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Features

Why Texas Retail CRE is a Smart Investment in 2023 Retail commercial real estate in Texas has been a top performer over the years, with an influx of population growth, high job growth and business-friendly policies.

Dallas Retail Development Booming with New Projects and Strong Market

The retail commercial real estate development scene in Dallas is heating up with a number of exciting projects underway.

More Than an Office: Inside Dallas’ AT&T Discovery District

The AT&T Discovery District is not your average corporate headquarters. That much is clear when you step foot onto the 6.5-acre campus in Downtown Dallas.

Retail Thrives in Austin Despite High Costs and Barriers to Entry

The retail sector in Austin, Texas, is experiencing needed growth due to the city's booming population and unmet demand for retail space.

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Houston Retail Sector

Demonstrates Resilience

Houston's retail sector has shown resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and pandemic-related disruptions.

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REDnews Events

Fort Worth Commercial Real Estate Forecast & Houston

Commercial Real Estate Forecast Summit

Event Profile: 2023 Houston Forecast Summit

How Virtual and Augmented Reality are Changing Retail Commercial Real Estate Development

The retail industry is changing at an unprecedented rate.

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Why Texas Retail CRE is a Smart Investment in 2023

BY BRANDI SMITH

Retail commercial real estate in Texas has been a top performer over the years, with an influx of population growth, high job growth and businessfriendly policies. Dallas, Austin and Houston have been experiencing robust economic growth, which has fueled an increase in demand for retail real estate. These cities have become the focus of major retailers and investors due to their favorable business environment, diverse population and strong demographics.

According to a report by JLL, the Texas retail market is thriving, with strong demand from investors and retailers alike. The report shows that the retail market in Texas saw an 8.4 percent increase in investment sales volume in 2020, with a total of $4.2 billion invested in the state's retail properties.

That doesn’t mean it’s been an easy road. The past few years have generated obstacles – some predicted, some unforeseen – for retail and its investors.

One of the most significant challenges facing retail investors is the rise of e-commerce, which has accelerated due to the pandemic. Online shopping has impacted brick-and-mortar retailers, leading to store closures and bankruptcies for companies that aren’t able to adapt.

The pandemic has also caused disruptions in supply chains, making it challenging for retailers to keep up with inventory demands. As a result, some retailers have been reluctant to sign new leases or renew existing ones, leading to an increase in vacancies in some markets.

Another challenge facing retail investors is the uncertainty around the future of work. As remote work becomes more prevalent, the demand for office space may decrease, leading to a domino-effect decrease in foot traffic to retail properties in urban areas.

Dr. Daniel Oney, Research Director at The Texas A&M University Texas Real Estate Research Center, expects high interest rates will continue to be a hindrance. Still, he believes Texas markets will perform better than the rest of the nation, including the retail sector, which has been in a state of recovery over the past few years. The primary reason is population growth.

“The growth that these markets have been seeing has mostly been growth out of their suburbs. In Dallas-Fort Worth, it’s Collin and Denton counties. In Houston, it’s the north and south side of the market. Austins’ growing in most directions,” Dr. Oney elaborated. “That population growth, along with the job growth and the income growth that comes with it, is what’s holding up these retail markets.”

According to the research center’s 2023 outlook, “Texas employment growth on a year-over-year basis continues to outpace expectations and long-term trends across industries and in the big four Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).” And as a result, all three major Texas markets have seen significant construction activity. In addition, there has been a resurgence in interest in reinvesting in shopping malls, with many being converted to new retail models, as REDnews has documented in previous articles.

“People are out, they're out shopping. It's not just online. They're interested in getting back into stores,” said Dr. Oney.

While interest rates may slow things down, Dr. Oney believes that these markets should still perform well unless there is a significant recession. This suggests that investors should keep a close eye on the Texas markets, particularly in the retail sector, as they may offer some unique opportunities for those looking to invest in commercial real estate.

Dr. Daniel Oney

“The growth that these markets have been seeing has mostly been growth out of their suburbs. That population growth, along with the job growth and the income growth that comes with it, is what’s holding up these retail markets.”

Dallas Retail Development Booming With New Projects and Strong Market

BY BRANDI SMITH

The retail commercial real estate development scene in Dallas is heating up with a number of exciting projects underway. From new shopping centers to mixed-use developments, the city is seeing a wave of construction that is set to bring fresh energy and new opportunities to the area.

One of the most anticipated projects is the redevelopment of the Valley View Mall. The mall, located in the heart of Dallas, first opened its doors in 1973. Once a popular shopping destination for residents and visitors, the mall began to empty with the emergence of new shopping centers and the rise of online retail. The property’s last tenant, AMC Theatres, shut down in early 2021, though most of the stores closed between 2015 and 2017.

In March, demolition began on a 300,000-square-foot building that remained on the property, a process that could take months.

Beck Ventures hopes to facilitate a significant renovation of the property, turning it into a mixed-use development called Dallas Midtown that would revitalize the area and bring new life to the community.

"When visitors come to Dallas Midtown, they won't want to leave. All of the pieces fit together like a hand and glove. We have focused on every detail

to ensure Dallas Midtown is both a pleasurable and memorable experience," added

Jeffrey Beck, Chairman of Beck Ventures.

The $4 billion development would include a mix of residential, office, and retail spaces. The project will also feature a 20-acre park and a luxury hotel. The goal is to create a walkable community that offers a range of amenities and services.

Jarrod Beck Jeffrey Beck Scott Beck

"Dallas Midtown is located on prime real estate with great potential. We know this development will become the most sought after address for businesses and residents," said Beck Managing Partner Jarrod Beck.

The project isn’t advancing as quickly as Beck would like due to discussions with city leaders, but CEO Scott Beck said things are lining up.

"We want there to be a world class project there," said Scott Beck, Beck’s CEO, told CBS News in March. "We want there to be something we're proud of there and that's why we've been holding onto the property for the past 10 years, even though it's been as difficult as it is."

The developers of Dallas Midtown have emphasized the project's commitment to sustainability. The development will feature green spaces, bike lanes, and electric car charging stations. The project's energy-efficient design is expected to reduce energy consumption by 40 percent.

Another notable development is the Highland Park Village expansion, which will add a new, three-story building to the luxury shopping center. The expansion will feature more than 70,000 square feet of retail space, including a new cinema and several high-end restaurants. The project is scheduled to be completed in 2023.

In addition to these larger projects, there are also a number of smaller-scale developments underway throughout the city. The Bishop Arts District is seeing a wave of new retail and restaurant openings, while the Deep Ellum neighborhood is attracting a number of trendy retailers and art galleries.

The numbers back up Dallas’ retail strength as vacancy rates are dropping and rental rates are on the rise. The city's strong job growth and population growth are driving demand for new retail spaces. According to CBRE, “DFW retail sales per square foot has exceeded the U.S. average in most years since 2006” and CBRE expects that trend to not just continue, but strengthen, through 2024.

The retail commercial real estate development scene in Dallas is vibrant and growing. With a number of exciting projects underway and a strong market for retail spaces, the city is poised to continue its growth and development in the years to come.

Shops at The Gate

More Than an Office: Inside Dallas’ AT&T Discovery District

BY MIA GOULART

The AT&T Discovery District is not your average corporate headquarters. That much is clear when you step foot onto the 6.5-acre campus in Downtown Dallas.

The Origin Story

In 2013, AT&T was searching for a new home for its global office and enlisted the help of powerhouse global architecture and design firm Gensler to lead the charge. With about 20 potential addresses in the mix, the team eventually narrowed it down to just two, and after much deliberation, former AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson decided to go all-in on revamping the outdated corporate campus.

But this would be no easy feat. The original campus was stiffly corporate and surrounded by overgrown oak trees and needed a complete makeover if the company was going to stay competitive. Gensler was up for the challenge and began piecing together a macro picture of the potential district. It was an opportunity to create a uniquely branded experience, and AT&T was eager to see what Gensler could create.

Fast forward a bit, and Gensler assembled a killer team to bring the new amenitized workspace to life. AT&T loved what they saw and gave the green light to move forward, and as the project expanded, so did the budget.

All Photos Courtesy of AT&T and Gensler.

According to Barry Hand, Principal and Regional Cities + Urban Design Practice Area Leader at Gensler, the focus shifted toward creating a branded experience within the workplace. And though AT&T already owned the surrounding property, the desired renovation would require repositioning and converting some of the existing office space into retail and dining.

“We knew we needed to unify all four blocks to create one walkable pedestrian environment with architectural amenities that could be utilized by their employees,” Hand said.

But just as things were picking up steam, a big change was in store. In 2018, AT&T acquired Time Warner and became WarnerMedia, moving the needle of its brand from a telecommunication company to content provider—and the project’s design had to evolve to reflect the new direction. It was an opportunity for AT&T to showcase its brand in a new, much bigger way.

Stephenson wanted to create something, not just for his own employees, but for the people of Dallas, and from there, the AT&T Discovery District was born.

The Vision

During the initial development process, AT&T and Gensler visited several toptier corporate campuses across the United States, all of which had stringent security measures in place. Roger Ferris, Head of Creative & Digital Experience for the AT&T Discovery District, recalled that the team had to go through two to three rounds of security clearance just to enter, and although safety is crucial for any project, AT&T and Gensler opted to design the Discovery District with a distinctive, community-centered approach, in line with the CEO’s vision.

“He [Stephenson] completely turned the paradigm of the standard office campus on its head in making it accessible by the public,” Ferris said, “and that is what sets us apart.”

The Digital Experience

For the digital experience design, Gensler brought Justin Rankin, Regional DXD Practice Area Leader and Studio Director, to lead the team in strategically integrating technology throughout the campus in a prime example of modern media architecture.

Ferris said Rankin and the DXD team were instrumental in establishing AT&T’s canvas for creative expression, and Rankin’s involvement in the project marked his largest undertaking to date. In partnership with others

from Gensler, AT&T, and team of digital technologists, a wholistic experience strategy was created that left nothing to chance to determine how best to engage not only company employees, but also the broader community.

Hand likened the need for unique content to tools in a toolbelt, and Gensler and AT&T devoted countless hours of research and creative concepting to determine the key platforms that would bring this vision to life, including a 30-foot rotating sculpture (The Globe) and a 104-foot tall media wall on which you’ll find placemaking pieces at the top of every hour, each day showcasing dynamic real-time immersive digital art that changes with the season, time of day and weather, 24/7/365. Plus, the system is easily customizable, ensuring the projected content remains relevant and engaging no matter what’s happening at any given moment.

Inside the headquarters lobby a high-resolution wall complements a lowresolution white “veil” that covers the ceiling and adjacent walls of the second-floor mezzanine, creating a seamless canvas that can be used to project immersive scenes, such as an ocean with life-size silhouettes of blue whales swimming overhead. But the most impressive aspect of all is perhaps one not

visible, but the network connecting each platform across 300,000 square feet in delivering content to over 125 million LED pixels in real time.

The interconnectedness of every surface and speaker, both low- and highresolution, is an extraordinary feat, given that there are over 62 speakers, 23 audio zones and over 70 million pixels in the lobby alone. The media playback ecosystem is one of the most sophisticated public programmable systems outside of a theme park or sports stadium, so to have it at AT&T’s headquarters for public enjoyment is special, to say the least.

“Solidifying the technical architecture meant strategic thinking and solid partnership with many teams,” Rankin said. “Documentation of standard operating procedure was needed so that we could hand off our knowledge of these systems to others so that they could then operate them efficiently.”

What’s more, the last nine months of the design process coincided with COVID-19, which posed a challenge for the teams to collaborate and bring the people-centric project to fruition without physically being together.

To ease the challenge, Rankin and the DXD team developed a 3D software which allowed them to upload content being concepted to see how it cascaded from each element and to visualize it before production. Such technology has remained beneficial.

“We still use that system,” Rankin said. “It’s beyond the standard workflow of architecture, and we very much included architecture in designing the tool itself.”

And as AT&T continues to ideate new concepts, Gensler remains a valuable partner in transforming them into reality and adding them to the project’s content library, which currently boasts over 40 hours of original theming created exclusively for the Discovery District, making it the only project in the world with such a large collection of non-advertising content.

“It’s the most impressive project anyone on my team has been a part of,” Rankin said, “and probably ever will be.”

The Globe

The AT&T Discovery District is not just a collection of buildings and outdoor spaces, but a carefully curated work of art designed as an immersive experience for visitors for all to enjoy. The media ecosystem throughout the plaza sets the mood, enveloping all who pass through in a captivating digital display. The goal, after all, was to create a special place for the public to enjoy, and the campus’ design certainly reflects that.

But there is one element that helps to unify the rest: The Globe, a 30-foot spherical adaption of the AT&T logo at the center of the plaza.

The design process was entirely digital, constructed as a 3D model before being transferred to the fabricator who then rolled 15 aluminum profile “ribs” to create triple compound curves, a feat that had never been done before. The ribs were then cast in Europe and bent in the UK, where the entire structure was built before being disassembled and transported to the U.S. for final assembly on site.

The Globe’s mirrored shell reflects the surrounding area, yet it’s what’s inside that makes it truly unique. Embedded with six motion sensors and over 300,000 high-brightness color LEDs, Gensler’s design prompts different content modes with varying energy levels that become more animated as visitors spend more time inside, with 20 speakers and six subwoofers delivering an immersive audio experience created in collaboration with Made Music Studio. And because The Globe rotates on its axis, Ferris said it can be turned to face the street for a parade or performance, all making it one of the most popular selfie spots in Downtown Dallas.

A Source of Pride

Every element of the AT&T Discovery District, like The Globe, was meticulously crafted with purpose and intention. What started with modest aspirations has transformed into the hub of Dallas’ CBD, offering a mix of retail, dining options and outdoor space, which has created a sense of pride for both AT&T and the City of Dallas, with surrounding businesses benefitting from the volume of people transiting through the area each day.

Not only does the Discovery District serve as a venue for community events, like watch parties for local sports teams, but it stands as a testament to the importance of sustainability, as AT&T invested in wind energy to power the entire campus. But while some might see it as a hub for technology, art and culture, its true value lies in bringing people together.

Community is ever so important, and the Discovery District will remain a beacon of hope and connection for all who wish to embrace it.

Retail Thrives in Austin Despite High Costs and Barriers to Entry

BY BRANDI SMITH

The retail sector in Austin, Texas, is experiencing needed growth due to the city's booming population and unmet demand for retail space. The city’s population growth, particularly on the outskirts in areas like Kyle, Hutto, Liberty Hill and Georgetown, is a positive factor driving demand for retail space. However, there are also limiting factors such as high overall costs for land, vertical and horizontal construction, higher interest rates, and barriers to entry in certain markets due to lack of infrastructure, according to Adam Zimel, Principal of Endeavor Real Estate Group.

“We really are not seeing much in the way of first-generation retail construction projects due to those higher costs,” Zimel explained, referring to larger traditional power center and soft goods projects. “Most secondgeneration space has been absorbed, leaving next to no junior anchor boxes available.”

There are exceptions, especially in suburban areas, such as Kyle. Endeavor is currently leasing pad sites at Dry River District, shadow anchored by Costco, EVO Entertainment and The Home Depot. Across I-35 in Endeavor’s Amberwood Ranch development, pad sites are available for lease or sale.

Zimel did share that most new retail projects are smaller in nature, primarily led by pad and small shop tenant expansion, which have been the most economically viable. Anchor expansion has primarily been in the grocery category, with H-E-B and Costco remaining the primary anchors expanding in this category. However, soft goods expansion is also starting to take place, with retailers such as Target, TJX, Hobby Lobby, Academy, Floor & Décor, Five Below and Ulta actively working on deals.

The food industry continues to dominate the retail sector, with many restaurants adapting their prototypes to cater to both consumer habits shifting to convenience purchases and higher overall construction costs. Some have turned towards alternative product types, such as end caps versus freestanding units, pick-up windows, consolidating footprints or simply opening fewer units. The demand for restaurants has outpaced that of grocery stores, indicating that consumers eat out more now than ever.

“Retail has gained favor in the investor and capital market as it has proven resilient, even amidst growing online sales. Last year marked the first year in over a decade that store openings outpaced store closings,” Zimel said. “Sales continue to remain positive, year over year. Consumers are paying a premium for products and services given inflation, but money is still being spent regardless of price increases.”

Consumers are spending their money at places such as The Domain, a mixeduse development in North Austin that includes a variety of retail, dining and entertainment options. Another popular destination for shopping and dining is South Congress Avenue. Known as "SoCo," the retail offerings on South Congress Avenue range from unique local boutiques to larger, well-known

brands. Visitors can find everything from vintage clothing and jewelry to home decor and furniture. Many of the shops on South Congress feature locally made or sourced goods, giving shoppers a taste of Austin's vibrant arts and culture scene.

“Those specific projects and areas are destinations sought out by local residents and visitors to town,” said Zimel. “Many of these areas attract emerging brands and established high end brands. For retailers, these locations serve to drive sales and also grow their brand presence and cache.”

Zimel noted that these areas and projects offer unique shopping and food options, but they are no different from H-E-B building a unique experience on Lake Austin Boulevard or finding an Australian take on breakfast at Proud Mary Café.

“I think they are overall reminders that the consumer still desires to gather in activated environments,” Zimel said. “Whether shopping or dining, people desire to get out of their residence and have an experience that they can’t get at home.”

Adam Zimel

Houston Retail Sector Demonstrates Resilience

BY BRANDI SMITH

Houston's retail sector has shown resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and pandemic-related disruptions. Retail tenants have remained in expansion mode in 2022 and 2023 so far, driven by continued demand for food and beverage and discount stores.

According to Cushman & Wakefield Managing Director Eric H. Lestin, new retail lease deals executed last year remained above the three-year pre-pandemic average for the second consecutive year, shrugging off persistently elevated inflation as well as concerns surrounding a looming recession and rising interest rates.

"Retail real estate’s post-pandemic revival has not let up. Fueled by shoppers’ and diners’ renewed enthusiasm for the in-person experience and retailers’ and restauranteurs’ optimism about long-term growth, tenants continue to seek out high-quality store locations amid limited supply," said Lestin, who leads Cushman & Wakefield’s Retail Services Group.

He added that Houston's long-term growth drivers, including strong population and household growth as well as affordability, are reasons for continued optimism and point to why the Bayou City continues to attract new residents and retailers. Lestin highlighted the largest leases were driven by tenants in fast-growing suburban locations, chasing demographic and economic strengths found in these areas. For example, he said, in the fourth quarter of 2022, H-E-B signed a 100,000-SF lease that will anchor Howard Hughes' Village Green at Bridgeland Central, a 23-acre mixed-use development within the 925-acre Bridgeland Central that will house office, retail, multifamily, dining, and entertainment space, at full build-out. Also, in the fourth quarter of 2022, Randall's supermarket signed a 66,000-SF lease in the Panther Creek Center in The Woodlands.

Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, Houston has continued to attract new retail developments. Midway's East River project is a prime example.

"Phase One of East River is nearing construction completion, and planning has begun on phase two!" said Lacee Jacobs, Midway's Senior Vice President of Strategic Leasing + Advisory. "The earliest openings will be this Fall with the later happening in early 2024." East River aims to create a new "third place" for the community to gather and enjoy, according to Jacobs.

"We always focus on bringing uses and concepts that fill a need for the surrounding neighborhood," she said. "For East River, we are curating a collection of homegrown concepts, local and regional business owners who are very much trailblazers in their respective fields. East River presented a rare opportunity for us to intentionally seek out uses that feel authentic and unique – concepts the consumers will seek out."

Jacobs hopes that East River will enrich lives by providing a place for people to connect with each other outside of home or work that all neighbors can be proud of.

"It’s a place for the community to gather and enjoy an ice cream with their kids, grab a cup of coffee with a neighbor or just enjoy the outdoor pocket parks," she said.

East River's location along the Bayou makes the project even more special for Jacobs.

"I’m especially excited for people to experience this side of the downtown skyline. As the Bayou fronting buildings near completion, I continue to be impressed by the view and experience of being on the water," she said. "There really is nothing like it in Houston - for so long we have turned our projects and developments away from the Bayou. Unless you have been out there touring with us lately, you just have no idea what a dynamic spot this is."

Mixed-use developments are a common trend surrounding new retail projects in Houston, as are competitive socializing concepts.

“It has grown by 386% since the beginning of 2021, according to a new report in Cushman & Wakefield’s The Edge magazine,” shared Lestin. “The segment is grabbing the attention of landlords looking to breathe new life into underused spaces, especially in properties with large-format vacancies.”

He cited examples Puttshack and Flight Club, which secured sites in Houston before landing in Dallas, NYC and Austin. Lestin added that Activate Games, an active gaming experience, has signed a lease for their first Houston location.

“Competitive socializing venues tend to have a domino effect on the centers they occupy by attracting more foot traffic and increased sales at nearby businesses,” he said.

Houston's retail real estate market has shown remarkable resilience in recent years, thanks to its strong population and household growth, affordability, and pro-business environment. For those reasons, it is likely to remain a retail and business hub for years to come.

East River Phase 1 construction

Fort Worth Commercial Real Estate Forecast

April 19, 2023 • Billy Bob’s Fort Worth

Panel 1: Retail, Office & Industrial Market Update: Robert Young, Weitzman, Bill Kitchens, CoStar, Marshall Mays, Colliers, James Stein, CBRE, Sarah LanCarte, LanCarte Commercial Real Estate

Panel 3: Major Developments Shaping Fort Worth: Scot Bennett, The Beck Group, Andy Taft, Downtown Fort Worth, Ashley Tinsley, Evans Consulting and Construction

Panel 2: Multifamily Update: Mark Allen, Onyx Legacy Realty Group, Jorge Abreu, Elevate Commercial Investment Group, Al Silva, Marcus & Millichap, Venkat Avasarala, Stryker Properties

Panel 4: Economic Development & Investment Opportunities: Sara Thurber, Fort Worth Economic Development Partnership, Rex Glenndenning, REX Real Estate, Alex S. Bryant, Street Realty

Houston Commercial Real Estate Forecast Summit

March 28, 2023 • Maggiano’s Little Italy Post Oak

Panel 3: Retail Update: Opportunities and Trends – State of the Market: (L to R) Eric Lestin, Cushman & Wakefield, Christie Amezquita, CCIM, SHOP Companies, Lacee Jacobs, Midway, Thomas Nguyen, CBRE, Emily Durham, JLL

Panel 1: Office Market Update – State of the Market: (L to R) – Patrick Duffy, MCR, Colliers, Brooks Howell, Gensler, Steven M. Seltzer, Sheridan Commercial Real Estate Advisory Group, Amber Carter, Seven Fourteen Realty Inc, Abby Alford, CBRE, Bob Cromwell, Moody Rambin, Dougal Cameron, Cameron Management, Trey Miller, CCIM, Boxer Property

Panel 2: Industrial Real Estate Update – State of the Market: (L to R) Christopher Daugherty, Altus Group, Peyton Easley, CCIM, Titan Commercial, Wes Williams, Colliers, Boone Smith, Stream Realty Partners, Christen Vestal, MBA, Provident Realty Advisors, Trent Perez, PRD Land Development Services, LLC.

Panel 4: Apartment & Multifamily Market Overview – State of the Market: (L to R) Bruce McClenny ApartmentData.com From MRI Software, Clint Duncan CBRE, Martin Bronstein, BHW Capital, J.C. Clemens Jr, Flagship Capital Partners

Altus Group (L to R) – Christopher Daugherty & Morgan Atkinson

Seven Fourteen Realty Inc.

CIVE – Leci Wood

BY RAY HANKAMER

2023 Houston Forecast Summit

Keynote Speaker: Robert W. (Bill) Gilmer, Director, UH Bauer Institute for Regional Planning, Bauer College of Business, University of Houston Takeaway: The U.S. government is currently trying to tame inflation caused by the cash infusion during the pandemic. The challenge is to do this without causing a recession, which requires a delicate fiscal approach.

• We will have no recession, but a very serious slowdown coming soon.

• Trillions of dollars during the pandemic went into the economy via (a) direct stimulation checks to individuals, (b) PPP loans to businesses, and (c) EIDL or Economic Impact Disaster Loans. Some of this cash will be paid back to the government over time, but much will be “forgiven,” adding to the national debt.

• Massive cash injections resulted in increased consumer savings (estimated in the trillions of dollars), stock market purchases driving the market higher and accelerated consumer spending on a large scale. After the pandemic was over, the public continued spending money, fueling ongoing inflation, and a 15% increase in retail sales.

• Inflation eats away at the value of the dollar, which erodes equity buildup in homes and other real estate investments. The goal is to return inflation to the 2% range.

• The recent bank failures can be regarded as “distant thunder” caused by fiscal imbalances in the U.S.

• We are beginning to make some progress in arresting inflation and falling oil prices have helped.

• The Houston economy in general mirrors that of the U.S.

• Houston replaced all jobs lost during COVID by April 2022, but other Texas metros rebounded faster than Houston, largely due to our continuing strong (but declining) dependence on the oil and gas industry. Midland-Odessa’s recovery was slower, like Houston’s.

• Houston is at “practical full employment” with only 4.5% of the workplace out of work or transitioning between jobs.

• New home sales here are down 10% compared to pre-pandemic, resulting in a boost to apartment occupancy. Houston factories, largely dependent on oil and gas work, are in sharp contraction.

• Rather than investing in new research, exploration and production, oil companies are instead cleaning up their balance sheets and distributing profits to investors. The rig count is down 30%. Oil and gas as a percentage of our local economy continues to slowly shrink.

Office Market Update—State of the Market

Moderator: Patrick Duffy, Colliers

Panelists: Abby Alford, CBRE; Amber Carter, Seven Fourteen Realty Inc.; Bob Cromwell, Moody Rambin; Brooks Howell, Gensler; Dougal Cameron, Cameron Management; Steven M. Seltzer, Sheridan Commercial Real Estate Management Group; Trey Miller, Boxer

Takeaway: The office sector in Houston is experiencing a broad shake-up as tenants move downward to lower classes. Some older buildings are almost empty, while some new buildings are full, but select markets like the Katy Freeway, The Woodlands and Uptown have full or near-full buildings. This cycle has been seen before and is expected to work itself out.

• Greater Houston, which is the size of the state of New Jersey, cannot be thought of as “a market,” but as many different submarkets with specific divisions even within the submarkets. It goes building by building, largely according to the age of the building itself. There are myriad pockets of strength and weakness in the office sector, sprinkled all over our regional map.

• Overall, reluctant workers from home are seeing the writing on the wall, and that is that they will be pressured to return to the office. Bosses are working with office building landlords to create a better environment as an incentive/reward for the returning employee. Nationally, the tech sector has reversed direction and is now starting to require “back to the office.” In recent years, Houston’s CBD has added about 5,000 residential units, thanks to subsidies/incentives from City Hall, and our next mayor will have a big impact on this trend.

• When leases expire, some companies are relocating to be near the residences of their employees to reduce commuting time and expense, one of the appealing aspects of working from home. Working from home “spoiled” employees, but studies are slowing reduced productivity from home workers. Savings on childcare expenses are another reason that employees are reluctant to return to distant central workplaces.

• Buildings less than five years old are near full. Pre-1990 buildings have far lower occupancies due to a lack of amenities now expected by returning workers. Overall, Houston has 20–25% vacancy, but as mentioned above, averages are deceiving, and one must evaluate the market more carefully.

Ray Hankamer

• Boxer has successfully experimented with building out entire floors into “spec suites,” which are ready for move-in, as a strategy to avoid extended custom build-out times given permitting delays, unavailability of materials, and other exasperating issues, all of which can be catastrophic to a tenant needing immediate access to a lease space.

• Some office buildings lend themselves to repositioning as residential, but overall, this is a challenging and costly process, and many buildings may be better off being razed. This causes a conundrum for owners (and lenders) of low-occupancy older buildings that are still encumbered by debt.

• Even landmark architectural buildings like Pennzoil Place in the CBD are running at occupancy rates below 50%. What to do with them?

• Owners of “challenged” older buildings are working to add “tenant amenities,” such as food, conference space, fitness centers, outdoor gathering areas, 24-hour accessibility, enhanced security and eco-friendly features, but often there is neither room in and around the building nor money to bring them up to a level that is competitive with new buildings.

• New office buildings that are a part of mixed-use developments are in high demand.

• Investment sales are largely in a holding pattern as lenders and investors are waiting to see how the office sector shakes out. Why buy when interest rates are high, and why sell when prices are low? Lenders who are afraid of having to take back and office building are reluctant to entertain loan applications. What is the exit strategy for the lender on a foreclosed office building?

• B and C suburban buildings are attractive to many small business tenants that need low rent payments. Some larger buildings are bringing in food service via food trucks, and in some cases, cafeteria or catered service on a large scale.

• Statewide, Texas landlords are making the transition to “green.”

Industrial Real Estate Update—State of the Market

Moderator: Christopher Daugherty, Altus Group

Panelists: Boone Smith, Stream Realty Partners; Christen Vestal, Provident Realty Advisors; Peyton Easley, Titan Commercial; Trent Perez, PRD Land Development Services, LLC; Wes Williams, Colliers

Takeaway: Full steam ahead!

• Thirty million square feet are in the pipeline, but land is getting so pricey that deals are not penciling out. Another 30 million square feet were absorbed in 2022, and high land costs are pushing developers further out.

• Rates are up 20%, and another big jump is expected.

• A high percentage of deals are pre-leased, with pre-leasing momentum increasing as the building nears completion.

• There is currently a large demand across the metro area, with port-specific warehouses leading the race. The southeast sector is the hottest, but the north and south beltway are strong, too. Baytown is overflowing toward the east, and 288 S/Pearland, Brookshire, Sealy and Fulshear are heating up.

• Since “time is king,” already built spec facilities are in the highest demand. Fifty-two percent of growth is coming from the expansion of existing tenants.

• Rental rates have doubled in the past three years. Tenants wanting to renew are having sticker shock with up to 30% increases on renewal, but without rent growth, there will be no new construction.

• Some lease terms are shrinking from five to three years.

• Construction costs are beginning to ease as contractors get a little hungry.

• Developers are having more to worry about. Property taxes are going up with higher appraised values; insurance is soaring; cities are increasing requirements for developers; flood maps are changing; loan escrow requirements are increasing, restricting cash flow; and retention requirements are increasing.

• It is getting harder to attract lenders, and investment sales are slowing as buyers wait to see if interest rates will abate. Both buyers and sellers are playing the waiting game. Some industrial owners are finding that their existing user-tenants are better buyers than investors are.

• “Real estate is the best hedge against inflation.”

• Much larger warehouses are in demand now than before, up from 175,000 square feet to 500,000 square feet.

• Houston has graduated from a local to a regional distribution center.

• Industrial construction costs have soared $130,000 to $145,000 per square foot without office buildout.

Retail Update: Opportunities & Trends—State of the Market

Moderator: Eric Lestin, Cushman & Wakefield

Panelists: Christie Amezquita, SHOP Companies; Emily Durham, JLL; Lacee Jacobs, Midway; Thomas Nguyen, CBRE Takeaway: The demand for space is high, especially for food, beverage and entertainment tenants. Long buildout periods are causing problems for landlords and tenants.

• First-time operators are viewed skeptically by choosy landlords. First-time operators often must start in the far suburbs where rents are cheaper to test out their concepts. Tenants talk to each other about offerings from various landlords, so landlords are advised to hire competent advisors.

• Long buildouts deny revenues to both tenant and landlord.

• EADO offers old building conversion-to-retail opportunities, but it can be difficult and costly, although sometimes it can be more affordable.

• Houston has many exciting missed-use concepts, anchored by creative food and beverage tenants.

• More and more medical tenants are leasing in shopping centers, but lifestyle and entertainment continue to dominate. We are seeing some pediatric and veterinary practices in retail centers.

• Landlords need to better understand the economics of their tenants’ businesses.

• Tenants are offering more “experiential” concepts in their spaces, such as batting cages in Dick’s Sporting Goods.

• Restaurants survived during COVID with food and drink to go, and customers are still in the habit of that. The food and beverage operators who did not adapt to “to go” are hurting. “COVID curbside” never subsided.

• Second-generation food and beverage spaces are in such high demand that many do not hit the market. Houston has one of the top food and beverage markets in the country, largely due to our diversity. We are exporting some of our concepts now to other cities and markets.

• Trends continue toward food and beverage in mixed-use, walkable developments. At the same time, demand continues for end cap drive-thru spaces, which became popular during the pandemic. Demand continues for to-go food and short-term parking for food pick-up.

• Fifty percent pre-lease requirements are now the norm for lenders. Retail new development is waiting a bit now for 2024–25 to see how the economy does. Expect a gentler growth pace.

• Retail development continues to expand to places like Magnolia and Fulshear.

• Some food service concepts are not adaptable to drive-thru window service, which requires a very short prep time.

• Restaurants are looking at empty spaces with drive-thru windows, like closed banks.

Apartment Market Overview—State of the Market

Moderator: Bruce McClenny, ApartmentData.com

Panelists: Clint Duncan, CBRE; JC Clemens, Jr., Flagship Capital Partners; Martin Bronstein, BHW Capital

Takeaway: The building material supply chain remains challenging, and the multifamily market is seeing movement up and down the quality ladder. Occupancy in this market is being driven by people who are priced out of homeownership.

• Rent increases are settling down; landlords are hesitant to lose a good tenant on renewal by upping rates too much. Rents are down 3.5% in Austin.

• Fifteen thousand units were delivered in 2022, and 24,000 units are currently under construction; 18,000 units will be delivered in 2023.

• Costs have grown from $100,000 to as much as $180,000 per unit. Some of this is due to the addition of many amenities, including meeting rooms, offices, walking paths, yoga rooms and many other “lifestyle” items.

• Many developers are waiting for interest rates to stabilize. Lower LTV loans are becoming the norm, with some as low as 55%.

• Investment sales are pausing a bit in this interest rate environment as buyers fear overbuilding coupled with moderating demand. If you have low assumable debt, your project is ripe for a good sale.

• A careful developer does an in-depth study of existing competitors within a mile or so of their proposed project to decide what amenities to include in their project.

• Class B, C and D projects are benefiting from the inability of tenants to afford single-family homes. During tough times, people don’t move into Class A.

• It is harder to obtain fully entitled sites for development as cities toughen their requirements, for example, pertaining to drainage and retention. Developers need far longer due diligence periods to qualify a site.

• Higher tax appraisals lead to higher taxes and higher insurance bills.

• There is liquidity, and deals are getting done, but at higher rates.

• Sharply rising loan escrow requirements for taxes and insurance put a crimp on developer cash flow.

• Management costs are increasing while management companies are stressed to find qualified professional employees.

• Rents are up, but so are operating costs. Rent increases are stressing tenants.

• Eviction proceedings are easing up for landlords as we move away from COVID, but they remain a pesky problem for all involved.

How Virtual and Augmented Reality are Changing Retail Commercial Real Estate Development

BY BRANDI SMITH

The retail industry is changing at an unprecedented rate. Customers are looking for immersive shopping experiences, while retailers are seeking innovative ways to stay ahead of the competition. This is where virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) come in. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize the retail industry, and, as a result, retail commercial real estate development.

VR and augmented reality AR are two related, but distinct technologies that are transforming the way we interact with the world around us. VR is a technology that uses computer-generated environments to create a completely immersive experience. With VR, users wear a headset that completely blocks out the real world so they can interact with a virtual environment as if they were physically there. On the other hand, AR is a technology that overlays digital information onto the real world. With AR, users can see and interact with digital content superimposed on top of the physical environment, using a device such as a smartphone or smart glasses. While both VR and AR could transform a variety of industries, they differ in their level of immersion and the way they blend the digital and physical worlds.

In the retail industry, VR and AR can provide customers with immersive and interactive experiences. According to a report by MarketsandMarkets, the AR and VR market is expected to reach $114 billion by 2027, with the retail sector being a key driver of growth. Retailers are investing in these technologies to provide their customers with a more engaging shopping experience. Some of the most exciting use cases for AR and VR in retail include virtual try-on, interactive product catalogs and virtual showrooms.

VR and AR are also transforming the commercial real estate development industry. These technologies are being used to design and market new retail spaces, as well as to attract and retain tenants. For example, VR can be used to create virtual tours of retail spaces, allowing potential tenants to explore the space before signing a lease. AR can be used to overlay virtual signage on physical storefronts, providing retailers with a new way to promote their products and services.

“With advancements in augmented and virtual realities, you can expect to see once technology-immune industries like commercial real estate to experience rapid growth in online competition,” said Goman+York Analyst Dave Correia.

These technologies are also helping developers to create more efficient and sustainable buildings.

“Architects can use VR at the initial design phase to test and evaluate different design ideas. This enables more informed design solutions. AR technology can be used for developing virtual design at full scale,” explained Surabhi Kejriwal, Real Estate Research Leader for Deloitte. “The use of virtual components for physical objects can save the current prototype costs. Further, companies can add nuanced details around fixtures and fittings to create a better sense of the finished development.”

However, there are some potential challenges associated with the use of VR and AR in retail commercial real estate development. These include the high cost of implementation, the need for specialized skills and training and the potential for technological glitches and errors.

“Similar to any new technology, companies need to consider the return on investment from potential investments in these technologies,” Kejriwal added. “In addition, companies would benefit from understanding the flexibility and scalability of these technologies at various stages of use.”

While the use of VR and AR in retail commercial real estate development is still in its early stages, the potential benefits are clear: more immersive shopping experiences and new opportunities to attract and retain tenants. As the technology continues to evolve, we can expect to see even more innovative uses for VR and AR in retail commercial real estate development.

Dave Correia

Surabhi Kejriwal

OUR NEW LOOK REFLECTS OUR COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE TRUSTED ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS TO OUR CLIENTS.

Phase Engineering couples its small company culture with its large organization's principles and experience to help clients manage and overcome environmental risks and obstacles. Our new website and rebranding reflect an invigorating and bold vision for the future while emphasizing our core values. This vision for the future supports our commitment to be the trusted name in the industry providing comprehensive consulting services that support environmentally responsible growth.

SCOOP

Partners Development hires Courtney

Jeffrey as Development and Leasing Manager

Partners Development, the development platform of Partners Real Estate—one of the largest independent commercial real estate firms in Texas— announced that it has hired Courtney Jeffrey as Development and Leasing Manager.

In her new role, Mrs. Jeffrey will be responsible for managing the operational and leasing functions of Partners’ development projects. She will report directly to Carter Perrin, Partner and Managing Director of Partners Development.

“We’ve been fortunate to experience strong growth over the past year and Courtney’s experience in all facets of the development cycle will allow her to immediately impact our team. Her expertise and track record managing both midrise and high rise residential projects along with high-rise office buildings will be invaluable as we continue to execute on our growth strategy into new asset classes,” said Mr. Perrin. “We’re excited to have her on board and look forward to the impact she’ll make at Partners Development.”

Mrs. Jeffrey has 16 years of experience in management of development projects and has worked at a variety of notable development firms including Midway, Slate Real Estate Partners and RESIA. Prior to joining Partners, Courtney served as the Regional Development Manager for Houston and Austin at RESIA. There she established a presence in the Texas market for RESIA, a Miami-based multifamily developer, as they expanded across the United States.

Among Mrs. Jeffrey’s notable development projects include CITYCENTRE Three, Four, and Five, Kirby Grove, 803 Fannin and The McKinnley Memorial City.

1 BACREN March 2023 meeting.

2 Patrick Duffy at the Houston Forecast Summit.

3 Robert (Bill) Gilmer, Director, UH Bauer Institute for Regional Forecasting at C.T. Bauer College of Business, University of Houston, speaks at the Houston Forecast Summit.

4 BACREN March 2023 meeting.

5 Crowd at Neiman Marcus Exclusive Private Showing of Spring Fashions Crew Houston

6 April Daniel, REDnews - Faith Adobo - George Johnson Development - La Tosha Okoiron - Houston Land Company.

BROKERAGE FIRMS

CMI

BROKERAGE

820 Gessner, Suite 1525

Houston, TX 77024

P: 713.961.4666

Website: cmirealestate.com

Key Contacts: Trent Vacek, tvacek@cmirealestate.com; James Sinclair, jsinclair@cmirealestate.com

Services Provided: Central Management, Inc. is a full-service commercial real estate firm providing Brokerage Services; Property, Facility, Construction and Asset Management Services; Landlord and Tenant Representation; Land Sales; Receivership and Real Estate Recovery. Services are available for Industrial, Land, Multifamily, MOB, Office and Retail. Licensed in Oklahoma and Texas.

Company Profile: Central Management, Inc. (CMI) was founded by Houston real estate professional Vic Vacek in 1978. Our team understands the intricacies of the markets that offer investors an edge both from a leasing and an asset management perspective. Certified AMO® 1984, IREM, CPM, CCIM, NAR, HAR, NALP, ICSC, and TREC.

Notable Transactions/Clients: Armada Big Springs Ptnrs, Barbour Invts., Baytown ISD, Core Real Estate, Hoffpauir Estate, JLC Properties, KBR, Prudential, Rawson Blum & Leon, Subway, Texas Hearing Institute, Triple Crown Invts., US Oncology, Vigavi Realty, Walgreens.

DEVELOPERS

CENTERPOINT PROPERTIES

945 Bunker Hill, STE 625 Houston, TX 77024

P: 832.856.4779

Website: centerpoint.com

Key Contacts: Michael Murphy, Chief Development Officer, mmurphy@centerpoint.com; Brian McKiernan, Senior Vice President, bmckiernan@centerpoint.com

Services Provided: CenterPoint Properties is an innovator in the investment, development, and management of industrial real estate and multimodal transportation infrastructure. CenterPoint acquires, develops, redevelops, manages, leases, and sells state-of-the-art warehouse, distribution, and manufacturing facilities near major transportation nodes. Our experts focus on port-proximate distribution infrastructure assets near America's major population centers.

Company Profile: CenterPoint Properties continuously reimagines what’s possible by creating ingenious solutions to the most complex industrial property, logistics, and supply chain problems. With an agile team, substantial access to capital, and industry-leading expertise, we give customers a competitive edge to ensure their success — no matter how great the challenge.

ASSET/PROPERTY MANAGEMENT FIRMS

CENTERPOINT PROPERTIES

945 Bunker Hill, STE 625 Houston, TX 77024

P: 832.856.4779

Website: centerpoint.com

Key Contacts: Nate Rexroth, Executive Vice President, Asset Management; nrexroth@centerpoint.com; Danielle Radtke, Senior Vice President, Asset Management; dradtke@centerpoint.com

Services Provided: CenterPoint Properties is an innovator in the investment, development, and management of industrial real estate and multimodal transportation infrastructure. CenterPoint acquires, develops, redevelops, manages, leases, and sells state-of-the-art warehouse, distribution, and manufacturing facilities near major transportation nodes. Our experts focus on port-proximate distribution infrastructure assets near America's major population centers.

Company Profile: CenterPoint Properties continuously reimagines what’s possible by creating ingenious solutions to the most complex industrial property, logistics, and supply chain problems. With an agile team, substantial access to capital, and industry-leading expertise, we give customers a competitive edge to ensure their success — no matter how great the challenge.

CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES/GENERAL CONTRACTORS

ALSTON CONSTRUCTION COMPANY

HOU: 1300 W. Sam Houston Pkwy S

Suite 225, Houston, TX 77042

DAL: 10440 North Central Expressway

Suite 720, Dallas, TX 75231

Website: alstonco.com

Key Contact: HOU: Nick Dwyer, Director of Business Development, ndwyer@alstonco.com

DAL: Brittany Schneider, Director of Business Development, bschneider@alstonco.com

Services Provided: Alston offers a diverse background of design-build experience, general contracting and construction management of industrial, commercial, healthcare, retail, and municipal projects.

Company Profile: Alston Construction’s success begins and ends with our approach to planning, scheduling, and choosing the right team. We have been adhering to an open and collaborative approach since our founding more than 35 years ago.

Notable/Recent Projects: Innovation Ridge Logistics Park, a 1.1 million SF 3 building industrial business park in Forney; 610 Business District, a 388,795 SF industrial park located in Houston; 1.2 million SF logistics facility located in Conroe.

HIFFMAN NATIONAL

One Oakbrook Terrace, Suite 400 Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181

P: 833.HIFFMAN

Website: hiffman.com

Key Contacts: Dave Petersen, CEO, dpetersen@hiffman.com; Bob Assoian, Executive Managing Director of Management Services, bassoian@hiffman.com

Company Profile: Hiffman National is one of the US’s largest independent commercial real estate property management firms, providing institutional and private clients exceptional customized solutions for property management, project management, property accounting, lease administration, marketing, and research. The firm’s comprehensive property management platform and attentive approach to service contribute to successful life-long relationships and client satisfaction. As a nationally bestowed Top Workplace, and recognized CRE award winner, Hiffman National is headquartered in suburban Chicago, with more than 250 employees nationally and an additional six hub locations and 25 satellite offices across North America. For more information, visit hiffman.com

ARCHITECTS/DESIGN-BUILD FIRMS

KDS de stijl interiors, LLC

2006 E Cesar Chavez St. Austin, TX 78702

P: 512.457.1332

Website: kdsaustin.com

Key Contacts: Jill Laverentz, Owner, jill@kdsaustin.com; Clark Kampfe, Principal, clark@kdsaustin.com

Services Provided: Programming & Client Process Analysis – Due Diligence & Building

Analysis – Schematic Design – Test Fit & Pricing Notes – Project Scheduling Goals – Consultant

Team Formation – Cost Analysis & Value Engineering – Design Development – Construction

Documentation – Racking, Commodity, & Equipment Coordination – Permit Processing – Project Management – Construction Administration – Project Budgeting & Cost Tracking – As-Built

Documents

Company Profile: KDS is a full-service commercial design firm with 30+ years of experience including 25,000,000+ SF of Industrial/Flex and 3,000,000+ SF of Office Projects. We are committed to responsiveness and to providing well designed and implemented solutions. Our extensive knowledge base and adept management of critical milestones creates consistently successful projects.

Notable/Recent Projects: American Canning – Austin, TX – 101,000 SF –

Manufacturing & Distribution

FlightSafety International – TX & OK – 186,000 SF Combined – Manufacturing

GT Distributors – Pflugerville, TX – 58,000 SF – Retail, Office, Fabrication, Storage & Distribution

SUMMIT DESIGN + BUILD, LLC

98 San Jacinto Blvd, 4th Floor Austin, TX 78701

P: 512.872.6698

Website: summitdb.com

Key Contacts: Adam Miller, President, amiller@summitdb.com;

Doug Hayes, Project Executive, dhayes@summitdb.com; Amber Autumn, Business Development, aautumn@summitdb.com

Services Provided: Summit Design + Build, LLC is a provider of full service general contracting, construction management and design/ build construction services for the commercial, industrial, multifamily residential, office/tenant interiors, hospitality and institutional markets.

Company Profile: Located in downtown Austin and with offices in Tampa, FL, Chicago, IL and North Carolina, Summit Design + Build has been involved in the design and construction of over 400 buildings and spaces totaling more than 10 million square feet over the firm’s 18 year history.

Notable/Recently Completed Projects: Montage – 2323 S. Lamar (Multifamily), Congress Lofts at St. Elmo (Multifamily), UpCampus Student Housing Tallahassee (Multifamily), WeWork (Office TI), Eli’s Cheesecake (Industrial), Lockheed Martin (Industrial), Stadium Lofts North Carolina (Multifamily).

NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES

Houston, Texas • Redlands, California

A 360° A PPR O A C H T O ENV I RONMEN T A L SE R VICE S

National Environmental Services, with offices in Houston, Texas and Redlands, California, is an environmental consulting company, established in 1995, that conducts a full range of reliable and cost-effective environmental assessment and corrective services, with competitive pricing and convenient turnaround.

• Phase I Environmental Site Assessments (ASTM E1527-21)

•Transaction Screens (ASTM E1528-22)

• Asbestos & Lead-Based Paint Inspections (Licensed Texas Asbestos Consulting Agency)

• RSRAs (Records Search with Risk Assessments)

• Phase II Subsurface Investigations*

• Remediation and Corrective Activities*

• Soil, Water, and Air Testing Ser vices

• Indoor Air Quality/Mold Sur veys (Licensed Mold Consulting Agency)

• Underground Ground Storage Tank Testing Ser vices*

* Performed in Texas in partnership with Terrain Solutions, Inc., Texas Geoscience Firm Registration # 50018

National Environmental Services

5773 Woodway Dr, Suite 96, Houston, TX 77057: Phone (281) 888-5266

700 East Redlands Blvd, Suite U618, Redlands, CA 92373: Phone (951) 545-0250

Toll Free: (833) 4-Phase1

www.nationalenv.com • www.gabrielenv.com

2537 S. Gessner, Suite 126 Houston, TX 77063

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