Keynote Session : Better than a Crystal Ball: Health futures in transition

-By Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at the Sejahtera Centre for Sustainability and Humanity, International Islamic University, Malaysia

Futures thinking is a method of strategic planning that evaluates what is expected to change and what is likely to remain the same in the future to be more thoughtful. Some consider it to be more of an art and others to be a science, it provides a framework for discussing our current environment and how it might appear in the future. It indicates what might happen as a result of current decisions, activities, and concerns as well as contains all possible future scenarios to make the greatest decisions for everyone concerned, which is referred to as the preferred future.

From the healthcare perspective, the WHO Science Division established a Global Health Foresight function in 2020 to assist Member States in incorporating futures-thinking and horizonscanning into their strategic health planning frameworks so that they can better anticipate and prepare for a changing world while also maximising the benefits of emerging technologies to address these changes.

Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, an international expert on the subject began the 3rd Annual Healthcare Management Conference hosted by Goa Institute of Management by emphasizing on using the future, by moving the future from a ‘ predictive space to a more social, cultural and a tangible asset’ . As we simply cannot predict the future by data, we need to focus on how the image is changing, narrow our vision and understand the paradigm shift there is. “In futures thinking, the mile starts to shift not just as a silver bullet but also in a social, cultural and environmental context. ” Dr. Inayatullah explained this point by mentioning the fact that a study conducted in Victoria showed that 34% of doctors indulged in meditation and 80% believed that there was a need for complementary medicine. He acknowledged the rise of geo-medicine. A study conducted in Israel indicated that if a person is staying near a fast-food restaurant, his/her chances of getting a stroke is much higher that a person who is not living near. Another concept that is gaining prominence is the concept of customisation and personalisation where there are tailored health plans as per the individual need. All of this indeed brings us to a point where we begin wondering how do we use the future.

From top left Dr. Sohail Inayatullah Keynote Speaker ; Dr. Devasheesh Mathur Conference Conveyner Dr. Ajit Parulekar Director, GIM

“Imagine something impossible today, that becomes the vision of tomorrow. ” Dr. Inayatullah divulged that it is not just important to have the vision but also to pave the way to achieve our objectives. One must imagine what is needed 10 years down the line and then go backwards in time to the current present to gain clarity and add precision to our actions. One of the most important closing remarks made by the speaker was to change our measurement systems in a revolutionary manner by moving from measuring GDP to measuring well-being. He iterated that at the end of the day,

“Crystal ball is not about finding the right answer, it is the development of capability and building a capacity so that people feel empowered to create their futures.

All the minds in the session were enlightened by Dr. Inayatullah’ s insights about the application of Futures thinking by changing the narrative and building a story. As a young student pursuing management studies in the field of healthcare, I am eager to reshape my thought process and create a force to foresight as advised by our speaker. I firmly believe that our concept of the future needs to be aligned in a manner that allows health to be at the centre stage of all metrics. We must come up with economic designs which aim towards a more sustainable, resilient and participatory future. Futures thinking needs to be thought about in regards to healthcare judiciously. In the past decade, the field of healthcare has seen a transitional shift in terms of interventions. However, the entire world came to a standstill as we faced a pandemic. We need to use insights from Futures thinking in the present day to shape a future where we can successfully predict future pandemics and have interventional plans and strategies ready to combat them. As we see more and more countries prioritise healthcare and increase their expenditure to drive innovation in the field of medicine, steps are being taken in the right direction for a better tomorrow.

From a diabetic in the USA struggling to get their dose of insulin due to exorbitant prices to people in Ghana who had no access to vaccines because of lack of equity, all the plugholes of the healthcare systems need to be identified and plugged to envisage a future that is flexible and inclusive in the social context. Futures thinking is not just about building a world with modernities and high-end technology but creating self-sustaining ecosystems where we have people in harmony and the truest state of wellbeing. To do so, we need to imbibe the idea of Futures thinking and ACT NOW!

- Rapporteur Dr. Aman Gandhi (HCM-21-23)