VIEWPOINT |
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The Cheek of it Chris Cheek
Season of Mists and Mellow Covidness? Chris has been looking at the latest numbers on the effects of the Covid pandemic, now becoming a permanent part of our lives, and wonders what they portend for the future of public transport
S
uddenly, it’s the autumn. In this quite extraordinary year, spring and summer seem to have slipped by almost unnoticed, and as I write, it’s eight weeks since the lifting of restrictions on social distancing, which happened in the third week of July. The Department for Transport (DfT) is still publishing its weekly statistics on transport use during the pandemic, and pretty grim reading they make – especially for those of us who believe in public transport and in the need for modal shift away from private vehicles. In summary, the figures for motor vehicles hit a weekly average of 90 per cent of 2019 levels within days of the first lifting of restrictions after lockdown three in April. The numbers hit 100 per cent by the spring bank holiday weekend at the end of May and have broadly stayed there. By contrast, public transport use has lagged well behind. On the national rail network, demand increased from the mid-teens in February to the mid-twenties in March. On the first round of restriction lifting in April, numbers rose to around 40 per cent, hitting 50 per cent at the end of May. Since the lifting of restrictions in mid-July, numbers have hit the high fifties, before topping 60 per cent in mid-August. The most recent figures are provisional, though, and may go higher. London Underground followed a broadly similar pattern, but then it flatlined in July in the mid-forties, only topping 50
per cent in the last three weeks of August. Bus networks, meanwhile, have been slightly ahead – topping the 60 per cent mark in May both in London and in the regional networks. However, they flatlined in the mid-sixties throughout June and July. This continued into August in the regions, but London has moved ahead, and bus demand reached 71 per cent in the last week of August, the highest figure since all this began back in March 2020. In many ways, this has to be expected. The highly contagious Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus continues to cause upwards of 30,000 new cases a day. Whilst vaccination means immunity for most and a mild infection for much of the remainder, people are still being admitted to hospital in numbers and some are dying – including a disturbingly high proportion of fully vaccinated people. This virus has not done with us yet – and, not surprisingly, people are still nervous of catching an unpleasant and unpredictable disease. Whilst official advice against public transport use has been lifted in England, the information that has replaced it is still draconian, with continued mask-wearing, cautions against waiting indoors and to travel outside peak hours if possible. Hardly a ringing endorsement, but hardly surprising in the circumstances. Meanwhile, instructions to work from home if possible have also been lifted, and the government has indicated that it wishes to see a gradual return to work.
The response to this has varied, with some employers happy to maintain a significant level of home-working, whilst others remain opposed. Amongst workers themselves, the same is true: some long to be back in the office, others hate the idea – especially whilst infection levels remain as high as they are. It is well known that this is the rail industry’s big problem – prior to the pandemic, 47 per cent of passenger journeys were generated by commuters. Looking at the ONS breakdown of the workforce by occupation, it looks to me as if we’re likely to end up with around one third of the workforce working on a hybrid basis in future. This would result in falls of 13 per cent from 2019 commuting volume at risk, rising to 14.6 per cent in London – taking passenger volumes from commuting back to 2015 levels. People need to get back into the office if our big city economies are to return to anything like pre-pandemic levels of activity, especially in the hard-hit retail sector. Here, latest footfall statistics show that, whilst the number of shoppers is up from last year, they are still between 20 and 25 per cent short of 2019 levels. Meanwhile, latest stats from the Office for National Statistics show that the proportion of retail sales undertaken on the web has settled back at 26 per cent over the last few weeks (the same level as last autumn). If this does turn out to be the new norm, then online has seen a six per cent gain in market share since the end of 2019. Rail Professional
