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SOCIOECONOMIC SUMMARY
The region is made up of six counties. Appendix A is a summary of socioeconomic data that shows changes in trends for those counties, the State of Indiana, and the United States. This information is used to understand what is changing in the market and determine how to recover and improve on the trends seen pre-COVID-19 pandemic and experienced during the pandemic.
Population
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Populations across the region are declining and the trend is different than what is being seen in Indiana and the United States. This indicates that people and families are moving out of the region and not enough people are moving in to make up for that loss. The region is unique in that it is a rural community. While this is a draw for some individuals, others, specifically young professionals and young families, may be looking to live elsewhere where there are more amenities and job opportunities nearby, which is a common trend to see preCOVID-19.
The COVID-19 pandemic may have changed this trend – many places of employment had to close their doors in March 2020 and shift from working in an office to working from home. With this change, many people may change their preferences about where they live in relation to where they work. This creates an opportunity for the region to capture those individuals looking to slow down and move to a community that provides them the opportunity to settle down and grow.
Population Percent Change (2010-2020)
Figure A.1 – Total Population Percent Change, 2010 – 2020
Annualized Change in Population (CAGR)
Figure A.2 – Annualized Change in Population (CAGR)
Table A.1 – Total Population and Change, 2010 - 2020
Annualized Change in Population (CAGR)
Median Age
The median age in the U.S. and Indiana has grown by less than 0.3 percent each year. In most counties in the region, the median age is growing by more than 0.4 percent. This suggests that people are staying in the region to age and that fewer families (young families specifically) are moving in. Dubois County is the only county to not surpass the State and U.S. during the nine-year period.
Educational
Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) represent an annualized rate of change for a metric. For example, if a certain metric has changed from a value of 50 in 2010 to 100 in 2019, that is a 100 percent flat increase, but in terms of CAGR, the metric has changed at a rate of 8 percent each year. A CAGR represents how much a metric has changed in each year.
Figure A.3 – Annual Change in Median Age, 2010 -2019
Source: ACS Estimates
Compound Annual Growth Rate
A.4 – Median Age, 2010 – 2019
Attainment
Over 50 percent of the region’s educational attainment has either graduated from high school or dropped out of high school. This is more than the U.S. and State of Indiana’s rates. This could indicate that the region does not have many professional job opportunities for people to utilize their degrees, therefore they do not live in the region. Many students who graduate from high school and pursue higher education likely are not returning due to the lack of jobs in their field of study and opportunities available to them once they graduate with a degree. Similarly, the number of low-skilled jobs available may attract people to work right out of high school instead of going to pursue higher education. This would allow recent high school graduates to enter the workforce and earn money. In addition to this, several high schools are working with local colleges and employers to help high school students learn trades jobs (through vocational training programs) which help students get a higher paying job right out of high school in a field they trained in during class. Unfortunately, several challenges may cause employers and businesses to rethink relocating to rural communities. This could be due to the lack of an available skilled workforce or regular access to broadband services.
Poverty rates in the U.S. and Indiana have been decreasing between 2012 and 2019. The same can be said for the region, but when taking a closer look, the rates have increased in Orange and Pike counties. One of the main reasons poverty rates could be increasing is a change in the labor market and available opportunities. In both of these counties, the total population did decrease (2010 –2019) which indicates that people living there may have lost their jobs or taken a significant pay cut at their place of employment.
Percent of Population Below Poverty Line
Household Growth
The United States and Indiana are experiencing the greatest growth in renter households. Most counties are seeing an overall decline in households which is in line with their population trends. Unfortunately, Crawford County has lost the most households at a much faster rate compared to the rest of the region.
Source: ACS Estimates
The loss in population directly relates to the loss of occupied housing. No one is moving in to replace those who are moving out. This could be attributed to several reasons, but there is an opportunity to bring in new residents to the region since the COVID-19 pandemic started because of the rural nature of the area.
Housing vacancy trends have remained largely the same from 2010 to 2019 for Indiana and the U.S., suggesting a relatively stable market. Crawford County is the only one to experience a significant increase in housing vacancy indicating people are moving out with little evidence of people moving in.
Figure A.8 – Housing Vacancy as a Percent of Total Units, 2010 – 2019
Source: ACS Estimates
Dubois County is the only county to show a decline in vacancy rates – this means that Dubois is likely the most attractive county to live in across the region. Orange County only saw a slight increase in its vacancy numbers which increased by 16 units over a nine-year period.
Figure A.9 – Change in Occupied Housing, 2010 – 2019 CAGR Compounded
Table A.5 – Occupied Units, 2010 – 2019 CAGR
Housing Stock By Age
Housing age can be used to indicate development and growth opportunities in a community. All geographies have a relatively significant portion of older housing units (built before 1960). Perry County has the least number of new units from 2000 to 2019.
Figure A.11 – Housing Stock by Age, 2019
Percentage of Housing Units
Table A.7 – Housing Stock Numbers by Year Built
It should be noted that since 2014, less than 1,000 homes were built across all six counties. Since 2010, only 1,883 homes have been built with the majority of that construction happening in Dubois County.
Figure A.12 – Housing Stock by Year Built as a Percentage of Total Stock
Housing Stock by Year Built as Percent of Total Stock
Table A.8 – Housing Stock by Year Built as a Percentage of Total Stock
Household Size
The whole country is experiencing a decline in average household size. This is no different for the State of Indiana or the region. Simply put, families are decreasing in size. This is not uncommon. However, this change is directly related to the changes in the housing market. Several examples of this include the rate at which housing is built, housing and its affordability, increase in rent costs, location of jobs (especially as it relates to where a person or family lives), wages for those working, the increase in student debts for those who obtain college degrees, and overall mindset and perception.
Generation X and Millennials have very different life experiences from previous generations due to advancements in technology, inflation rates, and experiencing severe changes in the local and national economies. In addition to the uncertainty that comes with recovery from the pandemic, many people are looking for ways to save money in anticipation of losing a job but still be able to afford rent or mortgage payments, car payments, gas, food, and other basic needs. It is more difficult to be able to provide for a family today and save money simultaneously as market trends point to increased student debts and rent prices. To be able to provide for a household, families are choosing what they are financially capable of being able to afford which could mean reducing the number of children they have/care for, or delaying having children until they are older and more financially stable.
Family Households as Percent of Total Households
Family Households
Despite the average household size decreasing, the region is surpassing the trends of the nation and state in terms of family households. This indicates that several people who are choosing to locate in any of the six counties are likely moving there because of wanting to have and raise a family. The decline in percentages of family households in 2019 is likely due to the reasons explained by the decline in average household size. While the region is attractive for families, a current trend shows that households are wanting to have fewer children or wait to have children until they are more financially stable. Similarly, the region will have to be able to provide the desired housing stock for families in order to continue to attract families to move to its six counties.
are Family Households
Household Income
The median household income has increased across the nation, State, and all six counties in the region. This shows that the local economy is healthy and growing. Although only two counties surpass Indiana’s rate, this is incredibly important for the region because of how rural the area is. A large portion of the job market falls under blue-collar work, meaning that the industrial and manufacturing jobs that many of the residents work for are paying higher than minimum wage.
