Table VI.3 Main results and parameters of studies on the cost of care

Study Countries Key parameters Results

ILO (2019) based on Ilkkaraçan and Kim (2019)

Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru

Contrasting two scenarios: (a) best way: expanding care services to meet the requirements of Goals 3, 4, 5 and 8; (b) status quo: assuming that care services will be expanded in line with populati on increases, while maintaining current coverage.

De Henau (2019) Uruguay Universal and free coverage for children under 4 years of age.

UN-Women and others (2020)

Mexico Universal and free coverage for children under 6 years of age.

UN-Women and others (2021) Mexico Universal coverage for dependent persons over 60 years of age (with different services for serious, moderate and mild dependency).

De Henau (2022) The Americas region Universal and free coverage for children under school age (60% for children under 3 years of age) and permanently dependent persons.

In Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru, investment of 2.3%, 2.7%, 1.9% and 3.5% of (projected) GDP respectively in education, health and social care above the status quo would create 28%, 19%, 22% and 32% more jobs by 2030 compared to the status quo. Moreover, 7%, 30%, 10% and 12% of those jobs would be in other sectors, and 15.8%, 21%, 13.7% and 14.7% of the total investment, respectively, would be recovered through tax revenue.

Annually investing 2.8% of GDP would increase women’s employment by 4.2%, and 37% of the jobs created would be in other sectors. With the additional tax revenue, the net funding gap would be 1.4% of GDP.

Additional annual investment of 1.16% of GDP for five years would increase employment by 3.9%. The additional tax revenue would be 0.29% of GDP.

Initially investing 0.11% of GDP and reaching the fifth year with service costs equivalent to 0.46% of GDP would increase formal employment by 0.46%. With the additional tax revenue, the funding gap in the fifth year would be 0.39% of GDP.

Additional investment of 1.38% of (projected) GDP in childcare and of 2.48% of GDP for dependent persons would be required. Added to the increase of parental leave, this would involve a total investment of 4.3% of GDP, which would lead to a projected increase by 2035 of 10.6% in the employment-to-population ratio for women (and of 2.7% for men). The additional tax revenue would reduce net investment to 3.2% of (projected) GDP.

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN-Women) and others, “Costs, returns, and effects of a universal, free, and quality child care system in Mexico”, Mexico City, 2020 [online] https://mexico. unwomen.org/sites/default/files/Field%20Office%20Mexico/Documentos/Publicaciones/2021/twopager_pobinfantil.pdf; “El cuidado de las personas adultas mayores en situación de dependencia en México: propuesta de servicios, estimación preliminar de costos e identificación de impactos económicos”, Mexico City, 2021 [online] https://mexico.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/Field%20Office%20Mexico/Documentos/Publicaciones/2021/fourpager60v4.pdf; J. De Henau, “Costs and benefits of investing in transformative care policy packages: a macrosimulation study in 82 countries”, ILO Working Paper, No. 55, Geneva, International Labour Organization (ILO), 2022; “Investing in free universal childcare in South Africa, Turkey and Uruguay. A comparative analysis of costs, short-term employment effects and fiscal revenue”, Discussion Paper, No. 28, New York, United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN-Women), 2019; International Labour Organization (ILO), Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work, Geneva, 2019; I. Ilkkaraçan and K. Kim, The Employment Generation Impact of Meeting SDG Targets in Early Childhood Care, Education, Health and Long-Term Care in 45 Countries, Geneva, International Labour Organization (ILO), 2019.

All of the studies mentioned are based on the development of a cost structure to expand care services, an input-output methodology25 to calculate the indirect job creation and a tax revenue estimate that would increase economic activity. More specifically, one the cost structure is in place, it is possible to incorporate it into the input-output analysis to work out the jobs that would be created in sectors other than those in which production inputs are obtained.

As regards care expenditure, worth noting is the recent implementation of the Social Expenditure Database (SOCX) methodology of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in ten countries in the region (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago and Uruguay). This methodology, which is aimed at analysing social expenditure at the programme level, is already being used in Chile and Mexico as OECD member States. The breakdown of social expenditure includes categories related to comprehensive care systems that can be monitored. These categories include the provisions in pre-school care and education, and the provisions in household assistance and residential care services, both for older persons and for persons with disabilities (Adema and Fron, 2019).

25 Input-output matrices are data matrices that represent the production and structure of expenditure in different sectors. The matrix presents intersectoral transactions, where each sector buys production input or sells to other intermediate sectors. Intersectoral transactions create multiplier effects that are calculated as output multipliers. These multipliers show the effect of increasing a unit of output of a particular sector in the output of other sectors. One the output multipliers have been obtained, it is possible to combine them with employment rates by industry —i.e. the number of workers per output unit— to obtain employment multipliers (Ilkkaraçan, Kim and Kaya, 2015).

In order for care systems and policies to comply with the aim of strengthening joint social and gender-based responsibility in care and overcome the traditional social division of labour, it is essential for the State to ensure the quality of the service provision. To that end, these policies must be followed up through a robust system of monitoring and evaluation indicators that provide information on the fulfilment of objectives, both in terms of the quality of the services created or expanded, and in the coverage of the population that needs them and their impact on women’s economic autonomy. The systematic accountability of care systems must be an essential feature of their management and must be supported by information from different instruments, such as administrative records, specific surveys of beneficiaries and qualitative studies that take into account the system’s impact on the lives of families, especially of women and persons working in the care sector. This will make it possible to visualize the fulfilment of goals and refocus activities if there is insufficient progress.