INNERSANCTUMVECTORN360™|POWER DYNAMICS

INTERVIEW WITH PROF. GIANCARLO ELIA VALORI

Thematic Section: China's Evolving Global Role

In the realm of international relations, the evolution of China's global role stands as a pivotal narrative. Through historical epochs like the Peace of Westphalia and the Congress of Vienna, the undercurrents of power equilibrium and the influence of major players have persisted. These principles find continuity in China's contemporary journey, marked by its transition from limited capacities to a position of substantial economic and strategic clout.

China's narrative intertwines with contrasting worldviews. The United States champions universal values, while China seeks to inspire emulation through its ancient civilization and economic achievements. These narratives intersect with core interests, shaping a complex relationship marked by mutual prudence.

China's proactive participation in international organizations amplifies its evolving global role. The challenge ahead is merging strategic competition with cooperative coexistence. Can these global giants, while guarding their security interests, forge a shared understanding that sustains global stability amid strategic rivalry?

Honorable de l’Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France, Honorary Professor at Peking University

This exploration delves into the historical tapestry that frames China's rise on the global stage. It illuminates the intricate dance between established powers and rising contenders, presenting questions that unravel the essence of China's vision, the United States' response, and the delicate balance between competition and coexistence that charts the course ahead.

Question Restrepo: "What is China's overarching strategic vision for its global role, considering its growing engagement in international organizations like the United Nations and the establishment of institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank? How do you anticipate this vision evolving in the near future?"

Response Valori: On 15 May 1648, the first treaty of the Peace of Westphalia was signed in Osnabrück by the Protestant princes, marking the end of the conflict between Sweden and the Habsburg Empire. Later, on 24 October 1648, the Catholic princes signed two additional treaties in Münster.

Westphalia - and, to an even greater extent, the Congress of Vienna (1 November 1814 - 9 June 1815) that replaced itwas also based on three pillars, namely multipolarism, a balance of powers and a concert of powers, which mainly meant the importance of the great powers: Austria, Prussia,

Russia and the United Kingdom. In many respects, the same principles were characteristic of the Yalta-Potsdam system, which determined relations between the two superpowers during the Cold War. The rules of international law were respected mainly because there was a force behind them that could not be ignored. This is the reason why peace reigned on the European continent, and the interests of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America clashed mainly in the countries on the peripheryi.e., by shifting the Second Thirty Years' War (1914-1945) to the countries of the Third World and the Balkans, so that the war industries in the West and in the East would anyway have their theatres and market outlets. Little could the People’s Republic of China do by calling the former socialimperialists and the latter imperialists tout court, and branding them both as hegemonists.

As stated by Henry Kissinger, when in the early 1970s the People's Republic of China embarked on its re-entry into the international diplomatic system at Zhou Enlai’s initiative and, at the end of that decade, on its full entry into the international scene thanks to Deng Xiaoping, its human and economic potential was vast, but its technology and actual power were relatively limited.

China's growing economic and strategic capabilities have

meanwhile forced the United States to measure up - for the first time in its history - to a geopolitical competitor whose resources are potentially comparable to its own.

Each side sees itself as an unicum, but in a different way. The United States acts on the assumption that its values are universally applicable and will eventually be adopted everywhere. China, on the other hand, expects that the uniqueness of its ultra-millennial civilisation and impressive economic leap forward will inspire other countries to emulate it so as to break free from imperialist domination and show respect for Chinese priorities.

Both the US missionary impulse based on a sort of “manifest destiny” and the Chinese sense of grandeur and cultural eminence - of China as such, including Taiwanimply a kind of subordination-fear of each other. Due to the nature of their economies and high technology, each country is affecting what the other has hitherto considered its core interests.

In the 21st century China seems to have embarked on playing an international role to which it considers itself entitled by its achievements over the millennia. The United States, on the other hand, is acting to project power, purpose, and diplomacy around the world to maintain a

global balance established in its post-war experience, responding to tangible and imaginary challenges to this world order.

For both sides’ leaders, these security requirements seem evident, and are supported by their respective publics. Yet security is only part of the grand discourse. The key issue for the planet's existence is whether the two giants can learn to combine the inevitable strategic rivalry with a concept and practice of coexistence. It is for this reason that China is increasingly active within international organisations to stabilise its role on the evolving global scene.

Thematic Section 2: Unveiling China's Dual Space Aspirations

China's foray into the realms of space research and exploration has ignited both admiration and skepticism on the global stage. This dichotomy stems from the multifaceted nature of China's endeavors, which encompass not only the pursuit of scientific advancement but also the potential implications for geopolitical dynamics. At its core, China's space program is a testament to humanity's innate curiosity and thirst for knowledge. However, it's important to recognize that the significance of these endeavors extends beyond scientific curiosity. The narrative of space exploration carries a duality that resonates with historical echoes of militaristic competition, as well as the aspiration for cooperative progress.

Delving into history, we find that the trajectory of space exploration has often been intertwined with geopolitical rivalries. From the Cold War space race to contemporary debates about satellite capabilities, the strategic implications of space technology have remained significant. This context raises pertinent questions about China's intentions and the potential military applications of its space program.

While the quest for resources and strategic advantage remains a tangible aspect of China's space initiatives, there's also a noteworthy shift towards collaborative exploration and shared sustainability. The significance of space research for our planet's future becomes apparent when we consider the depletion of mineral resources and water on Earth. China's endeavors, while rooted in history's competitive spirit, seem to be fostering a recalibration of priorities.

In the 21st century, China's space activities symbolize a complex interplay of aspirations: the pursuit of scientific progress, the potential for resource acquisition, and the prospects of militaristic positioning. The narrative has evolved, not just as a departure from militaristic competition, but also as an opportunity for collective progress. China's gaze towards the stars encapsulates both the potential for collaborative exploration and the strategic positioning that's emblematic of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.

In this thematic section, we endeavor to navigate this nuanced terrain, exploring the intersection of historical context, geopolitical considerations, and humanity's quest to extend its reach beyond our planet. We aim to shed light on the intertwined motivations that drive China's space program, shedding light on the complex spectrum of possibilities that these endeavors entail.

Question Restrepo: Exploring China's Space Program and Its Broader Context

China's advancements in its space program, particularly its potential military applications like anti-satellite weapons and space-based surveillance systems, have drawn attention on the global stage. Could you provide your insights on how these developments fit into the historical backdrop of strategic competition and technological advancements, considering instances like the arms race of the Cold War era and President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative?

Giancarlo's Response: Let's begin by acknowledging that the accomplishments of the advanced Soviet missile industry in the 1950s-1960s and the refined US military technology of the 1960s-1970s were driven by the intense arms race rather than altruistic motives. To dismiss this reality is akin to jesting in a casual setting. This dynamic also characterizes President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative in the 1980s. President Reagan, at least, refrained from using benevolent rhetoric in describing it as sciencedriven or in service of humanity's welfare.

The concept of anti-satellite weapons and space-based surveillance, as you've mentioned, isn't novel and has been present for decades. At present, the People's Republic of China is equipped to navigate space, signaling its participation in the domain.

Crucially, today's competition in space isn't about reaching remote lunar or Martian terrains for destructive purposes. Delving into history, Mao Zedong's astonishment in the 1960s questioning China's status as a powerful nation due to its inability to launch even a potato into space —offers a historical perspective. Deng Xiaoping's later response in the late 1970s underscores the strategic significance of possessing nuclear capabilities, launching satellites, and attaining international prominence. Manned space flight, in the 21st century, encapsulates these ambitions.

A noteworthy event is NASA's launch of the James Webb space telescope on December 25, 2021, designed for advanced infrared astronomy. This telescope is distinct from its predecessors, enabling the observation of exoplanets' reflected light and electromagnetic spectra, potentially revealing traces of life or minerals. The future of space research lies in unveiling celestial mysteries, not in the realm of science fiction battles like "Star Wars." It involves venturing to asteroids, meteorites, and habitable exoplanets—a pursuit underpinned by the dwindling reserves of Earth's mineral resources and water.

Contrary to a vision of space conquest through conflict, today's space exploration aims at collaboration between superpowers. The goal is to discover alternatives to the depletion of terrestrial resources that currently sustain our advanced technologies. In this context, the Chinese space program is dedicated to these broader goals, focusing on innovation and sustainability rather than pursuing the destruction of potential adversaries. Such collaboration recognizes that the conquest of space necessitates shared efforts and cooperation, forgoing adversarial ambitions that once characterized the domain.

Thematic Section 3: China's Strategic Balance and Regional Dynamics

The historical trajectory of Sino-Russian relations reveals a complex interplay of diplomacy, power dynamics, and strategic considerations. From the era of tsarist expansion to the impact of unequal treaties and the ideological tug -ofwar during the Cold War, China's relationship with Russia has traversed a multifaceted landscape.

The historical backdrop of Sino-Russian interactions extends beyond the overt geopolitical maneuvers. The strategic positioning of China vis -à-vis Russia has evolved with an understanding of the implications of a strong neighbor on its borders. For China, the presence of a robust Russia can pose disadvantages, while a weakened and externally influenced neighbor can introduce its own set of challenges.

Throughout its history, China's diplomatic approach has emphasized the pursuit of equilibrium that avoids triggering crises within the vast expanse of Eurasia. This region stands as a crucial reservoir of resources, underpinning global dynamics. China's strategic balancing act, honed over two millennia, strives to navigate these intricacies without unsettling the Eurasian stability.

Key milestones mark the modern era of Sino-Russian relations. The establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of

Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation in 2021 marked two decades of stability between these nations. Significantly, this stability has been maintained without resorting to a formal military alliance or China's backing of contentious actions, as seen in the absence of Chinese support for the invasion of Ukraine.

In exploring China's nuanced approach to its relationship with Russia, it's important to acknowledge the intricate chessboard of arms sales and counterbalances. This delicate dance highlights the pragmatism and strategic foresight that underlie China's interactions with its northern neighbor.

As we delve into this thematic section, we dissect the intricacies of China's historical and contemporary engagement with Russia, emphasizing the quest for balance and stability in the Eurasian context. This perspective reveals the intricate web of considerations that drive China's strategic decisions, transcending superficial power plays and aligning with its tradition of maintaining equilibrium amid global complexities.

Restrepo Question : Dynamics of Collaboration and Competition between China and Russia

The intricate interplay between China and Russia, encompassing both collaboration and competition, spans various domains such as energy, technology, and military affairs. Could you provide insights into the evolving nature of their interactions in these critical spheres, considering their historical context and contemporary implications?

Giancarlo's Response: From the tsarist expansion to the subsequent unequal treaties, until the crisis in the 1960s with the Soviet Union - as the latter had excluded it from the possibility of having the nuclear weapon, fearing the populous and enthusiastic heavy-handed neighbour that later brilliantly shifted the issue to the ideological side, thus eroding Soviet power over many of the world's ruling and non-ruling Communist parties - China, per se - and I am not just referring to the People’s Republic of China (1949-2023) - had always held off first St Petersburg and then the Kremlin. For China - indeed for the Middle Empire - a strong Russia on the border is a disadvantage, but a weak neighbour which, in turn, can be other-directed by third parties - as happened in the 1990s - is also dangerous.

The traditional solution of China's two-thousand-year-old diplomacy is to seek a balance that does not create crises in Eurasia which, as is well known, is the last resource reservoir on planet Earth. In 2021, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Shanghai

Cooperation Organisation and the signing of the SinoRussian Treaty of Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation, relations between the two countries entered their third decade of stability without any form of military alliance, or even Chinese support for the invasion of Ukraine. It should also be said that arms sales to one side are counterbalanced by the other side's same action.

Thematic Section: Unveiling the Cybersecurity Landscape

In an era dominated by technology and connectivity, the realm of cybersecurity has emerged as a pivotal domain with implications that transcend borders. The accusations and counter-accusations between the United States and China regarding cybersecurity unveil a complex narrative that reflects the enduring practice of intelligence gathering across history.

The allegation that China poses a significant cybersecurity threat, including accusations of state -sponsored hacking and cyber espionage, underscores the evolution of espionage methods through time. Yet, these practices are not unique to a particular party; rather, they are a timeless feature of geopolitical rivalry.

From ancient times, where smoke signals and cartographic cryptography held sway, to the modern era with its cybernetic techniques and satellite surveillance, the quest for intelligence has been relentless.

Central to this dynamic is the recognition that both parties employ intelligence-gathering mechanisms as a matter of statecraft. The realm of cybersecurity is a two-sided coin, marked by accusations that echo from one side to the other. These allegations intertwine and intersect, forming a web where preparedness and technological prowess dictate the level of insight gained.

This equilibrium accentuates the essence of intelligence as a tool of the State, guided by the principles elucidated by Machiavelli.

As we navigate the intricate terrain of cybersecurity, the United States and China's relationship in this realm echoes the broader themes of international diplomacy. The motivations are driven by strategic interests, transcending the notions of good versus bad or oppressors versus victims. It is a realm where the reason of State governs the actions of nations, resulting in a complex landscape of shifting allegiances and interactions.

In this thematic section, we delve into the multifaceted world of cybersecurity and espionage, peeling back the layers of history to unravel the essence of intelligence gathering. The backdrop of the United States' accusations against China provides a lens through which we examine the nuances of statecraft, technological prowess, and the enduring dance of espionage in a rapidly evolving digital age.

Restrepo Question: Navigating the Allegations of Cyber

Threats. The United States' accusation of China being a significant cybersecurity threat, marked by claims of statesponsored hacking and cyber espionage, raises intricate questions about the evolving landscape of digital security. Could you provide your insights into the dynamics of these allegations and the potential trajectory of the cybersecurity relationship between the United States and China in the years to come?

Giancarlo's Response: From time immemorial, intelligence or espionage, or whatever you call it, has always been adopted simultaneously by the parties involved, with the most efficient means of the time, ranging from smoke signals to sympathetic ink, from cartographic cryptography to Enigma, from spy planes to the famous James Bond-style mini cameras. Today it is the same: the fear of espionagebe it cyber, cybernetic or satellite espionage - is two-faced, and the accusations of one side to the other are mirrored by those of the other to the one side. They therefore cancel each other with the result that whoever is better equipped knows more than the one who is less prepared. There are no victims and oppressors, there are no good guys and bad guys. There is only the reason of State, as Machiavelli teaches us.

Thematic Introduction: Navigating Geopolitical Complexities

The world of international relations is a complex web of interwoven interests, power dynamics, and evolving strategies. As we delve into the nuances of geopolitics and global affairs, it's important to recognize that some topics tread on sensitive ground. Our interview with Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori has provided us with invaluable insights into various aspects of international relations, shedding light on intricate relationships, strategies, and historical contexts.

In this final segment, we explore a question that raises complex considerations. The question touches on the intersection of cybersecurity, state-sponsored activities, and the geopolitical landscape. The responses provided by Professor Valori offer a glimpse into the higher echelons of international affairs, showcasing the expertise and careful analysis required to navigate such intricate subjects. As readers engage with this segment, it's worth keeping in mind the multifaceted nature of geopolitics and the challenge of addressing topics that may be deemed sensitive or controversial. The goal remains to foster a deeper understanding of global dynamics and the perspectives that shape them, even in the face of complex questions that test the boundaries of international discourse.

Restrepo Question: Russia has been accused of meddling in the 2016 US Presidential election through hacking and cyber espionage. How do you see China's relationship with Russia in the realm of cybersecurity, and do you think China could be implicated in similar activities?

Giancarlo Response: You know, I am merely a business manager, a geopolitical scholar and a university professor. Part of my answer on China-Russia relations is under the previous point. However, in order to fully answer this brilliant but very difficult question of yours, we should address to the highest-ranking and most arcane levels in the USA, Russia and China.

Thank you for the interview.

Giancarlo Elia Valori

Interview Summary: Navigating Global Dynamics with Prof. Giancarlo Elia Valori

In our captivating conversation with Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori, an esteemed expert in international affairs, we embarked on a journey through the intricate landscape of global dynamics and power politics. With each thematic section, we delved into key facets that shape the interactions between nations, shedding light on historical undercurrents and contemporary challenges.

We commenced by exploring China's ascension on the global stage, unraveling its strategic vision and evolving role in international organizations. Prof. Valori's insights underscored the dynamic interplay between China and the United States, as both nations seek to project power, purpose, and diplomacy on the world stage. This section illuminated the contrasting paradigms that the two giants embody, underpinned by their unique aspirations and priorities.

Transitioning to the realm of space and military capabilities, we examined China's space program and its potential military applications. Prof. Valori's historical context highlighted how space has been, and continues to be, a platform for geopolitical competition. His perspective on the balance between collaboration and strategic rivalry shed light on the multifaceted dimensions of space exploration.

Moving forward, our dialogue turned to the intricate relationship between China and Russia. Prof. Valori expertly guided us through the historical intricacies that have shaped their interactions. The analysis unveiled the delicate balance that both nations strive to maintain in the pursuit of stability in the Eurasian region, showcasing the timeless dynamics of power politics.

In our exploration of the allegations surrounding China's cybersecurity threats, Prof. Valori's insights provided a thought-provoking perspective. With historical echoes of intelligence activities ranging from ancient smoke signals to modern cyber espionage, the interview offered a nuanced understanding of the contemporary espionage landscape.

Prof. Valori's take on the reciprocity of intelligence activities challenged conventional notions of victims and oppressors, echoing Machiavellian principles of statecraft.

As we conclude this enriching dialogue, we find ourselves at the crossroads of global affairs, armed with profound insights into the complexities of our world. Our sincerest gratitude to Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori for his time, expertise, and dedication to dissecting the intricacies of international relations. Through our exploration of diverse themes, we've unraveled a tapestry that paints a holistic picture of our globalized reality—one shaped by historical legacies, technological advancements, and the timeless pursuit of strategic advantage.

Professor Giancarlo Elia

VALORI is a worldrenowned Italian economist and international relations expert, who serves as the President of the International World Group. He has authored three books on Artificial Intelligence.

Linda RESTREPO serves as the Director of Education and Innovation at the Human Health Education and Research Foundation. With advanced degrees in technology, she is widely recognized as a leader in Technology, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence.

Restrepo is the Editor in Chief | Publisher of INNER

SANCTUM VECTOR N36-™ a global Technology Publication.