The Fast Lane with Henry Turnbull

While we are all heartily sick of articles about Covid-19, it is timely to consider what might be some of the impacts on future travel patterns for Melbourne.

While it would be great if we were able to rid ourselves of the virus completely, this is most unlikely. Even with the administration of vaccines, we will still expect the virus to be around in some form or other for the foreseeable future.

During the pandemic, we have been constantly told to practice social distancing. The change in mindset resulting from the call for social distancing is likely to have significant long-term impacts on public transport use as commuters are going be to much less prepared to accept being jammed together during peak travel periods. The future design of public transport vehicles may well need to revert to the provision of more seated accommodation rather than tending to favour standing room as has occurred more recently.

It is significant that prior to the most recent lockdown, the use of public transport fell by more than 70% while the use of private motor vehicles fell initially, but then returned nearly to pre-Covid levels.

While public policy has been pushing for a reduction in the reliance on the motorcar, especially for commuter travel, the pandemic has changed the ground rules. Commuters feel safer in their car.

Henry Turnbull Consultant, Traffix Group

Similarly, we can expect to see an increase in bicycle use for commuting leading to an increased demand for end of trip facilities and a battle for road space. This is already happening in inner Melbourne.

It is reasonable to expect that there will be an overall reduction in commuter demands in the short-term as a result of people seeking to continue to work from home following the mandated work from home requirements. Many businesses and government departments have found that a portion of their work can be successfully done off-site. However, not all employees have found working from home an easy transition. There are many distractions and impediments to working from home but the improvement in the quality and availability of video meeting software together with the travel to work time savings for employees has somewhat offset the disadvantages. In particular, long distance commuters are attracted to the idea of working from home and will in many cases resist a return to daily office attendance.

It is likely that the post-Covid workplace will incorporate some working from home options where feasible. This might mean that instead of attending the office five days a week, an employee may only come in two or three days per week. In the longer term, working from home is likely to significantly impact on promotion and career opportunities so I expect that it will not be taken up universally.

So, what are the conclusions for future travel patterns that we might contemplate from our limited exposure to the pandemic so far?

I believe we will see:

• a continuing reliance on private car travel to work;

• an increased demand for parking in and around the CBD;

• a spread of travel times as commuters try to avoid excessively crowded public transport;

• a call for more seated accommodation in public transport;

• increased bicycle commuting and consequent demand for end of trip facilities; and,

• an increase in work at home arrangements in many administrative and professional service industries leading to a decrease in overall peak period commuter numbers, especially to the CBD from outer suburbs and regional centres.

Henry Turnbull is Principal Consultant at Traffix Group and a former President of VPELA