Spoils of war

Russian vegetable oil exports could rise to 7.4M tonnes this year compared to 4.6M tonnes in 2022, while meal exports are expected to increase to 4.5M tonnes compared with 3M tonnes in 2022.

Maltsev says that state policy aimed at increasing oilseeds production "concerns the introduction of new agricultural land and increased productivity as a result of an enhanced farming culture".

The domestic processing sector is protected by export duties on sunflowerseeds, with Russian processing of seeds and production of sunflower oil growing in proportion with an increased sunflowerseed crop.

"As our production volume is more than triple the country's domestic needs, the main vector is export to the global market.”

The USDA projects that in the 2022/23 marketing year, Russia will export 3.7M tonnes of sunflower oil against Ukraine's 3.65M tonnes which, for Ukraine, is 45% down from the previous year. This gives Russia a 35% market share compared with Ukraine's 34%. Three years ago, the shares were 28% and 50% respectively.

In the same period, Ukraine is forecast to export 2.45M tonnes of sunflowerseed, more than 20 times its pre-war volumes, which will account for 45% of the global sunflowerseed export trade.

Record harvests

Russia grows a wide spectrum of oilseed products, sunflowerseed being the largest by volume. In 2022, sunflowerseed production surpassed 15M tonnes, the Oil and Fat Union of Russia says.

Soyabean is the next biggest oilseed crop, reaching almost 6M tonnes in 2022, followed by rapeseed at more than 3.7M tonnes, and flaxseed at about 1.5M tonnes. Camelina, safflower and mustard seed crops are also grown in Russia, but in small volumes.

The 2022 harvest saw increases in Russian output of all oilseeds. According to a March 2023 report from Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Russian farmers harvested 29M tonnes of oilseeds in 2022, a 17% increase compared with 2021.

This included an increase in the sunflowerseed harvest from 15.6M tonnes to 16.3M tonnes; soyabeans from 4.76M tonnes to 5.99M tonnes, and rapeseed from 2.79M tonnes to 4.5M tonnes.

More exports to Asia

Russian exports of vegetable oils have grown despite unprecedented sanctions imposed by European, north American and some Asian countries restricting financial flows and other trade, but not of foodstuffs including oilseeds.

While Russia’s sunflowerseed production volume tops the different oilseeds, soyabean, flaxseed and rapeseed surpass it in terms of export volumes.

“There are hardly any exports of sunflowerseeds. They are processed in the country instead,” Maltsev says.