Fx Addicts Daily Email Archive 2011

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Archive All E-Mails Are Archived in Descending Date Order From the Most Recent to the Oldest on File.

Table of Contents December 2011 ........................................................................................................................... 2 November 2011......................................................................................................................... 21 October 2011............................................................................................................................. 41 September 2011 ........................................................................................................................ 60 August 2011 .............................................................................................................................. 82 July 2011................................................................................................................................. 105 June 2011 ................................................................................................................................ 124 May 2011 ................................................................................................................................ 149 April 2011 ............................................................................................................................... 175 March 2011 ............................................................................................................................. 196 February 2011 ......................................................................................................................... 219

December 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday December 29, 2011 US Economic Data Better Than Expectations Two reports released today came out better than expectations. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came out at 62.5, better than the expected 60.4. Last month’s number was 62.6.

This is a good Chicago PMI number and certainly positive that there are two decent numbers in a row. The other positive report was the release of the Pending Home Sale Saless which came in higher 7.3%. Expectations were for an increase of 1.7%. This is also the second strong report in a row for Pending Home Sales; last month was an increase of 10.4%.

The weekly Unemployment Claims came in at 381k, expectations were for 372 372k. k. This is now the fourth week below 400k, a very positive economic sign. Because of this December’s Employment Report due out January 6th, 2012 could be better than November’s surprise decrease. The 4-week week moving average for Weekly Unemployment Claims is now running 375k, the lowest since June 2008.

All of these are positive economic reports for the US and when combined signal a potential economic upturn for 2012.

Monday, all banks around the world will be closed so, markets will be very slow. Everyone Every will attempt to position themselves before mid mid-session session tomorrow, Friday, to make sure they are set for the New Year. More than likely no one will want to enter the New Year with too many if any Euros.

Have a happy New Year.

2 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Tuesday December 27, 2011 Holiday Doldrums Traditionally the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is slow and this year is expected to be no different. Today is fairly slow although spreads are better than yesterday; meaning some liquidity idity has returned to the markets. Hong Kong, Australia and the UK banks are closed today reducing liquidity for currencies and interest rate instruments. There are a couple of minor economic reports of interest today, both from the US. The Case Shiller House Price Index, an index of US housing price changes, released this morning showed yet another drop in prices. Expectations were for a decline of 3.2% and the Index came in at negative -3.4%; 3.4%; it has not been positive in over a year. The other economic economi news of interest was the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.

Expectations were for 58.5 and it was released at 64.5, the highest level in 7 months. Over the past few months this number has been creeping up. For comparison this index was over 100.0 in good economic times.

Trading today and the rest of the week will be slow but, there will be opportunities for some minor scalping.

3 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Friday December 23, 2011 US Personal Spending Lower US Personal rsonal Income and Personal spending for November both came in lower than expected.

Both numbers rose 0.1% and expectations were for an increase of 0.3% for both. For the past 12 months Personal Income has increased as well as Spending showing only one negative ne month.

These are positive signs for the US economy as people are once again making more income and spending that income.

US Durable goods released today came in at 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.2% increase. This is a fairly volatile number so, the Core rate which excludes airline orders represents more of the mainstream economy; this number increased 0.3%. Expectations were for an increase of 0.5% and last month’s number increased by 1.5%. Durable Goods are very expensive items that are boughtt infrequently. Therefore, the number is very volatile month to month.

4 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday December 22, 2011 Britain’s Current Account Drops The largest decline in 3 years, Britain’s Current Account declined -15.2 billion, the worst decline since December 2007’s report of -20.0 20.0 billion. Expectations were for a decrease of -5.6 billion, last quarter’s report was also revised lower from a decline of -2.0 billion to -7.4 7.4 billion. What this means is Britain is importing more than it is exporting and not just a little but a lot more than in the past 3 years. There are two ways to look at this report; first that the economy is picking up and that people are buying more goods from outside the country. Or, that Britain’s goods are a not desirable enough and they are not selling as much as they are importing thus lowering production. Either way it is not good for Britain’s economy or currency.

In the US, final GDP for the 3rd quarter came in lower than expected at 1.8%; expectations expectatio were for 2.0%. Originally reported with a respectable increase of 2.5% at the end of October it has now been reduced to a number of slow growth concern.

Also in the US, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 364k, the third weekly improvement and the best weekly number since July 2008.

In Brazil the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 5.2% the best showing in over a year.

Expectations were for 5.7% after last month’s 5.8%. This is very encouraging as the Brazilian Central Bank has cited on several occasion occasionss fear that the European crises would adversely affect the Brazilian economy. They have cut rates 3 times in the past 6 months in anticipation of a slowing economy and yet Unemployment is dropping; Europe’s affects may not be as bad as once thought.

5 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Wednesday December 21, 2011 Japan’s Trade Balance Sinks Imports far outpaced exports for the 8 month in a row adding to Japan’s already weakened economic situation. Expectations were for the Trade Balance to decrease -0.28 0.28 trillion Yen, it came in at -0.54 0.54 trillion Yen. This is the worst monthly showing in the last 5 years. Not only did imports increase substantially but exports decreased more than expected. It has now been 8 months in a row that the Trade Balance ha hass been negative. Japan is a very large exporting nation and its economy relies on the revenues from those exports to boost growth. This type of economic shortcoming will make it more difficult for Japan’s economy to recover from its recent negative GDP. Much of this negative Trade Balance can be attributed to the Yen’s high value.

Canadian Retail Sales reported this morning came in much higher than expectations with an increase of 1.0%; expectations were for an increase of 0.4%. The Core rate also expanded expa better than expected rising 1.0%, same as October’s increase; expectations were for an increase of 0.3%. This is the third positive month in a row providing strength to the Canadian economy.

6 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Tuesday December 20, 2011 US Housing Starts Higher US Housing Starts and Building Permits were both higher in today’s report. Housing Starts showed the best performance since November 2008 coming in at 0.69M. Over the last 3 months Housing Starts have had numbers over 60 600,000, 0,000, this also has not happened since 2008. Building Permits came in at 0.68M, the best showing since April 2010 when the government’s home buying incentive ran out. Since these numbers are showing a few months of increases it is encouraging for the beaten aten down US housing market and long term positive for the Dollar.

In Germany today the Ifo Business Climate came in at 107.2; expectations were for 106.2 after last month’s 106.6 reading. This is a fairly large survey of over 7,000 businesses so a large increase in the number is not usual. Also in Germany the GfK Consumer Climate was reported at 5.6; equal to last month’s report and slightly higher than the expected 5.5 reading. Overall these are fairly good reports for Germany and for the EU. The Eur Euro o is rising strongly on the news. Caution should be heeded as one month does not make a trend and this is the holiday season so optimism runs higher this time of the year.

In Great Britain the CBI Realized Sales came in positive at 9, the first positive showing since May. Expectations were for a reading of -14 after last month’s -19.

19. This is a small survey of 160 businesses that asks the relative level of sales volume. Just as a comparison last year at this time it was 56. The Pound is rallying signif significantly from the news.

7 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Monday December 19, 2011 Europe’s Current Account Negative Europe’s Current Account once again fell to a negative following a one month increase.

September’s number, originally reported with a 0.5 billion increase, has been revised to be a 2.2 billion increase; first increase since May 2010. October’s number, today’s release, came with a decrease of -7.5 7.5 billion. This means that Europe is importing more than it is exporting; ultimately less demand for their currency. Since this information is almost 2 months old the impact is fairly muted.

The death of Kim Jong Il on Saturday had a minor impact on the markets with an initial reaction by the markets to seek US Dollars as safety. Longer ter term m there is no clear global impact until North Korea’s successor, Kim Jong Il’s son Kim Jong-un,, makes know his intentions. Any signs of unrest would cause Dollar buying.

8 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Friday December 16, 2011 US Inflation Data Mixed The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in unchanged for the month of November. It was expected to increase 0.1% after October’s decrease of -0.1%; 0.1%; the more widely watched CPI Core rate increased by 0.2%. Expectations for the Core rate were an incre increase ase of only 0.1%, same as October’s increase. Overall, for the year inflation is running very low, 3.5% for the past 12 months and the Core 2.3% for the last 12 months. The Core rate does not include food or energy costs. This report is really Dollar ne neutral.

Trading for the rest of Friday’s session should be fairly uneventful as there is very little news.

Over the past week the Euro has dropped considerably against most currencies and the Dollar has risen a lot against most currencies. There needs to be a consolidation for a few days before additional significant movement can resume.

9 | Page

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday December 15, 2011 US Unemployment Claims Drop US Unemployment Claims were down again significantly to 366k for last wee week. k. This is good as it indicates more people are seeking less first time unemployment benefits. The one looming question is, is it due to holiday hiring, meaning the drop is only temporary. The second week of January when the first week of January is rep reported orted will be the report to watch as many hired for the holiday season will be filing for unemployment.

Also in the US the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 9.5, much higher than the expected 3.1 and the highest since May of 2011. This is a sur survey vey of about 200 manufactures in New York. Anything greater than 0.0 is considered expansive for future economic activity in the New York manufacturing industry. This was a very positive report. Last month was just barely positive at 0.6; however it is now the second positive month in a row.

Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) were released today for China, France, Germany and all of Europe. A couple of noted surprises were in France and Germany’s Services PMI which came in above expectations and above 50.

0. Anything above 50 signals an expected expansion of economic conditions while below 50 is considered as negative. All the remaining PMI’s were below 50.

10 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Tuesday December 14, 2011 EU Industrial Production Down Ag Again European Industrial Production was down -0.1% 0.1% for the month of October, the second month in a row that it has been negative. This has not happened since the summer of 2009. Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% after last month’s decrease of -2.0%. Each month of negative production puts Europe further into a financial hole that will be more and more difficult from which to recover.

Switzerland’s ZEW Economic Expectations came in at -72.0 making it the 8th month in a row of negative readings. Tomorrow ow the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its intentions with their recent currency peg to the Euro. Most analysts expect the Bank to do nothing; however, in statements by the Bank in the last month, they have indicated a willingness to raise the peg to a higher Euro value. Economic conditions in Switzerland have deteriorated and continued to show greater weakness. This weakness may be more than enough to devalue the Franc without further intervention from the SNB.

11 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday December 13, 2011 US Retail Sales Drop At a time of the year when Retail Sales should show strength, they are much lower than expectations. Because of the holidays November and December are usually two of the strongest months for retail sales. ales. Today, November Retail Sales were reported higher 0.2% for both the Core rate and the full set of sales. Expectations were for increases of 0.5% for the Core rate and 0.6% for the whole report. October’s numbers were higher by 0.6%; a respectable increase in an otherwise troubled economic time. This report is a minor negative for the Dollar.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment reports for both Germany and all of Europe came out today slightly better than expectations and better than last month’s readings. Germany’s reading came in at -53.8; 53.8; expectations were for -56.1. All of Europe’s came in at -54.1; 54.1; expectations were for 60.3. While these numbers are better than expectations and better than last month, they are still decisively negative and do not hold old good expectations for future economic growth of Europe.

12 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday December 12, 2011 India’s Industrial Production Crashes India, one of the fastest growing economies has hit a brick wall in one month. Industrial Production was down -5.1%, the first decline since June 2009 and the worst showing in over 15 years. While this is only one month of one economic report it is one of the worst showings in many years for the Indian economy. India’s Central Bank’s 13 interest rate increases coupled with political infighting to the point of near government paralysis is now showing up in economic numbers. As the third largest Asian economy a contraction of large magnitude could be devastating for the rest of Asia as well as the world. The Rupee is down against most major currencies.

Germany had two reports out today that shows upward pricing pressures; first the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and then the House Price Index (HPI). The WPI was expected to show an increase of 0.2% after last month’s decrease of -1.0%; it came in at 0.7%. This is a measure of pricing at the wholesale level, usually passed on to the consumer within several months. The HPI came in higher 1.1%; expectations were for an increase of 0.6% after last month’s 1.3% increase. This is a gauge of monthly housing prices usually thought to predict consumer health as people feel more confident paying higher housing prices. Normally, price increases such as these would be positive for the Euro; however, with the recent European issues still not clearly resolved these reports are having no affect on the currency.

Monday, December 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3527 1.3425 1.3357 1.3255 1.3187

GBP/USD 1.5818 1.5708 1.5659 1.5548 1.5499

356.6

335.4

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3386 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2073 77.9685 77.5443 77.3055 76.8813

USD/CHF 0.9360 0.9316 0.9246 0.9202 0.9132

EUR/CHF 1.2435 1.2392 1.2359 1.2316 1.2283

EUR/JPY 104.7758 104.1065 103.5508 102.8815 102.3258

139.2

239.4

160.0

257.2

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5668 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.6400 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9226 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2352 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.9340 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

13 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday December 9, 2011 Europe Agreement Disappoints European heads of state pulled an all night marathon negotiation and in the end produced little that all nations could feel comfortable with agreement. The proposal would be a new European Union Treaty that puts specific percentage of GDP targets on debt for each country; only 23 of the 27 countries in the Union said they would agree to such a treaty. Much opposition came from Britain’s Prime Minister Cameron as he complained that a new Treaty would severely restrict Britain’s financial sovereignty. There are more meetings planned for today; however, there does not seem to be any solutions on the table that would address the immediate issues of debt and bank exposure to that debt. Overall this is bearish for the Euro.

China released its monthly slew of economic data and their inflation numbers came in well below estimates. Producer Prices came in 2.7% higher after last month’s increase of 5.0% and expectations of an increase of 3.3%. Consumer Prices increased 4.2%; expectations were for an increase of 4.6% after last month’s increase of 5.5%. Both of these numbers are down significantly since last summer. Prices that decline this quickly are not really good as it can be a sign of slower growth. China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales were reported in line with expectations.

In the US today at 9:55 am ET the University of Michigan releases it’s widely watched Consumer Sentiment Index expected to show an increase to 65.6 from last month’s 64.1 reading.

Friday, December 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3509 1.3463 1.3406 1.3360 1.3304

GBP/USD 1.5811 1.5773 1.5683 1.5646 1.5556

215.0

268.2

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3340 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.8503 77.7545 77.6853 77.5895 77.5203

USD/CHF 0.9307 0.9266 0.9246 0.9205 0.9185

EUR/CHF 1.2464 1.2418 1.2397 1.2351 1.2330

34.7

128.1

140.3

157.9

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5628 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.6370 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9260 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2354 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.4470 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 104.9018 104.5325 104.1498 103.7805 103.3978

― ―

14 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday December 8, 2011 ECB Cuts Rates Quarter Percent In a widely expected move the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates to 1.00% from 1.25%. This cut negates the two ¼% increases from the first half of the year. In the first half of the year interest rates were increased by the ECB to combat inflationary pressures. European inflation is now higher than levels the first half of the year, calling into question the ECB’s decision to raise rates in the first half of the year as well as this latest round of decreases.

Markets are taking this latest move as a warning sign that future economics may not be good given the European debt and banking crises.

In happier news the U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims came in much lower than expected at 381k, the lowest since March 2011. Unfortunately, the prior week’s claims were increased from 402k to 404k. During the holidays every year there are surprises in this number as more people are hired for the shopping season. The real test will be about the third and fourth weeks of January if Weekly Unemployment Claims drop again and consistently reaching the mid 300k range.

Thursday, December 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.9510 77.8290 77.7280 77.6060 77.5050

EUR/USD 1.3485 1.3448 1.3390 1.3354 1.3296

GBP/USD 1.5708 1.5651 1.5605 1.5548 1.5503

197.6

215.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3412 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5710 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.6720 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9235 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2384 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.1660 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

46.8

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9350 0.9307 0.9253 0.9210 0.9155

EUR/CHF 1.2494 1.2459 1.2393 1.2358 1.2292

204.1

212.5

― ―

― ―

15 | P a g e

EUR/JPY 104.7583 104.4865 104.0583 103.7865 103.3583 147.0

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday December 7, 2011 European Industrial Production Mixed Germany’s Industrial Production came in this morning higher 0.8% while Italy’s was down 0.9% and Great Britain’s was lower -0.7%. The continued indecision and inability to deal with European debt issues along with the stringent austerity measures that have been implemented are beginning to show up in economic numbers on a consistent basis. Europe may already be in the throes of economic recession. On balance, over the past 6 months, Industrial Production for all parts of Europe has declined.

Wednesday, December 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3526 1.3456 1.3415 1.3345 1.3305

GBP/USD 1.5779 1.5712 1.5648 1.5581 1.5517

232.3

275.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3401 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2778 78.0235 77.8528 77.5985 77.4278

USD/CHF 0.9265 0.9235 0.9199 0.9169 0.9133

EUR/CHF 1.2419 1.2368 1.2346 1.2294 1.2273

89.2

138.6

153.9

207.5

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5600 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.7130 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9259 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2408 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.1390 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 105.3550 104.7380 104.3670 103.7500 103.3790

― ―

16 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday December 6, 2011 Swiss CPI Down Again Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index dropped again last month by -0.2%; this is now the 5th decline in the last 6 months. Price declines can be good for a particular market and for an economy that has had significant price appreciation; however, too much can be a sign of a more serious problem. Switzerland’s prices were high compared with other European nations and always have been one of higher priced economies. Prices may be dropping too quickly and might start a deflationary spiral. Not good for the Franc. The currency has been over-valued; this will take out some of that appreciation.

Germany’s Factory Orders staged a fairly good rebound last month gaining 5.2%, the biggest one month gain since January 2011. The last 3 months showed an -8.6% decline so this one month hardly makes up for lost ground; however, it is positive. This report is helpful for the Euro.

Tuesday, December 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.3253 78.1785 77.9243 77.7775 77.5233

EUR/USD 1.3608 1.3488 1.3425 1.3305 1.3242

GBP/USD 1.5777 1.5682 1.5629 1.5534 1.5481

384.5

310.0

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3401 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5646 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.8110 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9206 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2335 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.2440 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

84.2

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9323 0.9275 0.9192 0.9143 0.9060

EUR/CHF 1.2400 1.2376 1.2348 1.2324 1.2296

EUR/JPY 106.2338 105.2405 104.6778 103.6845 103.1218

276.6

109.4

326.8

― ―

― ―

17 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday December 5, 2011 Euro Investor Confidence Wanes Yet Another Month In Europe the Sentix Investor Confidence, a survey of 2,800 investors, came in at negative -24.0; its lowest reading since July 2009 and the 5th negative month in a row. Anything above 0.0 is considered economically positive and below 0.0 negative. This is a fairly broad measure of confidence and the number has a tendency to be consistent and fairly accurate. Being the 5th month down and the largest negative in over two years it is yet another indication Europe is heading into a recession. This is Euro negative; however, French President Sarkozy is meeting with Germany’s Merkel in the hopes of providing answers to Europe’s problems. This meeting is keeping the Euro positive.

In the U.S. today there are two reports expected out at 10 am eastern; the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders. These have the potential for moving the Dollar if they show much strength. Expectations for the PMI are 53.6 and Factory Orders are expected to decrease -0.2%.

Anything above 55.5 on the PMI would move the Dollar higher and a positive Factory Orders increase of 0.5% or better would move the Dollar up as well.

Monday, December 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3568 1.3512 1.3464 1.3408 1.3360

GBP/USD 1.5810 1.5747 1.5691 1.5628 1.5572

218.4

249.5

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3392 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 12/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.9970 77.8580 77.6660 77.5270 77.3350

USD/CHF 0.9263 0.9216 0.9143 0.9096 0.9023

EUR/CHF 1.2461 1.2391 1.2322 1.2252 1.2182

69.5

251.8

292.7

181.0

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5593 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.9550 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9214 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2341 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.4150 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 105.4683 105.0155 104.6063 104.1535 103.7443

― ―

18 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Friday December 2, 2011 U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops The U.S. Unemployment Rate took an unexpected drop this morning to 8.6%, the lowest level since April 2009. Expectations were for 9.0%, same as October’s number. Non-Farm Payrolls, the he other half of the report that comes from different sources, showed a more subdued increase of 120k; slightly less than the expected 126k. This is fairly bullish for the Dollar.

Canada’s Unemployment report came out less rosy ticking up to 7.4%; expect expectations ations were for 7.3%, equal to October’s reading. This is their highest number since July; however, it is consistent with recent numbers. Their Employment Change dropped -18.6k 18.6k adding to last month’s decline of -54k.

54k. Initially this news caused the Canad Canadian ian Dollar to sell off against the U.S. Dollar and has since recovered after the U.S. Employment report.

Overall, employment is not great but, longer term it is showing improvement. This is good news for both the U.S. and Canadian economies as they are eextremely xtremely large trading partners with each other.

19 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday December 1, 2011 China’s Manufacturing PMI Drops Below 50 China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped below 50 for the first time since March 2009. A reading of 49.8 was expected and the actual number came in at 49.0.

Yesterday China cut interest rates a half a percent to thwart an economic slowdown. China has been showing signs of an economic slowdown for the last couple of months as factory orders and some sales figures have shown slower activity.

Great Britain also reported their Manufacturing PMI below 50. Their release came in at 47.6, just slightly higher than the expected 47.1. Last month’s number was also revised higher from 47.4 to 47.8. This report confirms projections that Great Britain is in the midst of an economic slowdown; this is the fourth month below 50 out of the last 5 months. It has been almost 2 years since these numbers have been this negative.

The US will report its Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 am ET today. For currencies this is only a minor report but, together with the other PMI reports could end up being a positive for the Dollar if the report shows stronger than the expected 51.6. That would mean the US is economically better than the rest of the world for manufacturing expectations.

Thursday, December 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.5895 78.2430 77.9275 77.5810 77.2655

EUR/USD 1.3495 1.3393 1.3339 1.3237 1.3183

GBP/USD 1.5765 1.5688 1.5578 1.5501 1.5392

327.6

392.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3445 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5699 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.6030 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9130 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2275 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.3450 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/30/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

139.0

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9303 0.9259 0.9199 0.9155 0.9095

EUR/CHF 1.2328 1.2287 1.2272 1.2232 1.2217

EUR/JPY 104.7870 104.2050 103.8170 103.2350 102.8470

219.0

116.8

203.7

― ―

― ―

20 | P a g e

― ―

November 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday November 30, 2011 Massive Rate Cuts China cut its key interest rate, reserve requirements, a ½ a percent (0.5%) in the first rate cut since 2009. In a coordinated effort between the US Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank the interest rate on Dollar Swaps has been reduced ½% (0.50%) effectively cutting rates a half a percent. The continued indecision by European officials to decisively provide a real solution for their debt and banking issues has prompted this intervention and also forced China to cut rates now instead of at a later date.

In the US ADP’s Non-Farm Payroll report came in much better than expected at 206k, the highest reading since March. Expectations were for an increase of 131k. Last month’s number was also revised higher from 110k to 130k. This is very good news for the US economy as there seems to be a consistent increase in payroll numbers. The official US employment report is due out Friday morning and expectations are for an increase of 119k. If that number comes in a lot higher as did the ADP report, then markets will be very euphoric.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.3452 1.3381 1.3327 1.3256 1.3201

GBP/USD 1.5653 1.5577 1.5517 1.5441 1.5382

263.5

284.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3315 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5596 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.6868 78.3665 77.9078 77.5875 77.1288 163.6

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.9120 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200 ↔ ↓ ↓ 85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9364 0.9290 0.9232 0.9158 0.9100

EUR/CHF 1.2388 1.2327 1.2303 1.2242 1.2217

EUR/JPY 105.2703 104.5855 103.8233 103.1385 102.3763

276.8

179.3

303.9

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9207 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2258 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.7320 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― ―

― ―

― ―

21 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday November 29, 2011 Europe Finance Ministers Meet Yet Again Finance Ministers from all 17 Euro Zone countries are meeting today to try and reach an agreement that would stem the European Union meltdown that is currently unfolding. If a viable solution is not created and implemented soon it could be disastrous for the global economy.

Markets seem to have faith that at the final hour a solution will be adopted and disaster will be avoided. Countries that have the most to lose, Germany and France, are holding out until the very last moment. They do not want to pay for excess borrowing of lesser countries. In the final hour, as everything is falling apart, they will either succumb to making those concessions or the unwinding of the Euro Zone will hurt them more than anyone else. Trading today will be dominated by the finance ministers actions or inaction.

Japan’s Retail Sales showed the best improvement in over a year as Sales increased 1.9%; expectations were for an increase of 0.7%. Contrary to the Retail Sales increases was the release of Household Spending that declined -0.4%; it is the 13th such decline in a row. With Household Spending declining for such a long period and with such veracity it will be hard for Retail Sales to maintain any future increases.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.3416 1.3343 1.3277 1.3204 1.3139

GBP/USD 1.5558 1.5505 1.5464 1.5411 1.5369

291.5

198.4

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2273 77.9795 77.5333 77.2855 76.8393 145.7

USD/CHF 0.9414 0.9357 0.9272 0.9214 0.9129

EUR/CHF 1.2450 1.2391 1.2320 1.2262 1.2191

EUR/JPY 103.7133 103.4035 102.9423 102.6325 102.1713

300.1

272.2

161.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3318 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5508 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.9840 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9224 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2284 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.8600 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

22 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday November 28, 2011 Yet Another Euro Zone Solution As the European Union readies yet another potential set of reforms, markets are once again optimistic with the Euro rallying. Pressure is being put on the ECB to lower rates and issue more bonds. Additionally, there is talk about more controls over countries within the Union to curb future debt. Lower rates and stricter debt controls can only be negative for the Euro. Today’s rally is nothing more than a much needed technical rally.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate report released today came in at the highest level since June.

This is a survey of 2,000 consumers that are asked rate past economic conditions to their expectations for future economic conditions. The number today came in at 5.6; expectations were for 5.2 and last month’s number was 5.4. Overall this reading is encouraging and shows that the German consumer is positive on the future, despite economic troubles in the rest of the EU. Monday, November 28, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5433 77.2805 77.0573 76.7945 76.5713

EUR/USD 1.3556 1.3469 1.3469 1.3381 1.3381

GBP/USD 1.5709 1.5618 1.5600 1.5509 1.5490

183.3

229.5

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3560 1.3233 1.3140 1.2863 1.1464

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5434 1.5388 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.7120 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9767 0.9340 0.9296 0.9104 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2304 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 102.8720 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1464

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

102.1

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9231 0.9202 0.9157 0.9128 0.9083

EUR/CHF 1.2383 1.2331 1.2334 1.2282 1.2285

EUR/JPY 104.4040 103.7630 103.7070 103.0660 103.0100

155.2

102.9

146.4

― ―

― ―

23 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday November 23, 2011 Europe’s PMI’s Signal Slow Down Today was Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) day. HSBC reported China’s PMI at 48.0, the lowest reading this year. Europe, France and Germany also reported their PMI’s with the only bright spot being Germany’s Services PMI coming in at 51.4. This is higher than the expected 50.1 and much higher than last month’s 50.6 reading. Overall none of the other PMI’s came out higher than the magic 50.0 number, which signals economic expansion. In the past 3 months most of the PMI’s have dipped below 50.0.

Also in Europe Industrial New Orders declined -6.4%, this is the largest monthly drop in over four years. It is a predictor of future manufacturing activity as new orders dictate how much companies will ramp up to fill the new orders; certainly an ominous sign for Europe.

In the US Durable Goods Orders came in mixed. The main number declined -0.7% while the Core rate increased 0.7%. Overall the report was positive as the Core rate excludes the volatile airliner orders.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3597 1.3543 1.3487 1.3433 1.3376

GBP/USD 1.5857 1.5733 1.5672 1.5548 1.5488

231.4

387.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3504 1.3382 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1088 76.9995 76.8768 76.7675 76.6448

USD/CHF 0.9241 0.9205 0.9173 0.9137 0.9104

EUR/CHF 1.2439 1.2402 1.2377 1.2340 1.2315

EUR/JPY 104.6885 104.1790 103.7015 103.1920 102.7145

48.7

143.2

130.4

207.3

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5632 1.5521 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 76.9650 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9273 0.9140 0.8938 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2349 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.9450 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

24 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday November 22, 2011 US 3rd Quarter GDP Revised Lower US Third Quarter GDP first reported at the end of October was revised today to 2.0%.

Originally reported at 2.5% the end of October this revision was widely expected to be 2.4%.

2.0% is a much lower surprise bringing down overall GDP for 2011 to 0.9%. This is way too low for economic growth especially coming off several prior years of paltry economic activity.

What this means is many parts of the country are in recession (or depression, depending on your particular economic pain) and other parts are sliding into recession. The US is the economic engine of the world and if it slips into another recession, especially with the problems in Europe, it would hurt everyone.

This report had a muted effect on the Dollar as concerns of European debt issues out way any slowdown in US growth; at least for this particular moment. Currencies are all about what country is better, economically. Even though US growth is poor, Europe’s problems are worse and traders tend to focus on bad things more than good things. Look for continued Dollar support.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2880 77.1010 76.8310 76.6440 76.3740

EUR/USD 1.3688 1.3596 1.3522 1.3429 1.3355

GBP/USD 1.5951 1.5864 1.5801 1.5714 1.5651

349.9

314.6

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3488 1.3382 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.5883 1.5641 1.5521 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 76.8850 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9273 0.9172 0.8938 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2371 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.6880 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/21/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

96.0

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9300 0.9241 0.9163 0.9103 0.9025 288.5

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2458 1.2430 1.2386 1.2358 1.2314

EUR/JPY 104.6613 104.2795 103.8893 103.5075 103.1173

151.2

162.1

― ―

25 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday November 21, 2011 US & EU Leadership Deadlock In the US the Congressional “Super Committee” will announce they have failed to come up with a plan that would cut spending by $1.2 Trillion over 10 years; that is $120 billion per year.

While that is a substantial amount of money, in the whole scope of the country’s debt or deficit it is really minor. Congressional member’s inability to come to an agreement hurts a plethora of people in many ways all around the world. It is this inability that will hold back economic growth in the US as well as globally.

Europe on the other hand continues to evade the necessary solutions that would keep the newly formed economic union together. They have failed to provide solutions that would benefit everyone involved and as a result will end up hurting theirs as well as the whole global economy.

At stake are the two largest economies in the world. The European Union as a whole produces about 30% more than the US. The Euro currency has become a global currency in that many countries outside the EU now accept it as legal tender much like the US Dollar. Additionally, investment in debt instruments from both the US and countries in the EU provide income for many around the globe.

This week will be low volume trading because of the holiday on Thursday in the US. As a consequence volatility will be high if any surprise news items are released about either the US or EU issues.

Monday, November 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.3586 1.3516 1.3468 1.3398 1.3351

GBP/USD 1.5871 1.5813 1.5752 1.5693 1.5632

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1545 77.0570 76.9795 76.8820 76.8045

USD/CHF 0.9289 0.9260 0.9206 0.9177 0.9123

EUR/CHF 1.2478 1.2442 1.2403 1.2367 1.2329

EUR/JPY 104.4485 103.9750 103.6855 103.2120 102.9225

247.6

250.3

36.7

174.5

156.0

160.2

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3512 1.3382 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5786 1.5680 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 76.9080 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9273 0.9173 0.8938 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2396 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.9420 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

26 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday November 18, 2011 Fundamentals Are Dividing the Atlantic A review of this week’s economics, banking issues and debt in Europe continue to weight on current market conditions as well as any potential growth prospects. All the sentiment indicators out of Europe this past week show potential future weakness. ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany, Switzerland and all of Europe all decreased to levels not seen since the Great Recession” officially ended. ZEW Sentiment is a survey of analysts and institutional investors asked to rate their take on future economic activity. They are the ones to know future economic activity as they are immersed in everything that makes up economic growth.

On the other side of the “pond”, U.S. economic activity, while not robust, is showing signs of life. Consumers make up 67% of the U.S. economic activity and this past week two consumer economic reports showed the consumer is still alive and spending. Retail Sales and Housing Starts increased, albeit not a lot but, they did show increases. On the flip side of the economic spectrum manufacturing showed decent increases by way of Industrial Production and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. All of these increases in economic activity happened while inflation showed very little increases. On balance, these facts point to a stronger U.S. and a weaker Europe over time pushing the Euro lower and the Dollar higher.

Friday, November 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3606 1.3527 1.3477 1.3398 1.3349

GBP/USD 1.5857 1.5783 1.5752 1.5679 1.5648

269.6

219.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3457 1.3382 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.3130 77.1940 77.0200 76.9010 76.7270

USD/CHF 0.9270 0.9234 0.9186 0.9150 0.9102

EUR/CHF 1.2432 1.2401 1.2381 1.2350 1.2330

EUR/JPY 104.7830 104.2150 103.8090 103.2410 102.8350

61.5

175.6

107.3

204.5

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5754 1.5680 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 76.9720 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9273 0.9219 0.8938 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2405 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 103.5910 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

27 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday November 17, 2011 U.S. Building Permits Jump Higher Housing Building Permits for October in the U.S. increased more than the expected 0.60M to 0.65M. This is the highest reading since March 2010 when the government housing incentives were coming to an end. Over the last couple ooff months many of the builder surveys have also shown that builders’ have become more optimistic about building new homes. Housing Starts for October came in slightly higher than the expected 0.61M to 0.63M. September’s number was also revised lower to 0.63M 63M from 0.66M offsetting October’s gains. Overall both of these reports are improvements but still lack the advances needed to pull the U.S. housing sector out of its slump.

U.S. Unemployment Claims, people that have made claims for unemployment for the first time, came in this week at 388k; the lowest number since the first week in April. Last week’s number was revised higher from 390k to 393k. During normal economic times this number runs around 300k plus or minus.

28 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday November 16, 2011 U.S. CPI Negative The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in negative -0.1%; expectations were for an unchanged reading. The Core rate came in higher 0.1% as expected and equal to last month’s increase. Inflation at the retail level as well as the wholesale level continues to bounce along at an almost deflationary level. This is impeding growth as it restricts companies’ abilities to increase profits.

Also in the U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization was released this morning. These numbers came in better than expected and better than last month allaying fears of another recession. Capacity Utilization came in at 77.8%; expectations were for 77.6% and last month’s number was 77.3%. This is still a long ways from the robust periods of economic activity when Utilization was above 82%. Industrial Production came in 0.7% higher. Better than the expected increase of 0.4% and much better than last month’s -0.1%.

In England, Unemployment came in at its highest level in many years, 8.3%; expectations were for 8.2% and last month’s number was 8.1%. Economic numbers have been poor in Great Britain for the past few months and now it is beginning to effect employment. Employment always lags economic conditions, the question becomes at what point will it top out?

Wednesday, November 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5023 77.2895 77.0473 76.8345 76.5923

EUR/USD 1.3884 1.3742 1.3666 1.3524 1.3449

GBP/USD 1.6158 1.6014 1.5947 1.5803 1.5735

457.6

443.9

95.5

275.7

184.4

406.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3534 1.3477 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5822 1.5680 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.0240 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9273 0.9149 0.8938 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2386 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 106.7200 104.2510 102.3000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9185 0.9148 0.9054 0.9016 0.8923

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2464 1.2425 1.2376 1.2337 1.2288

EUR/JPY 107.3150 106.0060 105.3810 104.0720 103.4470

― ―

29 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday November 15, 2011 U.S. Retail Sales Higher Retail Sales in the U.S. increased 0.5%; expectations were for an increase of 0.3% but, were less than September’s strong showing of 1.1%. The Core rate came in 0.6% higher; expectations were for an increase of 0.2%. September’s number was revised lower from 0.6% to 0.5%.

Overall, October’s numbers are a fairly good report. Good enough to ward off thoughts of a recession but, not robust enough to talk growth.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) also reported today declined -0.3%, much lower than the expected negative -0.1%. The Core rate, excluding food and energy, came in at unchanged; the lowest reading in a year. Inflation continues to decline on the wholesale level sparking fears of deflation.

Germany and France’s GDP came in much higher than last quarter and slightly better than expectations. Overall, Europe’s GDP came in as expected growing 0.2% for last quarter. The problem remains this is a very low growth rate, low enough to spark fears of a recession. While it is still positive for Germany and France’s GDP growth, it is low enough to surmise that most of Europe is currently in a recession. To top off the fears both Germany and Europe’s ZEW Reports came in at their lowest levels since October 2008. This report is a survey of analysts and institutional investors, people that have advanced knowledge of future economic activity.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3949 1.3887 1.3732 1.3671 1.3516

GBP/USD 1.6231 1.6173 1.6034 1.5976 1.5837

454.4

413.5

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3633 1.3477 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.8973 77.4855 77.2643 76.8525 76.6313

USD/CHF 0.9132 0.9052 0.9002 0.8921 0.8872

EUR/CHF 1.2476 1.2439 1.2379 1.2342 1.2282

132.9

273.8

203.1

212.9

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5908 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.0620 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9084 0.9082 0.8748 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2382 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 105.0350 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 107.1123 106.8415 106.0983 105.8275 105.0843

― ―

30 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday November 14, 2011 Japan Officially Out of Recession Japan’s GDP came in higher 1.5%; this is the first time in a year that GDP has been positive, ending 3 quarters of a recession. With the financial stress of the earthquake and tsunami becoming a memory the focus has shifted to rebuilding. Japan has been stuck in a series of economic advances and contractions lasting only short periods of time for most of the last 20 years. Today the Yen is gaining against most currencies; however, this may be short lived as the BOJ will be pressured to keep a lid on a rising Yen to sustain the growth momentum going.

Europe’s Industrial Production released today came in lower -2.1%. This is the largest decline in over 2 years. Expectations were for a decrease of -2.2% and last month’s number was revised higher from an increase of 1.2% to an increase of 1.4%. Since the actual number came in slightly better than expectations one would think the Euro should gain ground against most currencies. Unfortunately, the actual large decline in Industrial Production is forcing the realty that a recession is brewing thus a devaluation of the currency is necessary.

Monday, November 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.0245 77.8210 77.6605 77.4570 77.2965

EUR/USD 1.3755 1.3690 1.3587 1.3522 1.3418

GBP/USD 1.6046 1.5992 1.5930 1.5875 1.5813

353.6

245.5

76.4

275.9

187.1

262.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3748 1.3477 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6066 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.0920 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9084 0.8994 0.8748 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2370 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 106.0070 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9201 0.9122 0.9070 0.8991 0.8939

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2420 1.2367 1.2331 1.2278 1.2242

EUR/JPY 106.7535 106.2850 105.5055 105.0370 104.2575

― ―

31 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday November 11, 2011 Britain’s Inflation Numbers Decline While a decrease in inflation numbers is usually viewed as a good thing. If that decrease continues to the point of negative inflation numbers, then it can signal deflation, a self feeding spiral that is very hard to stop. Britain’s numbers are broken down into two separate reports; Producer Price Index Input (PPI Input) and PPI Output. The PPI Input is what manufacturers pay for their materials while the PPI Output is prices charged by manufacturers. The PPI Input came in lower negative -0.8% while the PPI Output came in unchanged, 0.0%. The concern is that over the last 6 months both numbers have been declining with the PPI Input having 3 of the last 6 months negative. The PPI Output has not gone negative but it has been very close to unchanged for that same 6 months.

In the continuing saga of Europe’s debt debacle we now have two new leaders, one in Greece and one in Italy. Unfortunately, neither will magically make the debt go away. The Euro rallied slightly yesterday and is again up slightly today. This is nothing more than a good selling opportunity.

Friday, November 11, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3953 1.3712 1.3617 1.3376 1.3282

GBP/USD 1.6179 1.6025 1.5964 1.5810 1.5749

705.2

451.3

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3861 1.3606 1.3477 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/10/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.0878 77.9585 77.7458 77.6165 77.4038

USD/CHF 0.9242 0.9185 0.9053 0.8997 0.8865

EUR/CHF 1.2450 1.2376 1.2328 1.2254 1.2206

EUR/JPY 108.2403 106.5435 105.8923 104.1955 103.5443

71.8

395.2

255.6

493.1

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5934 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.6430 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9084 0.9057 0.8748 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2321 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 105.6690 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

32 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday November 10, 2011 US Trade Balance Improves The Us Trade Balance was anticipated to be -46.1 billion for the month of September. It came in at -43.1 43.1 billion; this is the best showing since December 2010. August’s number was -44.9 billion. The improvement in the Trade Balance means that more goods and services were exported than imported. This helps the US in two ways; first, it increases productivity within the US borders and second, it increases the value of the Dollar as currency has to be exchanged into Dollars to purchase the products and services.

Another trade report released today, the Import Pric Prices, came in at a negative -0.6%.

0.6%. This means that prices paid for imports has declined. This is good for companies and the consumer as it decreases prices for products and services; lowering the inflation rate.

33 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday November 9, 2011 China’s Inflation Drops Significantly One day a month China reports the bulk of their economic data and today is that day. Both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in much lower than expected as well as significantly lower than last month’s numbers. The PPI came in at 5.0%; expectations were for 5.7% and last month’s increase was 6.5%. This is the lowest increase for the PPI in a year. The CPI came in at 5.5%; expectations were for 5.4% and last month’s number was 6.1% higher. This is the lowest increase since May this year. Overall China’s inflation seems to be slowing.

Britain’s Trade Balance came in at -9.8 billion for September; this means imports exceeded exports by this much. This is the greatest difference in the last 4 years. August’s number was also revised much lower to -8.6 billion from -7.6 billion. These decreases can be indicating one of two possible scenarios or both; demand for British products outside of the country has decreased or demand for imported products into the country have increased. A decrease in British products outside the country is not good for Britain’s economic growth as it means less products are being produced. An increase in imported products is good from the since that it shows economic demand and potential economic growth from a spending standpoint. However, increased imports also means monies are not recirculating within the borders spurring economic activity and creating jobs. Numbers this low are really not good.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3915 1.3850 1.3765 1.3700 1.3615

GBP/USD 1.6142 1.6106 1.6042 1.6007 1.5943

314.8

208.3

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3833 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2708 78.1465 78.0608 77.9365 77.8508

USD/CHF 0.9139 0.9086 0.8977 0.8923 0.8814

EUR/CHF 1.2527 1.2483 1.2373 1.2328 1.2219

EUR/JPY 108.7525 108.1370 107.4895 106.8740 106.2265

44.1

341.5

323.8

265.2

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6089 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 77.7150 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9084 0.8948 0.8748 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2377 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.5070 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

34 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday November 8, 2011 Euro Problems Persist Europe’s deeply rooted debt problems every week hinge on some type of vote; either a vote to institute extreme austerity measures or a vote to expel a leader. While their intentions are noble and most certainly trying to please everyone, the intentions are misguided. Country’s like Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland all had leadership issues that created debt issues. Now these debt issues have become unmanageable because of leadership. Unfortunately it is not just one leader that is at fault, the fault lies within how the government’s do business; their persona.

So, today’s vote in Italy will change nothing. It does not make the problem go away. The Euro currency is tied to 17 different governments with 17 distinct societies. Today’s vote will do nothing more than any of the other votes have done; support an over-valued currency. Any rise in the Euro creates a good selling opportunity. Look to sell at the pivot points.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3957 1.3888 1.3799 1.3731 1.3642

GBP/USD 1.6144 1.6108 1.6026 1.5990 1.5909

329.9

247.0

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3775 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.4410 78.3440 78.1600 78.0630 77.8790

USD/CHF 0.8984 0.8927 0.8848 0.8791 0.8712

EUR/CHF 1.2323 1.2289 1.2210 1.2176 1.2098

59.0

285.8

235.8

216.5

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6056 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.0420 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9322 0.9084 0.9005 0.8748 0.8592 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2406 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.5040 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 108.8890 108.5010 107.8580 107.4700 106.8270

― ―

35 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday November 7, 2011 Germany’s Industrial Production Takes Biggest Drop in 2 Years Yet another sign of economic weakness for Europe as Germany’s Industrial Production for September falls 2.7% the largest amount in over 2 years. Expectations were for a decrease of 0.7%. A slight bright spot in the report is that August’s number was revised higher to -0.4% from -1.0%. In either event European Industrial Production is slowing and looks to be slowing too fast. Germany is the largest economy is the European Union and its economy has a great influence on the rest of Europe. This weakness in Industrial Production in Germany can and many times does translate into economic weakness for all of Europe.

European Retail Sales for September came in lower today by -0.7%. Expectations were for an unchanged number from August. Last month’s -0.3% decrease was revised higher to a positive 0.1% thus avoiding two months of declining Retail Sales activity. Over the past 12 months European Retail Sales have been weak. The European consumer has slowed their spending which in turn lowers economic growth; the start of a vicious cycle.

These kind of negative reports do not help the Euro on top of the debt and banking issues already creating uncertainty of the Euro Union single currency.

Monday, November 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3981 1.3911 1.3784 1.3713 1.3586

GBP/USD 1.6185 1.6126 1.6000 1.5940 1.5815

415.2

388.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3791 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.3003 78.1775 78.0303 77.9075 77.7603

USD/CHF 0.8936 0.8849 0.8805 0.8717 0.8673

EUR/CHF 1.2183 1.2154 1.2142 1.2113 1.2101

EUR/JPY 109.0508 108.5495 107.5588 107.0575 106.0668

56.7

276.4

86.1

313.3

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6032 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.2240 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8845 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2198 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.8660 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

36 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday November 4, 2011 U.S. Unemployment Rate Ticks Down The official U.S. Unemployment Rate ticked lower from 9.1% to 9.0% in October. This is a slight improvement over the last five months as the Rate seemed to be stuck at 9.1%. Non-Farm Payrolls, the highly watched data that provides estimated numbered increases in hiring, came in lower than expectations at 80k; expectations were for 97k. What is the bright spot of the report is the revision. For the second month in a row the non-Farm Payroll revision has been significantly higher. September’s number first reported the beginning of October with an increase of 103k was revised today to be 158k; the highest number since May. Overall, this report is not stellar, but it is encouraging. The Dollar should find strength from the numbers.

Canada overshadowed by its neighbor to the south, the U.S., is often ignored that it is the 10th largest economy in the world. While it is often overlooked, Canada is still a formidable economic force. Today they also reported their employment situation and it came in considerably worse than expectations. Expectations were for an increase in payrolls of 16.3k and the actual number came in at a negative -54.0k. Over the past 2 years, since the recession in 2009, there have been single months where employment has come in with a large negative number; however, not this large. Additionally, the unemployment percentage also increased to 7.3% from last month’s 7.1%; expectations were for an increase to 7.2%. This is not a good report and while it is a lagging indicator is still troubling. The Canadian Dollar has sold off against most major currencies on the news.

Friday, November 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.5840 78.3020 78.1180 77.8360 77.6520

EUR/USD 1.3930 1.3843 1.3739 1.3652 1.3548

GBP/USD 1.6096 1.6014 1.5965 1.5883 1.5834

400.9

275.1

97.9

232.5

88.8

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3812 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6033 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.0410 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8783 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2133 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/3/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.8952 0.8890 0.8842 0.8779 0.8731

EUR/CHF 1.2197 1.2170 1.2155 1.2127 1.2112

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

EUR/JPY 108.3615 107.8370 107.3575 106.8330 106.3535 210.8

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.8000 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000 ↔ ↔ ↓

― ―

37 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday November 3, 2011 ECB Lowers Interest Rates As pressure mounts in the European debt and banking crises coupled with slowing economic indicators the European Central Bank (ECB) today took away one of its interest rate hikes it made in the first six months of the year. The ECB raised rates in the first half of the year by ½% to combat what it called strong inflationary pressures. Since that time inflation within the Euro Zone has continued to increase while economic activity shows signs of slowing down. Short term rates are now 1.25%. This action will put additional downward pressure on the Euro.

U.S. Unemployment Claims reported for last week came in at 397k, still very high. The weekly clams have been above 350k for over 3 years. This means that every week there have been at least 350k new people filing for unemployment. The concern is that eventually as people do not find work it will affect push the total unemployment rate higher. Tomorrow the U.S. Department of Labor reports the unemployment number. This will have an effect on all markets.

Thursday, November 03, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.3930 78.8430 78.4240 77.8740 77.4550

EUR/USD 1.3980 1.3828 1.3718 1.3565 1.3455

GBP/USD 1.6171 1.6047 1.5968 1.5844 1.5766

551.9

425.5

203.5

409.5

150.6

577.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3747 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5949 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.0690 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8835 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2148 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.3340 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9060 0.8966 0.8865 0.8771 0.8670

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2234 1.2186 1.2163 1.2114 1.2091

EUR/JPY 110.3443 108.6975 107.5923 105.9455 104.8403

― ―

38 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday November 2, 2011 ADP Non-Farm Employment Higher U.S. payroll company ADP reported this morning its figures for employment growth. It says the country added 110k new jobs last month. September’s number was also significantly revised higher to 116k from 91k. While these numbers are still historically very low the good news is they are not negative, where the economy would be shedding jobs. Also, September’s revision coming in considerably higher than first reported is a very positive sign. For this number to have significant meaning it would have to be consistently above 350k every month. Friday the U.S. Department of Labor reports its assessment; expectations are for 98k.

Britain’s Construction PMI came in at 53.9; this is the highest reading since June and considerably better than last month’s number of 50.1. On balance British economic numbers have been poor, but not overly poor. With the British government’s string of austerity measures economic conditions could be decisively worse.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4270 1.4030 1.3929 1.3688 1.3587

GBP/USD 1.6273 1.6179 1.6071 1.5978 1.5870

716.7

422.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3697 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 11/1/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.8205 80.1540 77.8565 76.1900 73.8925

USD/CHF 0.8907 0.8852 0.8731 0.8676 0.8555

EUR/CHF 1.2253 1.2190 1.2165 1.2103 1.2078

EUR/JPY 113.3725 110.6180 108.8055 106.0510 104.2385

832.4

370.2

183.5

959.1

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.5946 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.3540 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8868 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2150 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 107.3230 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

39 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday November 1, 2011 Surprise Greek Poll Sends Markets Lower Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou has called for referendum regarding Greece’s bailout. This surprise request has sent a clear message by Greece that it is not happy with the changes made last week by the European Union which forces Greece to usher in more austerity measures even though their debt is being cut. Germany responded with harsh words setting up, once again, uncertainty about the future of the European Union. The Euro is down sharply.

Two Purchasing Managers Indices were reported this morning for China, one from the Chinese government (50.4 lower than expectations) and the other from HSBC (51.0). Both showed slightly less anticipated future purchases by managers then last month’s survey. Both were still above 50 but, only slightly.

The Royal Bank of Australia, Australia’s Central Bank, lowered interest rates ¼ point citing slower economic activity around the globe. Really their fear is more directed at slowing economic numbers from both Japan and China, their two biggest trading partners. The Australian Dollar is lower against most major currencies.

Britain’s third quarter GDP came in this morning with an increase of 0.5%, slightly better than expectations of 0.4% and better than last quarter’s 0.1% increase. While not robust it is still positive given the austerity measures implemented by the British government.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4224 1.4181 1.4157 1.4114 1.4090

GBP/USD 1.6198 1.6163 1.6117 1.6082 1.6036

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.1248 75.9315 75.7988 75.6055 75.4728

169.9

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6078 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 80.3200 79.5100 78.1720 75.5400 75.5400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8764 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2147 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 113.4300 111.5900 108.3580 104.8000 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

― ―

114.2

EUR/JPY 108.1448 107.6015 107.3418 106.7985 106.5388

140.5

85.5200 ―

118.2

EUR/CHF 1.2264 1.2230 1.2210 1.2176 1.2156

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4178 1.3975 1.3859 1.3648 1.3364 1.1620

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/31/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

68.5

USD/CHF 0.8680 0.8652 0.8623 0.8596 0.8567

168.6

― ―

40 | P a g e

― ―

October 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday October 31, 2011 BOJ Intervenes To Curb Yen Rise For weeks the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been threatening to sell Yen and this morning it finally made good on those threats. After the Yen made new lows against the Dollar, the BOJ started buying Dollars driving the USD/JPY to 7950. They have since allowed the market to recover now holding around 7800. While this is a decent move for the USD/JPY it is not enough to curb the speculative Yen buying that the BOJ wants to quash. Eventually they will need to peg to a certain Dollar amount much like the Swiss National Bank did with Franc against the Euro.

Europe’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment Rate both came in higher than expected with Unemployment showing the most disturbing gains. Unemployment was expected to tick lower to 10.0% from last month’s 10.1%. Instead the number came in 10.2% higher.

Inflation as measured by the CPI came in at 3.0%; expectations were for an increase of 2.9%.

Last month’s number was also higher by 3.0%. Overall, the higher inflation number coupled with the gain in unemployment is signaling a potential slowdown for Europe. These numbers are weighting on the Euro; it is down against the Dollar and the Pound.

At 9:45 am ET today the Chicago Purchasing Managers report will be released. Expectations are for a reading of 59.2 after last month’s 60.4 number. This is one of the most watched leading economic indicators. A number above 50 signals economic expansion while below 50 signals contraction.

Monday, October 31, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4150 1.4137 1.3967 1.3955 1.3785

GBP/USD 1.6151 1.6111 1.6000 1.5960 1.5849

383.0

316.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.4383 1.4321 1.4145 1.3861 1.3795 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.6343 76.3465 76.0253 75.7375 75.4163

USD/CHF 0.8879 0.8769 0.8749 0.8639 0.8618

EUR/CHF 1.2335 1.2283 1.2220 1.2168 1.2104

127.9

273.6

242.1

299.7

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6502 1.6273 1.6115 1.5888 1.5302 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 75.8240 75.7400 75.7400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9293 0.8921 0.8628 0.8525 0.8257 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2207 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 107.2640 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

EUR/JPY 107.5730 107.5490 106.1460 106.1220 104.7190

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

41 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday October 27, 2011 U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP Higher Preliminary 3rd Quarter GDP came in up 2.5%, slightly higher than the expected 2.4% increase.

This is much better than the revised 2nd Quarter number being up only 1.3%. For the year 2011, GDP is up; however, there is still the 4th Quarter yet to be reported. The second half of the report is the GDP Price Index which came in with an increase of 2.5%, also slightly higher than expectations. This is the broadest measure of inflation and this release is the highest since 1st Quarter 2009. Overall this is a fairly good GDP report.

Japan’s Retail Sales came in down -1.2% on a year-over-year basis. As the country struggles to recover from the tsunami and earthquake this number should have been more robust with people replacing items lost. While these two events physically only effected the northern part of Japan it should still have boosted economic activity raising Retail Sales. The question then becomes is the rest of the country too weak offsetting increased buying in the northern part of the country?

Europe finance ministers and heads of State came to an agreement early this morning that would bolster the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to €1 trillion and force bond holders to write down Greek debt by 50%. Now it just has to all be implemented.

Thursday, October 27, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.6013 76.3485 76.0393 75.7865 75.4773

EUR/USD 1.4005 1.3957 1.3903 1.3855 1.3800

GBP/USD 1.6081 1.6041 1.5998 1.5958 1.5916

214.8

173.0

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3904 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6107 1.6078 1.5974 1.5674 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.1510 75.7400 75.7400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9278 0.9093 0.8811 0.8646 0.8548 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2250 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.9020 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/26/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

118.0

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.8867 0.8816 0.8793 0.8742 0.8719

EUR/CHF 1.2305 1.2247 1.2226 1.2169 1.2148

EUR/JPY 106.8458 106.3205 105.7938 105.2685 104.7418

155.6

164.4

220.9

― ―

― ―

42 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday October 26, 2011 US Durable Goods Orders Mixed The Core rate, excluding aircraft, came in much higher than expectations of 0.5% at 1.7%. This is the best increase in the core rate since December 2010. Including aircraft, Durable Goods were down -0.8%. Overall, this is normally a volatile number and for the last year both the Core rate and the whole number have been lower. Not a positive for the U.S. economy.

Britain’s CBI Industrial Orders Expectations were reported lower at -18 this morning. This is much less than the expected -8 as well as the -9 from last month. This is a survey of about 550 manufacturers asking their expectations for business orders over the next 3 months. In the last 12 months it has been positive 3 times and never more than +5. The survey is a leading indicator for future business activity. The Pound is lower on the news.

Of course today is the big day for the European Union Economic Summit. Expectations are running very high that a complete resolution will be announced and it will address Greece’s debt woes, future spreading of debt issues to other countries, and also solve the European banking issues. More than likely any resolutions that do come out of the summit will be less than expectations. Germany is the richest country and the majority of the people have voiced they do not want to financially support other countries debts. Chancellor Merkel has made it clear she will do anything to save the Union, but she is feeling pressure from constituents not to do too much.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4043 1.3996 1.3909 1.3862 1.3774

GBP/USD 1.6083 1.6050 1.5975 1.5943 1.5867

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.6523 76.3405 76.1603 75.8485 75.6683

USD/CHF 0.8906 0.8849 0.8820 0.8763 0.8734

EUR/CHF 1.2344 1.2305 1.2267 1.2228 1.2191

EUR/JPY 107.2030 106.6250 105.8830 105.3050 104.5630

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

281.8 EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3906 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

226.2 GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6107 1.6078 1.6000 1.5674 1.5245 1.4999

103.3 USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.0800 75.7400 75.7400 74.9200

180.6 USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9278 0.9093 0.8779 0.8646 0.8548 0.8031

160.9 EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2208 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

277.2 EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.8150 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

43 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday October 25, 2011 Britain’s Current Account Rises Unexpectedly Britain’s Current Account deficit was expected to come in down -9.7 billion; however, it came in at its highest level since March. March’s report was only -1.7 billion and this quarter’s report came in at -2.0. These are the best numbers seen in years for the Current Account. While the numbers look good the meaning behind the numbers may be more ominous. In order to have a higher number, country inflows of capital would have to be more than country outflows. In this report the culprit was the total income surplus widening from £7.4 billion to £9.6 billion. The Pound moved little after the news.

The GfK German Consumer Climate while not a huge report still carries some weight as it is a survey of over 2,000 consumers. It was reported this morning that the survey had a value of 5.3, the best reading in 3 months. In better times the survey would have numbers in the sevens or eights.

At 10 am ET today in the U.S. the Conference Board reports its take on Consumer Confidence.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.3868 76.7565 76.2738 75.6435 75.1608

EUR/USD 1.4042 1.3979 1.3841 1.3779 1.3641

GBP/USD 1.6124 1.6056 1.5905 1.5837 1.5685

421.3

460.3

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3929 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6107 1.6078 1.5997 1.5674 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.0960 75.7400 75.7400 74.9200

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9278 0.9093 0.8807 0.8646 0.8548 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2267 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.9810 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

233.7

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.8999 0.8899 0.8852 0.8752 0.8705

EUR/CHF 1.2385 1.2313 1.2260 1.2187 1.2134

EUR/JPY 106.7493 106.3145 105.6593 105.2245 104.5693

308.3

263.8

228.9

― ―

― ―

44 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday October 24, 2011 European PMI Releases Lower Bias The monthly slew of Purchasing Manager’s indices for Europe were reported this morning with slightly lower than expected numbers. Overall only one of the indices came in higher than the meaningful 50 number and that was the German Services Index. The rest were all below 50 signaling weaker manufacturing and service sectors in the near future. Last month’s data was revised lower leaving only 2 out of the 6 reports above 50. This is bearish for both the European stock markets and the Euro. These are leading indicators for future growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

European Industrial New Orders released this morning came in with an increase of 1.9% considerably better than expectations and a whole lot better than last month’s upwardly revised number of negative -1.6%. Expectations were for an increase of only 0.1%. This number is a fairly volatile number and must be looked at over several months to smooth out the volatility.

Over the past 6 months Industrial new Orders have increased 2.1%. While this is not great it does signal that industrial new orders are progressing; a positive for the European economy.

Monday, October 24, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3950 1.3872 1.3764 1.3686 1.3578

GBP/USD 1.5888 1.5851 1.5766 1.5729 1.5644

391.0

256.2

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3895 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/21/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2383 76.9845 76.8283 76.5745 76.4183

USD/CHF 0.9125 0.9013 0.8970 0.8859 0.8816

EUR/CHF 1.2498 1.2395 1.2337 1.2234 1.2176

EUR/JPY 107.1080 106.5040 105.6900 105.0860 104.2720

86.1

323.6

338.1

297.8

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.6107 1.6078 1.5950 1.5674 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.2060 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9278 0.9093 0.8820 0.8646 0.8548 0.8031

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2258 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.9100 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↔ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

45 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday October 21, 2011 Germany’s Ifo Report Shows Yet Another Decline Germany’s Ifo Business Climate report released today came in at 106.4. This very large survey of over 7,000 businesses peaked in May and June over readings of 114. Since then it has steadily declined to today’s number, the lowest reading in 14 months. The size of survey makes the report a good leading indicator of future economic activity. With the recent steady decline in the number, Germany can expect slowed economic activity.

All eyes and ears are once again on Europe as heads of state and finance people continue to work for a solution to the debt and banking crises. Meetings that were scheduled for Sunday have now been put off until Wednesday next week; not really a positive sign. A solution will have to present itself soon as markets are growing tired if the inactivity. More than likely the solution will not be what everyone is expecting but, will be enough to suspend complete financial debacle for another couple of months. This will keep the Euro volatile with a downward bias.

Friday, October 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3921 1.3831 1.3777 1.3687 1.3633

GBP/USD 1.5924 1.5849 1.5771 1.5696 1.5618

302.4

321.3

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3779 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/20/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.9750 76.8950 76.7730 76.6930 76.5710

USD/CHF 0.9099 0.9071 0.9010 0.8983 0.8922

EUR/CHF 1.2539 1.2482 1.2416 1.2359 1.2292

42.4

185.8

259.1

254.7

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5790 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.7770 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8936 0.8916 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2315 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.7740 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

EUR/JPY 107.0063 106.2705 105.7933 105.0575 104.5803

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

46 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday October 20, 2011 Germany’s Producer Prices Higher Germany’s PPI came in higher than expected and much higher than last month’s negative number. Inflation at the wholesale level as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in with an increase of 0.3%; expectations were for an increase of 0.2% and last month the PPI declined by -0.3%. Overall for the last 12 month period Germany’s PPI has increased over 5.5%. This is an extreme concern for a county, like Germany, that is very inflation sensitive.

UK Retail Sales came in at 0.6%, higher than the expected unchanged and much higher than last month’s negative -0.4% reading. Last month’s negative -0.2% number was revised lower to the 0.4% reading. This number fluctuates greatly from month to month so, looking at it over a 6 or 12 month period gives a more accurate picture of Retail Sales. For the past 12 months UK Retail Sales have increased less than a half of a percent; less than 0.5%.

At 10 am ET today the U.S. is expected to report Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Both of these numbers are important for future economic activity.

Existing Home Sales provide insight into consumer’s confidence to make the largest purchase of their life, a new home – additionally this report provides a closer look at the foreclosure sale activity. Also, the Philly Fed Index provides an insight into recent manufacturing’s increases. If this report shows an increase it will be on top of several manufacturing reports that have shown increases over the past few months.

Thursday, October 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3907 1.3833 1.3743 1.3669 1.3578

GBP/USD 1.5908 1.5806 1.5718 1.5617 1.5529

345.7

397.5

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3758 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/19/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.0695 76.9530 76.7855 76.6690 76.5015

USD/CHF 0.9094 0.9037 0.8991 0.8934 0.8888

EUR/CHF 1.2406 1.2384 1.2356 1.2334 1.2307

EUR/JPY 106.9860 106.3420 105.5540 104.9100 104.1220

59.6

215.9

104.4

300.7

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5772 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.7880 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9027 0.8916 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2421 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.6640 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

47 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday October 19, 2011 U.S. Housing Starts Jump Housing Starts for September came in at 660k, higher than expectations and the highest in 18 months. Unfortunately Building Permits, a precursor to future Starts, came in at 590k; the lowest increase since the month of March.

Also in the U.S. consumer inflation as reported by the CPI, came in higher 0.3% as expected.

Core inflation came in slightly lower than expectations with a rise of 0.1%. These numbers are somewhat subdued with inflation running on a 12 month basis around 3.8% higher than the previous 12 months. The PPI reported yesterday was surprisingly higher and usually takes a couple of months to work its way into the consumer number. Overall, yesterday’s PPI and today’s CPI are running high compared to U.S. growth as measured by GDP. Europe’s Current Account came in at -5.0 billion. This is higher than expectations of -7.3 billion and higher than July’s -6.8 billion reported last month. July’s number was also revised higher from -12.9 billion. The last few months of higher reported numbers would seem bullish on the surface for the Euro; however, looking deeper into the numbers the imported price of oil declined those months bringing down overall import amounts causing the Current Account to increase.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.7683 77.2425 76.9193 76.3935 76.0703

EUR/USD 1.3967 1.3831 1.3778 1.3642 1.3589

GBP/USD 1.5885 1.5805 1.5767 1.5688 1.5650

396.3

246.3

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3751 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5711 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.8110 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8986 0.8916 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2359 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.6240 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

178.3

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9081 0.9050 0.8965 0.8934 0.8849

EUR/CHF 1.2412 1.2377 1.2360 1.2325 1.2308

EUR/JPY 108.3353 106.6895 106.0233 104.3775 103.7113

243.2

108.8

485.5

― ―

― ―

48 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday October 18, 2011 ZEW Sentiment Continues to Sink Both Germany and Europe’s ZEW Sentiment came in lower than expectations as well as last month’s reading. These reports are surveys of institutional investors and analysts asking for their opinion of the next 6 months of economic activity. Any reading below 0.0 is considered bearish and above 0.0 bullish. This is now the 5th consecutive month of lower readings with each month lower than the previous month. The last time readings were this low was just months before the Lehman collapse.

U.S. Wholesale inflation, as measured by the PPI came in much higher than expected with an increase of 0.8%; the Core rate came in higher 0.2%. On a yearly basis the PPI has increased less than 3.0%, below what most consider to be bad and sufficiently high enough to extinguish fears of deflation.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.7533 77.4465 77.1323 76.8255 76.5113

EUR/USD 1.4010 1.3956 1.3840 1.3786 1.3670

GBP/USD 1.5935 1.5890 1.5805 1.5760 1.5676

357.2

272.4

130.4

223.2

128.1

388.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3736 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5742 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.8210 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8992 0.8916 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2352 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 105.5130 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9044 0.8972 0.8937 0.8866 0.8831

EUR/CHF 1.2438 1.2404 1.2377 1.2343 1.2316

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

EUR/JPY 108.6120 107.9350 106.7610 106.0840 104.9100

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

49 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday October 17, 2011 U.S. Industrial Production Rises Industrial Production for the U.S. was expected to increase 0.2% and the actual number came in as expected, up 0.2%. This is now the 5th consecutive increase providing for a 1.6% increase over the last 6 months. The importance of this number is that production is increasing thus limiting the potential for a decrease in GDP or a recession.

Also in the U.S. the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in negative for the 5th straight month. This is a survey of about 200 businesses in New York City conducted by the New York Federal Reserve that asks respondents to rate general business conditions. A reading below 0.0 is considered economically negative and above 0.0 economically positive. Today’s report came in at negative -8.5.

Monday, October 17, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3907 1.3847 1.3766 1.3706 1.3625

GBP/USD 1.5862 1.5823 1.5744 1.5706 1.5627

295.9

246.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3875 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5443 77.1925 76.9293 76.5775 76.3143

USD/CHF 0.9093 0.9036 0.8981 0.8924 0.8870

EUR/CHF 1.2410 1.2396 1.2361 1.2346 1.2312

129.2

234.4

103.5

304.1

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5821 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 77.2020 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8918 0.8916 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2375 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.2600 107.1470 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 107.3385 106.6590 105.8905 105.2110 104.4425

― ―

50 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday October 14, 2011 U.S. Retail Sales Much Higher Than Expected U.S. Retail Sales came in higher 1.1%; expectations were for an increase of 0.5%. August’s number was also revised higher from unchanged to an increase of 0.3%. The Core number furthermore increased more than expected coming in with an increase of 0.6%; expectations were for an increase of 0.2%. August’s Core number was also revised higher from an increase of 0.1% to 0.5%. This is encouraging for the overall economy as September is typically a slow retail sales month.

European Consumer Prices came in this morning at 3.0%. This is the highest level since a string of higher inflation reports in early 2008, just before the last recession. Europe measures their inflation numbers on a year-over-year basis so, that 3.0% is for the last 12 month period. This is the highest reported yearly number since November 2008. Core inflation came in at 1.6%, a tenth of a percent higher than expectations. This increase is in line with increases over the past 6 months.

China also reported their inflation numbers, measured on a year-over-year basis. The Consumer Price Index came in with a 6.1% increase meeting expectations and just slightly lower than last month’s 6.2% increase. The PPI came in at 6.5%; slightly lower than the increase of 7.0% expected. Both of these numbers are in line with increases reported over the last 6 months.

Friday, October 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4001 1.3917 1.3750 1.3666 1.3499

GBP/USD 1.5968 1.5883 1.5712 1.5628 1.5457

527.1

536.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3777 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2455 77.8430 77.0735 76.6710 75.9015

USD/CHF 0.9175 0.9046 0.8982 0.8853 0.8788

EUR/CHF 1.2452 1.2391 1.2356 1.2294 1.2259

246.1

406.1

203.1

598.5

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5765 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.8860 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8980 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2371 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.0100 105.9430 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 108.9298 107.9655 106.0798 105.1155 103.2298

― ―

51 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday October 13, 2011 Swiss PPI Lower for 5th Consecutive Month The Swiss Producer Price Index released this morning came in lower than expectations at -0.1%; expectations were for a gain of 0.2%. While this might seem like a good thing, lower wholesale prices, it also signals deflationary pressures. In a country that has had good stable growth compared to its neighbors, this could become a problem affecting future GDP and consequently lowering the value of its currency the Franc.

China’s Trade Balance came in at 14.5 billion; the third consecutive declining month. Since the first of the year China’s Trade Balance has gone from a deficit of -7.3 billion in February to a surplus of 31.5 billion in July. China is a high exporting nation; these changes in their Trade Balances can give an indication of global economic health.

The U.S. Trade Balance, also released today, came in at -45.6 billion; slightly more than expectations of -46.0. Unlike China, the U.S. imports more than it exports and consistently runs a trade deficit.

Overall these numbers are important to the currency of each nation as trade for goods and services are paid for in the nation’s currency. The amount of trade directly influences the value of each currency. A country that buys more then it sells will cause greater demand for its currency.

Thursday, October 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.8095 76.7180 76.6555 76.5640 76.5015

EUR/USD 1.3750 1.3699 1.3632 1.3580 1.3513

GBP/USD 1.5693 1.5622 1.5598 1.5528 1.5504

248.4

198.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3992 1.3950 1.3792 1.3586 1.3150 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5937 1.5897 1.5756 1.5330 1.5245 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 77.2570 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.8950 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2342 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 108.3200 107.0100 106.5440 105.0100 100.5400 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/12/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

32.3

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9176 0.9134 0.9079 0.9037 0.8982

EUR/CHF 1.2476 1.2438 1.2376 1.2337 1.2276

EUR/JPY 105.3673 104.9625 104.4873 104.0825 103.6073

203.3

210.6

184.8

― ―

― ―

52 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday October 12, 2011 No Report Today Wednesday, October 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3910 1.3802 1.3589 1.3481 1.3269

GBP/USD 1.5798 1.5747 1.5637 1.5586 1.5476

673.1

337.9

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3639 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.9675 76.8110 76.6865 76.5300 76.4055

USD/CHF 0.9358 0.9172 0.9087 0.8900 0.8815

EUR/CHF 1.2479 1.2392 1.2347 1.2260 1.2215

EUR/JPY 106.4660 105.6870 104.2060 103.4270 101.9460

59.0

570.4

277.2

474.6

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5575 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.6410 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9085 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2392 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 104.5280 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

53 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday October 11, 2011 British Manufacturing Production Slides for 3rd Month The Manufacturing Production number is inflation adjusted and considered a key British leading economic indicator. Today’s report is for August and came in with a decline of -0.3%. July’s number was also revised lower to a negative -0.2% from a positive 0.1% increase. Overall this is the third month in a row of that Manufacturing Production has declined. The last time there was a 3 month or more decline was in the beginning of 2009, the last official recession.

The Euro is under pressure this morning as the last remaining Euro nation, Slovakia, is expected to vote on the changes made to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) July 21, 2011.

All 17 members of the EU need to ratify the proposed changes. It is widely expected that the first vote by Slovakia’s lawmakers will fail and that another vote will be called for and passed in the next couple of days. The changes are structured to aid Greece by cutting their bond repayments by 21%.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.0823 76.9385 76.7583 76.6145 76.4343

EUR/USD 1.3580 1.3466 1.3413 1.3300 1.3247

GBP/USD 1.5770 1.5672 1.5547 1.5449 1.5324

349.9

467.9

68.0

293.0

178.7

271.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3642 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5666 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.6770 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9036 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2326 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 104.5610 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/10/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9383 0.9342 0.9244 0.9202 0.9104

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2479 1.2452 1.2394 1.2366 1.2309

EUR/JPY 104.2660 103.3860 102.9720 102.0920 101.6780

― ―

54 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday October 10, 2011 European Investor Sentiment Drops for 3rd Month in a Row The European Sentix Investor Confidence survey of 2800 respondents released this morning showed the third decline in the survey to -18.5. The survey asks investors and analysts to rate the next 6 months of economic activity. Readings above zero indicate expansion and below contraction. This is the first time since July 2010 there has been 3 consecutive negative reports and the first time since October 2009 there have been 3 consecutive reports of this magnitude.

While this would normally cause the Euro to sell off, the Euro is experiencing a strong rally today as a meeting Sunday by French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel has once again revived a solution to the European debt and banking crises. They made a joint announcement yesterday stating they are prepared to do whatever it takes to hold the Union together and to help out Greece. They have given a time line of 3 weeks to have creditable solution in place. Many questions remain as they did not lay out any plan. They have made announcements like this before only to end in non-action. It may end up being too little too late.

French Industrial Production came in higher than expected at 0.5%; expectations were for a decrease of -0.7% after last month’s number was revised higher to 1.8%. Over the past 6 months French Industrial Production has increased about 1.5%; certainly not robust by any standards.

Monday, October 10, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2428 76.9725 76.7968 76.5265 76.3508

EUR/USD 1.3480 1.3454 1.3357 1.3332 1.3234

GBP/USD 1.5545 1.5501 1.5447 1.5403 1.5349

257.9

206.0

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3439 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5538 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.6730 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9199 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2741 1.2482 1.2361 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 103.0470 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

93.7

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9305 0.9265 0.9209 0.9168 0.9112

EUR/CHF 1.2453 1.2412 1.2314 1.2274 1.2175

EUR/JPY 103.5715 103.3230 102.4705 102.2220 101.3695

202.9

291.5

231.2

― ―

― ―

55 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday October 6, 2011 BOE Raises Quantitative Easing Program The Bank of England raised its bond buying program from $200 billion to $274 billion. The Pound Sterling fell on the unexpected news and over time will likely depress the pound further.

The BOE left interest rates at 0.5% providing future ammunition to stimulate the economy if inflation recedes as expected in 2012.

German Factory Orders came in lower than expected at negative -1.4%; expectations were for an increase of 0.2% and last month’s reading was revised to a slightly higher negative number 2.6% still lower from the prior month. There has not been two consecutive negative months since the spring of 2009.

U.S. Unemployment Claims reported this morning came in above 400k at 401k and last week’s number was revised higher from 391k to 395k. The continually high new unemployment claims every week coupled with less hiring will eventually move the unemployment rate higher.

Thursday, October 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2235 77.0240 76.7715 76.5720 76.3195

EUR/USD 1.3526 1.3459 1.3302 1.3236 1.3079

GBP/USD 1.5606 1.5563 1.5451 1.5407 1.5296

469.1

326.1

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3348 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5459 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.7890 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9230 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2388 1.2350 1.2319 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 102.4830 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

94.9

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9298 0.9220 0.9183 0.9105 0.9068

EUR/CHF 1.2370 1.2305 1.2216 1.2150 1.2061

EUR/JPY 104.1590 103.5180 102.1320 101.4910 100.1050

240.9

325.3

425.7

― ―

― ―

56 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday October 5, 2011 U.S. ADP Payrolls Higher ADP, the payroll service company, released their non-farm payroll estimate for September at 91k; a slight increase over last month’s 89k and higher than expectations of 76k. Some analysts regard this report as a precursor to the government’s report on the first Friday of the month.

While there is not a direct monthly correlation for the size of the non-farm payrolls, there is a longer term correlation as to whether employment is increasing or decreasing.

A couple of negative surprises from Europe this morning as the final revision for Great Britain’s 2nd quarter GDP came in at 0.1%, a tenth of a percent lower than expectations and previously reported. Additionally, European Retail Sales came in at a negative -0.3%; expectations were for -0.2% and last month’s reading was an increase of 0.2%.

Wednesday, October 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3438 1.3282 1.3224 1.3068 1.3011

GBP/USD 1.5624 1.5511 1.5469 1.5355 1.5313

449.2

327.4

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3347 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5000 76.9900 76.7470 76.2370 75.9940

USD/CHF 0.9320 0.9285 0.9181 0.9146 0.9042

EUR/CHF 1.2186 1.2162 1.2141 1.2117 1.2096

EUR/JPY 103.7938 102.0835 101.5138 99.8035 99.2338

158.1

291.9

94.5

478.8

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5486 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.7980 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9162 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2388 1.2350 1.2229 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 102.4990 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

57 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday October 4, 2011 European Financials Unraveling History is repeating itself. Just as within weeks of the Lehman collapse, Lehman went from stating everything was fine to admitting they had financial issues to we will not be able to meet our next debt obligation if we do not receive help. Help never came and Lehman filed bankruptcy. Greece has been saying all along they are fine to this week admitting they will be out of money by the middle of November. In the mean time systemic risk continues to build amongst banks and other countries. Just as in Lehman’s case there is a point of no return and Europe is quickly reaching that point. As time progresses and there is no meaningful resolution the Euro will continue to lose against all major currencies and the risk of financial collapse grows higher.

Britain’s Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index came in just barely above 50 at 50.1; expectations were for 51.7 and last month’s reading was 52.6. This is the lowest reading since December’s number was reported in January. The Pound is down against most major currencies.

U.S. Factory Orders are to be released at 10 am ET and expectations are for an increase of 0.2%; last month there was an increase of 2.4%.

Tuesday, October 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.6613 77.4165 76.9503 76.7055 76.2393

EUR/USD 1.3645 1.3473 1.3428 1.3256 1.3211

GBP/USD 1.5715 1.5632 1.5582 1.5499 1.5449

456.1

279.5

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3175 1.3069 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5431 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 76.6220 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9256 0.9215 0.8921 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2388 1.2350 1.2139 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 100.9440 99.9000 99.9000 99.9000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 10/3/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

149.3

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9181 0.9153 0.9058 0.9031 0.8936

EUR/CHF 1.2234 1.2191 1.2157 1.2114 1.2080

EUR/JPY 104.8135 103.7060 103.3635 102.2560 101.9135

257.0

161.5

304.5

― ―

― ―

58 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday October 3, 2011 Greece Once Again Takes Center Stage Greece’s finance minister made comments today admitting Greece’s deficit will be 8.5% of GDP instead of the previous estimate of 7.8%. Greek GDP is now expected to contract -5.5% for fiscal year 2011. Without the next tranche of European loans, Greece will fail to pay all its bills by mid-October; essentially a default.

Japan’s Tankan Index came out this morning showing expectations for improved manufacturing conditions; this is a survey of over 1200 businesses asking their expectations for future business.

The non-manufacturing index came in slightly less than expectations; however it was still positive. Last month’s reading was negative for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing.

At 10 am ET today the Institute for Supply Management will release its Purchasing Managers index for September. Expectations are for 50.5 after August’s report showed an index of 50.6; anything over 50 is considered expansion. Over the past couple of months the index has been hovering just above 50.

Monday, October 03, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3757 1.3676 1.3598 1.3517 1.3438

GBP/USD 1.5800 1.5713 1.5627 1.5540 1.5454

334.5

363.7

EUR/USD 1.4395 1.3868 1.3686 1.3385 1.3239 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/30/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.3823 77.1335 76.7683 76.5195 76.1543

USD/CHF 0.9072 0.9021 0.8969 0.8917 0.8865

EUR/CHF 1.2234 1.2213 1.2198 1.2177 1.2162

EUR/JPY 105.9033 105.2655 104.2843 103.6465 102.6653

128.9

217.4

75.6

340.0

GBP/USD 1.6622 1.5777 1.5714 1.5582 1.5323 1.5320 1.4999

USD/JPY 84.4700 79.1700 77.6800 77.0320 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.9899 0.9419 0.9177 0.9078 0.8892 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.3204 1.2388 1.2350 1.2154 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 120.9500 106.6000 105.5000 103.1020 101.9600 99.9000 99.9000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.4999

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

59 | P a g e

― ―

September 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday September 30, 2011 European Inflation Highest in 3 Years European inflation, the CPI for all of Europe, came in today at 3.0% the highest reading since October 2008. This is an annualized number reported monthly. Normally this would move the markets, especially give support to the Euro in light of 2 interest rate increases this year to combat inflation. However, the focus has been on the European debt crises and Germany’s Bundestag vote yesterday to increase its participation by €88 billion. So far every country has ratified an increase. The Euro climbed yesterday after the vote but has since sold off in the wake of disbelief that the European Financial Stability Facility will not be large enough to support a financial meltdown.

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer came in today at 1.21, the lowest reading in 2 years.

Switzerland’s economy continues to show signs of a slowdown, now the concern has shifted to is it slowing down too much too fast?

At 9:45 am ET today the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Manger’s index is released and expected to show a slight decrease from last month’s 56.5 to 55.8. This is a closely watched number as it presents an indication of business activity in the middle section of the country.

Friday, September 30, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3733 1.3620 1.3576 1.3463 1.3419

GBP/USD 1.5711 1.5632 1.5598 1.5519 1.5484

330.3

238.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3596 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1333 76.8675 76.5973 76.3315 76.0613

USD/CHF 0.9060 0.9040 0.8983 0.8962 0.8905

EUR/CHF 1.2252 1.2219 1.2192 1.2159 1.2132

112.6

162.8

126.2

213.2

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.5751 1.5627 1.5350 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.8290 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.9275 0.9234 0.8970 0.8892 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2195 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 104.4640 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 104.8835 104.2440 103.8685 103.2290 102.8535

― ―

60 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday September 29, 2011 U.S. Unemployment Claims Drop Below 400k Closely watched Unemployment Claims came in at 391k, much lower than the expected 420k.

This brings the 4 week moving average down to 418k. Lately, the rev revisions isions have been higher so when next week’s number is reported this week’s number will likely be reported higher. We would really need to see several weeks of declining numbers to make analysts feel comfortable that claims were indeed on the decline.

U.S.. Pending Homes Sales are due out at 10 am ET and are expected to decrease -1.7% after last month’s decrease of -1.6%.

1.6%. There are now several parts to this report that are carefully watched; the number itself, median price paid and what percentage of the sa sales les were foreclosures.

Japan’s Retail Sales were reported this morning at a negative -2.6%; 2.6%; this is an annual number reported monthly. Expectations were for a decline of -0.6% 0.6% after last month’s report showed an increase of 0.6%. While these types of fl fluctuations uctuations are fairly normal for Japan’s Retail Sales number, it is concerning to see such a low number when there should be a burst of retail sales due to reconstruction from the earthquake and tsunami.

61 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday September 28, 2011 U.S. Durable Goods Orders Lower The volatile Durable Goods Orders report released this morning came in at a negative -0.1%; this is slightly higher than expectations of -0.2% and lower than last month’s increase of 4.1%. Since this number counts items that have a useful life greater than 3 years, it includes large ticket items such as airplanes. Therefore, the Core Durable Goods Orders report excludes airplanes and as such is less volatile than the regular report. The core rate came in also at a negative -0.1%; expectations were for a positive 0.1% and last month’s reading was 0.7%. To smooth out the volatility and obtain a clearer picture of large ticket orders it is best to look back over several months of reports. If we average the last 6 months activity Core Durable Goods Orders declines -1.1% and over the last 12 months they declined -1.7%. Not positive for the U.S. economy or the Dollar.

Germany’s Preliminary CPI released today shows slightly higher inflation than expectations at 0.1%; expectations were for a decrease of -0.1%. German inflation, on a yearly basis has been running below 2%. This report is consistent with numbers over the past year.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3682 1.3627 1.3493 1.3438 1.3304

GBP/USD 1.5671 1.5633 1.5532 1.5494 1.5393

397.1

291.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3580 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/27/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.9558 76.6225 76.4188 76.0855 75.8818

USD/CHF 0.9180 0.9081 0.9043 0.8944 0.8906

EUR/CHF 1.2299 1.2248 1.2200 1.2149 1.2101

EUR/JPY 104.9078 104.2345 103.0858 102.4125 101.2638

112.8

287.5

208.7

382.6

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.5751 1.5635 1.5350 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.8090 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.9275 0.9234 0.8957 0.8892 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2167 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 104.3120 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 ―

― ―

― ―

62 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Tuesday September 27, 2011 Switzerland Shows More Signs of Slowdown UBS Consumption Indicator for Switzerland released this morning showed the largest slowdown in 2 years. The indicator is a combination of already releas released ed indicators that measure consumer economic activity. July’s reading of 1.28 was in line with previous months. August’s reading came in at 0.79, the lowest measure since October 2008.

Britain’s CBI Realized Sales came in at -15, the 4th consecutive month th below 0.0. This is a rather small survey of business, only 160, that rates sales activity as being good or bad. The last time there was 4 consecutive months below zero was in the summer of 2009.

At 10 am ET today U.S. Consumer Confidence will be rele released ased by the Conference Board.

Expectations are for 46.2, a reading below 50 is viewed negatively for the economy as the consumer makes up the largest portion of economic activity. This will be the second month in a row below 50.

63 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday September 26, 2011 Germany’s Ifo Higher Than Expected Germany’s survey of over 7,000 businesses came in slightly higher than expectations at 107.5; expectations were for 107.0. This is still lower than last month’s report of 108.7 and continues to trend lower from its high point above 114 in May and June of 2011. Because of the size of the survey it gives a fairly accurate prediction of future economic activity. The trend of the number is more of an indication then the actual number itself.

At 10 am ET we will see U.S. New Homes Sales for August. Expectations are for an annual rate of 296k, a rate that has been fairly consistent since June 2010. In good times before the housing crash, this number was consistently over 1 million units annually. Over the past 14 months the consistency of the number is really a very good sign as it builds more and more creditability that the U.S. housing market is forming a bottom.

Monday, September 26, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2355 76.6500 76.3725 75.7870 75.5095

EUR/USD 1.3694 1.3573 1.3479 1.3358 1.3264

GBP/USD 1.5574 1.5438 1.5382 1.5247 1.5191

452.1

402.4

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3508 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.5751 1.5465 1.5350 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.5130 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.9275 0.9234 0.9050 0.8892 0.8830 0.8830

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2222 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 103.3680 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/23/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

181.2

85.5200 ―

USD/CHF 0.9288 0.9189 0.9082 0.8983 0.8876

EUR/CHF 1.2420 1.2321 1.2244 1.2145 1.2068

EUR/JPY 105.1150 103.7020 102.9500 101.5370 100.7850

433.4

369.4

454.7

― ―

― ―

64 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Friday September 23, 2011 Slowing Economics Continue to Stifle markets Once again markets are focusing on slowing growth as assets shift from risk to safety. Greek banks were downgraded today by Moody’s cciting iting risk that the banks hold too much government debt. Talk is now circulating that the ECB will lower rates at their October meeting. Both the IMF and the G-20 20 are meeting today and the G G-20 20 made a statement that they are “committed “ to a strong and coordinated ordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” While this statement sounds great, they did not provide any solution as to how they might tackle the current economic issues facing the industrialized world. After A yesterday’s large range the rest of today’s trading should entail consolidation, repositioning and profit taking.

65 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday September 22, 2011 European Economic Data All Lower The monthly European Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI’s) were released today and all of them are lower than expectations and lower than last month. Europe is slowing down as most PMI’s have readings at or below 50, the number that signals economic expansion or contraction.

Some of the reports are now at levels equal to or less than readings from 2 or more years ago when the economy had negative GDP. Additionally, Switzerland’s ZEW report came in at -75.7; this is the lowest reading since December 2008.

U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims came in at 423k and the previous week’s number was revised higher to 432k. Each week the 4 week moving average of this number keeps creeping higher. This means there continues to be increases in layoffs placing new pressures on the waning economic recovery.

66 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday September 21, 2011 Waiting On The Fed Today ends the Fed’s two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will institute some new stimulus to ramp up a sagging U.S. economy. Expectations are for one of two operations or both. First and probably the most likely is the Fed would buy long term treasuries, 5 to 15 year maturities, as the shorter maturities on their balance sheet mature. This would have a twofold effect; first it would not increase the size of the balance sheet because they would be using proceeds from the maturing notes (thus not devaluating the Dollar) and second it would compel longer term U.S. treasuries even lower forcing banks to seek higher returns from other lending sources. The second widely anticipated move the Fed could perform is to lower the interest rate paid to banks for excess reserves they place with the Fed. It is currently 0.25% and reducing to zero would force banks to seek returns somewhere else, thus making loans to businesses and individuals. All of this is really Dollar positive longer term.

While the focus is on the U.S. Federal Reserve the Bank of England today released its notes from their last meeting. This showed all 9 members in agreement that more stimulus was needed and a potential increase of their quantitative easing program might be necessary. The Pound is down sharply on the news.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3803 1.3752 1.3669 1.3618 1.3535

GBP/USD 1.5821 1.5765 1.5698 1.5642 1.5576

282.0

257.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3700 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/20/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2678 76.9005 76.6078 76.2405 75.9478

USD/CHF 0.8908 0.8861 0.8827 0.8780 0.8746

EUR/CHF 1.2097 1.2085 1.2067 1.2056 1.2038

EUR/JPY 106.2940 105.5580 104.7580 104.0220 103.2220

138.6

169.5

61.3

322.6

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5733 1.5663 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.4430 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8876 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2161 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 104.7210 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― ―

― ―

― ―

67 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday September 20, 2011 Europe Economic Numbers Lower Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in this morning at a negative -0.3%, the first negative showing since January 2010. Expectations were for an increase of 0.1% after last month’s increase of 0.7%. Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at negative -43.3; expectations were for -44.3 after last month’s reading of -37.6. This is a survey of 350 investors and analysts that culminates their opinions about future economic activity; it has been below zero for 4 months.

All of Europe’s ZEW report came in at negative -44.6, the lowest reading since December 2008.

It too has been negative now for the last 4 months. The ZEW reports are leading indicators and with 4 months of negative readings coupled with falling prices (lower PPI) the 2 rate increases by the ECB several months ago are looking less and less like a good idea.

U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts came in mixed. Housing Starts were reported with a 570k annual rate, lower than expectations of 590k and lower than last month’s 600k. Permits came in at a 620k annual rate; expectations were for 600k equal to last month’s reading of 600k.

Overall these numbers are really no different than they have been for the last 2 ½ years. The U.S. Housing market is still in a slump.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1325 76.9990 76.8275 76.6940 76.5225

EUR/USD 1.3925 1.3818 1.3785 1.3678 1.3646

GBP/USD 1.5871 1.5807 1.5776 1.5711 1.5680

292.5

201.2

64.0

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3686 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5703 1.5663 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.5690 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8820 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/19/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8847 0.8827 0.8756 0.8736 0.8665

EUR/CHF 1.2119 1.2096 1.2074 1.2051 1.2029

EUR/JPY 106.8793 106.1625 105.8463 105.1295 104.8133

191.5

94.3

216.9

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2071 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000 ↔ ↔ ↔

― ―

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 104.7910 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000 ↔ ↔ ↓

― ―

68 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday September 19, 2011 Europe Fears Driving Markets Today Lack of economic news today is allowing traders to focus more on Greece’s potential default and European finance official’s inability to deal with the fallout. European officials continue to show disorganization and lack of agreement on what and how to deal with the impending problem.

Their indecisiveness to make decisions that will thwart economic Armageddon is sending fear throughout the global markets and shifting money from Europe to everywhere else; anywhere safer. The Euro against the Dollar gapped lower Monday morning in Asia over 100 pips and so far has not been able to fill the gap. Technically, if it does not fill the gap today it will most certainly set a downward tone for the rest of the week.

Tomorrow’s economic news will be focused on Germany and European ZEW reports, expectations are for lower readings than last month. Also, in the U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits neither of which are expected to show any type of major increase.

Monday, September 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4081 1.3993 1.3848 1.3759 1.3614

GBP/USD 1.5936 1.5868 1.5799 1.5730 1.5661

489.7

289.2

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3794 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/16/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5590 77.0630 76.8070 76.3110 76.0550

USD/CHF 0.8857 0.8768 0.8707 0.8618 0.8557

EUR/CHF 1.2119 1.2091 1.2063 1.2035 1.2007

EUR/JPY 108.1163 107.3595 106.2213 105.4645 104.3263

157.9

314.8

117.8

397.9

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5784 1.5663 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.7620 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8761 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2087 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 105.8770 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― ―

― ―

69 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday September 16, 2011 More Worries For Europe European banks continue to be distrusted as to their exposure of various sovereign debts. So much so that a coordinated effort by several Central Banks from around the globe stated they are providing short term liquidity for European banks. Fear of a financial collapse is tugging on one side of the markets while confidence that no one will allow another Lehman incident is tugging on the other side. In either event once the financial unraveling begins it will be very difficult to contain.

This past week’s overall economic numbers out of Europe showed weakness and today yet another weak number. Europe’s Current Account for July came in at -12.9 billion, the lowest reading since the end of 2010. Anyway the number is analyzed it is not positive for Europe’s struggling economy and debt situation. The Euro is lower this morning on the news.

Friday, September 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3912 1.3849 1.3720 1.3658 1.3528

GBP/USD 1.5871 1.5820 1.5763 1.5712 1.5655

402.8

227.4

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3876 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1858 76.8525 76.7228 76.3895 76.2598

USD/CHF 0.8899 0.8821 0.8775 0.8696 0.8650

EUR/CHF 1.2069 1.2061 1.2041 1.2033 1.2014

EUR/JPY 106.2463 105.8915 105.2183 104.8635 104.1903

97.2

261.7

57.3

215.9

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5799 1.5663 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6890 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8693 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2063 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 106.4140 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

↔ ↔ ↔ ― ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― ―

70 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday September 15, 2011 Consumer Prices Increase Very Little The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in this morning with an increase of 0.4% after expectations were for a 0.2% increase; July’s increase was 0.5%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, came in at 0.2% as expected and same as July’s increase. Overall, for the rolling last 12 months, the CPI has increased 3.6% and the Core rate increased 1.9%.

U.S. Unemployment Claims for the week ended September 10th came in higher than expected at 428k the highest since the end of June. This is somewhat troubling as we progress into the end of the 3rd quarter and slower growth in the first half of the year was expected to be made up in the second half of the year. Without more people working it will be difficult to produce that growth.

British Retail Sales came in as expected at a negative -0.2%. This takes back the 0.2% increase from July providing very little sales growth over the summer months. Europe’s CPI also came in as expected at 2.5% with the Core rate at 1.2% also as expected. These are annualized numbers reported monthly. Over the past year the 2.5% increase in the CPI is at the higher end of the range while the 1.2% increases in the Core rate is towards the lower end of the range; difference being the larger increases in food and energy.

Thursday, September 15, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.4253 77.1625 76.9793 76.7165 76.5333

EUR/USD 1.3844 1.3768 1.3663 1.3587 1.3481

GBP/USD 1.5905 1.5832 1.5797 1.5724 1.5689

380.3

226.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3754 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5766 1.5663 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6230 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8758 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2046 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 105.3760 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

93.7

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8931 0.8863 0.8810 0.8742 0.8690

EUR/CHF 1.2063 1.2052 1.2040 1.2029 1.2017

EUR/JPY 106.3463 105.8435 105.1193 104.6165 103.8923

253.3

48.1

257.7

― ―

― ―

― ―

71 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday September 14, 2011 U.S. Economic Numbers Weaker Inflation at the wholesale level reported this morning by the Department of Labor showed a decrease in the PPI; both the overall rate and the Core rate. The overall rate was expected to show a decrease of -0.1%; the real number came in unchanged. The Core rate came in at 0.1% a tenth of a percent lower than expectations and three tenths less than last month.

U.S. retail Sales also reported this morning showed a continued slowdown; especially for August, a back to school month that usually provokes spending. Retail Sales came in at unchanged while the Core rate, excluding auto sales, came in with an increase of 0.1%; 0.2% was expected and 0.4% was July’s increase.

Overall these numbers are not positive for the U.S. economy. While the inflation number is low, it is really too low. If wholesale inflation could climb with monthly increases of 0.4% to 0.5% consistently that would provide more money velocity thus increasing growth. Additionally, Retail Sales needs to show consistent monthly increases of 0.8% to 1.0% or 10% to 12% increases per year; this would be the type of strength that would help the U.S. economy get out of its funk.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.0138 77.6175 77.1808 76.7845 76.3478

EUR/USD 1.3832 1.3776 1.3638 1.3582 1.3444

GBP/USD 1.5958 1.5917 1.5845 1.5804 1.5732

407.6

237.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3677 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5778 1.5775 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.9310 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8802 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2040 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 105.2400 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

174.9

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8959 0.8864 0.8831 0.8736 0.8703

EUR/CHF 1.2091 1.2061 1.2046 1.2015 1.2000

EUR/JPY 107.0540 106.5250 105.2050 104.6760 103.3560

269.0

95.3

388.3

― ―

― ―

72 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday September 13, 2011 British Inflation Higher Britain’s yearly CPI came in at 4.5% as expected but a tenth of a percent higher than last month and at the higher end of the range for the last 12 months’ reports. The Core rate came in at 3.1%, slightly higher than expectations and equal to last month’s reading. This number is in the middle of the range for the last 12 months’ of reports. Overall Core inflation has stayed steady throughout the year with larger fluctuations in the food and energy sectors causing overall inflation numbers to be more volatile and higher.

Britain’s Trade Balance came in at negative -8.9 billion, this is on the lower end of the last 12 month range and slightly weaker than the -8.5 billion expected. None of these numbers are a net positive for the Pound as the inflation numbers are not high enough to warrant an interest rate increase and the high inflation numbers coupled with the low Trade Balance can signal a weaker economy in the future.

U.S. Import Prices declined last month by -0.4% coming in higher than expectations of -0.7%.

This is on the lower end of the range for the past 12 months and provides less upward pricing pressures for products within the U.S. Tuesday, September 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.3996 1.3768 1.3698 1.3470 1.3400

GBP/USD 1.6032 1.5933 1.5888 1.5789 1.5745

626.0

302.0

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3694 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/12/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2545 77.8990 77.4995 77.1440 76.7445

USD/CHF 0.8976 0.8932 0.8819 0.8775 0.8662

EUR/CHF 1.2221 1.2124 1.2089 1.1992 1.1958

EUR/JPY 108.6765 106.8730 106.0825 104.2790 103.4885

158.6

330.1

276.2

544.7

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5846 1.5775 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.4890 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8875 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2055 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 105.2550 104.7500 104.7500 100.0000

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― ―

― ―

73 | P a g e

― ―

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday September 12, 2011 European Default Fears Continue Fear of a Greek default is once again being circulated throughout the World. Fear of European bank failures continue to build. Up until this point European officials have managed to shore everything up by using strong talk and promises. Fear eventually takes over to realty and the reality is they, being the European officials, may not be able to contain the financial fallout of a Greek default. Rumors usually have some basis and the latest rumor is Germany is readying for a Greek default. If Greece defaults the markets’ reactions will be depended on how it defaults.

If Greece throws its hands up and says we are not paying anymore of our debt and we are going back to the Drachma, then that would be very bad for everyone. However, if it is a structured default, meaning everyone agrees to take a cut in principle and Greece leaves the Euro Zone in an orderly fashion, then the impact will be less disastrous.

The Yen is once again hitting new highs against most major currencies. At some point the Bank of Japan will need to intervene. As was put forth by the G-7 nations Japan will more than likely solicit a coordination of intervention with other nations.

There are no economic reports of value today. Tomorrow is Britain’s CPI and the U.S. reports its Federal Budget Balance.

Monday, September 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4169 1.4033 1.3953 1.3817 1.3737

GBP/USD 1.6159 1.6066 1.5990 1.5897 1.5820

454.2

356.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4281 1.4099 1.3656 1.3460 1.2865 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.8678 77.6925 77.4188 77.2435 76.9698

USD/CHF 0.8881 0.8808 0.8696 0.8623 0.8511

EUR/CHF 1.2238 1.2189 1.2132 1.2084 1.2026

EUR/JPY 109.5660 108.6210 108.0830 107.1380 106.6000

94.3

389.1

222.4

311.4

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6082 1.5875 1.5775 1.5320 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.5540 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8832 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2061 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 105.8970 105.4100 105.4100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― ―

― ―

― 105.4100

74 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday September 9, 2011 China’s Inflation Numbers Still Too High While Chinese inflation numbers were lower than expectations and lower than July’s reading, the numbers are still too high for sustainable growth. The PPI came in at 7.3%, expectations were for 7.2% and last month’s reading was 7.5% - the highest in several years. The CPI came in at 6.2%, expectations were for 6.3% and last month’s reading was 6.5%, also the highest reading in several years. The latest round of interest rate increases by the Chinese Central seems to have done little to curb inflationary pressures.

French Industrial Production came in higher than expected at 1.5%; expectations were for an increase of 0.4% and last month’s reading was a negative -1.5%. In the last 6 months there have been 3 positive numbers and 3 negative numbers, so overall production has progressed very little. This is not a positive for the Euro.

Friday, September 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.8008 77.5825 77.3218 77.1035 76.8428

EUR/USD 1.4221 1.4151 1.4078 1.4008 1.3936

GBP/USD 1.6094 1.6029 1.5973 1.5907 1.5852

299.3

254.9

100.6

160.4

154.8

171.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.3888 1.3973 1.3963 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6454 1.5955 1.5911 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.5530 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8746 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2148 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 107.7180 106.8200 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8658 0.8624 0.8581 0.8547 0.8505

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.2154 1.2127 1.2081 1.2053 1.2007

― ―

EUR/JPY 109.6023 109.3075 108.7853 108.4905 107.9683

― 105.4100

75 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday September 8, 2011 ECB Changes Outlook The European Central Bank (ECB) met and released their statement regarding future policy. The tone was somber acknowledging potential weaknesses in the European economy. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, also stated price risks were broadly balanced and that inflation over the next year should decline to under 2%. The Euro immediately sold off on the news as the prospect for future rate increases were quickly dashed.

The Bank of England also had their monthly meeting and released their statement regarding future policy. Their statement provided little change to current or future policy choosing to keep interest rates steady and their quantitative easing program intact as is without any increase. The Pound rallied on the news.

U.S. Trade Balance released this morning came in better than expected with a reading of -44.8 billion for the month of July. This is 6 billion better than expected and 7 billion better than June.

Overall this number is still within the range of the last few months providing very little support to the Dollar.

Thursday, September 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4375 1.4162 1.4067 1.3854 1.3760

GBP/USD 1.6284 1.6089 1.6005 1.5810 1.5726

646.4

585.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.4080 1.3973 1.3963 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.3753 78.0235 77.3683 77.0165 76.3613

USD/CHF 0.9207 0.9002 0.8421 0.8216 0.7635

EUR/CHF 1.2995 1.2644 1.1830 1.1480 1.0666

211.5

1,650.6

2,445.0

442.1

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6454 1.5968 1.5911 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.3430 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8586 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2090 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 108.8990 106.8200 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― ―

― ―

EUR/JPY 110.8483 109.6595 108.7433 107.5545 106.6383

― 105.4100

76 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday September 7, 2011 Germany’s Court Upholds EU Rescue A set of challenges to Germany’s participation in Euro Zone loans has been heard by Germany’s Constitutional court. The decision was made that all committed funds thus far are legal however; all future commitments must be approved by the Bundestag finance committee. This clears the way for funds to be released to Greece and other Euro Zone nations that were promised the funds in 2010.

Germany’s Industrial Production number released this morning came in much higher than expected. Expectations were for an increase of 0.6% and the number came in 4.0% higher. This is the largest increase since May 2010 and eclipses last month’s decrease of -1.0%. This number is very volatile so looking at several months the overall average has been pulled higher by this release.

At 2 pm ET today the U.S. Fed releases its Beige Book, a regional assessment of economic activity. While this report is used by the FOMC to determine rate policy there are two other reports that are not made public that carry more Fed decision weight. So, the Beige Book is a guide for “street” analysts to use in predicting Fed rate policy action.

Wednesday, September 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1583 77.0645 76.8733 76.7795 76.5883

EUR/USD 1.4206 1.4125 1.4092 1.4011 1.3977

GBP/USD 1.6229 1.6150 1.6105 1.6026 1.5981

240.0

260.8

59.8

192.2

384.3

161.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.4008 1.3973 1.3963 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6454 1.5950 1.5911 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.5200 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8938 0.8609 0.8325 0.8325 0.8325

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.2344 1.2062 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 108.6070 106.8200 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.7949 0.7895 0.7857 0.7803 0.7766

― ―

EUR/CHF 1.1258 1.1136 1.1075 1.0953 1.0892

― ―

EUR/JPY 109.1348 108.6105 108.3638 107.8395 107.5928

― 105.4100

77 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday September 6, 2011 SNB Pegs Swiss to Euro After weeks of threatening to peg the Swiss Franc to the Euro the Swiss National Bank finally pegged the Franc to 120 Euros. Now that they have done the deal the questions remain as to how committed the SNB will be to supporting that level and how long they can actually defend the level. Pegging the Franc to the Euro may not have been the smartest move as the Euro may lose ground over the coming months because of a slowing economy. This move may end up being a lose/lose for Switzerland; at least in the form of monetary gains. The real question is how much difference the peg will make for the country’s exports in a slowing European economy.

German Factory Orders reported this morning came in less than expected declining -2.8%; expectations were for a decline of -1.4% and last month’s number was an increase of 1.8%.

There seems to be a pattern of every 3 to 4 months a negative growth in the number. This was the first negative growth since May. On balance the growth rate has been steadily increasing over the past year.

Today’s price action will be concentrated in the Swiss denominated crosses while speculation will increase on how this will force the BOJ into action to push the price of the Yen lower.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2028 77.0235 76.7818 76.6025 76.3608

EUR/USD 1.4308 1.4227 1.4205 1.4123 1.4102

GBP/USD 1.6281 1.6229 1.6200 1.6148 1.6119

217.1

170.3

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.4068 1.4243 1.3928 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6088 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.9220 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8243 0.7849 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.1930 1.1044 1.0700 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 108.2250 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

88.4

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8100 0.8008 0.7858 0.7766 0.7616

EUR/CHF 1.1531 1.1358 1.1180 1.1007 1.0828

EUR/JPY 110.1585 109.4130 109.1295 108.3840 108.1005

507.8

737.5

216.1

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

78 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday September 5, 2011 More Bad News for the Euro State elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Germany yesterday gave power to the Social Democrats; this is the 6th such State election this year to vote out Chancellor Merkel’s centerright coalition. Worse yet this is the home state of Chancellor Merkel. These election results echoed throughout the last 6 state elections that the people of Germany do not support the continued bail-out of countries such as Greece, Ireland or Portugal. This news is weighting heavy the Euro.

Economically, European Retail Sales released today showed a 0.2% increase. This is 1 tenth of a percent lower than expectations. Last month’s number increased by 0.7% but was originally reported at 0.9% and revised down to the 0.7% in today’s report. Overall this is a volatile number and needs to be looked at over several months to provide an accurate picture of Retail Sales. Over the last 6 months the average has been a decline in Retail Sales by -0.3%.

Today is the U.S. holiday, Labor Day. So, trading will be quite, especially after the European session closes.

Monday, September 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.4470 77.1360 76.9170 76.6060 76.3870

EUR/USD 1.4435 1.4342 1.4284 1.4191 1.4133

GBP/USD 1.6310 1.6248 1.6189 1.6127 1.6069

317.5

253.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.4203 1.4243 1.3928 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6214 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.7900 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHF 1.1090 0.8938 0.8243 0.7880 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHF 1.2914 1.2848 1.1930 1.1194 1.1247 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 109.0880 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 9/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

111.3

85.5200 76.2100

USD/CHF 0.8139 0.8027 0.7976 0.7865 0.7814

EUR/CHF 1.1687 1.1481 1.1400 1.1193 1.1112

EUR/JPY 111.3640 110.3740 109.9450 108.9550 108.5260

341.3

603.7

298.0

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

79 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Friday September 2, 2011 U.S. Non-Farm Farm Payrolls Sink, No Increase For August The widely anticipated U.S. Employment report released this morning was expected to show an increase of 74k new jobs created ffor or the month of August. Instead there were no net jobs created. This is the worst U.S. Employment reading since September 2010 when Non-Farm Non Payrolls were a negative -95k 95k and Unemployment was 9.6%. More disturbing is the Average Hourly Earnings which came me in at negative -0.1%.

0.1%. This is the worst showing for earnings since the June 2010 report; all-in-all all a very bad Employment Situation Report. The bright side is, it is only one month’s report. September’s report to be released October 7 will now have even ev greater importance as two bad reports in a row could be catastrophic for an already fragile recovery.

Another worrisome report was from Japan this morning; their Capital Spending report. It came in at a negative -7.8%.

7.8%. This is the first negative repo report rt since September 2010, a year ago.

Expectations were for an increase of 1.1% after last quarter’s increase of 3.0%. The worrisome part of this report is that Capital Spending should have shown an increase due to the increased spending for reconstructionn from the earthquake and tsunami. This could mean future economic reports out of Japan may be worse than expectations because without the capital expenditures now, future economic growth will be hindered.

We have our mail server back up and running. I do apologize for not being able to get the daily emails out on time; sometimes we have to bow to technologies shortcomings. If anyone would like to read the previous 4 days of daily ee-mail mail reports they are available on the website under “Daily Market Analysis lysis Emails”.

80 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Thursday September 1, 2011 More Upbeat Economic News For the U.S U.S. The Institute for Supply Management released its Purchasing Managers Index today at 50.6; expectations were for 48.7 and last month’s reading was 50.9. While not good by any means – above 50 is considered optimistic future growth by the Purchasing managers surveyed – it is not progressively lower and higher than expectations. Right now any news that does not come in lower than expectations ions seems to be good news.

Swiss Retail Sales came in significantly lower than expectations. Expectations were for 4.6% and the number came in at 1.9%; last month’s number was 7.9%. This is a very volatile number and is really not fair to look at just one month. Over the last 6 months there has been a decline of -4.1% 4.1% and an increase of 7.9% with the monthly average increase of 3.4%; on balance a very good growth in Retail Sales.

Tomorrow the U.S. Employment numbers are released at 8:30 ET. Expectati Expectations ons are now for an increase in non-farm farm payrolls of 74k. Yesterday expectations were for around 90k and last month’s number was 117k; the “street” may be underestimating the number. The Unemployment Rate is expected to be the same as last month 9.1%

81 | P a g e

August 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Wednesday August 31, 2011 U.S. Business’ Show Greater Strength Yesterday U.S. consumers showed considerable weakness in their outlook for the future. Today, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s report showed business is a little more optimistic about their future. The report came in at 56.5, which is higher than expectations but lower than last month.

It is the lowest reading in almost 2 years; however, it is still within the range of reports for that 2 year period and it is above 50 suggesting continued growth. Also reported today was Factory Orders which increased 2.4%; expectations were for 1.8% after last month’s decrease of -0.4%.

Factory Orders can be and are a fairly volatile number so therefore it iiss better to look at 6 plus months instead of just one month. Over the past 6 to 8 months Factory Orders have shown good positive strength with an average monthly increase of 1.3%.

U.S. ADP Payroll estimates, usually a forerunner to the Government’s repor reportt on Friday, came in today at 91,000; 11,000 less than expectations. Friday’s Government report is expected to show non-farm farm payrolls of 90,000. In either situation 91,000 is still too small to make up for all the jobs lost over the past 4 years. A posi positive tive growth of jobs in this economic environment would be 300k to 400k new jobs per month.

Tomorrow morning we have Swiss GDP and Retail Sales, both are expected to show declines; slower growth and less retail sales. Great Britain will report its Manufac Manufacturing turing Purchasing Managers’ Index in the morning; expectations are for a reading of 48.9, slightly less than last month and still below 50 which indicates less growth.

82 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Tuesday August 30, 2011 U.S. Consumer Confidencee Lowest in Over 2 years The Conference Board released their monthly survey of Consumer Confidence today and it came in at 44.5 (anything below 50 is considered a contraction), the lowest level since April 2009.

Last month’s number was 59.2. This low nnumber umber is being attributed to Congress’ stalling of raising the debt ceiling and the accompanying S&P downgrade. In either event the general U.S. population certainly felt less confident about their future.

While the U.S. saw slower consumer confidence; S Switzerland’s witzerland’s Consumption Indicator, as measured by UBS, came in at 1.29, the lowest reading in over a year. Normally this is would not be that big of an issue; however, over the past few months it has been creeping lower. Coupled with other indicators, Switzerland witzerland is showing signs of an economic slowdown. Switzerland has been the pillar of economic stability in Europe, so much so that the Swiss National Bank has floated the idea of pegging the Franc to the Euro or Dollar to halt the currency’s rise. Having Hav such a high currency value is beginning to hurt Swiss exports and slowing economic growth.

83 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday August 27, 2011 U.S. Personal Spending Higher The U.S. Personal Spending number came in much higher than expected at 0.8% the biggest increase in almost 2 years. Expectations were for an increase of 0.5% after last month’s upward revision to negative -0.1% from a -0.2%. Personal Income came in with the expected increase of 0.3%. These are respectable numbers albeit not robust enough to warrant excitement that the U.S. economy is going to induce higher growth in the second half of 2011. U.S. Pending Home Sales are due out at 10 am ET with expectations of a negative -0.8%; housing is still the drag on the economy. If this number comes in a lot better, positive, than stocks and the Dollar will rally.

I do apologize for the plain looking e-mail and missing tables. Fx Addicts mail server is down; we do hope to have it fixed by tomorrow. If you want to look at the tables they are on the site in the e-mail archive.

Monday, August 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4540 1.4460 1.4394 1.4314 1.4248

GBP/USD 1.6446 1.6358 1.6308 1.6221 1.6171

307.2

288.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4534 1.4522 1.4498 1.4243 1.3928 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/26/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.1823 77.8245 77.3293 76.9715 76.4763

USD/CHD 0.8020 0.7974 0.7941 0.7895 0.7862

EUR/CHD 1.1556 1.1476 1.1437 1.1358 1.1319

179.1

165.9

249.3

218.0

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6366 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6500 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.8059 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1773 1.1685 1.1247 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 111.1390 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

↓ ↓ ↓ ― 1.0000

EUR/JPY 112.2770 111.8800 111.2390 110.8420 110.2010

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 105.4100

84 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday August 26, 2011 U.S. GDP Lower Than Expectations Second quarter, first revision GDP was expected to be reduced lower from 1.3% to 1.1%; however, it came in at 1.0%. While the 1.3% number was considered weak, the 1.0% number certainly adds to the fear of a potential U.S. recession.

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.61, the lowest reading in almost 2 years.

Switzerland’s economic numbers and sentiment indicators continue to show progressive declines month over month. Europe’s slowdown appears to be more broad based then the U.S.; at least for now.

Bernanke’s speech from Jackson Hole Wyoming will begin at 10 am ET. Expect some wild fluctuations as the speech is being presented and once the market hears if there will be another quantitative easing or not the Dollar will either rise or fall; rise if no easing, fall if QE3 or something similar.

Friday, August 26, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4521 1.4458 1.4418 1.4356 1.4316

GBP/USD 1.6585 1.6456 1.6403 1.6274 1.6221

214.8

382.2

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4387 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5170 77.3280 76.8870 76.6980 76.2570

USD/CHD 0.8028 0.8002 0.7938 0.7912 0.7848

EUR/CHD 1.1547 1.1518 1.1444 1.1414 1.1340

EUR/JPY 111.8053 111.4655 110.7983 110.4585 109.7913

132.3

189.2

217.1

211.5

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6290 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.3980 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7935 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1417 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 111.3610 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

85 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday August 25, 2011 Swiss ZEW Lowest In 3 Years The Swiss ZEW report, survey of leading investment analysts, came in at -71.4. This is the lowest reading in almost 3 years and more importantly the 4th progressively lower number over the last 4 months. This means the Swiss investment industry is growing increasingly negative on the Swiss economy. All of Europe is slowing including Switzerland which has been the pillar of economic strength within Europe.

U.S. Unemployment Claims came in higher and the highest in 6 weeks at 417k. Expectations were for 403k, last week’s number was also revised higher from 408k to 412k. While these numbers are not good they are at least consistent in that they are not moving significantly higher.

The four week moving average is now 406k, still way too high in historical standards and certainly too high to warrant any type of meaningful economic recovery.

All eyes are on the Jackson Hole annual Fed summit. Expectations range for the Fed chief to announce more quantitative easing to not doing anything and stating the economy is doing well.

More than likely he will do nothing more than state that the economy seems to be stable and that if economic indicators worsen the Fed will be ready to act in any way necessary to avert a new slow down. Overall this would be Dollar positive and Euro negative. The Euro debt issues have not gone away, just forgotten for a few days.

Thursday, August 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.1205 76.8710 76.6665 76.4170 76.2125

EUR/USD 1.4575 1.4509 1.4432 1.4366 1.4289

GBP/USD 1.6621 1.6553 1.6503 1.6434 1.6384

300.3

248.2

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4407 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6365 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.0130 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7957 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

95.3

USD/CHD 0.7993 0.7968 0.7910 0.7885 0.7827

EUR/CHD 1.1556 1.1516 1.1415 1.1375 1.1273

EUR/JPY 111.6415 111.1750 110.6215 110.1550 109.6015

174.9

297.4

214.2

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1466 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.9620 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

86 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday August 24, 2011 Economic Data Up for U.S. Down for Europe Germany’s Ifo Business Climate reported this morning came in at 108.7, the lowest reading since October last year. This report has some good significance as it is a survey of 7,000 business owners’ expectations for the next 6 months. European Industrial New Orders also came in lower than expected at a negative -0.7%; expectations were for an increase of 0.6% after last month’s 3.6% increase. This is normally a volatile number and revisions can be large. Overall, these numbers do not show strong economic prospects for Europe.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders reported this morning showed a good increase. The Core increased 0.7%; expectations were for a decrease of -0.3% after last month’s increase of 0.6%. Overall Durable Goods increased 4.0% for July, which is the greatest increase in 2 years. While this is always a volatile number, a 4.0% increase in one month is very good. Last month’s increase was due to airliner purchases and an increase in auto motors ordered.

On balance these reports are bullish for the Dollar and bearish for the Euro; however, the Euro increased and the Dollar fell on the news. Fear of more quantitative easing by the Fed is driving the Dollar lower. As the day progresses technicals should prevail with the Dollar rising and the Euro falling.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4460 1.4400 1.4373 1.4313 1.4286

GBP/USD 1.6551 1.6498 1.6466 1.6413 1.6381

183.1

178.3

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4437 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/23/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5418 77.2395 76.8948 76.5925 76.2478

USD/CHD 0.7955 0.7928 0.7882 0.7856 0.7810

EUR/CHD 1.1443 1.1389 1.1327 1.1273 1.1211

EUR/JPY 111.3675 110.8930 110.4495 109.9750 109.5315

135.9

152.3

243.2

192.8

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6493 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6440 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7927 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1446 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.6650 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

87 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday August 23, 2011 ZEW Reports Lowest In 2 ½ Years Europe and Germany’s ZEW Sentiment reports were released this morning and both are the lowest readings since December 2008. Germany’s came in at -37.6 and Europe’s at -40.0, this is now the third negative reading in a row. While these surveys are small in population they are usually fairly accurate as they are made up of people in the finance industry; people in the loop of all economic activity.

European Purchasing Managers Reports were also released this morning and on an overall basis they were better than expected. Manufacturing PMI for France and all of Europe were below 50; usually meaning a contraction in manufacturing. And, the services PMI were all above 50 with the only one showing any significant increase was the French Services at 56.1; expectations were for 53.3. Overall, not robust numbers and most numbers are too close to the magic 50 level of contraction to shed fears of a potential economic slowdown.

U.S. New Home Sales are expected out at 10 am ET. Expectations are for 313,000; this is about a third of where the number should be. Many new home builders have also been indicating that their sales numbers have fallen off, so this number could actually be lower.

Speculation is building for the Fed to implement another Quantitative Easing program with an announcement on Friday. The Dollar will be under selling pressure until then.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4561 1.4476 1.4367 1.4283 1.4174

GBP/USD 1.6673 1.6555 1.6499 1.6381 1.6325

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.5825 77.1930 76.5655 76.1760 75.5485

365.6

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6456 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.9160 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7892 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1331 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.4340 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

― 0.7100

293.6

EUR/JPY 111.2095 110.9110 109.9595 109.6610 108.7095

406.1

85.5200 76.2100

323.6

EUR/CHD 1.1450 1.1371 1.1311 1.1231 1.1171

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4357 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

213.6

USD/CHD 0.8024 0.7934 0.7869 0.7780 0.7715

― 1.0000

88 | P a g e

262.5

― 105.4100

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Monday August 22, 2011 Fears Again Controlling Markets Fears of recession in Europe and in the U.S. are weighing on all markets. Fear that on Friday Bernanke will announce another quantitative easing further depressing the Dollar while Europe’s debt crisis continues to be unresolved. A lot of fear is being created by indecisive policy makers that are causing a lot of unknowns. Fear of unknowns is bad for any mark market. et. This week could prove to be no different than the past several weeks; a lot of volatility.

This morning the Dollar is mixed against most currencies with a downward bias. The Euro is slightly higher against most currencies, but with very little con conviction. viction. The Yen and Swiss are moving very little because of the threat of intervention. Today’s action may be the most subdued of the week. Any news announcement of these issues could very easily cause high volatility.

Stay away from long positions on the Yen and Swiss while playing only very short term positions in the Dollar and Euro.

89 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday August 19, 2011 Stock Sell-Off Brings Back Talk of Intervention Stock markets around the globe this morning are continuing their sell-off as fear of a global slowdown are creating an asset shift. Money once again is pouring into Japan and Switzerland pushing those currencies to or close to record highs. As this happens so does the talk of intervention, intervention to stem not only the currencies from rising but also the stock markets from falling. Historically, intervention has done little to change the minds of millions of investors from placing their money in one place as opposed to another; at least for a long term.

Short-term, intervention causes greater volatility and more uncertainty, now is not the time for greater uncertainty. Japanese officials are attempting to get all G-8 nations on board with a massive intervention. Trading the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen will be dangerous even for the most experienced traders; it is best to trade other crosses that do not involve either.

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) was released this morning at an increase of 0.7%.

Expectations were for an increase of 0.2% after last month’s increase of 0.1%. On a year-overyear basis Germany’s PPI is higher by 5.8%. This is very strong in both desired and historical inflation numbers. Currently the Euro is higher more as a technical bounce from yesterday than from strong inflation numbers.

Friday, August 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4616 1.4523 1.4424 1.4331 1.4231

GBP/USD 1.6743 1.6653 1.6500 1.6410 1.6257

403.8

510.1

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4295 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 76.9868 76.8025 76.6018 76.4175 76.2168

USD/CHD 0.8106 0.8002 0.7913 0.7809 0.7720

EUR/CHD 1.1730 1.1573 1.1396 1.1239 1.1062

EUR/JPY 111.6328 111.1235 110.4558 109.9465 109.2788

80.9

405.3

701.4

247.2

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6475 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6250 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7945 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1358 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 109.5460 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

90 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday August 18, 2011 U.S. CPI Higher The U.S. Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected this morning at 0.5%; expectations were for an increase of 0.2% after last month’s -0.2% decline. The Core rate came in at 0.2% as expected. Fed watchers are most concerned with the Core rate as this is the rate that determines stimulus movements by the Federal Reserve. The report is overall neutral for the Dollar.

Britain’s Retail Sales came in less than expected this morning showing an increase of 0.2%; expectations were for 0.3% and last month was revised higher from 0.7% to 0.8%. This can be a fairly volatile number month to month so it is better to look at it over a longer period of time, 6 months or longer. Over the last 6 months Retail Sales in Great Britain have increased around 2.0%. This is not a robust number and certainly not positive for the Pound.

Thursday, August 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4514 1.4439 1.4396 1.4321 1.4278

GBP/USD 1.6573 1.6517 1.6419 1.6363 1.6266

247.0

322.4

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4427 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.0360 76.8720 76.7540 76.5900 76.4720

USD/CHD 0.8119 0.8058 0.7913 0.7852 0.7707

EUR/CHD 1.1706 1.1601 1.1381 1.1276 1.1056

EUR/JPY 111.4075 110.8230 110.4575 109.8730 109.5075

59.2

433.2

682.1

199.5

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6545 1.6532 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.6100 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7906 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1660 1.1406 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.5350 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

91 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Wednesday August 17, 2011 Mixed Global Inflation Numbers Europe’s Consumer Price Index was reported in line with expectations and equal to last month’s increase of 2.5% year-over-year. year. The Core rate came in at 1.2% the smallest increase since February of this year; expectations were for an increase of 1.7%. In the U.S. the PPI came in at 0.2%; expectations were for unchanged reading and last month had a de decrease crease of -0.4%. The Core rate came in at 0.4%, a tenth of a percent higher than expectations and the highest Core rate since January this year. Overall, a non non-event event for either the Euro or the Dollar; one month does not make or break inflation numbers an and d on the long term these numbers are consistent with the last few months.

Europe’s Current Account deficit also decreased more than expected to -7.4 7.4 billion; expectations were for a decrease of -3.6 3.6 billion after last month’s decrease of -5.6 5.6 billion. While Wh this should have had a somewhat negative effect on the Euro, there still seems to be a euphoria surrounding the currency with regards to a real resolution of Europe’s debt problems. To shrug off a decrease in inflation and a larger Current Account def deficit, icit, Euro currency buyers are showing great confidence in this potential, yet elusive, solution.

92 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday August 16, 2011 European Growth Sinks GDP for the second quarter in Germany and Europe as a whole declined. German GDP expectations were for an increase of 0.5% after the first quarter’s increase of 1.3%; second quarter came in at 0.1%. Second quarter European GDP was expected to be 0.3% after first quarter GDP of 0.8%; it came in at 0.2%. The Euro sold off slightly on the news. Slowing growth and rising debt is not a positive for the currency. On Monday the ECB also bought €22 billion in bonds from various European nations in an effort to calm market worries that the debt crises was getting out of control.

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits came in as expected and slightly lower than last month. Overall housing growth is still very anemic with 600,000 new permits pulled and 600,000 new starts. These numbers may be lower in the coming months as several homebuilders have been reporting fewer sales.

U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due out at 9:15 am ET. Expectations are for slight increases over last month in both numbers. Even if the numbers come in higher they are still not robust and right now the economy needs robust production numbers.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4383 1.4334 1.4241 1.4192 1.4099

GBP/USD 1.6404 1.6349 1.6257 1.6203 1.6111

298.0

307.2

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4437 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.2703 77.0225 76.7633 76.5155 76.2563

USD/CHD 0.7988 0.7953 0.7750 0.7716 0.7513

EUR/CHD 1.1442 1.1384 1.1034 1.0977 1.0627

EUR/JPY 110.3658 110.0495 109.2808 108.9645 108.1958

106.5

498.8

855.1

227.8

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6377 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.8060 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7839 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1404 1.1318 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.8920 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

93 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Monday August 15, 2011 Japan GDP Negative 3rd Quarter In A Row Second Quarter er GDP in Japan came in at a negative -0.3%, 0.3%, this is better than the expectations of negative -0.6% 0.6% and better than the 4th Quarter of 2010 which came in at a negative -0.9%.

However, it is still negative and for an economy that for the last 20 years has seen very little growth, is very disappointing.

In the U.S. the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -7.7; 7.7; expectations were for an increase of 0.5. This is now the third month in a row that has been below 0.00; below zero is considered a contraction ction in business activity. While this report is only for the state of New York, it is still reflective of many areas of the nation as slowing economic conditions surface throughout the country.

Great Britain’s bond yields continue to slide amongst a slo slowing wing economy as austerity measures drag on the country’s growth. With the yields that British bonds are now carrying they are at their lowest real yield in history. Fundamentally, this can only be bad for the Pound Sterling. If this situation persists the he Pound will, in the long term, sink lower against all major currencies.

94 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday August 12, 2011 European Economic Activity Is Slowing French GDP released today came in at 0.00%; this is the slowest growth since first quarter 2009 when it was a negative -1.2%. Expectations were for a minor growth of 0.3% and the first quarter’s growth was revised down from 1.0% to 0.9%. Additionally, European Industrial Production came in at a negative -0.7%; this is the lowest reading since October of 2010.

Overall these reports do not help Europe’s debt issues. With a slowing economy it will make it that much harder to pay down debt by those countries that are in financial trouble.

U.S. Retail Sales came in higher than expected at 0.5%. Expectations were for 0.4% and 0.2% on the core. In either version it is still good and unexpected especially with the slew of recent negative reports about the U.S. consumer. At just before 10 am ET we will hear the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, expectations are for 63.2. If that comes out higher than expectations it will have a positive effect on the Dollar.

Friday, August 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4505 1.4368 1.4259 1.4122 1.4014

GBP/USD 1.6484 1.6323 1.6249 1.6088 1.6014

515.1

493.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4214 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2588 77.5465 77.1198 76.4075 75.9808

USD/CHD 0.7801 0.7499 0.7290 0.6989 0.6780

EUR/CHD 1.1144 1.0696 1.0393 0.9945 0.9642

EUR/JPY 112.0720 110.7430 109.9090 108.5800 107.7460

239.2

1,072.3

1,577.5

454.2

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6228 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.9330 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7624 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1404 1.0838 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 109.3620 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

95 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday August 11, 2011 Swiss National Bank Talks Franc Peg to Euro In an effort to stem the Franc’s rise the Swiss National Bank (SNB) today floated the idea of pegging the Franc to a certain value of Euro’s. While this type of currency strategy was fairly common and has not been employed within the European Union in over 35 years, it is today a fairly radical idea. While it would have a profound effect on reducing the value of the Franc it would have other effects that may not be so desirable. Mainly, raising the inflation rate within Switzerland and it would most certainly slow economic activity. Currently the Swiss Franc is lower against most currencies and until a clear decision is announced it will continue to fall.

U.S. Unemployment Claims came in this morning at 395k, which is a positive step.

Unfortunately every time a report has been under 400k it is revised back above 400k the following week. There needs to be a consistent decrease that reduces the number of claims down to at least the mid 300k range. Employment is by far the crux of the U.S. economic problems.

The U.S. Trade Balance came in at -53.1B the largest decrease in December 2008. This has good points and bad points. The good points are that the U.S. spent more, showing encouraging signs a recession may not be in the near future. The downside is the country spent this money outside its borders further depressing the currency and not employing its own people. The Dollar is lower on the news.

Note: We are having some technical difficulties with our quotes this morning so we will not be able to provide the pivot table and daily support and resistance levels. We do apologize for any inconvenience and hope to have the issue resolved by tomorrow morning.

96 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday August 10, 2011 China’s Trade Balance Increases While this may seem like a minor issue it actually has some fairly heavy consequences. China’s larger exports indicate there is still very good demand from the U.S. and Europe as it is perceived that growth in those two areas are slowing; that is the good side to this report. The bad side is it creates greater inflation within the borders of China and as we saw in yesterday’s inflation report from China, more inflation is the last thing needed. Since the Yuan is linked with the Dollar, a declining Dollar only makes the inflation situation worse for China.

European debt issues continue to plague the Euro currency. Volatility over the last 5 sessions has been very high. Usually there is 2 to 3 days of extreme volatility and then a day or two of subdued trading. High volatility such as this usually means there is a turn coming in the market.

Since the U.S. has more or less addressed its uncertainties all blame will fall on the Euro. My experience is that the Euro will fall and probably fall very hard and fast.

Today look for weakness in the Euro, strength in the Dollar, strength in the Yen and fear of selling intervention in the Swiss Franc.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.6268 78.0825 77.7878 77.2435 76.9488

EUR/USD 1.4492 1.4311 1.4220 1.4039 1.3948

GBP/USD 1.6525 1.6405 1.6351 1.6231 1.6177

571.8

365.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4354 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6301 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.1350 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7229 0.7100 0.7100 0.7100

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1404 1.0378 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.7220 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 76.2100

― 0.7100

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

176.2

USD/CHD 0.7722 0.7625 0.7553 0.7456 0.7384

EUR/CHD 1.1122 1.0877 1.0746 1.0501 1.0370

EUR/JPY 113.1405 111.3910 110.5485 108.7990 107.9565

355.3

789.2

544.3

97 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday August 9, 2011 Chinese Inflation Highest In Years Adding to the market turmoil around the globe China announced this morning that it’s Producer Price Index and its Consumer Price index increased by 7.5% and 6.5% respectively in July.

These are the highest inflation numbers in years for China and leaving China’s Central Bank with no alternative but to increase interest rates yet again. As Europe and the U.S. are reeling from debt issues coupled with potentially slowing growth, China’s economy is so hot that they are having very little success in slowing their internal demand for goods and services. It has become the one bright spot in the global economy that is supporting many parts of the world economy.

In the U.S. the Federal Reserve is meeting today and it is now widely expected they will do something to stimulate the slowing economic growth. Either another Quantitative Easing program (QE 3) or some other stimulative measure to curb market panic will be announced. The Fed will make their announcement at 2:15 pm ET. Today’s trading should be scalping the volatility swings as any longer term trading can be met with unexpected announcements that can move the markets very quickly; in either direction.

Both the Dollar and the Euro are most vulnerable as the U.S. Fed announcement looms and any potential European debt resolution announcements become news.

Tuesday, August 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4466 1.4407 1.4238 1.4179 1.4011

GBP/USD 1.6522 1.6486 1.6359 1.6322 1.6195

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.6713 78.8475 78.5783 77.7545 77.4853

USD/CHD 0.7808 0.7720 0.7649 0.7560 0.7489

EUR/CHD 1.1120 1.1034 1.0893 1.0806 1.0665

EUR/JPY 113.5585 112.9060 111.6225 110.9700 109.6865

477.8 EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4175 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

343.6 GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6318 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

229.5 USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.6630 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

335.2 USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7541 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

477.8 EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1404 1.0689 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

406.6 EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.0950 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

98 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday August 8, 2011 U.S. Downgrade Becomes Non-Event For the first time ever the U.S. debt rating was dropped from AAA to AA+. While everyone had the weekend to think it over the markets still opened with a slight panic. Now the Dollar is actually higher than Friday’s close and bonds are up with yields on the 10 year dropping over 6 bps. Longer term there may still be a selloff in the Dollar, however it will probably be short lived. While U.S. debt was downgraded it is still the safest in the world. Swap spreads, a good indication of risk on U.S. debt are still the lowest in the world.

Europe’s Sentix Investor Confidence report released this morning came in at a negative -13.5 (anything below 0.00 is considered to indicate a contracting economy). This is the first negative showing in a year and the worst in almost 2 years. While this report has a limited impact it still warrants concern with such a sharp drop off in sentiment. Europe’s debt problems coupled with a slowing economy are forcing Euro selling.

Look for continued Dollar buying and Euro selling today.

Monday, August 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4456 1.4232 1.4143 1.3919 1.3830

GBP/USD 1.6494 1.6343 1.6285 1.6133 1.6076

657.3

439.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4279 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.0845 80.7020 78.8485 77.4660 75.6125

USD/CHD 0.7865 0.7743 0.7679 0.7557 0.7492

EUR/CHD 1.1276 1.0982 1.0845 1.0551 1.0414

EUR/JPY 115.5175 113.1650 111.8095 109.4570 108.1015

679.6

391.0

904.9

778.7

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6387 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 78.3680 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7669 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1404 1.0949 1.0707 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 111.9420 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

99 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday August 5, 2011 U.S. Employment Improves U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased 117k last month and revisions for June also increased substantially. Expectations were for an increase of 85k new jobs and last month’s paltry 18k was revised higher to 46k. The actual Unemployment Rate declined to 9.1% and the Average Hourly Earnings ticked up 0.4%. Overall a very encouraging employment report in an otherwise difficult time.

Today’s action will be a day of repositioning after yesterday’s rout of intervention and overall global economic fears. Currencies will rebalance and set up for next week’s action. Watch for price action that will set up technical reversals that will continue on yesterday’s Dollar rally and Euro selling.

Friday, August 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 77.6940 77.4230 77.0980 76.8270 76.5020

EUR/USD 1.4531 1.4463 1.4303 1.4235 1.4075

GBP/USD 1.6580 1.6530 1.6390 1.6339 1.6199

478.8

400.3

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4075 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6238 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 79.0840 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7650 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1889 1.0766 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 111.3110 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

125.2

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.7867 0.7787 0.7707 0.7627 0.7547

EUR/CHD 1.1367 1.1236 1.1015 1.0884 1.0663

EUR/JPY 112.0668 111.5495 110.2998 109.7825 108.5328

336.8

739.2

371.1

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

100 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday August 4, 2011 Currency Intervention For many years central banks did coordinated currency intervention to either support or depress a country’s currency. Reasons for intervention have been many over the years; many of them good reasons. However, currencies are a reflection of the country’s economics and instead of addressing the economic issues of the troubled country, Central Banks attack the currency. For the longest time it became apparent that intervention did little if anything in stabilizing a country’s currency. Now, once again it seems to be in vogue.

If you must trade the Yen and/or the Swiss Franc take only long dollar positions and even then use tight stops. When the banks are in the market it can move 20, 30 pips at a time. Being on the wrong side can crush overall account returns.

Thursday, August 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4331 1.4249 1.4200 1.4117 1.4068

GBP/USD 1.6380 1.6328 1.6276 1.6224 1.6171

277.0

219.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4349 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/3/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.1928 77.7115 77.3318 76.8505 76.4708

USD/CHD 0.7933 0.7780 0.7694 0.7542 0.7456

EUR/CHD 1.1332 1.1066 1.0931 1.0665 1.0531

EUR/JPY 111.6485 110.5090 109.8525 108.7130 108.0565

180.8

500.0

841.0

377.2

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6435 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.1250 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7707 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1889 1.1060 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 110.6660 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

101 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday August 3, 2011 U.S. Planned Layoffs Rise Dramatically Challenger, Gray and Christmas, a Chicago outplacement firm that also tracks layoffs, reported this morning that planned layoffs for July were 60% higher than July 2010. While the layoffs for the first 6 months of the year were mainly concentrated in various government positions, July’s numbers reflect more layoffs from the private sector. Additionally this morning, ADP reported their non-farm payroll assessment of the employment situation and it showed an increase of 114k new jobs; the U.S. government report is due out Friday and is expected to show an increase of 91k.

Switzerland’s National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly lowered rates to stem the rapid increase of the Swiss Franc. While this decrease has had an immediate effect on the currency it will most certainly be short lived and should be used as a buying opportunity for the Swissy. Money will still flow to Switzerland as it has the best performing economy in the industrialized world and is a financial safe haven.

Wednesday, August 03, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4564 1.4406 1.4295 1.4137 1.4026

GBP/USD 1.6571 1.6431 1.6334 1.6194 1.6097

565.1

497.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4183 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.1088 78.4375 77.3658 76.6945 75.6228

USD/CHD 0.8064 0.7955 0.7843 0.7733 0.7621

EUR/CHD 1.1641 1.1408 1.1217 1.0984 1.0793

EUR/JPY 114.1178 112.4695 110.5888 108.9405 107.0598

366.0

464.9

889.6

741.1

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6276 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.2810 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7661 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1889 1.0866 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 112.2800 109.6110 108.7000 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

102 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday August 2, 2011 Safety and Economics Rule Today Fear is ruling today’s trading as Europe debt issues are again surfacing as well as recognition that an economic slowdown is afoot. Safety dictates money flows and today everyone is grading safety first as Switzerland then Japan and finally the U.S. The Euro has once again made new lows against the Swiss Franc and the Yen continues to gain strength against most major currencies. Debt ceiling issues appear to be resolved in the U.S. as a deal was struck and passed by the House of Representatives; the Senate is expected to vote and pass the measure today averting a U.S. government shutdown.

Economically, there are issues. Statistics have not been good lately, for any industrialized country, with the exception of Switzerland. Switzerland Retail Sales reported this morning showed an increase of 7.4% over last year. While this number can be volatile it is the second time in the last 3 months it has shown similar of strength.

U.S. Personal Spending reported this morning came in at a negative 0.2%; expectations were for a positive 0.2% after last month’s positive 0.1%. Normally one month does not usually give reason for concern; however, when combined with other growth numbers reported lately it raises the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. Tuesday, August 02, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4531 1.4467 1.4348 1.4284 1.4165

GBP/USD 1.6600 1.6522 1.6391 1.6312 1.6181

384.9

439.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4272 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 8/1/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.3105 77.6270 77.1725 76.4890 76.0345

USD/CHD 0.8095 0.7978 0.7913 0.7796 0.7731

EUR/CHD 1.1560 1.1435 1.1366 1.1241 1.1172

EUR/JPY 112.0785 111.3890 110.8615 110.1720 109.6445

239.0

382.2

407.2

255.6

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6313 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 77.5660 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7844 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1889 1.1196 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 110.7050 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

103 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday August 1, 2011 Debt Ceiling Deal Reached, Now What?

President Obama announced late Sunday that an agreement had been reached, but not voted on

by Congress. If it does pass then attention will focus on growth and the promised pay down of the debt. With the $1 trillion in immediate spending cuts proposed in the debt ceiling package, growth will be hard to find. Last week’s GDP report showed anemic growth for the first half of the year. Expectations for stronger growth in the second half of the year may now be over stated and additional stimulus by the Federal Reserve may be necessary. This will most certainly hurt the Dollar from a fundamental perspective.

British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing PMI) released this morning was below the magic reading of 50 signaling a potential slowdown. The number released at 49.1 was the lowest in 2 years and the first time it has been below 50 since September 2009. This is yet one more indication that England’s austerity measures are taking hold and slowing growth.

Today, if Congress passes the Debt Ceiling bill, the Dollar will rally if not, it will fall very hard and fast.

Monday, August 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4472 1.4399 1.4326 1.4253 1.4180

GBP/USD 1.6436 1.6402 1.6347 1.6313 1.6259

306.8

186.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4397 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.2100 78.0130 77.8180 77.6210 77.4260

USD/CHD 0.8073 0.8044 0.8017 0.7988 0.7960

EUR/CHD 1.1594 1.1541 1.1482 1.1428 1.1369

EUR/JPY 112.7408 112.1225 111.4698 110.8515 110.1988

82.3

118.6

236.9

266.9

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6423 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 81.4600 79.2600 76.7770 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8152 0.7853 0.7350 0.7350 0.7350

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.1889 1.1308 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 110.5500 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7350

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

104 | P a g e

July 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday July 29, 2011 U.S. 2nd Quarter GDP Less Than Expectations GDP came in less than expectations for the second quarter at 1.3%; expectations were for 1.7% after the first quarter had a growth of 1.9%. Everyone was looking to the 3rd and 4th quarters to make up for the lower first half growth numbers; now, with the debt ceiling issues those second half numbers could be in jeopardy. The Dollar is selling off against most major currencies.

Just before 10 am New York time the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and the University of Michigan sentiment numbers will be released. Expectations are for very little change in the numbers from last month. These are leading indicators and may reflect some of the issues related to the debt ceiling arguments so they could be lower than expectations.

Europe’s CPI came in at 2.5% (year-over-year) less than expected and at its lowest point since February. Most of this decline can be attributed to a decline of retail fuel pricing. Prospects for any future rate hikes by the ECB are quickly diminishing as European economic data shows a slowdown in growth and inflation.

Friday, July 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.9373 78.3775 78.0993 77.5395 77.2613

EUR/USD 1.4605 1.4518 1.4437 1.4350 1.4269

GBP/USD 1.6522 1.6452 1.6358 1.6289 1.6195

353.2

343.6

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4326 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6357 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 77.8170 76.2100 76.2100 76.2100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

176.0

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8091 0.8047 0.8022 0.7979 0.7954

EUR/CHD 1.1705 1.1628 1.1583 1.1505 1.1460

EUR/JPY 113.7085 113.0580 112.6535 112.0030 111.5985

144.1

257.5

221.6

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8016 0.7970 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1485 1.1404 1.1373 1.0000

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 111.4870 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.0000

― 105.4100

105 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday July 26, 2011 Dollar Makes New Record Low Against Swissy As fear spreads that the U.S. Congress will not resolve arguments to raise the debt ceiling, money is positioning to safer havens. Switzerland is really the only true safe haven.

Economically it is in much better shape than its European neighbors and politically it is one of the most stable countries in the world. The Dollar will continue to lose value against the Swiss until the debt ceiling is raised.

British GDP came in at 0.2% as expected, indicating as suspected that an economic slowdown is starting to take hold. Germany’s Gfk Consumer Climate indicator was released this morning at 5.4, slightly less than last month’s report and two tenths of a percent less than expectations.

None of this seems to be hurting the Euro as it is up against most major currencies. Technically, if it closes significantly above 1.4451 (70 pips or more) then, it will start a new uptrend that could take it to the 1.50 level or possibly to the next strongest resistance level around 1.60.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4484 1.4418 1.4371 1.4304 1.4257

GBP/USD 1.6359 1.6329 1.6296 1.6266 1.6233

238.1

132.1

Pivot Points USD/JPY 78.9183 78.6735 78.4743 78.2295 78.0303 93.2

USD/CHD 0.8276 0.8213 0.8183 0.8119 0.8089

EUR/CHD 1.1958 1.1827 1.1759 1.1629 1.1561

EUR/JPY 114.0983 113.3285 112.7883 112.0185 111.4783

196.8

416.2

275.1

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4372 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6279 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.2970 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8054 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1576 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.5380 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 ―

― 105.4100

106 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday July 25, 2011 Debt Impasse Raising Volatility Congress’ inability to raise the U.S. debt ceiling is starting to take center stage as the default deadline is now a week away. The Swiss Franc has made a new high against the Dollar as money flows are seeking out safe havens. Early signs are that the Yen and Swiss Franc will benefit the most in the beginning. Because of Japan’s exposure to U.S. debt, just under $1 trillion, the Yen’s rally will probably be short lived. The Euro will have a difficult time as many European countries hold U.S. debt for various reasons; mostly financial safety. Additionally, Europe has its own debt problems as well as economic issues.

There are no real economic reports of significance scheduled for today so, trading will be focused on the U.S. debt debate and the potential impact across the globe.

Monday, July 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4646 1.4557 1.4348 1.4258 1.4049

GBP/USD 1.6494 1.6430 1.6275 1.6211 1.6056

627.3

460.1

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4356 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.3908 78.9515 78.5798 78.1405 77.7688

USD/CHD 0.8280 0.8224 0.8180 0.8124 0.8079

EUR/CHD 1.1932 1.1873 1.1740 1.1681 1.1549

EUR/JPY 114.6010 114.0880 112.7690 112.2560 110.9370

170.3

210.8

402.6

384.7

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6298 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.5290 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8195 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1767 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.7440 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.3242 ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 105.4100

107 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday July 22, 2011 European Economic Numbers Still Strong Germany’s Ifo came in at 112.9, lower than expectations of 113.7 and last month’s number of 114.5; but overall still a fairly strong number. Industrial New Orders for all of Europe came in at 3.6 the highest reading since last September’s number.

Greece’s debt deal, presented yesterday, appears to have some significant strength. It is a very broad based agreement that lowers interest rates and extends maturities. It also addresses future debt issues by other countries as well as assistance in bolstering Greece’s economy. While this agreement does not encompass all of those holding Greek debt it is a significant start. If all other European debt holders agree to the same terms then the EU may have avoided a catastrophic economic event.

In the U.S. yesterday the Philadelphia Fed released its monthly survey of manufacturers showing an increase of 3.2 in its index. While this reading is low, it is above zero; last month’s reading was a negative -7.7.

Today’s trading will not be as eventful as yesterday’s given that the U.S. Congress is not expected to make any real advances in the Debt Ceiling debate. The Euro is starting out lower so, there are some technical worries as it is not following through with another strong day of advances.

Friday, July 22, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.5180 79.1150 78.9080 78.5050 78.2980

EUR/USD 1.4372 1.4330 1.4231 1.4189 1.4090

GBP/USD 1.6247 1.6217 1.6142 1.6112 1.6037

296.1

220.1

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4496 1.4451 1.4408 1.4013 1.3796 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6545 1.6512 1.6320 1.6053 1.5779 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.5460 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8174 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1777 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 113.1720 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/21/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

128.1

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8297 0.8262 0.8219 0.8184 0.8142

EUR/CHD 1.1845 1.1799 1.1702 1.1655 1.1558

163.0

301.4

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 ―

EUR/JPY 113.0883 112.8195 112.2373 111.9685 111.3863 178.7

― 105.4100

108 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday July 21, 2011 European PMIs All Lower The Purchasing Manager’s Indices for France, Germany and all of Europe came in this morning lower than expectations and lower than last month’s readings. Additionally, the Current Account for all of Europe came in lower. While all this news would normally be bad for the Euro it is actually rallying due to the outcome of the Greek debt resolution. Expect a lot of volatility today as the Greece debt solutions unfold and once all the details are known there is a very good possibility of a Euro sell-off.

The U.S. weekly unemployment claims came in higher than expectations at 418k, expectations were for 409k. This is most certainly not helping the Dollar. Debt Ceiling uncertainty is still driving the U.S. Dollar lower. The longer the uncertainty goes on the more international downward pressure there will be on Dollar assets.

Thursday, July 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4304 1.4244 1.4156 1.4095 1.4008

GBP/USD 1.6243 1.6187 1.6120 1.6064 1.5997

311.4

258.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4260 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6260 1.6164 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/20/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.5610 79.3970 79.1050 78.9410 78.6490

USD/CHD 0.8355 0.8307 0.8228 0.8180 0.8101

EUR/CHD 1.1815 1.1768 1.1640 1.1594 1.1466

266.3

366.4

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.8100 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8223 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1727 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

95.8

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 113.1055 112.7580 111.9595 111.6120 110.8135 240.7

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.3940 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.3242 ―

109 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 105.4100

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday July 20, 2011 EU Debt Meetings Delayed Euro Zone finance ministers scheduled to meet Wednesday evening to once again discuss a restructured bailout for Greece have postponed their meeting until Thursday. Over the past couple of months there have been numerous meetings by many EU officials and so far nothing concrete to make the situation better has come of those meetings. Markets’ anticipation and resolve is fading. Unless there is something of real significance to come out the meeting on Thursday, the Euro will sell off on the news.

Very little economic news is scheduled for today. U.S. Existing Home Sales and European Consumer Confidence are due out at 10 am ET. Home Sales are expected to be an annualized rate of 4.9M units and EU Consumer Confidence is expected to be -10; same as last month.

Later in the day British Consumer Confidence is scheduled to come in at 51 after 55 last month and Japan’s Trade Balance, due out at 7:50 pm ET is expected to show an increase to -0.25T. None of these economic reports are expected to move the markets with any significance. Debt is still the main focus; U.S. and Europe.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.2743 79.1485 79.0453 78.9195 78.8163

EUR/USD 1.4222 1.4186 1.4100 1.4064 1.3977

GBP/USD 1.6189 1.6128 1.6066 1.6005 1.5944

256.6

257.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4170 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6260 1.6125 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.1690 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/19/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

48.1

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8245 0.8209 0.8156 0.8120 0.8068

EUR/CHD 1.1647 1.1605 1.1504 1.1462 1.1362

EUR/JPY 112.4703 112.1715 111.4093 111.1105 110.3483

186.3

300.1

222.8

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8243 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1681 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.1850 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.3242 ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 105.4100

110 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday July 19, 2011 U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts Show Strength Housing Starts came in at 630k and Permits are 620k; both better than expectations. This is the best number for Housing Starts in over a year and the best number for Permits since January this year. The fact that these numbers are picking up for June is encouraging as the summer months are traditionally slower for housing. If July and August numbers come in as high or higher, that would be even more encouraging for the U.S. housing market to have hit a bottom.

Germany’s and the Euro Zone’s Zew reports were released this morning and both were negative as expected; however, Germany’s report was considerably lower than last month and much lower than expectations. Germany’s numbers were expected to be -11.8 and came in at -15.1. The Euro Zone’s numbers came in at -7.0; expectations were for -7.4 after last month’s showing of 5.9. Overall, being negative numbers, shows that the economic outlook for Europe does not have positive expectations from businesses.

The Euro is slightly higher against most major currencies and is more than likely a technical bounce from its most recent lows than for any other reason. Fundamentals are still negative for the Euro as squabbling continues about Greece debt resolution.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4241 1.4190 1.4141 1.4090 1.4040

GBP/USD 1.6215 1.6170 1.6122 1.6077 1.6030

210.6

194.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4125 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6260 1.6067 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.3940 79.2330 79.1060 78.9450 78.8180

USD/CHD 0.8208 0.8157 0.8140 0.8090 0.8072

EUR/CHD 1.1622 1.1543 1.1518 1.1439 1.1413

142.4

218.8

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.0340 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8164 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1534 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 111.6410 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

60.5

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 ―

EUR/JPY 112.8258 112.3295 111.8358 111.3395 110.8458 207.9

― 105.4100

111 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday July 18, 2011 Debt Worries Drive Markets The nagging European debt worries seem to intensify on a daily basis; it really has all the earmarks of a potential out of control crises. Last Friday’s release of European stress tests was once again met by extreme skepticism. The tests did not take into account any country’s sovereign debt default, one of the biggest issues currently plaguing European financial markets.

As a result banking stocks across Europe are down and the Euro is lower against every major currency. Monday’s session opened with the Swiss Franc making yet another new high against the Euro. Safe haven currencies, Yen, Franc and Dollar are once again in vogue; at least for now. The U.S. still needs to resolve its debt ceiling issues by the end of the week or it too will join the Euro in declining faith.

Technically, the Euro should test its lows from last week against the USD and JPY. If it closes below last week’s lows the risk of continued selling increases, pushing the euro to new monthly lows.

Monday, July 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4333 1.4239 1.4177 1.4083 1.4021

GBP/USD 1.6236 1.6197 1.6145 1.6106 1.6055

328.0

190.5

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4155 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.1505 79.5640 79.0105 78.4240 77.8705

USD/CHD 0.8243 0.8187 0.8143 0.8088 0.8043

EUR/CHD 1.1679 1.1587 1.1556 1.1464 1.1433

239.4

209.4

258.7

273.0

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6260 1.6129 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.1200 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8143 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1534 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 111.9930 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 113.3740 112.5190 112.0740 111.2190 110.7740

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.3242 ―

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 105.4100

112 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday July 15, 2011 European Debt & US Debt Financial markets around the world are fixated on debt; Greece, Italy, Portugal Ireland and now the U.S. debt. Banks in Europe have endured yet another stress test with results to be made public today. European finance ministers will meet yet again to discuss a Greek debt default.

And, the U.S. is locked in political wrangling to raise the debt ceiling for monies that have already been committed. The resolution of all these will directly affect the Euro and the Dollar both in the short term and the long term. Today’s markets will fluctuate with the release of information as it becomes known. The U.S. debt ceiling debate will continue for yet another 2 weeks so the Dollar will have to endure continued downward pressure.

The U.S. CPI was released this morning showing an increase in the Core rate of 0.3%. This is slightly higher than the expected 0.2% increase and equal to last month’s increase of 0.3%. Over the past year the CPI has increased 1.8% with the bulk of that increase in the last 2 months. This is actually positive for the Dollar.

Friday, July 15, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4516 1.4429 1.4195 1.4109 1.3875

GBP/USD 1.6405 1.6327 1.6115 1.6037 1.5825

672.8

609.0

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4161 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 79.9060 79.3180 78.9780 78.3900 78.0500

USD/CHD 0.8401 0.8223 0.8151 0.7973 0.7901

EUR/CHD 1.1811 1.1672 1.1582 1.1442 1.1352

194.9

525.2

482.8

369.0

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6260 1.6152 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.9940 78.2400 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8138 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1525 1.1500 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 111.8690 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 ―

EUR/JPY 113.8748 113.3965 112.1178 111.6395 110.3608

― 105.4100

113 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday July 14, 2011 U.S. PPI numbers Mixed U.S. PPI numbers declined -0.4%, expectations were for a decline of -0.2% after last month’s increase of 0.2%. The Core rate, the rate most watched by the Fed, came in higher than expected at 0.3%; although, for the last 12 months the increase is only 2.3%, still low in historical terms.

Retail sales were reported at 0.1%, expectations were for a decrease of -0.1%. Core retail sales were unchanged; expectations were for an increase of 0.1%. Unemployment Clams also showed better at 405k for the week, this is the lowest number since the week ending April 16th. Over all the numbers are encouraging as they are not outright bad. Retail sales need to be more robust month-over-month; something greater than 2% a month would be healthy. Unemployment Claims need to be consistently well below 400k in the weekly count.

European CPI numbers came in as expected at 2.7% with the Core rate slightly higher than expectations. The Core rate of 1.6% was 0.1% higher than expectations although it was within the range that the core rate has been over the last 4 reports.

Technically, the Dollar has experienced damage in yesterday’s trading and continues to move lower in today’s session. The Euro is met with wide spread selling on any rallies, especially against the Yen and the Swissy. Volatility is high in both, it is a scalpers market.

Thursday, July 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4184 1.4097 1.3967 1.3880 1.3750

GBP/USD 1.6063 1.6009 1.5894 1.5840 1.5726

455.7

353.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4269 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.3143 80.3915 79.4293 78.5065 77.5443

USD/CHD 0.8444 0.8374 0.8327 0.8257 0.8210

EUR/CHD 1.1828 1.1728 1.1639 1.1539 1.1450

EUR/JPY 114.4020 112.7600 111.1620 109.5200 107.9220

395.9

245.9

396.9

680.4

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6132 1.6182 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 78.8540 79.1100 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8098 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1557 1.1557 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.5180 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

114 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday July 13, 2011 China’s Economic Numbers Still Strong China reported Retail Sales of 17.7%, the highest number since January. Industrial Production came in at 15.1% the largest increase in a year. GDP came in at 9.5% as expected. Looking at these numbers from a high level position, they are still very strong numbers and show no signs of retreat.

Italy is conducting a bond auction tomorrow, Thursday, and all eyes will be on it to see what the buying interest will be given the recent fear of Italy’s debt repayments. It is possible for the ECB to step in and buy a good portion of the bonds to support the market to avoid panic if enough public buyers do not participate. There are also worries about European banks and the release of stress testing results on Friday. The last set of stress tests was doubted by the markets as to their legitimacy and these new ones will be scrutinized with even a heavier hand as other debt factors now have come into focus. The Euro is higher today after 4 days of heavy selling.

Real solutions will have to be created by Friday to overt another sell-off.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4313 1.4158 1.4072 1.3917 1.3831

GBP/USD 1.6089 1.5978 1.5930 1.5819 1.5770

506.5

334.7

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.3988 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/12/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.1200 80.6970 80.3980 79.9750 79.6760

USD/CHD 0.8416 0.8388 0.8359 0.8331 0.8301

EUR/CHD 1.2016 1.1861 1.1766 1.1612 1.1517

EUR/JPY 115.5758 113.9845 113.1628 111.5715 110.7498

151.6

121.2

523.7

506.7

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6132 1.5924 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.4490 79.1100 77.6600 76.2100

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8315 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1634 1.1557 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 111.1400 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

115 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday July 12, 2011 Trade Balances Increase Both the U.S. and Great Britain’s Trade Balances increased more than expectations. Britain’s balance was expected to be -7.3 billion while the U.S. was expected to be -44.1 billion; actual numbers came in at -8.5 for Britain and -50.2 for the U.S. The increase in imports puts a downward drag on both currencies as more Pounds and Dollars are exchanged for other currencies.

Inflation numbers were reported from France, Germany and Great Britain. France and Germany’s numbers were as expected and are normally somewhat muted due to the broader European reports due out on Thursday. Great Britain’s numbers were all below forecasts and less than last month’s releases damping all hopes of a rate increase by the Bank of England.

Late tonight, New York time, China releases it’s GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

The Euro will be under pressure most of the day unless some meaningful solutions come out of the European Union Finance Ministers’ meeting today; this the second day of meetings.

Yesterday’s meeting yielded no results and if nothing concrete comes of today’s meeting then there will be another sell off in the Euro. On the table of discussions is Greece, Italian and Portuguese debt.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4423 1.4318 1.4262 1.4156 1.4100

GBP/USD 1.6169 1.6115 1.6023 1.5968 1.5876

340.0

307.9

EUR/USD 1.4939 1.4567 1.4263 1.4037 1.3799 1.3428 1.1620

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.7725 81.1040 80.7995 80.1310 79.8265

USD/CHD 0.8563 0.8447 0.8402 0.8286 0.8242

EUR/CHD 1.2234 1.2041 1.1974 1.1781 1.1714

204.3

337.5

545.8

450.2

GBP/USD 1.6738 1.6278 1.6132 1.5899 1.5830 1.5343 1.5041

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.3360 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8359 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.2914 1.2848 1.2349 1.1736 1.1557 1.1500 1.1495

EUR/JPY 123.2400 117.9800 113.4300 112.7780 109.6600 106.7500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↔

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1620

― 1.5041

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 117.3915 115.8420 115.2475 113.6980 113.1035

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

116 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday July 11, 2011 Europe Debt Issues Spread Feared The Euro gapped lower against the Dollar, Yen and Swiss as the markets opened for trading this week. While technically this is a very weak sign for the Euro, fundamentally the market is being driven by fear that the debt crises is spreading. Italian and Spain bond prices dropped forcing yields to record highs against German bonds for the first time since the Euro Zone formation.

While Greek debt issues might seem to be resolved for now, a new round of European debt worries could increase Greece’s chances of a default. The Euro should find support just under 1.40 for the day; around 1.3968.

There are no real economic reports of significance scheduled for today. This week inflation numbers are released by just about everyone; it starts tomorrow as Europe opens.

Monday, July 11, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.7855 81.5490 81.1685 80.9320 80.5515

EUR/USD 1.4482 1.4438 1.4329 1.4285 1.4176

GBP/USD 1.6049 1.6008 1.5976 1.5935 1.5902

321.3

153.9

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4538 1.4263 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6055 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.5710 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

129.6

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8555 0.8502 0.8440 0.8386 0.8324

EUR/CHD 1.2261 1.2213 1.2094 1.2045 1.1926

EUR/JPY 117.6928 117.3185 116.4188 116.0445 115.1448

242.6

352.0

267.5

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8359 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2327 1.1922 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.9070 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

117 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday July 8, 2011 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Much Lower Than Expectations Expectations were running high for the U.S. employment report as yesterday’s ADP report showed a substantial increase in payrolls. Just before the Government’s number release a general consensus was for an increase of 105k new jobs. The report came in at 18k and May’s number was revised in half to 25k. Unemployment also ticked up a tenth of a percent to 9.2%. This is not a good report by any assessment. On immediate release the dollar rallied and then quickly sold off. This report will put the Dollar under selling pressure for most of the day.

Britain’s Producer Price Index came in with an increase of 0.4%; expectations were for a 0.1% increase. Over the past few months the PPI has been declining, while not an even or orderly decline, it is trending lower.

Late tonight, New York time, China will release it’s inflation numbers. The markets will have until Sunday evening New York time to digest them.

Friday, July 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4526 1.4407 1.4346 1.4226 1.4166

GBP/USD 1.6153 1.6073 1.6010 1.5930 1.5867

378.6

300.7

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4538 1.4362 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5971 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.2813 81.0935 80.9273 80.7395 80.5733 74.3

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.2210 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8474 0.8429 0.8396 0.8350 0.8317

EUR/CHD 1.2248 1.2118 1.2042 1.1913 1.1836

EUR/JPY 117.5668 116.5995 116.0688 115.1015 114.5708

164.4

431.8

314.6

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8439 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2327 1.2125 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.6620 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

118 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday July 7, 2011 European Interest Rates Increase As expected the ECB raised rates a half percent to 1.5%. While this move was expected, all ears were on the press conference following the rate decision where every word is scrutinized to determine if the bank is going to raise rates in the near future. Today’s announcement signaled that there would be no rate increases in the near future but left the door open for that to change if energy and food prices increase. The Euro rallied after the news conference.

Britain’s Manufacturing Production came in at 1.8% well above expectations of 1.1%. However, last month’s number was revised lower to negative -1.6% negating any longer term increase.

The BoE left rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls as reported by the payroll company ADP came in much higher than expectations at 157k. Expectations were for 67k after last month’s 36k reading. Many view this as a precursor to the government’s number released the first Friday of the Month - those numbers will be released tomorrow. While the government’s number usually does not equal the ADP number it is reported with a similar increase or decrease from expectations. In either event this is a positive sign for the U.S. economy and the Dollar. The Dollar did rally on the news and then sold off as the ECB released its rate decision explanation.

Thursday, July 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4607 1.4505 1.4451 1.4349 1.4295

GBP/USD 1.6196 1.6126 1.6058 1.5989 1.5921

328.0

288.8

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4538 1.4316 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4785 81.2970 80.9975 80.8160 80.5165

USD/CHD 0.8546 0.8464 0.8423 0.8341 0.8300

EUR/CHD 1.2412 1.2245 1.2172 1.2006 1.1932

EUR/JPY 117.9730 117.4170 117.0480 116.4920 116.1230

101.0

258.5

503.4

194.2

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5999 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.9280 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8392 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2327 1.2017 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.8580 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

119 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday July 6, 2011 Interest Rate Increases Abound?

China raised its lending interest rates to 6.56% and its one year deposit rates to 3.50%; a 0.25% increase for both rates. Lending rates are now about equal to China’s inflation rate. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will raise rates a quarter point tomorrow as well. It will be the second rate increase for the ECB amid banking and debt turmoil. Because this increase has received such anticipation it will only be negative for the Euro. If the ECB raises rates the Euro will fall because it has already been built into the current price. If the ECB does not raise rates then the markets will interpret that as a sign the ECB is worried about the current European economic situation and the Euro will sell off. The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged in their meeting tomorrow.

In the U.S. today the Institute for Supply Management will release its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Expectations are for a reading of 53.9 after last month’s reading of 54.6. This report is important as it gives insight into future economic growth for the service sector, which now accounts for the largest portion of U.S. growth. Any reading above 50 is considered positive and below negative. If today’s number is higher than expectations that will boost the Dollar further if lower it will have a minimal effect unless it is a lot lower; near 50.

Wednesday, July 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4619 1.4578 1.4536 1.4496 1.4454

GBP/USD 1.6174 1.6122 1.6087 1.6036 1.6001

172.6

181.0

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4538 1.4427 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.1195 80.9680 80.7485 80.5970 80.3775

USD/CHD 0.8519 0.8497 0.8479 0.8456 0.8439

EUR/CHD 1.2368 1.2347 1.2323 1.2302 1.2279

77.9

84.8

92.8

149.3

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6058 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.0570 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8402 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2327 1.2126 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.9550 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 118.1180 117.7960 117.4070 117.0850 116.6960

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

120 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday July 5, 2011 Weaker Economic News Weights on Markets European Retail Sales came in at a negative -1.1% on a month over month basis. Of the last 12 Retail Sales reports only 4 have been positive. Great Britain’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 53.9 after expectations of 53.6. The Pound has rallied off of the news; however, the rally may be more technical as the last few Services PMI reports have been in the same range as today’s report - slightly higher and slightly lower.

China’s banks are expected to raise rates again and that has sent the Australian Dollar lower as Australia depends in large part on China’s purchases of Australian goods and services. China, while in need of slower growth to curb inflation, may have already raised rates too much too fast.

Since economic indicators have a lag the possibility exists that China’s economy may have already slowed in certain segments and districts enough to curb those inflationary pressure and just might not being showing up yet in the numbers.

Greece’s debt worries still are haunting the markets as some people seem to feel the latest round of austerity measures by Greece’s parliament are nothing more than window dressing and that Greece will have to default. These risks are causing the U.S. Dollar to once again be a safe haven.

Tuesday, July 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4626 1.4585 1.4510 1.4469 1.4395

GBP/USD 1.6160 1.6116 1.6052 1.6007 1.5943

243.2

228.7

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4538 1.4537 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4558 81.1245 80.8078 80.4765 80.1598

USD/CHD 0.8594 0.8537 0.8467 0.8410 0.8341

EUR/CHD 1.2436 1.2392 1.2288 1.2244 1.2140

136.1

265.7

310.8

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6078 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.7820 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8476 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2327 1.2325 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 117.9920 117.7700 117.2460 117.0240 116.5000 156.7 EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 117.4420 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

121 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday July 4, 2011 Swiss Retail Sales Weaken Dramatically Switzerland’s Retail Sales came in at a negative -4.1%, the steepest decline in several years.

This is a year-over-year number and therefore causes concern as expectations are for growth in the economy; especially from the largest sector of the economy, the consumer. The Swiss Franc is slightly lower against most currencies.

Australian economic reports came in substantially less than expectations with Retail Sales down -0.6% and Building Approvals down -7.9%. Both numbers are noted for being volatile in their month to month reports. On a longer term basis these numbers are showing signs of weakness.

The Australian Dollar is broadly lower against most major currencies.

Because of the U.S. 4th of July holiday today’s trading will be very slow after the European session closes.

Monday, July 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4602 1.4555 1.4491 1.4445 1.4380

GBP/USD 1.6193 1.6123 1.6048 1.5979 1.5903

232.5

304.1

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4535 1.4524 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6070 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 7/1/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.1563 80.8505 80.5533 80.2475 79.9503

USD/CHD 0.8551 0.8481 0.8392 0.8322 0.8233

EUR/CHD 1.2377 1.2294 1.2161 1.2077 1.1945

EUR/JPY 117.8118 117.3455 116.7288 116.2625 115.6458

333.5

454.4

227.4

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.8100 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8473 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2313 1.2313 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

126.6

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 117.3810 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

122 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday July 1, 2011 European, China & Japanese Economic Reports Weaker Japan’s Tankan reports are some of the broadest measures for economic expectations in Japan.

The latest report released today shows the first negative numbers in a year. These reports are provided quarterly so, they include expectations from the March tsunami and earthquake. As reconstruction begins (and has begun) next quarter’s report could be back into the positive.

Japan’s Household Spending was also lower than expectations, -1.9% versus expectations of 1.7%; it is still much better than last month’s -3.0%. The National Core CPI for all of Japan was up 0.6%, this is equal to last month’s rise and may actually be healthily for the economy as it provides businesses with room for expansion. The Yen is mostly lower on all the economic data.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) came in at 50.9, its lowest level in more than 2 years. HSBC’s Final PMI came in at 50.1, the lowest level in almost a year.

Chinese manufacturing may finally be slowing down. The repercussions would be for money to shift to a safe haven currency. At this time that would be either the Yen or the Dollar.

European Unemployment came in at 9.9%, same as it has been for the last 4 reporting months and in the same range, plus or minus a few percentage points, for more than 2 years. Great Britain’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, the lowest level since September 2009. Both the Pound and the Euro are lower on the news.

Friday, July 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4529 1.4492 1.4410 1.4372 1.4290

GBP/USD 1.6144 1.6111 1.6040 1.6007 1.5936

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4353 81.0665 80.8083 80.4395 80.1813

USD/CHD 0.8406 0.8374 0.8335 0.8303 0.8264

EUR/CHD 1.2150 1.2107 1.2015 1.1972 1.1880

EUR/JPY 117.8178 117.1985 116.5448 115.9255 115.2718

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/30/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

251.6 EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4535 1.4501 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

218.0 GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6052 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

131.7 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.5470 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

149.3 USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8401 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

283.3 EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.2186 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

267.3 EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.8100 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

123 | P a g e

June 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday June 30, 2011 European Economic Data Less Than Stellar German Retail Sales and French Consumer Spending both reported negative numbers and are now the third set of negative numbers out of the last four months. Germany’s Retail Sales came in at a decline of -2.8% after last month’s number was revised from a positive 0.6% to unchanged; 0.00%. Expectations for the month of May were for an increase of 0.6%. France’s Consumer Spending has a similar story. May’s report showed French consumers spending less on an inflation adjusted basis than they did 3 months ago. The last 3 reports have come in as negative numbers. May down -1.5%, April down -1.2% and March down -0.7%; these reports show that while inflation was rising consumers, the largest part of the economy, were not spending as much as they did in February. This is a worrisome trend, especially as Trichet made comments today that rates will rise again, most likely next week. European CPI (inflation) was reported today at 2.7% on a yearly figure, same as last month.

To add insult to injury for Europe there is still one more set of votes to be made by Greece in their austerity measures. Those measures are being voted on now and the outcome is expected to be favorable to the Euro; however, the increase may already be factored into the price of the Euro. The Euro may sell off after the news.

Thursday, June 30, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4503 1.4449 1.4343 1.4289 1.4183

GBP/USD 1.6119 1.6063 1.5987 1.5931 1.5855

335.8

278.0

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4432 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.6390 81.4120 81.0330 80.8060 80.4270

USD/CHD 0.8399 0.8359 0.8316 0.8276 0.8233

EUR/CHD 1.2029 1.2003 1.1933 1.1907 1.1836

EUR/JPY 117.7663 117.3265 116.2233 115.7835 114.6803

127.3

174.1

203.1

324.0

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.6059 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.7530 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8339 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.2039 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.5590 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update 124 | P a g e

Wednesday June 29, 2011 Japan Industrial Production Higher Japan’s Industrial Production increased 5.7% for the month of May. This is the largest increase in 2 years. While the increase was largely due to reconstruction efforts of the tsunami and earthquake, it is still an increase. The good thing for Japan is that the reconstruction will take months and possibly years; it will be a big boost to the flagging Japanese economy.

Canada’s CPI came in higher than expectations with a rise of 0.7% and a 0.5% increase for the core rate. Expectations were for an increase of 0.2% for both the full number and the core.

Historically, over the past 2 years, this number has been fairly volatile ranging from a decrease of -0.3% to an increase of 1.1%. The Canadian Dollar is broadly higher on the news.

Euphoria continues in Euro buying as the Greek austerity measures are voted on and protests subside. The vote is expected to continue until sometime Thursday. Persistent intraday wild swings will be the norm until all measures are voted on and there is a final announcement.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4433 1.4381 1.4242 1.4190 1.4050

GBP/USD 1.6073 1.6037 1.5975 1.5938 1.5876

401.7

207.3

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4369 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4420 81.2210 80.7530 80.5320 80.0640

USD/CHD 0.8414 0.8380 0.8348 0.8314 0.8282

EUR/CHD 1.2055 1.2001 1.1903 1.1849 1.1751

EUR/JPY 116.9085 116.4340 115.1305 114.6560 113.3525

144.7

138.8

319.4

373.4

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5997 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.1100 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8317 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.1955 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.5600 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

125 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday June 28, 2011 Britain’s Current Account Down More Than Expectations Not only was last quarter’s Current Account lower than expectations but, the last quarter of 2010 numbers were revised lower as well. The last quarter of 2010 was revised lower from 10.5 billion to 13.0 billion and the first quarter of 2011 was reported at -9.4 billion; expectations were for -5.0 billion. This means less money is being exchanged into Pounds as expected imports continue to be much greater than imports. The Pound is lower on the news.

At 10 am EST this morning the Conference Board releases its U.S. Consumer Confidence numbers; expectations are for 60.8. This is the same as last month’s reading and the lowest since the beginning of the year.

Trading will be choppy today and tomorrow for any Euro cross as the focus will be on Greece’s austerity vote. Protests continue by various groups and leave open the possibility of a defeat of the austerity measures that are beginning voted on by the Greek parliament. This action will keep the volatility high.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4370 1.4270 1.4205 1.4105 1.4041

GBP/USD 1.6072 1.6005 1.5978 1.5910 1.5883

345.5

199.3

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4286 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/27/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.8183 80.5725 80.3503 80.1045 79.8823

USD/CHD 0.8414 0.8360 0.8338 0.8283 0.8262

EUR/CHD 1.2012 1.1899 1.1850 1.1737 1.1688

EUR/JPY 115.2958 114.5795 114.1708 113.4545 113.0458

98.3

160.2

339.4

236.3

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5988 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.8770 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8348 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.1925 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.5450 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

126 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday June 27, 2011 Confidence In Greek Debt Resolution Drives Currency Greece’s Parliament needs to vote and pass stronger austerity measures by June 30, this Thursday, in order to obtain additional needed funds from their European loan package. The Euro was lower in the Asian session today and has since gained ground as the European session opened. There is a tussle of back and forth in expectations and consequently currency pricing.

Until the vote is made public and it is clearly known how the austerity measures will affect the debt payoff, there will be considerable volatility and no real direction for the Euro. The first 3 days of trading this week will be difficult for Euro crosses; high volatility and short-term directions.

In the U.S. the Core PCE Price Index came in 0.3% higher. This is the largest increase in 2 years. The Core PCE measures prices paid by individual consumers for goods and services excluding food and energy. Personal Spending and Personal Income both came in lower than expectations and lower than last month’s reading; these do not really support the higher PCE number.

Monday, June 27, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4478 1.4370 1.4248 1.4139 1.4017

GBP/USD 1.6140 1.6070 1.6004 1.5934 1.5868

484.1

285.4

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4185 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.0228 80.7445 80.5098 80.2315 79.9968

USD/CHD 0.8466 0.8421 0.8392 0.8348 0.8319

EUR/CHD 1.2182 1.2068 1.1956 1.1842 1.1730

EUR/JPY 116.2553 115.5335 114.6823 113.9605 113.1093

107.7

154.6

474.6

330.3

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5956 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.3920 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8325 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.1819 1.1711 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.0460 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5343

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1600

― 105.4100

127 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday June 23, 2011 U.S. Durable Goods Mixed, German Ifo Stronger Durable Goods Orders are a very volatile report providing large discrepancies month to month.

May’s report came in at an increase of 1.9% after the prior month’s decrease of -2.7%. The Core report, which excludes aircraft purchases, came in at an increase of 0.6%; April’s number was a negative -0.4%. Over the past 12 months the average has been a decrease of -3.2%. This means that purchases of large items that last more than 3 years - such as household appliances, cars, or aircraft - have decreased -3.2% from a year ago. Not positive for the economy or the Dollar.

Germany’s Ifo report came in at 114.5, higher than last month and higher than expectations.

This report may be one of the best leading indicators as it is a survey of 7,000 business’ opinions for the next 6 months of business. 114.5 is the best reading since late 2006. Such a high report proves business expectations are still very high in Germany. This will have a positive effect on the Euro.

Friday, June 24, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4473 1.4404 1.4372 1.4303 1.4271

GBP/USD 1.6317 1.6170 1.6115 1.5968 1.5913

211.5

424.0

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6441 1.5935 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.6050 80.4660 80.2360 80.0970 79.8670 77.5

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8479 0.8435 0.8387 0.8343 0.8295

EUR/CHD 1.2185 1.2102 1.2064 1.1981 1.1943

EUR/JPY 115.9983 115.5765 115.3513 114.9295 114.7043

193.2

254.3

135.9

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3019 1.2740 1.2312 1.1845 1.1711 1.1600

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

128 | P a g e

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday June 23, 2011 European PMI’s Mostly Lower Most all of Europe’s Purchasing Manager’s Indices were reported today with the only bright spot being Germany’s Services PMI, 58.3 verses expectations of 55.8, all others were below expectations and below last month’s readings. The worrisome issue with these reports is they are leading indicators of future business expenditures. To have such consistency across all European managers is not a positive sign for Europe’s economic growth or the Euro.

Switzerland’s Trade Balance for last month was the best showing in years with exports outpacing imports 3.31 billion. This is supporting the Swissy, mostly against the Euro. The Euro Swiss hit a new all time low on the news.

U.S. New home sales are due out at 10 am EST and expectations are for 311k last month’s report was 323k. The Dollar is finding strength from several global situations but most importantly from the European debt issues. It is returning to a safe haven currency as trouble mounts elsewhere.

Thursday, June 23, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4505 1.4469 1.4386 1.4349 1.4266

GBP/USD 1.6312 1.6284 1.6225 1.6198 1.6139

251.2

181.9

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4355 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.4843 80.3415 80.1943 80.0515 79.9043

USD/CHD 0.8478 0.8432 0.8415 0.8370 0.8353

EUR/CHD 1.2189 1.2151 1.2109 1.2070 1.2028

EUR/JPY 116.3145 116.0490 115.3455 115.0800 114.3765

60.9

130.6

169.7

203.5

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6070 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2820 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8388 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2042 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.2530 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

129 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday June 22, 2011 Greek Confidence Vote Becomes Non-Event Greece’s Prime Minister, George Papandreou, obtains his confidence vote and now will institute more extreme austerity measures in order to obtain another loan release. The austerity measures in question include 78 billion Euros of budget cuts and asset sales. The people of Greece are being squeezed and more austerity measures will more than likely cause greater unrest. No matter how one looks at this situation it will not end well and Greece will ultimately default.

The BOE released its notes showing 7 of the 9 bank members voting to keep interest rates unchanged. One member also is calling for more bond purchases. This would weaken the Pound. Currently the pound is lower this session by 145 pips.

Today the U.S. Federal reserve will end its two day meeting and provide insight into it views of the economy and what they will do with interest rates. There is a good probability it will be Dollar positive.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4417 1.4371 1.4281 1.4235 1.4144

GBP/USD 1.6312 1.6263 1.6186 1.6137 1.6060

286.2

264.4

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4409 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/21/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.5628 80.4195 80.2188 80.0755 79.8748

USD/CHD 0.8570 0.8515 0.8460 0.8406 0.8351

EUR/CHD 1.2213 1.2165 1.2091 1.2043 1.1968

EUR/JPY 115.9290 115.4880 114.5340 114.0930 113.1390

72.2

230.2

256.4

292.9

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6241 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.1970 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8401 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2110 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.5650 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

130 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday June 21, 2011 European Economic Outlook Turns Negative Overshadowed by the Greece debt situation, Germany and Europe’s ZEW economic outlook both reported a negative number. Germany’s ZEW came in at negative -9.0, the first negative number since October of last year and the worst reading in over 2 years; expectations were for a negative reading of -1.7. Overall Europe’s ZEW came in at negative -5.9 the lowest reading since March of 2009; expectations were for a positive reading of 9.4. These surveys provide investor and analyst economic growth sentiment. While one month’s sentiment will not change the economy it is still worrisome as to the magnitude of the negative sentiment.

The U.S. Existing Home Sales are due out at 10 am EST this morning and expectations are for a decrease from last month’s 505k to 482k. Whether the report comes in higher or lower it is still very low in historical measures and will be a non-event to the Dollar unless the number comes in a lot higher or lower.

The Euro will take center stage today as the focus is on Greece’s parliamentary confidence vote.

If the vote supports more austerity measures that will boost the Euro if not then the Euro will fall.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4472 1.4393 1.4260 1.4181 1.4048

GBP/USD 1.6265 1.6227 1.6160 1.6122 1.6055

445.2

220.5

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4303 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/20/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.8638 80.3985 80.2018 79.7365 79.5398

USD/CHD 0.8545 0.8514 0.8477 0.8446 0.8410

EUR/CHD 1.2257 1.2209 1.2096 1.2047 1.1934

EUR/JPY 115.4140 114.9540 114.3350 113.8750 113.2560

139.0

141.5

339.1

226.6

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6200 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2480 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8461 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2104 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.7820 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

131 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday June 20, 2011 Still No Greek Debt Solution Riots in the streets Greece and the next 12 billion Euros in loans due to be released is not being released because Greece has not made enough austerity changes. Greece is being pushed to edge of what its people can tolerate. It is almost like the leaders of Europe want Greece to default.

Germany’s PPI came in at unchanged for the month of May; this is the second consecutive month of slower price increases. Expectations were for an increase of 0.2% and April’s number was unrevised at 0.1%. Germany makes up a large portion of the Euro Zone economy. A slowdown in pricing at the wholesale level for Germany means a slowdown in pricing for all of Europe and consequently no reason for the ECB to raise rates.

The ECB reported the European Current Account today at -5.1 billion Euros. This is less than the expected -4.8 billion but more than last month’s report of -3.0 billion. While it was less than expectations it is still in the range of reports from the last few months.

Trading today will be focused on a resolution to Greece’s debt issues; there are no scheduled economic reports due out in the U.S. or Europe for the remainder of the day.

Monday, June 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.2588 80.9015 80.6888 80.3315 80.1188

EUR/USD 1.4320 1.4276 1.4174 1.4130 1.4028

GBP/USD 1.6300 1.6229 1.6153 1.6082 1.6007

306.6

307.7

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4300 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6189 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.0140 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8471 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2135 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.4710 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

119.7

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8568 0.8512 0.8492 0.8436 0.8416

EUR/CHD 1.2216 1.2128 1.2037 1.1950 1.1859

159.4

374.6

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

132 | P a g e

EUR/JPY 115.8355 115.2440 114.3635 113.7720 112.8915 309.1

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday June 17, 2011 Possible Greek Debt Resolution President Sarkozy announced a “breakthrough” in the Greek debt situation after meeting with Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. While the details are yet sketchy the market took the news as a chance to cover short positions on the Euro just in case it was a real deal. Taking a step back and looking at the Greek situation one has to ask the question; how is Greece going to pay all this debt back with such high interest rates? Greece is primarily a socialist country which means the people rely on large payouts from the government. If the government is servicing large debt and interest rate payments that means less money is available to the people which means less tax revenue which brings forth the question; where is the money going to come from to service the debt? Unless the European Union is going to forgive debt the only outcome of this mess is going to be Default by Greece. The inevitable is only being put off. Fundamentally these Euro rallies should be good selling opportunities as the odds of a Greek debt forgiveness program are almost zero.

Today’s economic news is small with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment due to be released at 9:55 am EST; expectations are for a reading of 74.2 after last month’s reading of 74.3.

I will be leaving the Live Trading Room at 1:00 pm EST today as I will be travelling. Please feel free to join me any time before 1:00 pm.

Friday, June 17, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4535 1.4324 1.4240 1.4029 1.3945

GBP/USD 1.6448 1.6300 1.6233 1.6085 1.6019

619.5

451.1

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4980 81.2710 80.8230 80.5960 80.1480 141.7

USD/CHD 0.8619 0.8581 0.8511 0.8472 0.8402

EUR/CHD 1.2290 1.2172 1.2127 1.2009 1.1963

227.6

344.0

EUR/JPY 117.0565 115.7290 115.1355 113.8080 113.2145

133 | P a g e

403.4

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/16/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4204 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6155 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.6250 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8475 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2039 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.5080 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

134 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday June 16, 2011 U.S. Economic Numbers Show Improvements U.S. Housing numbers came in better than expected with Permits at 610k and Starts at 560k.

While these are still anemic numbers they continue to creep higher over the long term. The Current Account came in at -119 billion; higher than the expected -126 billion. While not robust it is still U.S. economy and Dollar friendly. The Weekly Unemployment Claims came in at 414k, still above the magic 400k number, but the lowest number in 4 weeks. The 4 week moving average is now 419k.

Britain’s Retail Sales came in at a negative -1.4%; expectations were for a negative -0.5% after last month’s positive 1.1%. While this number can be somewhat volatile it is still the largest decline in over a year. Great Britain’s economic numbers, over the past 30 days, have been showing weakness. Any thought of a rate rise by the BOE is now very remote unless over the next few months there is across the board economic improvement. The British Pound is lower on the news and will continue to fall until it trades to it’s lower targets below 1.60.

Europe’s CPI came in as expected at 2.7%; however the Core was lower than expectations at 1.5%. More than likely this is due to the decrease in retail petro prices. As prices for oil and food decline so will the Core CPI thus lowering any expectations for further rate increases.

Today’s action will again be pro Dollar con Euro. The Euro Swiss already has hit new all time lows and the Euro should see continued weakness against most major currencies today and into tomorrow.

Thursday, June 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4557 1.4499 1.4438 1.4380 1.4319

GBP/USD 1.6469 1.6411 1.6383 1.6325 1.6296

249.5

181.2

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.9480 80.7410 80.4110 80.2040 79.8740 112.8

USD/CHD 0.8535 0.8506 0.8426 0.8396 0.8316

EUR/CHD 1.2412 1.2327 1.2169 1.2084 1.1926

EUR/JPY 117.5303 116.9215 116.0863 115.4775 114.6423

230.0

510.1

303.2

135 | P a g e

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4177 1.4067 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6191 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.9290 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8526 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2090 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 114.7680 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.1700

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

136 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday June 15, 2011 U.S. Core CPI Higher Than Expected U.S. inflation came in as expected with the much watched core number, prices excluding food and energy, gaining a tenth of a percent more than expectations. Over the past year this has now become a trend of higher core prices; potential inflation in a weak economy. Industrial Production with Capacity Utilization is due out at 9:15 EST. Expectations are for an increase of 0.3% and a Capacity Utilization of 77.1%. If these numbers come in at expectations or higher that would be very positive for the Dollar.

The Swiss PPI came in less than expectations at negative -0.2%; expectations were for a rise of 0.1%. British unemployment claims also came in higher than expected and last week’s number was revised higher as well. The only bright spot in Europe was the Industrial Production number that came in at an increase of 0.2%; expectations were for a decrease of -0.1% and last month’s number was revised higher to 0.0% from a negative -0.2%. Overall, none of these numbers are helping the Euro or Pound. Technically, the patterns are for a weaker Euro and Pound; especially longer term.

Please check out the new article in Articles for Argument titled “U.S. Strategic Debt Default; Republican Political Suicide?” and feel free to comment.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4502 1.4466 1.4393 1.4357 1.4284

GBP/USD 1.6511 1.6460 1.6337 1.6286 1.6164

229.5

364.1

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4497 1.4439 1.4278 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.8835 80.5090 80.3085 79.9340 79.7335

USD/CHD 0.8504 0.8427 0.8389 0.8312 0.8274

EUR/CHD 1.2203 1.2131 1.2067 1.1996 1.1932

EUR/JPY 116.2823 116.0175 115.4803 115.2155 114.6783

120.8

240.9

284.3

168.4

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6368 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.4730 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8451 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2205 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.2070 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

137 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday June 14, 2011 China’s Inflation & Growth Still Too Strong Inflation in China last month gained another 5.5% at the consumer level and 6.8% at the wholesale level. The Central Bank of China responded with an increase of reserve requirements to 21.5%; an increase of a half a percent. Growth continues to be strong in China with Industrial Production climbing 13.3% from last year and Retail Sales climbing 16.9% from last year at this time. These numbers are very high by any standard and have been consistently climbing at these rates for over 2 years. In historical terms this type of growth for such a long period of time usually leads to a “boom and bust” type of scenario.

Great Britain’s CPI came in at 4.5%, equal to expectations and same as last month’s number.

The Core number came in slightly lower than expectations at 3.3%. The lesser watched RPI, inflation of products for consumption, came in at 5.2%; slightly less than expected but still at the upper end of the reporting range for the last couple of years.

The U.S. PPI came in at 0.2%, both the core rate and the all inclusive rate. Expectations were for 0.2% for the Core rate and 0.1% for the all inclusive rate. U.S. Retail Sales came in at negative 0.2%; the lowest reading in a year. The Core Retail Sales came in as expected at 0.3%, but the lowest since February 2011.

Overall the reports were positive for the British Pound and for the Euro. The Dollar is rallying slightly after the reports but may not hold its strength as technically it needs to test its most recent lows before moving higher.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4612 1.4446 1.4384 1.4218 1.4156

GBP/USD 1.6432 1.6308 1.6259 1.6136 1.6087

478.8

361.8

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.7298 80.5135 80.2368 80.0205 79.7438 103.5

USD/CHD 0.8463 0.8445 0.8420 0.8401 0.8377

EUR/CHD 1.2286 1.2167 1.2112 1.1992 1.1938

90.5

365.6

EUR/JPY 117.4010 116.0290 115.4850 114.1130 113.5690

138 | P a g e

402.4

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4411 1.4278 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6373 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2240 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8369 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2064 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.6170 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

139 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday June 13, 2011 More Evidence of Global Slowdown Japanese Machinery Orders and New Loans in China came in lower than expected while New Zealand’s home sale prices declined. Japanese Machinery Orders came in at a negative -3.3% while expectations were for 2.0%; a slowdown was expected because of slower production from the earthquake, but not to this degree of decline. Tonight at 10 pm EST will be the release of most of China’s major economic reports; production, inflation and retail sales will all be reported. We will then have a better idea of Chinese growth or slowdown.

Today’s currency trading focus will be on Europe’s dealing with the Greek debt restructuring as the debt saga continues to show little favorable solutions other than an outright default. The Euro hit an all-time low against the Swissy as concerns drove more European money into Switzerland.

Monday, June 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4710 1.4595 1.4536 1.4421 1.4362

GBP/USD 1.6494 1.6414 1.6386 1.6307 1.6278

365.8

226.6

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4344 1.4278 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/10/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.8170 80.6380 80.2340 80.0550 79.6510

USD/CHD 0.8495 0.8455 0.8404 0.8364 0.8313

EUR/CHD 1.2338 1.2262 1.2225 1.2148 1.2111

EUR/JPY 118.1685 117.3480 116.6305 115.8100 115.0925

122.4

190.5

238.8

323.0

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6219 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2910 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8426 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2092 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 115.1990 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

140 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday June 10, 2011 Weaker British Economic Data Sends Pound Lower Manufacturing and Industrial Productions came in much lower than expectations, both deeply into negative territory. Manufacturing Production was a negative -1.5%; expectations were for 0.0% and last month was a rise of 0.2%. The less watched Industrial Production came in at a negative -1.7%; expectations were for a positive 0.1% after last month’s 0.2% gain. This is the weakest production numbers for Great Britain in almost 2 years.

French Industrial Production also came in lower and a negative number as well; -0.3% versus an expected 0.4%. April’s number was also revised lower to -1.1% from -0.9%. With production slowing 2 months in a row for France, the EU’s second largest economy, the possibility of another rate rise is beginning to fade. The Euro is lower on the news.

Today’s trading will be dollar and Yen oriented as both currencies are technically oversold.

Friday, June 10, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4736 1.4648 1.4606 1.4518 1.4476

GBP/USD 1.6502 1.6452 1.6400 1.6350 1.6297

273.6

214.4

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4894 1.4508 1.4503 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.5105 80.1670 79.9285 79.5850 79.3465

USD/CHD 0.8392 0.8373 0.8359 0.8340 0.8326

EUR/CHD 1.2329 1.2249 1.2212 1.2132 1.2095

EUR/JPY 118.3320 117.2740 116.7810 115.7230 115.2300

122.2

70.1

245.7

325.7

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6359 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.3450 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8409 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2205 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.5720 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

141 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday June 9, 2011 ECB & BOE Leave Rates Unchanged Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left rates unchanged. An unchanged interest rate by both was widely anticipated. It is now the language that everyone tries to interpret for future rate increases; expectations are for the ECB to give an indication they will raise rates in July. The use of the phrase “strong vigilance” was used in Trichet’s comments indicating the ECB will raise rates in July from 1.25% to 1.50%. The Euro is experiencing broad based selling on the news as technical’s have turned bearish.

The U.S. Trade Balance came in a little lower than expected as imports were lower for the month of May; -43.7 billion verses expectations of 48.6 billion. Weekly unemployment claims were slightly higher at 427k; expectations were for 424k. The 4 week moving average is now at 424k staying above 400k for the 6th week in a row.

Today’s trading will be dollar focused as technically it is due for a bounce.

Thursday, June 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4792 1.4756 1.4659 1.4623 1.4527

GBP/USD 1.6568 1.6516 1.6420 1.6369 1.6272

277.8

310.2

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4894 1.4581 1.4503 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6400 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.4648 80.2515 80.1128 79.8995 79.7608 73.9

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 79.8770 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8422 0.8391 0.8358 0.8326 0.8293

EUR/CHD 1.2409 1.2357 1.2260 1.2208 1.2111

135.0

312.3

EUR/JPY 118.6533 118.2335 117.4643 117.0445 116.2753 249.7

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8357 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2190 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.4860 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.1729 0.7954

1.3242 1.1993

142 | P a g e

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday June 8, 2011 Lower Euro Data Weight on Currency Lower than expected European economic data and a warning from Moody’s about U.K. debt is sending the Euro and Pound lower. French and German Trade Balances came in lower than expected; France -7.1 billion, expectations were for -5.6 billion. Germany’s trade balance had been expected to be 14 billion and came in at 12 billion. Industrial Production in Germany also came in lower at a negative -0.6%, the first negative number since February. Last month’s number was revised higher to 1.2% from 0.7%.

Moody’s rating agency warned that if England did not meet its fiscal consolidation targets and the U.K. economy continued to slow, that Moody’s would have to cut its rating of U.K. debt.

There are several problems with this statement; one, other rating agencies will most certainly follow with the same or similar verbiage. Two, once something like this starts it becomes harder to contain. Not a good situation for the Pound; short or long term.

At 2 pm EST the Fed reports its Beige Book. While much of the information contained within the report is known, the report usually puts all the information into a comparative perspective.

Economic data has not been good lately so this report could cause the Dollar to sell off as past data is brought front and center.

Wednesday, June 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

Pivot Points USD/JPY 80.5495 80.2970 80.1345 79.8820 79.7195

EUR/USD 1.4692 1.4625 1.4591 1.4524 1.4490

GBP/USD 1.6496 1.6413 1.6377 1.6293 1.6257

211.7

251.2

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4894 1.4690 1.4503 1.3968 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6443 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.0750 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

87.2

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8407 0.8372 0.8349 0.8314 0.8291

EUR/CHD 1.2284 1.2212 1.2186 1.2114 1.2088

EUR/JPY 118.0580 117.3030 116.9380 116.1830 115.8180

121.8

206.0

235.2

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8359 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1.1729 0.7954

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2283 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 117.6400 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

143 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday June 7, 2011 European Retail Sales Much Higher European Retail Sales grew 0.9% last month, its largest increase since June 2008. Expectations were for an increase of 0.4% and last month’s number was revised higher from a negative -1.0% to negative -0.9%. This is a volatile number and prone to large revisions. German Factory Orders also came in higher than expected at 2.8% after last month’s revised negative -2.7%; this can be a volatile number as well as and can include large revisions. Additional news that Greek bonds would be rolled over in a new debt plan also aided to positive sentiment for the Euro Zone. The Euro rallied earlier in the session than fell back. Look for it to gain again in the latter half of the session.

U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks this afternoon and all ears will be attentive to see if he gives any insights as to what the Fed will do after QE2 is completed later this month; if there will be more quantitative easing or some other form of stimulation. In wake of the recent economic reports showing U.S. economic weakness there is much talk of a QE3 or some other quantitative easing to head off another recession. This would be bearish for the Dollar; short and long term.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4776 1.4717 1.4584 1.4525 1.4392

GBP/USD 1.6541 1.6493 1.6389 1.6341 1.6237

403.0

319.8

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4894 1.4575 1.4503 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.3333 80.7055 80.3753 79.7475 79.4173

USD/CHD 0.8478 0.8397 0.8363 0.8282 0.8249

EUR/CHD 1.2333 1.2272 1.2189 1.2128 1.2045

EUR/JPY 118.6900 118.1510 117.0320 116.4930 115.3740

201.2

240.9

302.2

348.2

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6353 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.0900 79.5600 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8343 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2163 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 116.7430 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4894

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

144 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday June 6, 2011 Uncertainty Guides Currencies Today Very little economic news and growth uncertainty is guiding currencies today. There is no cohesive intraday direction at the moment. The Euro Zone PPI came in at 0.9% slightly higher than expectations of 0.8%; however, it has failed to move the Euro. Much concern is on slower growth prospects in the U.S. as many economic reports last week showed signs of a slowdown.

Technically, the Euro has no reason to retrace from this level and should test the May highs around 1.50. The Swiss continues to show great strength against all major currencies; however recent reports indicate some potential slowing, especially in sentiment indicators. The Dollar should find support at it’s May lows just under 7300.

Monday, June 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4657 1.4594 1.4450 1.4387 1.4244

GBP/USD 1.6477 1.6424 1.6364 1.6312 1.6252

433.6

236.3

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4894 1.4634 1.4503 1.3968 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/3/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.6753 81.2635 80.9053 80.4935 80.1353

USD/CHD 0.8475 0.8446 0.8423 0.8395 0.8372

EUR/CHD 1.2345 1.2292 1.2172 1.2118 1.1998

EUR/JPY 118.4480 117.9880 116.8760 116.4160 115.3040

161.7

107.7

364.1

330.1

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6422 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2450 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8891 0.8335 0.8050 0.7954 0.7904

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2203 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.7900 117.4510 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

145 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday June 3, 2011 Unemployment Higher Non-Farm Payrolls Lower The U.S. Unemployment Rate rose to 9.1% in May and Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 54k.

Expectations were for an unchanged Unemployment rate of 9.0% and an increase of Non-Farm Payrolls of 161k. Last month’s, April, Non-Farm Payroll number was also revised lower to 232k from 244k. Wednesday’s ADP report also showed a significantly lower Non-Farm Payroll number. U.S. hiring is slowing down, the question is will it continue through the summer or will this be a couple month aberration? Summer is not known for big hiring months. The Dollar fell after the report, but has since recovered.

British Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 53.8; lower than expectations and lower than last month’s 54.3 reading. This is the lowest reading since December 2010 although it is not far out of the range of readings since December. The European revised Final Services PMI came in at 56.0 slightly more than expected. The British Pound is down slightly against some currencies on the news. The Euro is giving back much of it’s gains from yesterday.

Fx Addicts Webinar is today at 11 am EST, please join us as we will be discussing more about the unemployment report.

Friday, June 03, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4496 1.4396 1.4358 1.4258 1.4220

GBP/USD 1.6537 1.6414 1.6372 1.6248 1.6206

289.0

347.8

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4518 1.4490 1.4278 1.3906 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.9290 81.3910 81.0210 80.4830 80.1130

USD/CHD 0.8600 0.8498 0.8439 0.8337 0.8279

EUR/CHD 1.2385 1.2192 1.2124 1.1931 1.1863

EUR/JPY 118.2008 116.8815 116.3768 115.0575 114.5528

190.7

336.6

548.5

383.0

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6368 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.8780 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8893 0.8421 0.8388 0.8322 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2205 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.4300 117.2010 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

146 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday June 2, 2011 Euro Rallies On Trichet Comments ECB President Trichet made an official call for a single Euro Finance Ministry. While this idea is not new it is the first time the ECB president has come out recommending the creation. A Euro Finance Ministry, depending on it’s authority and mandate, could go a long ways to stabilize and keep in line Euro currency related debt. If it were agreed to, it would take years to create; however, the markets are reading the mere suggestion as a positive sign that the ECB will work to stabilize and contain Greece, Ireland and Portuguese debt. The Euro rallied as the news was announced.

U.S. Unemployment Claims came in at 422k, higher than expectations and still above the 400k level. Summers are not known for substantial job growth amongst skilled employees, it is mostly known for increases in school summer help which do nothing for unemployment claims.

The dollar is lower on prospects of continued Fed easing and technically needs to test lows made at the beginning of May under 7300. It can get there in a couple of days or over the next two weeks. Once this level is reached the Dollar will need to rally strong or it will fall to record lows.

Thursday, June 02, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4518 1.4468 1.4373 1.4322 1.4227

GBP/USD 1.6588 1.6506 1.6464 1.6383 1.6341

306.0

259.4

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4327 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 6/1/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.4330 82.0410 81.3740 80.9820 80.3150

USD/CHD 0.8602 0.8579 0.8521 0.8497 0.8440

EUR/CHD 1.2420 1.2371 1.2263 1.2214 1.2106

EUR/JPY 119.2528 118.4675 117.0088 116.2235 114.7648

222.4

170.3

329.3

471.2

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6331 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.9380 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8893 0.8417 0.8388 0.8322 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2061 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.4300 115.9700 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

147 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday June 1, 2011 ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Drastically Lower Many people consider the ADP Employment report to be a forerunner to the government’s report on Friday. Since ADP has the unique everyday dealings with thousands of employers as compared to the government’s once a month request, ADP’s report may hold more accurate information. ADP’s report showed for May that non-farm payrolls grew only by 38,000, this is the lowest reading since October last year when the reading was negative job growth. It is also a very steep decline over a couple month’s period of time; April’s reading came in at a revised 177k. This was also lower than its original expectations and considerably less than the 200,000 plus numbers since the beginning of the year. This is not long term positive for the Dollar and may cause talk of further quantitative easing by the Fed. British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.1; this is the lowest reading in a progression of lower readings since January’s high of 62.0 and the lowest reading overall since November 2009. A number below 50 indicates potential contraction in the manufacturing sector. This is very negative for the British economy and the Pound.

Australian GDP also came in substantially lower at negative -1.2%, the first negative number since first quarter 2009. This may be a one quarter aberration as the flooding in Queensland took a large economic toll as well as the Japanese earthquake and tsunami slowed production materials.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4350 1.4312 1.4284 1.4247 1.4219

GBP/USD 1.6537 1.6502 1.6475 1.6440 1.6414

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.1405 81.0490 80.8805 80.7890 80.6205

EUR/JPY 115.9765 115.7930 115.4935 115.3100 115.0105

137.3

129.6

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6444 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.5120 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8893 0.8538 0.8420 0.8322 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2294 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.4300 117.3470 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

119.7

EUR/CHD 1.2223 1.2200 1.2161 1.2138 1.2099

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4395 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/31/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

54.6

USD/CHD 0.8566 0.8546 0.8509 0.8489 0.8452

1.1729 0.7959

129.6

101.4

1.3242 1.1993

148 | P a g e

― 91.2300

May 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday May 31, 2011 Switzerland’s GDP Slowest Since 3rd Quarter 2009 Swiss GDP came in at 0.3%, the lowest since an equal increase in the third quarter of 2009.

Expectations were for 0.6% and last quarter’s number was revised lower by one tenth of a percent as well. The Swiss economy is starting to show signs of slowing. In a bevy of European economic reports there were mixed numbers; German retail sales were lower than expectations but better than last month, German unemployment was worse than expectations, overall Euro Unemployment was unchanged at 9.9%, and European Flash CPI came in at 2.7% slightly less than expectations. On balance the Euro is stronger; however it was stronger before all the reports on continued speculative buying as optimism goes for Greek debt solutions.

At 9:45 am EST the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index is reported and at 10 am EST we get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence number; the Purchasing Manager’s report is expected to be less than last month and the Consumer Confidence number is expected to be better than last month. They would both need to be a lot better to raise the dollar today.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/30/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4469 1.4417 1.4271 1.4219 1.4073

GBP/USD 1.6606 1.6566 1.6472 1.6432 1.6338

416.0

281.6

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4278 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6573 1.6471 1.6058 1.5343 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.5978 81.0845 80.8898 80.3765 80.1818 148.7

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.9170 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8717 0.8573 0.8517 0.8374 0.8318

EUR/CHD 1.2309 1.2208 1.2154 1.2053 1.1998

EUR/JPY 116.7810 116.2660 115.4680 114.9530 114.1550

418.5

326.6

275.7

USD/CHD 1.1090 0.8938 0.8893 0.8518 0.8420 0.8322 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2168 1.1993 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 117.2300 115.5500 113.4000 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

149 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday May 30, 2011 Canadian GDP Increases More Than Expectations Canada releases a monthly number for their GDP that is inflation adjusted and the latest release is for the month of March. March GDP increased 0.3% over February’s -0.1% decline.

Annually, Canada is running an inflation adjusted GDP of 3.9% for the first quarter 2011.

Canada’s Current Account came in at a -8.9 Billion; expectations were for a negative -2.9 billion after last month’s revised negative -10.3 billion number. Canada has now run a negative Current Account since 3rd quarter 2008. Overall, both reports counter each other and are having very little effect on the Canadian Dollar.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance came in much higher than expected and has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year. Expectations were for 603 Million and it came in at 1.1 billion. The Kiwi is trading at a 26 year high against the U.S. Dollar after the news.

Today is a U.S. and British holiday so the rest of the session will be very thin trading with very little movement. Tomorrow holds a large slew of economic data starting tonight with Australia’s Current Account and then early morning Switzerland’s GDP report expecting to show slightly less growth than last quarter.

150 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday May 27, 2011 Euro Much Stronger on Asian Buying Interest The Euro was considerably stronger in Asian and European trading as comments out of China indicated strong interest in buying Euro Zone distressed country debt. They made comments that they were interested in purchasing Portuguese debt and other distressed European debt.

Britain’s GfK Consumer Confidence was reported this morning at -21. There seems to be a sense of euphoria over the higher than expected number. This is a survey of 2,000 people that requests their opinion of future and past past economic conditions. A reading above 0.00 is considered to show optimism and below 0.00 pessimism; it has not been above 0.00 since 2006.

And, while this number was higher than expectations and better than last month’s reading it is within the range of -13 to -31 that has been surveyed for the past 2 years.

Britain’s Housing Price Index also came in higher at 0.3%. This is traditionally a fairly volatile number and over the past 6 months it has shown increases by as much as 0.5% and decreases by as much as -0.3%. The Pound is higher on these news items.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer was reported this morning and is equal to last month’s reading of 2.30. Over the past 12 months this number has showed a fairly steady increase. It is a composite of 12 economic indicators and shows potential economic strength for the future. The Swiss Franc is up broadly against most currencies on the news.

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income came in slightly less than expectations and as expected, respectively. The disappointing part of the report were the revisions from last month, both were revised lower by a tenth of a percent. These revisions do not help the Dollar. We still have the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations due out at 9:55 am EST and also at 10 am EST Pending Home Sales. The Dollar has a chance to gain back some of it’s losses for the day on these reports.

A couple of quick comments; first oil is again above $100 per barrel and technically looks like it could rally before it again falls. Goldman Sachs has come out and stated that oil will rise to $140 per barrel by the end of 2012. While the time frame is usually never correct, they usually are correct about the price. It may be because they have the financial power with which to push it to those levels. Second, the Dollar is also come under some extreme bearishness from many large money managers, more than usual as of late. While I am usually a contrarian in these types of situations I have learned that “big” money has the power to move markets the way they project and to not fight the “tape”. In my experience “big” money’s projections are correct in the near term. As the markets hit their projections in a much shorter time frame every sooth slayer comes out of the woodwork making outrageous projections; this usually signals the end of the move. I expect that we are close to a bottom in the Dollar and a high in oil. I will know for sure when “gurus” are making wild public projections of $250 per barrel oil and 50 for the Dollar index.

151 | P a g e

Yesterday the Currency Professor had minor technical issues; a computer crash. So, I do apologize for not sending a market email yesterday morning and also a video yesterday afternoon.

Friday, May 27, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/26/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

EUR/USD 1.4178 1.4133 1.4073 1.4028 1.3968

GBP/USD 1.6403 1.6352 1.6242 1.6191 1.6080

220.5

338.3

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4133 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009 ↓ ↓ ↓ ― 1.3981

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.3793 82.2205 82.0053 81.8465 81.6313

USD/CHD 0.8847 0.8777 0.8742 0.8672 0.8637

EUR/CHD 1.2453 1.2357 1.2313 1.2218 1.2174

EUR/JPY 116.4433 116.0465 115.3793 114.9825 114.3153

78.5

219.9

292.3

223.4

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6386 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.3580 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8649 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2226 1.2228 1.1993 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 114.9930 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

― 1.5981

152 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday May 25, 2011 U.S. Durable Goods Lower Than Expected Durable Goods orders came in at a negative -3.6%, much lower than the expected -2.0%. The core reading was also lower than expectations at -1.5%; a positive 0.7% was expected. This number is always a volatile number and is almost always revised higher. In the last 12 months there have been 7 initial number releases that were negative and of those seven, four were revised to positive numbers. The initial knee jerk reaction was to sell the Dollar on the news, it has since recovered.

British Preliminary Business Investment for the first quarter was released this morning showing its largest decline in 7 months. This number almost always gets revised up however; this is a fairly low reading and will probably be revised still to a negative number. Preliminary Business Investment is the change in investment by private and government entities and has been adjusted for inflation.

Today’s action will be further consolidation in the Dollar with an upward bias and the Euro will have a downward bias against most currencies.

Also, please check out a new article posted in the Articles for Argument section entitled; Europe Is Doing Everything Wrong - They Will Be In Another Recession By First Quarter 2012!

Please feel free to post comments.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.5248 82.2955 81.8048 81.5755 81.0848

EUR/USD 1.4225 1.4134 1.4051 1.3960 1.3877

GBP/USD 1.6285 1.6191 1.6139 1.6045 1.5993

365.6

305.8

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4102 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6180 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 82.0020 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8796 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2407 1.2335 1.2335 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 115.6420 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

151.2

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8911 0.8881 0.8818 0.8788 0.8724

EUR/CHD 1.2494 1.2463 1.2393 1.2362 1.2292

EUR/JPY 116.6435 115.9630 114.9115 114.2310 113.1795

196.3

211.5

363.7

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

153 | P a g e

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday May 24, 2011 EU Economic Numbers Have Underlying Issues While the reports beat expectations they fail to show increases from last period’s readings and also fail to show robust economic activity. The German IFO Business Climate Survey, a survey of over 7,000 businesses expectations for company growth, came in at 114.2, a very good number and higher than the expectations of 113.9. However, it is equal to last month’s number and is not robust enough to warrant runaway economic growth and an impending rate increase.

Public sector borrowing came in at 7.7 billion, higher than the expected 5.0 billion but less than half of last month’s 15.6 billion; this is the lowest reading in 3 months. European Industrial New Orders came in at -1.8%, the first negative number in 6 months. Expectations were for -1.2% after last month’s increase of 0.5%. These numbers peaked about 4 months ago have been declining ever since.

U.S. New Home Sales are scheduled out at 10 am EST this morning and are expecting to show an annual number of 305k units. This number has ranged from 275k to 325k over the past 7 months; far from the hay days of 2005/2006. If today’s number comes in toward the upper end of that range, 325k, then the Dollar could get a boost higher.

Trading could be slow today as the markets take a breather from the latest round of Dollar buying. The Dollar euphoria is starting to wane. Technically it needs to hit above 7650 another time and then it should sell off to test it’s lows around 73.00.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4404 1.4251 1.4192 1.4039 1.3979

GBP/USD 1.6368 1.6294 1.6230 1.6155 1.6091

445.6

290.2

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.0673 81.8985 81.6863 81.5175 81.3053 80.0

USD/CHD 0.8897 0.8832 0.8789 0.8725 0.8681

EUR/CHD 1.2715 1.2543 1.2473 1.2301 1.2231

EUR/JPY 117.6275 116.4370 115.9705 114.7800 114.3135

226.4

507.8

348.0

154 | P a g e

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/23/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4047 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6118 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.9360 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8835 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2413 1.2335 1.2335 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 115.1010 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

1.3242 1.1993

155 | P a g e

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Monday May 23, 2011 Europe’s Debt and Economic Woes Grow Norway suspends Greece aid, Fitch downgrades Greece’s debt and European economic data shows signs of a slowdown. The Euro is trading lower ag against ainst most major currencies. France, Germany and the Euro zone Purchasing Manager’s Indices were all reported this morning and both the Manufacturing and Services PMI’s were lower than expectations on all accounts with the exception of the French Services PMI; which was slightly higher than expectations. These are leading indicators as it is a survey of manager’s expectations.

Today’s and tomorrow’s economic reports are thin so trading will be concentrated on techincals.

The EUR/USD should find support around the 139 level and the Dollar Index should find resistance in the 7650 area. News items concerning Europe’s debt issues could weight on the currency further if no concrete solutions emerge soon. The risk of a Greek default is closer now than it has been in recent weeks.

156 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday May 20, 2011 Bundesbank Says Germany’s Growth Could Slow In the Bundesbank’s, Gemany’s Central Bank, monthly bulletin released today, expectations for Europe’s largest economy is for slower growth, thus diminishing hopes for further European rate increases. On the flip side to those statements, Germany’s April Producer Price Index was reported today and came in much higher than expected. This measure of wholesale inflation is reported including all products so April’s number is inflated because crude prices at the time had risen substantially in April. The number came in at 1.0%; expectations were for 0.6% and March’s reading was 0.4%. The Euro is selling off on the ECB comments and anticipating that May’s PPI will be considerably lower then Aprils because of the decline in oil prices.

Canadian Core Retail Sales came in lower than expected and was the second negative number in the last three reporting months. Expectations were for a rise of 0.8% and the number came in at 0.1%. Canada has been one of the pillars of strength through the global recession and now they are showing signs of weakness.

Today’s trading will be focused on a weaker Euro and a more positive Dollar. Monday’s session will determine if the Euro can re-gain footing from it’s latest slump. If not it will make new lows testing its 50% retracement level against the Dollar.

Friday, May 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4337 1.4296 1.4245 1.4204 1.4153

GBP/USD 1.6364 1.6259 1.6182 1.6076 1.5999

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.2968 82.0655 81.4988 81.2675 80.7008

USD/CHD 0.8871 0.8837 0.8810 0.8776 0.8749

EUR/CHD 1.2609 1.2581 1.2550 1.2522 1.2491

EUR/JPY 117.3163 116.9895 116.1033 115.7765 114.8903

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/19/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

192.8 EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4308 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

382.8 GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6225 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

167.6 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 81.7600 81.6710 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

128.1 USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8806 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

123.9 EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2601 1.2487 1.2400 1.1993

254.7 EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 116.8630 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

157 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday May 19, 2011 Japan Officially Enters Recession GDP for the first quarter in Japan came in at -0.9% less than the already expected low reading of -0.5% making it the second quarter in a row of negative growth numbers. Last quarter’s number was also revised lower to -0.8% from -0.3%. The more troubling number is the price index associated with GDP that came in at -1.9%, as expected, but it is the seventh quarter of declining prices. Deflation is much harder to control than inflation and has an even greater impact when growth is negative. While much of the negative GDP number can be attributed to the earthquake and tsunami, the pricing declines have a more ominous side, one that will make recovery much tougher even with reconstruction of earthquake ravaged areas. These numbers are not Yen positive against any currency, and lessens the expected economic boost that could happen with reconstruction.

The Swiss ZEW report came in at a negative 11.5, numbers below 0.0 are considered pessimistic. This is a survey of investors and analysts opinions for future growth prospects. The Swiss Franc is lower on the news.

U.S. weekly Unemployment Claims came in at 409k, still above 400k and the 4-week moving average now stands at 439k, slightly higher than last week’s average of 437k. The 4-week moving average needs to be below 400k on a consistent basis to be considered economically positive and give the Fed confidence that job growth is accelerating at a sustainable rate. Today at 10 am EST Existing Home Sales are reported and the Philadelphia Fed releases it’s Manufacturing Index; Existing Home Sales are expected to be at an annual rate of 5.21 million.

The Philly Fed Index is expected to be 20.2, almost 2 points better than last month’s reading.

Both numbers have good potential to move the dollar if they come in much stronger than expectations.

Thursday, May 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4325 1.4294 1.4207 1.4176 1.4089

GBP/USD 1.6371 1.6311 1.6243 1.6183 1.6114

247.0

270.3

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.3678 81.9355 81.3318 80.8995 80.2958 217.6

USD/CHD 0.8904 0.8842 0.8819 0.8758 0.8735

EUR/CHD 1.2629 1.2575 1.2540 1.2486 1.2451

177.4

187.3

EUR/JPY 117.5155 116.8760 115.5785 114.9390 113.6415

158 | P a g e

406.8

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4250 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6167 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 81.7600 81.6660 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8807 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2552 1.2487 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 116.3840 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↓ 1.3242 1.1993

159 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday May 18, 2011 British Pound Lower on Slower Economic Fears Britain’s unemployment increased by 12.4k and the release of the BOE’s minutes revealed as expected that most voting members want to keep interest rates where they are and not raise them anytime soon. This news has had a negative effect on the Pound; it is down against most currencies. Technically against the Dollar the 160 area is good support.

In the U.S. today we get the weekly crude report due out at 10:30 am EST and then we also get FOMC minutes from the last meeting due out at 2 pm EST. Japan reports their GDP at 7:30 pm EST; expectations are for a decrease of -0.5%. Along with the GDP report is the Price Index and this is expected to show a decrease of -1.9% in prices. If both of these reports come in negative as expected, it will be the second negative GDP report in a row and the sixth negative pricing report; potential recession and deflation. Not good for Japan as it tries to recover from March’s earthquake and Tsunami. The Yen would see downward pressure if these reports came in worse than expectations.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

EUR/USD 1.4350 1.4259 1.4153 1.4061 1.3956

GBP/USD 1.6296 1.6246 1.6203 1.6152 1.6109

414.3

196.3

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4235 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009 ↓ ↓ ↓ ― 1.3981

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.2750 81.0610 80.8440 80.6300 80.4130

USD/CHD 0.8993 0.8909 0.8853 0.8770 0.8714

EUR/CHD 1.2638 1.2566 1.2541 1.2470 1.2445

EUR/JPY 116.2223 115.3995 114.3983 113.5755 112.5743

90.5

292.5

202.4

383.0

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6248 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 81.7600 81.4180 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8800 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2530 1.2487 1.2400 1.1993

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

― 1.5981

↔ ↔ ↓ 1.3242 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 115.9100 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100 ↔ ↔ ↓ ― 91.2300

160 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday May 17, 2011 British CPI Higher, European Economic Sentiment Down Both the European full CPI and the Core number came in a half a percent higher than last month’s reading; 4.5% and 3.7% for the Core. Expectations were for 4.2% with a 3.4% core.

These numbers are high, especially for the core, the core has been increasing steadily from 2.7% over the past 6 months. The Pound increased on the news and has since fallen back against most currencies.

Both the German and European ZEW reports came in with lower sentiment readings. Germany with 3.1, expectations were for 4.8 and last month’s reading was 7.6. The whole European ZEW was 13.6, expectations were for 17.9 and last month was 19.7. Overall these numbers show declining business investment sentiment throughout Europe.

U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts came in less than expected with the only shining light being a revision to Housing Starts. Building Permits came in at 550k; expectations were for 590k while last month’s number was unchanged at 570k. Starts, the number of actual permits pulled to build a house, came in at 520k, 50k less than expectations and 70k lower than last month’s revised 590k. Overall this is really a weak report. In a typical recovery we should be seeing both Permits and Starts well over a million. The U.S. housing market continues to drag on the economy; however, some good does come from this weakness. With the low Dollar U.S. real estate is a global bargain.

U.S. Industrial production released this morning showed no change in production. Expectations were for 0.5% while last month’s reading was 0.8%. Capacity Utilization came in at 76.9%; expectations were for 77.7% while last month’s reading was 77.4%. These are weak numbers and will not give much support to the dollar. However, since currencies trade in pairs it is always which side of the pair is the strongest. Since all of today’s reports, European and U.S., have a weak bias, trading will be focused on technicals. The Dollar could rally early, but is overbought on a short-term basis so it should fall later in the session.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4422 1.4232 1.4149 1.3959 1.3876

GBP/USD 1.6368 1.6266 1.6206 1.6104 1.6044

573.1

340.2

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.5003 81.1695 80.7513 80.4205 80.0023 157.3

USD/CHD 0.9047 0.9001 0.8899 0.8853 0.8750

EUR/CHD 1.2727 1.2646 1.2611 1.2530 1.2495

312.1

244.2

EUR/JPY 116.2605 114.9510 114.2235 112.9140 112.1865

161 | P a g e

427.8

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/16/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4160 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6197 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 81.3300 80.8460 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

85.5200 77.9800

1.1729 0.7959

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8839 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2518 1.2487 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 114.4870 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↓ 1.3242 1.1993

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 91.2300

162 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday May 16, 2011 European Core CPI Higher The overall European inflation rate came in at an annual pace of 2.8% as expected and equivalent to last month’s reading, also 2.8%. However the core rate increased to 1.6% the highest reading in several years. While the reading is the highest in several years it is still a very low inflation rate. Over a 65 year period of time, European inflation at the consumer level has averaged over 3%.

Today’s lack of economic reports will leave trading to focus on technicals or speculating future events on old news. Two weeks ago, a report such as the European CPI core rate increasing this much, would have sent the Euro flying higher. Now, sentiment has changed and everyone is looking for an excuse to sell the Euro.

Tomorrow there are several important economic reports scheduled for Great Britain, Europe and the U.S. We will discuss the potential impact in today’s video later this afternoon.

Monday, May 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.6320 81.3010 81.0020 80.6710 80.3720

EUR/USD 1.4373 1.4317 1.4220 1.4164 1.4067

GBP/USD 1.6441 1.6358 1.6296 1.6213 1.6151

321.9

304.7

EUR/USD 1.5141 1.4939 1.4423 1.4116 1.4012 1.3906 1.3009

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6420 1.6194 1.5981 1.5343 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 81.3300 80.7410 80.1500 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9090 0.8924 0.8706 0.8550 0.7959

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3242 1.2700 1.2601 1.2487 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 116.8900 114.0570 111.9500 106.8100 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.3981

― 1.5981

132.3

85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8929 0.8878 0.8851 0.8800 0.8773

EUR/CHD 1.2652 1.2623 1.2586 1.2558 1.2521

EUR/JPY 116.5640 116.0650 115.1180 114.6190 113.6720

164.0

136.9

303.7

1.1729 0.7959

1.3242 1.1993

163 | P a g e

― 91.2300

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday May 13, 2011 Europe Reports Stronger Growth European GDP numbers were all reported substantially higher. Germany’s first quarter GDP came in at 1.5%, the highest showing since the third quarter of 2010. This was six tenths of a percent higher than expectations and substantially higher than last quarter’s reading of 0.4%.

France also reported considerably higher first quarter GDP at 1.0%, its highest reading in several years and much better than expectations. The overall Euro economy (of which Germany and France make up half) grew at a pace of 0.8% for the first quarter, this is the best showing also in a few years. Italy’s GDP barely eked out a positive number while Portugal reported yet another negative number putting its economy officially into a recession. The euro is stronger on the news and gives credence to further rate increases by the European Central Bank.

The U.S. CPI came in at expectations with a reading of 0.4% and a Core rate of 0.2%. The Core rate was one tenth higher than last month’s reading and the full number, including food and energy was one tenth lower than last month’s reading. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment is due out at 9:55 am EST and expectations are for 70.0. Last month’s reading was 69.8.

Please join in today at 1:00 pm EST for our weekly Webinar as The Currency Professor will review this week’s market activity and look forward at next week’s potential movements.

Friday, May 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4498 1.4323 1.4247 1.4072 1.3996

GBP/USD 1.6582 1.6452 1.6387 1.6257 1.6191

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.7625 81.5000 81.0545 80.7920 80.3465

USD/CHD 0.8948 0.8914 0.8848 0.8814 0.8748

EUR/CHD 1.2729 1.2643 1.2615 1.2529 1.2500

EUR/JPY 117.8045 116.3870 115.4705 114.0530 113.1365

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/12/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

527.1 EUR/USD 1.4940 1.4648 1.4518 1.4240 1.4156 1.4079 1.3981

410.1 GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6458 1.6286 1.6165 1.5935 1.4474

148.7 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.9890 80.2000 79.5600 77.9800

210.6 USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9009 0.8839 0.8585 0.8039 0.7985

239.8 EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2590 1.2517 1.2400 1.1993

490.1 EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 115.3420 115.2000 114.9400 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.3981

― 1.5935

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7985

↔ ↔ ↓ 1.3242 1.1993

↔ ↔ ↓ ― 91.2300

164 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday May 12, 2011 U.S. Economic Data Releases Mixed Retail Sales came in as expected at 0.5% but the Core number came in at 0.6% a tenth of a percent lower than expectations and two tenths lower than last month. The PPI came in at 0.8%, two tenths higher than expectations; mostly due to oil’s price increase for April - oil did not sell off until the first week of May. The Core PPI came in slightly higher than expectations at 0.3%, same as last month’s reading. Weekly Unemployment claims came in at 434k with the 4-week moving average climbing to 436k. Overall a mixed bag of economic information; however, with the current upward bias of the Dollar these reports will have a positive effect on the Dollar.

Britain’s Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production came in lower than expected although both were higher than last month. Manufacturing came in at 0.2% as expectations were for 0.3% and the prior month was unchanged from January’s figure. Industrial Production came in at 0.3%, expectations were for 0.9% and last month’s reading was -1.2%. None of these numbers are robust helping to shift the focus away from future rate increases by the BOE; the Pound is lower this morning on the news.

European Industrial Production also came in lower than expected with a negative number -0.2%; expectations were for a rise of 0.4% after last month’s reading increase of 0.6%. The Euro is lower on the news.

There is a new article posted in the Articles for Argument section entitled “The China Effect” which discusses the latest China U.S. talks. Please feel free to leave your comments or opinions.

In the Support/Resistance/Trend table that appears every day in these e-mails I want to clarify that the support and resistance levels, while many times being pierced during the session, needs to close above or below those levels to actually have meaning. Simply trading through a level is not a true breach.

Thursday, May 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

EUR/USD 1.4518 1.4480 1.4375 1.4337 1.4232

GBP/USD 1.6473 1.6421 1.6368 1.6317 1.6264

300.9

220.1

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4405 81.2380 80.6955 80.4930 79.9505 156.4

USD/CHD 0.8896 0.8856 0.8781 0.8740 0.8665

EUR/CHD 1.2832 1.2778 1.2633 1.2578 1.2433

242.6

419.6

EUR/JPY 117.8505 117.3980 116.0925 115.6400 114.3345 369.2

165 | P a g e

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4940 1.4648 1.4518 1.4197 1.4156 1.4079 1.3981

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6458 1.6355 1.6165 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 81.1470 80.2000 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9009 0.8864 0.8585 0.8039 0.7985

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2586 1.2517 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 115.2200 115.2000 114.9400 105.4100

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Reversal Target

― 1.3981

― 1.5935

85.5200 77.9800

― 0.7985

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

166 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday May 11, 2011 China’s Economic Reports Mixed China reported a whole slew of economic reports this morning. While most showed a very slight slow down the New Loans and Fixed Asset Investment numbers gained suggesting the rest of the reports may be nothing more than a one month aberration. Their economy is still too “hot”; retail sales over 17%, Industrial Production over 13% and Money Supply increasing at a 15% clip year-over-year.

The Pound is gaining ground against most currencies this morning after the Bank of England raised their inflation outlook for the next year. Their forecasts now project inflation to exceed the Bank’s target by the end of this year instead of early 2012. The pound has rallied past its first resistance level and should now find minor resistance at the 165.98 area. Past today and tomorrow the rally may be short lived as recent overall British economic data has been showing signs of weakness.

The Dollar is showing some strength against most currencies this morning. After last week’s large move up by the Dollar, it should have pulled back slightly this week. Sentiment may be changing about the Dollar. A few days does not make a trend, but the consistent strength does show resilience.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4540 1.4450 1.4352 1.4262 1.4164

GBP/USD 1.6502 1.6462 1.6366 1.6325 1.6229

394.2

286.4

EUR/USD 1.4940 1.4940 1.4646 1.4409 1.4307 1.4220 1.3981

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/10/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.0433 80.5955 80.3853 79.9375 79.7273

USD/CHD 0.8812 0.8760 0.8734 0.8682 0.8656

EUR/CHD 1.2682 1.2594 1.2539 1.2451 1.2396

EUR/JPY 116.9378 115.9635 115.4898 114.5155 114.0418

138.2

164.4

300.5

304.1

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6458 1.6369 1.6165 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.8700 80.2000 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9009 0.8796 0.8585 0.8039 0.7985

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2677 1.2517 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 116.5290 115.2000 114.9400 105.4100

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4220

― 1.5935

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ ― 0.7985

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

167 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday May 10, 2011 European Economic Lower Than Expected The Swiss CPI came in at 0.1%; expectations were for 0.5% after last month’s 0.6% reading.

This is currently weighting on the Swissy and does not speak well for future rate increases or sustained Franc appreciation. French Industrial Production came in with a negative -0.9%; expectations and last month’s reading were a positive 0.5%. France is the second largest producer in the European Union so, this kind of economic data does not support future rate increases.

Technically, the Dollar is overbought on a temporary basis. The Euro needs to rally before it can go lower and the Pound will continue to sell off until its first support level is reached. Today’s trading will be very much technically based as very little economic news is scheduled. European Union news about the numerous debt issues may come at any time and move the markets.

Particular attention will need to be paid to the Euro’s technicals.

Join us in the Live Trading Room for updates throughout the day.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4672 1.4479 1.4393 1.4199 1.4113

GBP/USD 1.6498 1.6424 1.6389 1.6315 1.6280

587.4

228.9

EUR/USD 1.4940 1.4940 1.4646 1.4356 1.4307 1.4220 1.3981

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6458 1.6394 1.6165 1.5935 1.4474

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Reversal Target

― 1.4220

― 1.5935

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.3248 80.9845 80.5918 80.2515 79.8588 153.9 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.2590 80.2000 79.5600 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓ 85.5200 77.9800

USD/CHD 0.8876 0.8833 0.8754 0.8712 0.8633

EUR/CHD 1.2797 1.2675 1.2625 1.2503 1.2453

255.4

361.6

EUR/JPY 118.3953 116.8185 116.0073 114.4305 113.6193 501.5

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9009 0.8720 0.8585 0.8039 0.7985

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2522 1.2517 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 115.2380 115.2000 114.9400 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 0.7985

1.3242 1.1993

― 91.2300

168 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday May 9, 2011 Lack of Economic News Currencies Trade On Technicals After Friday’s Dollar follow through rise, the lows established last Wednesday and Thursday will stay as lows for a long time. Those levels will be tested in the near future but technically will hold. Today the Euro did rally in Asian and early European trading to about half of Friday’s trading range; it has since falling back and seems to lack support for any sustained rallies.

While most of the Dollar’s follow through Friday was concentrated in the Euro other currencies also lost ground to the Dollar as potential reversal points were hit. Most notably the Australian Dollar above the 110 level and the Swiss Franc below 8600; these trading points will hold for a long time. They will be tested several more times over the coming months and possibly exceeded only as stops are hit, but they will not be exceeded in any meaningful way.

I have added key reversal points and target points for each of the pairs below. These points are either price points that we can expect a trend reversal or a target point; either short or long-term.

Monday, May 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.5011 1.4735 1.4622 1.4346 1.4233

GBP/USD 1.6605 1.6481 1.6419 1.6296 1.6234

817.1

389.5

EUR/USD 1.4940 1.4940 1.4646 1.4311 1.4307 1.4220 1.3981

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend Reversal Target

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.3450 80.8770 80.2180 79.7500 79.0910

USD/CHD 0.8822 0.8776 0.8666 0.8621 0.8510

EUR/CHD 1.2847 1.2734 1.2681 1.2568 1.2515

236.7

327.2

349.0

763.6

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6458 1.6364 1.6165 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 82.2700 80.6030 80.2000 79.5600 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9773 0.9009 0.8778 0.8585 0.8039 0.7985

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2579 1.2517 1.2400 1.1993

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 115.3880 115.2000 114.9400 105.4100

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

― 1.4220

― 1.5935

85.5200 77.9800

↓ ↓ ↓ ― 0.7985

1.3242 1.1993

EUR/JPY 121.0135 118.6170 117.3775 114.9810 113.7415

― 91.2300

169 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday May 6, 2011 U.S. Unemployment Climbs, Payrolls Increase U.S. employment data released this morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows an increase of non-farm payrolls at 244k, much higher than the expected number of 185k.

Unemployment did rise to 9.0%, expectations were for 8.8%; same as last month. This sends mixed signals as ADP’s numbers on Wednesday showed a decrease of non-farm payrolls and in this report by the government the unemployment rate increased while payrolls increased. After these numbers are digested by the markets the impact on the dollar should be positive.

Britain’s Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers came in slightly higher than expected. The prices manufactures pay increased 2.6% as opposed to the prices manufactures charge increased 0.8%.

This means that producers have been paying more but not passing on all the increased costs to their customers. While these numbers are higher they show manufacturers inability to raise pricing thus keeping consumer prices from rising. This type of situation impacts company earnings as company’s absorbed cost increases which decreases net income.

Germany’s Industrial Production came in at 0.7%, a tenth more than expectations and less than the 1.7% reported for last month. This is the 3rd positive monthly number for German Industrial Production in a row; prior months were negative.

After yesterday’s large Euro sell off and Dollar rally the EUR/USD will need to show continued sell off today and/or have a large sell off again in Monday’s session or the Euro will continue its climb higher.

Friday, May 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.5007 1.4910 1.4843 1.4746 1.4678

GBP/USD 1.6623 1.6552 1.6502 1.6430 1.6380

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4765 81.0110 80.7185 80.2530 79.9605

USD/CHD 0.8702 0.8658 0.8604 0.8560 0.8506

EUR/CHD 1.2873 1.2818 1.2774 1.2719 1.2675

EUR/JPY 121.3640 120.3490 119.7990 118.7840 118.2340

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

345.9 EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.4898 1.4541 1.4532 1.4243 1.3981

255.2 GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6745 1.6444 1.6389 1.6229 1.5935 1.4474

159.2 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 84.5000 80.3230 80.2400 80.2400 77.9800

205.2 USD/CHD 1.1729 1.0004 0.9009 0.8698 0.8596 0.8039 0.8013

207.7 EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2651 1.2421 1.2400 1.2005

328.7 EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 116.8030 115.5500 115.5500 105.4100

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

170 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday May 5, 2011 European Rates Unchanged The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 1.25%. Future rate raises will now be scrutinized by the language of each ECB Member’s speeches. The next rate increase will need to come at the next meeting or speculation for further rate increases will wane.

German Factory Orders for March dropped 4.0% and February’s number was revised lower by a 0.5%. This is normally a volatile number; however, over the last 6 months it has had a slightly upward bias.

Britain’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 54.3; expectations were for a number of 55.8 after last month’s reading of 57.1. Over the last six months this number has been fairly steady around 54 with two notable exceptions, December of 2010 when the number came in below the 50 mark at 49.7 and then last month were the number came in at 57.1. On an overall basis this shows steady but slow growth. The Bank of England (BOE) also did not raise rates today, so Britain’s interest rates remain at 0.5%.

Thursday, May 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4957 1.4889 1.4821 1.4753 1.4686

GBP/USD 1.6718 1.6579 1.6521 1.6382 1.6324

284.5

414.1

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4828 1.4532 1.4079 1.3981 ↑ ↑ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.5430 81.2480 80.9690 80.6740 80.3950

USD/CHD 0.8699 0.8649 0.8622 0.8572 0.8544

EUR/CHD 1.2858 1.2803 1.2783 1.2729 1.2709

120.5

163.0

156.2

289.0

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6876 1.6876 1.6491 1.6444 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 84.5000 80.6290 80.2400 80.2400 77.9800

USD/CHD 1.1729 1.0004 0.9009 0.8609 0.8596 0.8039 0.8013

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2769 1.2729 1.2400 1.2005

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 119.5680 119.0600 115.5500 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

EUR/JPY 121.3113 120.6735 119.9353 119.2975 118.5593

↔ ↔ ↓

171 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday May 4, 2011 U.S.; ADP Employment Much Lower Than Expectations ADP, the employment processing company, reported this morning that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased only 179k; expectations were for 201k after last month’s increase of 201k. While the report did not meet expectations it does show an increase keeping in line with numbers over the last 4 months and better than the negative numbers from 7 to 12 month s ago. It would be better if the increases were above 400k on a monthly basis; 400k would be a good expansionary number coming out of a recession. The Dollar sold off on the news and may continue making new lows as the day progresses.

British home prices declined 0.2% last month after positive showings the last two months.

Additionally, Net Lending was lower at £500 million. Because of this news the pound is making lows against the Euro not seen in a year and as an index against 10 major currencies the Pound is touching lows not seen since 1975.

European Retail Sales dropped a full percent last month, expectations were for a 0.2% increase after last month’s 0.3% increase; there have been two increases for the last 6 months. These are inflation adjusted numbers so, the real amount of sales has declined over the last 6 months.

Tomorrow the ECB will provide yet another interest rate decision and give an indication for future rate increases.

Wednesday, May 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/3/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4966 1.4892 1.4827 1.4753 1.4687

GBP/USD 1.6769 1.6699 1.6667 1.6597 1.6565

292.9

214.0

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4821 1.4532 1.4079 1.3981

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6876 1.6876 1.6481 1.6444 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.9865 81.5970 81.2945 80.9050 80.6025 145.3 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 84.5000 80.9610 80.2400 80.2400 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8724 0.8683 0.8653 0.8611 0.8582

EUR/CHD 1.2910 1.2860 1.2829 1.2779 1.2749

EUR/JPY 121.4590 120.9150 120.4800 119.9360 119.5010

149.7

169.9

205.6

USD/CHD 1.1729 1.0004 0.9009 0.8611 0.8596 0.8039 0.8013

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2767 1.2729 1.2400 1.2005

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 119.9840 119.0600 115.5500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

172 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday May 3, 2011 Britain’s Rate Increase Hopes Dashed Britain’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.6; expectations were for 57.0 after last month’s 56.7 showing. This is considerably weaker than expectations and is now showing a trend of lower reports every month thus dashing hopes of a British rate increase. The Pound sold off quickly on the report and is now down 180 pips, very close to support.

This week there are only a few economic reports remaining that can move the markets so trading will turn to technicals. Wednesday, in the U.S., ADP provides it’s employment report which usually gives an indication to the Government’s employment’s report due out Friday.

The U.S. Dollar is very oversold and anything could trigger a technical rebound, especially against the Euro, Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar.

Tuesday, May 03, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 5/2/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4902 1.4851 1.4827 1.4776 1.4751

GBP/USD 1.6787 1.6755 1.6689 1.6657 1.6591

158.6

206.4

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4822 1.4532 1.4079 1.3981

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6876 1.6876 1.6647 1.6444 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.8343 81.4175 81.2263 80.8095 80.6183 127.7 USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 84.5000 81.2540 80.2400 80.2400 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8786 0.8704 0.8664 0.8582 0.8542

EUR/CHD 1.2997 1.2885 1.2846 1.2733 1.2694

EUR/JPY 121.4728 120.7365 120.3908 119.6545 119.3088

256.0

318.2

227.2

USD/CHD 1.1729 1.0004 0.9009 0.8647 0.8596 0.8039 0.8013

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2820 1.2729 1.2400 1.2005

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 120.4220 119.0600 115.5500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

173 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday May 2, 2011 Dollar Finishes April at Lowest level in 33 Months Persistent economic weakness and lose monetary policy continues to keep downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, stretching it like a rubber band. In the last couple of months the Dollar has made new multi-year or all time lows against the Yen, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar and a slew of other currencies. Technically, to finish the cycle, the Euro will also have to make new highs thrusting it above the 160/Dollar highs from 2008.

Swiss Retail Sales came in at -0.2%, the third negative number in the last 4 months. While this can be a volatile number, 3 out of the last 4 numbers being negative does not support stronger growth, higher interest rates and a strong Swiss Franc. ZEW reports the last few months have also been negative, with the exception of last month’s report. With negative economic numbers being reported and ZEW expectations less than robust, Europe’s darling money center may be over priced.

Today’s trading will be light absent any notable economic news and bank holidays in several European countries. Look for short corrections in EUR/USD and USD/CHF. Be sure to read the new posted Article for Argument, Pricing Bubble, Not Inflation!, which discusses the rise in commodities prices as a “Pricing Bubble” just like the “Dotcom” or real estate booms and not inflation.

Monday, May 02, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4935 1.4879 1.4825 1.4768 1.4714

GBP/USD 1.6784 1.6698 1.6660 1.6574 1.6536

232.1

260.6

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4802 1.4532 1.4079 1.3981

GBP/USD 1.7041 1.6876 1.6876 1.6704 1.6444 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.5603 81.9785 81.6863 81.1045 80.8123 183.5

USD/JPY 85.5200 85.5200 84.5000 81.1340 80.2400 80.2400 77.9800 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8799 0.8769 0.8728 0.8699 0.8658

EUR/CHD 1.2999 1.2978 1.2943 1.2922 1.2887

EUR/JPY 122.4250 121.5880 120.9870 120.1500 119.5490

148.1

117.4

USD/CHD 1.1729 1.0004 0.9009 0.8646 0.8596 0.8039 0.8013

EUR/CHD 1.3242 1.3202 1.2972 1.2807 1.2729 1.2400 1.2005

EUR/JPY 127.9100 123.3200 121.8200 120.1630 119.0600 115.5500 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

302.0

174 | P a g e

April 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday April 29, 2011 Euro Gains With Mixed Reports The Euro is up in the Asian and European sessions as a whole slew of economic reports provide conflicting strength and weakness throughout Europe. Inflation as measured by the Flash yearover-year CPI came in at 2.8% a tenth of a percent higher than expectations and last month’s reading; more than likely due to the increase in fuel costs. Germany’s Retail Sales hits a 6 month low as March’s report drops 2.1%. And, the worst unemployment reading for Europe shows up in Spain with 21.3% of the working population unemployed. All of Europe’s Unemployment Rate still stands at 9.9%. If the Euro closes at these levels against the Dollar it will be the 9th up day; statistically there is almost a 100% chance of a reversal.

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer came in at 2.29 and has been creeping higher every month. This culminates several reports to give a direction for the previous 6 months of economic activity. The Swiss Franc is up against most currencies and hitting new all time highs against the Dollar.

In the U.S. this morning the core PCE Price Index came in as expected at 0.1%, a tenth of a percent lower than last month. This continues to show benign inflation outside of food and energy costs. Just before 10 am EST we will get the Chicago Purchasing manager’s report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and expected Inflation reading. The Dollar is extremely oversold and is due for at least a bounce; any news can trigger that move. Watch 10 minute and 30 minute charts for early signs of the reversal.

Friday, April 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4904 1.4852 1.4742 1.4690 1.4580

GBP/USD 1.6780 1.6723 1.6578 1.6521 1.6377

340.6

424.0

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4823 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6636 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.6510 83.0060 82.1310 81.4860 80.6110 319.2 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 81.5430 80.9300 80.2400 78.2300 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8916 0.8836 0.8752 0.8672 0.8588

EUR/CHD 1.3077 1.3027 1.2889 1.2839 1.2700

EUR/JPY 123.0988 122.5425 120.9858 120.4295 118.8728

344.6

395.2

443.7

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8734 0.8668 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2950 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 120.8680 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

175 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday April 28, 2011 U.S. GDP Lower GDP for the first quarter of this year came in at 1.8%, that is lower than the expected 1.9% and much lower than the fourth quarter’s increase of 3.2%. The GDP price index, a closely watched inflation number, came in at 1.9%; expectations were for 2.2%. Additionally, weekly unemployment claims came in over 400k at 429k, considerably higher than the expectations of 392k. These reports are not encouraging for the Dollar, although much of the negativity may already be built in. Now that all the bad news is out, the Dollar may rally by the end of the session.

There were a whole slew of economic reports out of Japan this morning none of which showed any economic strength. The BOJ, in their meeting statement, said that the country is probably in a recession. The earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown is now showing up in the economic numbers. The big question is when will the re-building start and what effects will it have on the economy? The number of unemployed people in Germany declined by 37,000 last month, expectations were for a decline of 33,000, providing continued strength to the European economy; last month there was a decline of 55,000.

Thursday, April 28, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/27/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4774 1.4729 1.4611 1.4565 1.4447

GBP/USD 1.6583 1.6534 1.6482 1.6433 1.6381

342.9

212.7

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4771 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383 ↑ ↑ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.1458 81.8395 81.6608 81.3545 81.1758

USD/CHD 0.8881 0.8791 0.8761 0.8671 0.8641

EUR/CHD 1.2903 1.2836 1.2813 1.2747 1.2724

EUR/JPY 120.7418 120.2055 119.3478 118.8115 117.9538

101.9

251.2

187.1

292.7

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6623 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 82.2580 80.9300 80.2400 78.2300

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8755 0.8668 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2934 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 121.4870 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

176 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday April 27, 2011 U.S. Durable Goods Orders Higher As they say the devil is in the details. Durable goods came in higher at 2.5%, 0.4% higher than expectations and much higher than the revised 0.7% from last month. The Core came in higher at 1.3% although it was lower than expectations of 1.7%. The interesting part of both sections of the report is that every month for the last 4 months revisions have been higher and in some months significantly higher. Durable Goods is usually a very volatile number and looking at just one month can be dangerous. Over this 4 month time period numbers have gone from negative to very positive. While not robust both parts of the report shows good, positive growth.

European economic reports today were less than stellar. Germany’s preliminary CPI came in as expected at 0.2%. Britain’s GDP came in as expected at 0.5%; over the last 4 quarters GDP has totaled an increase of 2.5%. While the services sector of the GDP report showed strong growth, one report does not make a trend. The Pound is up against most currencies because this report was higher than the negative 0.5% number of from last quarter.

Trading today will be volatile as all eyes will be on the Fed’s statements to be released at 12:30 pm EST. In addition to the usual prepared statement, Ben Bernanke will be holding a press conference at 2:15 pm EST. This is the first ever for Fed after an FOMC meeting. The Dollar has been down the last 6 days and is extremely oversold. We could have a significant bounce after the press release.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/26/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4678 1.4629 1.4577 1.4527 1.4475

GBP/USD 1.6584 1.6533 1.6500 1.6448 1.6415

213.2

177.7

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4647 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6484 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.6793 82.1855 81.9233 81.4295 81.1673 158.8 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 81.5970 80.9300 80.2400 78.2300 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8916 0.8859 0.8815 0.8758 0.8713

EUR/CHD 1.2947 1.2890 1.2855 1.2798 1.2763

EUR/JPY 120.3698 119.7535 119.4048 118.7885 118.4398

213.2

193.2

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8731 0.8668 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2791 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 119.5090 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

202.7

177 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday April 26, 2011 Euro Strength Dollar Weakness The Dollar continues to be under downward pressure as anticipation of the Fed’s 2 day meeting starting today may result in a continued accommodative monetary stance. Speculation now is flying suggesting that the Fed will make statements that interest rates will continue at record lows for the foreseeable future. The Dollar continues to make new multi-year lows against most major currencies. In the short-term it is very oversold. There is now too much negative speculation running as to what the Fed is going to do and not do.

In addition to tomorrows Fed meeting completion, Thursday the U.S. reports 1st quarter GDP. So, the second half of this week could see a lot of volatility. Today, at 10 am EST, we get the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence report. Expectations are for a reading of 64.4 while most eyes will be on the revision for last period as revisions from the last 3 reports showed an increased number.

Today’s trading may be muted as many will not want to take large positions ahead of such unknowns for Wednesday and Thursday. The Dollar is poised to snap higher if the all the news is better than expectations.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4613 1.4585 1.4559 1.4531 1.4505

GBP/USD 1.6589 1.6543 1.6522 1.6477 1.6455

113.8

140.1

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4578 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6492 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.2973 82.0565 81.8573 81.6165 81.4173 92.4 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 81.8070 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.8890 0.8872 0.8858 0.8839 0.8825

EUR/CHD 1.2953 1.2925 1.2897 1.2868 1.2841

EUR/JPY 120.1053 119.6195 119.2153 118.7295 118.3253

67.8

118.2

186.9

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8809 0.8770 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2844 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 119.2680 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

178 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday April 25, 2011 Slow Trading Day Again Today European banks are again closed today so, trading will be light in volume. Overnight trading has been concentrated in broad Dollar selling. Technically, the Dollar is oversold on a short term basis and needs a rally. Longer-term the dollar is close to its lows from 3 years ago and those lows should give support and potentially reverse the downward trend.

U.S. New Home sales are due out at 10 am EST. Expectations are for an annual number of 280,000 after last month’s 250,000. February’s number was revised higher from 284k to 301k so everyone will be watching revisions to March’s 250k low number in addition to April’s number.

Monday, April 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4706 1.4646 1.4487 1.4427 1.4267

GBP/USD 1.6529 1.6515 1.6411 1.6397 1.6293

460.5

247.8

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4558 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383 ↑ ↑ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.2830 82.6340 82.4420 81.7930 81.6010

USD/CHD 0.9026 0.8932 0.8903 0.8809 0.8780

EUR/CHD 1.2999 1.2940 1.2913 1.2854 1.2828

EUR/JPY 121.5393 120.5765 119.4183 118.4555 117.2973

176.6

258.5

180.0

445.4

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6502 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 81.8400 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8857 0.8808 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2902 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 119.2000 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

179 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday April 22, 2011 Holiday Slow Trade Today There are no scheduled reports today and banks are closed in Europe for the Good Friday holiday. Trading will be thin and all based on technicals. Because of the holiday the Dollar will have an upward bias. The real test will be in Monday’s session if the Euro can show considerable strength and close above yesterday’s high of 1.4648. If it cannot produce that kind of strength then, it will probably fall back in Tuesday’s session and yesterday’s high may stand for a long time. Since the Euro did not close yesterday’s session on or near its highs means there is very little conviction in it’s latest rally.

The Dollar is hitting 3 year lows and is due for a rally. Yesterday, against the Swiss Franc, it did trade down to a major support trendline and then rally back to close only a fee pips lower than Wednesday’s close. Technically this is a positive sign for the dollar.

Today will be a difficult day to trade. Thin volume and no real direction, it is best to stay out of trading on days like today.

180 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday April 21, 2011 U.S. Dollar Index Makes Fresh 3-Year Lows The Dollar is broadly lower against the major currencies. The Euro, Pound and Swiss all have gained considerably against the dollar creating new short-term trends. Outside of Europe the Dollar is lower against the Yen and Aussy albeit with less vigor. The U.S. Dollar Index has now entered an area of longer term support between 7150 and 7400; its decline should stall in this area.

British Retail Sales came in at 0.2%, considerably higher than the expected -0.5%. Last month’s number was revised slightly lower to 0.9% from 0.8%. The Pound is up 150 pressing past shortterm resistance.

None of the news out of Europe was that robust, but tomorrow, Friday, is a bank holiday in Europe so traders may be positioning for a long weekend. Look for continued support of European currencies and U.S. Dollar selling based on intraday technicals.

Thursday, April 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4451 1.4404 1.4305 1.4257 1.4158

GBP/USD 1.6406 1.6370 1.6299 1.6263 1.6192

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.9898 82.7855 82.5488 82.3445 82.1078

USD/CHD 0.9050 0.9027 0.8986 0.8962 0.8921

EUR/CHD 1.3042 1.2984 1.2856 1.2798 1.2671

EUR/JPY 119.3838 118.9965 118.0368 117.6495 116.6898

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/20/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

308.5 EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5144 1.5141 1.4521 1.4205 1.4079 1.3383

224.5 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6874 1.6400 1.5936 1.5935 1.4474

92.6 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 82.5450 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300

136.1 USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8881 0.8808 0.8070 0.8041

390.2 EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2898 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

282.9 EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 119.8710 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

181 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday April 20, 2011 Euro Makes New 15-Month High Against U.S. Dollar Shrugging off debt fears the Euro has once again bounced back recouping it’s large one day slide and then some, making new 15 month highs against the Dollar. Many reasons are flying around as to give credence to the currency’s strength. However, technically it is a market that is trading more like a commodity at the top of its cycle. Today’s session will need to close at or above those new 15-month highs and then tomorrow it will need to have another very large up day to garner renewed upward momentum.

U.S. Existing Home Sales are due out today at 10 am EST. Expectations are for an annual rate of 5.02 million units after last month’s dismal 4.88 million. Everyone will be looking for revisions to last month’s number as well as prices paid in the latest report.

The U.S. Dollar index is now at 74.35 equaling it’s lows made in November 2009. The Dollar may find support in this area or at least a flourish of renewed buying.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/19/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4521 1.4359 1.4258 1.4096 1.3994

GBP/USD 1.6419 1.6350 1.6257 1.6188 1.6095

552.7

340.2

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.4519 1.4419 1.4331 1.4157 1.3680 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6316 1.5936 1.5300 1.4474

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.6920 83.0520 82.6150 81.9750 81.5380 226.2 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 82.5600 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300 ↔ ↔ ↓

USD/CHD 0.9048 0.9004 0.8954 0.8910 0.8860

EUR/CHD 1.2935 1.2825 1.2777 1.2667 1.2619

EUR/JPY 121.4195 119.1930 117.8265 115.6000 114.2335

198.2

331.4

754.5

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8995 0.8822 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2891 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 118.3190 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

182 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday April 19, 2011 European PMIs Higher Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices in Germany and France as well as the Euro Zone as a whole came in higher than expectations. The Services PMI in Germany and the Euro Zone were slightly weaker than expectations. Overall the reports show consistent strength with some growth in the month-over-month reports for the past quarter. The Euro is up about 70 pips against the Dollar but, the up move is probably due more to yesterday’s 200 pip decline than to the reports.

The Canadian came in considerably higher than expected. The overall number was expected to be 0.7% and came in at 1.1% after last month’s 0.3% increase. The core number showed greater strength with an increase of 0.7%; expectations were for an increase of 0.3% after last month’s 0.2% increase. While one month does not make a trend it is a little concerning as the U.S. and Canada are large trading partners and the U.S. CPI numbers last week were almost non-existent; the U.S. core number came in at 0.1%.

U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts for March were released this morning at 8:30 am EST and the numbers were better than expected. While not hugely robust, they did not decline; which, as of late has really been a plus. Permits came in at 594,000, up 11% over last month’s number. Starts rose 7% to 550,000 and February’s number was revised higher to 512,000 from 479,000 originally reported. While not anything close to 2006 levels the last few reports are starting to show some stability in the housing market. Of course, there have been many times over the past 5 years this thought has been presented only to be dashed in a couple of months.

This report should give strength to the Dollar. Look to buy dollars and sell Euros on any Dollar weakness.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4547 1.4478 1.4434 1.4366 1.4322

GBP/USD 1.6407 1.6359 1.6325 1.6278 1.6244

Pivot Points USD/JPY 84.0675 83.5370 83.2445 82.7140 82.4215

USD/CHD 0.8973 0.8945 0.8929 0.8901 0.8886

EUR/CHD 1.2972 1.2913 1.2889 1.2829 1.2805

EUR/JPY 122.0200 120.7840 120.2310 118.9950 118.4420

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

236.3 EUR/USD 1.6038 1.4519 1.4419 1.4227 1.4157 1.3680 1.3383

170.9 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6269 1.5936 1.5300 1.4474

172.8 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 82.5100 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300

91.6 USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8957 0.8822 0.8070 0.8041

175.4 EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2746 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

375.7 EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 117.3680 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

↔ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

183 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday April 18, 2011 Greek Debt Yet Again Front & Center Rumors and facts hitting news wires that Greece asked to have debt restructured and consequently denied along with German officials stating that Greece will not make it through the summer without restructuring. To add insult to injury comments by ECB officials are leading the markets to believe rates will go up another 50 basis points before the end of the year; this would not help to restructure debt of any European nation. The Euro is down broadly across the board and down almost 150 pips against the Dollar.

China’s Central bank stated Sunday it would yet again raise it’s banking reserve requirement after Friday’s economic reports showed increased production and inflation. China, now the world’s second largest economy, would indeed have an impact on the rest of the world if it slows down and slows down too quickly.

No real economic news is scheduled for today that can impact the markets; tomorrow we get Purchasing Manager reports from China, Germany and France. Tomorrow we will also see the dreaded Building Permits and Housing Starts for the U.S. Today’s trading will be subject to rumors and official’s comments. The Euro, down 150 pips against the Dollar, is subject to technical buying as it is oversold on a short-term basis. If it does close in this area it will be below it’s daily trendline support; expect further declines.

A new article, High Debt, High Unemployment, Low Growth ..... Austerity and Higher Interest Rates?, has been posted in Articles for Argument please feel free to read it and make comments.

Monday, April 18, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4611 1.4560 1.4462 1.4411 1.4314

GBP/USD 1.6462 1.6412 1.6332 1.6282 1.6202

Pivot Points USD/JPY 84.4310 83.9730 83.4590 83.0010 82.4870 204.1

USD/CHD 0.9001 0.8961 0.8928 0.8887 0.8854 154.8

EUR/CHD 1.3028 1.2985 1.2914 1.2871 1.2801 238.3

EUR/JPY 122.7253 122.0015 120.6283 119.9045 118.5313

312.5

273.2

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4579 1.4428 1.4316 1.4243 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6324 1.5936 1.5300 1.4474

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.5200 83.1060 81.6100 80.2400 78.2300

USD/CHD 1.1729 0.9731 0.9339 0.8919 0.8822 0.8070 0.8041

EUR/CHD 1.3834 1.3242 1.3184 1.2874 1.2705 1.2400 1.2054

EUR/JPY 134.5600 127.9100 123.3200 119.9130 115.6600 108.5000 105.4100

440.4

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

184 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday April 15, 2011 European CPI Higher Than Expectations The European CPI was reported 1/10th of a percent higher than expectations at 2.7%, a 29 month high. Core CPI also rose by 1.3%, estimates were for 1.1% after last month’s report of a 1.0% increase. Just taking a step back and looking at the numbers in a relative perspective, 2.7% and 1.3% are both extremely low in historical terms.

China reported it’s CPI at 5.4% and a PPI at 7.3%. Chinese retail sales jumped almost 2% from last month to 17.4%, higher than the expected 16.5%. Chinese industrial production also increased to 14.8% from 14.1%. All of these numbers are higher than expectations and shows China is still very “hot”, economically.

Both the Dollar and Euro continue to lose ground against the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen in today’s session. Look for small rallies to sell; especially with regard to the Swissy. There is a very good and clear downtrend against the Swissy for both currencies and money can be made on an intraday basis.

The U.S. CPI came in as expected at 0.5% while the core dropped to 0.1%; 0.1% lower than expectations and 0.1% lower than last month’s report.

Friday, April 15, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4560 1.4494 1.4453 1.4387 1.4347

GBP/USD 1.6340 1.6301 1.6269 1.6229 1.6197

Pivot Points USD/JPY 84.6560 84.2980 83.8970 83.5390 83.1380

USD/CHD 0.9021 0.8991 0.8959 0.8928 0.8897

EUR/CHD 1.3087 1.3004 1.2960 1.2877 1.2833

EUR/JPY 122.7215 121.8910 121.3235 120.4930 119.9255

224.1

151.0

159.4

131.0

266.3

293.6

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4820 1.4486 1.4221 1.4020 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6349 1.5936 1.5909 1.4738

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 83.4860 83.2800 81.3700 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1122 0.9581 0.9339 0.8924 0.8835 0.8751 0.7928

EUR/CHD 1.3235 1.3234 1.3176 1.2928 1.2787 1.2737 1.2350

EUR/JPY 130.7700 127.8900 125.4400 120.9530 115.6600 114.3200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

185 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday April 14, 2011 U.S. PPI Lower than Expected Core Higher The U.S. Producer Price Index came in this morning at 0.7%; lower than the expected 1.1% and much less than last month’s 1.6%. The core rate, most watched by the FED, came in at 0.3%; this is higher than the expected 0.2%. With the core rate ticking up this should give some support to the dollar. However, the overall number did decrease a lot and this could cause further Dollar selling. The Dollar is up slightly against most currencies just after the report.

Chinese Fx Reserves are now over $3 trillion (U.S.). This $200 billion increase along with an increased trade deficit and larger M-2 money supply (reported today at a 16.6% year-over-year increase) is very inflationary. If Chinese export prices rise then the whole World’s pricing will increase as everyone relies on Chinese cheap products.

Swiss ZEW expectations came in at 8.8, the first positive reading in 8 months. This shows that companies in Switzerland have more confidence in the economy and business then they have had for the past eight months. The Swiss Franc is up against the Dollar and the Euro.

Technically the Euro is looking weaker and with the recent strength of the Swiss there are two markets with good intraday trading opportunities; the USD/CHF and the EUR/CHF. Look for small rallies to sell.

Thursday, April 14, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/13/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4605 1.4549 1.4463 1.4407 1.4321

GBP/USD 1.6392 1.6315 1.6271 1.6195 1.6150

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.1558 84.2175 83.8378 82.8995 82.5198

USD/CHD 0.9119 0.9032 0.8986 0.8899 0.8853

EUR/CHD 1.3141 1.3051 1.3005 1.2915 1.2869

EUR/JPY 123.3750 122.1070 121.1260 119.8580 118.8770

297.6

253.7

276.8

278.9

285.6

472.3

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4820 1.4440 1.4221 1.4020 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6265 1.5936 1.5909 1.4738

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 83.9250 83.2800 81.3700 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1122 0.9581 0.9339 0.8960 0.8835 0.8751 0.7928

EUR/CHD 1.3235 1.3234 1.3176 1.2940 1.2787 1.2737 1.2350

EUR/JPY 130.7700 127.8900 125.4400 121.2030 115.6600 114.3200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↑ ↔ ↓

186 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday April 13, 2011 European Industrial Production Less Than Expected Industrial Production for the Euro Zone came in at 0.4% after expectations of 0.8%. This is still a respectable number as last month’s number was revised slightly lower to 0.2% after being originally reported at 0.3%. The Swiss PPI came in as expected at 0.4% after last month’s reading of 0.2%. The British employment numbers were a little better than expected with the exception of hourly earnings which decreased on a quarterly basis to 2.0% from last report’s 2.3%. Overall, no real exciting news and the European currencies are showing little movement after yesterday’s active day (with the exception of against the Yen which is losing ground to all currencies). The Euro is up slightly against the Dollar and mixed against everything else. The Pound is up slightly against the Dollar and the Swissy is mixed.

U.S. Retail Sales came in at 0.4% after expectations of 0.6%; last month’s 0.1% increase was unrevised. The U.S. Beige Book is due out at 2 pm EST. If it shows a pickup in economic activity this would give a boost to the beaten up Dollar.

The Yen is being hammered today against most currencies and has very little technical support.

The Euro is showing good strength but is overbought against the Dollar on a short term basis.

The Dollar is weak across the board after some strength yesterday. Look for short term rallies in the Dollar Swiss for shorting opportunities.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4504 1.4462 1.4441 1.4400 1.4379

GBP/USD 1.6469 1.6400 1.6356 1.6287 1.6243

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.3940 84.9940 84.7500 84.3500 84.1060

USD/CHD 0.9126 0.9092 0.9068 0.9034 0.9010

EUR/CHD 1.3197 1.3131 1.3099 1.3033 1.3002

EUR/JPY 123.7413 122.8585 122.4333 121.5505 121.1253

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/12/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

131.5 EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4820 1.4478 1.4221 1.4020 1.3383

236.7 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6255 1.5936 1.5909 1.4738

135.2 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 83.5540 83.2800 81.3700 76.4000

121.8 USD/CHD 1.1122 0.9581 0.9339 0.8966 0.8835 0.8751 0.7928

205.2 EUR/CHD 1.3235 1.3234 1.3176 1.2983 1.2787 1.2737 1.2350

274.7 EUR/JPY 130.7700 127.8900 125.4400 120.9750 115.6600 114.3200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

187 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday April 12, 2011 ZEW Reports Less Than Expected Both Germany and the EC’s ZEW reports came in less than expected. These reports measure the sentiment of investors and are considered a leading economic indicator. Germany’s report came in at 7.6 after expectations of 11.7 and; last month’s report of 14.1 (anything over 0.0 is considered positive below negative). Europe’s ZEW came in at 19.7 after expectations of 28.8 and last month’s reading of 31.0. After the Euro Zone’s latest rate rise this is not good news as it indicates expectations of a slower economy. The Euro is now higher after being lower in the Asian session.

British inflation numbers all came in below expectations most notably their housing prices, DCLG, it was almost half of expectations. Pound is lower but did recover some of it’s earlier losses from the session.

CPI y/y - Actual 4.00%, Expected 4.40%, Last Month 4.40% RPI y/y - Actual 5.30%, Expected 5.50%, Last Month 5.50% Core CPI y/y - Actual 3.20%, Expected 3.40%, Last Month 3.40% DCLG HPI y/y - Actual 0.70%, Expected 1.30%, Last Month 0.50% Tuesday, April 12, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4623 1.4565 1.4428 1.4369 1.4232

GBP/USD 1.6487 1.6434 1.6374 1.6321 1.6261

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.6408 85.1865 84.9298 84.4755 84.2188

USD/CHD 0.9199 0.9125 0.9091 0.9016 0.8982

EUR/CHD 1.3226 1.3172 1.3133 1.3079 1.3040

EUR/JPY 124.2168 123.6055 122.4658 121.8545 120.7148

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

411.2 EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4820 1.4431 1.4221 1.4020 1.3383

237.5 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6343 1.5936 1.5909 1.4738

149.3 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 84.6590 83.5700 81.3700 76.4000

228.3 USD/CHD 1.1122 0.9581 0.9339 0.9063 0.8964 0.8751 0.7928

195.7 EUR/CHD 1.3235 1.3234 1.3176 1.3082 1.2787 1.2737 1.2350

367.7 EUR/JPY 130.7700 127.8900 125.4400 122.1790 115.6600 114.3200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↓

188 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday April 11, 2011 Fear Dictates Monetary Policy There are too many economists running around yelling inflation is coming and in many instances is out of control. Usually when too many people get on one side of a situation it usually causes the opposite to happen.

France, the second largest economy in the European Union reported Industrial Production for February 0.4% this is less than January’s number of 0.7% and has been revised lower the last two periods prior to February; not a robust economic reporting by any view. There will be inflation reports out all this week, several for the European Union. Core CPI numbers are out on Friday for Europe and the U.S. We will see then if there is a continued trend or just human fear driving the markets.

Today’s trade will be technical with a short rest for the Euro’s rise and Dollar’s continued fall. This sets up short-term buying opportunities for the Euro and short term selling opportunities for the Dollar.

Monday, April 11, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4389 1.4350 1.4296 1.4256 1.4202

GBP/USD 1.6390 1.6357 1.6309 1.6277 1.6229

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.9353 85.4725 85.0283 84.5655 84.1213

USD/CHD 0.9215 0.9184 0.9167 0.9136 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3205 1.3152 1.3110 1.3057 1.3015

EUR/JPY 123.4075 122.5040 121.6245 120.7210 119.8415

196.1

168.4

190.5

99.3

199.3

374.4

EUR/USD 1.6038 1.5140 1.4820 1.4482 1.4221 1.4020 1.3383

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6427 1.6380 1.5936 1.5909 1.4738

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 84.7430 83.5700 81.3700 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1122 0.9581 0.9339 0.9060 0.8964 0.8751 0.7928

EUR/CHD 1.3235 1.3234 1.3176 1.3125 1.2787 1.2737 1.2350

EUR/JPY 130.7700 127.8900 125.4400 122.7350 115.6600 114.3200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↔

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

189 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday April 8, 2011 Dollar Index Breaks Technical Lows The U.S. Dollar has broken longer-term lows against many major currencies. Reasons are the budget impasse by congress and better returns in other countries due to stronger economic conditions. Technically, if the Euro closes at the current levels, above 144 to the Dollar, there is little resistance until the 160 area. At market extremes, such as the dollar is now, sentiment can change quickly.

British PPI came in much higher than expected at 3.7% more than double last month’s reading of 1.4% and 1.5% higher than expectations. The last 3 months revisions of this number have also been higher. Inflation numbers have been running higher the last three months around the globe as fuel and food prices have increased substantially. Core numbers, excluding food and energy have been stable to a slight creep up over that same period.

Today’s trades should be short lived trades as the U.S. congress has the ability to pass emergency measures to halt a government shut-down. This action would most certainly reverse the Dollar's slide for the day.

Friday, April 08, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4438 1.4396 1.4306 1.4265 1.4175

GBP/USD 1.6424 1.6380 1.6318 1.6273 1.6211

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.9683 85.7395 85.2873 85.0585 84.6063

USD/CHD 0.9364 0.9267 0.9198 0.9101 0.9032

EUR/CHD 1.3334 1.3252 1.3159 1.3077 1.2985

EUR/JPY 123.8018 123.2555 122.0568 121.5105 120.3118

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

276.6 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4352 1.4348 1.4304 1.4208 1.3225 1.1876

224.1 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6317 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

143.0 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 85.0210 83.5700 81.8000 76.4000

348.0 USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9160 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

367.1 EUR/CHD 1.3218 1.3203 1.3202 1.3104 1.3039 1.2705 1.2150

366.4 EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 122.5500 121.6140 115.6600 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

190 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday April 7, 2011 ECB Raises Rates Quarter Point ECB’s rate increase of 0.25% was in line with expectations. Explanations for this rise and any future increases will be announced at the press conference by the ECB at 8:30 am EST. The BOE or the Swiss Central Bank did not follow with a rate rise; not as of the time of this writing.

It will still be two weeks until Portugal’s request for debt help can come to a resolution and according to the European Commission the 17-Nation Eurozone’s “Domestically generated inflation is subdued,”. Additionally the commission pointed out that banks will need to hold more capital with the start of Basel III rules by the end of 2011. The commission also pointed out that the inflation numbers increases of late are due to food and fuel increases. The Euro is down slightly against most major currencies. This is what everyone was looking for and it has finally arrived, it may now be time to sell the Euro - classic buy on the rumor, sell on the news scenario.

Germany’s Industrial production for February came in at an increase of 1.6%; expectations were for 0.6% increase. This is after several months of negative numbers. The Australian unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a percent to 4.9%; the Aussy is higher against most major currencies.

Thursday, April 07, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/6/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points USD/JPY 86.0618 85.7275 84.8888 84.5545 83.7158

EUR/USD 1.4302 1.4266 1.4208 1.4172 1.4114

GBP/USD 1.6451 1.6397 1.6244 1.6190 1.6036

197.2

435.3

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4352 1.4348 1.4331 1.4208 1.3225 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6326 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 85.3980 83.5700 81.8000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9184 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3218 1.3203 1.3202 1.3164 1.3039 1.2705 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 122.5500 122.3830 115.6600 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

246.3

USD/CHD 0.9312 0.9285 0.9244 0.9217 0.9176

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3212 1.3132 1.3099 1.3020

EUR/JPY 122.5263 122.0145 120.6633 120.1515 118.8003

142.6

236.7

391.2

191 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday April 6, 2011 Europe’s Conflicting Economic Reports Swiss CPI came in much higher than expected at 0.6%; expectations were for 0.2% after last month’s 0.4% increase. This pressures the Swiss Central Bank to raise their rate as it is widely expected the ECB will raise their rate tomorrow.

Britain’s Manufacturing Production number came in at unchanged as expectations were for an increase of 0.6% after last month’s 0.9% increase; the 0.9% increase was revised from a -0.1% decrease on the original report. Also, British Industrial Production declined -1.2% last month after a string of increases.

German Factory Orders for February printed a stronger than expected increase up 2.4%; expectations were for an increase of 0.6% after January’s numbers was slightly revised from 2.9 to 3.1%.

Overall, the economic picture for Europe does not show overheated economic activity. It is still very mixed with a lot of weakness in certain parts of the economy. Tomorrow’s expected rate increase may turn out to be nothing more than a symbolic gesture to curb overheated inflation perception.

Wednesday, April 06, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/5/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4299 1.4255 1.4223 1.4179 1.4148

GBP/USD 1.6204 1.6162 1.6134 1.6093 1.6065

Pivot Points USD/JPY 84.6485 84.4020 84.1255 83.8790 83.6025

USD/CHD 0.9298 0.9265 0.9228 0.9195 0.9157

EUR/CHD 1.3230 1.3175 1.3130 1.3075 1.3030

EUR/JPY 120.4943 120.0655 119.6203 119.1915 118.7463

158.8

145.7

109.8

148.3

210.2

183.5

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4283 1.4247 1.4218 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6294 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 85.1580 83.5700 81.8000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9251 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3218 1.3203 1.3202 1.3155 1.3039 1.2705 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 122.5500 121.0990 115.6600 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

192 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday April 5, 2011 China Raises Rates, Bernanke Hints Inflation The China Central Bank raised rates a quarter point today as the Chinese markets were closed for holiday. Bernanke, speaking at a conference in Stone Mountain Georgia Monday evening, once again stated that the Fed will have to take seriously inflation numbers and the expectations of inflation. Currency markets took that as a pro-interest rate increase statement and bought dollars.

British Services PMI came in higher than expectations forcing money flows into the Pound.

Expectations were for 52.5 after last month’s 52.6 reading; the number came in at 57.1; the pound is up a little over 100 pips against the Dollar.

The Australian Trade Balance unexpectedly fell 0.21 billion, expectations were for an increase of 1.15 billion; this coupled with the Chinese rate increase has forced the Aussy Dollar broadly lower.

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10 am EST today; expectations are for 59.8 after last month’s 59.7 reading. If this number is higher Dollars will be bought, if lower the Dollar is venerable to a sell off.

Expect mixed trading across the board today as the markets trade technically while waiting for news of bigger value.

Tuesday, April 05, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4377 1.4325 1.4193 1.4141 1.4009

GBP/USD 1.6241 1.6190 1.6080 1.6029 1.5920

Pivot Points USD/JPY 85.5725 84.8650 84.0135 83.3060 82.4545

USD/CHD 0.9409 0.9321 0.9250 0.9162 0.9091

EUR/CHD 1.3282 1.3235 1.3122 1.3075 1.2962

EUR/JPY 121.2163 120.6725 119.2453 118.7015 117.2743

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/4/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

386.0 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4283 1.4247 1.4217 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

336.4 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6128 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

327.4 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 84.1410 83.5700 81.8000 76.4000

334.7 USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9230 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

336.0 EUR/CHD 1.3218 1.3203 1.3202 1.3125 1.3039 1.2705 1.2150

413.9 EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 120.0000 119.6290 115.4800 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

193 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday April 4, 2011 Minor Economic Data, Currencies Trade Technically Britain’s Construction PMI came out at 56.4, after last month’s 56.5 reading; the Pound is rallying slightly off the news. The European PPI came in at 0.8%; this is now the third month where the PPI has been above 0.3%. Much of that increase is due to rising fuel and food costs.

Anticipation for a rate increase this Friday by the ECB is now almost unanimous.

The Euro is trading at upper trend lines on weekly and monthly charts against many major currencies. In order to continue its advances the Euro will need to close significantly above those trend lines at the end of this week. Today is the sixth up day in a row for the Euro against the Dollar and fifth up against the Yen. The Euro against the Swiss has also been up against the Swiss Franc for 5 of the last eight sessions with a 300 plus pip increase. The risk of a Euro selloff is greater now that the currency has had such a large move in a short period of time and is hitting resistance.

We will be looking to take advantage of intraday extremes in the Euro, and Yen by selling Euro and buying Yen. Monday, April 04, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4291 1.4232 1.4174 1.4115 1.4057

GBP/USD 1.6195 1.6106 1.6060 1.5971 1.5926

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.6908 83.5085 83.0328 82.8505 82.3748

USD/CHD 0.9241 0.9215 0.9170 0.9144 0.9099

EUR/CHD 1.3086 1.3058 1.2995 1.2966 1.2903

EUR/JPY 118.8705 118.5200 117.6265 117.2760 116.3825

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 4/1/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

245.7 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4283 1.4247 1.4235 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

283.1 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6109 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

138.2 USD/JPY 86.2800 85.9200 85.9200 84.0410 83.5700 81.8000 76.4000

149.9 USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9234 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

192.4 EUR/CHD 1.3218 1.3203 1.3202 1.3150 1.3039 1.2705 1.2150

261.2 EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 120.0000 119.6300 115.4800 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↑ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

194 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday April 1, 2011 U.S. Unemployment Ticks Down to 8.8% Non-Farm Payrolls came in better than expected with a rise of 216k verses the 191k expectations. The dollar will find strength with these numbers as it shows solid growth on a month over month basis. The new payrolls number is still low but continues to show growth instead of negative growth as we have seen many times in the past few years.

Swiss your-over-year Retail Sales were much higher than expectations at 1.5; expectations were for a decline of 0.8% after last month’s reading of -2.4%. The Swissy is weaker against both the U.S. Dollar and the Euro.

Britain’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1 less than the expected 60.7 and also less than last month’s revised 60.9. The pound is up against most major currencies.

European Unemployment came in at expectations of 9.9%, last month was 10.0%.

The U.S. is the place to be and continues to show good growth, compared to Europe or Japan.

Growth will win out over austerity. If Europe raises rates in face of continued benign growth, that will hurt all European currencies against the Dollar.

Friday, April 01, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/31/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4207 1.4173 1.4112 1.4077 1.4017

GBP/USD 1.6158 1.6129 1.6053 1.6024 1.5949

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.6553 83.3185 82.8393 82.5025 82.0233

USD/CHD 0.9302 0.9233 0.9203 0.9134 0.9104

EUR/CHD 1.3064 1.3013 1.2986 1.2935 1.2908

EUR/JPY 117.9910 117.6570 116.9310 116.5970 115.8710

199.9

219.9

171.4

207.9

164.0

222.6

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4299 1.4247 1.4174 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6039 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.7300 83.4800 83.1800 81.8800 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9180 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3203 1.3038 1.3012 1.2737 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 120.0000 117.8990 115.4800 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

195 | P a g e

March 2011 Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday March 31, 2011 ECB Flash CPI in at 2.6% Year-over-year - Euro Rallies The Euro was up against the dollar, over 100 pips, after the report came out and an ECB official hinted that there would be a series of rate raises to combat inflation. It has since pulled back and is currently trading at 1.4205. The Euro would need to close, in today’s or tomorrow’s session, above 1.4299 and close above it with significance to provide a meaningful continued rally.

While EC inflation numbers were higher some other European economic reports were less than stellar and even point to weakness. German Retail Sales came in at -0.3% for February; expectations were for a rise of 0.4% after January’s 0.4% rise.

The G-20 is meeting in China and the general consensus is that more pressure will be applied to China to allow the Yuan to rise against most currencies. This would slow some of China’s exports as costs would increase for Chinese goods.

Thursday, March 31, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4205 1.4159 1.4103 1.4057 1.4001

GBP/USD 1.6098 1.6055 1.5999 1.5955 1.5899

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.1690 82.9300 82.2340 81.9950 81.2990

USD/CHD 0.9276 0.9245 0.9192 0.9161 0.9108

EUR/CHD 1.3065 1.3038 1.2963 1.2935 1.2860

EUR/JPY 117.5585 117.1400 115.9715 115.5530 114.3845

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/30/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

213.8 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4299 1.4247 1.4125 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

209.8 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6077 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

196.4 USD/JPY 86.2800 83.7300 83.4800 82.9230 81.8800 76.4000 76.4000

176.4 USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9183 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

215.7 EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3203 1.3038 1.2974 1.2737 1.2402 1.2150

333.3 EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 120.0000 117.1380 115.4800 111.3000 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

196 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday March 30, 2011 ADP Non-Farm Payroll Steady ADP, the payroll service, released it’s monthly assessment of the employment situation for March, usually a forerunner to the U.S. government’s release on the first Friday of the month.

The number came in at a rise of 201k, 4,000 less than expectations and 7,000 less than February.

The dollar rallied slightly from the news.

The Yen was sold broadly in Asian and early European trade as the return of carry trade selling has returned. The Aussie is broadly higher as Yen carry trade usually benefits commodity based currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Australian Building Approvals and Retail Sales are due out tonight at 7:30 pm EST, this may extend the currency’s gains; expectations are for gains in both numbers of 4.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/29/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.1200 81.9470 81.6660 81.4930 81.2120

EUR/USD 1.4169 1.4129 1.4075 1.4035 1.3980

GBP/USD 1.6090 1.6041 1.5988 1.5939 1.5886

198.7

213.8

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4299 1.4247 1.4109 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6005 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.7300 83.4800 82.4660 81.8800 76.4000 76.4000

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↔ ↓

95.3

USD/CHD 0.9262 0.9209 0.9179 0.9126 0.9097

EUR/CHD 1.3014 1.2957 1.2924 1.2867 1.2834

EUR/JPY 116.0113 115.6315 114.9183 114.5385 113.8253

173.0

188.6

229.5

USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9203 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3203 1.3038 1.2987 1.2737 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 125.2300 120.0000 116.3530 115.4800 111.3000 99.9200

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

197 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday March 29, 2011 British Current Account & GDP Down More Than Expected The Pound is down yet again this morning against most major currencies as the Current Account came in at -10.5 billion Pounds verses expectations of -10.3 billion and a -8.7 billion Pounds last quarter. Final 4th quarter GDP was a tenth of a percent lower than originally reported at a negative 0.5% In the U.S. today, at 10 am EST the Conference Board releases it’s monthly Consumer Confidence report; expectations are for 64.9 after last month’s 70.4. If this number comes in higher than expectations, the Dollar would gain more strength.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4232 1.4132 1.4093 1.3994 1.3955

GBP/USD 1.6182 1.6090 1.6048 1.5955 1.5914

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/28/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

290.2 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4299 1.4247 1.4082 1.4038 1.3225 1.1876

281.8 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.5990 1.5816 1.5771 1.4727

130.0 USD/JPY 86.2800 83.7300 81.9000 81.7210 78.4700 76.4000 76.4000

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.8813 81.6585 81.2623 81.0395 80.6433

USD/CHD 0.9312 0.9271 0.9172 0.9131 0.9032

EUR/CHD 1.3032 1.2997 1.2926 1.2891 1.2820

293.4 USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9168 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

223.2 EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3203 1.2943 1.2912 1.2737 1.2402 1.2150

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

EUR/JPY 115.3690 114.7930 114.6300 114.0540 113.8910 155.2 EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.6300 115.0830 110.8000 106.5000 99.9200

↔ ↔ ↓

198 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday March 28, 2011 Dollar Trades Technically, No Overnight News The Dollar is higher against most major currencies this morning as the lack of Asian and European news is allowing currencies to trade on technical’s. U.S. personal spending is due out at 8:30 am EST. Expectations are high with a rise of 0.6% after last month’s 0.2% increase.

Pending Home Sales are due out at 10 am EST, expectations are for a decrease of 0.5% after last month’s -2.8% drop. Both of these could weaken the dollar if they come out worse than expected.

The Euro and the Pound are both trading at or near their trend line support. The Euro/Swiss traded up to it’s trend line resistance on Friday and then again overnight; it has now backed off and is down 55 pips. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are both hitting new highs against most currencies; the Australian is hitting highs not seen in almost 30 years against some currencies.

With few reports and currencies hitting technical support and resistance levels, look for a volatile trading day. This Thursday is end of the month so chart patterns will have more significance in weekly and monthly trading patterns.

Monday, March 28, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/25/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4320 1.4254 1.4153 1.4088 1.3987

GBP/USD 1.6325 1.6208 1.6149 1.6032 1.5973

349.6

369.0

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4299 1.4247 1.4085 1.4008 1.3225 1.1876 ↑ ↑ ↓

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.2363 81.1385 80.9473 80.8495 80.6583

USD/CHD 0.9172 0.9128 0.9078 0.9034 0.8983

EUR/CHD 1.2947 1.2918 1.2853 1.2824 1.2758

EUR/JPY 115.9228 115.4865 114.5138 114.0775 113.1048

60.7

198.7

198.9

295.9

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6400 1.6039 1.5977 1.5805 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.7300 81.8200 81.3050 78.4700 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1104 0.9594 0.9368 0.9194 0.8978 0.8831 0.9120

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3203 1.3039 1.2956 1.2737 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.4800 114.5510 110.8000 106.5000 99.9200

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

199 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday March 25, 2011 Awaiting EU Economic Summit Decisions Just as with two weeks ago all eyes are on the meeting European leaders and what will be decided about Europe’s overly indebted countries. It seems that every two weeks they meet and decide to increase bailout amounts and provide easier payback terms; the Euro rallies and everyone goes back to work happy. One has to question just how good this is considering the terms are always getting easier and the amounts increasing.

Japan’s core CPI came in at -0.3%, right in line with expectations and a tenth of a percent less than last period’s 0.2% decline. European M3 came in at a 2.0% increase over last year in this period. Italian Retail Sales for February were down 0.3% after expectations of an increase of 0.4% and an increase of 0.2% last month. The final revision to 4th quarter U.S. GDP is out today and is expected to show an increase of 3.0%, 0.2% better than originally reported.

The Euro is currently down against most currencies, watch for a turnaround early morning as the Euro Summit attendees make their comments.

Friday, March 25, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/24/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.2740 81.1180 80.9070 80.7510 80.5400

EUR/USD 1.4258 1.4165 1.4121 1.4027 1.3983

GBP/USD 1.6434 1.6323 1.6271 1.6160 1.6107

287.9

343.1

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4171 1.3936 1.3192 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6456 1.6120 1.5977 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.6900 83.2900 80.9940 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

77.1

USD/CHD 0.9164 0.9131 0.9054 0.9021 0.8944

EUR/CHD 1.2889 1.2845 1.2790 1.2746 1.2691

EUR/JPY 115.4448 114.6855 114.2618 113.5025 113.0788

230.4

207.9

248.4

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9081 0.8931 0.8843 0.8218 ↓ ↓ ↓

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3100 1.2961 1.2871 1.2433 1.2402 1.2150 ↓ ↓ ↓

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.6500 114.7830 106.5800 105.4200 99.9200 ↔ ↔ ↓

200 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday March 24, 2011 Another Euro Meeting to Contain Debt Crises The Portuguese government fell apart yesterday causing Moody’s to cut ratings on over 30 Spanish banks and today starts another meeting by European leaders to contain the debt crises. Continued talk of a rate rise in Europe along with debt workouts for those European countries over-leveraged is pushing the Euro higher against most major currencies.

European PMI reports came out overnight for France Germany and all of Europe, there were no surprises, all were within the expected range. They were also close to last period’s numbers, so no real robust expectations for growth.

England Retail Sales came in at -0.8%, less than the -0.5% decline expected and far lower than last month’s 1.5% rise. Most economic reports as of late for Great Britain have be showing signs of a slowdown.

U.S. Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 am EST with estimates showing an increase of 2.1% after last month’s 3.0% decline. This is usually a very volatile number and can be distorted by large orders that may never actually be completed.

When you have time read and comment on a new article posted yesterday in Articles for Argument section of the website titled “U.S. Dollar Down, But Not Forgotten - Why Does Everyone Love to Hate the Dollar?”

Thursday, March 24, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/23/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4275 1.4233 1.4206 1.4163 1.4136

GBP/USD 1.6467 1.6426 1.6359 1.6317 1.6250

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4568 81.1995 81.0198 80.7625 80.5828

USD/CHD 0.9077 0.9054 0.9032 0.9010 0.8988

EUR/CHD 1.2909 1.2860 1.2837 1.2788 1.2765

145.5

227.8

91.8

92.8

151.2

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4096 1.3936 1.3192 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6456 1.6242 1.5977 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.6900 83.2900 80.9340 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9076 0.8931 0.8843 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3100 1.2961 1.2796 1.2433 1.2402 1.2150

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

EUR/JPY 115.7933 115.3395 115.0783 114.6245 114.3633 150.2 EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.6500 114.1010 106.5800 105.4200 99.9200 ↔ ↔ ↓

201 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday March 23, 2011 Currency Markets Back and Fill on Lack of Fresh News The dollar has gained some minor strength in the session. On the charts it appears to be nothing more than just some backing up after a large move; a consolidation, no real direction change.

Much of the news driving trading today is nothing more than revisions to news several days old.

The Bank of England voted not to move interest rates even though yesterday’s inflation numbers were up significantly. Portugal is showing more signs of political change. And, Japan’s quake damage may be more like $309 billion than the original estimate of $200 billion.

Euro Zone Industrial New Orders came in less than expected at 0.1%; expectations were for 1.4% while January had an increase of 2.7%. This type of news does not give support to any rate increase or need for currency flows into the Pound. New Zealand’s Current Account Balance came in at -3.52 billion, that is well below last quarter’s release of -0.03 billion and less than the -2.13 billion expected. The New Zealand’s Dollar is lower on the news.

The only economic news due out this morning of significance is U.S. New Home Sales scheduled at 10 am EST. Expectations are for 291k after last month’s annualized number of 284k. This is a very small number in historical comparison and signals continued weakness in the U.S. housing market.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/22/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4304 1.4268 1.4203 1.4168 1.4102

GBP/USD 1.6407 1.6363 1.6283 1.6239 1.6158

211.9

261.0

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4198 1.3936 1.3192 1.1876 ↑ ↑ ↓

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.6563 81.4135 81.0663 80.8235 80.4763

USD/CHD 0.9107 0.9079 0.9045 0.9017 0.8982

EUR/CHD 1.2949 1.2916 1.2848 1.2815 1.2747

EUR/JPY 116.0913 115.8255 115.1343 114.8685 114.1773

123.9

131.5

211.9

201.0

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6875 1.6456 1.6372 1.5977 1.5771 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.6900 83.2900 80.9810 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9032 0.8922 0.8843 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3100 1.2961 1.2824 1.2433 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.6500 114.9810 106.5800 105.4200 99.9200

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

202 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday March 22, 2011 Broad Based Dollar Selling on Inflation News The Pound and Euro have made advances against the Dollar as England’s inflations numbers came in higher than expected; Year over Year Core CPI came in at 3.4% as opposed to 3.2% expectations and 3.0% for last period. Additionally, one of the ECB’s policy makers made the comment that the troubles in Japan did not change Europe’s inflation picture - thus giving permission to yet again buy Euro and sell Dollars.

England’s CBI (industrial orders expectations) also was positive for the first time in months providing more fuel for the Pound to rise; the Pound is currently breaking upper resistance levels.

Canadian Retail Sales are out at 8:30 am EST and expectations are for an increase of 1.1% after a decline of 0.2% last month with core numbers expectations 0.8% and 0.6% last month. Other than these numbers there are no scheduled economic news items that will move the currency markets the rest of the day. Trading for the rest of the day will be technical.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/21/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4333 1.4280 1.4130 1.4077 1.3927

GBP/USD 1.6386 1.6322 1.6191 1.6127 1.5996

426.5

409.1

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.5223 82.1485 80.6073 79.2335 77.6923 612.1

USD/CHD 0.9133 0.9063 0.9018 0.8948 0.8903

EUR/CHD 1.2954 1.2882 1.2731 1.2659 1.2508

EUR/JPY 118.5395 116.7840 113.7945 112.0390 109.0495

241.3

467.9

996.4

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4218 1.3857 1.3146 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6343 1.6301 1.5977 1.5757 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.6900 83.2900 81.1240 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9048 0.8922 0.8843 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3100 1.3012 1.2866 1.2433 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.9700 115.3480 106.5800 105.4200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

203 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday March 21, 2011 No Fundamentals, Currencies To Trade On Technicals Today’s lack of news will cause currencies to trade their technical patterns with the dollar again being the weak currency. The Yen will stabilize as the threat of intervention will keep players on the sidelines until rebuilding is imminent. Japan’s debt is currently twice as big as it’s GDP (unlike the U.S. that has debt equal to it’s GDP) and now the threat of adding reconstruction costs to that number, just as the country was showing signs of recovery, will most certainly raise the volatility of the Yen. Normally when a large disaster hits a country, it’s currency drops in response to the uncertainty, then rebounds strongly during the reconstruction.

U.S. Existing Home Sales are due out at 10 am EST with expectations of a 5.15 million annual rate. Last month’s report was 5.36 million. Watch for revisions to last month’s number as that can also influence trading.

Monday, March 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/18/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4173 1.4111 1.3989 1.3927 1.3805

GBP/USD 1.6297 1.6236 1.6108 1.6047 1.5920

386.2

396.3

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4181 1.3857 1.3146 1.1876 ↑ ↑ ↓

Pivot Points USD/JPY 81.4228 80.4285 78.7368 77.7425 76.0508

USD/CHD 0.9091 0.9030 0.8996 0.8934 0.8900

EUR/CHD 1.2784 1.2693 1.2584 1.2494 1.2385

EUR/JPY 113.9630 112.8040 110.0940 108.9350 106.2250

564.1

200.3

418.7

812.5

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6343 1.6230 1.5977 1.5757 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.6900 83.2900 80.5310 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.8993 0.8922 0.8843 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3100 1.3012 1.2756 1.2433 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.9700 114.2160 106.5800 105.4200 99.9200

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

204 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday March 18, 2011 Concerted Yen Selling Intervention Driving Markets For the first time since 2000 central banks around the World have coordinate selling of a currency to stem currency purchases. Japan started when their markets opened Friday and the G7 announced each country would continue as their markets opened, selling Yen and buying their own currency. In the past this was a fairly common action for the Group of 7 Nations. The action almost never reversed a markets price, only slowed it down. This time may be a little different as the Yen’s rise was brought on from a natural disaster, which should have had a negative effect on it’s currency.

The Swiss PPI came in at 0.2%, expectations were for 0.4% rise; last month was 0.1%. So, Swiss wholesale inflation less than expectations but, slightly greater than last month. Overall, this is the highest the Swiss PPI has been in months after several months of negative wholesale price action. Germany’s PPI was as expected at 0.7% after a 1.2% gain for January.

The European Current Account was higher at -0.7 billion. Expectations were for -10.6 billion so, this is driving the Euro higher against the U.S. Dollar.

Today’s currency price action, with most currencies, will be driven by the G-7 intervention.

Monday, March 21, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/17/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4065 1.3996 1.3931 1.3861 1.3797

GBP/USD 1.6167 1.6058 1.6021 1.5912 1.5875

281.6

306.2

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4311 1.4281 1.4019 1.3857 1.3146 1.1876 ↑ ↑ ↓

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.9208 79.6865 77.9298 74.6955 72.9388

USD/CHD 0.9343 0.9152 0.9006 0.8815 0.8669

EUR/CHD 1.3073 1.2775 1.2555 1.2257 1.2037

EUR/JPY 115.9815 111.1960 108.6975 103.9120 101.4135

1,048.1

707.7

1,088.2

1,529.6

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.6141 1.5977 1.5733 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.5800 83.2900 79.0890 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.8982 0.8964 0.8850 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3113 1.3002 1.2594 1.2402 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.0700 110.8790 106.5800 106.1700 99.9200

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

205 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday March 17, 2011 Talk of Intervention Keeps Yen in Small Range Many reasons are flying for the Yen’s extreme price moves of late, especially yesterday’s 350 point move. At this stage the reason are immaterial and the fact is the Yen is at an extreme price point. They just had and continue to have ongoing disasters with extremely large economic consequences. Fundamentally, when economic disasters occur in a country their currencies usually fall against other currencies. More than likely there will be a concerted effort by the G-7 nations to sell Yen, pushing the yen back to it’s most recent trading range.

The Swiss Industrial Production report showed considerable strength for last quarter coming in at 7.4% versus a 4.7% expectation and a 1.4% reading last quarter. The Swiss Central Bank also did not increase interest rates today, as it certainly could have because of continued economic strength in Switzerland. More than likely out of fear it will lend more strength to the Franc.

In the U.S. this morning the CPI and Industrial production are due out at 8:30 am EST. The CPI is expected to come in at 0.5% with a 0.1% core; last month was 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are expected to be 0.7% and 76.6% respectively; last month was -0.1% and 76.1%.

Thursday, March 17, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/16/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/USD 1.4123 1.4076 1.3965 1.3918 1.3807

GBP/USD 1.6287 1.6184 1.6081 1.5977 1.5874

331.4

433.6

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4321 1.4035 1.3931 1.3752 1.3164 1.1876 ↑ ↑ ↓

Pivot Points USD/JPY 82.4613 81.4635 81.0323 80.0345 79.6033

USD/CHD 0.9289 0.9218 0.9178 0.9107 0.9068

EUR/CHD 1.3042 1.2932 1.2834 1.2724 1.2626

EUR/JPY 115.8610 114.3830 113.1690 111.6910 110.4770

300.1

232.7

436.8

565.3

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.5985 1.5977 1.5733 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.5800 83.2900 77.1920 76.4000 76.4000 76.4000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.8982 0.8977 0.8850 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3113 1.3002 1.2516 1.2402 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.0700 107.5540 106.5800 106.1700 99.9200

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

206 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday March 16, 2011 Moody’s Cuts Portugal’s Debt Rating Yet another blow to the just finished European debt deal. As it appeared last weekend to have averted a multi-country debt meltdown, the European Union’s debt restructure package is already running into issues. On the news the Euro is down against all major currencies.

Britain’s version of Unemployment Claims, Claimant Count, this morning showed a loss of 10,200 as expectations were for a 1500 person gain. The British Unemployment Rate ticked up a tenth of a percent. At 8:30 am EST reports a whole slew of U.S. economic reports are due; Building Permits, expectations of 580,000, PPI - expectations 0.7%, Current Account - negative 111 billion, and Housing Starts also 580,000. The Current Account should have no real surprises as the Monthly Trade Balance data is known. Building permits and Housing Starts could move the dollar if they come in higher than 600,000. And, the PPI at 0.7% is high, but the core reading is expected to be a more benign 0.2%.

The Euro needs to rally against the dollar 50 to 75 pips above 1.4035 and close there or else the chart patterns will rule and it will test it’s support at around 1.3750. The Dollar needs to rally off it’s lows with the Swissy and Yen or a new bout of selling will incur.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/15/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.4328 82.5955 81.5968 80.7595 79.7608

EUR/USD 1.4068 1.4036 1.3970 1.3938 1.3872

GBP/USD 1.6313 1.6257 1.6141 1.6085 1.5969

206.4

361.2

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4321 1.4035 1.3997 1.3752 1.3164 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.6078 1.5977 1.5733 1.4727

USD/JPY 86.2800 83.5800 83.2900 80.7520 80.3000 80.3000 80.3000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9162 0.9131 0.8850 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3113 1.3002 1.2826 1.2705 1.2434 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.0700 113.0390 111.9500 106.8200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

385.6

USD/CHD 0.9342 0.9283 0.9256 0.9197 0.9169

EUR/CHD 1.2997 1.2959 1.2932 1.2894 1.2867

EUR/JPY 116.2968 115.4225 113.9498 113.0755 111.6028

182.5

135.7

492.9

207 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday March 15, 2011 Radiation Fears Drop Nikkei Over 10% Drifting radiation from an explosion at a nuclear plant north of Tokyo caused the Nikkei to drop over 14% at one point and closed down over 10%. The Yen is up as most investors are looking ahead to the country rebuilding.

Safety is in 3 major currencies; the U.S. Dollar, the Swiss Franc and the Yen. Because Australia does much of its trade with Japan it is being hit the hardest; down sharply against the Dollar, Yen and Swissy. The Euro is also being hit hard as the euphoria wears off of the European debt deal and realization settles in that it may not work as planned.

The German ZEW came in lower than expected at 14.1, expectations were 16.2. This is a survey of large investor economic expectations over the next 6 months. The last 2 months have been around a reading of 15, higher than December’s 4.3.

Volatility appears to be here for a while. At this time there are many major economic situations pulling on all economies in all directions; earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown(s) in Japan, country debt in Europe, potential bank insolvency in Europe, and one must not forget a global economic slowdown that continues to stagnate growth. In situations like this there needs to be a very large, almost catastrophic move to end the volatility. It does not appear to be enough yet.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance First Resistance Pivot Point First Support Lower Support

EUR/USD 1.4048 1.4019 1.3885 1.3857 1.3723

GBP/USD 1.6168 1.6140 1.6058 1.6030 1.5948

Pivot Points USD/JPY 83.7595 82.5920 82.1205 80.9530 80.4815

USD/CHD 0.9387 0.9327 0.9297 0.9237 0.9206

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/14/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

341.9 EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4321 1.4035 1.3987 1.3752 1.3164 1.1876

230.6 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.6171 1.5977 1.5733 1.4727

344.2 USD/JPY 86.2800 83.5800 83.2900 81.6780 81.1300 80.9300 80.3000

190.3 USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9240 0.9201 0.9147 0.8218

216.1 EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3113 1.3002 1.2927 1.2705 1.2434 1.2150

438.7 EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.0700 114.2550 111.9500 106.8200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

EUR/CHD 1.3012 1.2993 1.2909 1.2890 1.2807

EUR/JPY 116.0538 115.0105 113.9648 112.9215 111.8758

208 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday March 14, 2011 EU Bailouts and BOJ $183 Billion Infusion Drive Currencies Saturday the Euro Zone leaders provided a debt relief package better than expected. They lowered the interest rate on Greece’s debt and pledged an increase of €190 billion ($265 billion) to the European debt bailout fund, bringing the total to €440 billion ($610 billion). Spanish, Portuguese and Greek bonds all rallied significantly with Greek bonds dropping 60 basis points off their yields. The Euro gapped higher against most major currencies in Sunday’s trading and has continued higher as Monday’s trading opened in Europe. Technically, the currency could rally more before selling off and trying to fill the gap.

Monday morning the Bank Of Japan infused ¥15 trillion ($183 billion) into their money market system to head off a potential liquidity crises as the Nikkei dropped over 6% due to the earthquake and tsunami. The Yen rallied substantially against all currencies when the markets opened Sunday evening (Monday morning Japan time) and has since lost considerable ground and is now lower against most currencies.

European Industrial Production came in at 0.3% a tenth of a percent lower than expectations and equal to last month’s number. Canada’s Capacity Utilization is due out at 8:30 am EST and is expected to be 79.1% after last quarter’s reading of 78.1%. There are no other scheduled economic reports that could move the markets for the rest of the day.

Monday, March 14, 2011 Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHD EUR/CHD EUR/JPY Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/11/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Upper Resistance 1.3972 1.6265 83.4190 0.9400 1.2983 115.6395

First Resistance 1.3871 1.6144 83.2040 0.9358 1.2913 114.9920

EUR/USD 1.4352 1.4321 1.4035 1.3901 1.3752 1.3164 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.6078 1.5977 1.5733 1.4727

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points Pivot Point 1.3823 1.6091 82.9490 0.9319 1.2872 114.5945 USD/JPY 86.2800 83.5800 83.2900 81.8260 81.6700 81.6500 80.3000 ↔ ↓ ↓

First Support 1.3722 1.5971 82.7340 0.9277 1.2802 113.9470

Lower Support 1.3673 1.5918 82.4790 0.9237 1.2761 113.5495

Daily Point/Pip Range W/5% Error 313.1 364.4 98.7 171.4 232.9 219.5

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9667 0.9368 0.9294 0.9235 0.9147 0.8218

EUR/CHD 1.3245 1.3113 1.3002 1.2924 1.2787 1.2434 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.0700 113.7630 113.0600 106.8200 99.9200

↓ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

209 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday March 11, 2011 Yen Gains Strength After Major Earthquake

A major quake and tsunami hit the northern part of Japan at about midnight New York time. At first the Yen sold off and then a repatriation of sorts has lifted the Yen against all major currencies. Trading of the Yen is still within it’s technical patterns showing consolidation against the Euro and the U.S. Dollar.

Today’s European debt meeting will take center stage as the day continues. There must be a definitive, positive solution that comes out of the meeting. If there is not, then traders will value that as a no confidence vote and sell the Euro.

Today is shaping up to be a volatile Friday. U.S. Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 am EST, expectations are for a rise of 0.8% after a 0.3% rise in January. England’s PPI Input was less than expected, 1.1% versus a 1.4% expectations and a 2.3% last period. This is usually a volatile number that shows what manufacturers’ pay for their goods. The Pound is down against the Euro and the Dollar.

Friday, March 11, 2011 Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHD EUR/CHD EUR/JPY Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/10/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Upper Resistance 1.3988 1.6299 83.0910 0.9405 1.3061 115.5240

First Resistance 1.3950 1.6252 82.9010 0.9344 1.2987 115.3040

Pivot Points Pivot Point 1.3902 1.6195 82.7360 0.9305 1.2941 115.0240

First Support 1.3864 1.6147 82.5460 0.9243 1.2867 114.8040

EUR/USD 1.4392 1.4348 1.3860 1.3797 1.3775 1.3130 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6343 1.6206 1.6058 1.6037 1.5691 1.4717

USD/JPY 86.2800 84.4900 83.6500 82.9630 81.7300 81.1300 80.3000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9687 0.9362 0.9317 0.9232 0.9201 0.8573

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

Daily Point/Pip Lower Support Range W/5% Error 1.3817 180.0 1.6090 219.0 82.3810 74.6 0.9205 210.4 1.2821 252.0 114.5240 105.0 EUR/CHD 1.3150 1.3135 1.3020 1.2858 1.2804 1.2402 1.2150 ↔ ↓ ↓

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.2500 114.4730 113.4900 106.8200 99.9200 ↔ ↔ ↓

210 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday March 10, 2011 Dollar Up Against Most Major Currencies

The dollar is up against most major currencies this morning as Spain’s debt received a Moody’s downgrade and the Bank of England left its rate at a record low and kept its asset purchase program in place. Tomorrow’s meeting of European nations to discuss their debt issues has become the most important currency news of the week. Today’s activity of the Euro will trade on perception of the meeting’s results; a negative tone is set and will continue.

Overnight economic news was in line with expectations except for China’s surprise February trade deficit. Everyone is attributing the deficit to higher oil prices. What ever the reason it could be a sign the Chinese economy is starting to slow and slow faster than expectations.

U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims and the U.S. Trade Balance are due out at 8:30 am EST, this may cap the strength of the Dollar for the day if Claims are weaker than expectations (expectations are for 375k) and the Trade Balance comes in less than the -$41.4 billion expected.

The Euro has broken it’s first pivot point support as well as it’s trendline support. If it closes at this level today, that would be bearish for the Euro. The Pound has also broken it’s first pivot point support and is close to it’s trendline support.

Thursday, March 10, 2011 Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHD EUR/CHD EUR/JPY

Upper Resistance 1.4041 1.6245 83.2315 0.9432 1.3100 115.5690

First Resistance 1.3967 1.6200 82.9740 0.9400 1.3055 115.2610

Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/9/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

EUR/USD 1.4392 1.4348 1.4035 1.3907 1.3876 1.3130 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6745 1.6343 1.6200 1.6082 1.5691 1.4717

USD/JPY 86.2800 84.4900 83.0300 82.7230 81.6400 81.1300 80.3000

USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9687 0.9637 0.9293 0.9201 0.9201 0.8573

EUR/CHD 1.3150 1.3135 1.3024 1.2927 1.2705 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.9700 115.0550 112.7100 106.8200 99.9200

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

↓ ↓ ↓

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Pivot Points Pivot Point 1.3914 1.6162 82.5885 0.9330 1.2993 114.9030

First Support 1.3840 1.6118 82.3310 0.9298 1.2948 114.5950

Daily Point/Pip Lower Support Range W/5% Error 1.3788 265.9 1.6080 173.0 81.9455 135.0 0.9228 214.0 1.2886 224.7 114.2370 139.9

211 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday March 9, 2011 Mixed Global Economic News and Rumors of ECB's Action Abound

Australia was one of the few nations that avoided much of the real estate debacle over the last few years. Now, it appears to be joining in to the activity; Home Loans for January were down 4.5%, expectations were for a decline of 0.7%, while the last 3 months were all positive showing increases of over 2%. One month does not make a trend, however the decline is worrisome.

Rumors are flying that the ECB will buy bonds of some of the highest indebted Euro Nations to curb record debt yields. Countries like Portugal, Greece and Spain debt yields have soared making it tougher for those countries to pay back the loans. This would be bullish for the Euro.

The Swiss CPI was up 0.4% while expectations were for an increase of 0.3% and equaling out last month's -0.4% decline. England's Trade Imbalance was better than expected at a -7.1 billion verses expectations of -8.5 billion; the Pound is up on the news.

The Dollar gained ground the last few days; technically, it is set up today to lose against most currencies.

Wednesday, March 09, 2011 Currency Upper Resistance 1.4062 EUR/USD 1.6390 GBP/USD 82.6313 USD/JPY 0.9298 USD/CHD 1.3021 EUR/CHD 115.6048 EUR/JPY Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/8/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly) Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

First Resistance 1.4008 1.6279 82.4475 0.9284 1.2981 115.2305

Pivot Points Pivot Point 1.3982 1.6230 82.1963 0.9259 1.2947 114.8868

EUR/USD 1.4392 1.4348 1.4035 1.3904 1.3876 1.3130 1.1876

GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6745 1.6343 1.6159 1.6082 1.5691 1.4717

USD/JPY 86.2800 84.4900 83.0300 82.6540 81.6400 81.1300 80.3000

↑ ↑ ↓

↑ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ ↓

First Support 1.3928 1.6120 82.0125 0.9245 1.2907 114.5125 USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9687 0.9637 0.9349 0.9201 0.9201 0.8573 ↓ ↓ ↓

Daily Point/Pip Lower Support Range W/5% Error 1.3901 168.6 1.6071 335.0 81.7613 91.4 0.9220 82.1 1.2873 154.8 114.1688 150.8 EUR/CHD 1.3150 1.3135 1.3024 1.3001 1.2705 1.2402 1.2150

EUR/JPY 126.2100 115.9700 115.9700 114.9290 112.7100 106.8200 99.9200

↔ ↓ ↓

↔ ↔ ↓

212 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday March 8, 2011 Dollar Stronger Against Most Major Currencies The Dollar is stronger against the major currencies this morning. Technically, against the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen the Dollar is starting a new uptrend and has the ability to move substantially higher. In both the British Pound and European Currency an upward trendline is supportive. If those currencies close below that trend line there would be continued strong selling and Dollar buying.

There was very little economic news overnight and very little expected for the rest of today; the Swiss Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 3.4% and German Factory Orders were considerably stronger than expected or last month at 2.9% versus 2.6% expectations and a negative 3.6% for last month. These numbers failed to move the Euro or Swiss Franc against the Dollar.

Greece raised €1.625 billion ($2.3 billion) after having it's debt downgraded by Moody's. There is still substantial fear more European countries' debt will be downgraded and that more of their banks will show stress. Long-term this is not a fundamental positive for the Euro.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 Currency EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHD EUR/CHD EUR/JPY Support/Resistance/ Trend 3rd Resistance (Monthly) 2nd Resistance (Weekly) 1st Resistance (Daily) Close 3/7/2011 1st Support (Daily) 2nd Support (Weekly) 3rd Support (Monthly)

Daily Trend Weekly Trend Monthly Trend

Upper Resistance 1.4048 1.6339 83.2975 0.9362 1.3063 116.3975 EUR/USD 1.4392 1.4348 1.4035 1.3969 1.3876 1.3130 1.1876

↑ ↑ ↓

First Resistance 1.4022 1.6304 82.7080 0.9292 1.2991 115.6910 GBP/USD 1.7043 1.6745 1.6343 1.6199 1.6137 1.5691 1.4717

↑ ↔ ↔

Pivot Points Pivot Point 1.3981 1.6269 82.4585 0.9257 1.2953 115.2765 USD/JPY 86.2800 84.4900 83.0300 82.2300 81.6400 81.1300 80.3000

↔ ↓ ↓

First Support 1.3955 1.6234 81.8690 0.9186 1.2882 114.5700 USD/CHD 1.1157 0.9687 0.9328 0.9264 0.9201 0.9201 0.8573

↓ ↓ ↓

Daily Point/Pip Lower Support Range W/5% Error 1.3914 140.5 1.6199 147.0 81.6195 176.2 0.9151 222.0 1.2844 229.7 114.1555 235.4 EUR/CHD EUR/JPY 1.3150 126.2100 1.3135 115.9700 1.3024 115.9700 1.2943 114.8730 1.2705 112.7100 1.2402 106.8200 1.2150 99.9200

↔ ↓ ↓

213 | P a g e

↔ ↔ ↓

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Mail Update Monday March 7, 2011 High Oill Prices & European Rate Rise Could Slow Global Economy?

Oil is now trading near $107 per barrel and the talk of an interest rate increase in Europe is still strong. Last week's economic reports around the globe were less than exciting. Moody's just downgraded wngraded Greece's debt. Spain, Portugal and Italy have debt issues coupled with a rate rise and European bank issues is not be a good fundamental mix to help growth in Europe or globally.

There is no real news of importance today so currencies will trade off of technicals. The Dollar is mostly down and the Euro is mostly up. Libyan unrest continues to support the Euro. Today, look for continued strength in the Euro and weakness in the Dollar.

Starting today we will be adding daily pivot points along with ith support and resistance levels for 6 of the most traded currencies - see below. The pivot points will be calculated daily as a guide to further assist everyone in their trading. Support and resistance levels will not change as often, but will provide another trading tool. At the very bottom of the support and resistance box are arrows giving market directions. These directions are based on trends in the daily, weekly or monthly charts. *Pivot points are a calculation while the support, resistance and trend are an observation.

214 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday March 4, 2011 U.S. Employment Situation Expected to Show an Increase

Today's U.S. Department of Labor much watched employment situation is expected to show an increase of 191,000 new non-farm jobs added to the economy. Wednesday's ADP report was higher than expectations and is thought to be a precursor to today's report. Also, yesterday's unemployment benefits numbers were considerably lower. The 4 week moving average is now at 388,000; below the 400,000 recessionary threshold. If these numbers are a precursor to today's number then today's report could be much higher. The unemployment rate is expected to be 9.1%, a tenth of a percent higher than last month. You can view the report here, http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#OEUS If the payroll number comes out a lot higher that will boost the Dollar, if it comes in around expectations then the Dollar will be stable to a little weaker and if the number comes out a lot lower combined with a higher unemployment rate then the dollar will sell off.

Currently the Dollar is higher against most currencies including the Euro.

215 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update hursday March 3, 2011

Swiss Retail Sales Down 2.6%

Switzerland's Retail Sales came in lower than expectations by a considerable amount; expectations were for a positive 1.7% and they came in at -2.6%. This number is a year-overyear number so, there can be some volatility; however, this is the worst reading in several months. The Euro is up against the Swissy and the Dollar is fighting to gain ground. More than likely this will weight on the Swiss Franc over the next couple of days.

Services Purchasing Managers Index in Great Britain came out lower than expectations and 2 points lower than month; 54.5 last month, 53.8 expectations and the February's number came in at 52.6. The Pound is down against most currencies because of the weaker number. 

Both of these numbers point to weakness in the European sectors which is contrary to expectations for a rate increase in Europe and England.

Overall the dollar is holding steady in overnight trade. The U.S. Services or non-manufacturing PMI comes out at 10:00 am EST. Expectations are for a reading of 59.6. If the number is higher the dollar will rally strongly, if it is weakly the dollar will lose ground but, not a whole lot as too much bad news is already built in to it's pricing. Sentiment is too negative against the Dollar and exchange rates have move considerably against the dollar all week this week. It is over-done.

216 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday March 2, 2011 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Up Over 200,000

ADP's report on the employment situation in the U.S. has become a good precursor to the Labor Department's report on the first Friday of the month. ADP's report came out this morning at 217,000, still far below the 400,000 needed for a greatly expanding economy but, none the less still encouraging. Next all eyes will be on Friday's Department of Labor's employment report. If that confirms the strength in employment coupled with the U.S.'s easy monetary policies, there could be renewed strength in the Dollar.

The U.S. Beige Book comes out at 2:00 pm EST today. This is a culmination of surveys by the Fed that shows economic strength or weakness in each of the 12 Fed districts. It usually explains what is already known.

Currencies this morning are mixed. There appears to be some consolidation in the Dollar which may be an indication of bottoming. Today's trading range may again be already established as there is very little news to move the markets. The one wildcard, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa; this fact can always explode and create a new situation. Up until this point the Dollar has been the loser in Middle East unrest, which could change along with the perception that the U.S. is not as weak as once perceived.

217 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday March 1, 2011 An Overnight Plethora of News Swiss GDP for the 4th quarter (0.9%) was revised a tenth of a percent higher, while German Unemployment (-52k) weakened more than expected. The overall European Unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a percent to 9.9%. The dollar is weaker against the Euro, Swissy and Pound.

Bernanke testifies at 10 am EST and everyone will be listening for a determination on how long the Fed will keep up the weak monetary policy. Also at 10 am, the Institute for Supply Management releases it's take on Manufacturing Prices and gives it's assessment of a Purchasing Mangers Index. Expectations are for Manufacturing Prices are expected to have a reading of 82.7 while the PMI is expected to increase to 60.9, a tenth of a percent higher than last month.

The dollar is over-extended in it's selloff against European currencies. If Bernanke's comments show any signs of positive rate increases in the near future, the dollar will rally. If not, then there will probably be very little movement the rest of the day as most of the bad news for the dollar is already built in to the current pricing.

218 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update February 2011 Monday February 28, 2011

Dollar Down Against Most Major Currencies - Euro CPI Powers Currency The much awaited European CPI numbers came in mixed with a downward revision to last month's core number by 0.1%. Euro CPI came in at 2.3%, expectations were for 2.4% and last month was 2.4% - this is on a year over year basis. The core was 1.1% vs. a 1.2% expectation.

Overall a very benign report. The Euro still rallied off of the news and continues to push above a daily trend line with the dollar.

Japan's retail sales were considerably better than expectations at 0.1% rise and opposed to an expected -1.5% fall or -2.1% decline last period. This number was overshadowed by their Industrial Production 2.4% and Housing Starts numbers 2.7%, both half of expectations. The dollar is up against the Yen, slightly on the news.

Two important news items for the U.S. today; Chicago Purchasing Managers Index at 9:45 am EST and Pending Home Sales at 10:00 am EST. Expectations are for 67.9 on the Chicago PMI and a -2.2% for Pending Home Sales. Both of these reports could move the dollar, unfortunately (or fortunately if you are short the dollar) lower. The negative sentiment on the dollar is very strong; it would take both of these reports to be much stronger than expectations to move the dollar higher.

219 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday February 25, 2011

Dollar Strengthens Slightly The dollar recovered slightly against most currencies overnight. U.K. revised GDP came in slightly less than previously reported at -0.6% as opposed to -0.5% for the first reading last month. This gave an excuse to sell pounds and buy dollars. U.S. 2nd take on GDP is due out at 8:30 am EST and expectations are for 3.3% growth, a tenth of a percent more than last month's report. If that is less, less than 3.3%, then all gains by the dollar will most likely be erased.

Japan's CPI came out within expectations ranges but is still a negative number; they continue to have negative growth and negative pricing, not a good combination. University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations for the U.S. are due out at 9:55 am EST, if this shows strength that will support the dollar, if not it will add to the dollar's declines.

The Euro is decisively above a major daily trendline. To confirm longer term strength, it needs to close above this trendline today and move higher next week.

220 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday February 24, 2011

Oil Jumps Above $100 and the Dollar Hits New All Time Lows Against the Swissy Continued unrest in Libya has pushed Texas Crude above $100 in overnight trading and Brent oil is now trading at $115. Crude prices coupled with a flight to safety due to the Libyan unrest are pushing the dollar broadly lower.

Overnight there were no real economic reports that influenced the currency markets; the final report for the German 4th quarter GDP came in line with previous reports and other European economic reports were in line with expectations.

U.S. Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 am EST, always a volatile number, is expected to be a positive 2.5% after last month's 2.3% decline. New Home Sales are also due out at 8:30 and expectations are for 330,000 new home sales; last month was 329k. After yesterday's existing home report, which was good on the surface but poor in the details, not too much of a difference from expectations can be anticipated in today's New Home report.

The dollar has been pushed to extremes; a rebound is due today or tomorrow.

221 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday February 23, 2011

Inflation, Rate Hikes in Europe and England Drive Currencies Hawkish comments by a Bank of England member and rising oil prices have sparked renewed inflation and rate hike worries across Europe. Because of this the Euro is stronger against most currencies including the Swiss Franc. Technically, the Euro and British Pound are pushing upper resistance levels against most major currencies. Both will need to decisively close above those levels to create a sustained rally.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down near it most recent lows and within 100 points of it's lows made in November 2010. A test of the November lows is very possible and likely.

Economical reports over night were of no real significance as the French CPI came in slightly less than expected (still a negative number) and the Swiss PPI came in as expected at 0.1% higher than last month. There are no other economic reports due out today that can impact currencies.

Trading for today; expect continued strength in the Euro and British Pound.

222 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday February 22, 2011

Wild European Currency Trading Overnight Asian trading boosted the dollar against the Euro overnight so that at one point the Euro was down over 100 pips. Mid-day Europe trading has recovered almost all those losses. Fear of Libyan unrest, European bank problems and large sell orders of Euro's have all caused extreme volatility for the Euro. If you trade this market today, exercise extreme caution, days like today can chop even the best of traders profits to nothing.

No significant reports due out today; retail sales in Canada, Consumer Confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index in the U.S. None of which will significantly move currencies.

The U.S. Consumer Confidence could give strength to the Dollar if it is significantly higher than expectations (70 or better); expectations are around 65, it was 60.6 last month - report is due out at 10 am EST.

223 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday February 21, 2011

Inflation Worries and Mideast Unrest Driving Currencies Most currency ranges will have been put in by the end of trading in Europe as the U.S. markets are closed. Expect a fairly mundane trading day without very much news and fewer traders; banks are closed in the U.S. Overnight the dollar lost ground in early trading and then rebounded broadly. Globally, there are no economic reports that will influence the markets today. Fundamentals will focus on Mideast tensions and the threat of inflation.

On Friday the Euro broke a minor resistance point and now needs to break another minor resistance point around 137.60. Friday was the third up day and showed significant strength for the Euro. Technically the currency needs to continue its move today or it will start a new downtrend.

224 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Friday February 18, 2011

China Raises Rates for Second Time in February China raised reserve requirements today by ½%; this is the second tightening this month. China is certainly in a bubble and has never really experienced an economic collapse. Raising rates as fast as they are is not giving their economy a chance to react to the last increase. Since China has become the second largest economy and has never really experienced a “Free Market” bust of their own, emotions and global affects could be very rough for more than just China.

European debt fears are resurfacing and comments by an ECB official that the bank may raise rates pulled the Euro in both directions in Asian and European trade. Britain’s retail sales for January came in at 1.9%; more than triple expectations. The Pound is up against most currencies. Germany’s PPI came in at 1.2%; twice expectations. If pricing pressures continue to rise and European banks have more debt issues, stagflation worries will become reality and the Euro currency will become less favorable.

The dollar will need to lose a lot of ground today to decisively break technical support levels. It is Friday with no real scheduled economic news for the remainder of the trading session so; expect the day’s trading range to expand very little from the overnight session. These are the type of days to be careful as choppy, directionless, trade can return profits made earlier in the week.

Do not miss today’s Webinar at 4 pm EST, it will be the first scheduled Webinar by Fx Addicts.

225 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Thursday February 17, 2011 All eyes this morning are on the U.S. CPI due out at 8:30 am EST. Expectations are for 0.3% with a 0.1% core. The dollar has been beaten up the last couple of days. If these numbers come out within expectations then the dollar will rally. Anything different and the dollar will sell off initially and then recover as most of the negative from the number is already built in.

We have several U.S. Fed officials speaking today including Bernanke. The dollar almost always experiences greater volatility on these days. Looking at overnight trading the dollar is mostly down. Many chart patterns give strength for the dollar early on the day. However, the slightest comment from a Fed official can make all the difference and cause the dollar to move dramatically. Playing the chart pattern’s volatility intraday will prove difficult but, rewarding.

Europe’s Current Account was reported earlier and was considerably worse than expected. This dragged the Euro down against most currencies. Against the dollar the Euro was up for most of the trading session and since the report has been essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close.

Against the Swissy the Euro selling strengthened after the report and has only recovered slightly some of those losses.

226 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Wednesday February 16, 2011

The Band of England gave it’s inflation and growth assessment for the coming year. They are expecting inflation to continue in the 3 to 4 percent annual range into mid-summer while they are expecting a slowdown in growth. The Sterling fell on this news as the slower growth indications are not supportive of a strong currency.

At 8:30 am EST we will get the U.S. PPI and housing numbers. Expectations are for a high 0.9% PPI mainly due to food and oil prices while the core is expected to be a more moderate 0.2%. Housing starts, also to be released at 8:30, are expected to be around 550k for an annual rate, still a far cry from the 1.5 million in the peak years. The U.S. housing numbers, over the past few months, have been weaker than expected for both existing homes and new home sales.

The January number could also come in lower than expectations as the winter storms may have hindered buying.

227 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Tuesday February 15, 2011 Britain’s CPI was released at 4% annually, 3% core. Looking deeper into the numbers, the rise was only 0.1% for the month of January and the increase of taxes had a lot to do with that figure.

While it is still inflation, overall it is still not enough to make the BOE raise rates. None the less the Pound is up slightly against the dollar for the second day in a row.

Overall Euro zone growth came in at 0.3% for the 4th quarter last year or 1.7% for the year.

Tepid growth to say the least. Fundamentally, Long term this will do very little to support a stronger Euro. The Euro is up slightly this morning; however it is more technical then report related.

U.S. retail sales are out at 8:30 am (EST), expectations are for 0.5%. At 10 am we have business inventories and the U.S. Housing Index; inventories are expected to be 0.7% and the Housing Index a reading of 16. Inventories could suggest a holiday hangover if very different from the 0.7 number and the Housing index is just non-eventful from a historical standpoint no matter how good of a number.

228 | P a g e

Fx Addicts Daily E-Mail Update Monday February 14, 2011

Big news for the day is WestLB bank is showing signs of distress. WestLB is a $500 billion bank based in Germany and is partially owned by the state of Rhine. There is talk of an aid package to rescue the bank but time is running short without a definitive answer in sight. This is weighting very heavily on the Euro. A failure of this magnitude would have repercussions worldwide as the bank is a major player in many countries. This will cause pain for the Euro against all currencies until it is resolved.

Japanese GDP came in less than expected at -1.6% (expectations were for (-1.5%), however we choose to look at the number we cannot ignore the fact it is a negative number and albeit a fairly serious negative number. Concern of a major world economy not being able to recovery while there are significant pricing pressures with it’s very large neighbor, China, could be cause for concern of the Yen’s strength.

President Obama reviled a $3.73 trillion budget for fiscal year 2012. While the focus has been on trying to cut spending this budget still produces a $1.1 trillion deficit. Longer term if this continues without significant GDP growth it would be very bad for the U.S. dollar.

229 | P a g e