100% Renewables needs Cooperation

AUTHOR: David Jarrett and Team Editor@ RDJ Publishing and RDJ Group ChiefExecutiveOfficer

As pointed out by IRENA (www irena org), Energy Security has always occupied the mind of utilities and policy makers from the perspective of adequate supplies This meant that as long as when supplies were required, they were available, all was good with the world

Energy security is defined by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price” while the World Energy Council (WEC) considers energy security to involve “the effective management of primary energy supply from domestic and external sources, the reliability of energy infrastructure, and the ability of energy providers to meet current and future demand”.

Energy security can therefore be accepted as a comprehensive concept that goes beyond mere supply availability It integrates reliability, affordability, sustainability, resilience, and access, reflecting the complex nature of modern energy systems and their critical role in economic stability and development IRENA identifies that addressing energy security requires a holistic approach, incorporating diverse energy sources, robust infrastructure, and forward-looking policies to ensure that energy systems can adapt to evolving challenges and opportunities.

In the case of Namibia, the decision needs to be made as to if energy security can be achieved through “own” supplies or through “alliance availability” With own supplies, this means the natural control of resources available to create the much-needed energy such as those that Namibia has in abundance being solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, wave, tidal, uranium and now discovered crude oil. However, for a resource to be useful, it must be easily convertible and readily available in sufficient quantities as and when needed, making solar, wind, and biomass leading contenders

Solar has led the way, with the utilities either having own solar power plants or power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) meeting some 9 percent of national demand and an IPP wind power plant contributing efficiently to that supply And with the recent announcement, the Otjikoto Biomass Power Station takes a closer step to reality to meeting some 300 000 MWh and around 7 percent of national demand Renewables other than hydro, would then be meeting 16 percent Due to the presence of Ruacana hydro providing between 15 and 33 percent, Namibia thus meets close to 50 percent of its electricity needs taking the country to the halfway mark.

Due in part to the variability of these renewable energies, battery energy storage systems (BESS) such as the planned Omburu and Aus ones will allow a deeper penetration of solar and wind There are other factors in play such as availability of land, suitable investment funding, matching demand to supply and appropriate regulations as any investments may include options for exports (cross-border trading).

There will be a temptation to look at nuclear and increased oil use to meet national electricity demand but from a sustainability approach, inclusive of affordability (both at national and individual levels), the long run marginal costs will be higher. What may alter this analysis is if Namibia decides to accept the depth of investment required to make nuclear part of its dispatchable and export strategy, noting that except for SMR technology, a system demand of 3 000 MW would need to be achieved as a minimum The IEA sees nuclear being suitable as having the lowest expected levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of all dispatchable low carbon technologies comparable to large-scale hydro. Could the Baynes Hydro project compete?

In the case of an oil-based approach that would lead to the breaking of commitments and focus on what could be difficultmarketframeworksduetothehighcarboncontent, Namibia would need either a refining partner or its own refining capacity to meet demand The development trajectory would also have to be carefully understood and planned so that current technology or its replacement would not be phased out due to decarbonized efforts globallycreatinganewchallenge.

A multi-dimensional approach therefore like IRENA advocates is essential to move forward effectively but due to the country’s development stage, more emphasis will have to be placed on meeting demand. The impacts of climate change as always will continue to create wide changing levels of hydro and NamPower will need mitigationstrategies.

It is thus possible to reach 100 percent renewables supply if concerted efforts are continued As always, the conversationcontinues infocus@rdjpublishing.africa

Readings:

https://mc-cd8320d4-36a1-40ac-83cc-3389-cdnendpoint azureedge net/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/20 24/Apr/IRENA Geopolitics transition energy security 2024 pdf https://nipdb com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Namibia-SectorProfile-Renewable-Energy pdf https://www nampower com na/public/docs/projects/otjikoto/BIO P FS Biomass%20Project%20Fact%20Sheet 22May24 v6 2 pdf https://www nampower com na/public/docs/annualreports/NamPower Integrated Annual Report 2023 pdf https://www iea org/reports/projected-costs-of-generatingelectricity-2020

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