R O A D S A N D T R A N S P O R T Decarbonising Transport - Which mode is the “Priority”?

AUTHOR: Chilombo (Olga) Priscila EconomicResearcher/Statistician@ RDJ Consulting

TThe process of achieving decarbonisation within the transport sector presents a significant challenge, both in terms of complexity and cost A viable approach to attaining this goal involves adopting a strategic method that prioritizes specific areas for initial action, gradually extending efforts to encompass all segments until the entire sector reaches its Net-Zero targets The identification of these priority areas necessitates a comprehensive evaluation of emissions levels associated with each mode of transportation. This evaluation must also account for the costs associated with decarbonization. The goal is to pinpoint the most readily achievable changes that can serve as a foundation for initiating the decarbonization process

This approach is essential because even though certain modes of transport may exhibit relatively lower emissions, the expenses linked to their decarbonisation could outweigh those of other modes. A pertinent example of this scenario is observable in rail transport, which contributes merely two percent of total emissions within the sector However, the process of decarbonizing rail transport has proven to be a gradual and costly endeavor, largely due to the substantial investment required for upgrading trains and overhauling the railway infrastructure

With a focus on the different modes of transport which comprise road transportation for both passengers and freight, aviation, shipping, and rail It therefore becomes evident that each mode's contribution to emissions within the transport sector varies. Additionally, the cost considerations tied to the prospect of decarbonizing each mode diverge significantly

Road transport is the preferred and most commonly used mode of transport for passengers (light-duty) and freight (heavy-duty) vehicles They include motorcycles, cars, taxis, buses, trucks and lorries. Therefore, whether you are an individual or a business owner, it is not unusual to find yourself using this form of transport on a daily basis. As a result of being a common and popular mode of transport, this sub-sector has the highest recorded emissions levels, accounting for 74% of transport emissions of which majority comes from passenger vehicles, followed by trucks carrying freight

Decarbonizing Road transport is an exercise that is not new, and as countries venture into clean energies, many alternative fuels for road transport are already being considered and implemented The options include hybridelectric, fully-electric, hydrogen vehicles In terms of decarbonization costs, this depends highly on the type of technology or energy source used, but what is obvious is that light duty vehicles would be less costly to decarbonize than heavy duty ones due to their less technological update and alternative fuel requirements.

Next up is aviation which tends to take the hotspot in discussions on actions against climate change Despite being in focus, aviation only accounts for 11 6% of transport emissions ItemitsjustunderonebilliontonnesofCO2each year which is around 2.5% of total global emissions. For decarbonization, this sub-sector requires the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), which is derived from renewable feedstocks that enables a reduction in net life cycle carbon dioxide emissions compared to conventional fuels

In terms of costs, the International Civil Aviation Organization reports that the capital expenditure on SAF production facilities is estimated at up to $48bn per year on average, which was less expensive than the typical worldwide capital expenditure on oil and gas production between 2014 to 2021 which stood at $420bn per year on average. By the year 2050, SAFs are said to make up most of theincrementalcostsofgettingtonet-zero(26%ofnon-fuel and fuel operating expenses in 2050), however, SAF from most next-generation sources will reduce in price as economiesofscaleareexploited.

The maritime shipping industry plays a vital role in world trade and is the backbone of the world economy, responsible for transporting and delivering between 80-90% of global trade by volume according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) However, International shipping is responsible for around 3% of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which is about 10.6% emissions contribution to the entire transport sector To put this into context, IRENA reports that if the international shipping sector were a country, “it would be the sixth- to seventh-largest CO2 emitter, with CO2 emission levels comparabletoGermany’s”.

Decarbonizing shipping entails the deployment of alternative fuels such as liquid biofuels, renewable gaseous fuels, hydrogen, methanol or even ammonia, along with upgrading engine and overall shipping structures In its Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 report, the InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)saysthatmaritime shipping needs an additional $6trn in investment over the next 50 years to meet decarbonisation goals,

While the IEA in its Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 report indicates that the entire maritime shipping needs an additional $6trn in investment over the next 50 years to meet decarbonisation goals, Tufton Investment Management (an investment manager focused on the shipping industry) reports that decarbonizing global shipping alone will cost at least $1 trillion Meeting mobilizing such funds however will greatly depend on the sector’s ability to attract significant investment from the private and public sectors, and having a solid regulatory framework.

Throughout history, the energy requirements of international shipping have predominantly been fulfilled by oil-based fuels, constituting more than 99% of the total demand. In contrast, the rail travel and freight domain, while not expansive, contributes minimally to emissions, accounting for just 1% of the overall transport emissions. This 1% equates to a mere 2% of the global energy-related CO2 emissions as of 2022 To align with the trajectory of the Net Zero Scenario, the international shipping sector must significantly escalate its adoption of alternative fuel sources These alternatives encompass biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, and electricity, all of which are essential for ushering in the necessary transition.

Despite all these recommendations, we can say that there is really no silver bullet as a solution to the decarbonisation challenge Reducing carbon emissions in transportation requires taking into consideration several things such as, including alternative fuel sources, raising technical and operational efficiencies, as well as the cost to achieving net zero goals Therefore, short- and mediumterm measures to increase the use of renewable energy sources and improve the overall energy efficiency of the transport system, as well as the cost factor will enable decision making processes when it comes to identifying priority areas of decarbonizations The less costly but highest emitting mode should take priority, and subsequently. This will have the benefit of not only reducing greenhouse gasses but also focus investments in sustainably cost-efficient technologies needed for the transition

What other means of decarbonising the transport sector has proven effective in your community? Talk to us at editor@rdjpublishing.africa noting that comments and queries are welcome

Readings: https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transp ortation-and-environment/greenhouse-gas-emissionstransportation/ https://www icao int/Meetings/a41/Documents/WP/wp 47 7 en.pdf https://trimis.ec.europa.eu/roadmaps/low-emissionalternative-energy-transport-alt https://www irena org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Public ation/2021/Oct/IRENA Decarbonising Shipping 2021 pdf https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020 https://ec europa eu/transport/sites/default/files/201106-28-erp-roadmap/2011-06-28-erp-roadmap-en pdf