VIEWPOINT |
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The Cheek of it Chris Cheek
Depressing picture for rail demand remains Demand fall worsens to 82 per cent in January-March quarter as third lockdown bites
D
emand for passenger rail services in the UK fell back sharply during the first quarter of 2021, carrying just 18 per cent of the figure in the same quarter of 2019. The third national lockdown was in place throughout the twelve-week period. Overall, demand fell by 82.1 per cent during the quarter, according to National Rail Trends statistics, published by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR). Passenger numbers fell by over 70 per cent at all TOCs bar eight where losses were in the fifties or sixties. In three cases – Avanti West Coast, and open access operators Heathrow Express
month, and cover the final quarter of fiscal year 2020/21, finishing at the end of March: across the network, 79.6m passenger journeys were made during the twelve-week period, down from 443.8m in 2019. Between them, they covered 3.1 billion passenger kilometres, 81.2 per cent down, and paid a total of £365 million in fares, 85.9 per cent less than in 2019. Looking at demand by ticket type, advance tickets were down by 83.4 per cent, whilst anytime peak and off-peak fares were down by 78 per cent and 80.7 per cent respectively. Season ticket holders made 85.1 per cent fewer journeys, back to the same levels as last summer.
Looking at demand by ticket type, advance tickets were down by 83.4 per cent, whilst anytime peak and off-peak fares were down by 78 per cent and 80.7 per cent respectively. Season ticket holders made 85.1 per cent fewer journeys, back to the same levels as last summer. and Hull Trains – percentage falls were eighty per cent or higher. The Scottish and Welsh franchises were just below 80 per cent. The provisional figures were published last
There is as yet no sector data for the January-March quarter as previous figures are being updated. Looking at individual InterCity operators, East Midlands Railway fared the
best, seeing a fall of 73.2 per cent, with Avanti West Coast the worst on 80.5 per cent. Amongst the regional franchises, Scotrail led the downward trend with a fall of 79.2 per cent, followed by the Welsh operation on 78.9 per cent. Merseyrail saw the smallest reduction, on 56.7 per cent. The falls amongst London and South East operators were at the lower end of the range. TfL Rail and London Overground saw the smallest falls at 54.9 per cent and 56.1% respectively. These two were the only TOCs to keep more than 40 per cent of their previous loads. Four more kept more than 30 per cent: c2c with a 60.5 per cent fall, South Western (down 63.8 per cent), Greater Anglia (68.4) and GTR (69.8). The others were all in the 70 to 77 per cent range. Rolling year figures The national totals for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021 now include four Covid-affected quarters. Compared with the last pre-Covid year of 2018/19, they show the number of passenger journeys falling by 77.9 per cent to 388.6 million, which ORR says is the lowest since 1872. Passenger kilometres travelled fell by 80.3 per cent to 13.2 billion, whilst passenger revenue saw a similar fall of 81.5 per cent to £1.9 billion. The train operators with the lowest falls have been in the commuting market, with five retaining more than 40% of their patronage across the year. These were TfL Rail, London Overground, c2c, Merseyrail and Northern. At the other end of the scale, six companies lost two-thirds or more of their business, including Avanti West Coast, Chiltern, LNER, Scotrail, Transport for Wales and TransPennine Express. Rail Professional
