Housing Update and Outlook Western Provinces
Robyn Adamache Senior Market Analyst
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Today’s Talk
9Demand Fundamentals 9Resale Market Update & Outlook
Housing Demand Fundamentals Stable Mortgage rates favourable Population based demand growing Job J b picture to improve Renovation spending strong
Mortgage Rates to Remain Favourable Posted 1 and 5 Year Mortgage Rates
Per Cent 10 8
5-year fixed
6 1-year fixed
4 2 2005
2006
Source: Bank of Canada
2007
2008
2009
2010
Mortgage Rates: Now and Then Posted 5 Year Mortgage Rates (1978 1983) vs (2005-2010) (1978-1983) (2005 2010)
Per Cent 20 15 10 5 0 1978 2005
1979 2006
Source: Bank of Canada
1980 2007
1981 2008
1982 2009
1983 2010
Migration to Increase Next Year Notable Migration Facts
Migration into Western Provinces
Interprovincial
60000
• Alberta highest between provinces • More people are leaving Manitoba
40000
International
• Majority is from other countries • BC highest among Western provinces
20000
0 Alberta
BC 2008 Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
2009
Sask 2010F
Manitoba 2011F
Unemployment Moves Lower
10 8 6 4 2 2000
2002
2004
2006 BC
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
Alberta
2008
2010
Unemployment Moves Lower
10 8 6 4 2 2000
2002
2004 Sask
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
2006 Manitoba
2008
2010
Job Growth Next Year 2010F
2011F
2 3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9%
1.9%
2.0% 1 6% 1.6%
1.3%
0.5%
BC
Source: CMHC Forecasts
Alberta
Sask
Man
Economy Expands in Western Provinces Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
4%
4%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2010
Source: CMHC Forecasts
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
Renovation Expenditures to Increase Renovation Expenditure p
Milli Millions $
$8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 BC
Alberta 2009
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
2010f
Sask 2011f
Manitoba
Housing Demand Steady Stable demand fundamentals Mortgage rates to remain favourable Population based demand growing Tourism Victoria
Job J b markets k improving i i as economies i expand d
Resale Market
BC Sales to Improve in 2011 MLS速 Sales 120,000
BC Residential Sales
90,000
60,000
30,000
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
2009 2010 YTD YTD
Source: MLS速 is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
Market Conditions Move in Tandem MLS® Sales to New Listings Ratio 100% 80%
Sellers’
REBGV
60%
B l Balanced d 40%
Buyers’ y
FVREB
20% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Most Lower Mainland Markets Balanced Squamish
Buyers’ Balanced Sellers’
West Van
North Van Tri-cities
W Side
E Burnaby Side New West
Maple Ridge/ Pitt Meadow
Richmond Delta
Surrey
Whit Rock White R k
Langley
Abbotsford
Home Price Growth to Slow MLS速 Average Price (SA) (Greater Vancouver) $800,000 Forecast Mar 10 Sept 10 $690K $680K
$700,000
Feb 08 $620K $600,000
$500,000 Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Detached House Prices Grow Fastest Index of MLS速 Average Price 1.20 Apartment Townhouse
Detached
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80 Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Victoria – Borderline Buyers’ Market
Victoria Real Estate 120%
$600,000 Seller’s
100%
$500,000
80%
$400,000
60%
$300,000
Balanced
40%
$200,000
20%
$100,000
Buyer’s
0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Northern Real Estate Balanced BC Northern Real Estate 100%
$300 000 $300,000 Seller’s
80% 60%
$200,000 Balanced
40% 20%
$100,000 Buyer’s
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
$0
2008 2010 Average Price
Kelowna in Buyers’ Market Conditions
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate $500,000 Seller’s
80% 60%
$300,000 Balanced
40% $100,000 20% Buyer’s
0%
2000
2002
2004
-$100,000 $100 000
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Alberta Sales to Steady in 2011 MLS速 Sales 90,000
BC Residential Sales
60 000 60,000
30,000
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
2009 2010 YTD YTD
Source: MLS速 is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
Sellers’ Conditions in Fort McMurray
Fort McMurray Real Estate 120%
$600,000 Seller’s
100%
$500 000 $500,000
80%
$400,000
60%
$300,000
B l Balanced d
40%
$200,000
20%
$100,000
Buyer’s
0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings g Ratio Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average g Price
Edmonton Market Balanced
Edmonton Real Estate 120%
$400,000 Seller’s
100%
$300,000 80% 60%
$200,000
Balanced
40% $100,000 20%
Buyer’s
0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Calgary Market Borderline Balanced
Calgary Real Estate $500,000
120% Seller’s
100%
$400,000
80%
$300,000
60%
$200,000
Balanced
40% $100,000
20%
Buyer’s
0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Saskatchewan Sales Up Modestly in 2011 MLS速 Sales 15,000
BC Residential Sales
12,000 9,000 6 000 6,000 3,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
2009 2010 YTD YTD
Source: MLS速 is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
Regina Market in Sellers’ Conditions Regina Real Estate 100%
$300,000
Seller’s
80% $200,000
60% Balanced 40%
$100,000
20% Buyer’s 0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Saskatoon Market Balanced
Saskatoon Real Estate 100%
$300,000
Seller’s
80% $200,000
60% Balanced 40%
$100,000
20% Buyer’s 0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings g Ratio Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average g Price
Manitoba Sales Stable in 2011 MLS速 Sales 15,000
BC Residential Sales
12,000 9,000 6 000 6,000 3,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
2009 2010 YTD YTD
Source: MLS速 is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
Winnipeg Market Hot
Winnipeg Real Estate $300,000 100%
Seller’s
80%
$200,000
60% Balanced 40%
$100 000 $100,000
20% Buyer’s 0%
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sales to New Listings Ratio
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
2008
2010
Average Price
Wrap Up
Stable demand fundamentals bode well for western markets Alberta & some BC communities slower to recover Modest price gains expected
Thank You!!
For More Information Contact:
Robyn Adamache radamach@cmhc.ca Tel: 604-737-4144
Access Free Market Analysis Reports Online: http://www cmhc-schl gc ca/en/inpr/homain/index cfm http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/inpr/homain/index.cfm Including: Rental Market Reports & Forecast Reports (Housing Market Outlook)