I Want It All! COVID-19 Vaccine Nationalism

By: Cassandra van Drunen

Author H.G. Wells once said that “Our true nationality is mankind”. Many countries globally appear to not be taking this sentiment to heart. Over the past few months, ‘vaccine nationalism’ has become a prevalent problem with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic. This ‘vaccine nationalism’ can be defined as countries fighting to secure vaccines for themselves, no matter the cost for others. A selection of wealthy countries including the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and Canada have reserved over half of the vaccine supply, while only representing about 13 percent of the global population, according to Oxfam. On the other side, COVAX attempts to fight this by requesting funds for wealthier countries so that COVID-19 vaccines can be supplied to countries that need them. This begs the question, is vaccine nationalism justifiable? This question seems to require looking through both a public health lens as well as a political one.

To analyze the current problem, let’s review a problem of a pandemic of the past. Just slightly over 10 years ago, the H1N1 influenza pandemic swept the globe. Over the course of 7 months, a vaccine was developed, however, the high-income countries of the planet negotiated large advance orders. This meant that the low and middle-income countries had less access to the vaccine. The distribution of the H1N1 vaccine was not based on the risk of transmission, but who made the best deal. As we have surpassed 1 million deaths from the pandemic, should the possible transmissions and deaths really be put at risk?

When using a political lens, it can be seen as nearly impossible to provide for other countries before themselves. Governments worldwide are facing pressure from all sides to develop a vaccine quickly. Across the globe, over 320 vaccines are under development. However, some countries are even facing challenges on the homefront. A French pharmaceutical company named Sanofi working on a cure announced this summer that the US would be the first country to receive its vaccine. After being called out by French President Emmanuel Macron, Sanofi had to retract this statement. This presents another angle within vaccine nationalism: pharmaceutical companies and the governments whose borders within they fall.

While the political side has its reasoning for being ‘greedy’ when it comes to vaccines, what does the science suggest is best? A recent study conducted by American and Italian scientists entitled “Estimating the effect of cooperative versus uncooperative strategies of COVID-19 vaccine allocation: a modelling study” has revealed some shocking statistical information. In short, the team tested ways of allocating the vaccines which they called “Uncooperative Allocation”, where the first 2 billion doses were distributed to specific countries first (shown below) and “Cooperative Allocation”, where the first 2 billion doses were distributed proportionally to the populations of all the countries.

The most shocking part of the outcome of this model was that there were an estimated 28 percent more deaths when the uncooperative allocation was used (figure shown below).

This study alone shows the benefits of cooperation and the detriments of vaccine nationalism.

The most effective way to evenly distribute the vaccines is through an initiative developed by the World Health Organization entitled COVAX. The aim of COVAX is to help ensure that vaccines reach all areas of the world, regardless of how wealthy they are. On September 25th, Canada committed $220 million CAD to the COVAX initiative, bringing the total contribution to COVAX up to $920 million CAD. While this amount seems large, it has been estimated that COVAX will require 2 billion by December to reach its goal of providing vaccines to over 90 eligible poorer countries that are unable to access them on their own.

After considering both the political and scientific sides of the debate of vaccine nationalism, science and public health facts outweigh the political reasonings and that vaccines should not be hoarded by wealthy countries. The question that follows is, “What can Canada do?”. As stated earlier, while Canada has contributed greatly to the COVAX initiative already, further donations to the cause in addition to encouraging other countries to contribute would be greatly beneficial to help slow the spread of the coronavirus and keep as many people safe as possible. The call for cooperation will be imperative to help survive this pandemic together. While the wealthier countries participate in vaccine nationalism, Caribbean leaders call for a united front against this pandemic, including the Prime Minister of Saint Kitts and Nevis who summarized his view for an equitable vaccine best: “Instead of nationalism, we need global cooperation in the fight to defeat COVID-19”.