Accelerate new train orders and low carbon network upgrades 3
A lack of train orders over recent years has placed jobs and UK rail manufacturing capability at risk. The present rate of rail decarbonisation will not achieve net zero by 2050. There is no comprehensive pathway for decarbonising rail to maximise its strengths as a low carbon mode of transport which supports modal shift and as an enabler of economic growth.
Securing jobs, immediate economic benefit and carbon reduction
It is economically and politically irresponsible to risk the loss of train building capability in the UK. There is a long-term demand for trains in the UK with an order book in the region of £3.5 billion over the next decade. Simply replacing the current fleet of 15,0001 vehicles with a life expectancy of 35 to 40 years implies an annual average replacement rate of around 400 vehicles. With an estimated new vehicle cost of around £2.5 million, this is a £1 billion industry. Demand is only likely to grow, as shown by a recent forecast of between 37% to 97% increase in passenger demand by 20502
Until June 2024, there have been only two orders for new trains since 2020: The first was the 54 trains for HS2 which will not be in production until at least 2026, and the second was a small 10 train order for LNER. The confirmation of 10 new trains for the Elizabeth line in June 2024 helps secure the short-term future of one manufacturing site, however a long-term pipeline is required to guarantee the future of the UK’s broader rolling stock manufacturing capacity and the associated highly skilled jobs.
In December 2023, the Government published a high-level pipeline of rolling stock procurement opportunities although the document lacked detailed timelines. Some of these orders could be battery trains which could provide a quick win and fast track to rail decarbonisation.
“Long-term pipeline is required to guarantee the future of the UK’s broader rolling stock manufacturing capacity.”
A plausible, affordable and deliverable strategy
In April 2024 RIA published a new strategy to deliver a lower cost, higher performing Net Zero railway by 20503. Developed with members the approach builds on existing Government rail commitments and sets out how a coordinated ‘track and train’ approach would improve outcomes for passenger and freight users, taxpayers and the supply chain.
RIA’s strategy can be summarised as a plan of thirds. One third of the network does not need to be electrified as it can be decarbonised by using battery trains, one third is already electrified, and the final third, which is intensively used, needs to be electrified.
A Plan of Thirds:
Battery Trains for 1/3 of the network
Battery passenger trains are now a proven technology offered by all manufacturers. They would be supplemented, where necessary, by fast charging or partial electrification.
RIA’s plan fast-tracks benefits by focusing on noregrets opportunities to rapidly reduce carbon and boost air quality. Many passenger routes where aging diesel-powered trains are currently in use are suitable for battery-electric trains and therefore do not need to be electrified. These battery-electric trains can be bought now.
One recent estimate calculates that deploying batteryelectric trains could reduce carbon emissions by 12 million tonnes and save £3.5 billion over 35 years4.
Since the mid-1990s trains have been privately financed, which means battery trains and their supporting charging infrastructure can be deployed without direct, immediate or up-front government capital investment.
An implication of this is that one third of the network could be decarbonised before the end of the next Parliament with benefits for passengers and freight.
A reduced cost railway
RIA’s strategy, and the work of others within the supply chain, found that the whole life cost of battery-electric trains is less than diesel trains. Total Expenditure analysis by ADLittle5 included in the report calculated that this approach to infrastructure investment can break even within 14 years. It can be considered a ‘no regrets’ option for reducing the overall cost of operating the railway and enhancing the passenger experience as well as improving air quality and reduce carbon emissions.
Increased revenue through improved passenger experience
Newer, more reliable, better performing trains improve service performance. Electric and battery-electric trains are simpler and easier and cheaper to maintain than diesel trains. In addition, the data collection and diagnostic capabilities of new trains help increase reliability.
New rolling stock elevates the passenger experience, through improvements in cleanliness, comfort and the provision of passenger information. All of these factors can help create a virtuous cycle of increased passenger satisfaction6, increased ridership and increased revenue.
An opportunity for technology leadership
Battery and charging technology for rolling stock is available now and is already operating on the network. However, there is also significant opportunity to leverage innovation and development in areas such as battery traction technology, advanced manufacturing, and charging infrastructure.
A commitment now to a significant level of traction batteries in future rolling stock will encourage UKbased innovation and investment in this field.
Electrification for a further 1/3 of the network
Electrification remains the only plausible solution for most freight and intensive passenger services7. By electrifying this final third, the network would achieve net zero.
Current Government plans would increase electrification from slightly over one third of the network, currently 38%, to just over half at 51%8. RIA’s strategy takes a pragmatic and fiscally responsible view of where full traditional electrification is needed and proposes a further 15% of routes which, if electrified, would decarbonise 100% of passenger services and at least 95% of freight services.
This strategy requires no new funding in the next Parliament. Rather, it assumes continuity of the currently scoped projects while developing the programme in the decades ahead. This approach will allow the GB rail industry to be net-zero by 2050.
Cost efficient electrification
The stop-start history of GB electrification projects has been hugely inefficient and discouraged longterm investment in skills and innovation. A clear and agreed rail-map of the network electrification needed to achieve net-zero will allow the creation of an efficient rolling-programme with the potential to reduce costs by up to 30%.
A contribution to the reduction in long term energy usage
An electrified railway is one of the most efficient ways of converting generated electricity to passenger and goods movements. This is hugely important given the trajectory for replacing carbon-based fuels in both transport and energy generation.
Railway energy supplies could come from privatewire renewable generation, taking load away from the national grid. There is also an opportunity for lineside storage batteries charged outside of peak demand acting as renewable energy storage.
An agreed strategy
Going forward, RIA recognises the need to develop more detailed plans and therefore recommended the establishment of a cross-industry working group to evolve the strategy into an agreed and workable industry position. It is therefore encouraging that the broader railway industry is supportive of developing this concept of a future state map of the network and is already coming together to take the work forward.
An agreed pathway, with implementation priorities for electrification, would give clarity to railway planners and investors about which parts of the network will, and will not, be electrified.
At present, the absence of a clear map showing future electrification plans forces rolling stock manufacturers to into expensive compromise solutions and the rail industry is unable to engage effectively with the electricity industry. Such a trajectory would provide a clear pipeline of network electrification and would facilitate competitive commercial arrangements which would help drive down unit rates in exchange for pipeline confidence.
A cleaner, more sustainable mode of transport
Growing rail is one of the quickest and most costeffective ways to reduce UK carbon emissions because it is one of the lowest carbon ways to travel.
Transport now contributes more to UK greenhouse gas emissions than any other sector, so reducing this is key to achieving Net Zero. Growing rail can also reduce congestion pressures on road networks, making other people’s journeys more efficient too.
What is RIA doing?
RIA have been advocating for a practical and pragmatic approach to decarbonisation. In the past RIA have documented the lessons learnt from previous electrification schemes and set out the benefits of electrification.
In 2023 RIA called for decisions to be made to alleviate the rolling stock order book gap but also set out a practical strategy to prevent this situation recurring.
In April 2024 RIA set out a strategy to deliver a lower cost, higher performing, net zero railway by 2050. The strategy has been widely supported by industry and work is in-hand to review and test it to create a cross-industry strategy.
