National Weather Service: temps above normal; Almanac: the ‘BRRR!’ is back Winter weather pros differ on city forecast

by Michael Gannon Senior News Editor

Can $6.8 billion, some of the most advanced technology and finest scientific minds in the federal government top the wisdom of the ages when it comes to longrange winter weather forecasting?

The question is asked every year in a rivalry that dates back to 1870 when the United States Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service, was formed, 52 years after the Farmers’ Almanac first began publishing its findings on the onset of winter.

This year, there is some professional disagreement over the winter that begins on Dec. 21.

In its annual U.S. Winter Outlook, published Oct. 19, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the NWS, predicted warmer, above-normal temperatures in the New York City region, with the possibility of seasonal precipitation up to 40 percent higher than average. The nine-page report, complete with full-color maps and charts, can be found online at bit.ly/470R2st.

But Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, based in Lewiston, Maine, told the Chronicle in a recent interview that her experts have a different — and colder — projection for the Metropolitan area.

“You could have a polar-coaster,” she said. And both sources say not to forget El Niño, the naturally recurring climate condition that periodically pushes more warm water toward the Pacific coast, which is coming this year and is expected to influence weather patterns.

“After last winter in New You City, which was nothing exciting ... we’re saying the ‘BRRR!” is back, and by that we mean it’s going to seem a little bit — or a lot — more like winter than last year,” Duncn said.

“For your area, we’re seeing that you can probably expect a lot more cold as well as more wintery precipitation,” she added. “Which could mean rain, sleet and snow to contend with. The summary of your area is frosty, flaky and slushy. So it does look like the cold is coming back.”

NOAA’s report says otherwise.

“Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West,” it reads.

The orange band on the map of the United States signifying higher temperatures in the northern tier extends into the New York City region.

But NOAA’s map for predicted rain and snowfall includes the city in a green band associated with the Mid-Atlantic, rather than the northern tier region.

And the Mid-Atlantic, according to a map on page 4 of the report, says the New York metropolitan area could have precipitation up to 40 percent more than normal.

“From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower Mid-Atlantic,” the report states.

Duncan says the Almanac concurs.

“While winter precipitation is expected to increase, we’re expecting nothing as for continued on page 30