one another. I'm sure you've heard of the term “Horses For Courses”. Basically some horses definitely prefer a certain type of track. There are 3 main characteristics that change from one course to another: Direction: Some courses are left handed and others are right handed. Turns: Some courses have tight turns and others have wide turns. Level: Some courses are flat, some are uphill and others are undulating and have a bit of both. The postdata table will tell you at a glance if this is a primary warning sign. Sometimes it may just be that the horse has never raced at this course before, but other times it will be more significant than that. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

For example a horse may naturally pull to the right and so when running on a left handed course this horse will be at a severe disadvantage. The Racing Post will often point this out in either their verdict or spotlights feature or they will mention in in their results analysis section. Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to course. Do a little bit more digging and you'll often find some very useful information.

STEP 2: EVALUATING THE OPPOSITION After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite. To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite. Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form. We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results include the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by. One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite. The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events. Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite. The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.

STEP 3: SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS This is the final part of the system. Once you have completed the first two processes you may have more than one qualifier. I use the following factors to build up a bigger picture of each race which helps me decide which favourite to lay. These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration. DAYS SINCE LAST RUN This used to be a crucial factor within horse racing but new and improved training methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 4 days of it's last run. If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practice'. However it is important to study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise caution. If a horse runs within 4 days of its last run there is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure. BONUS TIP - The exception to this rule is races on the AW tracks. Statistics show that favourites returning within 7 days on AW tracks have a good winning strike rate. DRAW The draw is simply the starting stall position of a horse. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

The lower the number the closer it is to the inside rail. On some tracks this can be quite an important factor. Below I have included a course-by-course list that sums up the generally regarded opinion of the draw factor at all thirty-four flat courses in Britain. Ascot Ayr Bath

Beverley Brighton Carlisle Catterick

Chepstow Chester

Doncaster

Epsom Downs

Folkestone

No significant advantage, although low numbers are favoured on the straight course in soft going. Low numbers favoured in big fields on the straight course, especially when the going is soft. Apparently little effect though the five-furlong course here is on a gradual left-hand bend which might be thought to favour low numbers. High numbers up to 8f-noticeably favoured in 5f races. It seems low favoured on soft ground. Low numbers favoured in sprint races but high numbers when the going is soft. High numbers seem to have an advantage in races up to one mile. Over five furlongs low numbers appear to be favoured except when the ground is soft when high numbers seem to have an advantage. 0ver six and seven furlongs low numbers are favoured. No marked advantage either side. Low draw numbers appear to be favoured in sprints, but the crucial factor here is a quick break irrespective of the draw. High numbers seem to be the best on the straight course, whereas low numbers used to have a noticeable advantage in big fields when the going is soft, but the effect is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. High numbers are strongly favoured over five furlongs, a bit less so over six furlongs. Low numbers seem best from 7f to 10f. Quite a significant advantage for high numbers in sprint races

Goodwood Hamilton Haydock Park Kempton Park

Leicester Lingfield Park

Musselburgh Newbury Newcastle

Newmarket Nottingham Pontefract Redcar Ripon Salisbury Sandown Park

Little effect although perhaps low numbers are best in sprints, though a fast start is equally important. Middle to high numbers best in sprints, especially on soft ground. High numbers favoured in sprints, especially when the going is soft. On the sprint course a high number is advantageous when stalls are on the far side (especially in softer ground), a low number when the stalls are on the stands side. High numbers usually best on round course. Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight course. Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints on the allweather course: on the turf course high numbers appear to be favoured. High numbers favoured in races up to 8f. No significant advantage, but perhaps high numbers best in large fields, especially in very soft ground. On the straight course horses drawn towards either rail seem to have an advantage when the going is normal, but low numbers are especially favoured on the straight course in soft/heavy ground. Little significant advantage over any distance on either the Rowley Mile or the July Course. High numbers favoured in sprint races when stalls on stands side, low numbers when stalls on far side. Low numbers favoured in sprint races. Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight course. Low numbers appear favoured on the straight course except when the going is soft/heavy. Low numbers tend to be favoured in sprint races on soft going. On the five-furlong course high numbers have an advantage when the ground is soft and when the stalls are placed on the far side; low numbers are favoured when the stalls are on the stands side.

Southwell Thirsk

Warwick

Wexford Windsor Wolverhampton Yarmouth York

No advantage in straight five furlongs: low draw favoured over six and seven furlongs. Significant advantage for high numbers on the straight course, more pronounced when the ground is fast. Low numbers best at 7f & 1m. Low numbers favoured in shorter races except when the going is soft, in which case the stands side tends to run faster. High numbers best. High numbers favoured in sprints. Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints. High numbers slightly favoured on the straight course, especially in large fields. Little effect either way. Perhaps low to middle numbers best on the straight track, especially when soft going prevails.

FIELD SIZE This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the better. The more runners there are the more chance the favourite will be held up by another horse. This factor is more important in maidens than other races. Often you will see inexperienced horses getting in each other's way in these races. IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER? If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay. Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than it deserves. JOCKEY

Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the race. To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be another factor in our favour. TOPSPEED On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle. SEX OF THE HORSE This has no bearing on the regular turf tracks but it can be important on the AW tracks. A relatively unknown fact is that female horses perform badly on the sand. If a short priced favourite is a filly or a mare, and other factors are conducive, it is ripe for laying. RECENT FORM Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is recent form. Generally the favourite will be in form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing position but how far it won or lost by. Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class this as out of form. This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous two runs and still be classed as out of form. Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this excellent form. I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to the favourite.

STEP 4 – BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay. I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way. I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have. Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box. However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total. For example a horse that hasn't run before will automatically have the most ticks but I don't lay them everyday. I like to look at the bigger picture. For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors. Also I tend to go where I can find the best value. For example if the horse with the most ticks is 7/2 but there is another horse I am sure will lose priced at 5/4 I will invariably lay the shorter priced horse. This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.

FLAT RACING COMPARISON TABLE PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS

Horse 1

Horse 2

Horse 3

Horse 4

GOING DISTANCE CLASS 1ST TIME RUNNER SURFACE WEIGHT COURSE OPPOSITION HOW MANY RIVALS SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS DAYS SINCE LAST RUN DRAW FIELD SIZE LTO WINNER? JOCKEY TOPSPEED SEX OF THE HORSE FORM TOTAL

EXAMPLE 1 – FLAT RACING LINGFIELD (AW) – FILLIES HANDICAP

Here we have a race where the forecast prices show 3 co-favourites. As long as the odds are low enough I love laying joint/co-favourites. What I look for is for one favourite to have a primary sign against its name and the others to have none. Let's look at each of the favourites in more detail. Straight away from the postdata table we can see that Millie's Rock has a warning Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

sign (distance) against its name. Neither Saucy nor Moon Crystal have any according to the postdata table. Now looking at the Racing Post verdict:

This talks about distance being a problem for Millie's Rock and also Saucy. However that being said Saucy is a distance winner (as shown by the 'D' after her name on the racing card) and so whilst she may be better over a longer trip she certainly doesn't deserve a primary warning sign for this. Lets look at Millie's Rock's racing history in more detail:

Today's distance is 1 mile (which equals 8 furlongs) and we can see that this horse hasn't raced over this distance for some time. Furthermore when it did the results were poor (13th out of 19 and 7th out of 12) and so we can confidently put down distance as a primary warning sign. Nothing else immediately comes to mind here. Class shouldn't be a problem as she has already won a class 5 handicap. At first weight doesn't seem to be a problem as this horse is carrying 9 stone 4 lbs today and has won with this weight before. However this is a handicap and as I explained before I like to check the weight the horse has carried in a given class. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

When Millie's Rock won carrying 9-4 she was racing in a class 6 event (today's is a class 5 race). She has carried a similar weight (9-3) in a class 5 event twice before and both times she has come up short finishing 10th (when third in the betting) and 5th (when a joint favourite). The most this horse has carried when running well in a class 5 handicap is 9 stone. So in today's race she is carrying 4 lbs more. This may not seem a huge amount but in an 8 furlong sprint this can make all the difference. For me the weight must be considered as a primary warning sign to go along with distance. Lets look at Saucy's racing history in more detail:

The above is not the whole history of the horse as it has run in many more races so the above just represents the most recent races. Class and weight shouldn't be a problem here. Although Saucy has never won a class 5 handicap like Millie's Rock she has been placed several times. Furthermore she was carrying extra weight in those previous races which certainly gives her a chance of going one better. The only major disappointment we can see if when she carried 8-8 in a class 5 at Wolverhampton and came a disappointing 11th. However if we look at that race analysis: Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

we can see that the course seemed to be the problem that day. In fact the Racing Post even states that this horse is more suited on Lingfield (today's track). This horse has a very good record at Lingfield which is why she has 2 ticks in the postdata table. So we can't find anything I would describe as a primary warning sign for Saucy. Now let's look at Moon Crystal:

We can immediately see that in her last race she won a class 5 handicap over the same distance and carrying more weight (9-0) than today's race (8-12). So no problem with weight or class here. So looking at all the co-favourites we can see that Millie's Rock would be the best one to lay. She has a question mark over the distance and weight. The other two favourites seem better suited to win this race especially Moon Crystal. Let's look at the result:

In the end none of the 3 won the race. Our horse ended up a finishing 4th. During the day the odds for Millie's Rock and Saucy narrowed meaning they were joint favourites. Strangely the odds on Moon Crystal increased even though she seemed best suited out of all the favourites.

EXAMPLE 2 – FLAT RACING WOLVERHAMPTON – MAIDEN STAKES

Here the favourite is Garra Molly. Let's look at the postdata table:

We can see Garra Molly has 2 primary warning signs; course and going. Let's check the horse's racing history:

The reason the going and the course are primary warning signs are because this is the first time this horse has run on an all-weather course. This is good news for us. Favourites coming from the turf onto the all-weather course over winter have poor strike rates. Also notice that distance wasn't an issue according to the postdata table but looking the racing history in more detail we can see that it should be. Today's distance is just over 9 furlongs â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a distance this horse has never raced over. Garra Molly has raced over 10 furlongs a couple of times but not with good results. The only time this horse has been placed is over the longer distances of 12 and 14 furlongs. Looking at the spotlight we can see the Racing Post agrees:

The key phrase to note here is “not crying out for a drop back in trip”. So all in all I think distance deserves to be a warning sign as well. Although this horse doesn't have a great record she has been placed in class 5 races twice before and so we can't include class as a primary warning sign. However weight looks like it may be an issue. Today she will be carrying 9 stone 11 lbs which is the most she has ever carried. Her previous highest was 9-6 and in that race she was soundly beaten. That was in a handicap though. Today's race is a maiden and the most weight this horse has carried in a maiden is 8-12 so carrying almost a stone more is another big issue. As for secondary warning signs, this horse hasn't raced for 120 days and so fitness will be an issue. In conclusion this horse has plenty of warning signs against its name. It has never race on sand before and so going and course are problems. Added to that are distance and weight and so we really have a weak favourite here. Let's look at the opposition:

The next in the betting is Air Maze. She has a primary warning sign over distance as the furthest she has run before is 8 furlongs. But looking at the Racing Post's analysis of the previous race:

We can see that the Racing Post believe this horse will be better running a longer distance. So while step up in distance is still a primary warning sign it seems it may even benefit this horse. Class shouldn't be a problem for this horse as she has been placed twice in class 5 events before. Furthermore this time round she is carrying even less weight (8-4) than she did in her previous races (8-8) where she was only narrowly beaten. So overall Garra Molly looks to be an excellent lay and Air Maze looks to be her Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

major rival. The result:

During the day the odds on Garra Molly lengthened slightly to 2/1. It didn't start the race as favourite but was still a good low price lay. Unsurprisingly Air Gaze went off as favourite and eventually won the race.

LAYING HORSES – NATIONAL HUNT (JUMP) RACING In National Hunt racing the horses are made to jump a number of obstacles throughout the course. The courses are at least 2 miles (16 furlongs) long. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't run until they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Jump racing goes on all year round but its main season runs from November until the end of April. There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers. Steeplechases (Chases) - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences' which vary in size. These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The Grand National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U.K. Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring about 3 feet 1 inch in height. In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races. Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the field. Maidens: As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before. Novices: These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When a horse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season but it has to carry a weight penalty. Bumpers: Also called National Hunt Flat Races. These are special flat races for young jump horses. Point to Point Races (or Pointers) - These races are run over fences on designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn. This is basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdles and fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races.

STEP 1: PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS Many of the variables for jump racing are similar to that of flat racing but I will take you through them one by one as there are subtle differences. GOING The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; Hy = heavy, Sft = soft, GS = good-to-soft, Gd = good, GF = good-to-firm Fm = firm St = Standard (for All-Weather tracks). The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going. This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor. BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. BONUS TIP 2 – Watch out for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time on soft Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

ground. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and the sticky soft ground will test the horse's stamina. Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to the going. You will often find a horse given a tick when it doesn't deserve one. Double check by looking at the horse's racing history in more detail. DISTANCE Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. In jump racing you don't get sprints but the races still vary in distance. Some horses are better at the medium length races of 2 miles while others prefer longer distances (3 miles+) that are a real test of stamina. You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Either a horse that is stepping up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the medium distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you might have a horse with excellent form over 2 miles but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 20 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 20 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 4 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay. BONUS TIP 2 – Distance is a particular warning for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and jump races are usually longer than flat races so the horses' stamina will be severely tested. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to distance. You will often find a horse given a tick when it doesn't deserve one. Double check by looking at the horse's racing history in more detail. CLASS As seen above there are different categories of races depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before. What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in its first conditions race simply because it won its maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens. As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available. The table below summarises the different classes for jump races: JUMP CLASS SYSTEM Cls 1 Grade 1...................................... Grade 2 incl limited hcps........... Grade 3 open hcps..................... Listed ........................................ Cls 2 Open hcps ................................. 0-140+........................................ Cls 3 0-115/135.................................. Cls 4 0-100/115.................................. Cls 5 0-85/95...................................... Cls 6 HuntCh & NHF...........................

Chase £100k £50k £50k £25k £23k £20k £10k £5.5-10k £3.5-5.5k £1.6 – 3.5k

NovChs Hurdle £50k £75k £32k £40k £45k £20k £22k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k

NovHur NHFlat £40k £25k £28k £20k £18k

£15k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k £2.5-3.2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst. We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horses which have had bad results in a certain class.

FIRST TIME HURDLER If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying. Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for the first time. Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to its first hurdle race. Even if the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like a hurdles race before. Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections. Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically gets favouritism. BONUS TIP – First time hurdlers will be competing in novice hurdle events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles. FIRST TIME CHASER If a horse is a short favourite on its first chase then again that is a great opportunity for laying. Any horse that chases will have been a hurdler at some point. But the fences in a steeplechase are a lot bigger than hurdles and even if a horse is a great hurdler it may not make a great chaser. If we see a short favourite who has never chased before have ourselves a laying opportunity. BONUS TIP – First time chasers will be competing in novice chase events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to chasing. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.

WEIGHT The weight the horse is carrying is another factor we need to assess. Over jumps this factor is important in non-handicaps as well. Once a horse wins a novice event it is allowed to compete in other novice races for the rest of the season. However it must carry a weight penalty. This gives up lots of laying opportunities. Often a horse who has won a novice event will be favourite for the next race due to its form. However many punters do not take into account the extra weight it is carrying and blindly back it. Often you will see these favourites losing their next race. As with flat racing, weight is very important in handicaps. We need to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races in the class it is running at today. If it is carrying significantly more this time around (or if the horse has struggled carrying this weight in this class) then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out. COURSE UK horse racing courses have several characteristics that set them apart from one another. I'm sure you've heard of the term “Horses For Courses”. Basically some horses definitely prefer a certain type of track. There are 3 main characteristics that change from one course to another: Direction: Some courses are left handed and others are right handed. Turns: Some courses have tight turns and others have wide turns. Level: Some courses are flat, some are uphill and others are undulating and have a Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

bit of both. The postdata table will tell you at a glance if this is a primary warning sign. Sometimes it may just be that the horse has never raced at this course before, but other times it will be more significant than that. For example a horse may naturally pull to the right and so when running on a left handed course this horse will be at a severe disadvantage. The Racing Post will often point this out in either their verdict or spotlights feature or they will mention in in their results analysis section. Don't simply take the postdata table at first hand when it comes to course. Do a little bit more digging and you'll often find some very useful information. BONUS TIP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Look out for horses that are jumping for the first time on courses with stiff fences. If there are horses in the field who are already used to jumping over stiff fences then the favourite could be a good lay opportunity.

STEP 2: EVALUATING THE OPPOSITION After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite. To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite. Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form. We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by. One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite. The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events. Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite. The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.

STEP 3: SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS Once we have found our favourites with at least one question mark over their ability we need to choose which one we are going to lay. We do this by considering a second level of factors. These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration. DAYS SINCE LAST RUN This used to be an important factor within horse racing but new and improved training methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 7 days of it's last run. If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practise'. However it is important to study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise caution. If a horse runs within 7 days of its last run it here is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure. FIELD SIZE This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the better. This has more significance over jumps than it has on the flat. With National Hunt racing the more horses there are jostling for position over the jumps the more chance there is of horses bringing each other down. Like on the flat this factor is more important in races where there are inexperienced Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

horses racing together such as novice hurdles and novice chases. IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER? If the favourite won its last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay. Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than it deserves. JOCKEY Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the race. To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be another factor in our favour. This is another factor that is more important in National Hunt racing due to the nature of jumping over obstacles. The jockey and the horse have to be in tune or there is a high risk the horse will fall or refuse to jump. TOPSPEED On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle. AGE OF THE HORSE Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

Horses tend to jump better the older they get. The younger horses have more erratic results and have a greater chance of falling. Horses 5 years old and younger get a black mark here. RECENT FORM Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is recent form. Generally the favourite will be in form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing position but how far it won or lost by. Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper. We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class this as out of form. This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous two runs and still be classed as out of form. Of course if a favourite has won its last two runs then that is considered very good form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this excellent form. I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to the favourite.

STEP 4: BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay. I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way. I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have. Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box. However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total. For example a horse that hasn't run before will automatically have the most ticks but I don't lay them everyday. I like to look at the bigger picture. For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors. Also I tend to go where I can find the best value. For example if the horse with the most ticks is 7/2F but there is another horse I am sure will lose priced at 5/4 I will invariably lay the shorter priced horse. This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.

JUMP RACING COMPARISON TABLE PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS

Horse 1

Horse 2

Horse 3

Horse 4

GOING DISTANCE CLASS 1ST TIME HURDLER 1ST TIME CHASER WEIGHT COURSE OPPOSITION HOW MANY RIVALS SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS DAYS SINCE LAST RUN DRAW FIELD SIZE LTO WINNER? JOCKEY TOPSPEED AGE OF HORSE FORM TOTAL

EXAMPLE 1 – JUMP RACING MUSSELBURGH – NOVICE CHASE

In this race we have a short priced favourite, Striking Article. Straight away from the postdata table we can see that this horse has 2 primary warning signs; distance and course. Let's look at the horse's racing history in more detail:

We can see here that distance is definitely a primary warning sign. This horse has raced all but one of its races at shorter distances (16 and 17 furlongs). When it did race over a longer distance it was very disappointing. Class looks to be another primary warning sign. Today's race is a class 3 race novice chase and we can see that in its last race this horse also ran a class 3 novice chase where it came last, a massive 102 lengths behind the winner. The only chase the horse has done well in was a class 5 event which is two classes lower than today's race and will not have had the same standard of opposition. The horse was entered into a class 1 chase before that so the stable obviously have high hopes for this horse which is probably why it is going off as favourite. It didn't perform particularly well so lets look at the Racing Post's comments for this Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

race:

There are a couple of interesting things to note here. Firstly that the horse made several jumping mistakes which obviously aids our cause. But more importantly is the last sentence where it mentions that the horse jumped to his left. This horse had a question mark in the postdata table under course and this will be why. Today's course is right handed and as this horse tends to jump left this will be a major disadvantage. So far we have 3 primary warning signs in distance, course and class. The only secondary warning sign for this horse is recent form. It has finished well behind the leader in its last two runs. Let's take a look at the opposition to see if we can find some horses with the ability to beat the favourite. The second favourite is Hernando's Boy and looking at the postdata table it doesn't have any weaknesses here. It's also important to note that this horse is a course and distance winner which is great for us. Let's look at his racing history:

This horse has had quite a few more runs that the favourite. The favourite had won a class 5 chase but this horse has won a class 4 which is a big plus for us. The horse ran a class 3 chase in its last race and fell so let's look at this race in more detail:

Another useful thing to note is that this horse is suited by right handed tracks, which today's course is, so this is another plus for us. All in all there aren't really any primary warning signs for this horse. The third favourite is Watch My Back. Glancing at the postdata table we can see that like the favourite this horse has a question mark over the course. Let's look at the racing history in more detail:

Immediately we can see that this horse won a class 3 chase in its last race. This is good news for us and the weight penalty it has been given is only 2 lbs so it hasn't been penalised too much. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

In conclusion we have a favourite with 3 warning signs against its name; distance, course and class. We also have two other horses in the race who have fewer warning signs against them and should be able to beat the favourite if they run well. We have one horse who has already won a class 3 chase and another horse who is perfectly suited to the course. So why is Striking Article favourite? This will most probably be because of the trainer, Howard Johnson, and his expectations for this horse. Although the horse is pretty inexperienced it has already competed in a class 1 event and looking at the horse's entries in the racing post:

we can see that the horse was going to be entered in a prestigious Grade 2 event. What we have here is a popular trainer with a horse he obviously has high expectations for. So the betting public, most probably following advice from paper tipsters, back the horse expecting it can win. But through our analysis we can see that this hasn't proven anything yet and there are horses in this race that can beat it. At such low odds we have great value in our lay bet. The Result:

Our horse started the race as a 6/4 favourite but only came second making our lay successful. The race was actually won by the 10/1 outsider. This wasn't even a horse that we identified as a threat to the favourite. But as we see time and time again with racing its all about how the horses run on the day. Let's look at the race analysis for the favourite:

Our analysis was spot on. The course was one of the primary warning signs we identified and it seems to have been the reason he lost today.

EXAMPLE 2 – JUMP RACING HEREFORD – HANDICAP CHASE

Here we have a short priced favourite called Conny Nobel. Let's look at the postdata table.

The favourite has two warning signs; distance and course. Let's look at its race history:

Straight away we can see that distance is definitely a primary warning sign. The horse has only run this far once before where it was very disappointing. The horse has previously raced at this course and it was pulled up. The good result the horse did have last time out was around a left handed course (today's is right handed) and so course is a definite primary warning sign. The horse won a class 5 race in its last race and so class won't be a problem. However in that race the horse was carrying 10 stone and 5 pounds whereas today it will be carrying 11 stone 6 pounds. This is the most the horse has ever carried and this big jump in weight is definitely classed as another primary warning.

This horse has come from flat racing and has only really had one good performance, that being the victory in its last race. The horse won by a big margin so let's look at that race analysis to see what we can find:

So we can see that the race the horse won was described as a 'weak handicap'. In conclusion we have a horse with 3 primary warning signs; distance, course and weight. In fact this horse has come from flat racing and is relatively new to jumping. In 5 jump races it has performed poorly on 4 occasions. The horse did have a good performance last time out but that was in a weak maiden and it has been penalised for that with a massive rise in weight. At low odds this is a definite lay. As for secondary warning signs the one that stands out is days since last run. This horse last ran just 2 days ago and will surely not have recovered fully and furthermore he has questions marks over the long distance for this race. So stamina could definitely be a problem for this horse. The result:

Our horse actually came last. A great result! Let's look at the Racing Post's analysis of the race:

As we predicted before the race the penalty Conny Nobel had to carry was far too much to justify being such a short priced favourite. We also predicted this race was too soon after his last one and the Racing Post agrees. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

MODULE FIVE: MAXIMISING PROFITS OK so you've learn how to pick losing horses now its time to pick up some techniques which will help you to maximise your profits. In this section I'm going to talk you through various staking plans as well as revealing how to get the best price for your lay.

LAYING AT THE RIGHT PRICE We have discussed how to find horses to lay now we must focus on what price to lay at. If we are too generous with our odds we will be destroying any value we have in the bets. Put simply the best time to place your bet is when you can get the best possible price. This may seem too obvious to state but I continually see supposed 'experts' claiming that the best time to lay a horse is just before the race starts. Sure if the horse's priced is drifting in then it is best to place the bet as close to the off as possible as you'll get the best price. However you'll also find that some of the favourites you pick to lay will drift in price throughout the day and if you wait too long will have to lay a too high a price. In fact quite often your selection will drift so much in the betting that it won't even start the race as favourite. The odds for a horse race will appear on Betfair the evening before the race starts. Depending on liquidity these prices will roughly match the tissue prices on the Racing Post website. The prices will begin to change a bit more in the morning as people are placing bets before work and many are following paper tipsters. The most money goes onto a horse race in the “liveshow” period before a race starts. This takes place around 10 minutes before the off. How you proceed is really up to you. You can either place your bets at the same time everyday or you can try to second guess the market and try to get the best price everyday. There's no right or wrong way it all depends on the individual. After having placed lay bets for a while you may notice a pattern in your prices. For example are the horses you pick steamers or drifters, or does the price stay relatively stable.

Obviously if you find that you are continually picking drifters then you will want to place your bets either the night before or on the morning of the race and vice versa. For those of you that work 9-5 and cannot place bets at the off then I would advise using a bot to place your bets for you. A bot is a software programme that can automatically bet for you using the criteria that you give it to follow. In the early days they were quite unreliable but nowadays they are very stable and their use is wide spread. If you use a bot you will simply select the race, the horse, and the stake and the bot will place your bet for you a pre-determined number of minutes before the race starts. There are quite a few different bots out there, some more trust worthy than others. I have tried nearly all the them but the industry standard is The Grey Horse Bot. It has been developed by professional gamblers and has plenty of features with more being added all the time. I can highly recommend it and you can check it out by following the link below: http://www.racingsecretsexposed.com/GreyHorseBot.htm

LAYING NON-FAVOURITES Sometimes the horse you pick to lay may not start the race as favourite. This is fine. Quite often I find myself laying 2nd or even 3rd favourites. It all comes down to price and value. If I think I can lay a horse at a good price that provides value then I will even if it is not favourite. In some races the favourite may change during the day and it's possible for different people to pick a different favourite to lay in a particular race. Again this is fine as long as you are getting good value. Let's look at an example: SANDOWN - HANDICAP HURDLE

If you were laying the night before or in the morning of the race you would see that Captain Tidds is the forecast favourite so you would focus on him. Looking at him we can see from the postdata table that he has two primary warning signs against his name (going and course). Looking at his racing history:

Distance being a primary warning sign is backed up here. This horse has won one previous race and been placed in another and both times the going was heavy. When the horse has raced over firmer ground it has done poorly and today's going is good-to-soft. Class shouldn't be a problem as he has already won a class 4 handicap chase. Weight may be a problem though as he has been given a 5lb penalty due to that win. He is carrying more weight that he ever has in his entire racing history. Today he is carrying 11-9 and when carrying his previous highest (11-7) he ended up falling so maybe the weight was too much. So we have 3 primary warning signs here in distance, going and weight.

If you were placing your lay bets the night before racing you may well ave picked this horse to lay and may have got a good price in doing so. However during the day of the racing the odds on this horse drifted all the way out to 8/1. If you had managed to lay the night before or in the morning of the race you may have been able to get a great price. However if you were laying just before the race you could have also profited from this race. You see Green Belt Elite steamed all the way in from having an 8/1 tissue price to a starting price of 2/1 and so if you were laying just before the race began you would have looked at this horse. From the postdata table we see that this horse has 1 primary warning sign against its name and like a lot of other horses in the race this is due to the course. Looking at this horse's racing history:

Class may be another problem here as when the horse has previously raced in this class it finished a massive 33 lengths behind the winner. So that makes it 2 primary warning signs in class and course. As for secondary signs we can see that a new jockey is on board, the horse is only 5 years old and its recent form is poor. As for opposition there are plenty of other horses with the same number of primary warning signs and this seems to be a very hard race to predict. Conclusion If you were picking your selection the night before you would have been able to get a good price on Captain Tidds as as the price drifted you would have felt more confident about your bet. If you were picking your selection just before the race you would have felt confident on laying Green Belt Elite. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BetterBetPublishing.com- ÂŠ 2009 All Rights Reserved

This seems to be a very average horse and I can't for the life of me work out why it steamed in from 8/1 forecast price to a starting price of 2/1. I can only imagine it was tipped by a well known tipster or was talked up by the trainer on the day of the race. Now many people would not have wanted to lay this horse because its price came in drastically. You often hear of experts taking about following the money. The theory being if a horse's odds fall dramatically then someone must know something about this horse that the masses do not. You'll often find in this case that regular punters will jump on it and by backing it will push the price down further. I often take the opposite view. Our analysis has shown that it has holes in its form and so we shouldn't be sacred of laying it. The forecast price is decided the day before when all the different bookmakers fax through their prices to the Racing Post. So the day before the bookmakers thought 8/1 was a fair price for this horse which means being able to lay it at 2/1 gives us excellent value. The result:

100

Both lays would have been successful as the race was won by a 14/1 shot.

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PROFESSIONAL BETTING If you want to create a serious income stream from betting you must treat it as a business. It should never be a case of taking £10 out of your wallet, putting it on a horse and spending the winnings down the pub (if you are lucky enough to win that is). Of course we can all have fun bets but they should be the exception rather than the rule. If you want to achieve and maintain healthy profits you must follow the following three step plan: 1.) Set up a betting bank 2.) Stake correctly 3.) Log and monitor your results A betting bank is simply a sum of money you have set away from your other finances just for the purpose of betting on horses. Money should not be withdrawn from it until it is healthy enough to sustain itself. In time if you are following a good system your bank will be large enough for you to be able to draw an income from your betting. The only way you will be able to grow this bank substantially is through sensible staking. By this I mean not simply wagering any old amount on a horse. Staking must be methodical and mathematical. That is the only way the bank is protected long term. You need to find a staking plan and stick to it. With laying you have two options, either: 1.) fixed stakes or 2.) fixed liability. Before you decide which one to go with you need to calculate your maximum Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

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liability. This is the most you can lose if your horse wins. Most people use 5% of the betting bank. Of course if you have a high strike rate you can increase this but 5% is a good starting point. 1.) Fixed Stakes Laying With fixed stakes you bet the same amount of money whatever the odds of the horse. This means the amount you lose if the horse wins will differ from bet to bet. For example using the 5% rule, if you had a bank of £2000, your maximum liability would be £100. To work out your stakes you need to decide what is the maximum price you want to lay at. Using my system I personally don't lay anything over 6.0 on the exchanges. So to work out the stakes simply divide the maximum liability by the maximum price = 100/6 = 16.67. Hence you stake £16.67 on every horse. So if the horse was evens you would stand to lose £16.67. If the horse was 2/1 you would stand to lose £33.33 If the horse was 3/1 you would stand to lose £50 2.) Fixed Liability Laying The other option is fixed liability. With this option you risk your maximum liability on every horse. If your maximum liability is £100 then: If the horse was evens you would stake £100. If the horse was 3/1 you would stake £33.33 I personally prefer to use the fixed liability method. And I recalculate my maximum liability daily. As you can see with this option the lower the odds the more you stand to make. Which is why laying short priced favourites is the best system for making money. Racing Secrets [EXPOSED] – BetterBetPublishing.com- © 2009 All Rights Reserved

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I have come across laying systems in the past that have suggested only laying horses over 10/1. This is nothing short of idiotic. The arguments thrown out by the writers of these systems are that you can achieve a great strike rate because the horses are such a long price. Whilst this is true often it can take only one winner to wipe out weeks of growth in the bank. The best system to follow when laying is one with a high strike rate that focuses on short priced horses. This is exactly what I had in mind when I designed my system. And this is why my system is the most profitable laying system on the web. The final part of professional betting is keeping records of all your bets. This is so you can analyse a system and see how it is performing and it also means you know how much is in your betting bank at any one time. I prefer to log all my results on a spreadsheet but you can use old fashioned pen and paper if you wish.

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FINAL THOUGHTS In this manual you have everything you will ever need to begin successfully laying horses. If you have no experience with horse racing you might want to re-read several sections of this ebook until you understand everything fully. I would wholly recommend that you begin by paper trading and don't risk any money for the first week. This will give you time to get used to the practice of laying horses. Don't forget you will lay winning horses from time to time. This is inevitable. When it happens study the race in more depth to see if there was anything you missed. If there was, learn from it and move on to the next lay. Learning how to lay favourites is a lot like learning to play a musical instrument. It takes time and practise to succeed. You wouldn't expect to learn to play the piano in a week and so you should expect to be a professional gambler in a week either. But with the right time and effort you will soon be on your way to earning a small fortune laying horses. Good luck and enjoy your extra income! Kris Jackman BetterBet Publishing

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