How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

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HOW CAN THE UK RAILWAYS SECURE MORE PRIVATE INVESTMENT? April
Contents Executive Summary 3 Introduction 4 1. The investment case 5 2. Challenges to securing private investment in UK rail infrastructure 9 3. Meeting the challenges 11 4. The way forward: opportunities for private investment in UK railways 13 References 14 How can the UK railways secure more private investment? April 2023 2 Kings Buildings, 16 Smith Square, London SW1P 3HQ +44 (0) 207 201 0777

Executive Summary

Enhancing the UK rail network brings significant benefits for communities, the economy, and the environment. For every £1 spent in rail, £2.50 of income is generated in the wider economy. However, as the gap between investment requirements and available public funding grows, there is now an opportunity to consider a greater strategic role for private investment. This has been deployed successfully in the UK rolling stock market, and there are specific examples of successful private investments to build on, such as in rail freight. There is untapped potential to expand its use to unlock investment in future rail infrastructure schemes.

In particular, private finance or funding could potentially be used to:

● Grow rail freight through investment in terminals, depots, and new freight interchanges;

● Invest in connecting communities and services via rail stations and new rail links;

● Support transport decarbonisation, such as through faster rail electrification;

● Roll out digital signalling; and

● Exploit synergies between rail and other infrastructure assets, such as renewable energy and telecoms.

However, to progress these opportunities, there are a number of challenges that policy makers would need to address. Currently, schemes are held up by a complex and opaque system, which lacks the transparency and certainty that the private sector needs to invest and innovate. RIA’s four key asks of the UK Government are therefore:

Ask 1: A clear Government policy on rail and private investment

Ask 2: More pathfinder projects and standardised approaches

Ask 3: Intelligent market engagement and a targeted review of procurement practices

Ask 4: Fair comparison of the costs and benefits of private finance with public borrowing

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Introduction

This paper sets out the case for private investment in UK rail infrastructure, and identifies four key challenges which we believe need to be addressed.

Rail has the potential to be the backbone of a lowcarbon, high-growth economy. But as the gap between public funding and the investment required grows, we will need to consider private investment as a means to invest upfront in the UK rail network. Around the world, private investment is regularly deployed to support transformative infrastructure projects. This includes several sectors including renewable energy and water, as well as transport.

Private finance has successfully been used in the UK rolling stock market, securing over £4.5bn of investment over 2016-20221 and significant parts of today’s freight network have been privately developed. In contrast, there is very little private finance or funding in other parts of the railway, despite repeated government policy commitments to increase this.

Private investment could bring forward much needed schemes in diverse areas spanning new stations, electrification, digital signalling, new rail links, freight depots, renewable energy, and other innovative technologies.

A successful railway needs to look at the whole life cost of its decisions. In particular, private investment can complement public funding by creating a smoother profile of earlier investment, such as in the resilience

and energy efficiency of the network, meaning benefits will be realised sooner but also that costs can be more efficiently managed over the long term.

The first section of this paper considers the case for increasing private investment in rail. Part two outlines key challenges, and the third section sets out what is needed for a new approach. Finally, part four considers some specific opportunities for private investment in rail.

DEFINITIONS

‘Funding’ is who ultimately pays for an investment – the revenues from taxpayers, rail users or the proceeds from commercial activity in and around the railway.

‘Finance’ spreads the need for funding over time, and involves investing money that must be reimbursed, at a return, to the lender (e.g. like a mortgage).

In this paper, we use ‘private investment ’ to mean both private finance and private funding. Although the paper primarily considers the case for private finance, there may also be opportunities for privately funded schemes, where the revenues can be directly recovered by the private sector (such as through land value capture or retail).

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How can the UK railways secure more private investment? April 2023

1. The investment case

There is a big gap between current levels of rail investment and what is needed to meet key objectives including a clean and climate-resilient railway which is attractive to passengers and freight and supports net zero and levelling up. There remains a gap between public sector investment and the volume required to address the UK’s infrastructure needs. A rough estimate of the UK rail infrastructure investment gap is provided by Global Infrastructure Outlook, which compares current trends in investment and infrastructure needs to identify a £4.12bn2 annual gap (equivalent to about 0.15% of UK GDP), rising to £112bn3 cumulatively over time.4 Depending on the level of ambition for rail as an enabler of economic growth and social mobility, this may well be an underestimate.

Climate resilient infrastructure will present a growing challenge: RIA’s early analysis of funding for Network Rail in the next five year period 2024-2029 suggests that whilst it is broadly constant in real terms, it is unlikely to be sufficient to maintain the assets in a sustainable condition.

Transport is the largest emitting sector of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, producing 24% of the UK’s total emissions. 5 While rail is a small part of the problem, it can be a big part of the solution. In 2019, rail made up 9.5% of all passenger kilometres (across all transport modes), but only 1.4% of UK transport’s CO2 emissions, and only 0.5% of all UK emissions.6 This means that a modal shift towards rail, connecting new

communities to the rail network and providing the capacity for more journeys, creates enormous potential for reducing emissions. UK rail passenger numbers are continuing to grow and were reaching 100% of pre-covid levels in early 2023.7 There is strong evidence of growing demand for clean public transport post-Covid. 8

The UK currently has an uneven profile of stop-start investment in key rail assets, which is wasteful and undermines productivity: private investment could help smooth the profile.

The most efficient and cost effective approach to decarbonisation requires a steady workbank of rail upgrade projects as well as required renewals and maintenance of the network, in particular to accelerate rail electrification. Around 38% of the UK rail network is electrified – much less than comparable European countries, which are typically 60% or more electrified.9 Data from the Office of Rail and Road shows that the UK is electrifying its railway at less than half the rate needed to decarbonise by 2050.10 The UK profile of investment has also been much less steady than countries such as Germany, where unit costs of electrification are lower (figure 1).

Signalling also requires consistent investment, as 65% of current signalling needs to be replaced in the next 15 years (figure 2).11 Upgrading to digital signalling will be vital for improving the passenger experience, making trains more reliable and increasing capacity, as well as for improving safety on the UK rail network.

NOTES: 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2049 2047 2045 2043 2041 2039 2037 2035 2033 2031 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 Year TDNS over 25 years Known Schemes
Figure 1. UK railway electrification has been uneven and is currently well below the levels required for a net zero railway12 Source: RIA analysis
UK Past Delivery
Railway Electrification (single track km per year) The green histogram represents the volume of electrification indicated across: Transpennine Route Upgrade, Midland Mainline, Cardiff Valleys, Planned Scottish Decarbonisation programme. These are not all yet funded.
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The blue histogram represents the volume of electrification (c13,000km) identified as necessary to achieve net zero in the Transport Decarbonisation Network Strategy.13
How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

Figure 2. There is a substantial increase in signalling required, not currently funded14 Source: Office of Rail and Road

The UK also needs to boost economic growth and productivity. The National Infrastructure Commission has recognised that there is a need for private investment in infrastructure to achieve key goals, including levelling up.15 A steady programme of investment supports productivity by:

● Giving companies the confidence to invest in training and apprenticeships

● Ensuring that skills developed on projects are not lost when projects are completed, but redeployed on new UK projects

● Providing employment in high skilled jobs across the entire UK, and includes everything from local SME manufacturers to large international companies.

5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 SEUs –Accrued Activity Volumes Delivered/forecast conventional Delivered/forecast Digital Railway Planned conventional Planned Digital Railway CP2 CP3 CP4 CP5 CP6 CP7 CP8 How
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Investment in rail infrastructure, whether public or private, generates economic growth and public benefits, both during the construction of projects and as a result of the services they deliver.

Investment in rail delivers a range of economic, environmental, and social benefits including time savings, higher wages, job opportunities, improved public health and improved access to key services for communities.16 The number of people in “transport poverty” in England has previously been estimated to be around 1.5 million people (2.4% of the population).17 There is a significant opportunity to connect more communities to the network, transforming local areas. Rail investment, both private and public, is needed to achieve economic growth and a boost in productivity, connectivity, and social mobility.

Rail projects do not only provide positive benefits as a result of the services they provide, but also as a result of the productivity associated with the rail industry. For every £1 spent in rail, £2.50 of income is generated in the wider economy. Not only does the rail industry support 710,000 jobs – these green jobs are also more productive than the UK average, contributing more Gross Value Added per person than average.18

THE VALUE OF UK RAIL:

An independent 2021 report by Oxford Economics, commissioned by RIA, found that the UK rail industry supports:

● £43 billion GVA in economic growth

● 710,000 jobs

● £14 billion in tax revenue each year

● For every £1 spent in rail, £2.50 of income was generated in the wider economy

Because of the large extent to which rail delivers public benefits, rail systems and public transport are often subsidised.

In addition to passenger rail, rail freight also has enormous potential to deliver benefits. A 2023 report shows that rail freight contributes £2.45bn in economic benefits to UK PLC every year, with a single rail freight service having the potential to remove up to 129 HGV movements.

Globally there is considerable investor appetite for rail as a ‘green’ investment opportunity – but more could be done to leverage this investment into UK rail infrastructure

Green investment and green finance has experienced significant growth in the past decade. According to a 2022 report, the green finance market has grown from £4.2bn19 in 2012 to £441bn20 in 2021.21 Both in the UK and internationally, strategies such as ‘impact investing’ and ‘ESG investing’ have grown and garnered considerable interest. Unlocking private capital in infrastructure has recently been identified as a key priority for the G20 countries, especially in the wake of the pandemic.22 At COP26, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero was established, with 550 financial institutions worth £106 trillion23 committing to using science-based guidelines to align their assets with net zero by 2050.24 Private finance for green infrastructure is not in short supply.

In the UK, private finance is being successfully used in the rolling stock market. As well as from traditional banking, the UK rolling stock market has access to significant funding earmarked for ‘green’ ESG financing. Looking at a European example, the European Investment Bank supported the purchase of high-speed trains by Trenitalia using green bonds – this was the first time the bank had used such a designated green subscription.25 The appetite for rail as a green investment is clearly there.

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How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

In contrast, private funding or finance plays a relatively much smaller role in wider UK rail infrastructure. Pockets of private sector involvement exist. Rail freight brought in £2.8bn investment over 1997-2018 (c£140m per year)26 and HS1 is a privately run 30 year concession. There have also been recent plans by Network Rail to work with a third party consortium

to upgrade telecoms infrastructure. However, data from the Office of Rail and Road shows just 10.5% of investment in new infrastructure is from private sources, with the majority in rolling stock, and a small amount of investment in stations and track and signalling.27

Figure 4. Private investment in the rail industry (excludes Network Rail investment), Great Britain 2016-2022 (Source: ORR 2022)29
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 £billion (2021-22 prices) £5.6bn £7.3bn £7.3bn £5.6bn £5.9bn £7.6bn Total investment Private investment HS2 Network Rail enhancements £1.0bn £0.9bn £1.4bn £1.1bn £1.0bn £2.7bn £0.7bn £3.5bn £0.8bn £5.1bn £1.8bn £1.7bn £1.9bn £3.4bn £3.6bn £3.8bn £0.7bn £2.8bn 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2016-17 £58m £118m 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 £billion (2021-22 prices) Rolling stock Stations Other Total private investment £1,035m £212m £78m £858m £1,103m £1,393m £1,120m £155m £120m £845m £1,013m £672m £133m £97m £96m £149m £783m £427m £512m £762m £102m £147m
Figure 3. Investment in new enhanced rail infrastructure, Great Britain, 2016-2022 (Source: ORR 2022)28
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2. Challenges to securing private investment in UK rail infrastructure

There are some common challenges to bringing private investment into rail, falling into four main areas which we have set out below. However, as demonstrated in the following section, these challenges are not insurmountable.

Challenge 1: Lack of clear Government policy on rail and private investment: There is currently no coherent Government policy that provides the market with the clarity and certainty it needs to attract more private sector investment in the UK rail network. Over the past five years, several reports and papers have recognised the need for progress, but there is a need to collate the insights into one coherent UK policy:

● The 2017 Hansford Review, a Network Rail commissioned independent review, examined how Network Rail can unlock third sector involvement in funding and financing rail infrastructure. 30 The review found that there is a ‘lack of routine and repeatable way that private sector companies could invest, manage risks and achieve a financial return for managing Network Rail’s infrastructure projects.’

● In 2018, the Department for Transport launched the ‘Rail market-led proposals’. 31 The objective of this was to increase overall investment in the railway while relieving the burden on taxpayers and farepayers. The Department held a call for proposals for schemes that would be financially credible

without any government support, and received 30 submissions. It is unclear what progress has been made on this since then.

● The Government’s Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) included an ambition to ‘consider opportunities for alternative sources of private funding and private finance options at each stage of the pipeline.’ 32 The RNEP, which was supposed to be an annual publication, has not been updated since 2019.

● The UK Government Green Financing programme has been able to attract private finance, through green gilts and bonds, with infrastructure projects that have clearly defined environmental benefits, including some ‘clean transportation projects’. 33 In the financial year 2021-22, a total of £6m was allocated to expanding and maintaining the UK’s electric rail network as part of the programme. Whilst this is a welcome step, there is still untapped potential and private sector appetite to invest.

● The creation of the UK Infrastructure Bank (UK IB) was announced in 2020, as part of government plans to support private investment in infrastructure. The UK IB aims to crowd in private capital over time, and can issue guarantees for infrastructure projects backed by the Sovereign Infrastructure Guarantee. 34 There is a significant opportunity to build on this, focusing on rail projects.

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How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

Challenge 2: Complexity of contracts: Rail infrastructure projects can be complex, especially when they interface with the live rail network. Such projects can involve a range of bespoke risks, for both public and private sectors, which means that investment schemes often need to be bespoke.

● A 2019 Centrus report highlighted how private financing of rail will entail different parties having an ownership interest in assets that are part of the live rail network, which may now be owned by, for example, Network Rail. Assets on the live network include track, signalling equipment, tunnels, new junctions, stations when including track interface, depots when including connections, and electrification assets. This entails added complexity with regards to ownership, maintenance, and safety. 35 It means that getting risk allocation right and well understood is crucial.

● Global investors are comfortable dealing with proposals which have well established and understood arrangements for risk transfer. The Global Infrastructure Hub has identified key risks associated with rail transactions including land availability, access and site risk, construction risk, operating risk, and demand risk. 36

● We have heard from RIA members in the rolling stock sector how the public sector variations to contracts are changing risk allocation in tender proposals – unless carefully tested from a commercial perspective this is likely to create additional complexity and deter well established investors (potentially increasing the cost of finance over time). Deviating from these without significant justification risks driving out investors.

Challenge 3: Intelligent market engagement: Several challenges exist in the way in which the public sector engages with the private sector. There is room for improvement in key areas such as:

● Too often procurement notices are issued for schemes that are unlikely to go ahead. This adds unnecessary cost to projects through significant resources being put on bidding and scheme development. For example, the lack of follow up on the Department for Transport’s 2018 market-led proposals created costs rather than opportunities.

● The private sector’s ability to retain intellectual property is key to achieving private sector participation. When innovative ideas are suggested, too often procurement practices require the full scheme to go to market, undermining intellectual property rights. This hinders innovation: why would a company innovate if it cannot recoup the costs by being the party which delivers the solution it has developed?

Challenge 4: Balance sheet classification and cost of public borrowing: Several challenges exist with regards to public accounting rules and the differential between public and private costs of borrowing.

● When proposals are made for privately financed rail infrastructure in the UK, they are often classified as being 100% on the Government balance sheet, despite the public sector share of risk being low. This happens where, for example, the revenues generated by investments are accrued in the public sector, or if the public sector has underwritten ‘extreme event’ risks.

● Good public sector balance sheet management is essential. However, current rules and decisions are complex, opaque and result in binary on/off balance sheet decisions (i.e. 100% on or 100% off), rather than an accurate reflection of the split of private and public liabilities and assets.

● Sometimes, even schemes which have a positive financial business case and are not projected to require any Government money are rejected on balance sheet grounds. The cost is ultimately one of lost opportunity. An example is the Heathrow Southern Rail link.

● When schemes are declared ‘on balance sheet’, the full value is then added to the national debt and HM Treasury consequently rules out using private finance, because the public cost of borrowing is usually lower.

● With scarce public funds as the only remaining option, many viable investments cannot progress. For example Beam Park Station in East London was not supported by the Department for Transport on economic viability grounds, despite the fact it would be on a line supporting 20,000 new homes, clearly requiring access to public transport. 37

● This approach does not recognise wider benefits (efficiency, innovation, investment smoothing) which private finance can bring and may more than offset the cost of capital. There is rarely comparison of the whole life costs of using public and private finance. Given government budget constraints, projects then generally do not progress further, resulting in an uneven and insufficient infrastructure investment.

DEFINITION:

If a scheme is “off balance sheet”, this means that it does not affect the Government’s financial position (as measured in the national debt, reported by the Office for National Statistics) and that the assets and future expenditure are not considered as liabilities to the Government, as they are owned by an external party.

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3. Meeting the challenges

As set out above, there are some common challenges to bringing private investment into rail, but they are not insurmountable. Significant value could be unlocked by considering some of the key opportunities.

First, how can we address the challenges set out above? RIA has identified four asks of the UK Government.

Ask 1: A clear Government policy on rail and private investment: There is an opportunity for the UK Government to craft a general strategy on private finance and funding for infrastructure as a means to complement public funding and to boost economic growth and productivity. The policy should provide long-term certainty of approach, to provide confidence over the life-cycle of investments. Such a policy could unlock growth in a number of industries and sectors, including rail infrastructure. While it does not have to be rail specific, the policy should be explicit about the fact that it applies to the rail industry. To ensure its correct application, this policy should be accompanied by a bespoke unit sitting within HM Treasury which can provide cross-departmental advice, support and momentum.

Ask 2: More pathfinder projects and standardised approaches: There is an opportunity to bring forward trailblazer projects, providing proof of concept using less complex schemes that could provide frameworks

to replicate for future investments. The private sector is ripe with ideas and experience for how to successfully execute such schemes. This can then be built on, together with key stakeholders, as a basis for more complex schemes. As part of this there needs to be action to address the findings of the Hansford review – we need a clear and specific route-map for opportunities to invest in rail schemes (although this needs to be underpinned by the wider Government strategy). There is an opportunity for greater cross sector learning to leverage private investment, particularly from experience in the nuclear and water sectors.

When developing schemes, the public sector should take into consideration established market practices to risk allocation. Additionally, using standard form contracts, with well understood and internationally recognised approaches to risk allocation could help attract a large volume of private investment as well as reducing procurement duration and keeping down legal fees.

Ask 3: Intelligent market engagement and a targeted review of procurement practices: There is a real opportunity to harness private sector innovation, but in order to unlock this the public sector must effectively engage with the private sector. This includes taking an ‘intelligent client’ approach to procuring and considering the costs incurred by the private sector in the bidding process.

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Procurement practices must also be ‘innovation friendly’ in terms of allowing the private sector to retain and build on intellectual property. Understanding and accommodating for established ways of allocating risks means that the public sector is able to engage with the market in the most cost efficient way. Projects in other sectors have overcome these challenges, such as the Thames Tideway Tunnel.

Ask 4: Fair comparison of the costs and benefits of private finance with public borrowing: Government appraisal methodologies need to explicitly assess the potential benefits of using private finance: transferring risks of cost escalation supported by stronger financial incentives (private finance creates ‘skin in the game’ and will typically be accompanied by both debt and equity finance). These can help reduce the chances of over-spend, scope creep, and programme delay, and support innovation (provided that contracts are focused on achieving results, and not providing tightly specified inputs).

A 2019 National Infrastructure Commission report identified that a fair comparison of private and public finance requires decision makers to look at costs and benefits:

● Over the whole life of the project, from development to decommissioning;

● In the context of the economic environment and the industry – noting that a sustainable industry will lead to long term value for money;

● Beyond the focus on financial measures, taking into account wider outputs and outcomes the project is delivering – including quality of services, asset quality and condition and the enabling of innovation. 38

The outcome from a 2020 Government consultation on infrastructure finance noted that new off-balance sheet private finance models would be needed to ‘fill the gap’ created by the 2018 retirement of the government policy on public-private partnerships and given wider fiscal constraints on the level of government spending. 39 The Government needs to act on this finding, and should review the approach to balance sheet classification with the objective of fairly reflecting the share of public sector risk in each project.

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4. The way forward: opportunities for private investment in UK railways

If the above ‘asks’ are addressed, there are several types of rail infrastructure schemes which could be progressed using private finance or funding and which would add value for rail passengers, communities, the environment, and the taxpayer.

Considering private finance could facilitate much needed upgrades and capacity enhancements needed on the UK rail network.

Growing rail freight: To reach Net Zero we have to move more goods onto rail, and private investment and finance can accelerate this. New ports, freight terminals and depots can be progressed as less complex projects and can add significant value by improving the UK freight customer experience.

Investing in communities and services via rail stations: Improving existing stations and building new ones will be key in improving the passenger experience, and in providing connectivity and economic agglomeration benefits for communities. The £147m private investment in stations recorded in 2021-202240 shows that such schemes are feasible, but not being exploited. In practice, only a small part of stations are part of the operational railway. This means that there are many ‘off network’ opportunities as part of stations, including retail space, car parks, charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, and local community and housing investment. There are also opportunities to either build new stations, or refurbish existing ones. Alongside large stations, such as current proposals for Liverpool Street, there are thousands of small to medium-sized stations that could be upgraded using private investment. On aggregate, the implications for local and national economic growth and connectivity would be substantial.

Land value capture: Land value capture is a well established approach to securing investment in railways in other parts of the world, such as Japan. In the UK, there has been success on a small scale with schemes such as the reopening of a passenger rail line in Northumberland, connecting new communities

to the network, and capturing the land value uplift resulting from the investment. This has brought in a significant private funding element, alongside public funding.41

Supporting rail electrification and transport decarbonisation: As outlined above, decarbonising the rail network and increasing rail usage would have significant environmental benefits. Private finance is already being used to deploy low-carbon rolling stock. However, electrification must be a key part of decarbonising the UK rail network.42 There may be opportunitites to privately finance electrification assets, such as catenary systems. This would require a carefully designed scheme with appropriate risk allocation.

Rolling out digital signalling: Upgrading to digital signalling will be vital for improving the passenger experience, making trains more reliable and increasing capacity, as well as for improving safety on the UK rail network. Similarly to electrification, these would be more complex “on network” schemes with transformational potential.

Capacity enhancements and new rail links: Private investment can support capacity enhancements through the expansion of existing networks or the construction of new lines. Examples include the DLR extension from Island Gardens to Lewisham, and the extension of the Chiltern Railways Services to Oxford. As referenced above, the Government had previously committed to considering opportunities for private funding and finance for each of the projects in the RNEP. Such a rigorous review of opportunities would be welcomed.

Synergies between rail and other infrastructure assets: Network Rail is currently working with a private sector consortium to upgrade telecoms infrastructure, accelerating trackside fibre and mast upgrades. The third party funding is provided in return for rights to commercialise the network and similar models could be used for renewable energy generation.

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How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

How can the UK railways secure more private investment?

April 2023

References

1 https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2162/rail-industry-finance-uk-statistical-release-202122.pdf

2 Converted from $5bn, in 2023 prices

3 Converted from $136bn, in 2023 prices

4 https://outlook.gihub.org/countries/United%20Kingdom

5 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-and-environment-statistics-2022/transport-and-environment-statistics2022#:~:text=transport%20is%20the%20largest%20emitting,each%20local%20authority%20in%202020

6 https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/1993/rail-emissions-2020-21.pdf

7 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic/domestic-transportusage-by-mode

8 A 2022 global review by McKinsey and International Union of Railways found “Over the next ten years, given new mobility offerings, car modal share for short to medium distances is expected to decrease by between 20 and 70 percent, with variations across regions—freeing up modal share that could be captured by rail” https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/boosting-passenger-preference-for-rail

9 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/Electrification_Cost_Challenge_Report.aspx

10

https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Press_Releases/ORR_Electrification.aspx

11 https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/path-towards-greater-competition-and-value-railway-signalling

12 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/Electrification_Cost_Challenge_Report.aspx

13 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/Electrification_Cost_Challenge_Report.aspx

14 https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/path-towards-greater-competition-and-value-railway-signalling

15 https://nic.org.uk/studies-reports/national-infrastructure-assessment/baseline-report/

16 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/OE_2022.aspx

17 Sustrans, “Locked Out: Transport Poverty in England”, 2012

18 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/OE_2021.aspx

19 $5.2bn in 2022/23 numbers

20 $540.6bn in 2022/23 numbers

21 https://www.thecityuk.com/media/021n0hno/green-finance-a-quantitative-assessment-of-market-trends.pdf

22 https://www.oecd.org/finance/g20-infrastructure-investors-dialogue-2021.htm

23 $130 trillion in 2022/23 numbers

24 https://www.osborneclarke.com/insights/what-role-can-public-and-private-finance-play-decarbonising-global-economy

25 https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2021-464-eib-provides-financing-to-fs-italiane-to-purchase-new-high-speed-trains-in-italyand-spain-via-eur350-million-green-bond

26 https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/files/Publications/2018-06_rail_freight_working_for_britain.pdf

27 https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/finance/rail-industry-finance/table-7290-private-sector-investment-in-the-railindustry-excludes-network-rail-investment/

28 https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2162/rail-industry-finance-uk-statistical-release-202122.pdf

29 https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2162/rail-industry-finance-uk-statistical-release-202122.pdf

30 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/The-Hansford-Review.pdf

31 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-market-led-proposals

32 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-enhancements-pipeline

33 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-government-green-financing

34 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-guarantees-scheme

35 https://centrusfinancial.com/privately-financing-uk-rail-infrastructure/

36 https://ppp-risk.gihub.org/risk-allocation-matrix/transport/heavy-rail/

37 https://www.mylondon.news/news/east-london-news/new-london-rail-station-only-26009692

38 https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Evaluating-the-Performance-of-Private-Financing-and-Traditional-Procurement-July-2019.pdf

39 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/937407/IFR_ consultation_response_20201120_FINAL.pdf

40 Source: ORR industry financial analysis

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2162/rail-industry-finance-uk-statisticalrelease-202122.pdf

41 https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/evolution/news/67985/railway-reopening-breaks-new-ground-for-land-valuecapture/

42 https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/Newsroom/Publications%20Folder/Why_Rail_Electrification_Report.aspx

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