Nuclear Now or Later?

AUTHOR: David Jarrett and Team Editor@ RDJ Publishing and RDJ Group ChiefExecutiveOfficer

UraniumPricing-Jan2020toMar2024 Courtesy:Statista2024

The import of electricity and its perpetual presence and magnitude as part of Namibia’s consumption profile is making room for various options to plug that gap. Further added is the ambition of many to see the country reverse the import trend and make the country a net exporter. As pointed out in InFocus Namibia (March 2024), Namibia needs increased generation of an effective capacity of some 450 MW of mixed technologies for local demand with 220 MW already committed under the NamPower 2019 – 2023 Strategic Plan and several more MW’s under the Modified single-buyer (MSB) profile and South Africa is seeking to ramp up local generation in excess of 10 000 MW.

On the other hand, Namibia is an exporter of energy in the form of uranium yellow cake, contributing some N$ 4 7 billion to GDP in 2023. Based on figures from a Chamber of Mines piece, Namibia exports around 2 000 tonnes of Uranium that would equate to approximately 88 TWh or 22 years of Namibia’s current electricity demand Examining the Uranium industry, the Bank of Namibia in its March 2024 Economic Outlook, is expected to grow by 3 6 percent, down from a growth of 24.5 percent in 2023. The poor growth rate for 2024 is suggested to occur based on poor water availability although prices are improving.

Water shortages due to droughts are nothing new for the country and as they increase in intensity due to climate changes, the matter will require more long-term approaches. InFocus Namibia has pointed out the approaches to obtaining nuclear energy before are onerous and have a long-time based pathway for realisation. The

Namibian government has been at pains when asked why are we not pursuing nuclear energy (electricity) to point out that nuclear power is considered a ‘long-term” option and could be a part of the energy mix going forward In the same vein, it has also been noted by the Minister of Mines and Energy (Hon. Tom Alweendo) to be a long process even if a decision was to be made today.

So what would it take?

In the pursuit of solutions, the question of whether to adopt nuclear power remains a significant consideration. Recognizing the complexity and long-term implications of such a decision, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) offers guidance through its "Milestones Approach " This strategic framework, encompassing three distinct phases, towards informed choices regarding nuclear energy implementation

Why Nuclear: This initial phase focuses on clarifying the rationale behind considering nuclear energy as a viable option Namibia needs to evaluate their energy needs, environmental concerns, and strategic objectives to ascertain whether nuclear power aligns with their long-term development plans

Preparation (What and How): In the preparation phase, countries delve into the practical aspects of initiating a nuclear program. This requires painstaking planning, regulatory framework establishment, infrastructure development, and human resource capacity building The emphasis is on laying a solid foundation for safe, secure, and sustainable nuclear energy utilization

Build/Operation Phase: The culmination of the Milestones Approach involves the actual construction and operation of nuclear facilities This phase demands stringent adherence to established safety protocols, ongoing regulatory oversight, and proactive engagement with stakeholders to ensure transparency and accountability throughout the lifecycle of nuclear power generation.

Embarking on a nuclear program is no small endeavor as it requires substantial time, resources, and commitment

According to the IAEA, the setup of a nuclear program can span up to 15 years, with a subsequent operational lifespan extending over a century Such a significant undertaking underscores the need for careful consideration and strategicplanningtomitigaterisksandmaximizebenefits

Crucial to the success of any nuclear initiative is the alignment of interests among stakeholders and the judicious allocation of financial resources. The decision to pursue nuclear power must factor in the diverse needs and concerns of the various stakeholders, ranging from policymakersandindustryplayerstothegeneralpublicand environmental advocates. Moreover, the financial feasibility of a nuclear program hinges on prudent investment strategies, cost-benefit analyses, and long-term budgetaryplanning.Thislatterfactoriscrucial.

Fifth-Generation(5thGen)Systems

Looking ahead, the current evolution of nuclear technology holds promise for enhanced safety, efficiency, and sustainability Fifth-generation (5th Gen) nuclear systems, are currently in the Research and Development (R&D) phase, represent the next frontier in nuclear energy innovation With prototypes projected by 2029 and commercial production anticipated by 2034, these advanced reactors offer potential solutions to existing challenges

Awareness of what Namibia’s options are, will require InFocus Namibia to take the reader on a journey and this willtakeplacemonthlysowatchthisspace!

Readings:

https://www bon com na/CMSTemplates/Bon/Files/bon com na/fe/fe 37f31d-b0ea-46c8-aa25-ced752f1329d pdf https://www namibiansun com/local-news/nuclear-energy-a-longterm-consideration-alweendo-says2023-12-19 https://wits worldbank org/trade/comtrade/en/country/NAM/year/20 19/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/261210# https://chamberofmines org na/blog-post/rise-of-uranium-andpotential-for-namibian-economy/ https://world-nuclear org/information-library/nuclear-fuelcycle/introduction/nuclear-fuel-cycle-overview