The Observer XIV.III - Asian Pivot

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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Dear Readers, Welcome to the third issue of Volume XIV. This issue’s theme is “Asian Pivot” and offers writers the opportunity to anchor their topic in the broadly defined region of ‘Asia’. Inspired by pundits’ characterization of Barack Obama’s foreign policy, the Observer is likewise renewing its engagement with this unique region. By deepening readers knowledge of the region, this issue instills an appreciation for the cultural, political, and economic nuances of this particular square of the globe. This thematic focus allows writers to explore a variety of issues and the particularities of how they manifest within, or pertain to, the very large region of Asia. It is hoped that this issue sparks greater introspective regional analysis, as well as cross-regional comparison more broadly. Additionally, I would like to thank Charlotte Smith for her artistic talents featured on our cover, and Art Vijayaratnam for her thoughtful layout design seen between the following pages. In this issue you will find a variety of articles that speak to the economic, social and political uniqueness of Asia. Including, Gavrilo Randjelouc who explores the demographic shifts in Japan, Kristen Johnson looks at recent Japanese security dilemmas, and Mae-Lin DeLange considers the shaping of Asian beauty standards and its impact on regional and global commerce. Given the new era of Chinese regional hegemony, our writers also cover a variety of issues relating to China. These include Emily Robertson and her look at Sino-Australian diplomatic and economic relations, Alex Bernst and Chinese investment in Africa, and Ryan Anderson looks at American foreign policy towards China in the Trump age. Others include Rebecca Frost’s take on poverty in rural China, Stephanie Repic looks at issues within the South China Sea and American intervention there, and Jessica Knezy considers the rise of China through the lenses of globalization and economic development. Other salient topics that are covered include Violence against Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar by Jacob Ahean, crop burning in Northern India and its environmental consequences by Sinead O’Hara, the population rivalry between India and China by Sean Stead-Fecser, what to make of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reforms and purges by Harrison Giovannetti, youth voter turnout and engagement in Malaysia by Cassandra Preece, the relationship between women’s rights and sexual abuse in Pakistan by Xiyuan Chen, and transnational crime in South East Asia by Cade Cowan. I hope that together this issue provides some greater insight into the nuances of Asia, and that it facilitates thoughtful reflection about this region and the world more broadly. Sincerely,

Kelley Humber Print Editor-in-Chief Political Studies ‘18

Nicole Toole Online Editor-in-Chief Political and Global Development Studies ‘18

To view online articles and past issues please visit our website: www.theobserver-qiaa.org 2

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

Alex Bernst

“Chinese Investment in Africa”

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Jacob Ahearn

“The Ongoing Conflict in Myanmar”

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Sean Stead-Fecser

“China and India’s Population”

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Sinead O’Hara

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Stephanie Repic

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Rebecca Frost

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Xiyuan Chen

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“Contentious Waters and Unlimited Sphere of American Influence” “Frost Boy: Rural Poverty in China” “Zainab Ansari, Women, and Sexual Abuse in Pakistan”

Harrison Giovannetti “The Enlightened Despot: Mohammed bin Salman and the Future of Saudi Arabia”

Kristen Johnson

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“Burning Crops and Slashing Green Initiatives”

Ryan Anderson

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“Stuck in the Middle: How Japan is Dealing With Potential Nuclear War” “Trump, Offensive Realism, and the Rise of China”

Cassandra Preece

“Youth disconnected?: Youth Turnout and Political Engagement in Malaysia Ahead of 2018 Election”

Gavrilo Randjelovic

“To Boldly Go: A Nation’s Venture into Demographic Disaster”

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Cade Cowan “The Yakuza and Transnational Crime in South East Asia”

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Jessica Knezy

“Globalization via Economic Development: China as a Major Player”

Mae-Lin DeLange

“Beauty Standards: Making International Business Boom or Bust?”

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Emily Robertson “Chinese Foreign Intervention in the Australian Political Arena” *There was a misprint of Vurksha Vakeeswaran article’s “Innovation Meets Healthcare: The Cultivation of Digital Health Under President Obama“ in our last issue 14.2 ‘Tech In a Changing Socitey’. The proper version of this article can be found in the online version.

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Chinese Investment in Africa By: Alex Bernst Throughout the past several decades, countries within Africa have experienced countless attempts at development. Issues with corruption, human rights, and extremist groups have often deterred Western nations from providing consistent aid streams to the continent. Until a few years ago, that could have presented a large problem for African states. But China is willing to tread where others will not. It has begun offering a ‘no strings attached’ aid policy, doling out loans and investing in infrastructure and resource production; seemingly picking up where Western countries left off. For the most part, China’s presence in Africa is no mystery. The rapid growth of China’s middle class and manufacturing sector has driven it’s need for natural resources. China imports a wide array of resources, from iron and copper, to lumber and oil. In exchange, African countries receive, among other things, manufactured goods, billions of dollars in loans, and infrastructure construction. From 2000 to 2014, the value of trade between the country and the continent grew from $10 billion to $220 billion, an increase of 2000%. The engagement has generated mixed responses. Critics are quick to remind us that Chinese-funded infrastructure projects are often created by Chinese workers and firms rather than those from the relevant African community. Additionally, Chinese manufactured goods have flooded the African market. Pushing out local producers

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who find that they are unable to compete with the inexpensive products. Despite these effects, the African response to the Chinese presence is still a favourable one. An Afrobarometer survey showed that 63% of Africans said that China has had a positive influence on their country. Countries like Mali, Niger, and Liberia were exceptionally pleased with the Chinese presence, with 92%, 84%, and 81% reporting positive influences, respectively. As with many cross-border interactions, parties may have ulterior motives. The reason for China’s enormous shift into Africa can be diplomatic, not just economic. Yong Deng, an Associate Professor at the United States Naval Academy, shared his thoughts with the Harvard Political Review, stating, “China feels that it is entitled to a Great Power status, so maintaining that in a global world order is always a long-term foreign policy goal.” He also shared, “In terms of great power rise… Africa carries an enormous amount of diplomatic weight in [shifting] China’s diplomatic and political influence away from U.S., Western dominated world order.” In fact, on August 1st, 2017, China officially opened its first overseas military base on the coast of Djibouti. While undoubtedly valuable in that it offers China access to the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, it also sends a message to the United States. China’s new base is located only 16 kilometers away from AFRICOM (United States Africa Com-

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mand), the U.S.’s largest African military base. Aid has also been a strategic resource for China. There has been a measurable relationship between the amount of aid given to a country and that country’s support for China’s foreign policy objectives. AidData, a research lab at the College of William & Mary, calculated that for every 10% increase in United Nations voting support given, China increases its aid by 86%. This is a strategy that seems to be working. As it stands, China has little to no long-term strategy for its economic and political goals in Africa. The country lacks the military capacity to protect its citizens and interests in the continent. As of 2014, there were over 1 million Chinese nationals living in Africa, and that number has undoubtedly grown since then. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, also pledged $60 billion in investments to African states. Those are incredible volumes, which make them difficult for Beijing to monitor. The construction of the Djibouti base is one step the Chinese government has taken towards improving security, but with a growing population and investment base, greater military presence is likely required.

China is also facing reputational challenges by making investments that could destabilize existing governmental institutions throughout the continent. It has made several investments in countries facing governance issues. This could be due to a difference in risk evaluation compared to Western nations, or disregard for risks altogether, but experts agree that investments in these nations are unlikely to generate expected returns. As Western nations withdrew aid and capital from Africa after years of failed projects, China sensed an opportunity. A chance to augment its challenge to the United States’ world leader status, earn support in major geopolitical decisions, and improve its economic situation at home. New ventures are not without risk. The Chinese face an uphill battle with regards to national unrest in many countries and criticism from across the pond. Despite the obstacles, both China and Africa will undoubtedly benefit from this partnership. The growth of both areas can be sustained as China is seeing more resource imports and Africa has seen infrastructural improvements. Most importantly, the relationship helps China moves ever closer to the U.S’s world leader throne.

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The Ongoing Conflict in Myanmar The Rohingya Refugee Crisis and the Roots of the Ethnic and Religious Violence By: Jacob Ahearn

For decades, there has been widespread discrimination and persecution of the Muslim minority by the predominantly Buddhist population in Myanmar. From March 20th-22nd 2013, anti-Muslim riots in Meiktila, Myanmar left 40 people dead. Significantly more were injured, and houses, Islamic schools and mosques were destroyed. In the western Rakhine state in 2012, there was an outbreak of communal violence that displaced thousands of Rohingya, forcing them to live in deteriorating camps. This type of violence by Buddhist adherents is surprising as Buddhism is typically regarded as a peaceful religion. However, the increasing number of Muslims in Myanmar has produced negative attitudes towards the minority group. Animosity reached a boiling point in August 2017. Over 626,000 Rohingya, half the population of Rakhine State, were driven out of the country by Myanmar security forces and forced to flee to bordering countries. Defined as an ethnic cleansing by the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, there have been reports by refugees of widespread rape, the killing of children, and various other atrocities. The UN’s special representative dealing with sexual violence in conflict, Pramila Patten, stated to the UN’s Human Rights panel that according to reports from Rohingya refugees,“the

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most heartbreaking and horrific accounts of sexual atrocities” had been occurring, including reports of gang rapes. According to reports, many girls died while being raped by groups of men. These horrific acts were reportedly committed out of ethnic and religious hatred by Myanmar’s Buddhist majority security forces. Al-Hussein stated that Myanmar security forces “deliberately and massively targeted civilians” and argued that the situation warranted an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). He went as far as to make reference to elements of genocide occuring in the region, with genocide being defined as an act “aimed at destroying in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group.” This is not conclusive however, as Myanmar has barred international actors’ access within their borders and therefore disallowed a substantive assessment of conditions within the country to be made. The magnitude of the cruelty reported by refugees and the displacement of the Rohingya people is nevertheless a humanitarian crisis in the Asian Pacific that is currently unparalleled. The Rohingya are stuck in a state of limbo, with religious and ethnically based hatred driving them from their homes.With limited viable options for refuge, they are in desperate need of international aid.

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While this crisis has received international attention, very little has been done by international actors. This is due to the fact that Myanmar has given no concessions in cooperating with the international community. Myanmar officials have argued that the media is oblivious to the truth, and they argue that the media is solely reporting a one-sided humanitarian crisis rather than understanding the context of the situation. Moreover, a Special Myanmar Government Committee stated that there is no evidence of atrocities occurring and in response to allegations of murder and rape, the government of Myanmar claims these are “false” and “distorted.” Htin Lynn, Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, says that Myanmar is working with Bangladesh to reintegrate refugees, however, according to the UN the environment to reintegrate refugees does not exist. The Myanmar government has said that they are prepared to work with the UN in mitigating the crisis, yet many aid organizations, besides the International Red Cross and the World Food Program, are still restricted from entering Rakhine.

“While this crisis has received international attention, very little has been done by international actors. This is due to the fact that Myanmar has given no concessions in cooperating with the international community. “

In the wake of this conflict, Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar, has been criticized for failing to help the Rohingya Muslims or even denounce the atrocities taking place. Along with the Myanmar government, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been under scrutiny due to inaction. ASEAN has a philosophy that the ten countries within the association do not meddle in each other’s internal affairs, but this has been criticized. Thailand’s “The Nation” described it as “an accessory to murder and mayhem.” Bordering countries have been under especial criticism for sending fleeing Rohingya back to Myanmar. According to Amnesty International, in Bangladesh, which borders the Rakhine state, “hundreds of fleeing Rohingya have been detained and forcibly returned to an uncertain fate”, The UN has called for a more extensive investigation and for humanitarian aid in the wake of what they have coined as crimes against humanity, however, there has been very minimal action from international or regional actors. The situation in Myanmar is very complex. In Myanmar’s western Rakhine state, there was a population of 1 million Muslim Rohingya before the refugee crisis. Racial

conflict has consistently loomed large in the region for decades, driven by fears that the Buddhist population will become overwhelmed by the rapid growth in the Muslim population. In fact, racial conflict “actually refers to the demographic control of specific ethnic groups, religions or social classes, with an objective to keep those groups’ minority status intact,” according to Ahmad Syarif Al Syechabubakar. This conflict arguably began from residue left over by colonial structures. During colonial times, demographics were used as an instrument to maintain social order and many of these systems remain intact and inform prejudice towards specific ethnic and religious groups today. In Myanmar specifically, “a social-geographical map created by the British, including racial terms” is currently being used. Religious and ethically fueled hate is not a transient phenomenon that ended with colonialism. It is pervasive and has a lasting effect. These effects can explain negative attitudes towards social and political transformations. According to Ahmad Syarif Al Syechabubakar, “the Muslim-Buddhist conflict in Myanmar peaked when the country was changing its political landscape by allowing the opposition to participate in the national election.” Concerns regarding demographic shifts and a subsequent fear of loss of culture, tradition, political control and general way of life often translates into violence. To illustrate this, if the displaced Muslim Rohingya refugees were sent back to Rakhine in Myanmar, their numbers would be larger than that of the Buddhist Rakhine people. While Buddhism had been the largest religion in the world only a century prior to today, it is now very vulnerable. Other religions, especially Islam, are having large increases in their number of adherents. This creates a climate conducive to religious and ethnic strife. There lies the possibility that the issue will remain unsolved. The hatred that underlies the conflict runs deep and might prove repatriation to be a fruitless endeavor. However, international actors, such as transnational organizations, human rights organizations and government entities should be doing more to intervene in the conflict, in any type of capacity. At the very least, they should be ensuring that neighbouring borders are open, although monitored. Hence, rather than being forced to return to the conflict, refugees can find a temporary safe haven. At least until a permanent solution is put into place for relocating or repatriating these displaced Rohingya people.

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China and India’s Population: Why it Matters By: Sean Stead-Fecser India has recently controversially been reported to have a larger population than China. Mr.Yi, a medical expert and population researcher at the University of Wisconsin, explained at a meeting at Peking University that China’s real population may be 1.29 billion people, 90 million fewer than the government’s estimate of 1.38 billion in 2016. This is from his claims that there were telltale inconsistencies among birthrate, hospital and school statistics. Meanwhile India’s current population stands at 1.33 billion, according the United Nations. Mr.Yi’s claims that India’s population is bigger than China’s have not been posted in a academic peer reviewed journal or come from a prestige institution such as the UN, so his claims have been contested. This argument reflects a bigger problem within China, regarding population decline and a shrinking economy. As a result of the one child policy, which was lifted in 2015, many women in China are found to have less desire to have more than one child. This can be seen in China’s low birthrate. Mr.Yi argues that China could encounter a demographic stagnation worse than Japan. He explains that “Even if family planning stopped, habits die hard. Overall, our structure is where Japan was in 1992, and our

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economic waning will be a long-term trend.” He went on to say that China’s birth rate will determine the size of the workforce sustaining its economy, and the data indicated that stagnation could occur in coming decades. With the number of people aged 60 or above increasing to a 25% from 16% in 2015, many are worried about who will support the aging population and the future of the Chinese economy. The Chinese Government is realizing the effect of the one child policy on its low birthrate, and has implemented a two-child policy. In a report outlining population policies until 2030, their Government outlined that they will adopt measures to encourage families to have more than one child by “taxation, child raising, education, social security and housing”. Although, they did not specify exactly what policies they were going to place to achieve this. On the contrary side, India is seeing the world’s largest population growth; their population increasing by 15 million a year. India is expected to officially pass China as the most populous country in 2024. This is due in part to a lack of contraceptives. In the past eight years, contraceptive use fell by almost 35 percent, as abortions and use of emergency pills doubled. Condom use is very low; less

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than 6% among those who use contraceptives. Poonam Muttreja, director of the Population Foundation of India is trying to push more Indians to use condoms, as they are one of the few methods of birth control which prevent HIV and unwanted pregnancies, with no side effects. India’s population is very young as a result of their high birth rate. The median age in India is 27, while in China it is 38. Children account for one-third of the entire population in India, while in China they only account for onefifth. With their large youth population, India will be more equipped to handle their population aging and keep their economy on the rise. While India’s population is currently very young, the number of children they are having is falling. The fertility rate has lowered down to 2.3 children per woman, and is expected to lower to the replacement rate (2.1) by 2025. While India is expected to be the world’s most populous state, their fertility rate is falling to a more sustainable level for the country. Although China is expected to have the world’s largest economy by 2040, India is expected to pass Japan as the world’s third largest economy. While India is expected to have the biggest workforce in the world, if living standards are to rise, the workforce has to be educated and employed. Much of the population growth in India is in the poorer regions where education is still relatively weak. UN figures show that India has the largest amount of illiterate adults in the world at 287 million. Literacy is on the rise in India, having reached 63% in 2006. But if India wants to maintain a powerful economy, they need to put an empha-

sis on education, especially in the poorer regions of the country. They hold 37% of the world’s illiterate population and they need to take actions to rectify this. One increasing issue as India’s economy rises is their growing inequality. While India does maintain a relatively large middle class, many Indians struggle to support themselves and their families. 25% of Indians live on less than 2 dollars per day and they hold 1 in 3 of the global population living in poverty. Over 30% of Indians from age 15-30 are without employment which is three times the rate of China. Making matters worse, 200 million people are expected to enter the workforce in the next 20 years. The Indian government needs to take action against inequality as their economy and population continues to rise. As China’s population and economy grows, so does that of India’s - though according to Mr.Yi, it already has. As China continues on its path to becoming one of the most powerful states in the world, it is important to understand that India is following behind it. India’s economy may be weaker, but as their population continues to develop, so does their economic potential. China’s low birth rate means trouble for the future of their country, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with the effect of their one child policy and make strides to encourage families to have more children. As India’s population grows and eventually outgrow China’s, it is important that India places an emphasis on education to bring their population out of poverty and create jobs for the growing youth.

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Burning Crops and Slashing Green Initiatives Urban Versus Rural Demands in Northern India By: Sinead O’Hara

In New Delhi, India’s capital, breathing the air has been likened to smoking fifty cigarettes in a day. The city has been experiencing extreme air pollution that has been an ongoing issue since 2010. Recently, it has been frequently reaching crisis levels. This crisis stems from rapid urbanization, astonishing population density, and stark differences between rural and urban demands within the country. The air pollution crisis has developed in its severity due to the traditional agricultural technique called “slash and burn.” The technique involves the setting of fire to rice fields by the farmers in the states of Punjab and Haryana. Farmers are burning most of the leftover crop to make room to plant their winter wheat crop. The “slash and burn” practice has been around for thousands of years. It saves time, money, and is beneficial to the growing crop. The burning process occurs twice a year, with the traditional period from November to December, and more recently, through April to May. This practice has intensified New Delhi’s air pollution issue, turning it into a crisis. It has wreaked havoc on public health, placing the entire city at risk. “Slash and burn” is practiced by hundreds of thousands of farmers in the states of Punjab and Haryana, where the majority of India’s wheat and rice is farmed. Although the burning is not happening in New Delhi, the smoke from crop residue travels to the city, causing a rise in air pollu-

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tion. The smoke rising from the fire can contain thousands of compounds, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. This is incredibly harmful. The capital is ten times more polluted than large cities in the developed world. Air pollution is primarily measured in terms of three criteria pollutants: nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and fine particulate matter. According to the World Health Organization (WHO)’s database in 2014, Delhi is the most polluted city in the world in terms of fine particulate matter PM2.5 levels. These particles are extremely dangerous to lungs as they are small enough to penetrate them and cause internal damage. Polluted air is incredibly damaging to the people who breathe it in, especially with levels as high as is seen in New Delhi, at almost twenty times the guideline value prescribed by the WHO in 2013. Air quality has only worsened since then. Those living in New Delhi are suffering immensely. Some of the potential health consequences include cardiovascular disease, respiratory ailments, asthma, and damage to the central nervous system. It is gravely important to public health to negate this issue. In New Delhi there have been an astonishing amount of premature deaths. Specifically, it causes around 7,350 to 16,200 premature deaths per year, and cuts life expectancy by six years. For children, exposure to the air even for a few hours

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can cause the muscles in the throat and chest to spasm. Pediatricians have been advising patients to leave the city, but this is not a viable option for everyone. Delhi has begun to fast-track some clean air initiatives from 2020 in order to be proactive with the issue. On the other hand, farmers state that the method is incredibly cost efficient, and reaps great ecological benefit to their crops. It enables farmers to clear old crop, return nutrients to the soil, and prepare the ground for a new growing season. Another reason why the slash and burn method is so widely used is its time efficiency. Farmers are caught in a serious time crunch, they have to harvest rice and cultivate wheat in a space of ten or fifteen days. Most farmers have stated that they would be willing to switch to a sustainable alternative but cannot due to financial constraints. They understand the urgency of the issue, but have a duty to protect their livelihoods. There are proposed solutions, such as a seeder that can be mounted on a tractor and used to plant wheat without the need to get rid of the of the leftover straw, but the cost of such a machine is steep at around $1,900. Stated by Bhure Lal, the chairman of the Environmental Pollution Authority, the government is offering to pay half the cost. The issue is that they only have enough money for machinery for a few farmers. The funds are insufficient to

make a dent in the pollution. Another proposed solution is selling the straw that would usually be burned, but there is a very small market. This means that the government essentially has made no viable solution to stop crop burning, despite it being punishable under the Air Act since 1991. The “slash and burn� practice is highly unsustainable, and is immediately harming populations. The health and environmental costs are enormous, and must be mitigated. As most farmers would, seemingly, be willing to switch from slash and burn to sustainable alternatives, perhaps aid could help. There is currently no clear way for individuals or organizations to assist in funding. Although aid has become a loaded term, if it is directed towards a specific solution it would be beneficial. A form of aid should be directed to this cause since it is a straight-forward, immediate, and necessary means of negating air pollution and public health risk.

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Contentious Waters and the Unlimited Sphere of American Influence By: Stephanie Repic

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Natural resources and borders are the source of conflict in many regions that are resource abundant, necessitating military presence to preserve economic and territorial opportunities. The South China Sea (SCS), covering 648,000 square-miles of the Pacific Ocean and bordering the Strait of Malacca to the Strait of Taiwan, is a promising area when it comes to natural resources such as oil and natural gas. Given trade ties, many countries feel entitled to these resources and the passageways within the South China Sea. Given the historical significance of these borders, claims to the land and water have been challenged by China and Taiwan. These claims do not sway the enforced exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that have been put forth by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS). However, UNCLOS does not assist in effective debates of sovereignty over these waters. As Scott (2012) states in his article, Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea; “the politics often overshadow the legal issues”. This is exactly what UNCLOS was – a legal attempt to remedy the contested waters that instead, effectively created larger political issues amongst the SCS countries. This is where the United States intervenes to act as a mediator. Typically, the United States would be able to impose further regulatory measures over states like China via conglomerates such as the United Nations, but these sanctions would be unable to address issues of historical contestation. Instead, the U.S. confronts this issue through alliances with countries that are geographically affected in the situation such as Vietnam. Vietnam has the historical basis to question the claims China has proposed, supplying legitimate documentation to the country’s claims to the contested land. Allying with a country like Vietnam strengthens the U.S.’ claims, its efforts to militarize the SCS, and its plan to countervail China. In turn, Vietnam relies on the United States to assist and act as its partner with the SCS deliberations, economic assistance, and military contributions as they supply the historical backup. The South China Sea is a priority for the United States due to its passages for shipping lanes to allied countries such as Japan and South Korea – prominent trade and economic partners for the U.S. In relation to the SCS, the allied forces allow for greater maritime stability and economic expansion, even though China is exceptionally reluctant for U.S. and international involvement. Through these transatlantic alliances, the U.S. also maintains and cultivates a stronger relationship with Japan and South Korea. The United States’ national security interests are at the forefront of this preventative international effort. Increased reinforcements and a greater military presence establishes a U.S. presence that may aim to counterbalance the area, but in reality, increases tension with China. On the eve of the release of the 2018 U.S. National Security Strategy, there came a warning from Beijing for the United States: “The more you send the more reinforcements we will prepare”. These two global powers will not back down. The U.S works towards coalitions, and shares responses and actions with other countries in order to rem-

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edy challenges, such as in the case of the South Asia Sea and China. This also works to their advantage for establishing operational norms and rules internationally. This is not uncommon to the U.S. as it continues to set international standards and regulations to ensure that its dominance is maintained. Tensions continue to increase between the United States and China in regard to the South China Sea situation due to China’s obstinate resistance to laws and international assistance aimed at defusing conflict. America’s presence portrays an international security strategy of diplomacy that provides a counterbalancing effort between countries - though the national interests of the U.S. are still evident.

“American national interests are at the forefront of the South China Sea situation, especially as China continues to send naval patrols.”

American national interests are at the forefront of the SCS situation, especially as China continues to send naval patrols. The U.S. claims that the ships and planes they send are to ensure accessibility to necessary shipping trade routes and air paths. Freedom of navigation is the primary reason behind the U.S.’ current defense of the SCS area, yet there is a persistent back-and-forth power struggle between the U.S. and China. China continuously denies offers to negotiate the contested waters with the countries involved and disobeys UN sanctions and America’s cherished liberal rules-based order, which demonstrates the country’s discontent and confusion with the United States’ intervention. Both countries are exerting their power to display dominance in fear of each other’s influence rising. In reality, a peaceful negotiation between these great economic powers would benefit the stability and peace of the South China Sea.

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Frost Boy and China’s Rural Poverty Problem By: Rebecca Frost

In early January 2018, a photo of a young boy with frozen hair emerged from several major Western media outlets. The boy’s hair had frozen on his long walk to school in rural China. Although the boy’s frosty hair looks adorable, it is the result of the stark inequalities between rural and urban children in China. Despite high rates of urbanization, approximately 43% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas. More than 70 million people in rural China live on less than $1 per day and rural regions are, in general, substantially poorer than urban areas. While wealth in China has ballooned over the last few decades, rural poverty persists. China’s Gini coefficient, a widely used measure has of income inequality, has increased from 0.3 in the mid-1980s to 0.46 in 2015 according to the Chinese government. A Gini coefficient of zero represents perfect income equality, while a Gini coefficient of 1 represent extreme inequality. Some researchers estimate that inequality is higher than the state figure of 0.46 suggests. Researchers at the University of Michigan estimate that China’s Gini coefficient is in the range of 0.53-0.55, economists at Southwest University of Finance and Economics in China have estimated China’s current Gini coefficient to be approximately 0.6, while researchers from Beijing Normal University calculated the figure to be as high as 0.739 in 2010. Children in rural China have far fewer advantag-

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es than their urban counterparts. Children in rural schools also frequently suffer from malnutrition. As many as 1 in 5 children in rural villages live with grandparents because their parents have gone to seek work in cities. Falling birth rates have resulted in the closure of many smaller rural schools. Many children must walk long distances over harsh terrain to get to school; this is what lead to the boy’s icy hair, he walked a distance of 4.5km through mountains to get to school that morning. Boarding schools were pitched by officials as a way to combat long treks to school. Unfortunately, boarding schools are often alleged to deliver a low quality of education, offer students poor living conditions, and provide inadequate quantities of food. In some studies, children in boarding school were found to be shorter on average than their day-school counterparts, a finding attributed to the poor nutrition the children receive. Migrating to the city often provides limited hope for families. Migrants from rural areas are often treated like second class citizens and are barred from enrolling their children in the higher quality publics schools available to urban families. Dropout rates are very high among rural students relative to their urban counterparts. Only 10% of rural students stay in school past the 9 years of compulsory education mandated by the Chinese government, while 70% of

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urban students progress beyond the mandatory 9 years. Cognitive tests also reveal troubling discrepancies. One study found that more than half of eighth graders attending school in rural areas of China had IQ scores deemed by researchers to be a barrier to keeping pace with the curriculum. In contrast, only 15% of eighth graders in the urban areas studied were found to have comparably low IQ test results. The prevalence of poverty in rural China, and the stark differences between the educational opportunities offered to rural and urban children stands in stark contrast to China’s narrative of itself. In his speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Chinese president Xi Jinping declared “The Chinese nation … has stood up, grown rich, and become strong – and it now embraces the brilliant prospects of rejuvenation … It will be an era that sees China moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind.”

President Xi’s speech paints China as a wealthy nation advancing rapidly toward a central role on the world stage. While this image of China is by no means uncritically accepted by the international community, it does factor in to how the world views China. Stories of China’s increasing wealth and economic success feature prominently in the current political landscape. Criticisms of China tend to focus on human rights abuses and censorship. For example, Justin Trudeau said that he brought up human rights issues during his most recent visit to China, but he seems to have made no mention of the terrible conditions faced by millions of rural Chinese. Children walking through mountains on empty stomachs to get to school is not an image that readily comes to mind when someone mentions China. But that does not diminish its significance. Global perceptions on China must not ignore the prevalence of rural poverty.

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Zainab Ansari, Women and Sexual Abuse in Pakistan By: Xiyuan Chen

“It is a war, not a battle. We need to know our body, we need to become OK start living like regular human beings who have rights and a say in everything. Most importantly, women should start giving information to their daughters and not go ‘hush hush’ about it. It is about time now.” -- Fouzia Saeed Pakistani civil society activist

At the beginning of January 2018, Zainab Ansari, a 7-year-old Pakistani girl, was raped and killed in her hometown of Kasur, in eastern Pakistan. Her body was found in a garbage pile close to her home, with clear signs of being strangled and brutally assaulted before death. This is, to some extent, not surprising considering the fact that Kasur was at the center of a child sexual abuse scandal. In 2015, Kasur became notorious for child pornography made by a gang of twenty-five men who managed to blackmail at least 280 families in Kasur, using their children. In Pakistan, at least 1,764 cases of child abuse took place in the first half of 2017 alone, and among them there was at least 62 cases of children were sexually abused and murdered. What is worse, in most cases these perpetrators were acquaintances, and therefore in a position of trust to these children. These crimes tend to disproportionately affect young girls. Gender inequality continue to be a serious problem in Pakistan as girls are exposed to the danger of early marriage, reproductive morbidity, complications, mortality and violence at an early age. Girls who have

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been raped are regarded as unchaste and whose honor has been taken away, and decreased the probability of finding families that are willing to take them as daughtersin-law. Hence, most families, including the victims themselves, feel ashamed after being raped and try to hide the fact from everyone else. In most cases, the public usually blames the victims and the victims’ families for not being careful enough, or religious enough. Females are deemed to be inferior to males and are sometimes viewed as an “economic burdens” for the family. Girls see no hope in their future as horrific scenes of sexual abuses are regarded as normal and that of domestic violence are presented daily in their lives. Ironically in most families, women are the “primary breadwinners” who go out to work and supports the family. Ultimately, the poor status of women and the sexual assaults of children are interrelated. Zainab’s death sparked protests against the police and the local authority. The issue of child sexual abuse was once again presented to the public. As a matter of fact, there were twelve murders prior to Zainab’s case that were

similar to hers. However, the killer was never found. Among these murders, six of them (including Zainab’s) were linked and the DNA traces all pointed to one serial rapist-killer. The protests started out peacefully. Later, it turned into violence. Two people were killed during the clash between protesters and the police while many were injured. It was Zainab’s father who spoke out to the public, seeking for justice, making people sympathize with them. To a large extent, there may not have been protests if it were not for her father’s courage to break cultural stigmas and share her story. The protests symbolize the change that is taking place in Pakistani society as well; that is, people’s awareness of protecting children’s rights and women’s rights has been raised in recent years. This transformation has been promoted by Pakistani children’s rights activists like Fouzia Saeed, Naeem Zafar (who set up the Child Protection Unit in hospitals in 2009) and many researchers’ effort to study and inform both men and women the severe consequences of disregarding human rights in Pakistan. In addition, voices from powerful Pakistani women also bear influence on Pakistani society and draws attention to the case internationally. Three celebrity Pakistani women stood out and confronted the authority by replicating the movement of #MeToo. They shared their experience of being raped when they were young and urged women to not be afraid of speaking out, saying that they “want to change traditions that consider abuse as a mark of shame for the victims”. According to them, those traditions “help predators get away with abuse and encourage an already corrupt police force to ignore such crimes”. “We are now saying enough is enough. We should have woken up long ago,” Maheen Khan, a legendary Pakistani fashion designer said after sharing her experience of being sexually abused as a child by a cleric who taught her the Quran, “I am ashamed to say it has taken this one little girl’s death.” At present, another suspect, Mohammed Imran, is being held in custody. Every soul deserves to be treated equally with love and care. The outbursts from the people in Pakistan did not occur out of nowhere, nor should the change demanded by them be temporary. It’s time for the Pakistani government to truly pay attention on child sexual abuse issues, and bring back a happy, careless childhood to children and their families.

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The Enlightened Despot: Mohammed bin Salman and the Future of Saudi Arabia By: Harrison Giovannetti

Since his appointment as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in June of last year, Mohammed bin Salman has garnered significant attention for his ambitions of reforming his kingdom and transforming it into a powerful actor on the world stage. There can be no doubt that the Prince –widely considered to be the state’s de facto ruler in place of his father King Salman– is sincere in his efforts to realize these aspirations. In his brief time in power, he has implemented several notable reforms in areas such as education (modernizing school curricula and improving the skills of teachers) and civil liberties (allowing women to drive and lifting a ban on movie theatres) as part of a wide-ranging platform known as Saudi Vision 2030. What remains less clear is whether this agenda will be successfully implemented and, if so, what the ramifications would be for the surrounding region. It is difficult to understate the sheer magnitude of the changes Prince Mohammed seeks to shepherd in. Saudi Vision 2030 – which was announced by the then-Deputy Crown Prince in 2016 – aims to create a more prosperous society and economy by doing everything from establishing cultural and historic sites to promoting athleticism and entertainment to ensuring the virtuous upbringing of the next generation of Saudi children. In addition, Vision 2030

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outlines series of structural economic changes that Prince Mohammed considers to be a “Thatcher revolution” of sorts for Saudi Arabia. Part and parcel of this is diversifying the economy to reduce its dependence on oil and facilitating greater long-run economic growth. The latter is to be achieved by allowing for an expanded role of private enterprise and unleashing the power of the kingdom’s vast untapped resources – among them uranium and, notably, women. To boot, the Prince has also denounced the doctrine of ultra-conservative Islam that has prevailed in his kingdom since the latter half of the twentieth century, stressing the need for a more modern and tolerant interpretation of the faith. In light of this, Prince Mohammed has been hailed by some Western observers as a long-awaited modernizer finally prepared to bring the theocratic kingdom into the 21st century. However, critics contest this claim, pointing to the Prince’s poor record on human rights and noting that, even if the proposed reforms are fully implemented, Saudi Arabia will in many ways remain stuck far outside the 21st century. Particularly worrisome in their eyes was last November’s purge in which 500 individuals – among them royal family members, government ministers, and busi-

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nessmen – were abruptly arrested and charged exorbitant sums for bail (allegedly totalling $100 billion). Ostensibly undertaken with the aim of tackling corruption, many have criticized the purge as nothing more than an attempt by the Prince to consolidate his control over the government. To them, his guise as reformer is nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Both his avid advocates and ardent detractors seem to miss something about Prince Mohammed and his plan for Saudi Arabia. It is true that the man is no great liberator: Saudi Arabia remains very much an autocracy and, while Vision 2030 speaks broadly about ensuring public engagement, nowhere does it include plans to make the kingdom more democratic. Political parties and public protests remain illegal, and the Prince’s calls for fiscal responsibility and cracking down on embezzlement appear disingenuous from a man whose recent purchases include a €500M yacht and a €275M palace in France. Yet this does not change the fact that he is taking real steps to improve the quality of life of ordinary Saudis. Critics who allege that the Prince is primarily interested in expanding his control over his (increasingly powerful) kingdom rather than furthering the interests of his people ignore the fact that the two need not be mutually exclusive. Indeed, they are very much complementary. Consider the aforementioned anti-corruption purge. Yes, the arrest and detainment of many government officials rightfully raised concerns about whether Prince Mohammed had an ulterior motive of suppressing political opposition. However, the Prince correctly points out that some of the individuals arrested either had a history of loyalty to him or were not in positions where they could have effectively challenged his power. Although this does not refute claims about the purge being a power grab, it illustrates that the Prince’s stated motive of tackling corruption need not be false. The purge can plausibly be seen as an attempt to both combat graft and strengthen his grip on the government. For this, the Prince deserves credit, as embezzlement has cost the country untold billions over the years and been a source of resentment among many average citizens. While this may have the effect of further consolidating the Prince’s authority, it is not as though pre-existing democratic institutions are being weakened in the process (unlike, say, what has happened in Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan). Likewise, many of the proposed domestic reforms seem to serve the dual purpose of bolstering Prince Mohammed’s power and benefitting the Saudi public. Indeed, the Prince is not coy about the end goal of all this – the explicit aim of Vision 2030 is to transform Saudi Arabia into a “powerhouse” for global trade and investment as well as to realize the kingdom’s potential as “the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds.” With this in mind, many of the planned reforms make practical sense. Allowing women to drive will help achieve the Prince’s goal of raising their labour force participation rate from 22% to 30%. This, in turn, will likely boost household incomes and increase the nation’s productive capacity. Encouraging entrepreneurship and promoting tolerance for individuals of different faiths should stimulate greater private investment from both domestic

and foreign sources who may have been turned away by economic and human rights concerns. And measures such as opening movie theatres and restricting the power of the state’s religious police should work to raise public morale and satisfaction with the regime. Prince Mohammed appears to be a modern-day “enlightened despot” of sorts, cognizant of the fact that what is good for the citizenry – increased freedom, greater economic opportunity, less corruption – is often good for the state and its ambitions. An educated, happy, and working populace is more productive and more likely to support the government and its foreign policy ambitions (a lesson Iran is learning the hard way). The reforms may not be done out of altruism, but that does not mean that they cannot or will not be a force for good for Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabians.

“This threat could grow even more grave as tensions in the Middle East escalate, particularly with respect to Saudi Arabia’s conflicts with Qatar and the ever-ambitious Iran.”

There is reason to be wary of Prince Mohammed. But such nerves should not stem from frustrations about his human rights abuses or his unwillingness to provide true freedom to his people, for it was never reasonable to expect anything to the contrary. Instead, observers should be cautious of his often impulsive behaviour, ranging from his spendthrift habits to more consequential actions such as his government’s ill-timed austerity measures (which exacerbated some of the country’s economic woes and created widespread public discontent) and his reckless military intervention in Yemen (which has created one of the world’s most pressing humanitarian crises). This threat could grow even more grave as tensions in the Middle East escalate, particularly with respect to Saudi Arabia’s conflicts with Qatar and the ever-ambitious Iran. Failure on the part of Prince Mohammed to temper his erratic tendencies could prove disastrous in the event of a general war. If Saudi Arabia succeeds in achieving regional hegemony, the world should hope that Prince Mohammed learns to exercise greater restraint. Whether either of those scenarios comes to fruition is anybody’s guess. Time will tell.

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Stuck in the Middle

How Japan is Dealing with Potential Nuclear War By: Kristen Johnson


On the morning of January 13th, residents of the state of Hawaii received startling messages of an incoming ballistic missile. In response, residents all across the islands sought shelter in the short amount of time they perceived they had, and braced themselves for the oncoming attack. Thirty-eight minutes after the message was sent, officials dispatched another broadcast to announce that the original warning was in fact a“false alarm”. While this scenario of a ballistic missile attack in Hawaii was fictitious, the possibility of a missile attack in the immediate future of the Pacific region is disturbingly high. The threat of a nuclear North Korea has been a concern for world leaders since Kim Jong-Un’s accession to power in 2011. However, it was not until 2017 when nuclear missile tests were confirmed in North Korea that the global community sought immediate action. On November 29th of that year, the United Nations passed the harshest sanctions yet against the isolated nation, cutting off 89% of all fuel, gasoline, transportation, and industrial materials. These sanctions were meant to pressure North Korea into entering negotiations for nuclear proliferation “before it is too late”- as an Uruguay representative stated during the sanction negotiations- and North Korea gained a sufficient nuclear arsenal. While the intention of the sanctions were to dissuade Kim Jong Un from furthering his nuclear objectives, what occurred was in fact the opposite. To ring in the New Year, Kim Jong- Un declared that North Korean intercontinental missiles could reach mainland North America, and that “the nuclear button is always on the desk of my office”. President Donald Trump did not wait long to respond to North Korea’s allegations, stating on Twitter: “Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform [Kim Jong Un] that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!” What’s followed have been frantic attempts to discuss and negotiate with Kim Jong-Un, in order to mitigate the possibility of an active nuclear crisis. While the whole world has been watching North Korea, Washington and President Donald Trump’s Twitter account, little attention has been paid to the nations lying in the crossfire of these two nuclear powerhouses. With the rising threat level, many countries, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region, have begun preparing their own safety and security measures. In Japan, only around one-thousand kilometres from the North Korean shores, these efforts have centred on international diplomacy and increasing its active military presence. Such actions may not be significant enough to persuade change in policies from either side of the conflict, but it may be enough to shock the international community into further action. Japan’s close association with the conflict is in its geography, situated in the crossfire of any potential nuclear attacks from both North Korea and the United States. Their proximity to the turbulent nation has not gone unnoticed in Japan, and was reflected in the most recent general election, with the victor being Shinzo Abe who ran on a platform of “national safety”. According to Prime Minister Abe, the nuclear threat that is North Korea is the “greatest threat to Japan since World War Two” and has repeatedly petitioned the international community to commit to use all diplomatic means necessary to disarm Kim Jong Un. Prime Minister Abe has asserted the necessity of

the international community increasing diplomatic relations with North Korea as a first option, while also beginning to increase his country’s ties to other members of the international community. This mainly includes European Union members with already established relationships with North Korea, and with of the autocracy’s main supporters, Russia. In the past week, Prime Minister Abe has visited the Baltic States of Lithuania and Latvia, cyber-hubs able to access North Korea, to persuade them to not assist North Korea and its leader. Through showing these smaller European states respect and goodwill, Japan is hoping to both limit North Korea’s influence in the Western hemisphere , but also increase its future economic opportunities. Although increasing diplomatic ties may assist in deterring or postponing nuclear they cannot sufficiently increase Japan’s security. A core tenet of international relations theory is the notion that each nation can only depend on itself for its own security. This principle is currently difficult for Japan as one of the components of Japan’s defeat in World War Two was the disbandment of a unified, national military. With the election of Prime Minister Abe and the threat of North Korea though, this law may soon be changed. Upon election, Abe began a parliament petition to amend the Japanese constitution to allow “self-defense forces”, or what can be better interpreted as a standing military. In addition to this constitutional change, the Japanese cabinet has authorized the purchase of two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems from the United States. Such a purchase is part of Japan’s record breaking defense budget of $46 billion (US), and the systems are set to be operational by 2023. The emphasis on diplomacy in the Japanese solution to the North Korean conflict has had to be combined with an escalation of military spending- one not seen in the history of modern Japan- in response to the ever-more realistic possibility of a hot war. Unlike President Trump, whose defense strategy can be found posted casually on Twitter, other nations in the crossfire are seeking to alter the current situation through every diplomatic measure in their power- trying at all costs to avoid conflict. If such diplomacy and true strategic-mindedness were shared by larger powers, the chance of nuclear war would likely decrease. However, until such time, the nations caught in the middle will have to continue pulling beyond their weight to deter North Korea from pushing that increasingly shiny nuclear button.

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Trump, Offensive Realism, and the Rise of China By: Ryan Anderson

It goes without saying that the rise of China as a great power and potential peer-competitor to the U.S. has featured prominently in realist literature, and has also “fundamentally altered the architecture of the international system.” In turn, there has been a distinct shift in the foreign policy of other great powers, such as the U.S., to ensure China’s growth does not result in a Chinese-dominated system, or in the language of offensive realism, the achievement of “regional hegemony.” The most obvious example of this was the “pivot to Asia” agenda of the Obama administration, aimed at developing a broader regional strategy and foreign policy for Asia and the Pacific. Though, as some scholars have suggested, this ‘pivot’ seemed to also “be partly a function of ‘pull,’ and partly of ‘push.’” Now that China has displayed a continual rise in relative power compared to the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, it is vital that the U.S. ensures it has a smart, strategic, and realistic foreign policy concerning China’s growth-perhaps more so than it has ever been. Examined through the lens of offensive realism, this article will argue that Donald Trump’s current foreign policy regarding China does not reflect, and oftentimes contradicts, what realist theory would strongly insist it to be. I will first provide context

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to China’s rise in relation to realism—in this case offensive realism—followed by an explanation as to why President Trump’s foreign policy towards China is not only flawed, but is also indicative of a strategy absent of any meaningful realist traits. To scholars of offensive realism like John Mearsheimer, China’s rise in power and the threat it now poses to the international system and other great powers comes as little or no surprise. In fact, the theory’s fundamental logic and core assumptions can tell us a great deal about China’s rise, including why the country has risen, what it will do next, and how the U.S. and other competing states will respond. However, before these insights are expanded upon, it is important to further explain how offensive realism differs from defensive realism, as both fall under the umbrella of structural realism and are often confused with one another. While the two agree that the basic structure of the international system forces states to compete against each other for power in order to guarantee their security (and thus survival), offensive realism maintains that the “ultimate goal of every great power is to maximize its share of world power and eventually dominate the system.”Because of this, powerful states strive to achieve re-

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gional “hegemony” and will go to great lengths to ensure no other great power is able to dominate a particular area. In sum, the logic of offensive realism is fairly simple to understand: the more power a state accumulates relative to its competitors, the more security it enjoys, and therefore the more likely it is to survive in an anarchic system. So, how does offensive realism explain the rise of China and the likely reaction of other great powers? In brief, China’s growth has largely been attributed to its impressive economic development of recent decades. Should its economy continue to grow at such a rate, offensive realism holds that China—now armed with an economy strong enough to support such endeavours—will seek to dominate the Asia region just as the U.S. dominates the Western Hemisphere today. However, since the theory also suggests that competing great powers will do whatever they can to prevent others from gaining regional hegemony, a geopolitical and geostrategic security competition (which could lead to preventive war) is likely to break out between the two sides. While China is by no means a significant military threat to the U.S. today, offensive realists argue that China’s rise is a long-term threat, not a short-term one. As such, Mearsheimer contends that the best strategy to deal with a rising China is containment; a policy which would focus on preventing China from conquering territory and expanding its sphere of influence throughout Asia. Indeed, Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia (e.g., the strengthening of balancing alliances and unofficial regional relationships, promoting open trade and investment etc.) was more in line with Mearsheimer’s policy prescriptions than some would care to admit, this strategy has not been continued by the Trump administration. Despite being one of America’s most pressing foreign policy challenges in the years to come, President Trump’s Asia policy is perhaps his greatest failure yet. First, President Trump began his presidency by questioning the long-standing “One China” policy through his tweet congratulating Taiwan’s President for her election victory—an unprecedented move that sparked anger from China. Previous administrations have gone out of their way to acknowledge that Taiwan is not a sovereign country, and instead is apart of China. Second, Trump then went on to single-handedly withdraw the U.S. from the largest free-trade agreement in history—the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP served as a key multinational institution that held considerable geo-strategic and geo-economic significance for the U.S., as the terms of the deal translated to an increase in American influence throughout the region. In practical terms, the TPP was effectively able to check China’s economic growth (who is not in the TPP) by incentivizing several key Asian partners, such as Japan, to open their economies in ways that would bind them more closely to U.S. trade, thus undermining China’s global competitiveness. America’s withdrawal from the TPP has not only sent a troublesome message to the country’s strategic allies in the region, however. Trump’s decision will also empower China’s long-term pursuit towards dominating Asia as its economy will continue to attract the interests and

business of neighboring markets. This is all to say that President Trump has yet to take any significant or perceptive action towards preventing China—America’s closet peer-competitor—from dominating Asia. Instead, his foreign policy decisions towards Asia will directly result in the decrease of U.S. regional influence, thus allowing China to continue to tilt the balance-of-power in its favour. While the consequences of this misguided foreign policy may not be immediately apparent, there is no doubt that its continuation will lead to the decay of America’s long-term position in the international system, not just in Asia. It is therefore clear that Donald Trump is not a realist, and to suggest otherwise would contradict the theory’s most fundamental tenets and logical policy prescriptions. Moving forward, the Trump administration should consider the prescriptions offensive realism suggests as the theory offers value insight into how China might behave in the years to come.

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Youth Disconnected?

Youth Turnout and Political Engagement in Malaysia Ahead of 2018 Election By: Cassandra Preece McMaster University

Voter turnout is declining across the world. More and more young people are growing apathetic and refusing to show up to the ballot box. Democracies are at risk if the voter turnout among young people continues to fall. Until the 2015 federal election, the trend of ever diminishing voter turnout was most pronounced among young Canadians. Low electoral participation among young people is not just a problem in democratic nations like Canada. In an electoral authoritarian regime such as Malaysia, where the government continues to hold regular elections but violates important democratic principles, there is a similar problem of declining youth turnout, but with even greater consequences. Two recent surveys in Malaysia demonstrate a disconnect between youth and the political realm. “Mood of the Nation Ahead of GE14” by Leong and Jalil found that the majority of young voters are undecided on who to vote for. A Merdeka Centre survey indicated that more than 70% of young Malaysians do not care for or felt they had no influence over politics. Even more alarming, a civil society group that conducts voter registration has reported that of the 3.7 million Malaysians who are not registered but eligible to vote, more than two-thirds are under 30. Malaysia’s party system is split into two main coalitions, representing the ruling and opposition forces. When pressed as to why they will not register or show up to vote, young Malaysians seem to feel that neither party truly rep-

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resents their interests. Other explanations include a general distrust in government and a sense of helplessness. This is unsurprising since at the federal level, the United Malays National Organization Party has ruled through coalition alliances, corrupt practices and restrictive electoral regulations since Malaysia’s independence in 1957. With more than 2.5 million youth voters either choosing not to register or still undecided, the youth population represents a crucial vote base with the power to influence significant change in the country. This core demographic has been described as disconnected and yet, they are increasingly some of the most technologically connected voters in Asia and around the world. Freedom house found that more than 71% of Malaysians access the internet, and more than 80% of Malaysian internet users use social media. The large majority of young Malaysians own a Facebook account, consistently use WeChat and Youtube, and socialize through Instagram. So, if technology is supposed to connect us, why does the most technologically connected population in Malaysia (and around the world) appear to be disconnected more than ever? A group of scholars known as cyber skeptics have argued that social media serves as a demobilizing force among youth and older populations alike. While their views do have merit, in the case of Malaysia (and Canada for that matter), the argument put forward by cyber uto-

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pians is more compelling. These scholars are optimistic about the impact of social media, arguing that networks such as Facebook and Twitter have the potential to positively impact the political sphere. Social media can facilitate networking, perform checks and balances on both government and mainstream media, and allow people to express their opinions with less fear of persecution. In authoritarian regimes, it serves as an alternative source of news and provides important tools for opposition mobilization. The Bersih rallies in Malaysia over the last decade have proven how valuable social media can be for opposition movements. Bersih has held five street protests since 2007 and is made up of more than 89 non-governmental organizations. The movement’s main goals are to clean up the corrupt electoral system, including reforming the postal ballot system, expanding the campaign period and strengthening public institutions to act independently and protect human rights. From the second street protest on, social media has been used as a critical tool in the Bersih movement. Facebook and other social media platforms are used during the rally to share information in real time and respond to inaccurate official statements. In between rallies, networking sites are used to disseminate tips, infographics and educational videos. Of course, the Bersih social media campaign is also used to target a broad audience and encourage Malaysians to stand up for necessary change. Although rally turnout has varied since the first Bersih protest, social media has helped target young Malaysians. The most recent rally in 2016 witnessed an increase in Malay youth participation, with many praising the movement’s social media outreach. Social media provides a new mechanism to not only bolster opposition support, but to target the youth population and encourage them to participate, engage and vote. Youth voter turnout in Canada increased by more than 12% from the 2011 to 2015 federal elections. Recent studies have gone so far as to credit the Liberal party’s success from an aggressive social media campaign targeting young Canadians. If it can happen here, why not in a country like Malaysia, where the youth have already shown interest in opposition movements? The impending 2018 general election is expected to happen within the next seven months. For opposition parties to be successful, I believe they must harness the power of social media and target the younger generation. Inspire the technologically connected to become even more politically connected.

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To Boldly Go: A Nation’s Venture into Demographic Disaster

By: Gavrilo Randjelovic

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At a local school in Kobe, Japan, the joyful sound of playing children can only faintly be heard. Not for lack of fun nor recreation, however; this school, like many others in Japan, lacks children. The ‘catastrophe’ facing Japanese demography has been familiar to policy-makers domestically and internationally for over two decades. In a nation where more adult diapers are sold than children’s diapers, an aging population coupled with extremely low birth rates is fundamentally reshaping the way society functions. After the Second World War, Japan’s rapid industrialization led, as in many other countries, to a decline in the national fertility rate, defined as the number of births per woman. In the late 1950s, Japan became the first major economy to drop below a sustainable ‘replacement’ fertility of 2.1 – the average Japanese woman had only 2 children, compared to 3.65 in America. Following a period of protracted economic decline in the 1990s, the Japanese fertility rate sunk to an abysmal low of 1.26 in 2005. It currently stands little improved, at 1.46. The phenomenon of aging populations and fewer babies has not been unique to the land of the rising sun. In-

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deed, the majority of industrialized nations experience the same issue to varying degrees. Nowhere has the problem been as immediate as in Japan, however. Extremely low birth rates over a half-century combined with an outsized baby-boomer population and a high life expectancy have created a social security disaster. With a growing number of dependents drawing from the incomes of a smaller pool of working adults, commentators warn of an impending collapse in the Japanese pension system, which relies on cross-generational transfers. A uniquely Japanese conundrum is the government’s relative inability to take action in the face of population decline. As a consequence of Japan’s 1990s economic crisis, the nation is the most heavily indebted in the world. Japan’s astonishing sovereign debt stands at 2.5 times the size of the nation’s GDP – this limits the government’s ability to prop-up existing social security programs. More worryingly, Japan’s massive debt prevents the nation from engaging in a peaceful ‘degrowth’ as its population ages. Indeed, although it is hypothetically possible for a nation to accept a declining population without decreases in quality of living, this is nigh impossible when a large debt hangs over the population for generations to come. As Japan’s population shrinks, its overall output will invariably decline unless productivity growth outstrips the population decline (don’t hold your breath – productivity growth is at all-time low levels). This means that the base of economic activity from which Japan can draw income to pay off its debt becomes smaller and smaller. Because the debt continues to exist at its original value, such trends pose massive financial issues for future governments to tackle. Japan’s massive labour shortages, a direct consequence of their population decline, have further jeopardized the nation’s economic sustainability. Those industries which service Japan’s growing retiree population find it harder to fill vacancies, creating a less flexible labour market. Naturally, the aim of Japanese policy-makers in recent years has been then to relieve Japan’s pressing economic issues by increasing the population. The method most preferred by the Japanese public is to increase fertility rates. Hope sprung when, in 2014, it was reported that the fertility in a small Japanese town, Nagicho, had doubled over the span of a decade (from 1.4 to 2.8) after the institution of some subsidies for parents. Encouraging results such as that have prompted some politicians to argue for fiscal measures that improve parents’ well-beings. Others have supported this by drawing links between Japan’s ever-so-slightly improving economy and its ever-so-slightly improving birth-rate. None of these methods are likely to hold. Parental subsidies or “baby bonuses” have been a perennial tool in the arsenal of policy-makers worldwide - yet they are only rarely effective. The case of Nagicho is interesting, but the cultural and geographic peculiarities of the region likely play a large part in that town’s unique experience. It’s worth noting that, since 2014, the fertility rate has dropped back down to a sub-replacement 1.9. In the absence of some massive, undiscovered so-

cial engineering tactic to improve national fertility, the other major option to boost Japan’s population and economy is immigration. Immigration has been a source of controversy in Japan; the nation, ethnically over 97% Japanese, relied instead on rural to urban migration to support its economic growth in the post-war period. As such, the idea of immigration remained foreign to most Japanese and today, many policy-makers view suggesting increased immigration as political suicide. Yet it seems in may ways that immigration is the only solution for Japan’s population crisis, especially in the short term. Although immigration forms only a temporary solution to population decline, Japan will need all the help it can as it approaches the social security cliff. Foreign workers would certainly introduce a certain dynamism into Japan’s stale labour market.

“Although immigration forms only a temporary solution to population decline, Japan will need all the help it can as it approaches the social security cliff.”

Toxic attitudes towards foreigners may have poisoned the well for Japan, however. A recent survey of skilled workers - an immigrant group that the Japanese government has made some strides towards by accepting - showed that many workers ranked Japan last among potential migration destinations in Asia. Xenophobia, labour market rigidity, and poor English-language training all detract from Japan’s value to potential immigrants. Still, Japan will need to reach out not only to skilled workers but to unskilled ones if it wants to rescue itself. The effects of a greater flow of migrants would alleviate many of the short and medium-term problems Japan’s economy faces. Ideally, the immediate boost may also provide the diversity of options and opinions necessary to generate sustainable long-term improvements. The public has reacted where policy-makers haven’t. More Japanese people polled are supportive of increased immigration than are against it, although the majority aren’t sure. It would do the Japanese government well to leverage their ambivalence before it is too late. In 2005, Prime Minister Taro Aso famously remarked that the Japanese nation was built upon “one race [and] one culture.” It has only been in the interest of nationalist politicians that this has been so.

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The Yakuza and Transnational Crime in South East Asia By: Cade Cowan

Organized crime poses a problem for South East Asia. The reasons for the region’s success, close economic cooperation and free trade, have also created the environment for transnational crime to grow. A loose network of regional crime groups are thwarting state measures to prevent the movement of illicit drugs and trafficked people across borders. One such group is the Japanese Yakuza. Yakuza groups have taken advantage of the ineffectiveness of regional security cooperation for their own nefarious, financial gain. The Yakuza is term used to broadly described the Japanese mafia. They’re both legitimate businesses and, less publicly, brutal criminal enterprises. What is unique is the Yakuza are not secret societies, or even illegal. They’re government regulated organizations with offices, business cards and corporate emblems. Despite this veneer of respectability, the Yakuza make their money from extortion, insider trading, illegal gambling, and drugs among other things. The Yakuza’s reach is not limited to the criminal world, as the Yakuza have ties to Japanese politics. A shocking example of this influence was exposed when the Justice Minister, Keishu Tanaka. was forced to resign when it was reveal he had close ties to the crime syndicate. This might help explain why Japan’s long-time policy has been to keep the Yakuza’s 22 crime groups controlled and out of sight, rather than eliminated. Yet, in last decade these groups have lost large numbers of members do to government ordinances that criminalized doing business with Yakuza members. It has made it difficult for them to access any kind of commercial business service, so official membership is down. The most disturbing of the Yakuza’s criminal undertakings is their involvement in human trafficking. The sex industry is booming in Japan and across South East Asia. The Yakuza have a tight grip over the sex industry in Japan and are directly invested in prostitution, massage parlors, and the sex slave trade. Experts have identified Japan as both a destination and transit country for human trafficking victims for sexual exploitation. The largest demographic of trafficked women in Japan are from Thailand. Traffickers take advantage of desperation of these women by prom-

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ISSUE XIV.III


ising legitimate employment opportunities. Once they reach countries like Japan, trafficked women are forced into sex work and are prevented from escaping with coercive debt and abuse. The sex trade is one aspect of the more complex transnational crime crisis in the region. Trade and economic cooperation between Asian states has allowed for unprecedented economic growth, but also the means for organized crime groups to expand their operations to not only traffic people but also drugs, weapons and counterfeit goods. It is estimated that the annual value of this criminal activity is a shocking US$100 billion dollars. The UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime have reported that region hosts the world’s largest methamphetamine market. The Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte’s violent, extrajudicial crusade against drug dealers is an example of the drastic measures states are willing to take to combat drugs and crime ASEAN, an important regional intergovernmental organization, has the mandate to address this issue, but institutional problems such as the need for consensus, which ensures sovereignty of its members, makes cooperation reliant on domestic interests ASEAN’s ineffective response to organized crime is empathized by its inability to establish a regional extradition treaty, like similar conventions in the EU, is do to domestic factors like Indonesia’s unwillingness to properly criminalize drug trafficking, as ineffective national policy complicates regional responses. ASEAN’s difficulty implementing an effective policy against organized crime is further emphasized by the unrealistic goal, set in 2010, to be a “drug free” region within 5 years. ASEAN members, if they seek to address security issues, must be willing concede domestic preferences to regional needs. It is no longer moral or practical to ignore the pitfalls of the global economy. ASEAN needs to find the means to recognize that the benefits of cooperation come with responsibility that they protect their citizens from the associated dangers. State and international responses to regional thuggery must be decisive but recognized the rule of law and human dignity. Human trafficking is deeply evil and vile, so if Asia aspires to be a global leader it must be must be both an economic leader, as well as a moral one, and that requires stamping out this behaviour.

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Globalization via Economic Development: China as a Major Player By: Jessica Knezy

China’s emergence as an economic superpower has redefined path to success in the international sphere. The state’s rise signifies a transition from a global economy controlled by Western states, to one where arguably the most influential player was virtually invisible in the scope of international trade forty years ago. Globalization calls into question the rigid categories of “us” and “them”, suggesting that the two are no longer mutually exclusive. Traditional economic roles have become malleable. In the last twenty years, China has been an irreplaceable actor in shaping the current global economic environment. Their break-neck growth from a relatively economically inactive state to a global superpower is largely responsible for the globalized system that the world is currently operating under. China’s growth is astounding. According to the Financial Times, China is currently responsible for approximately 10% of global goods trade, up from just 3% in 2003. China’s increasing share of the global trade market has created an interesting climate in the global economic system and allowed them develop their internal markets and expand their footprint on the global economic stage. China’s growing strength can be attributed to many factors, though, arguably, there are a few that have been more than beneficial to expediting the process. First, China’s membership into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 provided it with an institutionalized platform to develop trade policy and build relationships with other states. With its membership, China joined dozens of other states involved in an organization that is meant to foster international cooperation. Until China’s rise, most influential actors were Western states. China’s engagement with the WTO bridged the gap helping bring China onto the world stage as a major economic actor. Beyond lending it credibility, membership in the WTO allowed China to influence globalization in multiple ways. Two integral parts of China’s global economic influence are foreign direct investment (FDI) and global exports. As China grew in strength, it began to integrate FDI into its domestic economy by using it as a tool to cre-

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ate a source of competitive pressure in the national sector. As a result, FDI is related to more than half the value of all Chinese foreign trade. China’s use of FDI as a means of leverage speaks volumes. As a single state, China has managed to manipulate the system so it works in their favour. They have created a climate that improves not only internal industrial innovation, but also allows outward investment in a variety of markets varying from natural resources in Africa to transportation initiatives in the Middle East. Their use of foreign direct investment has expedited the process of globalization by furthering global interconnectedness through trade and establishing themselves as a non-Western economic powerhouse. China has taken the world off the course of proposed history. Its diversion from its label as an economic backwater and has come to occupy a new category of its own creation poses many questions about the trajectory of the global economic system. China, with its massive economic influence, has the ability to bring about a major shift in our current world order. China’s economic growth and development over the last twenty years has had a significant impact in coining today’s widely known term: globalization. Its rapid rise to relevance in the wake of a membership to the World Trade Organization sparked state-to-state relations that mimic the very essence of interconnectedness that defines globalization. China’s strategic use of foreign direct investments and expedition of global exports redefined the way in which a state can achieve economic success in this day and age. China serves as not only an example of a non-traditional path to power, but demonstrates the benefits of globalized market relations.

ISSUE XIV.III


Beauty Standards: Making International Business Boom or Bust? Examining the differences between Asian and Western beauty standards and their impact on international business By: Mae-Lin DeLange

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. This well-known adage suggests that an individual’s perceived beauty is subjective to the observer’s own preconceived notions of what is beautiful. However, cultural standards of beauty often vary between cultures, and these differences are apparent in Western and Asian cultural conceptions of such a fickle thing as what it means to be beautiful. The fallout of this may even have an impact on how commerce is conducted between Asia and the West. Research suggests that being perceived as more or less beautiful significantly impacts an individual’s life, specifically with attractive individuals achieving greater career success and higher pay cheques. With increased interaction between cultures, these findings beg the question

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of how different beauty standards between cultures may impact the advance of international business. Conducting business on a global scale already takes into account differing cultural norms, with numerous guides existing on proper international business etiquette. An individual may be considered attractive in their home culture and thus, perhaps be more likely to succeed. However, if they were to go abroad for business and the host country’s cultural beauty standards did not align with their appearance, is it conceivable that being perceived as ‘childish’ or ‘immature’ could impact the success of an international assignment? In Western society, the term ‘beautiful’ may conjure up images of models and celebrities whose skin-baring looks are emulated by social media influencers. Especially in the summer, images of female individuals in bathing suits are frequently found on social media news feeds. Women seem to strive to be referred to as ‘hot’ rather than ‘cute’, as is suggested by articles with titles such as ‘17 Struggles of Being a Woman Who’s Cute, But Not Hot’. In contrast, Asian cultures embrace being perceived as ‘cute’; photos on social media favour large eyes, bunny ears, and cute slogans. Various Chinese guides on taking ‘selfies’ claim that ‘cute’ and ‘innocent’ photos will be the most popular on social media, encouraging the appearance of ‘puffed-out hamster cheeks’ as opposed to a ‘seductive duckface’. They emphasize less makeup such that a picture’s aim is not simply blatant ‘sexiness’.

“As the world moves towards globalization, with rapidly developing technology and business relations, it will be interesting to watch how beauty standards further evolve as a result of interaction between cultures. “ Ultimately, between Chinese and Western cultures, there are four key differences in beauty standard ideals: skin colour, cute vs. sexy, eye size, and overall body size. In China, the paleness of one’s skin used to signify that an individual was of a higher class, while tan skin was associated with peasants working out in the field under the sun. As a result, skin whitening products are commonly sold in China. In contrast, tan skin in Western culture implies that an individual is wealthy and able to travel to exotic sunny locations, thus they are perceived to be more attractive. The Western makeup trends of contouring, lip-lining, and brow grooming do not see similar popularity in China. On Chinese social media, there is significant emphasis on being skinny, to the point where trending social media challenges involve twisting one’s arm behind one’s back to touch their belly button and stacking coins on one’s

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collarbone in order to display one’s thinness. In a way, a Chinese individual’s thinness can determine whether they are perceived to be pretty or not. This is not necessarily to say that there is not a huge pressure to be skinny in America, as can be attested by the glorification of thigh gaps and ‘fitspo’ articles. However, recently the movement to embrace more plus sizes has grown, which has been popularized by curvy celebrities and the trend of the ‘belfie’ (ie. butt selfie) over simple selfies. Essentially, Western culture prefers bodies which appear ‘fit’ and ‘healthy’, which does not necessarily mean thin. Nevertheless, the Western world also shows evidence of succumbing to judging a book by its cover. Beginning in the early years, it is shown that kindergarten teachers expect ‘cute’ kids to do well and thus, bestow more attention on them than on ‘ugly’ kids. A rather self-fulfilling prophecy, this increased attention leads to improved grades, confidence, and comfort in front of the public. In a 2012 study on real estate brokers, it was shown that the more ‘attractive’ the broker, the more that they earned. These findings were attributed to the ‘halo effect’, such that if an individual gives a positive first impression through their ‘attractive’ appearance, others are left with a positive impression of them in mind. Thus, their physical attractiveness is taken as a stand-in for their general character. On a higher level, a study of Dutch advertising agencies revealed that companies with more ‘attractive’ executives tended to have higher revenues than other companies. Evidently, beauty standards around the world differ according to cultural preferences. In considering common cosmetic surgery procedures around the world - America’s most popular procedure is breast augmentation, Brazil’s is gluteoplasty, and the trend in Asian countries is reduction procedures. These surgeries involve thinning of the face, as well as calf and eyelid reductions. What do these findings mean? As the world moves towards globalization, with rapidly developing technology and business relations, it will be interesting to watch how beauty standards further evolve as a result of interaction between cultures. In particular it is noteworthy to consider that a feature which may be viewed by you as a physical ‘flaw’, such as being pale, may be enviable to others from a different culture. Whether this happens consciously or unintentionally, it will be interesting to consider what this could mean for evolving beauty trends and the growing interaction between other cultures on an international business stage.

ISSUE XIV.III


Chinese Foreign Intervention in the Australian Political Arena: China's rise to power through covert methods By: Emily Robertson


President Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trading partnership with countries such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, has continued to have ripple effects in the world’s political economy to this day. Namely, it has made it clear that America intends to reduce its influence in the Asian region. This has left the Chinese government with the ability to assume a leadership role, both economically and diplomatically, in the region. As a result, some of Washington’s closest allies, including Australia, have been forced to strengthen their relationship with China. However, Chinese and Australian relations have recently come to a boiling point with the realization that Chinese companies have been donating money to Australia’s two main political parties in an attempt to sway Australian politics and public opinion. On December 5th, 2017, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced new laws in Australia that made it compulsory for political donors to declare if they were working for a foreign power. These new laws were created as a result of allegations that China had been interfering in Australian politics, universities, and publishing. Chinese meddling in Australian politics has been a fear among Australian diplomats since June 2017. However, this fear has since become an unfortunate reality.

“The prominent example of Chinese interference in Australian politics appears to be one of many examples of China’s increasing attempts to shape the world as it sees fit. “

A week after these new laws were implemented, Sam Dastyari, a Labor Party Senator, officially resigned from parliament as a result of ongoing controversy over his links with Chinese donors. Public scrutiny of Dastyari began after a recording emerged of him urging Australia to “respect” China’s territorial claims of the South China Sea. This recording was followed by an investigation about Dastyari’s foreign affiliations because he was voicing an inconsistent view that was against both the longstanding position of his party and the Australian government. To further implicate him, Dastyari also discouraged the Labour Party’s foreign affairs personnel from meeting a pro-democracy activist in Hong Kong. The investigation’s findings found that Sam Dastyari was acting as a “double agent” who was speaking on behalf of his main political donor, a Chinese billionaire named Huang Xiangmo. The Dastyari scandal, alongside evidence of Chinese investments in Australian political parties appear to be indicators of how Chinese influence and power has been growing stronger in the Trump Era. It also signals China’s attempt to change and shape the rules of global engagement. Australia has been left with a tricky balancing act.

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While China is Australia’s largest trading partner, Australia has also been trying to maintain its relationship with the United States to anchor its economic and security engagement in the region. In so doing, Australia has tried to entertain both partners with two opposing objectives. However, while Australia has tried to limit Beijing’s influence and power, the United States has simultaneously pursued an ‘American First’ stance, leading it to move away from its leadership position in the Asia-Pacific region. This has allowed Chinese influence and power to loom even larger in Australia. While the Australian government has responded to this with legislative action, they have had to tread carefully so that they do not lose such an important trading partner. Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken action to fill the void of global leadership that the United States has ceded under President Trump. The prominent example of Chinese interference in Australian politics appears to be one of many examples of China’s increasing attempts to shape the world as it sees fit. China has also been interfering in other countries, such as Britain, Canada, Germany and New Zealand. China’s main source of influence has been through the use of foreign investment to influence politics, through either party donations or to individual politicians. It has also used tactics such as subversion, bullying, and promoting self-censorship. With the United States becoming increasingly isolationist and China becoming increasingly internationalist, this rising power is creeping up to assert its influence on the global field. With China becoming increasingly integrated and dominant in the economic, political, and cultural spheres of our globalized world, the West is vulnerable to its influence. In examining Chinese influence around the world, the International Forum for Democratic Studies have coined the term “Sharp Power.” This term has been used to describe how China has invested significant resources in media, academic, cultural and think tank initiatives to shape public opinion around the world. This “sharp power” has been used to promote a positive image of the country and misrepresent information to the public by suppressing dissent and debate. China’s actions to “guide, buy or coerce political influence” represents a new landscape for vying to be the world’s superpower. China has used its role as a trading partner to gain influence across the world instead of the traditional hard or soft power methods used to gain influence. China is shaping the world as it sees fit. The example of its penetration in Australian politics merits interest because it is just the start.

ISSUE XIV.III



The Ob se rv e rM

e

c i r t

93.5% of Japan’s population resides in urban areas. 23.8% of Australia’s two-way goods and services trade is with China, making China Australia’s largest two-way goods and services trading partner.

610,000+ Rohingya Muslims have fled violence in Myanmar since August 2017.

157 million people, mostly in the rural west of China, are living on less than 1.25 USD/day. 54.8% prevalence of contraceptive use in women aged 15-49 in India

One in five women in Seoul have undergone plastic surgery, according to a market-research firm. 7-8 million metric tons of plant matter is burnt every year in India. 13,000 kilometers, the range on a recent North Korean missile that could potentially hit the continental United States.

33% of global shipping goes through the South China Sea 20.5% annual growth rate in FDI from China to Africa 18 months straight of decline in the volume of containers moving through the ports of Hong Kong.


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