Water Replaces Oil as Strategic Resource in 21st Century

Water is fast replacing oil as strategic resource, and competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the 21st century. Water is a central element in global affairs and the development agenda, with wide implications for international peace and security

“Conflicts over water arise from the fact that under conditions of increasing scarcity, competition levels also increase.”

–Anthony Turton, Trained Scientist specialising in water resource management as a strategic issue

By PRACHITA SINGH SAXENA

W

ater is a precious natural resource and it has the potential to be one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. According to the United Nations estimates, more than half the global population will live in water-stressed or water-scarce countries by 2025. Studies point out that India, along with China, France and the US, will have no drinking water by 2040 if consumption of water continues at the current pace. Changes result from continued economic growth and modernisation in these countries, including an increase in irrigated farming, rising industrial production, expanding consumption by the growing middle class and particularly in China, raising animals for a more meat-centric diet—will place even greater pressure on water supplies. Macro challenges such as climate change and pollution will further strain freshwater resources.

Limited availability and increasing demand always results in conflicts to control the resource. Growing pressure on global water resources is having major impacts on our social, economic, and environmental well-being. Future wars could be fought to control water or water could be the new weapon for war among nation states, in this century.

WATER – THE ELIXIR OF LIFE

Absolute water scarcity is already affecting more than 500 million people in more than 30 countries. The role of water scarcity in creating preconditions of discontent and desperation— precursors to violent conflicts— are widely acknowledged. Global water use almost tripled in the second half of the 20th century, increasing much faster than the world’s population in the same time period. Demand for water is projected to grow by over 40 per cent by 2050. An estimated 1.8 billion people will soon live in countries or regions with water scarcity.

An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, a UN Body) special report on climate change adaptation states that there has been a three-fold population increase in the past century and a six-fold increase in water consumption globally. If trends in population and energy use continue, it could leave a 40 per cent gap between water supply and demand by the year 2030. The effects of climate change coupled with population growth are expected to drive competition for water, potentially exacerbating political tensions in parts of the globe. The reports says nuclear power and coal—the most “thirsty” power sources— should be eventually replaced with more efficient methods, especially renewable sources like wind and solar.

WATER – THE NEW OIL

The oil crisis confronting the world today is much like the looming crisis in water, with depleting supplies, unequal distribution and access, and the inevitable spectre of rising costs and increasing conflict around the sharing of this vital natural resource. As with oil, water exploitation raises an inter-

generational debt that will be hard to repay. The uncontrolled and rapacious exploitation of oil has led to unintended consequences and we are continuing on a similar trajectory with water. Ironically, our unmindful use of oil fuels the crisis in water. Burning of fossil fuels has led to global warming, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and the early snowmelts that will cause the climate to fluctuate in a way that brings too much rain in some places and too little in others. In addition, the move to replace oil with biomass-based fuels will intensify water use, not so much for sustaining our life and this planet but to sustain our lifestyles. The above mentioned offers an insight into what oil once ‘was’ and how water has now become a most sought after commodity. Countries across the globe have displayed a renewed interest in water and that too with an increasing amount of threat-of-force. Whether the frictions over oil will continue at the current rate is a moot point and does not need defining further here, as what is of importance, in contemporary times, is how water has incrementally begun to override oil as a commodity. Water has replaced oil as the resource that nation-states must have, if they have to prosper. Fresh water has now come to the fore as a vital component for internal political security, extramural expansion and geo-political stability. Water is soon replacing oil as a precious commodity and positioned itself in a manner that water wars in future have transformed into a probability, rather than a possibility.

China-built Hydropower project on River Brahmaputra

Aerial view of Mekong River

INTERNATIONAL WATER GOVERNANCE

Understanding water in a strategic context depends firstly on understanding the norms and realities of international river use and governance. The right to use the water of a border-crossing river involves a combination of control–infact and control-in-law. From a real-politik perspective, the ABSOLUTE WATER SCARCITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING MORE THAN 500 MILLION PEOPLE IN MORE THAN 30 COUNTRIES. THE ROLE OF WATER SCARCITY IN CREATING PRECONDITIONS OF DISCONTENT AND DESPERATION— PRECURSORS TO VIOLENT CONFLICTS— ARE WIDELY ACKNOWLEDGED

WHETHER THE FRICTIONS OVER OIL WILL CONTINUE AT THE CURRENT RATE IS A MOOT POINT AND DOES NOT NEED DEFINING FURTHER HERE, AS WHAT IS OF IMPORTANCE, IN CONTEMPORARY TIMES, IS HOW WATER HAS INCREMENTALLY BEGUN TO OVERRIDE OIL AS A COMMODITY most important control is de facto, which depends entirely on geography. Simply put, it is better to be upstream than downstream. But even if possession is nine-tenths of the law, international water law still has a role to play. Though, there is no formal UN Convention on water sharing, customary international water laws set forth an allowable water usage framework, taking into effect multiple factors including historic use, volume of water contributed by each country’s territorial rivers, population size and future needs. Of particular significance here is the legal preference given to the first state to “use” water by building dams, diversion projects, irrigation or other engineered infrastructure works. The treaties of water sharing between nation states provide it the legal structure. There are more than 400 freshwatersharing agreements and treaties inked since the nineteenth century. However, the inconvenient truth is that participation in watersharing agreement remains almost optional.

CHINA’S AGGRESSIVE CONTROL OF WATER RESOURCES

China is the only country in the world today that has territorial ambitions. It follows the SUN ZU principle of expanding the frontiers by coercive economic and military power. Towards that grand strategy, it first controls the natural resources, then builds infrastructure to control these resources and exploit them. Thereafter, it sends traders to do the trade followed by security for its traders. Then, it coolly amends the maps showing that area as its own, citing some historic reasons or weird logic. Thereafter, forces are sent to safeguard the territory so claimed by china. Trying to present as superpower, nobody has the guts to challenge its hegemony. It has done that with Pakistan and now doing it with Nepal.

China is the start point of 11 rivers that flow into 18 countries. It is the only country to have such control of water resources that serve other countries. China is building large number of dams all across the country to control the water resources. Mekong River flows from China to South East Asia. Approx 11 dams are built on this river to control the fate of 60 million people. Similarly, four dams are constructed on Brahmaputra River which flows into China for a brief period and is lifeline of India and Bangladesh. With this network of dams, it can create floods and droughts in these countries, at will. It can starve countries to death and damage the ecosystem beyond repair. That clearly indicates the importance of water as a weapon in 21st century. We all know that China does not hesitate to use all the weapons in its armory and water is the latest in its arsenal. China is battle ready for water wars in 21st century and world should take a note of it.

Jordan River falling on disputed territory of Israel-Syria border

WATER WARS IN 21ST CENTURY

Increasing instances of use of water as a weapon of war in ongoing conflicts is now a new worry for the United Nations and other agencies which till now had been working to provide better water and sanitation facilities to these countries. Conflicts often arise when there is unequal distribution of resources and people are deprived of basic human needs, resulting in demands for improved services or opportunities, including security, recognition, acceptance, fair access to political institutions, and economic participation.

There has been much speculation over what causes conflicts over water. The conflicts arise over who has the power to control water and therefore, control the economy and population. Conflicts can be caused by water use which includes military, industrial, agricultural, domestic and political uses. Through the military and political uses, conflicts can be accelerated

by the use of water systems as a weapon and as a political goal. Conflicts can further be a result of pollution affecting the quality of the water supply. Not having water evenly distributed among people and countries creates an imbalance among those who share supplies, particularly in developing countries.

In the four-year Syrian civil war that has claimed 150,000 lives and displaced almost nine million people, water has been used as weapon by all the parties to conflict, including Assad government. Using water as a weapon to weaken people is a tactics used not only in Syria, but also in the West Asia and Africa, including Iraq, Egypt, Israel and Botswana. A US report, released in 2012, had said that beyond 2022, the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The report had also warned that the upstream nations—more powerful than their downstream neighbours due to geography — will limit access to water for political reasons and those upstream countries will regulate internal supplies to suppress separatist movements and dissident populations.

WAY AHEAD

Competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the 21st century. Water is a central element in global affairs and the development agenda, with wide implications for international peace and security. Nations are now moving to geostrategically and geo-politically assert themselves and hold what they perceive as ‘their’ water supply. Complete ownership of this trans-boundary resource is causing intra-regional tensions, which have the potential of outright hostilities. In the absence of clearly defined international rules and treaties, the situation is often interpreted by dominant nation states to their advantage. Therefore, there is a need to improve legal validity of regulations to control water and have better water resource governance, at global level so that water does not become a weapon in the hands of high and mighty nations.

CONCLUSION

Water as a resource is very comparable to oil. It is essential for all daily human activities. Water is becoming a very valuable commodity, yet freshwater resources are unevenly distributed among developing countries. This scarcity in water has triggered panic in countries that already have little access to water, let alone reliable water supplies. This desperation usually cannot be resolved by negotiations. If governments or rebels want water badly enough, they will resort to force to obtain it.

For centuries, war and conflict has been tied to the protection of water resources. With the risk of water shortages around the world becoming more and more of an issue, water has become the weapon, in certain conflicts in many regions around the world. “Water Wars” are becoming inevitable in the world’s future, among countries, that share the same water source. International law has proven itself inadequate in defending the equal use of shared water supplies. The civilised world under UN stewardship should take note of this rising possibility of Water Wars in near future and make regulations to legalise legitimate and fair usage of this natural resource by all the living beings, sans frontiers, otherwise this ecosystem will take a self destructive course.

Yarmuk River

–The writer is a scholar of Strategic Affairs, having Masters in International Relations from Christ University and has been associated with United Service Institution of India (USI), New Delhi-based strategic think tank. THE CIVILISED WORLD UNDER UN STEWARDSHIP SHOULD TAKE NOTE OF THIS RISING POSSIBILITY OF WATER WARS IN NEAR FUTURE AND MAKE REGULATIONS TO LEGALISE LEGITIMATE AND FAIR USAGE OF THIS NATURAL RESOURCE BY ALL THE LIVING BEINGS, SANS FRONTIERS, OTHERWISE THIS ECOSYSTEM WILL TAKE A SELF DESTRUCTIVE COURSE