COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER
Global Cleantech Report 2012 A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
- EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION -
May, 2012
DOWNLOAD REPORT cphcleantech.com/global-cleantech-report
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EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
Table of contents
1) Executive Summary The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth • The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
p. 3
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
p. 4
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
p. 5
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
p. 6
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
p. 7
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system • To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
p. 9
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
p. 10
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
p. 11
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
p. 12
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
p. 13
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? • Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
p. 15
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
p. 16
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
p. 17
2) Appendix
2
p. 18
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms Cleantech plaforms – market size (USD billions)
CAGR
7%
28%
3%
26%
-7%
39%
4%
6%
84%
74%
66%
243
18%
2015 Growth 2010 Market
72
160
110 113
15
79 89
171
73 63
95
107
59
47 26
14
31 5 26
13 4 10
1
13 13
8 1
7 8
1
5 6
2
3
-28
Clean water
Building efficiency materials
Onshore wind
Smart grid
Solar PV (2011-2015)
Offshore wind
Solid waste
Note: Markets include all major CAPEX but not operations or commodities. Total may vary due to roundings
3 Sources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Bioenergy
Clean road transport
Maritime cleantech
Energy storage
Geothermal
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
The global market for cleantech across regions, 2010- 2015E (USD billions) North America
CAGR >10% CAGR 0-10% CAGR < 0%
Europe
Onshore wind
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Solar
Geothermal
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
~14%
Clean water
Clean water
Onshore wind Offshore wind
~4%
Clean road/EV
181
Solid waste
Asia
243
Geothermal Bioenergy
287
198
Solid waste
Solar
~15%
Building efficiency materials
94
Smart grid
142
Clean road/EV Clean water Solid waste
2010 2015
Africa
South America ~19%
8 26
Geothermal Building efficiency materials
11
Clean water
Offshore wind
~8%
Onshore wind Offshore wind
2010 2015
13
19
Solar
Smart grid Clean road/EV
Onshore wind
16
Solar Bioenergy
Australia
~14%
Onshore wind Offshore wind
2010 2015
2010 2015
Solid waste
Bioenergy
Smart grid
2010 2015
Clean road/EV Clean water
Smart grid
Solid waste
Clean water Solid waste
Note: “centre of gravity” is used as a metaphorical term in this context
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials Clean road/EV
4 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Geothermal Building efficiency materials
Geothermal
2010 2015
Solar
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
Top-30 cities will drive 20% of the GDP growth from 2010-20
Total GDP growth, 2010-2020
Cities have the power to influence cleantech investments through large projects Area
City power
Number of city projects
Transport Buildings
100%
Waste
ROW
Water Energy supply 60%
Outdoor lighting
Top-600 cities
ECO-city definition
20%
Top-30 cities 10%
100%
Total population growth, 2010-2020
ECO-cities cover five focus areas which contribute to improve the quality of life in cities while using resources in a sustainable way and reducing environmental impact • Urban transport • Waste • Renewable and smart energy generation and distribution • Water • Building energy efficiency
5 Source: McKinsey & Co, Brookings Institute, PWC, UN, World Bank, C40, MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
Share of the world's population living in urban areas Per cent (billion people)
(7,57)
(7,91)
(8,22)
(7,22) (6,84)
Rural areas
Urban areas
6
50%
48%
46%
50%
52%
54%
2010
2015
2020
43%
57%
41%
Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments
China is planning to invest DKK 1.800 billion across 160 infrastructure projects over the next couple of years to merge nine cities in South China, creating a city with 42 million inhabitants*
59% Total investment in urban infrastructure in China over the next five years is expected to hit GBP 685 billion, with an additional GBP 300 billion spend on high-speed rail and GBP 70 billion on urban transport
2025
2030
*The Telegraph, 24 Jan 2011, by Malcolm Moore in Shanghai and Peter Foster in Beijing Source: World Economic Forum; The Economist; British Chamber of Commerce
British Chamber of Commerce
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS
The six megacity cleantech clusters â&#x20AC;&#x201C; including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks â&#x20AC;&#x201C; will account for the majority of the cleantech growth Top-200 large cities' growth trajectories, 2012-2020 10.000
2
9.000
1
Absolute Population Growth (103)
8.000
Indian megagrowth
7.000
6.000 Rapid urbanisation
5.000
4.000
5
3.000
4
Great Turks
Great BRIC+
2.000
6
3 Wealth creators
1.000
American Hotspots
-
50
100
150 200 Absolute GDP Growth ($ billion)
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way
7 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
250
300
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
Table of contents
1) Executive summary The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth • The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
p. 3
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
p. 4
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
p. 5
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
p. 6
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
p. 7
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system • To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
p. 9
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
p. 10
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
p. 11
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
p. 12
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
p. 13
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? • Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
p. 15
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
p. 16
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
p. 17
2) Appendix
8
p. 18
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
In order to become a viable global industry, cleantech must reduce cost of energy to become independent of governmental support Coal vs. wind – global average costs* (USD/MWh)
EXAMPLES
So far, no cleantech or clean energy industry has managed to cross the cost of energy chasm without legislative support through incentives or codes Sample technology maturity curve
ILLUSTRATIVE Gas Oil
109 243
Offshore wind
"Non-green" vs. green building – extra up-front cost for green building**
Green building – US Green building – Germany Green building – China
16%
Market penetration
Coal
Coal
Cost of energy chasm
1 7
Next gen. cleantech
17%
3 6 2 5 9 4 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Green buildings Solar PV Solid waste Offshore wind Onshore wind Bioenergy Smart grid Geothermal Clean road transport
28%
Time In 2035, subsidies to renewables reach almost USD 250 billion in the New Policies Scenario. Onshore wind becomes competitive around 2020 in the European Union … All other technologies require continuing subsidies World Energy Outlook 2011
… smart grid and building energy efficiency equipment and services are the most probable ones crossing the cost of energy chasm since they are able to reduce alternative investments in infrastructure while reducing the operating cost The Global Cleantech Report 2012
* Estimated for plants entering into service in 2016. Unit is 2012 USD ** The extra cost varies between countries due to difference in local build culture, certification programmes and green build material production 9 Source: World Energy Outlook; Reuters; World Business Council Sustainable Development – BCI Survey; Quartz+Co analysis; MEC Intelligence analysis
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content ILLUSTRATIVE Savings from integrated "One System" solutions across city segments City segment City segment description
Affordable Greening - e.g. Lagos
Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City
Branded City - e.g. London
• • •
•
•
Driven by extreme urbanization and low GDP Need to create a large growth in new housings Making these housings and infrastructure “green” can create the lowest total CAPEX for water, electricity and waste
• •
Evident in most large and fast growing cities in developing countries Strong urbanization in recent years Focus on livability through buildings with improved comfort, more efficient transportation and typically most important – clean water and clean air
•
Large cities in the developed world which are competing against each other to attract the right companies and to be a very attractive place to live for its citizens The ECO city projects are not a “need” driven ambition but a strive towards being a truly better place
Green building extra CAPEX Energy infrastructure CAPEX saving Energy/water subsidy saving Water utility CAPEX saving Transport infrastructure CAPEX saving Job creation from local content Attractive lucrative jobs Retaining attractive population Value (USD) Net benefit
0
0
Complex value creation
0
$Business case = (utility CAPEX saving) + (OPEX saving) + (job creation) + (less CO2 emissions) + .... Financial
10 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Societal
Environmental
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer touch-points across sectors â&#x20AC;Ś
Traditional go-to-market approach
Energy
Transport
ILLUSTRATIVE
Water
â&#x20AC;Ś to a macro approach where purchasing decisions are coordinated and made on an aggregated level across sectors
Market approach towards megacities
Buildings Suppliers
Energy
Suppliers
Suppliers
11 Source: Quartz+Co analysis
Suppliers
Suppliers
ILLUSTRATIVE
Master planning
Transport
Water
Buildings
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
Lack of capital Cities are empowered to implement new sustainable projects but limited by access to capital
Lack of competences Competences for sustainable planning and implementation are in shortage
Competition for resources is fierce. Because of growth pressures and capital constraints, compromises are often reached to serve more interests rather than to serve more people more effectively
India case: Expected development in funding of regional projects in India 100%
Urban Local
33%
The World Bank â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
Cities in developing countries face much tougher challenges than do their counterparts in developed countries. Technical capacity is often lacking The World Bank â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
50%
Gov. Funds
57%
30%
20% PPP & ADB's
10% 2011
Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development Bank
12 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
2020
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases
Case 1: Veolia and Suez
Case 2: Toshiba
Case 3: Keppel Corp
Case 4: Siemens
Global leaders in water, French Veolia Environnement (Vivendi) and Suez Environnement have partnered on PPP water projects and have pioneered the PPP model, injecting finance into the system and driving market growth and consolidation.
The Japanese major global player Toshiba is driving some part of the Delhi Mumbai Corridor through large scale PPP projects funded by Japan Inc.
Tianjin Eco-city is sponsored by Keppel Corp from Singapore.
Siemens' new Infrastructure & Cities Sector will manage the company's global business with cities and infrastructures. The new Sector, with around 87.000 employees, will contain the Mobility and Building Technology Divisions from the Industry Sector, as well as the Power Distribution Division and Smart Grid business from the Energy Sector.
In a PPP, ownership of assets remains public and only certain functions are delegated to a private company for a specific period.
Consortium of Japanese companies (Toshiba-Tokyo Gas-NEC) have signed a MoU* on a priority ECO-city project.
* Memorandum of Understanding
13 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
The Keppel Group was entrusted to lead the Singapore private sector consortium for a bilateral co-operation project and works in close tandem with a Chinese consortium partner to guide the 50-50 joint venture â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sino-Singapore Tianjin EcoCity Investment and Development Co., Ltd. (SSTEC) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in its role as master developer of the Tianjin Eco-city.
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
Table of contents
1) Executive summary The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth • The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
p. 3
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
p. 4
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
p. 5
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
p. 6
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
p. 7
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system • To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
p. 9
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
p. 10
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
p. 11
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
p. 12
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
p. 13
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat? • Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
p. 15
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
p. 16
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
p. 17
2) Appendix
14
p. 18
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
Cleantech industry
Competence level in DK
Global market size 2015
Sample companies
Global ranking within market*
Clean water
1. 2. 3.
Grundfos Novozymes 7T
1. 2. 3.
Top 50 Top 100 Top 50
Green buildings
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Rockwool VKR Grundfos Danfoss Kamstrup
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Top Top Top Top Top
5 10 10 10 50
Onshore wind
1. 2. 3. 4.
Vestas Siemens AH industries Hydratech
1. 2. 3. 4.
Top Top Top Top
10 10 10 10
Smart grid
1. 2.
DONG Energy EnergiNet
1. 2.
Top 50 Top 50
Solar
1.
Danfoss Power Electronics
1.
Top 50
Offshore wind
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Vestas/Siemens DONG Energy A2Sea NKT Bladt
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Top Top Top Top Top
Solid waste
1. 2. 3.
DONG Energy Kommune Kemi Hårslev Industries
1. 2. 3.
Top 50 Top 50 Top 10
Bioenergy
1. 2. 3.
Babcock Novozymes DONG Energy
1. 2. 3.
Top 10 Top 10 Top 50
Clean road transport
1. 2.
Better Place Danfoss
1. 2.
Top 10 Top 20
Maritime cleantech
1. 2. 3.
Desmi Alfa Laval Aalborg AP Møller Maersk
1. 2. 3.
Top 10 Top 5 Top 5
5 5 5 10 10
* Indicative global rating in niche market, e.g. Rockwool in the insulation market or Grundfos in the water utility equipment market based on MEC Intelligence analysis
15 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
Go to Market
Value proposition
Business strategy
Strategic focus area
From ...
... to
Markets
BRIC market, Europe and North America
Mega- and large cities focus on global scale
Business models
Risk diversification and avoidance
Risk sharing/Risk management
Business cases
Stand-alone (single bottom line)
Integrated system business case (multiple bottom lines)
Innovation
Walled garden
Products
Engineering and "High end"
Scalable "mass production" developed to local needs
Partners
DIY
Partner with lead turnkey providers
Sales and marketing
"Push"
Push/pull (key opinion leaders)
Customer relations
Industrial
Institutional and industrial
16 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Open garden
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector Key considerations … • How, and in what order, should you Business address the different subsegments strategy in the market (cities/geographies)?
Value proposition
• To what extent is your stand-alone offering unique and innovative in the market in terms of other solutions from competitors and substitutes?
Go-to-market model
• How can your company best succeed in the market with the new channel needs and market logic? – As a stand-alone company only offering own products and services
Key beliefs …
"Recommendations …"
Community presence and relationships are critical to pave the way for commercial success in megacities
The right place: large cities
Megacities are demanding integrated solutions in which previously independent components and services are bundled
The right partners: leading solution providers
Local economies and societal agendas are highest priority for megacity stakeholders
The right offering: local needs and local value creation
Relations must be build with stakeholder on city level globally
Participate in PPP and Partner with leading solution/turnkey providers
– Through partnerships with other players offering more integrated solutions
Organisation al capabilities
• What are the organisational requirements needed to be able to address this new channel/market? • To what extent do your current governance and competences match the needs?
17 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Develop offering and new business models embracing complex value creation and multiple bottom lines at local level
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
Table of contents
1) Executive summary
2) Appendix Cleantech sectors
18
• Clean water
p. 19 + 20
• Green buildings
p. 21
• Onshore wind
p. 22
• Smart grid
p. 23
• Solar
p. 24
• Offshore wind
p. 25
• Solid waste
p. 26 + 27
• Bioenergy
p. 28
• Clean road transport
p. 29
• Geothermal
p. 30
The Megacity Clusters
p. 31
APPENDIX
As the largest and fastest-growing market globally, Asia dominates the water market as key developed markets mature Clean water â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX and OPEX made by Utilities, Municipalities and Industries â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions) Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
~3%
~2%
Market accessibility
High/Large Low/Small Government support %
Market accessibility
157
142
140
159
Profit opportunity
Solution attractiveness
220
Five-year market growth potential
160 North America
Europe
Market accessibility
Asia 2010
2010
2015
Profit opportunity
2015 ~5%
Government support
20
Addressable market
2010
2015
25 Government support
Africa ~5%
Solution attractiveness
~6% Five-year market growth potential
25 Market accessibility
2010 33
South America
2015
2010
2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
19 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
24
Government support Addressable market
Profit opportunity
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
~7% Profit opportunity
ESTIMATE
Addressable market
31
Australia
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
2010
2015
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
APPENDIX
The capital expenditure in the water sector is expected to grow from USD ~170 billion in 2010 to USD ~245 billion in 2015 or nearly 30-35% of the total water market Clean water â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Water and Waste Water Infrastructure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions) Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
ESTIMATE
High/Large Low/Small
~6%
~5%
Market accessibility
61
Profit opportunity
%
Profit opportunity
Solution attractiveness
85
47
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
~10%
62
48
Government support
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
North America
54
Europe
2010
2015
2010
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
Asia
2015 ~8%
Government support Addressable market
13 Five-year market growth potential
2010
2015 Government support
Africa
~9%
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
10
7
8
~8% Addressable market
2010
2015
Government support
8
South America
Addressable market
Profit opportunity
2010
2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility Profit opportunity
20 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
12
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Australia 2010
2015
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
APPENDIX
Europe is projected to be the largest market for green buildings in 2015 followed by North America and Asia â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Asia is expected to grow at almost double the rate of Europe
ESTIMATE
Green building materials â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions) Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small
~23% ~32%
Market accessibility
563 425
Profit opportunity
Profit opportunity
%
North America
~40%
Solution attractiveness
321
Five-year market growth potential
Europe
Market accessibility
2010 2015
2010 2015
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
202 107
Government support
Market accessibility
60
Profit opportunity
Asia ~42% 35
2010 2015
Government support Addressable market
Africa and Middle East
~52%
6
Government support
N.a.
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
South America
1
8
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Government support Addressable market
Australia
0
0
2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
21 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Addressable market
2010 2015
APPENDIX
Value-wise, the key onshore wind markets are large and stagnant. Growth is coming from new regions
Onshore wind â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
ESTIMATE
Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small
~1%
Market accessibility
Government support %
Market accessibility
~3% Profit opportunity
19
Profit opportunity
25
24
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
~0%*
Solution attractiveness
22 47
North America
47
Five-year market growth potential
Europe
Market accessibility
2010 2015
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Asia 2010 2015 ~25%
Government support
~31%
Addressable market
Africa
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
9
South America
2
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
1
4
Government support
~11%
Addressable market
2010 2015 Government support Addressable market
2
3
Australia 2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
* Global price-erosion of 5% p.a., based on sample analysis of key turbine manufacturers, balancing out increase in number of GW installed p.a. in Asia
22 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
Asia (China) is expected to become the predominant smart grid market by 2015 growing rapidly from 2010 to 2015 and outpacing both Europe and North America
Smart grid â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Market accessibility
High/Large Low/Small
Profit opportunity
North America
%
~31%
Solution attractiveness
71
9
4
7
Five-year market growth potential
Europe
Market accessibility
2010 2015
2010 2015
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
~22%
~11% Profit opportunity
4
Government support
19
Profit opportunity
Asia 2010 2015 NA
Government support Addressable market
~21%
Africa
Solution attractiveness
0
Government support
NA
0
Addressable market
2010 2015 Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
South America
1
2
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Government support Addressable market
0
0
2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
23 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Australia
APPENDIX
2011 was "PEAK Solar". Towards 2015 the European solar market will drop significantly while all other markets demonstrate strong growth led by North America
Solar energy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2011-2015E (USD billions)
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
High/Large
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
~-22% Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
Low/Small
82
26
Five-year market growth potential
Government support %
Market accessibility
~30%
~5%
Profit opportunity
Profit opportunity
Europe
9
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market Solution attractiveness
30 14
17 Five-year market growth potential
North America
Market accessibility
Asia 2011
2011
2015
2015
Profit opportunity
2011 NA.
Government support Addressable market
South America
0 0
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
2011 South America
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
2015
Africa
0 2011
0
Government support
~29% 2015
Government support
Australia
0 2011
1
2015
Addressable market Solution attractiveness
Addressable market
Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
24 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
2015
NA.
APPENDIX
Northern Europe is projected to maintain its status as the largest offshore wind market in 2015 and Asia, North America and South America is projected to experience rapid growth
Offshore wind â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
ESTIMATE INDICATIVE
Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small Government support
~22% Market accessibility
Market accessibility
38
~72%
Profit opportunity
Profit opportunity
~74%
14
CAGR (2012-2015)
Market accessibility
21
2010 2015
2010 2015
%
Five-year market growth potential
Europe
0
CAGR (2010-2015)
Solution attractiveness
12
North America
% Addressable market
Asia
Profit opportunity
0
2010 2015 NA.
Government support Addressable market
~60%
Africa
Solution attractiveness
0
Government support
NA.
0
Addressable market
2010 2015 Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
South America
0
2
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Government support Addressable market
0
0
2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
25 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Australia
APPENDIX
The global market for solid waste management is expected to grow from nearly USD 425 billion in 2005 to nearly USD 500 billion in 2020
ESTIMATE
Solid waste* â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX and OPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
INDICATIVE Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small
~3%
~3%
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
110
128
129
149
%
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
~4%
Profit opportunity
Solution attractiveness
184 153
Europe
North America
Government support
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
2010
2015
2010
Asia
2015
Profit opportunity
2010 ~7%
Addressable market Solution attractiveness
10
14
South America 2010
Profit opportunity
0
Government support
0
NA. Addressable market
2010 2015
Five-year market growth potential Market accessibility
2015
NA.
Government support
2015
Government support Addressable market
0
0
2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
* The water market comprises expenditure on both equipment and services. The waste market for Africa is primarily comprised of investment into the collection services and hence has not been studied. The Australian market is comprised of only 2% of the global market and hence is considered too small to be considered for the study 26 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
More than 90% of the expenditure on solid waste is in services or operations. The new investments needed in the municipal waste management sector are only a fraction of the market size amounting to nearly USD 25-35 billion annually ESTIMATE
Solid waste* 10-year investments needed by sector (percentage)
INDICATIVE Europe 100% = USD 87 billion
North America 100% = USD 45 billion
Dump Upgrade and Closure
25
33
Collection and Transfer
10
12 29
25
Mechanical and Biological Treatment
16
32
23
19
Waste to Energy
53
Collection and Transfer
10
Dump Upgrade and Closure
57 10
37
Landfill and Composting Mechanical and Biological Treatment
0
Waste to Energy
0
South America 100% = USD 16 billion*
21 8 4
Africa 100% = USD 11 billion*
* This investment size might not be realised due to lack of policy and institutional support
27 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Low/Small
%
6
23
Landfill and Composting
High/Large
43
4
0
Asia 100% = USD 86 billion
33 0 23 25 19
Australia 100% = USD 4 billion
CAGR (2010-2015)
APPENDIX
North America to be the largest bioenergy market in 2015 followed by South America and Europe â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Australia is growing rapidly
ESTIMATE
Bioenergy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
INDICATIVE Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small
~7%
Market accessibility
~5%
%
Profit opportunity
19
~10%
52 41 5
Europe 2010
2015
Market accessibility
2010
2015
Profit opportunity
~4% ~5%
Addressable market
21
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
9
2015
Government support
Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Asia
North America
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
26
Profit opportunity
2010
Government support
Market accessibility
South America 2010
Profit opportunity
Biomass electricity production Biofuel
28 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
27
0
0
2010
2015
Africa
Government support
~19% 0 Government support
2015 Addressable market
1
Addressable market Solution attractiveness
Australia 2010
2015
Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
APPENDIX
Asia and Europe are expected to become the leading EV and PHEV markets looking towards 2015 followed by North America
ESTIMATE
EV and PHEV â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
INDICATIVE Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Market accessibility
High/Large Low/Small Government support %
~94% Profit opportunity
Profit opportunity
~79%
Solution attractiveness
~72% North America
Europe
2
0
Market accessibility
2010 2015
2010 2015
Five-year market growth potential
5
0
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
Asia
Government support
6
Profit opportunity
2010 2015
NA.
Addressable market
0
Solution attractiveness
Africa
NA.
Five-year market growth potential
0
0
Government support
~73%
2010 2015 Market accessibility Profit opportunity
South America
0
0
2010 2015
~95% Charging infrastructure Global market, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
0
1
2010 2015
29 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Government support Addressable market
Addressable market
Australia
0
0
2010 2015
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
APPENDIX
Asia is poised to become the largest geothermal market in 2015 followed by North America and Europe
ESTIMATE
Geothermal â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD millions)
INDICATIVE Government support
Government support
Addressable market
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Five-year market growth potential
High/Large Low/Small Government support
~27% ~11%
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
899
~20%
336
Solution attractiveness
1.922
Five-year market growth potential
Europe
North America
Market accessibility
778
2010 2015
2010 2015
CAGR (2010-2015)
Addressable market
1.096
1.530
Profit opportunity
%
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Asia 2010 2015
NA.
~18%
Government support Addressable market
0
NA.
Market accessibility
2010 2015 South America
0
0
2010 2015
Profit opportunity
Government support Addressable market
61
Addressable market Solution attractiveness
Australia 2010 2015
Five-year market growth potential
Solution attractiveness
Market accessibility
Five-year market growth potential
Profit opportunity
Market accessibility Profit opportunity
30 Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Government support
Africa
Solution attractiveness Five-year market growth potential
142
0
APPENDIX
The top-30 megacities can be divided into six cleantech clusters with the Great Turks growing at the same pace as Great BRIC+
Segment
1
Rapid urbanisation
2
Indian megagrowth
3
4
Cities Lagos Karaci Jakarta Wuhan Chongqing Delhi Mumbai Kolkotta
Wealth creators
New York Beijing Tokyo Shanghai London Seoul
Great BRIC+
Shenzen Sao Paolo Hong Kong Moscow Mexico City Bangkok Tianjin Guangzhou Hangzhou Bangalore
5
Great Turks
Istanbul Izmir
6
American Hotspots
Los Angeles Houston Chicago Washington
Top-30 absolute GDP growth, 2010-2020 (USD billions)
0
50
100
150
200
Top-30 absolute population growth, 2010-2020 (103)
250
Tokyo New York London Shanghai Mumbai Delhi Beijing Seoul Sao Paolo Guangzhou Los Angeles Shenzhen Mexico Chicago Tianjin Kolkata Moscow Istanbul Bangkok Washington Chongqing Hong Kong Houston Jakarta Hangzhou Bangalore Karachi Izmir Wuhan Lagos
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way
31 Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
0 Tokyo New York London Shanghai Mumbai Delhi Beijing Seoul Sao Guangzhou Los Angeles Shenzhen Mexico Chicago Tianjin Kolkata Moscow Istanbul Bangkok Washington Chongqing Hong Houston Jakarta Hangzhou Bangalore Karachi Izmir Wuhan Lagos
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000 10.000
1.069 579 463 1.204 5.768 9.259 1.045 1.226 2.283 494 526 2.592 2.266 790 818 2.824 659 2.581 1.201 616 4.539 723 1.060 8.779 1.442 2.439 7.405 2.152 2.723 5.985